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MLB Trade Rumors: Still Independent After 17 Years

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Last month, this website celebrated its 17th birthday.  Wow, we’re getting old!  Shout out to those who were around for the “white text on a black background” days!

We’ve come a very long way in these 17 years.  The quality of our writers’ work is as strong as it has ever been.  Our team of writers worked very hard to process all the information coming out of the Winter Meetings and put it in proper context, including Xander Bogaerts signing late at night on Wednesday.

There are no corporate overlords here at MLBTR.  It’s still just owned by one guy, me.  That means I can continue to steer the direction of the site toward quality instead of sensationalism, traffic, and gambling.  We don’t play up rumors or information that we think is incorrect or exaggerated, and we’ve developed a strong sense for that.  It also means we can spend a lot of time producing work that I feel is essential but probably isn’t directly profitable, like our top 50 free agent list, our offseason outlook and review posts, and our arbitration projections.

If you love or respect this website and have been coming here for a while, we hope you’ll consider a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription.  Despite weathering the revenue loss of a pandemic and lockout in the last few years, we’ve kept the price steady at $2.99 per month or $29.89 per year.  We think it’s a great value for the benefits we’re providing: no ads on the site, exclusive articles delivered via email every week from Steve Adams and Anthony Franco, and weekly exclusive live chats with Anthony where you’re likely to get your question answered.  I’ve got plans to further expand these benefits in 2023, with no increase in price.  If you scroll to the bottom of this link, you can flip through a bunch of endorsements from real Front Office subscribers.

We hope you’ll check out Front Office, but regardless, we’re glad you’re here and we’re excited for our first normal offseason in quite a while!

Phillies Sign Trea Turner To 11-Year Contract

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Dec. 8: The Phillies have formally announced the signing.

Dec. 5: The Phillies and shortstop Trea Turner have agreed on a contract that will see him make $300MM over 11 years with a full no-trade clause. Turner is represented by CAA Sports.

Trea Turner

Turner, who turns 30 in June, had a huge breakout campaign in 2016 and has been one of the best all-around players in the game since then. He’s stolen at least 27 bases in each full season in that time, twice getting over 40. His career batting average is over .300. Though his power wasn’t as impressive earlier in his career, he has continued pushing that portion of his game upwards, getting over 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons. Ultimate Zone Rating isn’t enamored of his glovework, though Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both view him as a quality fielder at shortstop for his career.

Turner reached free agency this winter as part of the so-called “big four,” which also consists of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Based on his ability to help a team in all facets of his game, MLBTR predicted him to get a healthy contract of $268MM over eight years. That was the second highest guarantee predicted for the shortstops, behind the $288MM predicted for Correa. However, Correa is over a year younger than Turner and that prediction was spread over nine years instead of eight, meaning Turner was predicted for the highest average annual value at $33.5MM.

The actual contract that Turner has agreed to will take a much different shape than the prediction. His $300MM guarantee goes a bit beyond the $288MM mark, but with three extra years added on. That means Turner will turn 40 years old in the final season of the contract. This deal has some similarities to that of Bryce Harper, Turner’s former teammate with the Nationals who also signed with the Phillies. Harper set the record for the largest guarantee ever given to a free agent, a record he still holds, by signing for $330MM. However, he got to that guarantee over an extended 13-year stretch, an average annual value of just over $25MM per season that was well below other elite players who often get into the mid-30s. (Since that deal, the AAV record has been set at $43.33MM by Max Scherzer and tied earlier today by Justin Verlander. Among position players, Mike Trout has the record at $36MM.) Turner has followed Harper to Philadelphia and also agreed to a somewhat similar contract that prioritizes guarantee instead of salary, with Turner’s deal working out to just over $27MM per season. Turner will also be reunited with Kevin Long, who is the hitting coach in Philadelphia. Turner recently told Kiley McDaniel of ESPN that Long, who was Washington’s hitting coach from 2018 to 2021, that Long played a key role in his development as a hitter.

For the Phillies, they have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a long time now. They signed Didi Gregorius to take the job in 2020, and he performed well enough in that shortened campaign to return on a two-year deal. Unfortunately, that new contract went south real fast, with Gregorius eventually finishing 2021 with a line of .209/.270/.370 for a wRC+ of 69, indicating he was 31% below league average.

There was some speculation the Phils would pursue a shortstop last winter, as there was also a healthy class of free agents at that time, including Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien. The club eventually shied away from that group, going into 2022 with Gregorius in the final year of his contract and prospect Bryson Stott knocking on the door of the majors. Gregorius had another awful season in 2022, getting released in August. Stott struggled for a few months but did eventually find his footing in an encouraging way. At the end of May, he was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83.

The Phillies made it to the World Series in 2022, eventually falling to the Astros. They went into this winter motivated to upgrade for another run at the title in 2023 and were heavily connected to the “big four” shortstops. Having turned down on option on Jean Segura, they had an opening at second base and seemed intent on getting one of the big shortstop while kicking Stott over to the other side of the bag. Though they had some degree of interest in all four, it was reported last week that Turner was their top priority.

With this signing, the Phillies have made a splash that will have ripple effects around the rest of the league. The Dodgers, who acquired Turner from the Nats at the deadline in 2021, will now need to consider how to set their middle infield for next year. They are reportedly open to the idea of moving Gavin Lux from second base to short and sitting out the “big four” this winter. Whether that ultimates proves true or not will be revealed in time, but it doesn’t seem like Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson will have trouble finding their next employers. The Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox, Orioles and Mariners have been publicly linked to the shortstops in some way, with other clubs surely in the mix as well. Some of those teams were likely interested in Turner, though they will now have to proceed with one option off the board. Since Turner rejected a qualifying offer, the Dodgers will get an extra draft pick next year, with that pick pushed to after the fourth round on account of the Dodgers having paid the competitive balance tax. The Phils, also a CBT payor, will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and see their international bonus pool reduced by $1MM.

Though the Phils will have Turner and Stott up the middle, the rest of the infield is somewhat in flux. Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins could stay at third and first base, respectively, as they did in 2022. However, with Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and potentially missing the first half of the year, it’s been speculated that Bohm could move over to first, with Hoskins taking more time in the designated hitter slot while Edmundo Sosa takes over at the hot corner. Regardless of how they line it up in the field, Turner seems poised to add a speedy element to a Philadelphia lineup that skewed to the power side. Turner can, to some degree, make up for some of the production lost by not having Harper around for the first part of the year, with Harper then hopefully joining the club for the second half and postseason. Turner hit .298/.343/.466 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 128, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases along the way.

Financially, the deal will extend the commitments for the club far into the future. Due to both Harper and Turner signing such lengthy deals, the Phils already have two big contracts on the books for the 2031 season, when they are both likely to be less productive than they are now. Turner will still be on the ledger through 2033. However, for the short term, the lower AAV gives the Phils more wiggle room in 2023 when they are looking to capitalize while their competitive window is wide open. Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to be $206MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $218MM. The club paid the CBT in 2022 and seems poised to do so again, as they are now just about $15MM away from the $233MM threshold for 2023. Given that they are still looking to make upgrades to the pitching staff, they will likely end up on the other side of the line for a second straight year. The CBT features escalating penalties for repeat payors, meaning the Phils will pay a 30% tax on all spending over that line, with greater penalties if they go more than $20MM above.

It’s unsurprising that the Phils are being aggressive as they look get back to the World Series again in 2023. However, they will have no shortage of competition. Despite their strong postseason run, the club actually finished third in the division in 2022 behind the Mets and Braves. Those two clubs are still set up to be strong again going forward as Atlanta continues locking up all its young stars to lengthy extensions while the Mets are spending wildly in free agency. Turner’s deal is the second huge payout for the division today, as the Mets already signed Verlander to a two-year, $86.66MM deal to replace Jacob deGrom in their rotation. With many months still to go until Spring Training, the National League East is shaping up to be a fascinating battle again in 2023.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides were in agreement while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the specifics structure of the deal and the no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Opener: Shortstops, Astros, MLBTR Chat

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With a frenzied Winter Meetings in the rear-view mirror, here are some things we’ll be watching around baseball throughout the day:

1. After Bogaerts stunner, what’s next for the shortstop market?

Late last night, the Padres and Xander Bogaerts agreed to a massive 11-year, $280MM deal. While things seemed to be progressing toward a reunion between Bogaerts and the Red Sox as recently as yesterday afternoon, the Padres managed to pry away Boston’s longtime shortstop with a huge offer that runs through Bogaerts’ age-40 season, wildly surpassing even optimistic predictions; MLBTR predicted Bogaerts would receive a seven-year, $189MM deal. Such an expectation-shattering deal could certainly come with implications for the top remaining shortstops on the market, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. With Bogaerts approaching the $300MM mark, and fellow top shortstop Trea Turner reaching it, it seems reasonable to expect that Correa will surpass that benchmark. Swanson isn’t likely to push into that stratosphere, but he could also benefit and beat expectations — particularly given the wide breadth of teams still looking for a shortstop. The Cubs and Twins are both known to be in on both remaining shortstops, but they’re far from the only suitors, even with the Dodgers reportedly bowing out of the Correa market. The Giants are pursuing Correa after missing on Aaron Judge, while both the Red Sox and Cardinals have been linked to Swanson. However, both Boston and St. Louis made significant signings yesterday that could theoretically take them out of the inflated shortstop market: a deal with Willson Contreras for the Cardinals, and deals for both NPB star Masataka Yoshida and closer Kenley Jansen for the Red Sox.

2. Where will the Astros turn at catcher?

The aforementioned five-year, $87.5MM deal between Contreras and St. Louis leaves Houston in a difficult position, as they were the other main suitor for Contreras. The reigning World Series champs have a clear need at catcher, where Martin Maldonado and Korey Lee are the current tandem. The next-best free agent on the market, Christian Vazquez, has been clear about his desire to receive more playing time than he did following an August trade to Houston, where Maldonado remained the starter behind the plate even after Vazquez was accquired. This could leave the Astros pursuing cheaper options behind the plate, such as Tucker Barnhart, to whom they were recently connected. It’s also possible the Astros could dive into the trade market, where each of Sean Murphy, Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno have been discussed in trade scenarios by their respective teams. The Astros have already been connected to Murphy in recent days, though the acquisition cost could be exorbitant for a division rival. Whether the Astros pursue a lower-tier free agent or a trade for a younger catcher, they won’t be spending anything close to the $87.5MM guarantee Contreras landed with the Cardinals. Given that, it’s possible the Astros could reallocate any money they had set aside for Contreras to other parts of the roster, whether that means signing a pitcher after reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander departed for the Mets, or bolstering their outfield corps with an outfielder like Brandon Nimmo or Andrew Benintendi, as they have been rumored to have interest in doing.

3. MLBTR Chat with Anthony Franco today at 1pm CT

After the whirlwind of the Winter Meetings, do you have any burning questions about your favorite team’s offseason? If so, tune in at 1pm CT for a live chat MLBTR’s Anthony Franco, where he will be taking questions from readers. With so much having happened in the past few days and a few of the biggest free agents on the market yet to sign, there’s plenty to talk about! You can submit a question in advance, and use that same link to check back and participate live.

KBO’s Samsung Lions Re-Sign Three Players

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The Samsung Lions of the Korea Baseball Organization announced last night they’ve re-signed all three of their foreign-born players (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). Right-handers David Buchanan and Albert Suarez and outfielder José Pirela all inked new deals for the 2023 campaign.

All three players have prior MLB experience. Buchanan made 35 starts for the Phillies from 2014-15, posting a 5.01 ERA. He spent three seasons in Japan and has now played three years in South Korea, working to a 3.45 ERA or lower each year. Buchanan provided the Lions 160 frames of 3.04 ERA ball this past season. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted last night the 33-year-old righty was drawing some attention from MLB teams but decided to return to Daegu for a fourth season. He’ll make $1.6MM, according to the team announcement.

Suarez played for the Giants in 2016-17. He posted a 4.51 ERA in 115 2/3 innings for San Francisco. By 2019, he’d made the jump to Asia. Like Buchanan, he first went to Japan. After three seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, he signed with the Lions in 2022. His first season in the KBO was a resounding success, as he posted a 2.49 ERA over 173 2/3 innings while starting 29 of 30 outings. The Venezuelan-born righty will return for a second season on a $1.3MM salary.

Pirela, who’ll make $1.7MM, is the highest-paid of the trio. He also started in NPB before making the move to South Korea for the 2021 campaign. The right-handed hitter has played two seasons for the Lions, combining for an excellent .314/.384/.528 line in over 1200 plate appearances. That includes a massive .342/.411/.565 showing in 141 games this past season. A Venezuela native, the 33-year-old Pirela played in 302 MLB games between 2014-19. He suited up with the Yankees, Padres and Phillies and hit .257/.308/.392 in the majors.

Braves Acquire Joe Jimenez From Tigers

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The Tigers have announced they’ve traded reliever Joe Jimenez to the Braves for prospects Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jake Higginbotham. The Tigers will also send cash to the Braves.

Jimenez, 27, was a highly effective member of Detroit’s bullpen last season, tossing 56 2/3 innings of 3.49 ERA ball. Advanced metrics looked particularly favorably on Jimenez’ work, as his FIP sat at an even 2.00. The right hander struck out batters at a well above average 33.3% clip, while walking them just 5.6% of the time.

Originally signed out of Puerto Rico in 2013, Jimenez dominated the minor leagues on his way through the Tigers’ system, and was called up to make his big league debut in 2017. That year was a struggle for him, as he pitched to a 12.32 ERA in 19 innings. A .403 opponent BABIP certainly didn’t help there, and Jimenez would turn things around pretty quickly after that. His strikeout increased to 29.2% the following year, and Jimenez posted a 4.31 ERA over 62 2/3 innings, with a 2.90 FIP, earning a first trip to the All Star game that summer.

Like almost any reliever, Jimenez has had his ups and downs, and while 2018-19 saw him provide steady relief as a young arm in the Tigers’ pen, he had a rough couple of years thereafter. The shortened 2020 season saw Jimenez shelled for 2.8 home runs per nine innings, winding up with a 7.15 ERA. After experiencing a dip in strikeouts that year, he rebounded in that aspect a year later but saw his walk rate shoot up to 16.7% as he wound up with a 5.96 ERA. He looked dominant this year though, in what was easily his best year in the big leagues.

Jimenez will presumably slot into the back of the Braves’ bullpen. They’ve already got Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Collin McHugh and Dylan Lee as highly effective relief options, so Jimenez arms them with another weapon to use to close out games. Jimenez is arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter, and projected to take home a $2.6MM salary before hitting free agency next winter.

Turning over to the prospects the Tigers will receive, Malloy is the headline piece. He was the Braves’ sixth round pick in the 2021 draft, and made it as high as Triple-A in 2022, but spent most of the year below that. At Double-A, he hit .268/.403/.421 with six home runs in 238 plate appearances. Defensively, Malloy split time between third base and left field. He’s shot up the Braves’ prospect rankings since being drafted, and was their 6th best prospect on Baseball America’s recently released 2023 list. While their scouting report raises concerns over his defensive ability, the bat has plenty of promise, and he’s certainly hitting enough so far that he could be knocking on the door of the big leagues before long.

Higginbotham, 26, pitched 51 1/3 innings out of the bullpen at Double-A in 2022, posting a 4.73 ERA. Originally drafted in the 11th round back in 2018, Higginbotham’s posted a 3.30 ERA across four professional seasons in the Braves’ organization. He throws a mid-90s fastball, and mixes that with a sinker and curveball.

Photo credit: USA Today Sports.

Marlins Acquire Jake Mangum From Mets

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The Marlins have acquired minor league outfielder Jake Mangum from the Mets, tweets Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. He’s the player to be named later in the deal that sent Elieser Hernández and Jeff Brigham to Queens last month.

A college star at Mississippi State, Mangum hit .357/.420/.457 over four seasons in Starkville. A fourth-round senior sign in the 2019 draft, the switch-hitter has played three seasons in the New York farm system. He owns a .284/.346/.414 line in just under 900 professional plate appearances, including a .333/.365/.471 showing in 33 games for Triple-A Syracuse this year.

Mangum, 26, doesn’t bring much power to the table. Yet he puts the ball in play frequently and is capable of playing center field, giving him a chance to carve out a role as a fourth or fifth outfielder. Baseball America slotted him as the #28 prospect in the New York system entering the 2022 campaign.

Despite his decent minor league numbers, the Mets decided not to add Mangum to the 40-man roster to keep him from selection in the Rule 5 draft. He went unselected in that process this afternoon, and the Marlins acquired him within hours of ensuring they wouldn’t lose him in the Rule 5. He won’t require a 40-man roster spot in Miami, meaning he’ll provide the Fish some upper level non-roster depth.

Latest On Orioles’ Offseason Plans

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The Orioles have been linked to a number of free agents this winter, but so far their sole big league addition has been Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal. It seems likely there will be more moves to come for Baltimore as they look to supplement a young core that is starting to look like a contender, but Dan Connolly of The Athletic suggests it’s unlikely they’ll be handing out any long-term deals this winter. Connolly says the Orioles may look to stick more in the 2-3 year term, and while that may rule them out of a big splash, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relays information from general manager Mike Elias the team has made multi-year offers to free agent pitchers.

The Orioles did have reported interest in Jameson Taillon before he signed a four-year, $68MM deal with the Cubs, while they’ve also been reportedly interested in top remaining free agent starter Carlos Rodon, as well as Noah Syndergaard. Rodon looks set to a command five or six year deal, which looks to be outside Baltimore’s comfort levels, but it’s certainly possible to see them pursuing someone like Syndergaard on a shorter-term, but still multi-year pact. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $36MM deal for him, while the likes of Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha were both predicted to receive two-year deals which could fit in to Baltimore’s plan.

On the other side of the ball, it seems Elias is casting a wide net as he searches for upgrades. Jake Rill of MLB.com relays comments from Elias citing first base, designated hitter, the corner outfield and possibly second base as positions where the Orioles could have vacant playing time.

When asked about the prospect of adding left-handed hitters, Elias has this to say: “We are in talks with players that would be in the starting nine on Opening Day, or however you want to put it. I would view the probable additions at this point that we’re talking to and see out there as guys that will come in and kind of be on the same level as our other starters.”

The team did just add left-handed hitting outfielders Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero on minor league deals, and they could well compete for a spot on the big league roster during spring training. Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander currently project as the starting outfield, with Ryan McKenna on the bench. They also just claimed lefty hitting first baseman Lewin Diaz from the Pirates, so the O’s have not been shy in adding left-handed hitters so far.

While Mazara, Cordero and Diaz are all candidates to fill spots on the bench, it seems unlikely any of them would be in the starting nine on opening day if everyone is healthy. So if the Orioles may well seek further left-handed options and are looking to keep things to shorter-term deals, the likes of Joey Gallo, Dominic Smith or Brandon Belt could appeal.

As Kubatko tweets, a starter and a left handed bat appear the top priorities for the Orioles, but the team would also like to add a veteran reliever, as well as a backup catcher on a major league deal. Dillon Tate is currently the veteran in the Orioles’ bullpen with just over three years of service time, so it makes sense that they’d look for a more experienced arm to add to that group. On the catching front, Adley Rutschman is the only backstop on the 40-man roster.

So where does this leave Baltimore as far as payroll is concerned? Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com relays that Elias says payroll is expected to increase steadily over the coming seasons. That would be appear to be in line with the sort of additions the Orioles are looking to make over the coming months. Instead of making a big splash and committing long term dollars to a single player, the team looks likely to shop around for incremental additions to support their young core.

Twins Among Teams With Interest In Dansby Swanson

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The Twins recently chatted with Dansby Swanson via video conference, reports Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic. They’re one of a handful of teams in discussion with the longtime Brave, who’s one of the three top shortstops remaining in free agency.

Minnesota is one of a handful of teams that has been involved in the market. Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports the Cubs, Cardinals and Red Sox have joined the Twins in showing significant interest this offseason (Twitter link). The incumbent Braves have also publicly maintained they’d like to keep Swanson.

There’s still a fair bit of uncertainty in Swanson’s market, as he’s not the primary target of either Minnesota or Boston. The Twins continue to prioritize Carlos Correa, although there’s also a chance they’re outbid by a bigger spender. The Dodgers are reportedly uninterested in Correa, but the Giants loom as a major threat after missing out on Aaron Judge. San Francisco still has plenty of spending capacity after Judge declined their offer in the $360MM range, and Correa has been reported as their favorite of the top-tier shortstops available. The Twins have been linked to both Bogaerts and now Swanson as potential fallback options in the event they lose the bidding for Correa.

Swanson’s surely a secondary option for the Red Sox as well. Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has called Bogaerts their top priority on a number of occasions, and reports this morning suggested there was growing momentum in talks between the Sox and their longtime shortstop. So long as no deal is in place, the Red Sox are a viable fit for Swanson. If they do retain Bogaerts, he’d pair with Trevor Story in the middle infield and almost certainly rule out a Swanson pickup.

It looks unlikely the Cardinals will remain in the top of the shortstop market moving forward. St. Louis agreed to terms with top free agent backstop Willson Contreras this morning. That obviously doesn’t present a positional logjam for Swanson, but it adds a reported five-year, $87.5MM contract to the books. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested earlier this week the Cards were unlikely to pursue the top shortstops unless they acquired their catcher more affordably via trade. A significant free agent deal for Contreras seems likely to leave the Cards to rely on Tommy Edman and some combination of Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman up the middle.

The Cubs are a stronger fit for Swanson. They’re not attempting to retain an in-house free agent shortstop as Minnesota and Boston are. Chicago has Nico Hoerner as a franchise building block, but he’s already expressed a willingness to kick over to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. The Cubs have already met with each of Correa, Bogaerts and Swanson and could make sense for any of that trio. Yet with the strong interest Correa and Bogaerts are seemingly drawing from other clubs, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this afternoon the Cubs view Swanson as a more realistic target.

Swanson’s going to command a significant deal in his own right, of course. He won the NL Gold Glove award at shortstop in 2022, and he’s coming off arguably the best offensive season of his career. The 28-year-old (29 in February) hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs while suiting up in all 162 games. He made the no-brainer decision to decline a qualifying offer, meaning any signing team would have to forfeit a draft choice to bring him in. MLBTR predicted Swanson to land a seven-year, $154MM deal at the opening of the offseason.

Manfred: Angels Hoping To Complete Sales Process By Opening Day

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The Angels have been in a period of some uncertainty since this past summer, when owner Arte Moreno announced he was exploring a sale of the franchise. There haven’t been many substantive updates on the process since then, and the timing of the potential sale has remained unclear.

At a press conference at this week’s Winter Meetings, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred stated the Halos are hopeful of having a sale finalized by Opening Day. “The point at which people actually see financial information is an important step forward in the process. My understanding is that the club would like to have the sale resolved before Opening Day,” Manfred told reporters (link via Evan Drellich of the Athletic). “Whether that happens I think depends in part on the bidding process and how quickly you can get documents done.”

Moreno has owned the franchise since 2003, when he purchased it from the Disney corporation on the heels of a World Series win. They’ve not won a pennant in the Moreno era, only making the ALCS once in 2009. Moreno has consistently signed off on payrolls that place the team within the top ten, but he’s drawn a fair bit of criticism among the fanbase for taking an active role in baseball operations decisions.

Precisely how much payroll room Moreno would allot the front office this offseason as he explores sale options was an open question. To his credit, he’s allowed general manager Perry Minasian and company to strike for upgrades to each area of the roster in the early going. The Halos brought in Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez via free agency while acquiring Hunter Renfroe and Gio Urshela in trade. None of those acquisitions was over an especially long term, with Anderson’s three-year deal the only commitment beyond 2024. Yet they did add an estimated $40MM to the 2023 payroll on those four players.

The acquisitions bring Anaheim’s 2023 payroll projection up to $198MM, in the estimation of Roster Resource. They’re just above $212MM in projected luxury tax obligations, leaving them around $20MM shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. Minasian told reporters this morning the Halos could conceivably push spending into luxury tax territory, saying there’s no ownership mandate to stay under the threshold (via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register).

Anaheim hasn’t gotten into CBT territory since 2004. Pushing into that realm in 2023 would be unfamiliar for the franchise, but they’re headed into their final season of club control over Shohei Ohtani and amidst an eight-year playoff drought. The Halos still have some uncertainty in the middle infield and behind the plate, and they could look into bullpen upgrades even after inking Estévez to a two-year contract.

Mets Sign Justin Verlander

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The Mets have officially signed the defending AL Cy Young winner, announcing Wednesday evening they’ve inked Justin Verlander to a two-year contract with a vesting option for 2025. It’s reportedly an $86.66MM guarantee, and if Verlander pitches 140 innings in 2024, he will have a $35MM player option for 2025. Verlander will make $43.33MM in each of the two guaranteed years of the deal and has a full no-trade clause. Verlander is represented by ISE Baseball.

Verlander was one of the most unique free agents in modern baseball, given his unusual circumstances. He made just one start in 2020 and missed all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, after which he reached free agency. At that point, he had essentially missed two full years and was going into his age-39 season. However, he won the American League Cy Young award when he was last healthy in 2019.

Despite the long layoff, Verlander had plenty of interest based on his previous track record and a spring showcase that demonstrated his health to interested teams. He eventually re-signed with the Astros on a one-year, $25MM deal with a matching $25MM player option for 2023 on the condition that Verlander reached 130 innings pitched this year. Not only did Verlander breeze past that marker, he added yet another excellent campaign to his lengthy track record. He tossed 175 innings, making a brief trip to the injured list for a calf injury. He posted a miniscule 1.75 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 37.9% ground ball rate, earning his third career Cy Young award. Based on that excellent campaign, he made the easy decision to decline his option and return to the open market in search of a larger salary. He was not eligible for a qualifying offer due to the fact that he had already received one previously in his career.

This created a free agency that was essentially unprecedented. It’s extremely rare for pitchers to pitch so well this late into their careers, especially after such a lengthy layoff. With Verlander about to turn 40 in February, he was never going to get an incredibly lengthy deal. However, he has previously expressed a desire to pitch into his mid-4os, meaning he could conceivably seek to get a multi-year deal of some kind. The closest reasonable comparison was Max Scherzer, who signed a three-year, $130MM deal to join the Mets a year ago, when he was going into his age-37 season. That came with a $43.33MM annual average value that smashed the previous record of $36MM, which was held by Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole.

Verlander is a few years older now than Scherzer was then, but the AAV was still seemingly a rough signpost for Verlander to aim for. Astros’ owner Jim Crane intimated that Verlander was using the Scherzer deal as a target in free agency, which was apparently beyond their comfort zone. For the Mets, their rotation was significantly impacted by free agency, as Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all his the open market. deGrom is already off the board, having signed with the Rangers in recent days. But they have quickly pivoted and replaced him with Verlander, who will now take deGrom’s spot as the co-ace next to Scherzer. He has reached his target by matching Scherzer with an AAV of $43.34MM, tying the all-time record. MLBTR predicted Verlander to get a three-year deal worth $120MM, an AAV of $40MM. He has instead secured the higher AAV on a shorter deal, though if he ends up triggering the option, he will get to $121.66MM over the three seasons. This is a reunion for Verlander and Scherzer, who were teammates in Detroit from 2010 to 2014.

For the Astros, they have been incredibly aggressive this winter but it seems their priorities have been elsewhere. Even without Verlander, the rotation is in good shape with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown all present as solid options. Since they apparently didn’t see eye-to-eye with Verlander, they have dedicated their resources to re-signing reliever Rafael Montero and then signing first baseman José Abreu.

The Mets have become a financial powerhouse in recent years, with new owner Steve Cohen willing to spend at or near the top of the market in order to bolster the club’s roster. Last year, they ran out an Opening Day payroll of $264MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are now set to go into 2023 with Verlander and Scherzer combining for over $86MM alone, well beyond the entire payrolls of some entire teams. Roster Resource now estimates the Mets’ payroll for next year to be $277MM, though perhaps more importantly their luxury tax estimate is $289MM. The lowest threshold of the competitive balance tax in 2023 will be $233MM, with three further tiers at $253MM, $273MM and $293MM, with the Mets now just barely under the top line. Since the Mets also paid the CBT in 2022, they will be a second-time payor in 2023 and subject to increasing penalties. All spending over the lowest threshold is subject to a 30% tax for them, with extra surcharges at each subsequent tier: 12%, 45% and 60%. In other words, any spending over the $293MM tier will be subject to a 90% tax. Since they are still looking to upgrade their pitching staff and outfield, it seems almost certain that they will indeed go beyond that line.

All of that spending helped the Mets field a strong team in 2022, winning 101 games. Though that was the second-highest total in franchise history, they still were nudged into Wild Card status by the Braves. The Mets ended up with a bitter first-round defeat, losing their best-of-three series to the Padres. They are now seemingly planning to spend aggressively yet again and hope for better results in 2023. Verlander and Scherzer will take the top two spots in the rotation, with Carlos Carrasco behind them. That still leaves two spots available, with internal options like David Peterson and Tylor Megill candidates for those roles. However, the Mets still have a few months remaining in the offseason to make further moves.

Verlander was one of three pitchers considered to be the aces of this winter’s free agency, alongside deGrom and Carlos Rodón. The Mets lost deGrom to the Rangers but have now replaced him with Verlander. For teams still looking to add to the front of their rotation, they will now have to pivot for Rodon, who is reportedly looking for a six-year deal.

Former ball player Carlos Baerga reported last night on Instagram that the Mets and Verlander were nearing agreement on a two-year deal plus an option. Andy Martino of SNY reported today that an agreement was in place for a two-year deal with a vesting option, with the AAV of the deal near Scherzer’s. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported Verlander will make $43.3MM in each season, as well as the no-trade clause and the option value of $35MM. Heyman later added the 140 innings required to vest the player option. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the AAV is actually $43.33, matching Scherzer’s exactly.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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