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D-Backs’ Outfielders Drawing Widespread Trade Interest

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The Diamondbacks have an interesting stockpile of upper level outfielders from which they’re largely expected to deal. General manager Mike Hazen and his staff have long signaled a willingness to field offers to upgrade other areas of the roster and they’re unsurprisingly drawing attention from a host of teams.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports roughly 10 clubs have been in touch with Hazen and company regarding at least one of the team’s outfielders. Piecoro lists the Yankees, Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as clubs with interest, while both Piecoro and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle report the Astros are in the mix.

Arizona has a number of players that could draw interest, and it stands to reason different teams have varied preferences on the group. Corbin Carroll is arguably the top prospect in baseball, and both Piecoro and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic have suggested recently he’s off the table in trade discussions. Carroll’s presence gives the Snakes a potential franchise center fielder, though, freeing them up to listen to offers on their other outfielders.

Daulton Varsho is the most established of the group, and he’d be the toughest to pry from the desert. The 26-year-old got off to a slow start offensively in the majors, but he broke through in his third season. Varsho connected on 27 home runs with a .235/.302/.443 line across 592 plate appearances in 2022. That’s slightly better than average production at the plate, and he offers immense value in other areas. Varsho stole 16 bases (albeit with six failed attempts as well), and he has emerged as one of the game’s best defensive outfielders.

Also an intermittent catcher at times in his career, he’s acclimated to outfield work incredibly well. Varsho’s an above-average runner, and Statcast credits him with elite reads off the bat. By its Outs Above Average metric, Varsho made an estimated 18 more plays than expected in his 920 1/3 innings between center and right field this year. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him a combined 19 runs above par, with both metrics grading him highly in both center and the corner outfield. Varsho doesn’t have a great throwing arm — part of the reason he’s increasingly moved off catcher in the first place — but he’s an athletic, rangy defender who can cover anywhere in the outfield and occasionally factor in at catcher if needed.

Varsho qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an affordable $2.8MM salary, and he comes with four remaining seasons of club control. Between the all-around production and affordable window of control, the trade appeal with Varsho is immense.

That’s not true to the same extent for the Snakes’ other outfielders, but there’s still a fair amount of appeal. Jake McCarthy is a former supplemental first-round draftee, but most prospect evaluators believed he’d be better suited for fourth outfield duty. While that may wind up being the case, the 25-year-old outperformed that projection in 354 plate appearances this past season. McCarthy hit .283/.342/.427 with eight home runs and stole 23 bases on just 26 tries. His average exit velocity and hard contact percentage are a bit below-average, and the offensive profile was propped up by a .349 batting average on balls in play. The Virginia product is an excellent baserunner who’s athletic enough to cover all three outfield spots, though, and he generally has a solid offensive track record in the minors. McCarthy still hasn’t reached a full year of service time and is controllable through 2028.

Alek Thomas offers a similar profile but is a different story, in that he’s been a top prospect who has yet to find much MLB success. The sport’s #32 prospect heading into 2022 according to Baseball America, Thomas debuted in May. He spent most of the year as their primary center fielder but struggled, hitting .231/.275/.344 through 411 plate appearances. He didn’t draw many walks or drive the ball with much authority, and the tough line led to a demotion back to Triple-A at the end of the season. Thomas won’t turn 23 until next April and is a career .313/.389/.499 hitter in the minor leagues, though. He’s regarded as a potential plus defensive center fielder with strong contact skills. Like McCarthy, he has yet to reach even one year of MLB service.

The trio of Varsho, McCarthy and Thomas is certain to draw the most trade interest, but Arizona also has Pavin Smith and Dominic Fletcher as depth options on the 40-man roster. Smith hasn’t done much at the MLB level but is a former top ten pick. Fletcher is a .296/.358/.467 hitter in the minors and was added to the 40-man at the end of the season to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. A trade involving either player wouldn’t be as significant as a move involving their top trio, but it’s possible the Snakes find some interest in both.

The extended windows of club control for each of McCarthy, Varsho and Thomas could make them of interest to teams at varying levels of the competitive cycle. That’s highlighted in the wide array of clubs that have checked in with Arizona. Milwaukee, Houston, Toronto, the White Sox and the Yankees are all win-now teams known to be looking for ways to plug a gap in center and/or a corner outfield spot. Houston is known to be in search of a left-handed bat, in particular.

Miami is behind that quintet from a competitive perspective. Still, the Fish are hoping to improve their offense to take a step forward in 2023, likely by subtracting from their enviable rotation depth. The Marlins are without an obvious center fielder on their MLB roster at present, with players like Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and JJ Bleday stretched there defensively. Miami and the D-Backs have linked up on a swap of young players before with the Jazz Chisholm/Zac Gallen deal, although that was orchestrated by the previous Marlins front office.

Oakland and Cincinnati are firmly amidst rebuilds, making them somewhat surprising fits at first glance. Yet the opportunity to acquire a pre-arbitration key piece at least opens the door for teams that are more traditionally “sellers” to gauge the market. A’s GM David Forst told reporters this week that acquiring players at or near the majors is “at the top of our to-do list” (via Melissa Lockard of the Athletic). Reds GM Nick Krall similarly indicated at the GM Meetings the team was considering trade possibilities involving prospects or “lower cost, more controllable players in the big leagues” (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

There are a number of ways the discussions could go, but it seems clear Arizona would want MLB-ready talent in return. Hazen flatly rejected the notion of trading any of their outfielders solely for prospects last month, and Piecoro writes they could look for infield or catching help in discussions — with particular emphasis on adding some right-handed punch to the lineup.

J.P. Feyereisen Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Rays reliever J.P. Feyereisen underwent surgery to repair the rotator cuff and labrum in his shoulder yesterday, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. He’ll be shut down from throwing for at least four months, meaning he’s certain to begin the 2023 campaign on the injured list.

Shoulder issues have plagued Feyereisen dating back to the early summer. He landed on the IL in early June with what was initially diagnosed as an impingement, then battled renewed discomfort while attempting to rehab in early September. He was shut down for the 2022 season, and that unfortunately didn’t keep him from needing to go under the knife.

With a four-month shutdown coming out of surgery, Feyereisen will not have picked up a ball by the time the regular season gets underway. Even in the most optimistic scenario, he’ll need weeks from that point forward to gradually build back strength and work his way into game shape before he can head out on a minor league rehab assignment. He’s likely to miss multiple months, with Topkin suggesting the injury could keep him out of action until after the All-Star Break.

It’s a tough blow to the Rays’ bullpen, as Feyereisen has quietly been a dominant middle-innings arm for skipper Kevin Cash. Acquired from the Brewers alongside Drew Rasmussen in the 2021 blockbuster that landed Willy Adames in Milwaukee, the right-hander has provided 61 innings of 1.48 ERA ball in a Tampa Bay uniform. He didn’t allow a single earned run in 22 appearances totaling 24 1/3 frames this past season, and while he surely wouldn’t have maintained that pace over a full season, he posted excellent underlying marks. Feyereisen struck out 29.1% of opponents while walking a meager 5.8% of batters faced, generating swinging strikes on a massive 16.4% of his total pitches.

Feyereisen turns 30 in February. He has over two years of major league service time, and he won’t reach arbitration until the end of next season. He’ll collect service time and a salary around the MLB minimum while rehabbing. Feyereisen will remain on the Rays’ 40-man roster throughout the winter, but they can clear a spot at the start of Spring Training by placing him on the 60-day IL.

Brewers Interested In Catching Upgrades

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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold says that the club is looking to improve behind the plate, per Curt Hugg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. When asked if they were more likely to pursue trades or free agents in that department, Arnold said it’s “hard to handicap.”

The Brewers used a fairly even time split behind the plate in 2022, with Victor Caratini getting 73 starts and Omar Narvaez getting 80. That’s becoming more standard practice around the league, as few teams want to wear down their best catchers by having them crouching behind the plate every day for years and years. Caratini is still on the roster but Narvaez reached free agency at the end of the 2022 season.

The club already made one move to bolster their depth at the position this offseason, acquiring Payton Henry from the Marlins. However, Henry only has 20 MLB games under his belt so far and didn’t play much in the minors this year either due to thumb surgery. He still has options and so it’s fairly sensible for the club to look for a second major league catcher to pair with Caratini and bump Henry down the depth chart and into the minors.

In terms of the free agent market, the top option is now off the board with Willson Contreras agreeing to a deal with the Cardinals for $87.5MM over five years. The Brewers were never really going to be shopping in that aisle, since they’ve been actually trying to trim costs around the edges of their payroll this winter. Their trade of Kolten Wong was a cash-neutral deal, but the Brewers have moved Hunter Renfroe and his projected $11.2MM arbitration salary and let Brent Suter and Brad Boxberger depart for some modest savings. Their payroll for 2023 currently sits at $116MM, per Roster Resource, about $16MM shy of last year’s $132MM Opening Day figure, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

The Brewers might want to dedicate some resources to other parts of their roster, such as their outfield or bullpen, but there should be room for a catching addition if that’s their priority. The top free agent remaining is generally considered to be Christian Vazquez, but he seems to have wide interest, having been connected to the Twins, Red Sox, Padres, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Giants and Cubs in recent weeks.

If the Brewers don’t want to go hard on Vazquez, the other options in free agency include bringing back Narvaez, as well as glove-first options like Roberto Perez, Tucker Barnhart and Austin Hedges. There’s also slugger Gary Sanchez, as well as wild card Mike Zunino who missed most of 2022 due to surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. None of those options would break the bank but they’re also all imperfect in one way or another.

If they opt for the trade route, the most prominent candidates in that department are Sean Murphy of the A’s and Danny Jansen of the Blue Jays. Both are projected for modest arbitration salaries, with Murphy at $3.5MM and Jansen at $3.7MM. The greater cost would likely be what is required to send the other way in a trade. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has been writing about the catching market recently and had one executive describe the asking prices in those discussions as high “like the moon.” The A’s apparently asked for outfielder Lars Nootbaar, infielder Brendan Donovan and Gordon Graceffo in their Murphy talks. The Jays also wanted Nootbaar in the Jansen dealings and also discussed Ryan Helsley, per Goold.

Those lunar asking prices were what caused the Cardinals to turn their backs on the trade market and just spend the money required to land Contreras, though there was also the draft pick compensation since Contreras rejected a qualifying offer. The Brewers generally aren’t shy about making deals, having traded away Wong, Renfroe and Josh Hader just in the past few months.

However, meeting Oakland or Toronto on their level would likely require further subtracting from their major league roster or dipping into a farm system that isn’t especially well regarded. FanGraphs currently considers their system to be 16th, with Baseball America placing them 13th and MLB Pipeline 19th. Those are obviously middle-of-the-pack placements, but many of their top prospects seem to be in the club’s plans for 2023.

The Wong trade, for instance, was something they could consider because of the possibility of Brice Turang stepping up and taking over the second base job. Renfroe was perhaps deemed expendable because of outfield prospects like Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell. If the club is hoping for those players to step in and help at the major league level in 2023, that will make them reluctant to include them in trades. The system’s top prospect is generally considered to be Jackson Chourio, who is still not close to the majors but generally considered to be pretty close to untouchable since he’s shot up prospect lists and considered to be one of the best youngsters in the world. If that’s how things are viewed within the Milwaukee front office, they might also find it difficult to line up on a deal.

Latest On Sean Murphy

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Athletics catcher Sean Murphy is among the most popular players on the trade market, due both to his general excellence as a well-rounded catcher and to the dearth of high-end catching talent in a market where several teams are looking for upgrades at the position. To this point, he’s been linked to the D-backs, Astros, Cubs, Guardians, Twins, Braves, Rays and Red Sox in the past three to four weeks. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle adds the Giants to list of teams that have called Oakland regarding Murphy, though an upgrade at catcher isn’t currently atop San Francisco’s priority list as they still hope to reel in a top-of-the-market free agent such as Carlos Correa.

The Cardinals were considered one of Murphy’s most prominent suitors before yesterday’s five-year agreement with Willson Contreras, and it seems that Oakland’s sky-high asking price on Murphy prompted St. Louis to instead pivot to the free-agent market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier in the week that the A’s were seeking controllable, MLB-ready players in return for Murphy, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shines some further light on the type of return Oakland is seeking. Per Goold, the Athletics’ ask in talks with the Cardinals included outfielder Lars Nootbaar, third-place Rookie of the Year finisher Brendan Donovan, and a near-MLB pitching prospect such as Gordon Graceffo.

It’s a hefty asking price, to be sure, as both Nootbaar and Donovan burst onto the scene in 2022 and staked a claim to regular roles with the Cardinals. Nootbaar finished out the season with a .228/.340/.448 batting line (125 wRC+), and he was particularly effective in the season’s final two months, once he was finally able to settle into an everyday role (as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored in September). Nootbaar made the most of his opportunity as the primary right fielder in St. Louis, slashing .246/.371/.492 with 10 homers, 12 doubles and three triples in his final 240 plate appearances. He’s controllable through 2027.

Donovan is similarly interesting, even though the manner in which he delivers value is completely different. Also 25, Donovan played all four infield positions and both outfield corners this season, generally delivering quality defense at each spot — hence this year’s Gold Glove Award. He batted .281/.394/.379, showing minimal power but also a keen feel for the strike zone, evidenced by a 12.8% walk rate and an excellent 15% strikeout rate. He’s controlled a year longer than Nootbaar, all the way through the 2028 season. As for Graceffo, he’s currently ranked as baseball’s No. 66 prospect at Baseball America, No. 78 at FanGraphs and No. 79 at MLB.com.

Suffice it to say, it’s a massive haul for the A’s to seek and a justifiable one for the Cardinals to walk away from, no matter how excellent Murphy is. Focusing in on the Cardinals aspect is generally a moot point now, though. With Contreras signing on through the 2027 season, St. Louis is no longer in the running.

Still, the asking price from one prominent suitor is instructive when trying to plot out what the A’s could seek from other clubs. Every valuation is different, of course, but teams looking into Murphy could very well need to part with multiple MLB-ready talents who have longer-reaching club control than the remaining three years the A’s hold over Murphy. General manager David Forst said this week that the A’s aren’t necessarily closed off to receiving lower-level players but stressed that adding players who have reached or could reach the Majors in 2023 — whether in a Murphy trade or other transactions — is at the “top of our to-do list” (link via Melissa Lockard of The Athletic).

Marlins, Austin Allen Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Marlins have agreed to a minor league contract with catcher Austin Allen, as first indicated on the team’s transactions log at MLB.com. The former Padres and Athletics backstop will presumably vie for a roster spot in Spring Training with the Fish.

Allen, 29 next month, was a fourth-round pick of the Padres in 2015 who went from San Diego to Oakland as part of 2019’s Jurickson Profar trade. Baseball America ranked him 16th among San Diego farmhands at the time of the swap and 11th among A’s prospects a year later, but despite consistently impressing in Triple-A (.314/.365/.583 in 820 plate appearances), Allen has never gotten much of a look in the big leagues. Suspect glovework appears to be the primary reason, as he’s long been touted as a bat-first player with plenty of concerns regarding his ability to stay behind the plate. Allen has spent increased time at first base and designated hitter in recent seasons but remained productive in the upper minors.

Chances at the MLB level were sparse for Allen, particularly in Oakland, where standout Sean Murphy understandably logged the lion’s share of playing time and more defensive-minded players have typically served as his backup. Allen never received more than 35 plate appearances in a season with Oakland and saw only a career-high 71 during his debut campaign with San Diego. In 127 MLB plate appearances, he’s a .195/.252/.288 hitter.

There’s little doubting Allen’s power, however. He’s had four seasons in the minors with between 20 and 22 home runs, despite never topping 121 games played in any of those years. And, while he’s fanned at a troubling 37% clip in his small sample of MLB action, his 20.4% mark in a larger sample of Triple-A plate appearances is less concerning.

Allen is out of minor league options, so if he makes the Marlins’ roster at any point, he won’t be able to be sent back to Triple-A without first clearing waivers. He’s likely a depth signing behind Jacob Stallings and Nick Fortes, but Miami is fairly thin at catcher in the upper minors, so Allen could be the top option in the event of an injury. Of course, subsequent offseason additions, be they Major League acquisitions or further non-roster pickups, could see Allen pushed down the depth chart a bit.

Dodgers Sign Jason Heyward To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers announced Thursday that they’ve signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training.

The Cubs released Heyward earlier this offseason. He’d been slated to head into the 2023 campaign in the final season of his eight-year, $184MM deal signed prior to the 2016 campaign. Chicago remains on the hook for the bulk of Heyward’s $22MM salary in 2023, and the Dodgers will only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on their Major League roster or injured list. That sum would be subtracted from the $22MM owed by the Cubs.

Heyward, still just 33, spent seven seasons with the Cubs but struggled to live up to the expectations of that contract. After hitting .293/.359/.439 with all-world defense in his lone season as a Cardinal prior to reaching the open market, Heyward hit just .230/.306/.325 in the first season of his eight-year deal. The Cubs won the World Series that year, with the final victory famously preceded by a spirited clubhouse speech from Heyward during a rain delay. That makes for a good anecdote but ultimately does little to overshadow a generally underwhelming tenure with the Cubs.

Heyward posted above-average offensive numbers with the Cubs only in the 2019 season and in the shortened 2020 campaign, when he combined for a .255/.355/.435 output in 770 plate appearances. That solid run was bookended by a total of five sub-par seasons at the plate, though, and Heyward’s final batting line as a member of the Cubs clocked in at just .245/.323/.377. He provided plus defense, value on the bases and was clearly an important figure in the clubhouse, but there’s no getting around the fact that the contract didn’t pan out anywhere close to how either party hoped. By measure of wins above replacement, Heyward gave the Cardinals nearly as much value in 2015 (5.6 fWAR, 6.8 bWAR) as he gave the Cubs over a seven-year period from 2016-22 (8.2 fWAR, 8.9 bWAR).

The Dodgers will hope that a change of scenery, some different coaching and some input from a different data/analytics team might be able to help Heyward tap into some semblance of his old self. Righting this ship will be a tall order, as Heyward’s once-elite defensive grades have dwindled down to nearly average. Heyward still possesses a strong arm, but he was never a burner in the first place and Statcast ranked his 2022 sprint speed in the 44th percentile of big leaguers.

Heyward won’t be guaranteed anything more than an opportunity with the Dodgers, who’ll be able to cut him loose at any point in camp if they wish to allocate his Cactus League at-bats to younger options. That said, there’s at least some degree of an opportunity for him, at least as things currently stand with the L.A. roster. Having non-tendered Cody Bellinger and lost Trea Turner to the Phillies via free agency, the Dodgers currently have some unsettled spots in the lineup. For now, Chris Taylor seems likely to move from left field to second base, with Gavin Lux sliding to shortstop. That creates some more fluidity in an outfield mix that right now might contain both Trayce Thompson and 25-year-old rookie James Outman.

There will certainly be more moves on the horizon for the Dodgers, whether they pivot and make a play for Dansby Swanson at shortstop — they’re reportedly not pursuing Carlos Correa — or whether they bring in some new talent to deepen the outfield mix. Any subsequent additions could serve to further limit Heyward’s chances, but there’s little harm in bringing him to camp this spring and seeing if they can conjure up yet another successful reclamation project.

Young: Rangers Still Exploring Rotation, Left Field Markets

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Since the 2022 season drew to a close, the Rangers have acquired or re-signed four starting pitchers, beginning with Martin Perez’s acceptance of a $19.65MM qualifying offer and following with a trade for Jake Odorizzi (and $10MM to help cover the bulk of his $12.5MM salary). Subsequent signings of two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM) and left-hander Andrew Heaney (two years, $25MM with an opt-out and a heavy slate of incentives) followed over the past week. That quartet can now join last winter’s top rotation signee, Jon Gray, in rounding out the rotation.

Or so it would seem. Rangers general manager Chris Young told reporters that even after that frenzied slate of additions, he’s still on the lookout for more starting pitching talent (link via MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry). Young stopped short of declaring that he intends to continue playing at the top of the rotation market but referenced the timeless adage of never having “too much” pitching in vowing to continue his efforts to improve the club.

Texas is hardly without any depth beyond that top five. Right-hander Dane Dunning, in fact, could potentially be squeezed out of the starting mix despite giving the Rangers 271 quite serviceable innings over the past two seasons: 4.48 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 21.2% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate, 53.6% ground-ball rate, 1.10 HR/9. Dunning has a pair of minor league option years remaining.

Picking up some additional depth, even if it’s on minor league deals, would better position the Rangers to get through a 162-game marathon. And, as they’ve shown repeatedly in the past two offseasons, they probably shouldn’t be ruled out on a more impactful splash. To that end, it’s worth reminding that the Rangersreportedly met with Carlos Rodon even after signing deGrom — although that meeting came before signing Heaney.

More directly, Young plainly stated a desire to explore the market for left fielders. He also expressed confidence in both his catching corps and infield mix. The Rangers will look to Mitch Garver, Jonah Heim and Sam Huff as options behind the dish in 2023, while the infield features Nathaniel Lowe at first base, Marcus Semien at second and Corey Seager at shortstop. Top prospect Josh Jung is the heir-apparent at third base, but the Rangers have fellow prospects Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith, plus utilitymen Brad Miller and Mark Mathias as depth options.

In left field, things are far less certain. Adolis Garcia is the clear everyday option in right, and Leody Taveras at least provides a glove-first option in center. Left is more problematic, with options including the aforementioned Smith, Bubba Thompson and Eli White.

Smith has spent more time on the infield in his minor league career but was a prospect of note and had a big season  in the upper minors before struggling in his MLB debut. Thompson has 80-grade speed but needed a .389 BABIP just to get to a .265/.302/.312 batting line (77 wRC+) in 181 plate appearances in his own debut this season. With a 30.9% strikeout rate and that excessively good fortune on balls in play, his bat is likely to regress from an already troubling starting point. White’s glove gives him a chance at being a solid fourth outfielder, but he’s a career .185/.260/.296 hitter in 389 MLB plate appearances.

It’s not a great market for corner outfielders in free agency, as the bulk of the available names are either coming off injury-shortened seasons (Michael Conforto, Michael Brantley, Andrew Benintendi) or are simply in search of a rebound after a disappointing performance (AJ Pollock, Tommy Pham, David Peralta, Stephen Piscotty, old friend Joey Gallo). The trade market could offer a broad range of alternatives. The D-backs have been listening to offers on several outfielders (e.g. Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas), while the Twins (Max Kepler), Orioles (Anthony Santander) and Pirates (Bryan Reynolds) all have potential trade candidates of varying quality in the outfield.

Even after the Rangers’ spending spree over the past two offseasons, they’re still a projected $29MM from the luxury-tax threshold. Their projected $181MM Opening Day payroll would be a franchise-record mark, but “only” by a margin of about $15MM. The extent to which ownership will continue to green-light payroll increases can’t be known, but the Rangers are committed to spending their way back into contention in the AL West, so there’s little point in taking their foot off the gas now.

MLB Trade Rumors: Still Independent After 17 Years

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Last month, this website celebrated its 17th birthday.  Wow, we’re getting old!  Shout out to those who were around for the “white text on a black background” days!

We’ve come a very long way in these 17 years.  The quality of our writers’ work is as strong as it has ever been.  Our team of writers worked very hard to process all the information coming out of the Winter Meetings and put it in proper context, including Xander Bogaerts signing late at night on Wednesday.

There are no corporate overlords here at MLBTR.  It’s still just owned by one guy, me.  That means I can continue to steer the direction of the site toward quality instead of sensationalism, traffic, and gambling.  We don’t play up rumors or information that we think is incorrect or exaggerated, and we’ve developed a strong sense for that.  It also means we can spend a lot of time producing work that I feel is essential but probably isn’t directly profitable, like our top 50 free agent list, our offseason outlook and review posts, and our arbitration projections.

If you love or respect this website and have been coming here for a while, we hope you’ll consider a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription.  Despite weathering the revenue loss of a pandemic and lockout in the last few years, we’ve kept the price steady at $2.99 per month or $29.89 per year.  We think it’s a great value for the benefits we’re providing: no ads on the site, exclusive articles delivered via email every week from Steve Adams and Anthony Franco, and weekly exclusive live chats with Anthony where you’re likely to get your question answered.  I’ve got plans to further expand these benefits in 2023, with no increase in price.  If you scroll to the bottom of this link, you can flip through a bunch of endorsements from real Front Office subscribers.

We hope you’ll check out Front Office, but regardless, we’re glad you’re here and we’re excited for our first normal offseason in quite a while!

Phillies Sign Trea Turner To 11-Year Contract

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Dec. 8: The Phillies have formally announced the signing.

Dec. 5: The Phillies and shortstop Trea Turner have agreed on a contract that will see him make $300MM over 11 years with a full no-trade clause. Turner is represented by CAA Sports.

Trea Turner

Turner, who turns 30 in June, had a huge breakout campaign in 2016 and has been one of the best all-around players in the game since then. He’s stolen at least 27 bases in each full season in that time, twice getting over 40. His career batting average is over .300. Though his power wasn’t as impressive earlier in his career, he has continued pushing that portion of his game upwards, getting over 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons. Ultimate Zone Rating isn’t enamored of his glovework, though Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both view him as a quality fielder at shortstop for his career.

Turner reached free agency this winter as part of the so-called “big four,” which also consists of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Based on his ability to help a team in all facets of his game, MLBTR predicted him to get a healthy contract of $268MM over eight years. That was the second highest guarantee predicted for the shortstops, behind the $288MM predicted for Correa. However, Correa is over a year younger than Turner and that prediction was spread over nine years instead of eight, meaning Turner was predicted for the highest average annual value at $33.5MM.

The actual contract that Turner has agreed to will take a much different shape than the prediction. His $300MM guarantee goes a bit beyond the $288MM mark, but with three extra years added on. That means Turner will turn 40 years old in the final season of the contract. This deal has some similarities to that of Bryce Harper, Turner’s former teammate with the Nationals who also signed with the Phillies. Harper set the record for the largest guarantee ever given to a free agent, a record he still holds, by signing for $330MM. However, he got to that guarantee over an extended 13-year stretch, an average annual value of just over $25MM per season that was well below other elite players who often get into the mid-30s. (Since that deal, the AAV record has been set at $43.33MM by Max Scherzer and tied earlier today by Justin Verlander. Among position players, Mike Trout has the record at $36MM.) Turner has followed Harper to Philadelphia and also agreed to a somewhat similar contract that prioritizes guarantee instead of salary, with Turner’s deal working out to just over $27MM per season. Turner will also be reunited with Kevin Long, who is the hitting coach in Philadelphia. Turner recently told Kiley McDaniel of ESPN that Long, who was Washington’s hitting coach from 2018 to 2021, that Long played a key role in his development as a hitter.

For the Phillies, they have been looking for a solution at shortstop for a long time now. They signed Didi Gregorius to take the job in 2020, and he performed well enough in that shortened campaign to return on a two-year deal. Unfortunately, that new contract went south real fast, with Gregorius eventually finishing 2021 with a line of .209/.270/.370 for a wRC+ of 69, indicating he was 31% below league average.

There was some speculation the Phils would pursue a shortstop last winter, as there was also a healthy class of free agents at that time, including Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, Trevor Story and Marcus Semien. The club eventually shied away from that group, going into 2022 with Gregorius in the final year of his contract and prospect Bryson Stott knocking on the door of the majors. Gregorius had another awful season in 2022, getting released in August. Stott struggled for a few months but did eventually find his footing in an encouraging way. At the end of May, he was sitting on a miserable .123/.179/.151 batting line for a wRC+ of -8. Something seemed to click in June, as he hit .257/.318/.401 for a wRC+ of 102 from that point on, bringing his final line up to .234/.295/.358 and a wRC+ of 83.

The Phillies made it to the World Series in 2022, eventually falling to the Astros. They went into this winter motivated to upgrade for another run at the title in 2023 and were heavily connected to the “big four” shortstops. Having turned down on option on Jean Segura, they had an opening at second base and seemed intent on getting one of the big shortstop while kicking Stott over to the other side of the bag. Though they had some degree of interest in all four, it was reported last week that Turner was their top priority.

With this signing, the Phillies have made a splash that will have ripple effects around the rest of the league. The Dodgers, who acquired Turner from the Nats at the deadline in 2021, will now need to consider how to set their middle infield for next year. They are reportedly open to the idea of moving Gavin Lux from second base to short and sitting out the “big four” this winter. Whether that ultimates proves true or not will be revealed in time, but it doesn’t seem like Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson will have trouble finding their next employers. The Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox, Orioles and Mariners have been publicly linked to the shortstops in some way, with other clubs surely in the mix as well. Some of those teams were likely interested in Turner, though they will now have to proceed with one option off the board. Since Turner rejected a qualifying offer, the Dodgers will get an extra draft pick next year, with that pick pushed to after the fourth round on account of the Dodgers having paid the competitive balance tax. The Phils, also a CBT payor, will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks and see their international bonus pool reduced by $1MM.

Though the Phils will have Turner and Stott up the middle, the rest of the infield is somewhat in flux. Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins could stay at third and first base, respectively, as they did in 2022. However, with Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and potentially missing the first half of the year, it’s been speculated that Bohm could move over to first, with Hoskins taking more time in the designated hitter slot while Edmundo Sosa takes over at the hot corner. Regardless of how they line it up in the field, Turner seems poised to add a speedy element to a Philadelphia lineup that skewed to the power side. Turner can, to some degree, make up for some of the production lost by not having Harper around for the first part of the year, with Harper then hopefully joining the club for the second half and postseason. Turner hit .298/.343/.466 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 128, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases along the way.

Financially, the deal will extend the commitments for the club far into the future. Due to both Harper and Turner signing such lengthy deals, the Phils already have two big contracts on the books for the 2031 season, when they are both likely to be less productive than they are now. Turner will still be on the ledger through 2033. However, for the short term, the lower AAV gives the Phils more wiggle room in 2023 when they are looking to capitalize while their competitive window is wide open. Roster Resource estimates their 2023 payroll to be $206MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $218MM. The club paid the CBT in 2022 and seems poised to do so again, as they are now just about $15MM away from the $233MM threshold for 2023. Given that they are still looking to make upgrades to the pitching staff, they will likely end up on the other side of the line for a second straight year. The CBT features escalating penalties for repeat payors, meaning the Phils will pay a 30% tax on all spending over that line, with greater penalties if they go more than $20MM above.

It’s unsurprising that the Phils are being aggressive as they look get back to the World Series again in 2023. However, they will have no shortage of competition. Despite their strong postseason run, the club actually finished third in the division in 2022 behind the Mets and Braves. Those two clubs are still set up to be strong again going forward as Atlanta continues locking up all its young stars to lengthy extensions while the Mets are spending wildly in free agency. Turner’s deal is the second huge payout for the division today, as the Mets already signed Verlander to a two-year, $86.66MM deal to replace Jacob deGrom in their rotation. With many months still to go until Spring Training, the National League East is shaping up to be a fascinating battle again in 2023.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides were in agreement while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the specifics structure of the deal and the no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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