Cardinals Still Showing Interest In Dylan Cease
Even after revamping their rotation with a rapid-fire trio of free agent signings, the Cardinals are still in the mix for White Sox righty Dylan Cease, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said at the press conference to introduce Sonny Gray that he “doubted” his next move would be to add more starting pitching but conceded that he remains “open-minded” to further rotation additions (link via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).
The Cardinals, of course, signed Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn in just over a week’s time, adding a trio of arms who combined for 97 starts in 2023. The addition of Gray added a front-end presence to the St. Louis rotation, while Lynn and Gibson at the very least provided some reliable bulk innings on the back end. It seems clear that the Cards prioritized some stability after years of injury-related starting pitching crunches at Busch Stadium, and Cease would be a fourth addition in that vein.
In terms of pure results, the 27-year-old Cease (28 next month) has been on both ends of the spectrum recently. In 2022, he finished runner-up to Justin Verlander in AL Cy Young voting, while his 2023 campaign saw his ERA more than double from 2.20 to 4.58. Cease’s velocity dipped by a mile per hour, his strikeout rate fell three percentage points, and he yielded far more hard contact than he did during that elite 2022 campaign. What remained constant, however, was the righty’s availability. Cease made 33 starts this past season — his fourth straight year with a full slate of starts. Since 2020, Cease leads all MLB pitchers with 109 games started.
As things stand, the Cardinals project for a five-man rotation of Gray, Miles Mikolas, Lynn, Gibson and Steven Matz. Mikolas and Matz are both signed through 2025 — Mikolas at a total of $32MM and Matz at $24MM. There’s been some speculation about the possibility of an eventual Matz trade, but the Cardinals are also surely reluctant to thin out their depth too much after being burned by a lack of depth in multiple seasons recently.
Cease would give the Cardinals even more bulk innings but do so while carrying more upside than perhaps any member of their current staff. He’d surely benefit from a move out of the White Sox’ homer-happy stadium and away from their poorly ranked defense. With two years of club control remaining, a projected $8.8MM salary in arbitration (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and clear Cy Young-caliber upside on the mound, bidding for Cease’s services will be fierce.
Already this winter, he’s been connected to the Braves, Dodgers, Reds and Orioles. That’s surely just a fraction of the teams who’ve at least reached out to the ChiSox to gauge the asking price. The Cardinals’ recent free-agent activity might lessen their urgency relative to some of those other suitors, but it’s nevertheless of note that they remain in the mix at all.
From a payroll perspective, they can likely make a Cease acquisition work without even dramatically raising their spending from last year’s levels. The Cards backloaded Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract such that he’ll be paid just $10MM in 2024. Roster Resource projects a $180MM payroll right now, which is only narrowly higher than last year’s Opening Day mark. And the Cards could yet trade arbitration-eligible names like Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson, which would impact that payroll projection.
Someone like O’Neill — a free agent at season’s end — isn’t likely to hold much appeal to the White Sox, who’ll be looking for controllable talent to build around in the near future. But generally speaking, the Cardinals have a bevy of young, MLB-ready talent that could interest Chicago. Names like Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker and Matthew Liberatore all have at least three seasons of club control remaining, and that’s not even counting some interesting upper-minors prospects who’ve yet to debut but are relatively close to the Majors (e.g. Gordon Graceffo, Tink Hence).
As for the timing of a potential Cease trade, reports on the matter are conflicting in nature; MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggested just yesterday that Cease’s market was heating up and a trade could come together by Sunday evening. Not 18 hours later, Rosenthal reported nearly the opposite — that Sox GM Chris Getz has been indicating to teams he prefers to wait until after the top free-agent names have come off the board.
Latest On Dylan Cease
Nov. 30: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests a very different scenario regarding Cease, writing that Getz & Co. prefer to wait to move him until after the top starters on the market have signed. Clubs with current interest (e.g. Cincinnati, Baltimore), aren’t likely to play for the top names in free agency anyhow and will thus remain in play even if the Sox take their time trading Cease. And, by waiting until the top of the free agent market thins out, the Sox could potentially attract more bidders in the form of those who miss out on the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, etc.
Nov. 29: The White Sox have discussed Dylan Cease trades with teams since the offseason got underway. It seems they’ve gained some amount of traction, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that talks have “intensified” this week. Morosi suggests the ChiSox may pull the trigger on a deal prior to the Winter Meetings, which begin Sunday evening.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has linked the Dodgers and Braves to the hard-throwing righty in recent weeks. There are surely plenty of other teams that have been in touch with first-year general manager Chris Getz. Morosi calls the Braves one of the “finalists” for Cease’s services. That implies the Sox have narrowed down the field of suitors, although there’s no clarity as to how many clubs are still in the running.
Cease has been a popular trade target going back to the deadline. The Sox elected not to move him over the summer. A few weeks after the deadline, owner Jerry Reinsdorf dismissed front office leaders Rick Hahn and Ken Williams. He bumped Getz from assistant GM to the top role not long thereafter. Getz has rather bluntly discussed the lack of depth on the MLB roster. He has made clear there aren’t any players who are categorically off the table in trade discussions.
While Luis Robert Jr. probably has the most appeal of anyone on the team, Cease is the more likely of their high-value targets to change uniforms. The Sox have their franchise center fielder signed to a contract with club options running through the 2027 season. Cease is under team control for two years. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility.
Cease, who turns 28 next month, is coming off a relative down season. His ERA jumped from 2.20 during his Cy Young runner-up campaign in 2022 to 4.58 this year. Cease lost a couple points off his strikeout rate but still fanned a quality 27.3% of opposing hitters while taking the ball for a full slate of 33 starts.
Despite the relative down season, he remains the clear best pitcher on the roster. While Getz has expressed a willingness to make significant changes, he hasn’t characterized the situation as a rebuild. It stands to reason they’d look for major league and/or upper minors talent in a Cease trade. They took a volume approach to their first major trade of the offseason, acquiring five players (four of whom are MLB-ready depth types) from the Braves for reliever Aaron Bummer two weeks ago.
MLB Tenders Status Check On KBO Reliever Deok Ju Ham
Major League Baseball has tendered a status check with the Korea Baseball Organization on left-handed reliever Deok Ju Ham, reports Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. The status check is a formal procedure when big league clubs are showing interest in a KBO player. Ham is a true unrestricted free agent due to the fact that he’s already accrued more than nine years of service time in the KBO. As such, he can sign with any team — KBO, MLB, NPB or otherwise — without requiring a transfer via the posting system.
Ham, 29 in January, was a key bullpen arm for the KBO champion LG Twins this past season, pitching to an outstanding 1.62 earned run average with a 26.6% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 59.8% ground-ball rate in 55 2/3 innings. Injuries limited his innings and effectiveness in 2021-22, but overall Ham possesses a strong track record. Dating back to 2018, he sports a 3.04 ERA with a 23.4% strikeout rate. He’s walked an unsightly 12% of his opponents over that span, but a good portion of those command struggles came during his injury-shortened 2021-22 campaigns (when he dealt with elbow troubles and frequent blister issues, per Yoo). In his past two full, healthy seasons (2020 and 2023), Ham posted walk rates of 8.8% and 9.9%. Those are still sub-par marks but not quite as alarming as walk rates he posted while batting injuries.
The status check from MLB to KBO is a clear indicator that Ham has drawn at least some level of interest from one or more MLB clubs, though the extent of that interest isn’t clear — nor is the identity of the team(s) in question. Status checks on KBO players do not always portend a deal with a big league club, either. It’s possible Ham ultimately prefers to stay in South Korea and/or simply finds more lucrative deals in his current setting.
Yoo notes that Ham features four pitches — four-seamer, slider, curveball, changeup — the best of which is his changeup. That explains Ham’s reverse splits in 2023, as the changeup gives him a weapon to neutralize opposite-handed opponents. Ham is not a hard-thrower, however, and relies more on a deceptive delivery than overpowering stuff.
Because Ham is a true free agent, there’s no set negotiation window with MLB clubs and thus no good way of knowing when he might decide between testing the MLB waters or returning to the KBO (be it with the Twins or a new team in free agency). Given his track record and his excellent platform year with the eventual Korean Series champions, Ham should have offers to remain in South Korea if MLB teams don’t make any compelling offers.
The offseason market for left-handed relievers includes a handful of solid veterans beyond top dog Josh Hader, who could establish a new benchmark for bullpen contracts this winter. Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, Wandy Peralta, Brent Suter, Will Smith and star NPB left-hander Yuki Matsui are among the non-Hader options available. One point in Ham’s favor is that he’s considerably younger than most of the other free agents; Matsui is heading into his age-28 season, but the most established lefties on this winter’s market are all in their mid-to-late 30s.
The Opener: Cease, Reds, Outstanding DH Award
The hot stove is heating up with a notable overnight signing. Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Is a Cease trade on the horizon?
With the White Sox openly considering deals for any and all players on their roster, right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the hottest names on the rumor mill to this point in the offseason. Cease’s trade candidacy began to escalate somewhat yesterday, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi even suggesting that it’s possible a deal could be in place before the start of the Winter Meetings this weekend. The Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox, and Orioles have all been publicly connected to Cease, whose trade market we examined earlier this month.
While Cease is coming off an uneven 2023 campaign that saw him post a 4.58 ERA despite a solid 3.72 FIP, he owns a much stronger 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the past three seasons and could have more appeal to some clubs as a target than other arms rumored to be available such as Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow due to the fact that he’s arbitration eligible for both the 2024 and ’25 campaigns.
2. What’s next for the Reds?
The Reds have mostly sat out free agency in recent years, with zero players signed to multi-year contracts since the 2019-20 offseason that saw them bring in Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama, and Wade Miley on multi-year pacts. That inactivity changed yesterday, however, as the club reportedly agreed to terms with two right-handers on two-year contracts: reliever Emilio Pagan and swingman Nick Martinez. The moves help to shore up a pitching staff that proved to be the primary culprit behind the Reds missing the postseason with an 82-80 record in 2023 despite the emergence of a core of young players like Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, and Elly De La Cruz (among others).
While the combined guarantee of $42MM to Pagan and Martinez represents a substantial financial outlay relative to Cincinnati’s recent spending habits, the club likely has plenty of room to add further salary; RosterResource projects their 2024 payroll at just $71MM — $16MM below their 2023 payroll and more than $50MM below the club’s all-time high payroll of $126MM in 2019, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
3. Outstanding DH Award winner announced:
MLB’s awards season will conclude tonight with the announcement of this year’s Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award winner. The winner will be announced at 5pm CT this evening on MLB Network. While the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, and Marcell Ozuna all had excellent seasons at DH in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the award going to anyone other than free agent superstar Shohei Ohtani. If Ohtani does take home the hardware, it’ll be his third consecutive season doing so. That’s more consecutive wins than any player other than David Ortiz, who won the award five seasons in a row from 2003-07. Martinez himself won the award five times between 1995 to 2001, though never more than twice consecutively.
MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Sonny Gray signing with the Cardinals (1:40)
- Kenta Maeda signing with the Tigers (11:45)
- Dodgers, Braves, Orioles and Reds missed on Aaron Nola (14:30)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
- The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
- Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
- What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)
Check out our past episodes!
- Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason – listen here
- Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
- Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
Mets Sign Luis Severino
The Mets are reportedly in agreement with free agent starter Luis Severino on a one-year, $13MM guarantee. The deal also includes $2MM in performance bonuses. Severino, who is represented by Rep 1 Baseball, would receive $500K for reaching 27 starts and $750K apiece for his 29th and 31st start.
Severino, 30 in February, is a wild card of this winter’s free agent market. He once looked like one of the best pitchers in the majors but has spent the past five years either injured or ineffective or both. He made 63 starts over 2017 and 2018, throwing 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 earned run average. He punched out 28.8% of batters faced while walking just 6.2% of them and keeping 45.8% of balls in play on the ground. FanGraphs calculated him as worth 11 wins above replacement over that two-year span, trailing just four pitchers around the league: Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber.
He and the Yankees agreed to a four-year, $40MM extension prior to 2019, with that deal also having a $15MM option for 2023. But shortly after that deal was signed, he ran into health problems. He only made three starts in the first year of that deal due to shoulder and lat injuries, then Tommy John surgery kept him off the field entirely in 2020 and for most of 2021. More lat issues came in 2022, but he was at least able to make 19 starts and log 102 innings with a 3.18 ERA, followed by a couple of playoff starts.
That relatively healthy showing was enough for the Yankees to trigger the player option for 2023. Another lat strain prevented him from making his season debut until May and then an oblique strain in September ended his season early. In the middle of those IL stints, he tossed 89 1/3 innings but with an awful 6.65 ERA. He struck out just 18.9% of opponents, a huge drop from his 27.7% rate in 2022.
Severino averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball in 2023, a bit down from his 97.6 from 2018. It’s higher than his 96.3 mph average from 2022, when he was still effective. His slider had a bigger drop, averaging 84.6 mph in this year whereas it sat 88-89 prior to his injury troubles. But he was still getting good results in 2022 with a slider that averaged 85.1 mph.
Despite the rough season, some club was going to take a chance on Severino’s track record and hope for a bounceback with better health. MLBTR predicted Severino to secure a contract of one-year and $14MM. His guarantee is just beneath that but the bonuses could help him climb to the other side.
That the Mets are the club to take the chance on Severino makes plenty of sense, with reporting from a couple of weeks ago suggesting they were interested. Last year’s struggles led them to trade Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander ahead of the deadline. Then Carlos Carrasco reached free agency and David Peterson required hip surgery that will force him to miss the start of next season.
All of that left the Mets with a 2024 rotation consisting of Kodai Senga and José Quintana in two spots. They had some candidates to fill out the back end, such as Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto, but each of those guys can be optioned to the minors and make more sense as depth options than as part of the club’s Opening Day plans.
It’s still unclear exactly what kind of offseason the Mets are planning to have and this transaction won’t make that much clearer. The 2023 club had the highest payroll in baseball history but reporting from the deadline indicated that they may opt for a somewhat less-aggressive approach for 2024. But stepping back from unprecedented heights could still lead to plenty of activity, depending on the size of the step.
This deal is fairly modest by free agent standards but could always be paired with a larger move. For example, the Cardinals were looking for three starters this winter and started with one-year deals for Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson before a bigger three-year strike on Sonny Gray. Perhaps the Mets have a bigger move to come, having been connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But time will tell if that kind of big strike is realistically in their plans.
For now, they’ve added a former star on a short-term deal. He could either help them return to contention or perhaps turn himself into a deadline trade chip. If he isn’t able to get back in good form, the Mets won’t have impacted their plans for competing in the long term.
In the short term, this seems like it will cost them more than the $13MM sticker price. According to Roster Resource, this move pushes the club’s competitive balance tax calculation to $288MM, well beyond next year’s base tax threshold of $237MM. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying in consecutive years and the Mets are set to be a third-time payor in 2024. That means they pay a 50% tax on all overages, 62% for spending over the $257MM line and 95% for going past the third line of $277MM. They could always shed salary somehow but they are already past the third line and not too far from the fourth line of $297MM, when their tax rate would jump to 110%. The tax isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so they could significantly alter all of these calculations between now and next fall, but it’s distinctly possible that they end up paying something close to double that $13MM figure that Severino will receive.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Severino was nearing agreement with the Mets. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the sides were finalizing a one-year, $13MM deal that included $2MM in bonuses. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the specific bonus structure.
Braves Sign Penn Murfee, Jackson Stephens To Major League Deals
The Braves announced the signings of relievers Penn Murfee and Jackson Stephens to one-year split deals. A split contract means the player would be paid at differing rates for time spent in the majors versus Triple-A. Both pitchers rejoin Atlanta’s 40-man roster. The team still has seven openings on the 40-man on the heels of an active non-tender deadline.
Murfee and Stephens were each dropped from the roster within the past couple weeks. Atlanta had cut Murfee loose at the non-tender deadline. Stephens hit the open market not long before that after going unclaimed on outright waivers.
The Braves had just snagged Murfee off waivers a few days before cutting him loose. The 29-year-old righty has 80 games of major league experience, all of which have come with the Mariners over the past two seasons. Leaning heavily on a sweeping slider, Murfee has posted strong results. He owns a 2.70 ERA in 83 1/3 innings, striking out nearly 28% of batters faced. He has found success against hitters of either handedness.
Murfee’s season was unfortunately cut short in June. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a UCL tear in his elbow. He’ll miss a good portion of next season as a result. There’s no injured list during the offseason, explaining Seattle’s decision to move on despite his strong body of work. The Braves have enough roster space to give Murfee a spot, at least for the time being. If he sticks on the roster for the rest of the offseason, they could place him on the 60-day injured list whenever they need a 40-man spot from the start of Spring Training onward.
Stephens, 29, has spent the past two seasons in the Atlanta organization. The righty logged more big league action in 2022, when he turned in a 3.69 ERA through 53 2/3 frames. He didn’t see as much time this past season, tallying only 12 MLB innings over five appearances in September. Stephens worked to a 3.28 ERA with a strong 26% strikeout rate across 24 2/3 innings with Triple-A Gwinnett.
Since he is out of minor league options, he’d have to open next season on the active roster or again be exposed to waivers. Stephens would have the right to elect free agency if the Braves successfully passed him through waivers unclaimed. Since he has less than five years of service time, he’d have to forfeit his guaranteed salary to become a free agent. By signing him to a split deal that locks in an undisclosed amount of money for whatever time he spends in Triple-A, the Braves increase their chance of retaining Stephens as non-roster depth in the event they try to run him through waivers at some point.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Murfee was returning to the Braves on a major league deal shortly before the club announcement.
Guardians, Jaime Barria Agree To Minor League Deal
The Guardians are in agreement with right-hander Jaime Barria on a minor league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (on X). The former Angels hurler elected free agency after clearing outright waivers last month.
Until that point, Barria had spent his entire career with the Halos. He signed out of Panama in 2013 and reached the big leagues five seasons later. Barria debuted as a 21-year-old and turned in a strong rookie season, working to a 3.41 ERA over 26 starts.
While he hasn’t recaptured that level of success, Barria has shouldered a decent number of innings in a swing role over the past few seasons. The results have been inconsistent. He allowed an ERA of 4.61 or worse in each of 2019, ’21 and this year. Barria fared better in a limited sample during the shortened season and had a strong 2.61 mark over 79 1/3 relief innings in 2022.
The Halos have mostly deployed him in lower-leverage situations. Barria doesn’t throw especially hard or miss many bats. He has struck out a below-average 17.1% of batters faced in each of the past two seasons. A spike in home runs dramatically flipped the script on his run prevention this year. Barria was tagged for 5.68 earned runs per nine in 82 1/3 frames spanning 34 appearances (including six starts).
The 27-year-old owns a 4.75 ERA in 333 1/3 big league innings over the last five years. He has a modest 17.8% strikeout percentage but has kept his walks to a solid 7.2% clip. He’ll presumably get a look in big league Spring Training and can compete for a long relief role with the ability to step into the rotation as needed. Barria is out of minor league options, so if he cracks the MLB roster at any point, he’d need to remain with the big league club or be designated for assignment. He has a little over four years of MLB service. If he carves out a role on the major league staff, Cleveland could retain him via arbitration for at least one additional season.
Dodgers Showing Interest In Seth Lugo
The Dodgers are among numerous teams that have shown interest in free agent hurler Seth Lugo, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (on X). Alexander indicates that upwards of two-thirds of the league has checked in with Lugo’s camp, aligning with a recent report from FanSided’s Robert Murray that more than half the teams were involved.
Los Angeles is a suitable fit for every free agent starter. The Dodgers have less certainty in their rotation than they’ve had at any point in the past few seasons. Of the four pitchers who topped 100 innings, only Bobby Miller is going to open next year in the rotation. Julio Urías is unlikely to return after being arrested on domestic violence allegations. Tony Gonsolin will probably miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will be out of action into the 2024 campaign due to a postseason shoulder procedure.
Walker Buehler returns from his second Tommy John surgery to join Miller in the starting five. Los Angeles could bring in as many as three additional starters. Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone struggled to varying degrees. Dustin May won’t be ready for the start of the season as he works back from July flexor surgery. Ryan Pepiot only managed 42 MLB innings in a swing capacity this year thanks to an oblique strain sustained at the tail end of Spring Training. Ryan Yarbrough worked mostly in long relief upon being acquired from the Royals in a midseason trade.
There’s a clear need for both high-end talent and bulk innings. Lugo could provide some combination of the two. The Padres gave the right-hander his first extended rotation opportunity in six years. He responded with a 3.57 ERA across 26 starts. Lugo missed a month in the first half with a calf strain but otherwise stayed healthy and logged a personal-high 146 1/3 innings. He supported the solid run prevention with an above-average 23.2% strikeout percentage while only walking 6% of opponents.
That made it an easy call for Lugo to decline a $7.5MM player option. He’ll surely beat that salary and figures to secure a multi-year contract. Lugo turned 34 a couple weeks ago, so it won’t be a particularly long-term commitment. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported last week that Lugo was seeking three years.
MLBTR predicted Lugo to receive a three-year term at $14MM annually, ranking him 19th among free agents in expected earning power. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, a three-year term beginning in a starting pitcher’s age-34 campaign is rare but not unprecedented. There has been one such deal in each of the past two offseasons. Chris Bassitt secured a $63MM guarantee from the Blue Jays last winter; Sonny Gray landed $75MM from the Cardinals on Monday. Lugo doesn’t have the multi-year track record of starting as those pitchers do, but that could be reflected in a lesser annual salary.
The Dodgers have shied away from long-term pitching investments under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. L.A. signed Kenta Maeda to an eight-year pact when he came over from Japan, but that was an incentive-laden deal with a modest $25MM guarantee. Otherwise, they haven’t gone past three years for a free agent starting pitcher — doing so for Rich Hill ($48MM), Kershaw ($93MM) and Trevor Bauer ($102MM).
That could change this offseason, given both the pitcher-heavy nature of the free agent class and the roster’s rotation issues. The Dodgers should have plenty of payroll room to add multiple starters on the open market. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 luxury tax commitments in the $168MM range, around $69MM below next year’s base threshold.
Royals Sign Garrett Hampson
The Royals announced that they have signed infielder/outfielder Garrett Hampson to a one-year contract. Hampson will make a salary of $2MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.
Hampson, 29, spent the 2023 season with the Marlins in a utility capacity. He got into 98 games and stepped to the plate 252 times, striking out at a 26.6% clip and only hitting three home runs but he did draw walks 9.1% of the time. His .276/.349/.380 batting line was a hair above league average, translating to a wRC+ of 101, though his .379 batting average on balls in play was almost 60 points higher than his career rate in that department. That roughly average offensive production was actually a big step up from his time in Colorado, as Hampson slashed .233/.292/.369 for the Rockies from 2019 to 2022.
Hitting aside, Hampson can provide value in other ways. His sprint speed was considered by Statcast to be in the 98th percentile in 2023. He only stole five bases on the year but has 57 in his career. Defensively, he has spent time at all three outfield positions and the three infield spots to the left of first base, giving him plenty of versatility.
After the 2022 season, the Rockies non-tendered him instead of paying a projected $2.1MM salary. He then had to settle for a minor league deal with the Marlins and ended up having a decent campaign in a part-time role but it wasn’t enough for the Fish to keep him on the roster. He exhausted his final option year in 2023 and would have less roster flexibility going forward, so the Marlins opted not to tender him a contract at a projected rate of $1.3MM.
The Royals are willing to give him $2MM and a roster spot, presumably to utilize him in the same multi-positional role he has held so far in his career. The club has Bobby Witt Jr. implanted at shortstop but second base and third base have less certainty. Maikel Garcia is the favorite at the hot corner and has a good floor with his speed and defense, but he hit just four home runs in 515 plate appearances in 2023. Michael Massey could be in line for the lion’s share of playing time at second after hitting 15 homers this year but his .274 on-base percentage was among the worst in the league last year. Center field has similar question marks after subpar offensive seasons from Drew Waters and Kyle Isbel.
In addition to those aforementioned areas, injuries will inevitably arise over the course of a 162-game season, creating holes elsewhere. Hampson can help fill in there or perhaps serve as a late-game defensive replacement or pinch runner, depending on how things shake up over the remainder of the offseason. Nick Loftin and Samad Taylor are also on the roster as utility options but they each have options and less than a year of service time.