Yoshinobu Yamamoto Officially Posted By Orix Buffaloes
November 20: As expected, Yamamoto has been officially posted, as relayed by Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The posting window begins a 7 am Central on November 21 and goes until 4 pm Central on January 4.
November 17: Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of the offseason’s most talked-about free agents, and he’ll finally be fully available to Major League teams in a few days’ time. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via X) that Yamamoto is “expected to be posted” this coming Monday, so his negotiation window to speak with MLB teams will officially begin on November 21.
It is widely expected that Yamamoto will shatter the record for the largest contract ever given to a player coming from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors for the first time, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a nine-year, $225MM deal for the right-hander. Because Yamamoto is only 25 years old, it is quite possible that he might seek an opt-out clause or two in his eventual contract, allowing him the chance to re-enter the market in a few years’ time in search of an even larger deal after he has established himself as a frontline Major League pitcher.
Yamamoto has been utterly dominant over his seven seasons with the Buffaloes, posting a 1.82 ERA over 897 innings. With a 26.43% strikeout rate and small walk (5.9%) and home run (1.03%) rates, Yamamoto’s numbers are pretty eye-popping across the board, leaving scouts and evaluators with little doubt that he’ll be at least a solid big league pitcher with a clear ceiling as a potential ace. Since Yamamoto is so young, there should be plenty of prime years left, and there is much less wear-and-tear on his arm than most other premium free agent pitchers in history, considering how it is very rare for players to be available to the open market at age 25.
Technically, Yamamoto is not a completely free agent yet, as per the rules of the MLB/NPB posting system. Come Tuesday, Yamamoto will have 45 days to negotiate with Major League teams, giving him until January 4 to sign a contract to come to North America. Yamamoto would return to the Buffaloes for the 2024 NPB season if no deal is reached within that 45-day window, yet with so much interest in his services, it certainly feels like he has pitched his last game in a Buffaloes uniform for the foreseeable future.
The Buffaloes are entitled to a posting fee once Yamamoto signs, so a Major League team will have to pay up some extra money beyond whatever they give to Yamamoto himself. The Buffaloes will receive 20% of the contract’s first $25MM in guaranteed money, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and then 15% on anything beyond the $50MM mark. Should Yamamoto land that projected $225MM deal, then, that would mean a $35.625MM posting fee to the Buffaloes — not a bad payday, yet a bittersweet one considering that the Osaka-based team is losing such a proven star.
The Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers have all been linked to Yamamoto to varying degrees, whether it has been club officials or scouts on hand in Japan to see the righty pitch in person, or offseason reports indicating that Yamamoto is high on a team’s list of priorities. It seems entirely possible that Yamamoto’s list of suitors could be even longer, given the somewhat unique opportunity to sign an elite pitcher at such a young age.
Negotiations will begin in earnest Tuesday, with quite a bit of impact on the overall pitching market. Because Yamamoto’s free agency would come with a hard deadline, it is possible some of the other top arms on the market might wait until after he signs, to better gauge the field of remaining suitors. With so many teams in need of pitching, missing out on Yamamoto could make teams more eager (and thus more willing to spend big) to acquire one of the other pitchers left. Some reports have suggested that Shota Imanaga, his representatives, and NPB’s Yokohama DeNA Baystars might wait until after Yamamoto is off the market to go ahead and start Imanaga’s own posting window.
Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!
On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.
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Zack Britton Announces Retirement
Two-time All-Star Zack Britton is retiring after a 12-year career in the Majors. The left-hander himself announced the news in a terrific interview with The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli that fans of Britton, the Orioles and the Yankees will surely want to read in full. Within, Britton discusses the difficult decision to walk away, the toll that the game can take on a young family (and his subsequent appreciation for the support of his wife), some of the low points of his career, the best advice he ever received from Buck Showalter and much, much more.
A third-round pick of the Orioles back in 2006, the now-35-year-old Britton didn’t have a straightforward path to stardom. Though he ranked among the game’s 100 best prospects on most lists heading into the 2010 and 2011 seasons, Britton’s rookie campaign in ’11 featured 154 1/3 innings of 4.61 ERA ball. He struggled as a starter in each of the next two seasons, pitching to a nondescript 4.77 ERA from 2011-13.
After logging 254 2/3 innings of shaky work with sub-par strikeout and walk rates out of the rotation, Britton was moved to the Orioles’ bullpen. It proved to be a career-defining decision. Britton excelled immediately, and before long he’d cemented himself not as just one of the very best relievers in the big leagues, but as one of the most dominant lefties in recent MLB history.
Britton’s peak in Baltimore was the stuff of legend. His 2014-16 run, in particular, stands as one of the best three-year stretches you’ll ever find from a reliever. In that span, the southpaw logged 209 innings with a minuscule 1.38 earned run average, fanning 27.1% of his opponents against a 6.9% walk rate.
In addition to those strong strikeout and walk rates, Britton was perhaps the greatest ground-ball pitcher in our lifetimes (if not longer). Since batted-ball data began being tracked in 2002, Britton owns five of the top 14 single-season grounder rates of any qualified pitcher in baseball — including Nos. 1 and 2. Britton’s 80% ground-ball rate in 2016 and his 79.1% ground-ball rate a year prior are the top two marks of any qualified pitcher since the advent of batted-ball tracking. Opponents were simply unable to elevate the southpaw’s 96-98mph bowling ball of a sinker, and it showed. After moving to the ‘pen in 2014, Britton allowed just 0.39 home runs per nine innings pitched for the remainder of his career.
Britton made the All-Star team in both 2015 and 2016, leading the league in games finished in both of those seasons and topping the American League with 47 saves in ’16. He picked up another pair of saves and a hold with the O’s during their 2014 run to the ALCS. Fans will no doubt remember the now-infamous Showalter decision to pitch Ubaldo Jimenez over Britton in the 2016 Wild Card game, but Britton effused praise for his former skipper, crediting Showalter for helping make his career what it was and noting that such an esteemed managerial career shouldn’t be defined by that decision.
As the Orioles’ run as one of the American League’s top teams tailed off, Britton found himself changing uniforms in a rare intra-division swap of significance. Baltimore shipped him to the Yankees in return for Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and Josh Rogers at the 2018 deadline — one of former GM Dan Duquette’s final moves atop the baseball operations hierarchy. Though Britton was a rental at the time, his foray into free agency led him right back to the Bronx; he signed a complex three-year, $39MM contract that contained a club option for a fourth season but required the Yankees to make the decision on that option after just two years — lest Britton be afforded the opportunity to opt out of the deal. The Yankees wound up exercising the fourth year, though injuries derailed much of Britton’s final few seasons.
While Britton’s time with the Yankees wasn’t necessarily as dominant as his time in Baltimore, he was nonetheless an excellent bullpen weapon for them when healthy. The lefty appeared in 136 games for the Yankees during regular-season play, piling up 53 holds and a dozen saves while recording a 2.75 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates weren’t close to their peak levels, but Britton’s power sinker continued to produce ground-balls at historic rates throughout his time in pinstripes. The lefty notched sub-2.00 ERAs in both 2019 and 2020 before struggling to a near-6.00 ERA in an injury shortened 2021 campaign that culminated in Tommy John surgery. He returned to face nine hitters in 2022 — the final nine opponents of his excellent career.
All told, Britton will walk away from the game with a career 3.13 ERA, 154 saves, 61 holds and 35 wins. He pitched 641 innings during that time, adding another 23 postseason frames with a 3.13 ERA, two saves and seven holds. It could be years, if not decades before we see another reliever season quite like Britton’s career-best 2016 campaign: he logged a 0.54 ERA that year, saved 47 games, struck out 29.1% of his opponents (against a 7.1% walk rate), induced grounders at that best-ever 80% clip, made the All-Star team and finished fourth in American League Cy Young voting. He earned more than $87MM over the course of his dozen seasons in the big leagues.
While Britton indicated to Ghiroli that he isn’t ruling out a return to baseball in some capacity in his post-playing days, his immediate plans are to spend time with his wife and four children. Best wishes to Britton and his family in whatever the future holds.
The Opener: Nola, Yamamoto, Hall Of Fame Ballot
As another week of the offseason kicks off, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball:
1. Phillies to hold press conference for Aaron Nola
The Phillies will host a press conference this afternoon at 12:30 PM CT to officially announce the re-signing of All-Star right-hander Aaron Nola. On Sunday, the two sides came to terms on a seven-year, $172MM contract to keep the longest-tenured Phillie in red pinstripes through his age-37 campaign. The deal marks the first nine-figure transaction of the offseason, and Nola becomes the first of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents to come off the board.
While his $24.57MM average annual salary is merely a few hundred thousand dollars lower than the $25MM figure we predicted at MLBTR, his total guaranteed salary is higher. What’s more, Nola reportedly took a hometown discount (per Jon Heyman of the New York Post), turning down even higher offers from other teams to stay with the club that drafted him seventh overall in 2014. Thus, it will be interesting to see how his deal influences the market for other starting pitchers in a similar tier, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto to be posted this week
Speaking of Yamamoto, the Orix Buffaloes are expected to post the righty sometime this week, kicking off the 45-day window MLB clubs will have to negotiate with the 25-year-old superstar. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests the three-time NPB Triple Crown winner will be posted as early as today, and the 45-day countdown will officially begin on Tuesday.
Yamamoto is widely considered the best arm available in free agency, and it would have been reasonable for a top pitcher like Nola to wait for him to set the market at some point in the next six weeks. However, it turns out Nola was the first domino to fall, so perhaps we’ll see the other clubs that were in the mix for his services pivot to Yamamoto instead.
3. Hall of Fame ballot to be revealed
The 2024 BBWAA ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be unveiled today. Returning names will include Todd Helton (6th year on the ballot), Billy Wagner (9th), Andruw Jones (7th), Gary Sheffield (10th and final), Alex Rodriguez (3rd), Manny Ramirez (8th), Omar Vizquel (7th), Andy Pettitte (6th), and Bobby Abreu (5th). Helton and Wagner each earned more than two-thirds of the vote on the previous ballot, and each has a solid chance to earn the necessary 75% of the vote this time around. Meanwhile, Sheffield will hope to jump from 55% to 75% in his final year on the ballot.
Newcomers to the ballot will include Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, and José Bautista. Beltré is a likely Hall of Famer and has a chance to enter on his first ballot. Mauer and Utley aren’t as likely to reach the threshold for enshrinement right away, but they will hope to begin drumming up support for an eventual election. Finally, Wright, Colon, Holliday, and Bautista are long shots to enter the Hall, but with their various accolades and career accomplishments, they should earn enough support to remain on the ballot.
Phillies Re-Sign Aaron Nola
One of the offseason’s top free agents is staying put, as the Phillies announced that Aaron Nola has been re-signed to a seven-year deal. Nola will earn $172MM over the course of the contract, which contains no opt-out clauses or club options. Nola is represented by Paragon Sports.
Nola, 30, was selected seventh overall by the Phillies in the 2014 draft. The right-hander was a quick riser to the big leagues, making his MLB debut shortly after the All-Star break in 2015 at the age of 22. His rookie season saw him post a respectable 3.59 ERA (107 ERA+) and 4.04 FIP across 13 starts in the majors. It was a preview of the reliable, back-of-the-rotation production Nola would provide the Phillies with throughout his early twenties: he posted a 3.94 ERA (106 ERA+) across the first three seasons of his big league career, though a 3.38 FIP in that time suggested there was more potential yet to come for the young righty.
That potential was unleashed during the 2018 season. Nola posted a sterling 2.37 ERA while racking up 224 strikeouts across 212 1/3 innings of work. The performance not only earned Nola his first career All-Star appearance and a third-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting that year, but the Phillies also inked him to a new contract. The two sides agreed to a four-year extension with a club option for the 2023 season shortly before Opening Day 2019.
While Nola never quite replicated that incredible 2018 campaign over the life of his extension, he’s remained one of the most durable starters in the league over the past half-decade. Since the start of the 2018 season, only Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings than Nola’s 1065 1/3 figure. While Nola’s ERA of 3.65 is dragged down by difficult 2021 and 2023 seasons that saw him post results closer to that of a league-average starter than an ace, his 3.38 FIP over the past six seasons is a top-ten figure among arms with at least 700 innings of work across that timeframe. That leaves him with a whopping 25.5 fWAR accumulated over the past six seasons, an excellent figure topped only by Cole, Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation Zack Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom.
Impressive as those numbers are, Nola’s new deal with the Phillies is a hefty one for a pitcher coming off a 4.46 ERA (96 ERA+) platform season. Though Nola’s struggles in 2023 could fairly be attributed, at least in part, to a deflated 66.4% strand rate and an elevated 15.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs, he’ll continue to call the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park home while pitching in front of a Phillies defense that ranked below average by measure of Outs Above Average last season and bottom-five per Defensive Runs Saved. While a full-time shift to DH for Kyle Schwarber and additional reps for Bryce Harper at his new position of first base should help the Phillies out in the field next season, the defensive holes created by Nick Castellanos in right field and Trea Turner at shortstop seem unlikely to be plugged any time soon.
Previous reporting indicated the Phillies were hesitant to give Nola a seven-year contract, but Philadelphia continued a trend that became more common — stretching deals for top free agents in terms of years to lower the contract’s AAV. It’s a tactic used with several positional free agents last offseason, including Turner’s own 11-year pact with the Phillies. While the deal between Nola and the Phillies will keep the right-hander on the payroll through the 2030 season, the club will pay Nola just $24.57MM yearly for luxury tax purposes.
That AAV comes in far below not only that of previous top-tier free agent starters like David Price ($31MM AAV), but also more recent arms like Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon ($27MM AAV). Nola’s annual figure is much more closely in line with that of previous free agent arms like Wheeler, Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin, none of whom entered free agency with a track record of success comparable to Nola’s. The lowered AAV could help the Phillies if they look to avoid surpassing higher levels of the luxury tax. In 2024, Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll just over $252MM for luxury tax purposes, putting them around $5MM below the second luxury tax threshold of $257MM. Of course, staying under that figure would require the Phillies to either trim payroll elsewhere on the roster or make virtually no additional moves this offseason, though Nola’s lower AAV could still come into play for luxury tax purposes in future seasons.
Nola clocked in at number five on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, where we projected the righty for a six-year, $150MM contract. While that projection ended up one year and $22MM light, it seems that Nola could have surpassed the deal he took with the Phillies had he decided to sign elsewhere as the New York Post’s Heyman reports that Nola took a lesser deal to remain in Philadelphia. It’s unclear which team or teams topped Philly’s offer, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan notes that the Braves were considered a “real threat” to land Nola while Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Tom Ackerman of KMOX this morning that he had been engaged with Nola’s agents during his free agency but that Nola had a “really strong desire” to return to the Phillies.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made fairly clear that the Phillies only plan on adding one arm to their rotation this offseason, and with Nola back on board it seems the club’s rotation is set headed into 2024. While it’s certainly feasible that the heavy lifting for the Phillies could already be done for the offseason, there are still holes on the roster the club could look to address. The club could look to add a bat to their left field mix rather than rely on Johan Rojas as an everyday player after a solid 59-game stint in the majors this year, while the club’s late-inning mix could use a right-handed arm to pair with Jose Alvarado after veteran closer Craig Kimbrel departed for free agency.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report that the agreement was in place, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the $172MM figure. Nightengale and Jon Heyman of the New York Post respectively added the details about the no-trade clause and the lack of club options or opt-outs.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Blue Jays “Open To” Alek Manoah Trade Offers
After finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, Alek Manoah had a disastrous 2023 season, posting a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings while suffering a significant loss of control. Manoah’s hellish year included a month-long stint in the Florida Complex League to try and solve his sudden mechanical issues, as well as a later option to Triple-A Buffalo in August that didn’t result in any actual pitching appearances with the Bisons.
With all this in mind, it perhaps isn’t surprising that rival executives have told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that “the Blue Jays are open to moving” Manoah in a trade, and teams have made calls in general asking about Toronto’s rotation depth. Of course, teams are often willing to listen on virtually any player, so it isn’t clear if Toronto is merely doing its due diligence in not dismissing offers for Manoah, or if the Jays are actively shopping Manoah in some regard.
It’s difficult to call Manoah a true trade candidate given the still somewhat mysterious nature of his down year. Some type of injury seemed to be a factor, as Jays GM Ross Atkins said in October that Manoah received a PRP injection to treat some shoulder discomfort. Manoah also went through some medical testing during his stint in Buffalo, but there were also reports of some hard feelings between Manoah and the team, perhaps regarding how the minor league option might’ve cost Manoah enough service time to claim Super Two status.
Only the Jays and Manoah himself have an idea of his status heading into 2024, or if even that might still be unclear until Manoah gets some offseason or Spring Training work under his belt. Obviously no team is going to pay a big price for Manoah without having more understanding of what exactly is plaguing the 25-year-old right-hander, so that alone limits Toronto’s leverage in any trade discussions.
By that same token, if Manoah just needs to get healthy, it is possible he could enjoy a swift return to form. Should such a bounce-back happen, the Blue Jays obviously want to benefit, rather than selling low on Manoah and then watching him rebound on another club. That said, “selling low” is still better than selling for nothing, and another mediocre season might ruin Manoah’s trade value entirely. Manoah’s rough season is just one season, and rival teams might feel they have an answer to Manoah’s mechanical problems, or that a trade itself might get Manoah on track if there is indeed bad blood between the righty and Jays management.
MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently speculated that the Blue Jays and Cardinals might line up on a Manoah trade, perhaps involving such past Jays trade targets as Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, or Brendan Donovan. With Carlson and Tyler O’Neill both struggling for the last two seasons after some early success in their MLB careers, the Cards and Jays could theoretically explore moving two “sell low” candidates for each other, hoping that mutual change of scenery would benefit all parties. St. Louis is one of many teams looking for pitching this winter, and with the Jays having a wide array of holes to fill in the lineup, several clubs could be fits if Manoah was indeed available.
The other question about a Manoah trade is how it would impact Toronto’s rotation. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi are set as the top four, with Manoah being the favorite for the fifth spot though Atkins made no guarantees. If teams are asking about the Blue Jays’ pitchers in general, any of Bowden Francis, Mitch White, Wes Parsons, or even Kikuchi could be available at the right price. Such a deal involving another pitcher would imply that Toronto is confident Manoah can bounce back, or that the Jays are perhaps exploring acquiring another pitcher for more stability at the back end of the pitching staff.
Phillies Still Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Additional Depth Pitching
Even after officially reuniting with Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM deal earlier today, the Phillies are still in the hunt for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. A source tells Coffey that the Phils will be “pretty aggressive” in going after the Japanese right-hander, “but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.”
The Athletic’s Matt Gelb concurs, hearing that the Phillies “will not be a top bidder on Yamamoto after finalizing the Nola deal.” Given how Yamamoto has gotten so much interest from multiple clubs and how MLBTR projects a nine-year, $225MM price tag for the righty’s first Major League contract, having any financial limits in place might alone halt Philadelphia’s chances. Gelb is also pessimistic about the Phillies’ chances due to the team’s relative lack of a history with Japanese players — in particular, no Japanese pitcher has ever appeared on Philadelphia’s MLB roster.
That said, the special circumstances of Yamamoto’s arrival in North American baseball has kept the Phillies interested on some level, and it could be that the club ultimately decides to make the splash on a special talent. Yamamoto is only 25 years old, and thus could be a rotation fixture for the better part of a decade if he pitches anything like he has over seven dominant seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball. Given how owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski haven’t shown much compunction about spending to upgrade the Phillies’ roster, Philadelphia probably can’t truly be ruled out until Yamamoto has officially put pen to paper with another team.
Yamamoto is already an exception to the rest of the Phillies’ pitching plans for the offseason. Coffey writes that the team is still aiming to add at least one more rotation-caliber piece, and potentially two in the form of Yamamoto and a swingman or spot starter type that could be optioned back and forth from Triple-A. Dylan Covey and Matt Strahm are already on the roster in such roles, though Covey is out of minor league options.
This runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s statement earlier this week that the Phillies were only looking for one more starter, though Coffey’s framing of the other potential additions as depth pieces wouldn’t detract from the projected starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez. If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, the Phillies will probably target only depth starters or multi-inning relievers going forward, as Coffey says “it’s unlikely” the team would pivot to another top-tier hurler.
In term of larger pitching expenditures, the Phillies might be saving some money for Wheeler, as Gelb writes that the team plans to discuss an extension at some point this offseason, if possibly closer to Spring Training. 2024 is the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact Wheeler signed during the 2019-20 offseason, and though Wheeler turns 34 in May, it’s easy to see why the Phillies are interested in a longer relationship. The righty has been excellent over his four years in Philadelphia, posting a 3.06 ERA over 629 1/3 innings and twice meriting top-six finishes in NL Cy Young voting.
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Dodgers Interested In Trading For Dylan Cease
The Dodgers and White Sox have discussed the possibility of Dylan Cease heading to Los Angeles, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. There isn’t any indication that a trade is particularly close, or whether or not this was a due diligence inquiry from the Dodgers given the club’s obvious need for pitching.
While the White Sox aren’t exactly rebuilding, new GM Chris Getz has directly said that he is open to trade offers as the Sox look for ways to address their many needs. Thursday’s trade of Aaron Bummer to the Braves saw Chicago pick up at least starting middle infielder (Nicky Lopez) and perhaps two (Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster) new arms for the starting rotation, bringing some depth onto a depleted roster.
Apart from trading Luis Robert Jr., dealing Cease would be the biggest move the White Sox could make to quickly add a lot more talent to the organization. MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored Cease’s trade market, citing 14 teams that make sense as trade suitors given Cease’s past quality and his relatively inexpensive price tag over two remaining arbitration-eligible seasons. Cease is projected for an $8.8MM salary in 2024, so even if a big performance next year raises his 2025 salary significantly, that still adds up to two seasons of front-of-the-rotation pitching for around $22MM.
Over three full seasons as a starter, Cease was solid in 2021, outstanding in 2022, and then fairly ordinary last year, struggling to a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. A 4.10 SIERA is a little more flattering, as Cease’s .330 BABIP and 69.4% strand rate certainly contributed to his issues, plus it is fair to wonder if he was affected by the overall malaise of the Southsiders’ disastrous 101-loss season. Cease’s subpar walk rates and his tendency (apart from in 2022) to surrender hard contact are red flags, but there’s still a lot to like about the right-hander as he enters his age-28 season.
From the Dodgers’ perspective, Cease represents a much surer thing than most every other pitcher in their projected 2024 rotation. Walker Buehler returns from a 2023 season entirely lost to Tommy John surgery, Dustin May will miss at least the first half of 2024 due to flexor tendon surgery, and swingman Ryan Yarbrough is the only other experienced arm within a pitching mix that includes a lot of rookies and second-year pitchers. Bobby Miller has claim on one rotation spot behind Buehler, but Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are all varying degrees of question marks.
Trading from this pitching depth might be a risk for Los Angeles, given all the uncertainty about their rotation. However, on paper, this is still a good crop of young arms that would be attractive to other teams, particularly a club like the White Sox in need of controllable pitching. Speculatively, one would imagine Miller is off-limits for the Dodgers in trade talks, but moving one or even two of the other pitchers might be feasible for a Los Angeles club that clearly wants to win now. Or, L.A. might try to tempt the Sox with some of its many quality position players in the minors — top prospects Dalton Rushing and Diego Cartaya might have particular appeal to Chicago since the Sox are very thin in the catching ranks.
Braves Interested In Sonny Gray
The Braves have interest in Sonny Gray, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) describes Atlanta as “one of the top suitors” for the right-hander’s services. The Twins (Gray’s former team), Cardinals, and Phillies have all been linked to the free agent at various points this winter, though Philadelphia is probably off the board after re-signing Aaron Nola earlier today.
Intriguingly, Morosi and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Atlanta also made a push to sign Nola, indicating that the Braves have their eyes on a big rotation upgrade. Reports from last week suggested that the Braves were targeting pitching help, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote earlier today that “at least front-line starter” seems to be on Atlanta’s wishlist
As Rosenthal and others have observed since Friday’s non-tender deadline, the Braves made a flurry of cuts to their arbitration class, as a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders resulted in 10 open spots on the 40-man roster and almost $14MM shaved from the budget. The Braves were planning to increase payroll anyway in 2024, yet naturally every dollar counts in a situation where Atlanta might have to outbid other teams for a top free agent hurler.
MLB Trade Rumors projected a four-year, $90MM deal for Gray, who ranked ninth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents. The three-time All-Star has been solid for most of his 11-year career, but 2023 was arguably Gray’s best season, as he delivered a 2.79 ERA over 184 innings for the Twins and finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting. While Gray’s past injury history is a little checkered, his performance last year likely helped calm some doubts over whether or not Gray can remain a productive and durable arm as he enters his age-34 season.
It is possible that the Braves view Gray as, at the very least, a successor to Charlie Morton as the rotation’s veteran stalwart. Morton came to Atlanta in advance of his age-37 season and has been very effective over his three seasons with the team, to the point that the Braves exercised their $20MM club option to bring Morton back for 2024. Morton is now 40 years old and often considering retirement, while Max Fried can be a free agent next winter, so Atlanta could use another longer-term pitcher to pair alongside Spencer Strider.
Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has been pretty measured in his free agent pursuits in his six years running the front office. Marcell Ozuna‘s four-year, $65MM deal is easily the largest contract the Braves have given out in the Anthopoulos era, with most of their other signings trending towards one- or two-year deals with experienced veterans (i.e. Kenley Jansen, Josh Donaldson, Morton’s initial deal). Because the Braves surpassed the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they’d also have to give up two 2024 draft picks and $1MM in international draft pool money to sign a qualifying-offer rejecting free agent like Gray.
However, it could be that this is simply an extra price that Anthopoulos is willing to pay to bolster the rotation. While the Braves’ starting pitching has been more than solid in recent years, it has fallen short in the playoffs the last two years, plus the Braves navigated a lot of rotation injuries last year in particular. Since there’s no indication that Atlanta’s powerful lineup is going to slow down, improving the pitching staff might be the last step necessary in getting the Braves back to the World Series.