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How Much More Do The Padres Have To Spend?

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After exceeding the luxury tax limit in each of the last two seasons, the Padres aren’t slowing down their spending.  Signing Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM deal was the splashiest move of a busy offseason, but San Diego also made significant investments to re-sign Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez, as well as bring in other new talents in Seth Lugo and Matt Carpenter.  The Padres also checked in on any number of other players, including Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Christian Vazquez, Jose Abreu, Kodai Senga, Chris Bassitt, and Nathan Eovaldi.

The result is a projected $249.4MM payroll for 2023 is the highest in club history, as well as estimated tax number of roughly $266.6MM.  However, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, “people familiar with the team’s thinking say the Padres are up against a self-prescribed spending limit.”  This limit isn’t necessarily absolute, since as Lin notes, the internal spending limit is ultimately up to owner Peter Seidler, who might decide to again green-light a big expenditure if it means getting the Padres a step closer to a World Series title.

Still, it would seem like payroll space might be at something of a premium, given San Diego’s most recent moves.  Adam Engel was signed to a one-year guaranteed deal, and while terms aren’t yet known, it’s safe to assume Engel isn’t getting more than the $2.3MM he was projected to earn in arbitration.  Brent Honeywell was signed to a split contract, while Wilmer Font and Eric Hanhold were inked to minor league deals.  Naturally, all teams (no matter the payroll) look for lower-cost depth as the offseason goes on, but the Padres still have some notable needs that would require a bigger fix.

President of baseball operations AJ Preller is no stranger to creative trades, so the Padres could look to address those needs while freeing up some salary at the same time.  For instance, the Padres have at least some openness to moving infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has a $7MM luxury tax number (based on average annual value) and who is owed $25MM over next two seasons.  Trent Grisham has also been floated as a possible trade candidate, though Grisham is among the less-expensive members of San Diego’s roster.  Dating back to last season, there has long been speculation that Blake Snell (owed $16MM in 2023) could be dealt, even if such a move wouldn’t help fix the depth issues in the Padres’ rotation.

Between trades and promotions, the Padres’ farm system has lost a lot of its depth; Baseball America rated the Padres only 23rd of 30 teams in its midseason organizational talent rankings.  As such, this could complicate the concept of San Diego attaching a prospect or two to an undesirable contract in trade talks.  For instance, Drew Pomeranz missed all of 2022 recovering from flexor tendon surgery, and the reliever is owed $10MM in 2023.  A rebuilding team could be enticed to take Pomeranz’s deal off the Padres’ books if some minor league talent was added as a sweetener, except San Diego might not have the prospects to spare.

Diamondbacks Considering Selling Minority Share Of Franchise

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With the Nationals and Angels possibly being sold within the coming months, the Diamondbacks could also be making a portion of their franchise available.  According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, D’Backs managing general partner Ken Kendrick is weighing the possibility of “selling a significant, but still minority share” of the team.

Kendrick is reportedly waiting until after the Angels’ sale is finalized to further explore the possibility of selling the minority stake.  This would seem to suggest that Kendrick might reach out to Angels bidders who fall short in their quest for full ownership of the Halos, as such a bidder (particularly one based in Southern California) might have interest in gaining another foothold in an MLB ownership group with a D’Backs club that is just a short flight away from the greater Los Angeles area.

Majority control of the Diamondbacks is owned by a four-person investment group that took over the club in 2004 from initial majority owner Jerry Colangelo.  Kendrick is the managing general partner of the four-person group, and acts as the public face of the group as well as MLB’s designated control person for the D’Backs franchise.  The exact breakdown of the franchise’s minority owners isn’t known, though the team told The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan in April 2020 that “around 10” minority partners.  That came after a push by Kendrick to consolidate the Diamondbacks’ number of minority partners, which led to a lawsuit filed against the organization by three of the minority owners.

This latest effort to find a new minority owner could be part of Kendrick’s same consolidation plan.  Also, given how the sale is still only a consideration and possibly contingent on what happens with the Angels, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Kendrick’s group might view selling a minority share as the first step in selling the D’Backs as a whole.  That said, buying a minority share in a team can be a path to a larger change in ownership.  Back in June, the Guardians finalized a sale of roughly 25-30% of the team to David Blitzer, and the deal reportedly contains a clause that would allow Blitzer to buy a majority stake in the Cleveland franchise in 2028.

Forbes Magazine approximated the Diamondbacks as being worth $1.38 billion in their most recent (March 2022) listings of Major League Baseball franchise values.  The most recent teams sold were the Mets ($2.4 billion) and Royals ($1 billion) in 2020, though it can be expected that the Nationals and Angels will continue to drive those numbers upwards.  There has been speculation that it will take over $2 billion to buy the Nats, while the Angels might be able to clear the Mets’ total or perhaps even get closer to $3 billion.

During the Winter Meetings, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said that the league hoped to have the Angels’ sale completed by Opening Day, though there hasn’t been any particular news on that front.  Nightengale writes that the Opening Day deadline doesn’t seem likely, and that interested parties are still being allowed to bid — just this past week, Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob said he was also considering bidding on the Angels.  As such, it could be some time yet before that deal is done, which gives the Diamondbacks more time to monitor the situation.

The Best Remaining Free Agent At Each Position

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The lingering Carlos Correa saga hangs over the free agency market, but beyond him the bulk of the free agents have found new homes for the 2023 season and beyond. While we won’t be seeing any monster deals from here, there are still a handful of players that could still have a positive impact on a new team. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best (in this writer’s view anyway) remaining free agents at each position.

For a full list of the remaining free agents, go here.

Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto: 158 1/3 innings pitched, 3.35 ERA, 5.8 SO/9, 1.9 BB/9. Cueto enjoyed something of a resurgence last year for the White Sox, putting together his best campaign since 2016. His strikeout rate declined considerably but he offset that by displaying some of the best control of his career. He’ll turn 37 in February, so likely will only command a one-year deal but teams in need of a veteran arm to stabilize the backend of the rotation could certainly do worse than adding Cueto. The Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays and Reds have all had reported interest in the veteran right-hander at various stages of the off-season, while teams like the Angels have shown recent interest in adding another starter.

Relief Pitcher: Andrew Chafin: 57 1/3 IP, 2.83 ERA, 10.5 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9. Chafin’s been a quality left-handed reliever for the past few seasons now, the last of which came with the Tigers. He’s effective against both left and right-handed hitters, and should fit in as a late-inning arm wherever he winds up landing. Control was an issue earlier in his career, but he seems to have tidied that up and posted a mark below 8% for the second-straight season. That figure came with a quality 27.6% strikeout rate. After declining a $6.5MM option on his contract with the Tigers, he should be able to top that on the open market on a multi-year deal.

Catcher: Gary Sanchez: 471 plate appearances, .205/.282/.377, 16 home runs. The Yankees flipped Sanchez to Twins last winter after growing frustrated with his performance over the previous few seasons. Sanchez undoubtedly has talent, as evidenced by the 53 home runs and 143 wRC+ he compiled between 2016-17. He’s not come close to replicating that in the years since, slashing .202/.295/.427 for a below-average wRC+ of 96 between 2018-22. Sanchez has never been regarded as one of the top defensive catchers, but did post his best framing numbers per Fangraphs’ metric since 2018, and gave up the fewest wild pitches of his career (excluding the shortened 2020 season and 2016, when he didn’t play a full year). While a number of teams have filled their vacancy at catcher, the likes of the Red Sox, Tigers and Marlins could be among the teams interested.

First base: Trey Mancini: 587 PA, .239/.319/.391, 18 HR. Mancini split time between the Orioles and Astros in 2022, putting together a solid enough campaign at the plate. His 104 wRC+ in the past two seasons indicates he’s just four percent above the league average at the plate. For a first base/corner outfielder that’s unlikely to command a significant guarantee in free agency, but Mancini could still land a multi-year guarantee. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Mancini belongs in that outfield group of such an article, but any acquiring team would surely have him splitting time between first base and the outfield. Mancini was worth 2 Outs Above Average in 323 innings at first in 2022, the best mark of any of the positions he played.

Second base: Josh Harrison: 425 PA, .256/.317/.370, 7 HR. The 35-year-old Harrison recovered from a slow start to finish with a respectable season for the White Sox, finishing with a slightly below average 98 wRC+. That came after he was hitting just .167/.248/.255 on June 2. He doesn’t offer much in the way of power, but he provides a solid contact bat who can play all over the infield. Harrison logged most of his defensive time at second base, where he was worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved. He was also worth 3 DRS at third base, and can fill in at short and the corner outfield spots at a pinch. Teams in need of a veteran utility player could do worse than adding Harrison on a one-year deal.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus: 577 PA, .249/.303/.404, 17 HR. Andrus started the year in Oakland, but was released in August and finished the season with the White Sox. The 34-year-old has a bit of pop in his bat, and grades out well defensively at shortstop, where he was worth 3 Outs Above Average in 2022. He may very well be the best infielder left on the open market, yet it’s been a quiet winter for Andrus, with little reported movement in his market. Obviously Correa has not officially signed a contract, but for the purposes of this article we’ll assume he’s heading to the Mets in which case Andrus would be the next best option for teams on the hunt for a shortstop.

Third base: Brian Anderson: 383 PA, .222/.311/.346, 8 HR. Anderson put up the worst offensive numbers of his five full seasons with the Marlins in 2022, finishing up with a 90 wRC+. That was the second-straight season of offensive decline for the 29-year-old, who put up a 115 wRC+ between 2018-20. He’s split time between third base and right field in recent times, grading out well in both until 2022. Last year, he was worth -4 DRS after picking up 12 DRS over the previous three seasons at the hot corner. The decline was enough for the Marlins to non-tender him this winter ahead of his final year of arbitration, but he could make sense as a buy-low bounceback candidate for any number of teams.

Left/Right field: Jurickson Profar: 658 PA, .243/.331/.391, 15 HR. Profar is arguably the top remaining free agent available. The 29-year-old (30 in February) puts the ball in play plenty, as evidenced by his quality 15.7% strikeout rate. He also takes plenty of walks and has a bit of pop in the bat. A former middle infielder, the Padres played him exclusively in left last year and he picked up 2 Defensive Runs Saved. He turned down an $7.5MM in favor of a $1MM buyout this winter to hit the open market in search of a multi-year deal. The Rangers and Yankees make sense as teams looking for left field help, while the Marlins and Rockies could also make sense.

Center field: Albert Almora: 235 PA, .223/.282/.349, 5 HR. The center field market was not deep to begin with, and is now largely limited to glove first options. Almora doesn’t pose much of a threat with the bat, as evidenced by his 71 wRC+, but he was worth 8 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield for the Reds, with four of those coming in center field. He’s unlikely to be a starting option for teams but would make sense as a glove-first bench option.

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz: 507 PA, .234/.313/.337, 10 HR. After a number of years of elite production at the plate, 2022 was the first below average year for Cruz since 2007 (per wRC+). He’s now 42, so betting on him bouncing back is a risky one, but he mashed 89 home runs and compiled a 146 wRC+ between 2019-21 so it’s not like this has been a steady decline over a number of years. With that being said, he hasn’t played the field at all since 2018 so is exclusively limited to DH duties. It was reported a few days ago that he has received offers for the 2023 season though, so it seems he will be back for a 19th big league season.

Tigers Sign Aneurys Zabala To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have added right-hander Aneurys Zabala on a minor league deal, according to his MLB transaction log. Zabala was designated for assignment by the Marlins in September last year, and became a free agent at the end of the season.

Zabala, 26, had a very brief stint in the majors last year for Miami, pitching in two games and throwing 2 2/3 scoreless innings. He spent most of the season at Triple-A, where he tossed 17 2/3 innings of of 9.51 ERA ball, where his strong 25.2% strikeout rate was offset by an unsightly 23.5% walk rate.

Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Mariners back in 2014, Zabala bounced around a few teams in addition to Seattle coming up through the minors, getting stints within the Dodgers, Reds and Phillies organizations, before landing with the Marlins. He’s flashed a 99 mph fastball, but has generally struggled with the walks. That became far more pronounced in 2022, as it’s tended to hover in the 12-15% range rather than the 23.5% mark it wound up at in 2022.

Marlins Letting Teams Know Four Of Their Starters Are Available

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The Marlins’ Pablo Lopez has often come up in trade rumors, but according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Lopez is just one of four starters that the Marlins are telling other teams are available in trade talks. The other three are Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. It’s been widely reported for quite some time that the Marlins were willing to tap into their pitching surplus in trades, but this sheds more light on who the Marlins are willing to trade and who’s seemingly off limits.

The Marlins have a solid stable of controllable pitching with ace Sandy Alcantara and youngster Braxton Garrett joining that quartet, as well as a group of young arms including Sixto Sanchez, Eury Perez and Max Meyer who should be able to help the big league club within the next few seasons. As such, there’s definitely a surplus of pitching in Miami and the team could well look to offload an arm to bolster their offense.

Last summer, it was reported that the Yankees came close to a deal that would’ve sent Lopez to the Bronx in a deal involving Gleyber Torres. It was also reported this winter that the Marlins and Rockies discussed a deal involving Cabrera and Brendan Rodgers, so it’s not secret that Miami is listening on some of their starters. Notably, both of the two players the Fish would have acquired in those trades are second basemen, but they’ve recently gone out and picked up Jean Segura to bolster their infield group.

Instead, the team could look to turn one of their starters into an outfielder. The Padres have been linked with adding another starter, and have reportedly shown a willingness to trade Trent Grisham, so there could be a match there. It’s also been reported that the Pirates are seeking young pitching to headline any deal for Bryan Reynolds, so if the Marlins are really keen to make a big splash perhaps floating Cabrera as part of a deal would get Pittsburgh’s attention.

With six years of control remaining, Cabrera, 24, would certainly be an attractive acquisition for pitching hungry teams. A former top-100 prospect, he tossed 71 2/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball for the Fish last year, with a solid 25.8% strikeout rate and an 11.3% walk rate.

Luzardo, 25, is hitting arbitration for the first time this year as a Super Two player, and is projected (via Matt Swartz) to make $2MM in 2023. He put together a 3.32 ERA over 100 1/3 innings with a very strong 30% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate. He missed about two-and-a-half months last season with a forearm strain, but a full season of his output would make for a quality starting pitcher. The left-hander is under control for four more years.

Rogers, 25, was excellent in 2021, but took a step back in 2022. The southpaw made the All Star game in ’21 during a season in which he threw 133 innings of 2.64 ERA ball. That was followed up by 107 innings of 5.47 ERA ball in ’22, as Rogers saw his strikeout rate drop by about 6% and his walk rate jump by a percentage point. He also saw his HR/FB rate jump from just 5% in 2021 to 13.2% last year. Rogers is under control for four more seasons, and is due to hit arbitration for the first time next winter.

Lopez, 27 in March, was a steady presence in the rotation for the Fish last season, hurling 180 innings of 3.75 ERA ball over 32 starts. He may not possess the upside of the three younger pitchers, but Lopez has been a consistent pitcher for a few years now, finishing up with ERAs of 3.61, 3.07 and 3.75 in the past three years. Projected to make $5.6MM through arbitration this year, he’s under control for another two seasons and would slot nicely into the middle of a lot of rotations around baseball.

Latest On The Yankees’ Left Field Plans

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The Yankees’ left field conundrum has been an ongoing topic of the off-season as the team mulls over whether or not to bring in someone through the trade market or free agency, or stick with their internal options.

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, the team’s preferred outcome would have been to retain Andrew Benintendi, but he wound up signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the White Sox. He reports that the Yankees would have gone to five years to get Benintendi were it not for the fact they’d signed starter Carlos Rodon to a six-year, $162MM pact. Sherman also reports that the team was “very involved” in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Daulton Varsho before they ultimately shifted him to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno.

The biggest available name the team has been connected to is Bryan Reynolds. He has requested a trade out of Pittsburgh, but it seems the Bucs have set a high asking price on their star outfielder and haven’t budged on that front. Nonetheless, Jon Heyman of the New York Post recently reported that the Yankees were one of the teams “consistently” interested in acquiring Reynolds. As a switch-hitter with three-years of team control remaining he’d certainly fit on their roster, but the Yankees may be reluctant to part with top prospects such as Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe to get a deal done.

It’s slim pickings on the free agent market at this point, but Sherman does note that the team has had some interest in Jurickson Profar. The switch-hitter was worth 2.5 fWAR for the Padres in 2022 and would be a solid option to upgrade their outfield stocks. Yet Oswaldo Cabrera was worth 1.5 fWAR in 44 games and Aaron Hicks the same in 130 games, so the team may not see Profar as enough of a needle-mover to commit to the multi-year deal he likely seeks. The same could be said of another left-handed bat in David Peralta, but it doesn’t appear there’s been much interest from the Yankees anyway.

Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reported in a recent mailbag that the team could forego external options and let Hicks and Cabrera battle it out in spring training for the starting job. While it isn’t the most exciting option for Yankees fans, there is some sense in it. The Yankees roster is strong enough to be in a good spot for the first three months of the season without an upgrade in left, so the team could see if Hicks can rebound or Cabrera can sustain his small sample of work over a longer period, before deciding whether or not to seek an external upgrade at the trade deadline.

Hicks had plenty of shortcomings in 2022, but he still walked at a strong 13.7% clip and if he can regain even a little bit of the power he’s showed in the past he could still be reasonably productive player. Cabrera was exceptional in the field last year, earning 9 Defensive Runs Saved in 278 2/3 outfield innings, while posting a 111 wRC+ at the plate. He also struggled mightily in the playoffs, going 2-for-28 with 12 strikeouts. In any event, he may have more value to the Yankees as someone who can play all over the field rather than in a fixed position, allowing the Yankees to spell some of their veterans on a more regular basis.

Estevan Florial is the other internal option that the Yankees will need to make a decision on. A toolsy former top-100 prospect, Florial has found opportunities few and far between over the past three seasons (just 63 plate appearances) but is out of options so can’t be sent to the minors without being exposed to waivers. He’s hit well at Triple-A and the Yankees could give him an extended run in the majors, but Sherman opines that the Yankees could trade him prior to the season opener. While his trade value won’t be particularly high anymore, plenty of teams – particularly rebuilding ones – would surely like to give him an extended opportunity in the big leagues to see if they can tap into his potential.

The Yankees have also been aggressive in recent weeks in stocking up on outfield depth in the minors. They’ve signed Willie Calhoun, Billy McKinney and Rafael Ortega to minor league deals, and Sherman notes they checked in on Kole Calhoun as well. Calhoun and McKinney look like depth pieces, but Ortega is an interesting add. He had a 122 wRC+ for the Cubs over 330 plate appearances in 2021, and while it dropped back to 96 in 2022 he does look to be a possible option for the Yankees. As a left-handed pull hitter, he could benefit from playing regularly in Yankee Stadium as well, so a strong spring could see him force his way into the team’s plans at the big league level.

Dodgers Sign Tayler Scott To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers have added some right-handed pitching depth, bringing in Tayler Scott on a minor league deal, per his MLB transaction log.

Scott, 30, appeared in eight games for the Padres last year, working to a 6.75 ERA over 12 innings. That came with a 22% strikeout mark and a 10.2% walk rate. In a more extended sample of work at Triple-A, Scott pitched 43 2/3 innings to the tune of a 4.53 ERA. He was claimed off waivers by the Phillies in September, but never made a big league appearance for them and was designated for assignment when the team announced the signing of Taijuan Walker last month.

One of two South African-born MLB players in history, Scott was drafted by the Cubs in the fifth round of the 2011 draft. He eventually got to the majors with the Mariners in 2019, but struggled that year across time with Seattle and the Orioles, working to a combined 14.33 ERA over 16 1/3 innings.

He spent the 2020-21 seasons in Japan, but returned last year on a minor league deal with the Padres. While the results in a small sample in the majors weren’t overly encouraging last year, he did combine a quality 30.4% strikeout rate with a 6.4% walk rate at Triple-A, so there might be some promise there for the Dodgers to try and tap into.

Tigers Notes: Harris, Soto, Offense, Bullpen

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The Tigers swung a trade with the Phillies earlier today, landing outfielder Matt Vierling, utilityman Nick Maton, and catcher Donny Sands in exchange for one of Detroit’s biggest trade chips.  Gregory Soto’s emergence as the Tigers’ closer resulted in two All-Star appearances in as many seasons, but the left-hander and the versatile Kody Clemens are now both part of Philadelphia’s organization.

Soto was arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, so the Tigers weren’t necessarily in any immediate rush to ship him elsewhere.  Back at the trade deadline, the Tigers put a high asking price on any Soto deal, and those demands didn’t change even after Scott Harris was hired as the team’s new president of baseball operations in September.  With the Phillies finally stepping up to satisfy Detroit’s ask for younger, controllable, and MLB-ready players, the trade was made.

“We felt like this deal was over the line for us,” Harris told reporters, including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.  “We wanted to make the deal now.  Performance next year, even in the first half of next year, is never a certainty. That would be another risk that we would’ve taken.  That’s not a comment on Gregory as a pitcher, it’s just a reality of performance in this industry….And we’re thrilled that we got back players who have a chance to help us in 2023 and beyond.”

Rival teams’ interest in the Tigers’ relief corps naturally continued into the winter.  Soto represents the second major reliever traded away from Detroit’s bullpen during Harris’ brief tenure, as Joe Jimenez was also dealt to the Braves in December.  Andrew Chafin is a free agent, but it doesn’t seem like a return to Detroit is in the cards, as Harris implied that a further left-handed addition to the pen could be a minor league signing.

“We are hard at work on” this new acquisition, Harris said.  “It may not be a major league deal, but [it’s] someone we’re excited about.  We also have some pitchers in the minor leagues who are on the verge of taking a step forward.”

Jake Higginbotham (acquired in the Jimenez deal), Sean Guenther, and Zach Logue are three of the left-handed relief options in the farm system who could be competing during Spring Training for a bullpen job.  Tyler Alexander is currently the only southpaw penciled into a spot on the Opening Day lineup.  As for the bullpen as a whole, Harris said the Tigers will use Spring Training as a testing ground to see which incumbents or new faces could fill particular roles in the depleted bullpen.

The Tigers are betting they have enough relief depth to make up for losing so many prominent names from their 2022 bullpen, and naturally there is some risk involved is trading from what was basically the club’s only bright spot in an otherwise disastrous season.  While the relievers by and large did their job, the rotation was crushed by injuries, and the position players almost entirely failed to hit.  The result was a 66-96 record, and a huge setback for a team that invested a lot of money last offseason into a return to contention.

Former general manager Al Avila was fired by the Tigers in August, and Harris has now been tasked with filling a lot of holes up and down the roster.  To this end, trading from the bullpen depth was the new PBO’s most logical move.

“The bullpen was an area of strength for us but we have to address areas of weakness, too,” Harris said. “We’ve done a lot of work to add to our pitching and defense to stabilize this group.  And we have to reshape the offense.  I’ve been talking about it since the day I got here.”

Vierling and Maton each made their big league debuts in 2021, and have been used in part-time roles throughout their two MLB seasons.  The duo stand out as possible everyday additions to Detroit’s lineup, though their versatility allows either player to be used almost anywhere on the diamond.  Vierling played mostly outfield in Philadelphia, but in all positions, and also saw some work as a first baseman, second baseman, and third baseman.  Maton has mostly been a middle infielder, but he has also seen time in both corner outfield positions and at third base.  As noted by Harris, Vierling and Maton are “comfortable both on the grass and in the dirt….Those types of players are hard to find and we feel we’ve added two who have already performed in the big leagues.”

Mariners Acquire Justin Topa

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The Mariners announced a swap of right-handers, as Justin Topa was acquired from the Brewers in exchange for minor leaguer Joseph Hernandez.

Topa has pitched in each of the last three MLB seasons, albeit in the limited fashion of 18 1/3 innings over 17 total games.  The righty has an 8.35 ERA for his brief career, thanks to two particularly disastrous outings in 2021 that saw Topa charged with nine earned runs over 1 1/3 frames of work.

A flexor tendon strain sidelined Topa for most of the 2021 season, and flexor tendon surgery resulted in another trip to the 60-day injured list last season.  Since the start of the 2021 campaign, Topa has thrown only 45 1/3 total innings in the majors and minors (10 2/3 IP in MLB, 34 2/3 in the minors).  Injury absences have unfortunately been the story of a career that began as a 17th-round pick for the Pirates in the 2013 draft, as Topa has previously undergone two Tommy John surgeries.

Between all the health issues and even brief drops out of affiliated baseball (Topa played for indy ball teams for parts of the 2017 and 2018 seasons), Topa is a hard player to evaluate as he enters his age-32 season.  However, he immediately drew attention as a possible late-blooming gem when he made his MLB debut in 2020, and posted a 2.35 ERA with 12 strikeouts and no walks over his first 7 2/3 innings.  This performance earned Topa a spot on Milwaukee’s postseason roster, and he threw two scoreless innings in his lone appearance.

A hard-thrower who averaged 97.5mph on his fastball in that debut season, Topa’s velocity fell to a 95.7mph average over the last two seasons.  While we’re dealing with small sample sizes all around in these three brief bits of Major League exposure for Topa, his injury situation explains the velo drop, and the next step will be seeing if he can regain any velocity now that the flexor tendon issue seems to be behind him.

The Mariners were intrigued enough by Topa to spend a 40-man roster spot on him, and Seattle also parted ways with a 22-year-old coming off a breakout season at single-A.  Hernandez posted a 3.39 ERA over 116 2/3 innings in 2022, with an impressive 29.4% strikeout rate but an underwhelming 11.1% walk rate.  This does at least represent some improved control from earlier in Hernandez’s career, and the righty’s swing-and-miss numbers indicated how dangerous he could be with improved command.

Hernandez started 22 of 24 games in 2022, and the Brewers will certainly continue to give the right-hander chances as as a starting pitcher.  If the control problems persist, Hernandez’s ultimate future (and path to the big leagues) might come as a reliever, and he possesses an excellent slider that could be even more devastating in a limited role.

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