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Orix Buffaloes To Post Masataka Yoshida

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The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to post outfielder Masataka Yoshida, according to a report from Yahoo Japan, making him eligible to explore opportunities with MLB clubs. (hat tip to JJ Cooper from Baseball America and Jason Coskrey on Twitter.) The Japanese-language link lists the Yankees, Mariners, and Blue Jays as those with interest.

Yoshida, 29, made his NPB debut with the Buffaloes in 2016 and has since established himself as a key contributor at the plate. In 2022, he played in 119 games, hitting 21 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .335/.447/.561. That level of production and Yoshida’s age should lead to him garnering plenty of interest from North American teams.

This year’s market for free agent outfielders isn’t huge in terms of quantity. MLBTR’s list of the top free agents featured Aaron Judge in the top spot and Brandon Nimmo at number nine. Those guys are both likely to receive nine-figure deals, but then there’s only a few guys capable of everyday jobs in the middle of the list. Joc Pederson accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Giants, leaving Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger and Jurickson Profar as some of the few mid-market options. Then there are some guys likely to require less cost but with injury risks, such as Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley.

Teams will likely have wide variance in how they evaluate Yoshida, but it’s unlikely he will earn a contract that rivals the top-market guys. Seiya Suzuki was another highly-touted slugger who was posted a year ago and he eventually signed with the Cubs for five years and $85MM. He was 27 years old at the time, two years younger than Yoshida is now. That likely makes it difficult for Yoshida to beat Suzuki’s guarantee, though it’s possible some team values him significantly higher than the Cubs valued Suzuki. For the teams that miss out on the top free agent outfielders, Yoshida should add an interesting new option for the next tier of the market.

The fact that the Blue Jays and Mariners are two of the teams listed as being interested in Yoshida is quite interesting, given that those two clubs swung a trade earlier today to send Teoscar Hernandez from Toronto to Seattle. That gives the Blue Jays a clear opening in their outfield mix that they could slot Yoshida into. They do have George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Whit Merrifield, though Merrifield took over as the everyday second baseman down the stretch and could play there again in 2023. They’ve already been connected to Nimmo since the departure of Hernandez but Yoshida could also make sense.

For the Mariners, they now have Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez taking up two spots in their outfield mix, with Jesse Winker, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Kyle Lewis on hand as options for a third spot. Winker has been mentioned as being available in trade discussions, but it would be a surprise to see the club fill out that last outfield position and block all of its young options from a path into the regular lineup.

For the Yankees, they have a clear need in the outfield with both Judge and Benintendi having reached free agency recently. They have Harrison Bader in place for center field but will likely be looking to add two outfielders before Opening Day. They have Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks on hand but Stanton has largely been a designated hitter for a while and can’t be counted on for everyday action in the outfield while Hicks is coming off a second straight disappointing year at the plate.

Once Yoshida is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Buffaloes, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Buffaloes a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Buffaloes for 2023.

Rangers Hire Will Venable As Associate Manager

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The Rangers announced Will Venable is joining their coaching staff, working under new manager Bruce Bochy as associate manager. The former big leaguer had been working as bench coach with the Red Sox.

Venable, 40, has spent the past five seasons working on a big league staff. He served as a base coach with the Cubs from 2018-20. Venable, who had interviewed for a managerial vacancy in Boston during the 2020-21 offseason, ended up being tabbed as bench coach under Alex Cora — who returned as manager after being dismissed and suspended for the 2020 campaign.

The Princeton graduate has never managed in the big leagues (aside from a brief interim stint while Cora was sidelined by COVID-19 this year), but he’s frequently been regarded as a manager-in-waiting. Venable has interviewed for a number of lead positions in recent winters, sitting down with the Tigers, A’s, Astros, Cubs and Giants in prior offseasons. He reportedly drew some attention from the Royals in their search last month, but it’s unclear whether they ever met with him before tabbing Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro.

With all the managerial positions filled, it looked likely Venable would reprise his role as Cora’s right-hand man for a third season. Instead, he’ll make the jump to Arlington to work with Bochy in the veteran skipper’s return to the dugout after three years. Venable was a prospect in the San Diego farm system during Bochy’s time as manager in 2005-06. Bochy was already in San Francisco by the time Venable made the big leagues, but he did overlap there with Chris Young. The Texas general manager was a teammate of Venable’s in San Diego through 2010, and the former outfielder also had a brief playing stint as a Ranger late in the 2015 campaign.

Astros Sign Austin Davis To Minor League Deal

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The Astros have informed reporters, including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, that they have signed left-hander Austin Davis to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Davis, 30 in February, was drafted by the Phillies and made his MLB debut with them in 2018. He’s since bounced around quite a bit, spending time with the Pirates, Red Sox and Twins.

In 2022, he saw his most extensive big league action, logging 56 innings between Boston and Minnesota. In that time he posted a 5.79 ERA with a decent 24.2% strikeout rate but an unfortunate 12.5% walk rate. It’s possible that there was a bit of bad luck in there from his .331 batting average on balls in play and 63.6% strand rate. Advanced metrics liked him better but not by too much, with Davis earning a 4.59 xERA, 4.02 FIP and 4.13 SIERA. The Twins designated him for assignment in September.

Despite those numbers, Davis might have a path to joining the Astros since they are light on southpaws in the bullpen. The only left-handed relievers on the 40-man roster at the moment are Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski. Taylor spent a decent chunk of 2022 on the IL due to elbow discomfort and was optioned to the minors at the end of his rehab assignment. Mushinski was up and down all year, only getting into seven big league games. It doesn’t seem like either one is a lock for a spot with next year’s bullpen, meaning there could be an opening for Davis to work his way in there. He’s out of options but has between two and three years of MLB service, meaning he can be retained for future seasons via arbitration if he earns a roster spot and keeps it.

Astros Unlikely To Hire GM Before End Of Year

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Despite the Astros cruising to a 106-56 record in 2022, rumors began to trickle out during the season that there was some tension between owner Jim Crane and general manager James Click, with the latter on an expiring contract. Despite those reports, the assumption of many was that the success of the team would compel the parties to work something out eventually. However, despite the Astros making the ALCS for a sixth straight year and winning their second World Series title in that time, Click was eventually fired just a few days after the title celebration, as was assistant GM Scott Powers.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan provides a deep dive behind the scenes, taking a look at how such an unusual situation came to be. Interested readers are encouraged to check out the full piece for all the details, but the essence is that Crane didn’t like Click’s approach to the job as much as he liked that of Jeff Luhnow. Luhnow, of course, was fired after the sign-stealing scandal was revealed, with Click quickly hired to replace him.

Over the past year, Crane has seemingly taken a more hands-on approach to the team. He apparently was the one who closed the deal to bring Verlander back for 2022. He also felt the organization needed more “baseball men,” bringing in former big leaguers Jeff Bagwell and Reggie Jackson to take part in front office meetings. He also reportedly blocked a deadline deal, on the advice of manager Dusty Baker, that would have sent José Urquidy to the Cubs for Willson Contreras.

With Click and Powers now gone, it seems as though Crane is running the show, at least to some degree. Bill Firkus, recently promoted to assistant general manager, seems to be handling day-to-day operations. Andrew Ball and Charles Cook, who also have the title of assistant general manager, are also involved to some degree. But according to Passan, Crane personally negotiated the three-year, $34.5MM deal given to reliever Rafael Montero last week and he seems to be directly involved in Verlander’s free agency yet again.

It might continue in this ad hoc fashion for some time as well, with Crane telling Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that he plans to take his time with his search for Click’s replacement, probably not making a hire until the calendar flips to 2023. “I’m going to take my time on it this time,” Crane says. “Last time, I was in a little crunch. I didn’t have a GM and didn’t have a manager. We’ve got a pretty solid baseball ops team that’s been around. Firkus and Charles Cook have been with the team a while. … We’re going to interview a bunch of people and see where we land with that. I don’t expect anything to happen before the first of the year.”

Passan floats some names as candidates who cover a spectrum of styles. Sig Mejdal, formerly of the Astros but now with the Orioles, is known for his expertise on the analytical side of the game. While former player and manager Brad Ausmus is thrown out as someone with an arguably more traditional approach. Passan adds that Ausmus was recently in Houston and met with Bagwell, though it’s unclear if they discussed the open GM position. Even when a new GM is hired, all signs seem to point to Crane staying heavily involved.

There’s still a lot of uncertainty in terms of what lies ahead for the Astros, but the idea of them turning their backs on their calculated approach has the potential to alter the trajectory of the franchise. The club’s current golden age has been achieved not by wild spending, but largely by player development and quantitative analysis. They’ve never given a free agent a deal longer than four years and only crossed the competitive balance tax threshold once, in 2020. Justin Verlander took a sizeable investment but the rest of their rotation was homegrown, either through the draft (Lance McCullers Jr.) or international free agency (Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Urquidy).

The position player core is similar, with most of the lineup having been drafted by the club and sometimes subsequently extended. Even when players do reach free agency, like George Springer and Carlos Correa, the club has been savvy at replacing them internally. Their primary shortstop and center fielder this year were Jeremy Peña, a third round draft choice playing in his rookie year, and Chas McCormick, a 21st round pick playing in his second season.

That makes it especially eyebrow-raising that Bagwell, who apparently is one of Crane’s most trusted advisors, criticized the club’s player development system. From an outside perspective, it would seem that the Astros’ recent run of success would be credited in large part to their successes in that department, but perhaps Bagwell and Crane don’t see it exactly that way.

Though it seems the Astros are making a pivot on the heels of their second World Series title, we likely won’t know for some time exactly how drastic the changes are. Perhaps any suggestion of a sea change is overblown and the club will continue largely on a familiar path. Though if they do indeed move away from what has made them so successful, it would make for a stunning and fascinating turn of events. For now, the Astros are pushing forward without Click and Powers, and without Pete Putila and Oz Ocampo, two front office members who recently left for the Giants and Marlins, respectively. It seems that Crane is now the one driving the bus, and time will tell where he takes it.

Blue Jays Interested In Brandon Nimmo

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The Blue Jays subtracted from their outfield mix earlier today when they dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners. In the wake of that deal, they are now showing interest in adding free agent Brandon Nimmo, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins spoke with members of the media on a conference call after the deal and, though he didn’t mention Nimmo by name, nothing he said would seem to preclude the club from such a bold move. “We’re in a better position to do so now from a resource and from a playing time and recruitment standpoint,” Atkins tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on the subject of adding a free agent outfielder. One option that’s on the table is acquiring a center fielder and pushing George Springer over the now-vacated right field position. “I know George will be open to it,” Atkins tells Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

If the Blue Jays are indeed interested in adding a free agent center fielder, they could hardly do better than Nimmo. Excluding Aaron Judge since he’s more of a right fielder, Nimmo is the clear top option available on the center field market. Then it’s a steep drop down to the next tier, consisting of veterans coming off injury-plagued seasons such as Kevin Kiermaier and Adam Duvall.

Having spent his entire career with the Mets thus far, Nimmo is a quality hitter, primarily for his ability to get on base. His career walk rate is 13.6%, well above the 2022 league average of 8.2%. That’s helped him produce a batting line of .269/.385/.441 for a wRC+ of 134, indicating he’s been 34% above league average in his time in the majors. He’s also been generally regarded as a quality outfielder, though perhaps not elite. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a 5 last year but a -3 in 2022. Ultimate Zone Rating had him at 3.4 in 2021 but -0.4 this year. Outs Above Average, however, had him at a 3 last year and a 6 this year.

Given that excellent production and his ability to also play the corners, Nimmo would likely be able to upgrade the outfield of the majority of teams around the league. It’s possible that Nimmo’s left-handed bat makes him extra appealing to the Blue Jays given their lineup is predominantly right-handed, though that wasn’t really a problem for them in 2022. Against right-handed pitching this year, the club collectively hit .266/.329/.432. That amounts to a 118 wRC+, indicating they were 18% above league average. Only the Dodgers at 122 wRC+ and Mets at 119 wRC+ were better against northpaws, which doesn’t suggest the club needs to make a left-handed bat a specific target.

Regardless, there’s an argument to moving Springer out of center field and into a corner, where the rigors of the position are generally agreed to be lesser. Springer is now 33, more than three years older than Nimmo, who is 29 and turning 30 in March. He’s also dealt with his fair share of injuries since joining the Blue Jays, only getting into 211 total games over the past two years. He’ll recovering from elbow surgery this offseason but is expected to be recovered in time for Spring Training. The advanced defensive metrics have him hovering around average in recent years, not terribly dissimilar to Nimmo. Of course, Nimmo has also dealt with injuries throughout his career, but his only significant absence of the past three seasons was a two-month stay on the IL in 2021 due to a left index finger contusion.

Since the Blue Jays aren’t the only team that could benefit from Nimmo’s skills, they will have competition and he won’t be cheap. The Mets are already known to be interested in bringing him back to Queens. MLBTR recently predicted a contract of $110MM over five years, which works out to $22MM per season. After today’s trade, Roster Resource puts Toronto’s 2023 payroll at $176MM. That means they’re already on track for an increase over last year’s franchise record Opening Day figure of $171MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. A few non-tenders could bump that down a hair but it still means that the club will have to spend into uncharted territory, or make a sizable subtraction, to make a significant free agent splash. Though they upgraded their bullpen today by acquiring Erik Swanson, they likely still need to do some work on the rotation as well. Regardless of where the final number ends up, Atkins seems to think they have the funds necessary to address their needs. He told Nicholson-Smith that today’s trade added payroll flexibility but “we didn’t need it.”

Braves Unlikely To Pursue Big Name Shortstops If Swanson Signs Elsewhere

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The Braves have had more success in extending young, core players than any team in recent memory, but for a second straight offseason they’re facing the potential departure of a longtime regular who’s helped to anchor the infield. Dansby Swanson, like Freddie Freeman before him, reached the open market without signing an extension, has rejected a qualifying offer and is now free to field interest from the game’s other 29 teams.

Atlanta reportedly offered Swanson an extension in the neighborhood of $100MM at some point over the course of the season, but the widespread expectation is for him to outpace that guarantee by a comfortable margin. (MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $154MM contract on last week’s Top 50 free agent list.) One of the biggest questions on the minds of Braves fans is just what the team will do at shortstop. Can Swanson be retained? And, if not, where does the team turn? The market offers a trio of high-end alternatives in the form of Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports, however, it’s unlikely that the Braves will make a legitimate play to sign any of the big free-agent shortstops other than Swanson. President of baseball ops Alex Anthopoulos went out of his way to mention Vaughn Grissom and Orlando Arcia as in-house alternatives at last week’s GM Meetings, and Rosenthal adds that the Braves are generally reluctant to add a major salary that “takes up too high a percentage of their payroll” — including oft-speculated fit Jacob deGrom.

Braves fans were understandably heartened by CEO Terry McGuirk’s comments about Atlanta growing to have one of the game’s five largest payrolls, but what McGuirk didn’t stress was just how close the Braves already are to reaching that territory before making a single addition. Last month at MLBTR, I pointed out that for the Braves to make even one high-priced acquisition, they’d need to exceed the luxury-tax threshold; making a pair of big-name additions — or signing one premier free agent and, say, extending Max Fried — could shatter the threshold and send the team barreling into at least the second tier of luxury penalization.

As things currently stand, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects the Braves to be less than $5MM away from tier one of the luxury tax . They’d be a first-time luxury payor, so the penalty on the first $20MM by which they cross that threshold would “only” be 20%. The penalty on the next $20MM would jump to a 32% tax.

We’ll get back to the shortstop quandary, but it’s worth digressing and taking a deeper look at just what the luxury tax realities might look like for the Braves.

To put this into more specific context, we can use deGrom as an example. Many believe that the four-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young winner could secure an average annual value of $40MM or more this winter. A $40MM AAV on deGrom would push the Braves’ luxury-tax bill up into the $268MM range — an overage of roughly $35MM. The 20% tax on that first $20MM would come out to $4MM, and the 32% tax they’d be paying on the next $15MM would be another $4.8MM. So to sign deGrom for a $40MM AAV, the Braves would effectively need to be willing to pay $48.8MM in total — at least for the upcoming season. With Justin Verlander seeking a deal comparable to that of Max Scherzer, this can all be applied to him as well.

It’s a similar, but not quite so extreme case with Swanson. Using the $22MM AAV on MLBTR’s predicted contract as an example, Swanson would push the Braves a bit more than $17MM over the luxury tax on his own. That’d make our predicted $22MM AAV more akin to paying $25.4MM this season. And, of course, signing Swanson at that rate would mean that any subsequent salary additions of note would then push the Braves into the second tier of penalization, subjecting them to the same 32% rate mentioned in the deGrom example.

The other wrinkle is that any such signing would further cause the team’s luxury bill to balloon in future seasons. The Braves already have about $135MM of luxury obligations on their 2024 payroll, two years down the road, and that doesn’t include potential club option pickups for veterans like Charlie Morton, Kirby Yates and Collin McHugh — nor does it include arbitration salaries for Fried, A.J. Minter and Kyle Wright. Paying the luxury tax for consecutive seasons would cause those rates of penalization also increase (30% in tier one, 42% in tier two, etc.).

Certainly, there are ways for the Braves to lower their current luxury tab and provide further breathing room, though the path to doing so is not an easy one. There’s little hope of finding a team willing to cover even a small portion of the $36MM still owed to Marcell Ozuna through 2024. Atlanta would probably welcome the opportunity to shed the $9MM owed to Eddie Rosario in 2023, but that’s also far easier said than done after he hit .212/.259/.328 in the first season of a two-year, $18MM contract. One recent source of Twitter speculation among fans — a possible trade of Ronald Acuna Jr. — is not something the Braves are considering, per Rosenthal.

Lengthy digression aside, let’s get back to the shortstop question. If, as Rosenthal suggests, the team is likely to be “out of the picture” for any of Correa, Turner or Bogaerts in the event of a Swanson departure, what might that mean for their 2023 outlook at shortstop?

Grissom and Arcia are in-house candidates, as alluded to by Anthopoulos, but Grissom’s bat wilted after a torrid start to his rookie season in 2022. He still finished with a terrific .291/.353/.440 batting line in 156 plate appearances, but Grissom slashed .420/.463/.660 in his first 54 plate appearances and just .220/.294/.319 over his final 102 trips to the plate. He also skipped Triple-A entirely on his way to the Majors, and scouting opinions on his long-term outlook at shortstop vary. Arcia, once one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, was a roughly league-average hitter in a part-time role last year but carries a .233/.288/.356 slash (70 wRC+) over the past five years.

The free-agent market has some modest stopgaps who could help ease Grissom into the full-time role at shortstop. Elvis Andrus was released by the A’s over the summer, but that was more about preventing his 2023 vesting option from kicking in than about his play. He had a strong finish after signing with the White Sox and hit a combined .249/.303/.404 with 17 homers and 18 steals between the two clubs. Jose Iglesias keeps hitting for average and rarely striking out — .291/.325/.408, 13.1% strikeout rate since 2019 — but defensive metrics have soured on the soon-to-be 33-year-old over the past two seasons. Old friend Andrelton Simmons is a free agent, too, but he’s batted just .216/.277/.261 in 536 plate appearances since Opening Day 2021.

None of those free-agent options are going to inspire Braves fans much — save for the possible nostalgia of a Simmons reunion — but they highlight the fact that it’s a thin crop beyond the “Big Four.” The trade market, then, could be a more palatable approach for Anthopoulos to explore. Cleveland’s Amed Rosario is a clear trade candidate with just a year to go before free agency and a mounting (by the Guardians’ standards) price tag. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9MM next year, and a low-payroll Guardians club that’s deep in MLB-ready middle infield prospects could look to cash in on the 27-year-old, as I recently explored at greater length.

The Yankees figure to be open to moving on from Isiah Kiner-Falefa now that Oswald Peraza is ready for a look in the Majors. The Reds would likely be open to dealing Kyle Farmer, with whom Anthopoulos is surely familiar dating back to his Dodgers days. Arizona’s Nick Ahmed and St. Louis’ Paul DeJong are veteran alternatives who could be had for pennies on the dollar, as the D-backs and Cardinals would surely welcome the chance to just shed some of the respective $10MM and $11MM remaining on their contracts. Both are buy-low options, at best, coming off poor showings in recent seasons. Any of Kevin Newman (Pirates), Nicky Lopez (Royals) or the oft-injured Adalberto Mondesi (Royals) could likely be had in a deal, but each has some obvious red flags.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Braves plan to simply stand pat this winter. A reunion with Swanson remains eminently plausible, even if previous extension attempts with his representatives — the same agents who represent Freeman, for what it’s worth — have yet to bear fruit. It’d push the Braves into luxury territory for the first time in franchise history, but based on McGuirk’s comments about a potential top-five payroll club, that’s something on which the front office will have a green light, at least with regard to Swanson.

What does seems far less likely is a lavish spending spree that sees the Braves make multiple marquee splashes on the free-agent market. If Swanson does sign elsewhere, it’s the bulk of the Braves’ heavy lifting may very well come via the trade market and the middle tiers of the free-agent market.

Royals Release Sebastian Rivero

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The Royals announced Wednesday that they’ve requested unconditional release waivers on catcher Sebastian Rivero, whom they designated for assignment last week. He’d be a free agent upon clearing.

Being placed on release waivers surely isn’t how Rivero wanted to spend his 24th birthday, but that’s the position in which he finds himself. The Venezuelan-born backstop has appeared briefly in each of the past two big league seasons with the Royals but struggled to a .167/.236/.197 batting line in a tiny sample of 73 plate appearances. Rivero has had more success in Triple-A, albeit in a similarly small number of plate appearances. In 171 trips to the plate there, he’s slashed .266/.322/.380.

Rivero was optioned to the minors the maximum five times during the course of the 2022 season, plus another three times in 2021. The up-and-down nature of his time with the Royals over the past two seasons, coupled with the canceled 2020 minor league season, have played a role in limiting his overall experience in the upper minors. Despite debuting as a teenager back in 2016, Rivero has appeared in just 383 games as a professional. He sports an above-average 29% caught-stealing rate but has posted sub-par framing marks in the minors, per Baseball Prospectus. He’ll likely land with a team in need of some catching depth on a minor league deal this offseason.

Angels Sign Tyler Anderson

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The Angels have made a notable addition to their starting staff, announcing agreement Wednesday on a three-year contract with free-agent lefty Tyler Anderson. It’s reportedly a $39MM guarantee with $13MM salaries paid out annually. Anderson had received a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer, but his deal with the Halos means he’s turning that down for a more lucrative pact. Anderson is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Tyler Anderson

Anderson, 33 in December, turned in a career-best season with the Dodgers in 2022, pitching to a 2.57 ERA in a career-high 178 2/3 innings. Along the way, he punched out 19.5% of his opponents against a 4.8% walk rate and 40.1% ground-ball rate.

A former first-round pick of the Rockies (No. 20 overall, in 2011), Anderson showed promise as a rookie in 2016 (3.54 ERA in 114 1/3 innings) before beginning to struggle at Coors Field and eventually incurring a fairly serious knee injury that derailed some of his prime years. Anderson was diagnosed with a chondral defect in the cartilage of his left knee, which sidelined him for the better part of a year and led to the end of his tenure with the Rockies.

Since leaving Colorado, Anderson’s climb back to big league relevance has been impressive, to say the least. Signed to a one-year, make-good deal by the Giants heading into 2020, Anderson did just that in the Covid-shortened season. A 4.37 ERA in 11 starts/13 total appearances wasn’t exactly eye-popping, but it earned him another big league deal with the Pirates the following season. Both the Phillies and Mariners went hard after Anderson at the ’21 trade deadline, with the lefty ultimately landing in Seattle. His 31 starts of roughly league-average pitching netted him a late one-year deal with the Dodgers.

As they so frequently do, the Dodgers found a way to coax a new level of performance out of Anderson in 2022. Anderson didn’t overhaul his pitch repertoire but did rely more heavily on his changeup than he has in all but the shortened 2020 season. R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports points out that Anderson also abandoned a changeup grip he’d been using in recent years and went back to an old grip that wound up generating more drop and limiting hard contact more effectively than ever before. Anderson ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB pitchers in terms of average exit velocity and opponents’ hard-hit rate, and he sat in the 95th percentile in terms of opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate.

It’ll now be incumbent upon the Angels to help Anderson sustain the 2022 version of himself even as he pitches into his mid-30s. It’s the first multi-year contract of Anderson’s career, and, more surprising, the first multi-year contract the Angels have given out to a free-agent starting pitcher since signing Joe Blanton ten years and three general managers ago. Owner Arte Moreno has seemingly been averse to multi-year pacts for free agent starters in all but a few special cases — the Halos pursued Gerrit Cole, for instance — and it’ll be Anderson who bucks that trend at a time when Moreno is exploring a potential sale of the franchise. It’s also the second straight winter in which Moreno and general manager Perry Minasian have jumped the market to sign a pitcher who’d received a qualifying offer; the Angels signed Noah Syndergaard to a one-year, $21MM contract last year before his QO decision was formally due.

Anderson will step into a rotation that’s fronted by two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, giving manager Phil Nevin a fourth lefty to follow his ace in the rotation. The Angels’ trio of Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Jose Suarez enjoyed, in somewhat under-the-radar fashion, a very productive 2022 season.

Adding Anderson gives the Angels a strong quintet on which to lean, and the Halos have a handful of in-house options to round out a six-man rotation if they prefer to get Ohtani an extra day of rest. Righties Chase Silseth, Griffin Canning, Chris Rodriguez, Janson Junk, Touki Toussaint and Davis Daniel are all on the 40-man roster, as are southpaws Tucker Davidson, Jhonathan Diaz and Kenny Rosenberg. That certainly doesn’t preclude further additions, and it’s possible that some of those depth options won’t even last the entire offseason on the 40-man roster.

The deal pushes the Halos to a projected $173MM for the 2023 season, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. For luxury-tax purposes, the Anderson deal pushes the Angels to a projected $187.5MM.

The Angels opened the 2022 season with a franchise-record $188.6MM payroll, so by signing Anderson they’re already vaulting themselves up to about $15MM from their highwater mark. With several holes to fill around the roster — infield, perhaps corner outfield, bullpen — they’re likely ticketed for what will be a third consecutive season of pushing to a new franchise record.

Because the Dodgers paid the luxury tax in 2022, their compensation for losing Anderson will be a pick between the fourth and fifth rounds of next year’s draft. The Angels, meanwhile, as a team that neither received revenue sharing nor paid the luxury tax, will surrender their second-highest draft selection and see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $500K.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Anderson and the Angels were in agreement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported it was a three-year deal in the $40MM range, while Mark Feinsand of MLB.com specified the $39MM guarantee. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reported the even annual salary disbursement.

Crane: Justin Verlander Seeking Deal Similar To Max Scherzer’s

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Justin Verlander is a free agent without much precedent. A favorite to claim his third career Cy Young award this evening, he’s back on the open market after bypassing a $25MM player option with the Astros.

Verlander’s a fascinating case for teams. He turns 40 years old in February, which’ll certainly cap the length of his next deal. Yet he’s still among the top handful of pitchers in the sport, which sets him up for one of the largest per-year salaries in MLB history. Astros owner Jim Crane — who has taken a very hands-on role in the Houston front office and played a key role in bringing Verlander back last winter — told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that Verlander has looked to last winter’s biggest free agent pitching contract as precedent. His former teammate Max Scherzer inked a three-year, $130MM guarantee with the Mets — a deal that also allowed him to opt out after the 2023 season.

“I know him well, so we’ve been pretty candid,” Crane told McTaggart. “He’s looking at the comp, which I think there’s only one or two. … J.V.’s probably got a few years left, and he wants to make the most of it. I think he’s going to test the market on that.”

The Scherzer deal indeed seems the closest comparison to Verlander, although their situations aren’t perfectly analogous. While both are all-time great pitchers still pitching near the top of their games deeper into their careers, a three-year bet on Scherzer was probably easier for a team to stomach than that same term for Verlander. Scherzer signed in advance of his age-37 season, while the latter will be three years older at the start of his next contract. Verlander’s two years removed from a Tommy John procedure that cost him almost all of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he’s bounced back to pitch at pre-surgery levels this year. Scherzer had avoided any injury of that magnitude in the past decade, topping 170 innings in every full season since 2008 before this year.

While that seems to tip things in Scherzer’s favor, their pure performance track records are mostly without complaint. Verlander had a 1.75 ERA across 175 innings this past season; Scherzer posted a 2.46 mark in 2021. The latter missed more bats, striking out 34.1% of opponents against Verlander’s 27.8% mark. Fanning just under 28% of opponents is still excellent for a starting pitcher, though, and Verlander maintained top-tier control while sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball.

To no one’s surprise, Crane suggested the Astros hope to bring Verlander back. However, there appears to be a notable gap between the two sides on contract terms right now. While Crane didn’t specify the lengths the Astros are willing to go to retain the nine-time All-Star, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports Crane has thus far been reluctant to go past a two-year guarantee in the $60MM – $70MM range. That’s certainly not to say the Houston owner couldn’t later raise the offer, but Rome characterizes that as a rough line the team has set at present and suggests the Astros are very unlikely to offer a third guaranteed year.

Whether another team would be willing to go three years is one of the most interesting storylines of the offseason, and MLBTR forecasts Verlander for a three-year, $120MM guarantee. In any event, it doesn’t seem as if the Astros and Verlander are going to come to any agreement within the first few days of the offseason. The right-hander has spoken a number of times about his respect for Crane and affinity for the organization generally, but the owner’s comments don’t suggest the future Hall of Famer is looking to take a notable discount to stick around for a fifth full season with the defending World Series champs.

One could argue the Astros are better off letting Verlander walk and reallocating their spending capacity. They’re sure to face competition from a number of big-market, win-now teams. Clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Phillies figure to check in; Andy Martino of SNY wrote yesterday the Mets have discussed internally the possibility of a Verlander pursuit, presumably as an alternative if Jacob deGrom departs in free agency.

Houston is one of the sport’s biggest spenders themselves, and they don’t figure to be facing acute budgetary limitations coming off a championship. Yet Rome points out the Astros under Crane have tended to shy away from long-term free agent commitments. They also have questions at first base, at one of left field or designated hitter (depending on the team’s plans for Yordan Alvarez) and, to a lesser extent, in the bullpen.

Roster Resource projects their 2023 commitments just under $164MM with a luxury tax number around $179MM. Topping this year’s approximate $174MM Opening Day payroll feels like a given, and they’re around $54MM away from the $233MM base luxury tax threshold. Houston could certainly make a Verlander deal work, but an annual salary approaching or topping the $43.333MM Scherzer secured would push them fairly close to CBT territory without addressing anywhere else on the roster. Even if Verlander departs, a rotation of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and top prospect Hunter Brown (plus any external additions) would be among the best in the sport.

As far those other needs go, Crane tells McTaggart he’s interested in bringing back Yuli Gurriel at first base. He was less committal on Michael Brantley, whom Crane said could need to wait until March until there’s clarity on his recovery from this summer’s right shoulder surgery. Crane also pointed to a desire to add a left-handed bullpen arm, an obvious question after the team bought out Will Smith at the start of the offseason. He didn’t speak on free agent catcher/DH Willson Contreras, to whom the club has previously been linked, but Rome reports that Houston indeed has “strong interest” in the former Cubs backstop.

Bryce Harper To Undergo Elbow Surgery Next Week

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Phillies star Bryce Harper will undergo elbow surgery to repair his damaged ulnar collateral ligament next Wednesday, president of baseball operation Dave Dombrowski announced today (Twitter link via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Imaging hasn’t conclusively determined whether Harper will require a full Tommy John surgery (i.e. ligament replacement) or whether an internal brace procedure could suffice, so the team won’t have a timeline until the surgery is performed.

Harper was diagnosed with a UCL tear back in May but was able to continue his 2022 season as the Phillies’ primary designated hitter. Position players who sustain UCL tears are often able to continue hitting, but throwing is obviously not an option with such an injury. Even in the event of a full Tommy John surgery, it should be noted that Harper could very likely return to the field as a DH for a notable portion of the 2023 season.

Shohei Ohtani, for instance, spent only the first five weeks or so of the 2019 season on the injured list before returning as a designated hitter. His surgery was performed in early October of 2018 — some seven weeks earlier in the offseason than Harper will go under the knife. Every player’s rehab is different, of course, but a summer return would seem plausible even in the worst-case scenario for Harper. If an internal brace procedure is sufficient, Harper could conceivably return in even shorter order.

Even with the damaged UCL, Harper remained a force in the middle of the Phillies’ lineup. Harper homered in three consecutive games following the diagnosis and batted .295/.381/.510 the rest of the way after learning of the tear. A broken thumb sustained when he was hit by a pitch sidelined him for a notable portion of the summer, but neither injury could prevent Harper from mashing when healthy enough to play. His postseason teetered on historic, as Harper slashed .349/.414/.746 with six home runs and seven doubles in just 71 plate appearances. His NLCS-winning home run against the Padres will forever be etched in Phillies lore.

Harper  is still only four years into the 13-year, $330MM contract he signed as a free agent prior to the 2019 season, but to this point it’s hard to call the contract anything other than a roaring success. Since putting pen to paper and making Philadelphia his long-term home, Harper has batted a combined .282/.384/.546 (not including this year’s postseason exploits), won an NL MVP Award and helped bring the Phillies back to the postseason for the first time since 2011. He’s still owed $222MM over the remaining nine years of the deal, though with the typical AAV for premium players now well north of $30MM, that $24.667MM AAV looks like a bargain for Harper.

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