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Big Hype Prospects: Sheehan, Perez Jr., Kjerstad, Walker, Mervis

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Our Arizona Fall League prospect coverage is coming to a close. The league wraps up its postseason this weekend. We’ll use this opportunity for one last peek at game action before affiliated baseball closes down for the year.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 20.1 IP, 8 BB, 24 K, 3.54 ERA

Arguably the top pitching prospect in the AFL, Sheehan had a shaky start to his fall season. He ended with a masterpiece: a five-inning, 10-strikeout gem. He allowed one hit and one walk in the outing. A right-handed changeup specialist, command is the main bugaboo when it comes to Sheehan’s development. His repertoire plays together in a way that should flummox hitters at all levels. As a Dodger, there is increased pressure to refine his command if he wants to stick in the rotation. Most clubs would comfortably view him as a future starter – one who might fumble a few games in the early innings but make up for it by dominating in others. The Dodgers could yet opt to turn him into a swing-man or reliever as they have with several able pitching prospects in recent years.

Robert Perez Jr., 22, 1B, SEA (A+)
AFL: 77 PA, 3 HR, .231/.338/.415

A slow-burn prospect whose calling card is power, Perez neither seized nor fumbled his opportunity in the AFL. The Rule 5-eligible first baseman has impressive power which he put on display by winning the first Fall Stars Home Run Derby. He performed well during the regular season – mostly at Low-A where he was a tad old for the level. His potent regular season and passable AFL campaign should lead to a promotion to Double-A early in the season. Whether or not the Mariners opt to add him to their 40-man, the right-handed slugger probably isn’t ready for a straight jump to the Majors via the Rule 5 Draft. Even in the AFL, he struck out 22 times in 77 plate appearances (28 percent).

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 104 PA, 5 HR, .357/.385/.622

Few players had more to prove this fall than Kjerstad. Now that the smoke has cleared, he answered some questions and raised others. The left-handed hitting outfielder led the league in plate appearances and at bats. He recorded five walks and 31 strikeouts. Given the modest quality of pitching in the AFL, it’s fair to wonder about his combination of aggression and swing-and-miss tendencies. This is a long-standing issue dating back to pre-draft reports. He worked on it during the regular season – possibly to the detriment of his power. On-site observers raved about the quality of Kjerstad’s contact… whenever he connected. Between premium exit velocities, plenty of fly balls, and all those at bats, it’s no surprise he led the league in extra-base hits.
Such prospects succeed when they’re adept at making adjustments. Kjerstad should get his first taste of the upper minors at some point next season.

Jordan Walker, 20, OF/3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 90 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, .286/.367/.558

While others had flashier showings, Walker was the talk of the AFL. He handled himself with poise while flashing a superstar ceiling – both by the traditional eye-test and via Statcast measurables. He likely could hold his own in the Majors as soon as next season. The Cardinals have been working on shifting him to the outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. The main element lacking in Walker’s development is the easiest to supply – experience. He needs more opportunities to face and adjust to star-caliber pitching. Along the way, he’ll likely develop into a regular All-Star candidate.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 68 PA, 6 HR, 2 SB, .262/.324/.590

Of AFL participants (excluding Joey Wentz), Mervis probably has the best chance to open 2023 in the Majors. Including the regular season, he hit 42 home runs in 646 plate appearances this year. Remarkably, especially for the AFL home run leader, he fanned just eight times (11.8% K%) this fall. He also improved his strikeout rate continuously throughout the regular season. He began in High-A, where he recorded a 24.1 percent strikeout rate. That dropped to just 20.0 percent in Double-A and 14.6 percent in Triple-A. The low rate at his final stop coincided with an 8.7 percent swinging strike rate – far better than the league average. If Mervis can continue to avoid strikeouts while tapping into his power, he’ll have a bright future as a mid-lineup left-handed slugger.

Five More

Edouard Julien (23): Julien has been covered ad nauseum in this column. No prospect did more to further their claim to a future Major League role this fall. He’ll almost certainly be protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Julien’s combination of discipline, contact, sneaky pop, and sneakier baserunning are the traits of a regular. He still needs to settle into a position defensively – an issue that has arisen a few times in the Twins recent past (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda, Nick Gordon).

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert allowed a hit in his final inning of work, closing out the season with 11.2 innings, 40 batters faced, one hit allowed, four walks, and 25 strikeouts. Despite a relatively low inning total, he had the second-most strikeouts. The showing will help put him in consideration for a Major League role next season. The Rays have a crammed 40-man roster, and Reifert isn’t Rule 5-eligible until next offseason.

Tyler Hardman, NYY (23): A developing slugger with potent pop, Hardman is coming off Player of the Week honors. Overall, he posted a .325/.373/.662 line in 83 plate appearances. Of qualified hitters, he had the fourth-best OPS. Contact and inconsistent defense at the hot corner hold him back from appearing on prospect lists.

Nick Gonzales, PIT (23): Gonzales dropped from the spotlight due to injury and flawed performance. His AFL stint allowed him to build on a solid first showing in Double-A. In both settings, he succeeded without truly impressing. Whiffs remain an issue for a second baseman who is heavily dependent on his offensive output.

Francisco Morales, PHI (23): Morales is an interesting AFL participant because the Phillies have already burned two of his option years. They’re likely assessing if he should remain on the roster at all. He was one of four pitchers to throw 10 or more AFL innings without allowing an earned run. He recorded 17 strikeouts with only four hits allowed in 10.2 innings. He also issued seven free passes. Those walk issues have haunted him on a regular basis.

Rays Hire Jon Daniels As Senior Advisor For Baseball Operations

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The Rays announced to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, that they have hired Jon Daniels as senior advisor for baseball operations. Daniels had spent many years with the Rangers until he was recently fired as president of baseball operations.

Daniels, 45, spent 17 years running the baseball operations in Texas, getting hired as general manager in 2005 and promoted to the POBO role in 2013. The Rangers had their best run of success with Daniels at the helm, as they made the playoffs in five out of seven seasons from 2010 to 2016, including trips to the World Series in the first two of those years. Since that time, however, the club has entered a rebuilding period that has continued to linger. They fell to 78-84 in 2017 and just endured their sixth straight losing season in 2022, with Daniels getting fired in August.

Despite the poor results in recent seasons, the Rays will bring Daniels into their front office mix. Said front office is headed by Erik Neander, president of baseball operations, followed by Peter Bendix, senior vice president baseball operations and general manager. The exact level of involvement they expect from Daniels is unclear, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that Daniels will focus on “supporting baseball ops senior leadership while utilizing his extensive experience in the industry to help further inform decision-making.”

In addition to the hiring of Daniels, the Rays also announced several promotions and/or title changes, with Topkin giving a rundown on Twitter (link one, two and three).

Astros Fire Assistant General Manager Scott Powers

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The Houston Astros have fired assistant general manager Scott Powers, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. This comes on the heels of the firing of general manager James Click from earlier today. As noted by Passan, Click hired Powers away from the Dodgers back in January.

The Astros parting ways with Click was the first domino to fall in a surprising sequence of events following the Astros winning the 2022 World Series. Despite reports of friction between Click and owner Jim Crane, it had been speculated by many that a World Series victory would nonetheless be enough to overcome those tensions and keep the gravy train rolling. Instead, it seems that the hurdles have been too high to mount, despite the Astros emerging triumphant in 2022. After Click was removed from the picture, it had been hypothesized that some of his hires would also be let go, and that has indeed come to pass with Powers getting sent out the door behind Click.

Powers was the Dodgers director of quantitative analysis up until he was hired by the Astros in January of 2022. Also hired as an AGM at that time was Andrew Ball, who had worked with Click in the Rays’ system. No word has been released about his status but it’s fair to wonder at this point if Crane is determined at this point to dismiss anyone he deems to be a Click guy. It’s worth reiterating that Click was hired after the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts in 2017 came to light after the 2019 season. President of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow was fired and Click hired shortly thereafter. Although the team has continued performing well, it seems that things haven’t been as rosy behind the scenes. Despite the firings, Click and Powers and anyone else who ends up leaving will surely get plenty of interest from other teams around the league based on their track record of results on the field.

The Astros are now facing a large amount of front office turnover. In addition to Click and Powers, and whatever other moves may or may not be coming, a few executives have already departed for jobs with other organizations. A month ago, the Giants hired Pete Putila, another Houston AGM, to be their general manager. Oz Ocampo, a long-time scout and executive with the Astros, was recently hired to be an AGM with the Marlins.

This puts the Astros in a strange and perhaps unprecedented position. On the one hand, they are reigning world champions, having just hoisted the trophy less than a week ago. That’s just the latest success marker in a long run of results, as they have qualified for the ALCS in each of the last six seasons. On the other hand, they will have to quickly scramble to fill out a front office that is hemorrhaging members while making plans for their title defense in 2023.

Many have wondered if David Stearns could be a candidate due to a couple of factors. He recently stepped down from his role as the Brewers’ president of baseball operations and into a more advisory position, and also was an AGM with the Astros before going to Milwaukee. However, he is still under contract for one more year and has said he’s not going anywhere, reiterating that position today to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “I’m just going to reiterate what I said previously: I’m not going anywhere,” Stearns said “I’m committed to advising Mark [Attanasio, Milwaukee’s principal owner] and [general manager Matt Arnold] in any way I can. And that’s that.”

Diamondbacks Outright Humberto Castellanos, Tyler Zuber, Buddy Kennedy

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November 11: The Diamondbacks announced that they have outrighted Castellanos and Zuber, as well as infielder Buddy Kennedy.

November 10: The Diamondbacks announced a batch of roster moves today, reinstating five players from the 60-day injured list. They are infielders Nick Ahmed and Emmanuel Rivera, left-hander Tyler Gilbert, along with right-handers Humberto Castellanos and Tyler Zuber. Those latter two names have also been designated for assignment. That leaves the club’s 40-man roster at exactly 40.

Starting today and until Spring Training, there is no injured list. That means that most teams around the league are facing roster crunches as players on the 60-day IL have to retake their roster spots. The D-Backs reinstated these five but also had to designate a couple of them in order to get their roster down to an even 40.

Zuber, 28 in June, was just claimed off waivers from the Royals a couple of weeks ago. The fact that Arizona has quickly put him back into DFA limbo perhaps suggests that their plan in claiming him has been to pass him through waivers and hang onto his rights. He missed all of 2022 due to a shoulder impingement but recently began throwing again. When he was last healthy in 2021, he had poor results in the majors but put up a 2.83 ERA in Triple-A with a 37.1% strikeout rate, though an unfortunate 13.8% walk rate. If he clears waivers, the D-Backs can try to help him with his control but without Zuber taking up a roster spot.

As for Castellanos, 25 in April, he made 11 appearances for the Snakes in 2022, including nine starts. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in August and is likely to miss the entire 2023 season.

Rockies Re-Sign José Ureña

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The Rockies and right-hander José Ureña are in agreement on a contract for 2023. It’s a one-year, $3.5MM guarantee that comes in the form of a $3MM salary for 2022 along with a $500K buyout on a $4MM club option for 2024.

Ureña, 31, is a veteran who has appeared in each of the past eight MLB seasons. The first six of those were with the Marlins and the seventh was with the Tigers, with the righty generally soaking up innings by inducing a fair amount of ground balls. In 2022, he began the year with the Brewers but was let go in May after just four relief appearances. He latched on with the Rockies on a minor league deal and made it up to their big league team by July. He eventually made 17 starts for Colorado and continued in his usual low-strikeout, high-grounder fashion. He logged 89 1/3 innings with a 5.14 ERA, 15.2% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate and 50.3% ground ball rate, with all of those being pretty close to his career marks.

Since Coors Field is notorious for its offense-forward environment, Ureña was likely better than that ERA indicates. All of the advanced metrics were a bit kinder, as he had a 4.53 FIP, 4.46 xFIP and 4.83 SIERA. Those still aren’t amazing numbers, but the Rockies often have trouble convincing pitchers to make Denver their home. As the season was winding down, reports emerged that both he and the club were happy with their arrangement and were interested in a reunion. Giving the mutual affection and constant need for arms in Colorado, signing up for another year at a modest price point seems to be a good fit for all parties.

By bringing back Ureña, the club adds a reliable veteran to a rotation that has a lot of uncertainty at the moment. Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland should have two spots spoken for, with Ureña now taking a third. There’s not much guaranteed beyond that right now though. Antonio Senzatela should enter the mix at some point, though he was diagnosed with a torn ACL in August. At the time, the estimated recovery period was given as 6-8 months, meaning Senzatela could miss a chunk of the beginning of the season. There are other options to fill out the back, such as Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner and Noah Davis. In the case of Davis, he is unproven as he has just a single inning of MLB experience at this point. Gomber and Feltner are a bit more established, though they each posted ERAs above 5.50 in 2022.

Given that uncertainty, this signing should only be the beginning of the steps the Rockies take to address their rotation before Opening Day. They might not be well-positioned to be huge players in the free agent pitching market, given their payroll. Roster Resource estimates that today’s signing pushes next year’s outlay to $157MM. The franchise record for an Opening Day figure is $131MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, meaning they are already almost $30MM into uncharted waters here. Given those circumstances, and the fact that free agent pitchers are usually loath to voluntary make Coors Field their home, the next moves could come via other means or might be similarly modest.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the two sides were in agreement. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first had that it was a major league deal and that it was worth $3.5MM (Twitter links). Thomas Harding of MLB.com first reported the club option for 2024. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the $3MM salary for 2023, $4MM figure for the option and $500K number for the buyout (Twitter links).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Outright Esteban Quiroz, Jared Young

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The Cubs announced that infielders Esteban Quiroz and Jared Young have cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Iowa.

Quiroz, 31 in February, played in the Mexican League for years and didn’t sign with an affiliated ball club until he was almost 26. He spent time in the organizations of the Red Sox, Padres and Rays before coming to the Cubs in the Harold Ramirez trade. He was selected to the big league roster in September and was able to make his MLB debut as the season was winding down. He hit .275/.370/275 for a wRC+ of 95 over 14 games in that brief audition.

Young, 27, was selected by the Cubs in the 15th round of the 2017 draft. Like Quiroz, he was promoted to the big leagues in September and got a brief MLB audition. He got into six games and hit .263/.364/.368 for a wRC+ of 113 in that small sample. He walked in 13.6% of his plate appearances but struck out in 31.8% of them.

Players have the right to reject outrights assignments if they have three years of MLB service time or have previously been outrighted in their career. Since neither player qualifies, they will remain in the Cubs’ organization as depth but without taking up a roster spot.

Ji-Man Choi To Undergo Elbow Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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The Pirates acquired Ji-Man Choi from the Rays in a trade yesterday, slotting him in as their first baseman for 2023. Ben Cherington, the general manager of Choi’s new club, passed along some information about Choi’s health to reporters today. Per Justice delos Santos of MLB.com, Choi will undergo a minor procedure for his right elbow in Korea but is expected to be recovered in time for Spring Training. “Based on the total information we have, we feel good about him going into next year,” Cherington said, per Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic.

delos Santos notes that Choi dealt with an elbow injury during the 2022 season, which was back towards the beginning of the year. He was placed on the IL on May 1, retroactive to April 28, due to loose bodies in his right elbow. He was able to return after a minimum stay on May 8 and avoided the IL for the remainder of the year.

Though Cherington didn’t provide many details, if the procedure is related to loose bodies, it’s likely not a huge concern. Alex Bregman underwent a procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow in January of 2019 and was still expected to be ready by Opening Day. That indeed came to pass, as Bregman didn’t miss any time in the regular season, getting into 156 games, and went on to have an excellent campaign. Each player and individual injury are unique, of course, but if Choi’s case is at all similar to Bregman’s, he has plenty of lead time to get healthy before next year.

Overall, he hit .233/.341/.388 in 2022 for a wRC+ of 115. He was much better prior to the IL stint, hitting .357/.491/.595 against a .217/.320/.360 line afterwards. It’s possible the arrival of the elbow issues had an impact, though that pre-IL line is just a 15-game sample and the latter section is still above average, producing a wRC+ of 101.

If the procedure helps Choi’s production take a step forward in 2023, the Pirates would surely welcome it. They are not expected to be competitive next year due to their ongoing rebuild and will likely be looking to trade Choi at the deadline since he’s an impending free agent. If he can come back from the offseason with any kind of improvement, it could help them to scoop up an interesting prospect or two when July rolls around.

Dipoto: Mariners Getting Trade Interest In Chris Flexen

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With six starters on the Mariners’ roster at the moment, fifth starter candidates Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen have both emerged as potential trade candidates. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto confirmed at today’s GM Meetings that other clubs were showing interest in Flexen back at the trade deadline and have expressed continued interest in the right-hander throughout this week’s GM Meetings in Las Vegas (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Flexen isn’t the only Mariners arm who’s drawn interest; Dipoto told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that his team is “getting hit constantly, up and down, with our bullpen, our starters.” However, Dipoto also stressed that he doesn’t plan to subtract from his bullpen via trade, but rather hopes to further augment an already strong relief corps.

As things stand, the Mariners have a deep rotation — with six starters for five spots. Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby make up one of the sport’s best rotation quartets, and they’re trailed by a pair of solid fifth starter options in Flexen and longtime Mariner Marco Gonzales. Seattle also has young Matt Brash as a potential option, and while the thinking is that he’s likely bullpen-bound for the foreseeable future, Dipoto told Divish that Brash would head to Spring Training stretched out as a starter and be downshifted into a relief role if the rotation remained healthy and did not undergo any other changes.

Those potential changes, quite likely, are in reference to a possible trade of Flexen and/or Gonzales. While neither is going to front any team’s rotation, both pitchers are serviceable options in the fourth or fifth spot of a starting staff, and both are relatively affordable. Flexen is set to earn $8MM next season after triggering a vesting option on his contract. He’ll only have three-plus years of service time at that point, but MLBTR has confirmed that the two-year deal Flexen signed upon returning from the KBO allows him to become a free agent next winter. As such, he’s a one-year rental.

Since returning from a one-year stint in the KBO, the 28-year-old Flexen has pitched 317 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball for the Mariners. His 16.5% strikeout rate has been well south of league-average, but he’s better than average in terms of walk rate (6.8%) and limiting home runs (1.02 HR/9). Flexen has also averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start and done a decent job minimizing hard contact.

As for Gonzales, a trade would be tougher to piece together. He’ll turn 31 in February, making him a good bit older than Flexen, and while his $6.5MM salary for the 2023 season is more affordable than that of Flexen, Gonzales is also owed $12MM in 2024. His contract contains a $15MM option for the 2025 season, though that option has no buyout.

Two years at a combined $18.5MM isn’t necessarily egregious for Gonzales, but it’s likely more than he’d fetch in the open market at present. He’s made 67 starts and soaked up 326 1/3 innings with a 4.05 ERA over the past two seasons, but Gonzales has seen his fastball velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate all trend in the wrong direction. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him about a full run worse than his ERA.

Logically speaking, the Mariners appear to be headed toward some form of move involving one of their two back-of-the-rotation options. Flexen, in particular, would seem appealing given the short term remaining on his contract and more reasonable overall commitment, though that’s only my own speculation.

Moving either player would help the Mariners to scale back a projected $131MM payroll next season (hat tip: Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez), not that they necessarily need to. The team’s franchise-record Opening Day payroll was $158MM back in 2018, and they took their payroll north of $170MM each year from 2016-18 by way of in-season trades (via Cot’s). That should leave ample payroll space regardless of how the team acts with regard to its rotation.

Still, spending a combined $14.5MM in 2023 payroll on a pair of fifth-starter candidates is, obviously, a sub-optimal arrangement. Shedding some or all of that combined salary will only give Dipoto and his staff more flexibility when it comes to offseason pursuits, and it’s possible that Flexen in particular could help net some immediate help for the big league roster (perhaps with some minor league talent being included by Seattle). As far as potential other targets, Dipoto has already acknowledged that he feels NPB ace Kodai Senga could be an “impact” MLB arm, and he mentioned in the aforementioned Rosenthal column that his club could seek a middle infielder and at least one — if not two — corner outfielders this winter.

Hazen: Diamondbacks Have Flexibility For At Least Slight Payroll Bump

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The Diamondbacks head into the offseason looking to bolster a roster that showed some promise in the second half. General manager Mike Hazen indicated last month the team was prioritizing adding swing-and-miss to the bullpen and was looking for another right-handed bat, and he suggested this week the front office should have financial breathing room for some additions.

“I think we’re going to have some room to move,” Hazen told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). “When we’ve felt like the team has gotten better, (owner Ken Kendrick) has usually given us leeway to maneuver. I think that’s going to be the case to some degree. I don’t know that we’re going to get to levels where we’ve been in the recent past, but I think we’re going to have some flexibility to do some things. I think the talent on our team warrants some additional good players.”

That’s not the resounding promise for a payroll spike for which the fanbase was probably hoping, although it does suggest they’ll be able to dip into free agency for help. Arizona signed only three free agents — Mark Melancon, Ian Kennedy and Zach Davies — to big league contracts last winter, tacking on a modest $12MM on the open market. The Snakes entered the 2022 campaign with a player payroll just under $91MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their second straight year between $90MM and $96MM.

Before the pandemic-shortened season, Arizona pushed spending north of $120MM in both 2018-19. Hazen’s comments downplay the possibility of getting back to those heights in 2023, but it doesn’t seem out of the question the team could push above $100MM in Opening Day payroll for the first time since 2020.

A relief corps that had the majors lowest strikeout rate figures to be a key priority. Arizona already bought low on a reliever with decent swing-and-miss ability, claiming Cole Sulser off waivers from the Marlins this week. That’s just one of what should be multiple additions, although an already-thin free agent relief market has seen arguably its top two players (Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez) agree to re-sign with their previous teams. That leaves Taylor Rogers, Rafael Montero, Carlos Estévez, Seth Lugo, Andrew Chafin, Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin among the top arms available, although the D-Backs are sure to look into trades and/or waivers for additional options.

One other key offseason storyline for the D-Backs is whether they’d deal from their stable of upper level outfielders. Arizona has seen Daulton Varsho and Corbin Carroll emerge as key pieces of the future, while Jake McCarthy had a strong 2022 campaign to earn everyday reps. Alek Thomas didn’t hit the ground running at the big league level, but he’s a high-contact center fielder who entered the year as a top prospect. The Snakes could certainly hang onto that depth, but Hazen has spoken on a number of occasions about a willingness to entertain trade offers on members of that group.

The GM reiterated this week that dealing an outfielder is a possibility, but he emphasized he’d only do so in a move that brought back immediate MLB talent. “I’m not trading them for prospects. The prospect trade is out,” Hazen said (via Piecoro). “You can take that off the table. It’ll have to be (an established or major league ready player) and at a caliber for us that we felt like we were equally maintaining (value).”

Hazen pointed out the outfield would have a trickle-down effect on how the team approaches the designated hitter position. He suggested the current outfield depth was likely to spill over to rotating players through the DH spot but acknowledged pursuing a full-fledged DH could be more realistic with a trade that ships away an outfielder. Hazen, a former Red Sox executive, pointed to David Ortiz in suggesting he’s not opposed to having an everyday DH in the right circumstances. The D-Backs certainly aren’t going to find a hitter on the level of the Hall of Fame slugger, but old friend J.D. Martinez is an impact free agent righty bat. Nelson Cruz is coming off a terrible year but could find a big league opportunity, while players like Justin Turner and Evan Longoria could fit as hybrids between a questionable third base position and DH in the desert.

Certainly, Arizona could look to the trade market for their desired right-handed bat as well — perhaps in a deal that sends out one of their lefty-swinging young outfielders. What’s clear is the Diamondbacks aren’t approaching the offseason as a rebuilder or traditional “seller,” however. To that end, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported this week Arizona has no plans to trade Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly this offseason. Dealing away either of their top two starters — each of whom is controllable through 2025 — never seemed especially  likely after Arizona’s somewhat promising end to the season, particularly with the club having a number of unproven options at the back end. Rosenthal suggests the D-Backs would unsurprisingly be open to shedding some of the two years and $37MM remaining on Madison Bumgarner’s contract, although finding another team willing to take a notable chunk of that money probably isn’t happening unless Arizona shoulders an undesirable contract in return.

Blake Treinen Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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The Dodgers announced to reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that right-hander Blake Treinen has undergone “right shoulder labrum and rotator cuff repair surgery.” The recovery process is about 10 months, meaning it’s possible Treinen will miss the entire 2023 season.

After a dismal 2019 campaign, Treinen was non-tendered by the A’s and signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Dodgers for 2020. It was a nice bounceback season for him, as he posted a 3.86 ERA while getting grounders on an incredible 64% of balls in play. The Dodgers were impressed enough to re-sign him for two years and $17.5MM with a 2023 club option worth $8MM.

In 2021, he took his game up a notch. Though his strikeout rate had been just above 20% in 2019 and 2020, he shot it up to 29.7% last year. He still got ground balls at a really strong 52.6% clip, helping his ERA drop down to 1.99. He also got pushed into more high leverage situations, earning seven saves and 32 holds.

2022 hasn’t been as pleasant, unfortunately. He appeared in three games in April before landing on the IL due to shoulder discomfort. He was transferred to the 60-day IL in May but the Dodgers nonetheless agreed to an extension with Treinen shortly thereafter. The extension was for $8MM in 2023, effectively guaranteeing the club option that was already in place. In addition, it came with a new club option for 2024, with a value somewhere between $1MM and $7MM. Where it falls in that range will depend upon Treinen’s health and other factors over the course of the deal.

Treinen did return to the hill this year, making a couple of appearances in September before returning to the IL. He was activated for the NLDS and made one postseason appearance, though he must have been using the last bits of strength his shoulder had. It was reported a couple of days ago that surgery seemed to be likely, and it has now indeed come to pass.

This is surely a disappointing development for Treinen personally but also for the Dodger club that took a gamble on him six months ago. They will now be on the hook for $8MM next year and that is quite likely to be a sunk cost. The 10-month recovery window makes it possible Treinen returns very late next year but he will have to rebuild strength and effectiveness after a long layoff. That makes it tough to count on him for anything. The exact calculus that goes into determining the final value of the 2024 option isn’t known, though Treinen’s upcoming extended absence will likely result in it finishing in the low end of that $1-7MM range. The club will surely make their decision based on how his health responds between now and one year from now. Treinen is currently 34 and will be turning 36 in June of 2024.

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