MLBTR Poll: Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter
Four of the Blue Jays’ five starting jobs are set. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman both had great seasons last year and will be back in 2023. José Berríos is coming off a disappointing season but has a strong track record and six years left on his extension, making him a lock on another spot. Chris Bassitt will also be in there after the club agreed to give him $63MM over three years this winter, in addition to surrendering a draft pick and international bonus space because Bassitt rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.
The final spot is less certain, however, with a few potential options that could step up and take the job. Hyun Jin Ryu is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could be back around the All-Star break, though that’s still an estimate at this point. Someone will have to take the fifth spot for at least the first half. Even if Ryu does meet that timeline and comes back for the second half, it’s possible that an injury to one of the other pitchers creates a continued need for another arm. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the candidates.
Kikuchi is probably considered the frontrunner for the fifth starter right now, just based on experience. After years of strong work in Japan, Kikuchi came over to North America by signing with the Mariners prior to 2019. He spent three years with Seattle, posting some intriguing but inconsistent results.
He reached free agency after 2021 and signed a three-year, $36MM deal with the Jays. He made 2o starts last year but got bumped to the bullpen after registering a 5.25 ERA in that time. He’d go on to toss 18 1/3 innings in the bullpen with a slightly better 4.91 ERA, though the underlying numbers were more encouraging. His 24.5% strikeout rate as a starter jumped up to an incredible 39.8% rate as a reliever, while his control also improved. He posted a 13.2% walk rate in the rotation but walked just 10.8% of batters faced out of the ‘pen. A .371 batting average on balls in play as a reliever perhaps helped to push his ERA up, with his 4.15 FIP and 2.28 xFIP suggesting he deserved better, though it’s also possible he was just getting hit hard.
That’s a small sample size but it perhaps suggests there’s a chance Kikuchi has a nice floor as a left-handed reliever if he eventually gets pushed out of the rotation for good. However, it’s also possible he gets another chance to start since he’s the most experienced of this bunch, turning 32 in June. He can at least bring some velocity, as he averages around 95 mph on his fastball, one of the best such marks among left-handed starters in the game. But it doesn’t seem to be a challenge for big league hitters, as Kikuchi ranked in the first percentile last year in terms of barrel rate, hard hit rate and average exit velocity. He has a 5.02 ERA through 466 1/3 MLB innings at this point and will have to figure out a way to get better results. Even if he gets the fifth starter job out of Spring Training, he should have other guys on his heels throughout the season.
White, 28, was a second round pick of the Dodgers in 2016 and had been a well-regarded prospect in the years after that. He’s spent the past three years without a firm role, frequently being optioned to the minors and recalled to the majors as needed, making starts but also relief appearances.
In 2021, he made 21 appearances in the majors, including four starts. He tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA, getting grounders at a 47.7% rate while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 8.6% of them. Things went even better in 43 2/3 innings in the minors, with White posting a 1.65 ERA, with a 30.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate.
In the first few months of 2022, White only made a couple of Triple-A appearances, spending most of his time with the big league club. He made 10 starts and five relief appearances, logging 56 innings. He had a solid 3.70 ERA and 8% walk rate, though his strikeout rate dipped to 19.8%. The Blue Jays acquired him at the deadline but the switch didn’t help his results. He made 10 appearances for the Jays, including eight starts, and posted a 7.74 ERA in that time. His walk and ground ball rates stayed around average but his strikeout rate fell even further to 15.3%.
Despite that rough start to his Toronto tenure, there’s plenty to like in White overall. He was in the 79th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate, 77th in barrel rate and 63rd in average exit velocity. His .276 BABIP as a Dodger and .368 mark as a Blue Jay explain the different results somewhat. All of the advanced metrics liked his Toronto work much better than that huge ERA, including a 3.76 FIP, 4.68 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA. White is now out of options so the Jays will have to keep him in the bullpen as a long man if he doesn’t snag the rotation job, but he has five years of control remaining and should get some starting opportunities whenever the circumstances allow.
Pearson, 26, arguably has the most upside of anyone on this list. Selected by the Jays in the first round of the 2017 draft, he posted great results in the minors and shot up prospect rankings. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the game by the start of 2018 and he got as high as #7 in 2020.
Unfortunately, injuries have stalled Pearson out since then, as he hasn’t been able to throw 50 innings in any of the past three seasons. Elbow tightness limited him to 18 innings in 2020, plus two more in the postseason. The following year, he dealt with a groin strain and a shoulder impingement, then underwent surgery on a sports hernia at season’s end. Between the majors and minors, he tossed 45 2/3 innings on the year. In 2022, his early season ramp-up was delayed by mononucleosis and he then suffered a lat strain while rehabbing. He was only able to throw 15 1/3 innings in the minors, though he was healthy enough by the end of the year to play in the Dominican Winter League. He tossed 12 innings for Tigres del Licey without allowing an earned run, striking out 36.4% of batters faced.
The fact that Pearson finished the year healthy and dealing in winter ball is encouraging, but it’s hard to expect much from him in the immediate future. He might still be a big league starter someday, but after three straight seasons of injuries and scattered appearances, it’s probably unwise to expect him to suddenly jump to the range of 150 innings in 2023. When he was last healthy for an extended stretch, he pitched 101 2/3 minor league innings in 2019 with a 2.30 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. The talent is clearly there but his workload capacity is an unanswered question.
Hatch, 28, was a third round pick of the Cubs in 2016 but came to the Jays in a 2019 deadline deal that sent David Phelps to Chicago. Hatch had an encouraging major league debut in 2020, tossing 26 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA. However, the last couple of seasons have been a struggle, with Hatch posting middling results in the minors and only getting into four big league games between the two campaigns. In 2022, he made a single start for the Jays and allowed 10 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. In 131 Triple-A innings, he had a 4.67 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s still on the 40-man and has another option year left, but he’s likely just an emergency starting candidate unless he takes a step forward this year.
Francis, 27 in April, was a seventh-round selection of the Brewers in 2017 but came to the Jays in the 2021 Rowdy Tellez trade. He was added to the Jays’ roster in November of that year to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, Francis scuffled last year, despite a scoreless MLB debut that lasted 2/3 of an inning. He tossed 98 1/3 innings in the minors with a 6.59 ERA, getting outrighted off the roster in June.
However, Francis suited up for winter ball, joining Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico. That stint has gone extremely well for him, with Francis making nine starts with a 1.51 ERA over 35 2/3 innings. He’s struck out 47 of the 136 batters he’s faced for an excellent 34.6% rate. He’s still a long shot to earn a spot with the Jays since he’s no longer on the 40-man, but he could be an interesting wild card in this deck.
The Blue Jays picked up some extra international bonus pool money by trading Kendrys Morales and Dwight Smith Jr. and used that to sign Zulueta out of Cuba in June of 2019, just before the signing period which began in July of 2018 was set to conclude. At that time, Zulueta had already been clocked at 98 mph, per a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
Since then, Zulueta’s rise has been stalled by a couple of factors. He required Tommy John surgery shortly after signing and spent 2020 rehabbing. In 2021, he faced one batter before tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, wiping out the rest of that year. In 2022, finally healthy, Zulueta had a breakout year in the minors, going from Low-A to High-A to Double-A and then Triple-A. He posted a combined 3.72 ERA over 55 2/3 innings, striking out 33.9% of batters faced while walking 12.9% of them.
At the end of the year, the Jays added Zulueta to the 40-man to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 draft and Baseball America ranked him the second-best prospect in the system, trailing only the pitcher below him in this article. Zulueta is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate solution for the Jays. After some extended injury time, he still needs to build up his workload and refine his command. But once he does, he has a triple-digit heater that headlines a four-pitch mix. He turns 25 his month and has a full slate of options, suggesting there will be no rush to push him into the big league rotation. But as the Jays recently showed with Manoah, they can be aggressive with young hurlers once the pitcher shows himself ready.
Tiedemann, 20, was selected by the Jays in the third round of the 2021 draft. In 2022, he began the year in Low-A and then jumped to High-A and Double-A in his age-19 season. He tossed 78 2/3 innings over those three levels with a 2.17 ERA, striking out 38.9% of batters faced while walking 9.6% of them.
That performance led to him shooting up prospect rankings last year. As mentioned, BA now considers him the best prospect in the system, with Gabriel Moreno having been traded to the Diamondbacks in the Daulton Varsho deal. They also currently have him ranked the #28 prospect in the entire league, with MLB Pipeline similarly bullish by ranking him #33.
Like Zulueta, Tiedemann is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate option for the Jays. He’s still incredibly young and won’t be Rule 5 eligible until December of 2025. However, since he reached Double-A last year, there’s a chance he’ll be knocking on the door this year.
External Addition
It’s also possible that the Jays look outside the organization to find someone they like better than any of these options. The club has reportedly shown interest in Johnny Cueto, suggesting they could add a short-term veteran to take over and push everyone else down the depth chart. Cueto seems to have plenty of interest, with the Reds, Marlins and Padres among those who seem to be in the mix. If the Jays miss on him, some other remaining free agents include Michael Wacha, Zack Greinke, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. If the Jays are willing to swing another trade, the Marlins have plenty of arms available, the Mariners seem to have some openness to dealing Chris Flexen, while the Brewers seem stacked in the rotation and could consider trading someone like Adrian Houser.
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What do you think? Which of these guys will make the most starts for the Jays in 2023? Have your say in the poll below!
(poll link for app users)
Who Will Be The Blue Jays' Primary Fifth Starter In 2023?
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Yusei Kikuchi 43% (2,937)
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Nate Pearson 18% (1,249)
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Other/External Addition 16% (1,110)
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Mitch White 12% (842)
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Ricky Tiedemann 7% (460)
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Yosver Zulueta 2% (141)
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Thomas Hatch 1% (87)
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Bowden Francis 1% (70)
Total votes: 6,896
Angels Designate Austin Warren For Assignment
The Angels announced they’re designated reliever Austin Warren for assignment. The move creates a spot on the 40-man roster for outfielder Brett Phillips, who has officially signed his one-year free agent contract.
Warren, 27 next month, first secured a spot on the 40-man in July 2021. The righty has worked as a depth reliever in the year and a half since then. He pitched 16 times as a rookie, posting a 1.77 ERA with quality peripherals through his first 20 1/3 MLB innings. He earned some higher-leverage work down the stretch but didn’t manage to build off that solid initial look in 2022.
The UNC-Wilmington product made 14 big league appearances last season. He allowed 10 runs in 16 innings this time around, striking out just 12.9% of opposing hitters. After inducing grounders on more than 53% of batted balls as a rookie, he saw that mark fall to a pedestrian 37.7% last season. As a result, Warren spent more time at Triple-A Salt Lake.
He tossed 34 frames over 27 outings of relief for the Bees. Warren posted a 2.12 ERA with a 54.3% ground-ball percentage over that stretch, faring much better than in his limited MLB work. He still didn’t miss many bats, though, striking out 20.7% of opponents against a lofty 11.7% walk percentage.
The Halos will now have a week to trade Warren or look to run him through waivers. He has two minor league option years remaining, so any team willing to devote him a spot on the 40-man roster could keep him in Triple-A for a couple seasons. Warren has never previously been waived and has less than three years of major league service, meaning the Halos would be able to keep him in the organization on an outright assignment if he goes unclaimed on waivers.
Angels Sign Brett Phillips To Major League Deal
5:50pm: The Angels have now announced the move, making it official.
5:30pm: The Angels and outfielder Brett Phillips are in agreement on a one-year major league deal that will see him make $1.2MM. Phillips is a client of O’Connell Sports Management.
Phillips, 29 in May, has seen big league action in each of the past six seasons, spending time with the Brewers, Royals, Rays and Orioles. Though he’s never really been a huge threat at the plate, he’s provided value to those clubs with his defense and speed. His best season to date was 2021 with the Rays, where he hit 13 home runs and stole 14 bases. He struck out in a massive 38.7% of his plate appearances but also walked in 11.3% of them. He finished the year with a batting line of .206/.300/.427 and a wRC+ of 103, indicating he was 3% better than league average at the plate. He also got excellent grades for his glovework and was considered to be worth 2.3 wins above replacement by FanGraphs.
Unfortunately, the flaws in his game were a bit more exposed in 2022. His strikeout rate, which was already incredibly high, ticked north to 41.8% while his walk rate dipped to 7.1%. His batting line last year was .144/.217/.249, leading to an untenable wRC+ of 38. That frustrating season including getting designated for assignment by the Rays in August, which led to a trade to the Orioles. They outrighted him off the roster in August, but Phillips reached free agency at season’s end.
Phillips certainly has some drawbacks but there are plenty of admirable attributes as well. Statcast places his sprint speed in the 88th percentile, his outfield jump in the 99th and his arm strength in the 97th. That speed might be more useful this year with the new rules that are designed to encourage more base stealing. The limits on defensive shifts might also give him a boost at the plate since he was shifted on 88% of his plate appearances last year.
The Angels will likely be looking to implement Phillips in a part-time role off the bench, coming in for pinch running and defensive substitutions. The primary outfield should consist of Mike Trout in center flanked by Hunter Renfroe and Taylor Ward in the corners with Shohei Ohtani serving as the designated hitter most nights. The club also has Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell as outfield options on its 40-man roster, but both of them have struggled at the major league level thus far and each has an option year remaining, allowing them to be sent to the minors as depth if they don’t earn their way into larger roles.
Phillips is the latest in a series of moves that the Angels have made to improve the support for their star players. Despite having Trout and Ohtani and other stars over the years, the club has failed to live up to expectations due to shortcomings elsewhere on the roster, especially when injuries have tested their depth. The club has signed Tyler Anderson to helped their rotation and Carlos Estévez to bolster the bullpen. On the position player side, they traded for Renfroe and Gio Urshela while signing Brandon Drury and now Phillips.
Phillips doesn’t have any options, meaning he’ll have to stick on the roster or else be designated for assignment. However, he has just over three years of MLB service time and can be retained for future seasons via arbitration if he has a solid campaign for the Halos. This deal brings their payroll to around $206MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource, and a competitive balance tax calculation of $221MM. That payroll figure would be a franchise record, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, eclipsing the $189MM mark from last year. The CBT number puts them about $12MM shy of the lowest luxury tax threshold, which will be $233MM this year.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Phillips and the Angels were in agreement. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first added the $1.2MM salary.
Tigers Sign Chasen Shreve To Minor League Deal
The Tigers have signed left-hander Chasen Shreve to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league Spring Training. Shreve, a client of CAA Sports, can make up to $2MM if he’s in the majors. That comes in the form of a salary of $1.25MM if he makes it to the majors, with several incentives available based on innings pitched. He will get another $75K for getting to 20, 30, 35 and 40 innings pitched, $100K for 45 and 50 innings and $125K at 55 and 60 innings.
Shreve, 32, has pitched in the past nine major league seasons, spending time with the Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Mets and Pirates. For his career, he’s made 317 appearances with a 3.87 ERA, striking out a strong 25.6% of batters faced and getting grounders at a fairly average 41% clip. His 11.4% walk rate is on the high side, but he’s largely been able to work around that.
In 2022, he signed a minor league deal with the Mets and was selected to their Opening Day roster. Unfortunately, Shreve posted a 6.49 ERA in 25 games and was released by the club in July. There are reasons to suspect bad fortune played a significant role and that Chasen deserved much better. His 25.4% strikeout rate was still strong and his 8.8% walk rate was actually better than many of his other seasons. A low 62.9% strand rate probably helped push his ERA northwards, as did 20.7% of his fly balls going over the fence. The advanced metrics were much more fond of his work last year, including a 5.01 FIP, 3.68 xFIP and 3.42 SIERA.
It’s possible that this deal for Shreve was referenced by Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris this weekend. After the club traded Gregory Soto to the Phillies, Harris spoke to reporters and said the club was looking to bolster their left-handed relief options in the wake of that deal. “We are hard at work on” this new acquisition, Harris said. “It may not be a major league deal, but [it’s] someone we’re excited about.”
After the Soto deal, the club is fairly short on left-handed relievers. Eduardo Rodriguez, Tarik Skubal, Matthew Boyd and Joey Wentz will likely all be starting, leaving Tyler Alexander as the lone southpaw relief option. Even Alexander is more of a swingman, having started 42 of his 95 games thus far in his big league career. It makes plenty of sense that the Tigers would look to add a lefty reliever who has past success. The club isn’t seen as an especially likely contender in 2023 after they had such dismal results in 2022. If Shreve can make the team, he can provide a veteran stabilizing force in the ‘pen while also potentially turning into a midseason trade candidate.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Shreve and the Tigers were in agreement on a minor league deal that could see him earn $2MM in the majors. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press added that the deal had been signed and also provided the specific breakdown of the financials.
Dodgers Sign David Freitas To Minor League Deal
The Dodgers and catcher David Freitas have signed a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The client of PSI Sports Management will presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Freitas, 34 in March, played in the majors for three straight years beginning in 2017. He got into 59 games over that stretch, suiting up for the Braves, Mariners and Brewers. His career batting line is currently .200/.268/.288. In 2020, he didn’t play in the regular season but was recalled by the Brewers to take a spot on their postseason roster, striking out in his sole plate appearance.
Though Freitas hasn’t done much in the majors, he got opportunities based on his strong work in the minors. In 2019, he hit 12 home runs in 91 Triple-A games and produced a slash line of .381/.461/.561 for a wRC+ of 154. That minor league work was enough to get him a chance to play in Korea in 2021, as he was signed by the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes. However, he struggled to a .259/.297/.374 line and was put on waivers in June. He signed with the Rays in August and hit .245/.364/.434 in 16 games for their Triple-A team down the stretch. Last year, Freitas signed a minors deal with the Yanks but was released after hitting .239/.310/.345 in 36 Triple-A games.
The Dodgers have Will Smith and Austin Barnes handling the catching duties at the major league level, but the only other backstop on the 40-man is Diego Cartaya. He’s one of the most highly-regarded prospects in the league but he has yet to reach Double-A. The addition of Freitas gives the club a veteran depth option without using a roster spot. If he’s able to make his way back onto the roster, he’s out of options but has just over a year of service time. Should his bat finally break out at the big league level, the Dodgers could keep him around for the foreseeable future.
Braves Sign Ryder Jones To Minor League Deal
2:45pm: Jones will be attempting a move to the mound, a switch he recently announced on Instagram. Hat tip to Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Jones has just a single inning pitched in affiliated ball but was a two-way player in high school.
1:34pm: The Braves have signed infielder Ryder Jones to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. Jones will presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training, though no official announcement has been made.
Jones, 29 in June, has 58 games of major league experience, all with the Giants. 53 of those were in 2017 and then five more the following year, but a dislocated knee ended that latter season. He hit just .184/.250/.316 in those seasons, was outrighted in 2019 and hasn’t been able to make it back to the big leagues since.
Ryder has previously had strong Triple-A results but struggled in 2022. After signing a minor league deal with the White Sox, he got into 67 games for the Charlotte Knights but produced a batting line of .196/.269/.318 while striking out in 32.6% of his plate appearances.
Jones will look to get back on track with his new club. If he does so, he can provide some infield depth, primarily at the corners. He did play three innings at second base last year and pitched an inning of mop-up duty, but otherwise lined up mostly at first and third base. Atlanta has Matt Olson and Austin Riley firmly cemented in those positions at the big league level but they don’t have many depth infielders on the 40-man. Vaughn Grissom and Orlando Arcia could be battling for the shortstop job, with Braden Shewmake also on hand as another middle infielder. Jones gives them an option for the corners that has struggled in recent years but at least has big league experience. If he earns his way back onto the roster, he still has an option and less than one year of MLB service time.
Brewers Sign Josh VanMeter To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have informed reporters, including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that they have signed infielder Josh VanMeter to a minor league with an invitation to major league Spring Training.
VanMeter, 28 in March, has appeared in the past four major league seasons, spending time with the Reds, Diamondbacks and Pirates. He first got the call in 2019 and spent that season being frequently optioned between the majors and minors for the Reds. His work in the majors was a bit below average, as he hit .237/.327/.408 for a wRC+ of 88. But in 49 minor league games, he hit an incredible .348/.429/.669 for a wRC+ of 175.
Unfortunately, VanMeter hasn’t been able to come close to that level of production in the three years since, either in the majors or the minors. He spent most of 2022 in the majors with the Pirates, hitting just .187/.266/.292 for a wRC+ of 59. He was designated for assignment and outrighted in September, reaching free agency at season’s end.
Though he hasn’t hit much in the past few years, VanMeter at least brings defensive versatility. In his time in the big leagues, he’s played the outfield corners, every infield position except shortstop, as well as an inning behind the plate and three innings on the mound. It’s also possible his bat gets a boost from the upcoming rules against extreme defensive shifts, as he hits from the left side and was shifted in 79.7% of his appearances last year.
The Brewers have a bit of fluidity to their infield picture since Jace Peterson reached free agency and signed with the A’s while Kolten Wong was dealt to the Mariners. The club received Abraham Toro back in that Wong deal and also acquired Owen Miller from the Guardians. Luis Urías could take over third base while prospect Brice Turang is an option to join Willy Adames in the middle infield, but Turang has still yet to reach the majors. Mike Brosseau is also in the mix. The addition of VanMeter gives the club an experienced player to add some depth without using a roster spot for now. If he earns his way back onto the 40-man, he’s out of options and will have to stick around or else be designated for assignment. He has between three and four years of MLB service time and could be retained for future seasons via arbitration if he can work his way into Milwaukee’s plans.
Phillies, Giants Swap Yunior Marté For Erik Miller
The Phillies and Giants made a trade today, according to announcements from both clubs. Right-hander Yunior Marté is heading to the Phillies with lefty Erik Miller going the other way.
Marté, 28 next month, he spent most of his career with the Royals but never cracked their roster and reached minor league free agency after 2020. The Giants then signed him to a minor league deal and saw him post a 3.49 ERA over 56 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2021. He struck out 24.6% of batters faced, walked 9.1% of them and got grounders on 49.4% of balls in play. That was enough for the Giants to add him to the 40-man in November.
In 2022, Marté made his MLB debut with a 5.44 ERA in 48 innings for the Giants. That came with a 20.6% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate, with both of those numbers being a bit worse than league average. He did get grounders at a strong 48.6% rate and might have had some bad luck with a 63.2% strand rate. Statcast found a lot to like in his work, placing him in the 97th percentile in terms of barrel rate, 84th in terms of average exit velocity and 94th in terms of fastball velocity, averaging 97.8 mph. He also tossed 25 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 3.16 ERA and a huge 37.2% strikeout rate, though his 38.8% ground ball rate was lower down there.
Marté still has a couple of option years, so he’ll give the Phils an intriguing arm that they could potentially keep in the minors until needed. The bullpen has been an area of focus for the team this winter, as they’ve signed free agents Craig Kimbrel and Matt Strahm, in addition to swinging a trade for Gregory Soto this weekend and Marté today. For the Giants, it seems like Marté was nudged out of their plans when they signed Luke Jackson today, requiring them to open a roster spot with this trade. Though it was surely tough to part with a talented pitcher like Marté, they are at least getting something in return.
Miller, 25 next month, was a fourth round selection of the Phillies in 2019. He’s been considered one of the better prospects in the Philly system since then, with Baseball America having him in the club’s top 30 in each of the past three years. Between the canceled minor leagues in 2020 and an injury-marred 2021, he hadn’t pitched much coming into 2022. But he seemed to get into a groove at Double-A, tossing 36 1/3 innings with a 2.23 ERA. He struck out 30.1% of batters faced but also walked 11.6% of them. He was promoted to Triple-A but his control problems worsened. In 10 games at that level, he walked 21.5% of opponents, leading to a 7.50 ERA.
Miller got some attention here at MLBTR as the Rule 5 draft was approaching but he ultimately went unselected. That means the Giants have now swapped one intriguing arm for another, with Miller not occupying a roster spot. Baseball America highlights that his fastball can reach 98 mph, with a plus slider and changeup as well. However, they note that a lack of consistency has kept him from truly reaching his potential thus far.
P.J. Higgins Elects Free Agency
Catcher P.J. Higgins has rejected an outright assignment from the Cubs in favor of free agency, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Chicago designated Higgins for assignment in late December in order to open a spot on the roster for newly signed Tucker Barnhart, and Higgins cleared outright waivers last week. It was the second time in his career he’d gone unclaimed and been assigned outright to a minor league affiliate, however, which granted him the right to reject that assignment and explore his opportunities elsewhere.
Higgins, 29, appeared in 74 games for the Cubs in 2022, batting .229/.310/.383 with six homers, 11 doubles and a triple in 229 plate appearances. He walked at a 9.6% clip and punched out in 25.3% of those trips to the plate. That marked just the second season in which Higgins has had big league experience, with the 2021 season — when he appeared in just nine games — standing as the only other.
A 12th-round pick out of Old Dominion back in 2015, Higgins has been a generally productive hitter in the minors but has never received a particularly long big league look with the Cubs — due in no small part to the presence of Willson Contreras in the Majors for the entirety of his pro career to this point. Higgins has torn through Triple-A pitching at a .338/.429/.535 pace, though that’s come through just 274 plate appearances in a generally hitter-friendly setting. Overall, he’s a career .279/.365/.378 hitter in parts of seven minor league seasons.
Higgins was touted as an average or better defensive catcher back when Baseball America ranked him 22nd among Cubs farmhands in 2017, but he had some struggles in the Majors this past season. Higgins threw out just 16% of runners who attempted to steal against him — well below the league-average 24% — and he ranked near the bottom of the league with his average “pop time” in such situations, per Statcast. Both FanGraphs and Statcast pegged him as a below-average framer, as well, and Defensive Runs Saved dinged him at -6 for his work behind the plate in 2022.
That said, there’s more to Higgins’ defensive skill set than just his work behind the plate. He was an infielder at Old Dominion and in his first season of pro ball, and the Cubs have continued to get him work at other positions throughout his career. Catcher has remained his primary position since 2016, but Higgins has a total of 732 innings at first base, 575 innings at third base and even 93 innings at second and 37 innings at shortstop. He’s unlikely to be viewed as a regular option at any of those infield slots, of course, but it’s a nice bit of versatility to be able to market to other clubs as Higgins looks for a new opportunity as a minor league free agent for the first time in his career.
Giants Sign Luke Jackson To Two-Year Deal
The Giants announced Monday that they’ve signed free-agent righty Luke Jackson to a two-year contract that includes a club option for a third season. He’ll be guaranteed $11.5MM that’s paid out in the form of a $3MM salary in 2023, a $6.5MM salary in 2024 and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM option for the third year. Jackson, a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council, didn’t pitch in 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in April. The Giants didn’t provide a timeline, but given the date of his surgery, it’s likely Jackson will open the season on the injured list.
The 31-year-old Jackson had something of a roller-coaster tenure in the Atlanta bullpen, at times operating as the team’s closer and on other occasions being relegated to low-leverage roles while struggling through rocky results. He saved his best performance for last, however, dominating as the team’s primary setup man during their run to the World Series in 2021.
Jackson, who shook off a disastrous 6.84 ERA in the shortened 2020 season, pitched to an outstanding 1.98 ERA with a 26.8% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate for the Braves during the ’21 regular season. He was virtually unhittable in the season’s final couple months, recording a 1.35 ERA and 33-to-10 K/BB ratio with just one homer allowed over his final 26 2/3 frames that year.
For much of the postseason, the same was true. Jackson was unscored upon through his first six games in the playoffs — four NLDS games and two in the NLCS — before the Dodgers ambushed him for four runs in just one-third of an inning. The Braves lost that game (with Jackson taking the loss) but hung on to win the series. The World Series offered a chance at redemption for Jackson, and he seized it, firing 3 2/3 shutout innings with just one hit, no walks and four punchouts.
Looking at Jackson’s career from a broader perspective, the former No. 45 overall pick (Rangers, 2010) was a touted pitching prospect with Texas before being sent to the Braves in exchange for right-handers Tyrell Jenkins and Brady Feigl. Neither of those pitchers did anything for Texas, and while Jackson’s first season with the Braves in 2017 was rather nondescript, he began to turn a corner the following season.
It was 2018 when Jackson entirely shelved his changeup, scaled back the usage of his four-seamer and curveball, and began to throw his slider more than any other offering. Since that point, Jackson has seen his strikeout rate leap from an awful 13.4% to a very strong 27.1%. He’s averaged 95.5 mph on his heater along the way and also gone from a fly-ball pitcher to a robust ground-ball worker, keeping a whopping 55.8% of balls put into play against him on the ground. Command has been a frequent issue, evidenced by a 10% walk rate in his past 203 1/3 innings (2018-21), but Jackson’s ability to miss bats, induce double-plays and avoid home runs (0.93 HR/9) have helped him to offset that below-average ability to locate the ball.
Though he’s likely IL-bound to start the year, Jackson could still jump back into the big league bullpen before the season’s halfway point. Once he does, he’ll add some more swing-and-miss to what has become an increasingly sound relief corps in San Francisco. Lefty Taylor Rogers was signed for late-inning work alongside presumptive closer Camilo Doval, and the Giants will also have John Brebbia and Tyler Rogers (Taylor’s twin brother) in the mix for late-inning opportunities. The pitching staff has as many as seven capable starters — Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, Anthony DeSclafani, Jakob Junis — and the potential for two of them (Junis and perhaps DeSclafani) to pitch in relief only further deepens the bullpen.
Jackson’s modest $3MM salary in 2023 will push the payroll to a projected $192.2MM, per Roster Resource, while the Giants are now up to more than $213MM in luxury-tax obligations. That leaves plenty of room for some additional signings, whether to further deepen the relief corps or to add another bat to the lineup.