Tarik Skubal Visiting Specialist With Elbow Issue; Expected To Miss Remainder Of Season
4:32pm: Skubal is set to visit orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache next week, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). The 25-year-old is alarmingly dealing with some form of elbow injury, although Hinch declined to speculate as to whether surgery was a possibility until the results of next week’s testing became apparent. McCosky adds that Skubal will not return to the mound in 2022 in any event.
3:03pm: The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve transferred lefty Tarik Skubal from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. The move opens a spot on the roster for lefty Daniel Norris, whose contract has been formally selected from Triple-A Toledo (as previously reported). It also casts doubt on whether Skubal will return at all in the 2022 season. Since he was placed on the 15-day IL on Aug. 2, there’s still technically time for him to get back for the final week of games in early October — but today’s move makes that look fairly unlikely.
It’s a fairly surprising shift for Skubal, who was placed on the injured list due to general arm fatigue. Skubal was lifted from his final start of the season after five efficient innings and downplayed any severity, telling the Tigers beat that he anticipated making his next start. Instead, it’s now possible that he won’t pitch in a game until next season. The Tigers didn’t provide any further updates on Skubal’s health beyond the move to the 60-day IL, though manager AJ Hinch will presumably divulge some additional context prior to tonight’s game.
If Skubal’s season is indeed over, it was a strong breakout year for the former top prospect. The 25-year-old will fall shy of last year’s 149 2/3 innings, but in the 117 2/3 frames he managed during the 2022 campaign, Skubal worked to a 3.52 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a solid 45.7% grounder rate. Most importantly, he maintained the generally sharp strikeout and walk rates he’d displayed in 2021 while dramatically scaling back his home-run rate (2.11 HR/9 in 2021; 0.69 HR/9 in 2022). If Skubal can continue to miss bats, limit walks, keep the ball on the ground and limit home runs in this capacity, there’s room for even greater improvement (as evidenced by his hearty 2.97 FIP).
Whether there’s another gear for Skubal or this is roughly his peak output, he’s solidified himself as at least a quality mid-rotation option for Hinch in the coming years. Though there was talk of the Tigers being willing to at least listen to offers on the lefty before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, the Tigers would’ve required an exorbitant haul to part with him given that he’s still under team control for another four seasons beyond the current campaign. Given the current uncertainty regarding his arm, it’s difficult to imagine those talks being revisited this winter, as the Tigers — who’ll be operating under a new general manager after firing Al Avila yesterday — would be selling low on the heels of a lengthy IL stay.
As for what the Tigers’ rotation will look like moving forward, it’s practically anyone’s guess. Skubal joins Casey Mize and Spencer Turnbull (Tommy John surgery in both cases) as key rotation pieces on the 60-day injured list. The Tigers are currently also without Michael Pineda, Beau Brieske and Rony Garcia (injured list) and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (rehabbing following a lengthy stay on the restricted list while dealing with a reported marital issue). That’s left the Tigers with Norris, Matt Manning, Tyler Alexander, journeyman Drew Hutchison and rookie Garrett Hill as options for the time being. With little certainty among that quintet, there figures to be additional rotation tumult in the final weeks of the year.
Rockies Designate Jordan Sheffield For Assignment
The Rockies announced they’ve designated reliever Jordan Sheffield for assignment. The move frees a spot on the 40-man roster for outfielder Wynton Bernard, whose previously-reported contract selection has been made official. Colorado placed center fielder Yonathan Daza (separated left shoulder) and catcher Elias Díaz (left wrist sprain) on the 10-day injured list, recalling Dom Nuñez to take Díaz’s spot behind the dish.
Sheffield, a former supplemental first-round pick of the Dodgers, landed in Colorado over the 2020-21 offseason via the Rule 5 draft. He spent all of last season in the majors, as required for a team to retain a Rule 5 pick’s rights. Sheffield worked as a low-leverage arm for skipper Bud Black, pitching to a 3.38 ERA across 29 1/3 innings. His strikeout and walk rates (17.2% and 11.2%, respectively) didn’t align with that quality run prevention. Nevertheless, Sheffield averaged 96.4 MPH with top-of-the-scale raw spin on his four-seam fastball, making him an interesting long-term relief option for the Rox.
Things have fallen apart during the Vanderbilt product’s second year in the organization. He’s made only two big league appearances, with his fastball velocity sitting at a diminished 93.7 MPH. He’s been blasted over 21 appearances with Triple-A Albuquerque, posting an 11.21 ERA with just a 16.3% strikeout rate and a huge 19.6% walk percentage. He’s also surrendered eight home runs in only 17 2/3 innings.
The Rockies will place Sheffield on waivers over the next few days. He’s never previously been outrighted, meaning the organization could keep him around without requiring a 40-man roster spot if he goes unclaimed. That seems likely, given the extent of his struggles in Triple-A this season.
Mariners Designate Ken Giles For Assignment
The Mariners announced they’ve designated reliever Ken Giles for assignment. The move drops Seattle’s 40-man roster tally to 38.
It’s a surprising development, as the M’s didn’t have a pressing need for a spot on the 40-man roster. Giles also hadn’t been occupying a spot on the active roster, as he’s spent the past week and a half on a minor league rehab assignment while working his way back from shoulder tightness. The right-hander has tossed two scoreless innings with Triple-A Tacoma this week, but the organization apparently wasn’t bullish about his chances of fulfilling a key role in the bullpen down the stretch.
The move more or less closes the books on a two-year free agent deal that didn’t pan out as the club had hoped. The M’s signed Giles to a $7MM guarantee over the 2020-21 offseason. He’d undergone Tommy John surgery the previous October, but the organization agreed to pay him $1.5MM while rehabbing from the injury last year. In exchange, they got a potentially elite reliever who’d posted a 1.87 ERA while striking out almost 40% of opponents over 53 innings in 2019. The deal came with a 2022 salary of just $5MM, which would be massive bargain if Giles recaptured his pre-surgery form, along with a $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season.
Giles wound up making just five MLB appearances within the course of that deal. He missed all of last season, as expected. While the hope had been he’d been ready to go for Opening Day this year, he suffered a finger injury in Spring Training that cost him more than two months. Giles made his Mariners debut on June 21 and spent a little more than two weeks on the active roster. He worked 4 1/3 scoreless frames, allowing just one hit but walking four batters against six strikeouts. In that brief look, Giles’ fastball averaged 94.8 MPH and his slider checked in at 84.1 MPH. That’s solid velocity, but down from the respective 96.9 MPH and 86.4 MPH averages from his 2019 work.
After five outings, Giles went down with the shoulder issue from which he’s been trying to work his way back. Between the diminished velocity and the shoulder tightness, the Mariners decided to move on from the 31-year-old.
The trade deadline has already passed, so Seattle will have to place Giles on outright or release waivers in the coming days. There’s no real difference between the two in this case, as he has well over five years of major league service time. That gives him the right to refuse a minor league assignment while still collecting the remainder of his guaranteed salary even if he clears waivers. The league’s 29 other teams will have an opportunity to add Giles for the stretch run. If they all pass, he’s almost certain to test free agency.
Any team that claims Giles would be responsible for the remainder of this year’s salary (around $1.5MM). A claiming team would get the right to the club option, but they’d also be on the hook for the $500K buyout if they declined the option. Given Giles’ lack of recent experience, it seems likely he’ll go unclaimed on waivers, although that’d be a more than reasonable price to pay if another team thought he could recapture something like his 2019 form.
If Giles clears waivers and hits free agency, the Mariners would remain on the hook for essentially all of that tab. They’d have to pay the buyout on next year’s option as well as all of his remaining 2022 salary, except for the prorated portion of the $700K league minimum for any time he spends on another team’s MLB roster (which would be paid by the signing club). Should Giles go unclaimed and sign elsewhere, he’d be a free agent after this season; the ’23 team option would not carry over to another team unless he’s claimed off waivers.
Marlins Outright Billy Hamilton
The Marlins have outrighted outfielder Billy Hamilton to Triple-A Jacksonville and optioned outfielder Bryan De La Cruz to Jacksonville, tweets Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. That pair of moves makes room for infielder/outfielders Jon Berti and Brian Anderson to be reinstated from the injured list.
That Hamilton has already been outrighted to Triple-A indicates that he passed through waivers unclaimed. Given the time of year and the number of teams that could view him as a vital defensive replacement/pinch-runner late in the season, that’s a bit of a surprise. That said, Hamilton also has the ability to reject this assignment in favor of free agency, which would allow him the opportunity to potentially latch on with a contender.
Hamilton, 31, appeared in 20 games with the Marlins but, reflective of the role in which he’ll most often find himself at this point in his career, logged just 15 plate appearances. The former top prospect averaged 57 steals per season with the Reds from 2014-17 and has long been regarded as one of the best defensive players in the sport, regardless of position. His offense has never matched the baserunning and defensive value, however, and his typically pedestrian output at the plate has dwindled even further in recent years.
Dating back to the 2019 season, the switch-hitting Hamilton is a .209/.266/.293 hitter in 241 plate appearances. Though he had a knack for putting the ball in play early in his career, he’s fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances over the past two seasons.
That said, Hamilton has gone 16-for-16 in stolen bases over the past two seasons and is 321-for-392 (81.9%) in his career. He’s also racked up a whopping 74 Defensive Runs Saved and 59 Outs Above Average to go along with a 57.9 Ultimate Zone Rating in 6865 career innings in the outfield (nearly all coming in center).
Michael Brantley Undergoes Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
The Astros announced Friday that outfielder Michael Brantley, who has been out since June due to a shoulder issue, underwent an arthroscopic procedure to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. The surgery will end his season.
Since Brantley was placed on the injured list, the Astros have been vague regarding the nature of Brantley’s injury. General manager James Click said in July that there were no updates on Brantley other than that the team was waiting for inflammation in his shoulder to subside. Acting manager Joe Espada (filling in while Dusty Baker was out due to Covid-19) said earlier this week that Brantley was seeking a second opinion.
Today’s announcement is the first indication of structural damage within the shoulder. This is the second time in Brantley’s career that he’s required surgery on this shoulder; he also suffered a small tear in his labrum late in the 2015 campaign and eventually underwent surgery that November.
Brantley, 35, is the second season of a two-year, $32MM contract with the Astros. It’s the second consecutive two-year, $32MM deal he’s signed with Houston, where he’s now played since the 2019 campaign. He’s appeared in 64 games and taken 277 plate appearances this season, batting .288/.370/.418 with five homers, 14 doubles and a triple. In all, Brantley has batted a combined .306/.368/.464 in just over 1600 regular-season plate appearances as an Astro, plus an additional 211 plate appearances of .314/.376/.408 production in the postseason.
If that’s the end of Brantley’s run with the Houston franchise, he’ll go down as an immensely successful veteran signing. There’s no option on Brantley’s contract, so he’s set to become a free agent in a couple months’ time. The Astros did not provide a timetable for when he might return to playing. The Astros’ announcement added that Click will speak to reporters in a couple hours, so further updates could be provided at that time.
The ‘Stros have been dealing with Brantley’s absence for some time already, most regularly turning to Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez and Aledmys Diaz in his absence. Houston acquired Trey Mancini from the Orioles prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline, but Baker has voiced a reluctance to play him in the outfield, given Mancini’s limited outfield work in recent seasons. (More broadly, he’s opted to sit Mancini nearly as often as start him since the trade, much to the chagrin of Astros fans.)
Subtracting Brantley from the outfield mix entirely puts a damper on the potential postseason roster, as players like McCormick and Diaz — generally viewed as depth/bench options — will now be pressed into more full-time duty. Add in the ongoing struggles of center fielder Jake Meyers, who’s batting just .218/.260/.328 this season (and .147/.205/.221 over his past 23 games), and the outfield is at least a potential area of concern for the remainder of the year. It also stands out as a natural area of focus for Click and his staff in the coming offseason, whether they pursue a Brantley reunion or look for alternatives on the free-agent and/or trade markets.
Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann
Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429
Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.
Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620
After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.
Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.
Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA
During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.
Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545
Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.
Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.
Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA
Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.
In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.
Five More
Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.
Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.
Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.
Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.
Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.
Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.
Mets Hoping To Retain Brandon Nimmo
The Mets’ roster is facing a good bit of potential turnover this winter, with Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Chris Bassitt, Brandon Nimmo, Taijuan Walker, Seth Lugo and Trevor May among the many names able to reach free agency. DeGrom has an opt-out he’s said he plans to exercise even after missing time due to injury. Bassitt has a mutual option, which are very rarely exercised by both parties. Walker has a player option he should be able to easily surpass on the open market.
The 29-year-old Nimmo (30 next March) is a pure free agent at season’s end, but he tells Mike Puma of the New York Post that the Mets informed him as recently as the All-Star break that they’re hopeful of retaining him beyond the current season. There’s no indication the two have engaged in meaningful extension talks, but teams have a five-day exclusive negotiating window with their own free agents following the conclusion of the World Series. Failing to reach a new deal in that window — or sooner, as nothing’s technically preventing the two sides from speaking now — will prompt the team to make a decision on a potential qualifying offer for Nimmo.
Nimmo is a somewhat under-the-radar QO candidate, even with the hefty price point somewhere in the $18-19MM range. He’s been a bargain playing on a $7MM salary this season, hitting .269/.355/.421 with 10 homers, 21 doubles, five triples and anywhere from average to plus defensive marks in center field (-1 DRS, 2.7 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average). Opinions on the overall quality of his glovework may vary, but Nimmo has at the very least made himself into a passable defender who’s nowhere near the liability in center field he was just a few years ago.
On a rate basis, Nimmo has quietly been one of the league’s most-productive offensive players over the past several years. Dating back to 2018, he’s a .267/.387/.448 hitter in 1861 plate appearances. Out of 295 qualified hitters in that time, he’s tied with Mookie Betts and Alex Bregman for the sixth-best on-base percentage in baseball, and he has the game’s 15th-highest walk rate (13.7%). Nimmo’s brand of OBP-driven value at the plate may not hold the same appeal to fans as that of a prototypical .290-.310 hitter or 30-homer slugger, but it’s one that MLB front offices have proven to value nonetheless — particularly in center field, a premium position on the defensive spectrum (see: Dexter Fowler, Lorenzo Cain). By measure of wRC+, Nimmo has been 36% better than league average at the plate since 2018.
The elephant in the room, of course, is the necessity of specifying “on a rate basis.” Nimmo is a very good or even great offensive contributor when he’s been on the field … but health issues have hampered him immensely throughout the years. In his Major League career, Nimmo has been on the injured list for a hamstring strain, a partially collapsed lung, a finger contusion, a neck injury (which kept him out more than three months), a bone bruise in his hand and another hamstring strain. Even prior to his MLB days, Nimmo suffered a torn ACL (playing high school football), a strain in his other ACL (in the minors) and a torn tendon in his left foot. It is a long list of injuries. Since 2018, he’s played in 69.7% of possible games with the Mets.
Notably, Nimmo has been healthy for the bulk of the 2022 season. He spent four days on the Covid-related injured list earlier this season but has otherwise been a mainstay in the lineup and in center field. His walk rate is “down” to 9.1% (still above the league average), but he’s also striking out in a career-low 16.7% of his plate appearances.
When looking at a player’s free agency, age and market context also matter greatly. Nimmo will turn 30 on March 27 next year, which makes him on the younger end what’s typical for free agents. He’s also one of very few everyday center field options on the 2022-23 free agent market. Fellow free agent Kevin Kiermaier has an even longer list of injury troubles, with multiple surgeries on his track record — including a recent season-ending hip surgery from which he’s currently rehabbing. Enrique Hernandez could arguably be included as a true center field option, but he’s about to turn 31 and has hit .209/.273/.340 — his third well below-average offensive season in the past four years — in a year that has also seen him miss more than two months with a strained hip flexor.
Add up Nimmo’s production on a rate basis, his vastly improved defense in center, his age and the generally thin market for center-field help, and he probably has a stronger free-agent case than some would give him credit for. He placed as an honorable mention on MLBTR’s recently updated Free Agent Power Rankings, but Nimmo was No. 11 on our list, sitting just behind his teammate, Diaz.
Coming off a (so far) healthy and productive season, he should be in a good spot to cash in on a multi-year deal that’ll probably exceed the expectations of many onlookers. Nimmo likely didn’t hire the Boras Corporation back in January in hopes of negotiating a team-friendly extension, after all. The aforementioned Cain/Fowler contracts ($80MM and $82.5MM, respectively) figure to be benchmarks Nimmo’s camp will look to exceed.
Ricketts: Cubs “Making Progress” In Rebuild, Plan To Be “Active” In Free Agency
After a confounding trade deadline in which the Cubs held onto catcher Willson Contreras and (less surprisingly) outfielder Ian Happ, they’re currently 15 games out of first place in the NL Central 19 games under .500 and 23rd in the Majors with a -74 run differential. It’s a 67-win pace that puts them on course for an even worse finish than in 2021, when they went 71-91.
Despite the poor results and a farm system ranked 18th by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel in his post-trade-deadline update, Cubs owner Tom Ricketts declared in a statement to the Chicago Tribune that the Cubs are “making progress” on their “plan to return to championship contention.”
As one would expect, Ricketts’ comments were vague and lacking in detail. He praised manager David Ross’ ability to keep the roster “playing hard,” lamented some injuries on the pitching staff that have rendered the rotation less competitive than hoped, and cited the number of one- and two-run games in which the Cubs have been involved as evidence of how close his club is to competing. Of course, Ricketts did not address the lack of pitching depth that made those rotation injuries so problematic (and necessitated the glut of one-year stopgaps in the first place), nor did he make mention of the 19 times the Cubs have lost by five or more runs this season.
More broadly, Ricketts vowed to be “very active again” with regard to the free-agent market. There’s no denying that the Cubs, who inked a dozen players to Major League contracts last winter, were indeed “active” in free agency, but the vast majority of their signings were small-scale transactions that hardly moved the needle for the organization. The Cubs opportunistically signed Marcus Stroman to a deal that fell shy of expectations after his market didn’t develop as strongly as hoped and, in a more aggressive play, outbid the field for Nippon Professional Baseball star Seiya Suzuki.
Faced with other needs up and down the roster, however, the Cubs went with placeholders. There were plenty of rumors regarding Carlos Correa, but Correa told Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago last month that the Cubs never made an actual offer and that their purported interest amounted to little more than “checking in” on his status. “They were more in that rebuilding process,” Correa told Wittenmyer. The Cubs ultimately signed Andrelton Simmons for a year and $4MM, pairing him with Jonathan Villar (one year, $6MM) in the infield.
Beyond Stroman’s three-year deal, which allows him to opt out after the 2023 season, the Cubs addressed their pitching staff by claiming Wade Miley off waivers from the payroll-slashing Reds and signing Drew Smyly to a one-year, $4.25MM deal. Relievers David Robertson, Mychal Givens, Chris Martin and Daniel Norris were signed to one-year deals with the clear intent of flipping them at the deadline, and to the credit of president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, the Cubs succeeded in three of those four endeavors. (Norris struggled and was released last month.)
The Cubs’ only other moves of real note were a one-year, $1.5MM deal with former Yankees prospect Clint Frazier and a two-year, $13MM pact with veteran catcher Yan Gomes, the latter spurring speculation about an offseason deal involving Contreras. However, it’s mid-August and Contreras is still in Chicago, likely to net the team a compensatory draft pick in the 75 to 80 range once he rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere. Frazier, meanwhile, went unclaimed on waivers back in June.
Unless Ricketts’ use of “very active again” is a reference to several years ago, when the Cubs routinely flexed their big-market muscle, it’s a bit misleading. The Cubs took a quantity-over-quality approach to the market last year, and even their big-ticket items, Stroman and Suzuki, were value plays to an extent — Stroman because of the unexpectedly short-term nature of his deal and Suzuki because the price for a potentially prime-aged, high-end right fielder was weighed down by the inherent uncertainty tied to all NPB/KBO stars who’ve yet to face MLB opposition.
There has again been speculation about the Cubs diving headlong into this offseason’s market and signing one of the premier free-agent shortstops available: Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson. The last time the Cubs spent anywhere near that level was when they inked the since-traded Yu Darvish for $126MM, however, and it’d be more accurate to say they haven’t truly gone to that level for a free agent since the ill-fated Jason Heyward signing.
Obviously, no team is going to be constructed primarily through free agency. History will tell us that efforts to do so are generally a fool’s errand. But the the Cubs also don’t have much in the way of locked in, long-term core pieces under club control. There’s been no indication they’ve made serious efforts to extend Contreras, who appears likely to sign elsewhere this winter. That leaves Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson and (if he pans out) Suzuki as the closest things resembling long-term options on the roster. Happ will be a free agent after the 2023 season. Nick Madrigal has struggled immensely since returning from last year’s season-ending hamstring tear. Much of the remaining roster is comprised of journeymen already in their 30s (e.g. Patrick Wisdom, Rafael Ortega, Adrian Sampson, Mark Leiter Jr.).
Hoyer, by all accounts, did well at the 2021 trade deadline working to move short-term rentals everyone expected to move. Outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, in particular, was a nice pull from the Mets organization and now ranks prominently among the sport’s top 50 prospects at Baseball America and at FanGraphs. The attrition rate among prospects is enormous, however, and the Cubs don’t have the type of bustling farm system that affords them too many opportunities to miss. The system is also thin on high-end pitching prospects, which is problematic — particularly when considering the organization’s general struggles to develop pitchers; in the past decade, the only pitchers drafted by the Cubs with at least 1 WAR in the Majors are Zack Godley (1.4), Dylan Cease (7.4), Steele (1.9) and Thompson (2.5). Steele and Thompson are the only ones to find success wearing a Cubs uniform.
None of this is to say the Cubs are somehow doomed. The front office and player development staff has turned over, to varying extents, following Hoyer’s ascension to head of baseball operations. The farm system is undeniably better off than when the Cubs set out into this rebuild. Hoyer and his staff deserve credit for the prospects reeled in at the ’21 trade deadline, and the recent decision to deal Scott Effross with another five years of club control remaining netted them a pitcher (Hayden Wesneski) who is arguably the organization’s top arm now.
Ownership talk of “progress” and being “very active,” however, is undoubtedly an effort to boost fan interest for the 2023 season, but with so much work yet to be done, it’s hard to imagine the Cubs turning things around and competing as early as next season. Even if they were to add a marquee shortstop this winter, they’d likely be doing so while simultaneously bidding farewell to one of the game’s better catchers, rendering a theoretical new addition closer to a break-even proposition than it’d appear at first glance (from an overall team value perspective).
If anything, the biggest factor in the Cubs’ “progress” seems to just be the passing of time. They’re one year closer to being out from under Heyward’s contract and shedding smaller but unpalatable contractual commitments (e.g. David Bote, the money being paid to the Padres under the Darvish trade). By the time the 2023-24 offseason rolls around, the Cubs will be down to $50MM in guaranteed money on the following season’s books — or just $29MM if Stroman opts out. That 2024 season feels like a more realistic target for a truly competitive roster.
Braves Place Max Fried On Concussion-Related Injured List
The Braves placed left-hander Max Fried on the seven-day injured list for concussion-related injuries. Righty Jay Jackson was called up from Triple-A to take Fried’s spot on the active roster.
Fried’s placement is backdated to August 8, two days after the southpaw took an awkward fall while attempting a fielding play in Atlanta’s 6-2 loss to the Mets. Fried was holding his head in the aftermath of the play but remained in the game and tossed three more innings.
After a few days of further evaluation, it appears as though the Braves have decided that Fried needs some more time to recover. He’ll miss his next start but hopefully no more, though it is hard to predict when concussion symptoms could fully dissipate.
Fried is in the midst of another excellent season, with a 2.60 ERA/3.36 SIERA over 22 starts and 138 1/3 innings. Despite a middling strikeout rate, Fried has been excellent at inducing grounders (50.5% groundball rate) and soft contact, and his 4.5% walk rate is among the best in the game. The 28-year-old has emerged as a front-of-the-rotation ace, and his health is key to Atlanta’s chance of repeating as World Series champions.
Since today is an off-day for the Braves, the team has a bit of flexibility in aligning its rotation in Fried’s absence. The left-hander was scheduled to start against the Marlins on Friday, but Atlanta could simply bump the other starters up one day and hope that Fried is able to return before his next turn in the rotation. The recently-optioned Ian Anderson is likely the first choice for a spot start should Fried have to miss more time.
Minor MLB Transactions: Jackson, Sharp
Checking in a couple recent minor league deals:
- The Giants signed utilityman Drew Jackson to a non-roster contract last week. He’s been assigned to Triple-A Sacramento, where he’s appeared in five games. A former Seattle draftee, Jackson has played in the Mariners, Dodgers, Orioles, Mets and A’s organizations before landing with San Francisco. He got into three big league games with Baltimore in 2019 and returned to the majors for a trio of contests with the A’s this April. Jackson was brought up as a COVID substitute but quickly landed on the virus list himself and was then returned to the minor leagues. He hit .243/.353/.297 through 173 plate appearances with Triple-A Las Vegas, drawing walks at a robust 13.3% clip but striking out at a massive 32.4% rate. Oakland released the 29-year-old late last month.
- The Red Sox agreed to a minor league pact with right-hander Sterling Sharp on Tuesday, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. Sharp was released from a non-roster arrangement with the Nationals last week. Now 27, Sharp was regarded among the better pitching prospects in the Washington farm system during his time in the lower minors. The sinkerballer was a Rule 5 draftee of the Marlins in 2020. He broke camp and made four MLB appearances with Miami, allowing seven runs in 5 1/3 innings, before being designated for assignment and returned to Washington. Sharp has spent the past two years in the upper levels of the Nats’ system, including a 2022 campaign at Triple-A Rochester. He started 13 of his 18 appearances but was tagged for a 6.62 ERA with a below-average 19.3% strikeout rate over 66 2/3 innings for the Red Wings.