Opening Day Set For April 7
6:35pm: Tim Healey of Newsday reports (Twitter link) that the league and union also agreed to a series of games or tours in various destinations outside the United States and Canada. During the next CBA, they’ll stage events in Mexico, Asia, Puerto Rico, London, the Dominican Republic and Paris.
5:25pm: Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal reports (on Twitter) that beginning in 2023, the schedule will be adjusted such that every team plays all 29 opponents in each season. The exact format is to be determined, but those games will come attached to a decrease in the number of intra-divisional games teams will play. Previously, teams played 19 games per season against all four of their divisional opponents.
2:34pm: With the new collective bargaining agreement in place, Opening Day will be set for April 7, as first reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links). It’ll be a 162-game season with full player pay, with the end of the season pushed back three days and doubleheaders in place to compensate for the one-week delayed start. Spring Training games will begin around March 18.
Players will be able to report to Spring Training tomorrow, tweets Jeff Passan of ESPN. The mandatory spring report date is Sunday, March 13, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.
MLB had announced yesterday it was canceling games through April 13. However, today’s progress in negotiations led the league to backtrack on that stance. Nothing has been made official on the league’s end — presumably, that’s pending this evening’s ownership ratification, which is expected to be a formality. At that point, the league figures to make a formal announcement on the schedule. Presumably, it’d reinstate the originally scheduled games it nominally wiped out yesterday, but there’s been no word on that yet.
Manfred: Reporters Will Have Clubhouse Access In 2022
At today’s press conference announcing the end of the lockout, Commissioner Rob Manfred stated that reporters would have access to major league clubhouses in 2022 (relayed by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post noted last month that MLB had expressed its support for the return of clubhouse access but that had been subject to approval from the MLB Players Association.
Apparently, the union is on-board with the development. For the past two seasons, reporters haven’t had clubhouse access on account of the COVID-19 health and safety protocols. As with the pandemic inspired on-field rules changes, the ban on media personnel in clubhouses will be dropped this year as concerns about the virus’ impact on the sport have lessened.
The return of clubhouse access figures to be a welcome development for reporters. Expanding individual access to players and avoiding possible technological difficulties associated with speaking over video chat are among the potential benefits for reporters speaking with players and staff for stories. Shortly after MLB first suspended clubhouse access, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote about the advantages he felt it afforded reporters, which he opined has a trickle-down benefit for fans consuming their stories.
MLB Owners Ratify CBA; Transactions Officially Unfrozen
5:28pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that the owners unanimously voted to ratify the new CBA. After 99 days, the lockout and accompanying transactions freeze have officially been lifted.
3:47pm: MLB owners are expected to ratify the new collective bargaining agreement at 6:00pm eastern/5:00pm central time tonight, according to Andy Martino of SNY. Transactions are set to unfreeze immediately thereafter, meaning teams will again be able to sign free agents and make trades. Upon locking out the players on December 2, MLB also instituted a transaction freeze, which ended up lasting 99 excruciating days.
We’re expecting an unprecedented level of MLB hot stove action crammed into a 28-day period, with Opening Day set for April 7. Hundreds of free agents are still without jobs, including 20 of MLBTR’s top 50 of the offseason. Click here to review the best remaining free agents, led by Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, and Seiya Suzuki. Check out the full free agent list here. To review which free agents signed prior to the lockout, click here. My ballpark estimate is that around 60 free agents will sign MLB deals between now and Opening Day. Old qualifying offer rules remain in place for this group of free agents, meaning that if new teams sign Correa, Freeman, Story, Castellanos, and Conforto, they’ll be subject to draft pick forfeiture.
Several factors will affect exactly how aggressive teams are in pursuing free agents. One is how many executives bent the rules and communicated with agents during the lockout, potentially laying groundwork for instant agreements.
Another is the new competitive balance tax thresholds. The base tax threshold will rise from $210MM in 2021 to $230MM this year, a 9.5% increase. By 2026, the base tax threshold will reach $244MM. There are three additional tax tiers beyond the base threshold at $20MM increments, the last of which is a new addition with this CBA. In 2021, only the Dodgers and Padres exceeded the base tax threshold, but five other teams came within $3.4MM of it. The teams that prefer to treat the base tax threshold as a soft salary cap now have an additional $20MM to play with in 2022.
It’s also worth considering the new anti-tanking measures agreed to by MLB and the players. They’ll be instituting a draft lottery for the first six picks, and also penalties for landing near the bottom of the standings multiple years in a row (we’ll explore that fully later). In theory, rebuilding clubs could become a little more active in the market.
An additional major CBA change that may affect free agency is the move from 10 to 12-team playoffs. The bar for entry into the playoffs has been lowered. That could push a fringe contender to acquire players. On the flip side, a team projecting itself for 90+ wins may feel certain additions are now unnecessary with fewer wins required to make the playoffs.
The universal DH is also part of the mix, with bat-first free agents like Nick Castellanos, Nelson Cruz, and Jorge Soler now becoming more palatable for National League teams.
Trading was minimal prior to the lockout, so expect a burst of activity in that area as well. MLBTR covered the 14 likeliest trade candidates, impact players with a chance to move, and 27 more regulars with a plausible chance of being traded. The Athletics, Reds, and Mets figure to be in the thick of many trade discussions. Again, it’s possible executives were conducting covert trade talks during the lockout, but we don’t know for sure. What we do know: we’re excited to switch from lockout coverage to free agency and trades. Thanks for hanging in there with us.
Yankees Had Pre-Lockout Interest In Michael Conforto
Prior to the lockout, the Yankees had interest in outfielder Michael Conforto, according to The New York Post’s Mike Puma (Twitter link). The Bronx Bombers join the Rockies and Marlins as the only teams publicly linked to Conforto’s market, though over a dozen teams reportedly checked in on the former All-Star around the start of the free agent period.
The possibility of Conforto jumping from the Mets to the Yankees creates some natural Big Apple intrigue, plus Conforto would seem like a good fit in the Yankees’ lineup. The Bombers are short on left-handed bats, and though Conforto slots in most naturally as the new everyday left fielder, he can also play right field (in the event of an injury or just a DH day for Aaron Judge) or even center field in a pinch, should Aaron Hicks run into more injury woes.
The short porch at Yankee Stadium has been a boon to many a left-handed hitter, and it could help Conforto bounce back from an ill-timed down year just as he was on the verge of free agency. Conforto hit .232/.344/.384 with 14 homers over 479 PA — still above average (101 OPS+, 106 wRC+) production, though well behind the numbers he posted from 2015-20.
Conforto may have been hampered by a hamstring strain that cost him five weeks on the injured list, and teams will surely also note that Conforto’s 2021 Statcast numbers were largely unchanged from his career norms, apart from a drop in barrels and barrel rate. Still, the Yankees or any other interested clubs surely have some concern over guaranteeing a big multi-year contract (and giving up a draft pick, since Conforto rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer) to player coming off a rather underwhelming season.
With that platform year in mind, there was speculation that Conforto could be open to a shorter-term contract with an opt-out clause, or perhaps just a straight one-year deal. Such an arrangement would allow Conforto to quickly re-enter free agency next winter on what he certainly hopes will be on the heels of a stronger 2022 season, not to mention a normal offseason that won’t be interrupted by a lockout. Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation, and Scott Boras is no stranger to unique contracts (such as the swell-opt) that allow his clients both some flexibility and the possibility of locking in more longer-term money.
The Yankees have done plenty of business with Boras in the past, and in fact another Boras client in Gerrit Cole represents the last QO-rejecting free agent the Yankees signed without regard to the draft pick compensation. Naturally, there is a vast difference between Cole and Conforto’s situations, and thus the Yankees likely have some wariness about surrendering their second-highest 2022 draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool money in exchange for signing Conforto.
That said, if Conforto was open to a shorter-term deal, he could fit into the Yankees’ reported preference for such contracts. New York offered a one-year, $25MM pact to another QO free agent in Justin Verlander before Verlander re-signed with the Astros, and the Yankees’ reported post-lockout plan is to monitor the shortstop market to see if any major names (i.e. the still-unsigned Carlos Correa or Trevor Story) could be amendable to a shorter-term arrangement. It stands to reason that the Yankees could expand this strategy beyond just shortstops, and to any prominent free agents like Conforto who can address other areas of need on the Bombers’ roster, while still not tying the club to a lengthy commitment.
March 22 Set As New Date For Teams, Players To Exchange Arbitration Figures
Dozens of arbitration-eligible players still have to get their salaries figured out for the 2022 season, and now that the lockout is over, March 22 is the new deadline for teams and players to submit numbers, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). Since a good number of these arbitration cases won’t be settled by March 22, this means arb hearings will stretch into the actual regular season, which is now set to begin on April 7.
As usual, teams will reduce their list of arbitration-eligibles via contract agreements prior to March 22, or perhaps even by trading or releasing some eligible players. Though the official non-tender deadline still took place just prior to the lockout, it could be that some clubs have simply changed their minds on some players, or have new priorities in terms of cutting or adding to payroll. With this in mind, the likelihood of even more players becoming available will only add to what already be an absolute frenzy of a free agent and trade market in the aftermath of the lockout.
The sheer amount of front office business could see a shift in how teams or players address these arbitration cases. While obviously both sides have a specific price in mind and aren’t going to agree to a major discount, there could be a little bit more sway on one side or the other just in the same of getting a deal done. The sooner an agreement is reached, the sooner the player can fully concentrate on getting ready for the season, and the team can check one item off a lengthy to-do list.
In recent years, clubs have been more apt to deploy the “file and trial” strategy of not negotiating (apart from discussing multi-year extensions) after the figure-exchange deadline for arb-eligible players. The strategy is to exert a bit of pressure on players to accept an arb-avoiding contract in advance of the deadline, so both sides can sidestep the uncertainty that often goes into an arbitration hearing. It remains to be seen if teams may be more willing to bend on talks post-deadline just in the name of getting a one-year settled pre-hearing, or if teams may perhaps be even more prone to “file and trial” tactics if they feel they have added leverage on particular players.
However, since hearings won’t take place until after Opening Day, some players will begin the season not knowing that they’ll exactly be earning, thus creating a very unusual situation and adding another wrinkle to a process that already lends itself to awkwardness. It isn’t uncommon for some hard feelings to develop from these hearings, and now a situation has been created where a team can openly criticize a player during a morning arbitration hearing, and then rely on that same player to be in the starting lineup of that evening’s game. While an arbiter will only be considering 2021 statistics in determining a 2022 salary, it is possible that some on-field events early in 2022 (a particularly hot or cold start by the player, or an injury) could impact how either side approaches presenting their case to the arbiter.
Of note, the 2021-22 arbitration-eligible players are all still subject to the rules of the previous collective bargaining agreement. That said, there also weren’t many big changes made to the arb process under the new CBA, as the league refused to even discuss the standards relating to the amount of service time required to gain salary arbitration, or even to the player’s desire for a large increase in the number of Super Two-eligible players. However, pre-arbitration players will now enter their arb years on higher base salaries, thanks to the new bonus pool system for pre-arbitration players and the increase in the minimum salary.
One interesting detail does exist, as MLBTR has learned that for players who will be arbitration-eligible for the first time next winter, their statistics from the shortened 2020 season will be extrapolated to fit what the player “would have” done had the season been a standard 162 games. A player who hit 10 home runs in 2020, for instance, would be treated as if he had hit 27 homers. This formula involving 2020’s statistics will be used for all future arbitration hearings going forward. However, no such formula exists regarding the 2020 season for this year’s arb class, so teams and players can make whatever arguments they wish in hearings given the lack of a uniform standard for how 2020 statistics should be addressed.
MLB Trade Rumors has used Matt Swartz’s model for projecting arbitration salaries for the last 11 years, and here are the projections for both the remaining arb-eligible players, as well as the numbers for the players who agreed to deals prior to the non-tender deadline.
MLBPA Drops 2020 Grievance Against MLB, Will Not Drop Grievances Against Pirates, A’s, Marlins, Rays
MLB’s lockout is finally over, although details regarding the late stages of collective bargaining talks are still emerging. One revelation late in the process was that the league was not only requesting that the MLBPA drop previously filed grievances against the Rays, A’s, Pirates and Marlins (which pertained to their usage of revenue-sharing funds), but also to drop a $500MM grievance filed in wake of return-to-play negotiations in the Covid-shortened 2020 season. Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated reports that the MLBPA did indeed drop the 2020 grievance but did not drop the grievances against the Tampa Bay, Oakland, Pittsburgh and Miami franchises.
The now-dropped grievance pertaining to the 2020 season was filed in May 2021 and saw the union seek $500MM in total. The grievance alleged that MLB negotiated in bad faith during return-to-play negotiations and had not done everything in its power to play as many games as possible. The league originally indicated that it hoped to fast-track any subsequent proceedings so they did not impact the looming collective bargaining talks, but that clearly never came to be. The MLBPA was seeking what amounted to 20-plus games worth of retroactive pay, contending that those games could have been played had the league made its “best effort” to return to play, as had been previously agreed upon. That suit will now be put to bed, it seems.
As for the others, the initial grievances were filed in Feb. 2018, alleging that the teams had not sufficiently dedicated their revenue-sharing funds to improving the on-field product. Revenue sharing is collectively bargained, and the spirit of the issue is intended to be one of competitive balance; that is to say, those funds are technically intended to help small-market clubs keep pace with their larger-market peers. The grievances were expanded in subsequent years, as the union continued to contend that those teams were not properly utilizing those funds.
The Rays, notably, authored multiple winning seasons during that time and did put forth a fairly sizable two-year, $30MM offer to sign Charlie Morton. The other three clubs in question spent at more minimal levels and, in the cases of Pittsburgh and Miami in particular, did not enjoy the same level of on-field success. Those organizations figure to contend that said revenue-sharing funds were allocated to other important organizational measures that improve the team, even if not directly through adding to the current Major League payroll (e.g. investments in player development, analytics, international scouting and other less-tangible areas).
Precisely what the union is seeking in relief and just when the grievances might eventually be resolved — either by an arbitrator or, should commissioner Rob Manfred agree that sanctions are needed, by punishing the clubs in question — are not yet clear.
Postseason Expands To 12 Teams; First Round Will Be Three-Game Series
As expected, the collective bargaining agreement expanded the postseason field from ten teams to twelve. Travis Sawchik of The Score reports the format (via Twitter): the top two division winners in each league receive first-round byes, while the worst division winner and the three Wild Card teams per league will play three-game sets to advance to the Division Series. The worst division winner will face the final Wild Card qualifier, while the top two Wild Card clubs will take on one another.
There is no “ghost win” involved. The Players Association had previously floated the possibility of division winners starting with a one-game advantage in any first-round set against a Wild Card club. MLB opposed that idea, and it didn’t make it into the final agreement.
The union’s push for a “ghost win” seemed more rooted in concerns about a potential 14-team format than with the 12-team arrangement, though. The MLBPA was unenthused by the possibility of going to 14 playoff teams, fearing that doing so would disincentivize clubs from ardently upgrading their rosters if they believed they were already comfortable postseason qualifiers.
Ultimately, the union held firm on the 12-team playoff this time around. Describing that as a loss for the league, which had sought 14 for most of negotiations, wouldn’t be entirely accurate though. Going from 10 to 12 clubs marked a major concession in its own right; the introduction of a new round of the postseason is worth a reported $85MM annually for the league under the terms of its broadcasting arrangement with ESPN. That’s before accounting for gate and concession revenue for clubs hosting those additional games.
With the postseason expansion, the Wild Card game is no more. The one-game playoff between the two Wild Card clubs in each league took effect with MLB moving from eight to ten postseason qualifiers back in 2012. It remained in place through 2021, but the one-game playoff has been eliminated in favor of three-game series moving forward.
Interestingly, the potential Game 163 tiebreaker has also been scrapped. Jayson Stark of the Athletic reports (Twitter link) there are seeding tiebreakers in place in the event teams finish the year with the same regular season record. The specifics aren’t clear, but other leagues have used such things as head-to-head record between tied clubs and winning percentage in intra-league games as tiebreakers. Rather than conducting a one-game playoff between teams that finish tied for postseason spots, a prearranged formula will determine the field.
Finally, the division series won’t be reseeded, Sawchik reports. The top seed in each league will host the winner of the 4 vs. 5 Wild Card series in the second round, even if the #6 seed beats the #3 seed. That’s a bit of an odd choice on the surface, but it could perhaps aid MLB in marketing the postseason as an NCAA basketball-style bracket.
New CBA Officially Introduces Universal Designated Hitter
Today’s collective bargaining agreement officially introduced the designated hitter to the National League, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. That’s certainly not a surprise, as the universal DH had been one of the earlier principles for MLB and the Players Association to settle.
The union has sought a universal DH for quite some time, with more possibility for aging or defensively-limited players to have regular roles. AL teams have increasingly used the position as a quasi-rest day for regular players rather than committing to a true full-time DH, but six players (Nelson Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Franmil Reyes and Yordan Álvarez) tallied at least 400 plate appearances in the role last season.
Cruz, in particular, could be the most immediate beneficiary of the universal DH’s implementation. He’s a free agent but is unlikely to see much, if any, time in the field next year. The universal DH opens up the opportunity for NL teams that may have otherwise been wary to bid on Cruz. Other bat-first free agents like Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler could also see their respective leaguewide demand propped up a bit.
The league, meanwhile, embraced the universal DH as a means of aiding offense. The sport’s ever-increasing strikeout rate has drawn plenty of consternation. The leaguewide strikeout percentage ticked upwards every year between 2005 and 2020, setting an all-time record each season. Last year finally marked a stop to the record-breaking streak, as the strikeout rate marginally slipped from 23.4% to 23.2%. That’s perhaps a bit encouraging, but last year’s number still checked in almost seven percentage points above 2005’s 16.4% mark.
Pitchers aren’t the only culprit for the decrease in balls in play, but they’ve had real issues making contact. Last year, pitcher-hitters fanned at a 44.2% clip. Overall, they hit .110/.150/.142 across 4,830 plate appearances. That’s ghastly production, even by the historically low standards at the position. Their five highest all-time strikeout rates have come in the last five years of pitcher hitting. Four of the five lowest pitcher-hitters’ wRC+ (which compares their overall offensive output to that season’s league average marks) have come since 2017. However one wants to explain that trend — improved leaguewide velocities, specialization that leads to less practice for pitcher hitting, etc. — pitchers were putting up less of a fight at the plate than ever before.
The development figures to receive varying reception from fans of Senior Circuit teams (although many likely considered it an inevitability some time ago). Aside from its implementation as a pandemic protocol in the shortened 2020 season, the NL has never had the position. Most MLBTR readers, however, seem to favor its introduction. In a December poll, 62% of respondents expressed support for an NL DH; 26% were against the possibility, while 12% were generally apathetic.
The universal DH is the only official on-field rules change for 2022, but two recent pandemic protocols did not survive the CBA. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports (on Twitter) that the nine-inning doubleheader returns, as do standard rules for extra innings. The “ghost runner” provision has been scrapped.
The seven-inning doubleheaders and the extra-innings runner proved divisive provisions among baseball fans in their two years in place. They’d been implemented as part of the COVID-19 protocols, with both provisions designed to lessen player workloads during seasons that could be massively impacted by virus-related postponements. Those concerns aren’t expected to be as prominent in 2022, and it seems neither party was motivated enough to agree to implement them permanently. The league may look to reinstitute those rules at some point down the line, but they won’t be in effect for the upcoming season at the very least.
As part of the CBA, a rules committee will be created in 2023, Feinsand tweets. That committee — a group of four active players, six league appointees and an MLB umpire — will have the authority to implement an on-rules change within 45 days of recommending it to the MLBPA. Previously, the league had to wait one year between asking the union’s approval on a rules change and having the right to implement it in the event the MLBPA refused a bilateral agreement.
MLB technically no longer has sole authority to implement those changes, though its appointees will outnumber the player reps on the rules committee. That probably gives the league de facto control over rules, and it’s expected the league will try to implement three in particular — the implementation of a pitch clock, limits on defensive shifting, and larger bases — for the 2023 campaign. Feinsand suggests the automatic strike zone could also be a topic of discussion at that point, although that’ll become clearer next offseason.
2021 Rule 5 Draft Officially Canceled
The 2021 edition of the Rule 5 Draft has been officially canceled, according to The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (via Twitter). Originally set to take place in December at the end of the Winter Meetings, the R5 was one of the many staples of the baseball calendar postponed by the lockout, and reports surfaced last week that just about all front office personnel around baseball were in favor of simply canceling this year’s draft.
A rescheduled Rule 5 draft would’ve added yet another notable event to a four-week stretch that will be busier than any other in baseball history from a transactional standpoint. Between free agents, trades, arbitration hearings, and the countless other pieces of business that front offices need to address by the new April 7 Opening Day (and likely beyond), the Rule 5 Draft was deemed expendable.
The MLB Players Association would’ve had to agree to the R5’s cancellation, and while the union surely wasn’t pleased about even a one-year break in a mechanism that provides more big league opportunity and big league paychecks to players, it could be that the Rule 5 was seen as a relatively minor point within the many larger items of debate between the union and the owners. Also, since minor league players aren’t officially part of the MLBPA, it could be that the union was simply more focused on the priorities of its actual members.
As it stands, 2021 will mark the first season since 1891 that the Rule 5 Draft (in one form or another) didn’t take place, interrupting one of baseball’s more quietly longstanding traditions. It will be good news for teams like the Guardians, Pirates, Rays, and other clubs who had a surplus of eligible minor league talent that couldn’t all be fit onto the 40-man roster, since now those prospect-heavy teams will get to keep those players rather than risk losing any in a Rule 5 Draft.
However, it could lead to a loaded field of eligible prospects for the 2022 R5, which is presumably still set to take place in December on the last day of the Winter Meetings. A new group of minor leaguers will gain eligibility and join any leftover prospects from this year’s class that still might be left off a 40-man roster, giving teams with more options than usual to choose from come December.
As a refresher, a player selected in a Rule 5 Draft must remain on his new team’s 26-man active roster for an entire season in order for the new team to gain full rights to the player’s services. If the player doesn’t spend the entire season on the active roster or the new team simply decides to part ways with the player, he must be first offered back to his original team for a $50K price. (A team selecting a R5 player must pay a $100K fee.)
MLBPA Reviewing Latest MLB Counterproposal
1:55pm: Heyman tweets that the MLBPA executive subcommittee “appears” to be voting against the proposal, though it’s not clear whether that’s a unanimous decision or whether there’s a split camp among the eight players on that committee. That’s an important distinction, as the MLBPA needs a simple majority among the 30 team union reps and the eight members of the subcommittee — a total of 20 yes votes. In other words, it’s still possible for the union to approve the deal even if the executive subcommittee is against it.
1:45pm: Heyman tweets that MLB’s proposal also requests that the MLBPA drop the $500MM grievance it filed against MLB, wherein the players posited that MLB did not negotiate in good faith during return-to-play talks in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
1:14pm: Heyman tweets that MLB’s proposal calls for spring games to begin around March 17 and for Opening Day to fall on April 5. That would require backtracking on several of the games previously announced to be canceled or “removed from the schedule,” and ESPN’s Jesse Rogers adds that the remaining games would be made up through a series of doubleheaders that, notably, would be nine innings in length.
As notably, Rogers tweets that free agency could reopen as soon as tonight if the two sides reach an agreement and ratify the new CBA today. Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci suggested the same earlier today in an appearance on MLB Network.
1:09pm: The MLB Players Association has received the league’s latest counterproposal, as first reported by ESPN’s Marly Rivera, and is now in the process of reviewing the latest changes proposed by ownership. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the newest proposal saw the league up its proposed pre-arbitration bonus pool from $40MM to $50MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, meanwhile, tweets that there have been a few more modest concessions made in terms of the competitive balance (luxury) tax threshold and the minimum salary. MLB increased its proposed luxury threshold in 2026 (the final year of the proposed CBA) — slightly closing what had been an $8MM gap. The league held firm on its proposed $700K minimum salary for the upcoming season but offered a $10K increase over the $770K it had proposed in 2026 — up to $780K.
The movement on the pre-arbitration pool is the most notable jump made. The two parties had been facing a gap of $25MM, with the players coming in at a $65MM pool in 2022. However, the larger issue is surely whether that pool will grow at all over the life of the agreement. MLB has been steadfast in its push to keep the newly created bonus pool static, whereas the players have sought a $5MM annual increase to the size of the pool.
On the CBT front, the two parties had previously faced annual gaps of $2MM, $3MM, $4MM, $5MM and $8MM over the life of the potential agreement. MLB has held firm on its $230MM, $232MM, $236MM and $240MM threshold proposals from 2022-25, but they’re now proposing a $244MM threshold in 2026.
Notably, Heyman adds that the league’s proposal requests that the MLBPA drop previously filed grievances against the Rays, A’s, Pirates and Marlins — suits that allege that those four organizations had not sufficiently reallocated their revenue-sharing funds toward improving the on-field product. That’s not a new request, MLBTR has learned, but it’s also not one to which the union has previously agreed. That will be among the many topics considered when the union takes its vote — which ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel suggests could be taking place right now.
Confoundingly, Rosenthal indicates that MLB has yet again attempted to set another “deadline” for players, this one at 3:00pm ET today — a bit under an hour from now. MLB’s repeated attempts to set a deadline have not resulted in a deal yet and have generally served to stall negotiations rather than encourage them. The union hasn’t felt compelled to stick to those league-implemented deadlines, but the fact that they union appears to be in the process of voting right now, rather than outright refusing the proposal, at least offers a notable departure from some of the previous and more contentious back-and-forths that have taken place. Also of note, Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base tweets that if a deal is reached before that 3pm “deadline,” players will be allowed to begin reporting voluntarily to their Spring Training facilities as soon as tomorrow.
All of this movement comes after a morning agreement in which the two parties reached a provisional agreement regarding a July deadline to negotiate an international draft that would begin in 2024. If a deal is reached by July 25, the qualifying offer system (and the draft-pick compensation associated with it) will be eliminated. If no deal on the international draft is reached, the qualifying offer system and draft-pick compensation will remain in place, and the current international amateur free agency structure will remain in place.