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Atkins: Blue Jays Still Active In Starting Pitching Market

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The Blue Jays made one of the first strikes of the offseason when they re-signed southpaw Robbie Ray to a one-year, $8MM deal next week. That certainly doesn’t sound as though it’ll be the only rotation addition for Toronto this winter, however. General manager Ross Atkins told reporters in a Zoom call yesterday that he plans to remain active in his pursuit of rotation upgrades.

“I feel good about acquiring another free agent — I can tell you that — in the starting pitcher market,” Atkins said (Twitter thread via the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm). “That doesn’t mean it will happen, but I feel like we have a chance to do it. … If that doesn’t happen, we’ll turn to the trade market. But we’re working on them simultaneously.”

Toronto already has a fairly deep crop of rotation options. Ray joins Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling as likely rotation pieces, with depth pieces including Trent Thornton, T.J. Zeuch, Anthony Kay, Jacob Waguespack, Sean Reid-Foley and others. Because they already have a number of options in place to soak up innings, Atkins made clear that his goal in future additions is not to simply bolster that depth but improve the options at the top of the staff. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets Atkins adopted a quality-over-quantity attitude when talking about the club’s continued pitching pursuits.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Jays are committed to acquiring an ace and nothing else. Adding a solid mid-rotation piece would still be prudent, given that each of Ray, Roark, Stripling and Pearson struggled to varying extents in 2020. If the Jays do want to put the pedal to the metal, so to speak, it’s worth noting that Atkins and club president Mark Shapiro came over from the Indians organization where top free agent Trevor Bauer has spent the bulk of his career.

Lower-risk but still-solid options include the likes of Kevin Gausman, Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Quintana, among many others. Old friend Marcus Stroman is also on the open market, although he had some harsh words for the front office after being traded in 2019. The possibilities on the trade market are too plentiful to count, although the Jays reportedly came close to striking a deal for Pirates righty Joe Musgrove prior to the Aug. 31 trade deadline.

Pirates Name John Baker Director Of Coaching & Player Development

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The Pirates announced Tuesday that they’ve hired former big league catcher John Baker as their new director of coaching and player development. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the hiring of Baker, who’d been with the Cubs since 2016 and spent the 2020 campaign as the club’s mental skills coach.

“We are excited to add John to our baseball operations leadership team,” said general manager Ben Cherington in a press release announcing the move. “John’s experience as a player, his training and experience as a mental skills coach for a highly successful franchise, and his continued learning in the areas of skill acquisition and human performance, give him valuable perspective on the entire player improvement and performance process. John will work closely with our minor league staff and players to help lead our player development program.”

Baker, 39, spent parts of seven seasons in the Majors from 2008-14, hitting a combined .247/.330/.341 through 1228 plate appearances with the Marlins, Padres and Cubs. His first role with the Cubs was as a special assistant with the baseball operations department, and he’s since held the titles of mental skills coordinator and head applied mental skills coach.

Baker isn’t the first recently retired big leaguer to dive into the player development track for the next stage of his baseball career. Former big league infielder Chris Getz is currently serving as the White Sox farm director himself, while former right-hander Brandon Gomes held that same post with the Dodgers prior to being promoted to assistant general manager in 2019.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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A potentially intriguing offseason awaits the Giants, who are positioned to be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams depending on how they approach their long-term spending.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Evan Longoria, 3B: $43MM through 2022 (includes $5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Johnny Cueto, SP: $27MM through 2021 (includes $5MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
  • Buster Posey, C: $24.4MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
  • Brandon Belt, 1B: $16MM through 2021
  • Brandon Crawford, SS: $16MM through 2021
  • Wilmer Flores, INF: $3.25MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $3.5MM club option for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi spent his first two seasons trying to work around the Giants’ long list of guaranteed contracts, but the light can be seen at the end of this financial tunnel.  Evan Longoria is the only player on the books beyond the 2021 season, providing the Giants with quite a bit of room to maneuver going forward and giving them an advantage in an offseason where most teams will limit their spending.

The question, of course, is whether Zaidi will pursue bigger-scale moves this winter or next.  Other than simply acknowledging how payroll “flexibility….will certainly be helpful to us in the current marketplace,” Zaidi hasn’t made any bold statements about his offseason plans, as one might expect.  The Giants suffered revenue losses themselves, and a full-bore splurge of major signings and trades for expensive players might not yet be feasible for the team, nor does such a tactic seem to fit Zaidi’s M.O. for roster construction.

There’s also the matter of the big contracts still on the roster for the coming season, but these deals aren’t quite as onerous as they seemed even a year ago.  Brandon Crawford rebounded nicely from a mediocre 2019 season.  Brandon Belt was quietly one of the better hitters in baseball, ranking fifth among all MLB hitters with a 173 wRC+ (min. 170 plate appearances).  Even Longoria still provided his customary strong third base defense despite a below-average offensive year, though his Statcast metrics indicate that Longoria may have been one of the league’s unluckier hitters.

Beyond these veteran contributions, San Francisco also benefited from continued brilliance from the more unheralded members of its roster.  Maybe Zaidi doesn’t need to spend big in free agency if his front office’s continual flurry of seemingly low-level roster moves keeps finding the likes of MVP candidate Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano, Alex Dickerson, or Darin Ruf.

The result is a team that suddenly looks pretty set in terms of position players, prompting Zaidi to suggest he’ll focus primarily on “complementary” position players.  Dickerson, Mauricio Dubon, and Yastrzemski will patrol the outfield with Ruf and Austin Slater as the first choices for platoon/bench duty.  Longoria, Crawford, Solano, and Belt hold down the regular infield slots with Wilmer Flores getting a lot of action at first or second base (or at DH, if the position exists for NL teams in 2021) and Ruf probably also in the first base mix.

While Solano, Flores, and even Dubon offer some positional versatility, needs might include a proper utility infielder who could be a feasible shortstop option if Crawford was injured.  Daniel Robertson performed pretty well in his limited time as a Giant, and though that might not be enough for San Francisco to tender him a contract, the team could explore re-signing him on a cheaper deal.  Ideally, the Giants would probably prefer to add a left-handed hitter since they’re already heavy on righty bats.

Catcher isn’t necessarily a question mark in terms of personnel, but it’s definitely the biggest unknown in terms of what the Giants can expect.  After undergoing hip surgery late in the 2018 season, Buster Posey didn’t look right for much of 2019 and then opted out of playing in 2020.  It’s anyone’s guess as to what the former NL MVP can produce as he heads into his age-34 season.

Posey projects as the starting catcher while star prospect Joey Bart is likely to start 2021 in the minor leagues to get more seasoning after struggling in his first taste of MLB competition.  Zaidi implied that the team could look to add a veteran backup for Posey while Bart gets some Triple-A time, or could turn to internal options like Chadwick Tromp or Aramis Garcia (who is returning from a hip surgery of his own).

If the Giants have plenty to work with around the diamond, the opposite is true in the starting rotation.  Johnny Cueto was inconsistent in his first full season back after Tommy John surgery.  Tyler Beede will be back after missing a season of his own due to TJ surgery, and Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson will return as middle-to-back-of-the-rotation types.

Beyond that quartet, there isn’t much depth, experienced or otherwise.  Kevin Gausman, Trevor Cahill, Drew Smyly, and Jeff Samardzija are all free agents, leaving some major holes to fill and some major innings to replace.  Smyly and Cahill were limited by injuries but pitched well when healthy, with Smyly working mostly as a traditional starter and Cahill pitching as both a starter and as a reliever.

Zaidi has already said that the Giants are making a “priority” of re-signing Gausman and Smyly, and the first step in that direction was taken when San Francisco issued Gausman a qualifying offer.  If Gausman simply accepts, the Giants will have him back on a one-year, $18.9MM contract, though if the team pursues a multi-year contract, the 2021 payroll would take less of a hit.  This could be something of a replay of Jose Abreu and the White Sox last winter, when Abreu accepted the QO but then worked out an extension with the team after the fact.

The fact that the Giants are willing to pay Gausman $18.9MM even for one season is indicative of a few things.  It speaks to the team’s need for pitching, naturally, and also to how well Gausman pitched in his first year in San Francisco.  In the larger picture, it hints that the Giants may indeed be willing and able to spend this offseason; if Gausman rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, then that theoretically leaves at least $18.9MM that the Giants will have to direct in some fashion towards the roster.

Those funds could be split up among multiple players rather than a single name.  (For example, the total price tag on Gausman, Smyly, Anderson, and Cahill last offseason didn’t even total $18.9MM.)  Whether Gausman re-signs or not, expect the Giants to extend low-cost, one-year contracts to a veteran hurler or two.

But, let’s think a bit bigger.  Looking at the free-agent pitching market, Trevor Bauer is the clear top option.  His stated preference for a team that is both analytically-inclined and willing to let him pitch every fourth day could make him a fit in San Francisco, as Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler have both shown that they’re ready to think outside the box.  Bauer has walked back his previous declarations about only seeking one-year contracts, but the Giants have the payroll space to accommodate both a deal for just 2021 (Samardzija and Zack Cozart’s expiring contracts represent over $30MM coming off the books) or for multiple seasons.

Marcus Stroman is also likely to score a big multi-year contract (though Stroman also has a QO decision to make and he didn’t pitch in 2020 after opting out of the season), but MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents doesn’t project any other starter to earn more than $39MM, with Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi both hitting that threshold on three-year deals.  Could the Giants hedge their bets slightly by making a Tanaka/Odorizzi-esque signing that would provide the rotation with a clear upgrade, yet still not represent a truly bank-breaking investment?

Going to the other side of the pitching department, the Giants plan to add at least one veteran reliever, so they could direct some funds towards bolstering the pen.  GM Scott Harris recently indicated that the club would prefer to develop a closer rather than sign one, but the Giants have the money to pursue a Liam Hendriks or a Brad Hand if they wish.  The Indians’ recent decision to waive Hand (and the subsequent decision of the other 29 teams to not claim him) suggests that there might not be much appetite for spending on relief pitching this winter, so San Francisco could gain an edge on the market by offering relievers contracts even slightly closer to what they would expect to receive in a more normal offseason environment.

Despite ostensibly being in a mini-rebuild over Zaidi’s two seasons, the team has been decently competitive.  The 2020 Giants fell just one game shy of reaching the postseason.  Provided that the lineup keeps hitting as it did last season, it isn’t out of the question to think that the Giants are a pitcher or two away from making some noise in October in 2021.  The offseason possibilities are just about endless for Zaidi, Harris and company….depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll in this particular winter.  Arguments can be made for going big or going small.  The likeliest course could lie in the middle — taking legitimate steps toward emerging as a contender without quickly bogging themselves down with another slate of untenable long-term contracts.

Quick Hits: M. Kelly, Angels, Royals, Shoemaker, Crochet

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D-backs righty Merrill Kelly is on the mend after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery and tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that to this point, the rehab process has been “way easier than I could have ever imagined.” Kelly expects to begin a throwing program later this month and struck a generally upbeat chord when discussing his future and his recovery process.

Thoracic outlet surgery has been a dagger to many careers in recent years, as the track record of successful returns from TOS is considerably smaller than with other major procedures like Tommy John surgery. That said, there have been some notable success stories, including Chris Young and Jaime Garcia. Tyson Ross had a nice 2018 campaign after 2016 TOS, and Royals righty Kyle Zimmer, who also had TOS surgery a few years ago, posted what looked like a breakout campaign in 2020.

The D-backs picked up a $4.25MM club option on Kelly for the 2021 season and hold a $5.25MM option on him for the 2022 campaign. Since coming over from the KBO following the 2018 season, Kelly has a 4.15 ERA with 7.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 in 214 2/3 innings (37 starts).

A few more notes from around the league…

  • The Angels’ search for a general manager is down “to no more than three candidates,” though the names aren’t known, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. That’s a significant drop-off for a team that has reportedly considered 14 candidates to replace the fired Billy Eppler. The Angels figure to complete a new round of interviews by the end of next week and should have a GM by Thanksgiving, according to Morosi.
  • More from Morosi, who reports (on Twitter) that the Royals have shown interest in free-agent righty Matt Shoemaker. They join the previously reported Red Sox in that regard. Injuries have limited Shoemaker during his Angels/Blue Jays career, which began in 2013, but he has been pretty effective when healthy enough to pitch. Shoemaker owns a 3.86 ERA/4.03 FIP with 8.07 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 602 1/3 innings.
  • Left-hander Garrett Crochet gave the White Sox a scare when he was pulled from a postseason game following a velocity dip and subsequently diagnosed with a flexor strain. However, the 2020 first-rounder tells MLB.com’s Scott Merkin that he’s now pain-free after some down time and, after a recent wave of tests, is set up to commence an offseason throwing program at his new home in Arizona. The organization hasn’t yet set a role for the flamethrower, but Crochet adds that he’s comfortable working as a starter or reliever and is merely focused on gaining more pro experience in 2021. The 21-year-old Crochet skyrocketed from the University of Tennessee to the Majors in a span of a couple months, holding opponents scoreless through 6 2/3 innings — postseason and regular season combined — and whiffing 10 of the 24 batters he faced.

Tony La Russa Charged With DUI Stemming From February Arrest

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9:35pm: A White Sox official told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that La Russa will neither lose his job nor face any discipline from the team.

8:28pm: Newly named White Sox manager Tony La Russa was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence in the Phoenix area last February, Jeff Passan and Paula Lavigne of ESPN.com report. La Russa allegedly crashed into a curb and had a “light odor of alcoholic beverage,” according to the peace officer who responded to the call. He was “argumentative” when taken into custody, per the officer.

Maricopa County in Arizona officially filed DUI charges against La Russa on Oct. 28, one day before the White Sox hired him as their new manager. The White Sox knew about the arrest at the time, club spokesman Scott Reifert said (via Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic). He could face up to 10 days in jail if convicted.

This is the second DUI for La Russa, who was arrested in 2007 when he was the Cardinals’ skipper. He led the Cardinals for five more seasons after that and ended his tenure with a World Series championship in 2011. La Russa went into temporary retirement after that, though he then worked in multiple front offices prior to taking the Chicago job.

This is certainly not the start to the La Russa tenure that the White Sox had in mind when they rehired the Hall of Famer (he previously managed the team from 1979-86). Whether Major League Baseball will discipline him in any way is unknown.

Charlie Morton Drawing Early Interest

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NOV. 9: There are “at least eight to 10 teams” interested in Morton, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The Rays probably won’t offer him more than $10MM, Feinsand hears.

NOV. 6: Charlie Morton immediately became one of the most talented pitchers available in free agency when the Rays declined his $15MM club option. Unsurprisingly, the 36-year-old (37 next week) is drawing strong interest early on, reports Robert Murray of Fansided.

During his last trip through free agency, Morton prioritized geographic fit when signing with Tampa Bay. That’ll probably be the case again this offseason, with teams located near his Florida home gaining a distinct advantage. To that end, a reunion with the Rays for less than the $15MM option price still seems in play. During the season, Morton alluded to the possibility of retirement as well, but there’ll seemingly be plenty of opportunity for him should he want to continue playing. The MLBTR staff projects Morton for a one-year, $8MM deal this winter with the Mets as a potential landing spot.

Morton didn’t match his Cy Young finalist 2019 performance this past season, pitching to a 4.74 ERA over nine regular season starts. His peripherals were quite strong, though, and Morton still averaged around 94 MPH on his fastball. There’s plenty of reason to believe he’d upgrade basically any rotation around the league.

Padres, Indians Complete Mike Clevinger Trade

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The Indians and Padres have completed their massive Aug. 31 trade in which Cleveland sent right-hander Mike Clevinger to San Diego. Per announcements from both teams, the Padres have acquired right-hander Matt Waldron.

Waldron, who turned 24 in September, joined the Indians when they chose him in the 18th round of the 2019 draft. He made a good impression during his first minor league season, in which he amassed 45 2/3 innings of 2.96 ERA pitching with 11.2 K/9 against a measly 0.8 BB/9 between the rookie and Low-A levels. Of course, Waldron wasn’t able to build on those numbers this year because the pandemic wiped out the minor league season.

However Waldron pans out, the Padres probably don’t regret making the deal. Even though he missed time with injuries after the team picked him up, Clevinger helped the Friars to the playoffs with 19 innings of six-run ball in September. Clevinger has two more years of affordable control left, so he’ll remain a key cog for the Padres going forward.

The Indians, meanwhile, saw three of the six players they acquired for Clevinger and outfielder Greg Allen don their uniform in 2020. Righty Cal Quantrill was highly effective over a small sample of work; outfielder/first baseman Josh Naylor went on a tear during their two-game playoff loss to the Yankees after a subpar regular campaign; and catcher Austin Hedges’ struggles at the plate continued.

Devin Williams, Kyle Lewis Win Rookie Of The Year Awards

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Brewers right-handed reliever Devin Williams and Mariners center fielder Kyle Lewis have won the 2020 Jackie Robinson National League and American League Rookie of the Year awards, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced Monday.

Williams was up against Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm and Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth, who tied for second place in the balloting. This is not the first postseason award for the 26-year-old Williams, who already took home NL Reliever of the Year honors.

A second-round pick in 2013, Williams has turned into a gem for the Brewers since debuting in the bigs a year ago. He put up a brilliant .33 ERA/.86 FIP combination with 17.67 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 61.1 percent groundball rate over 27 innings in 2020. Among qualified relievers, the hard-throwing Williams ranked first in ERA, FIP, K/9 and fWAR (1.4). He’s the first pitcher to ever win ROY without making a start or registering a save.

Lewis, now 25, became a Mariner when they selected him 11th overall in 2016. Injury issues slowed Lewis for a bit after that, but he has done nothing but hit since Seattle first called him up in 2019. This past season, Lewis slashed .262/.364/.437 (126 wRC+) with 11 home runs, five stolen bases and 1.7 fWAR over 242 plate appearances. That was enough for Lewis, who won unanimously, to finish ahead of White Sox center fielder Luis Robert and Astros righty Cristian Javier for AL ROY honors.

Blue Jays Interested In George Springer, Jackie Bradley Jr.

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Fresh off their first playoff season since 2016, the up-and-coming Blue Jays may be in position for an aggressive winter. With that in mind, they’re already showing interest in a couple of the game’s premier free-agent outfielders. The Astros’ George Springer and longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. are on the Blue Jays’ radar, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (h/t: Tim Kelly of WEEI.com).

[RELATED: Blue Jays Offseason Outlook]

Either Springer or Bradley could take over in center for Toronto, which relied on Randal Grichuk in 2020. Grichuk had a nice offensive season, hitting .273/.312/.481 (112 wRC+) with 12 home runs in 231 plate appearances. However, Grichuk had difficulty in the outfield, where he managed minus-eight Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-three Ultimate Zone Rating. With Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the corners, Toronto could either try to trade Grichuk, who’s due $29MM through 2023, or move him around the outfield/DH if it signs either Springer or Bradley.

Of Springer and Bradley, the former will command the far richer contract. MLBTR predicts a five-year, $125MM contract for Springer, who has blended high-end offense with very good defense throughout his career. There’s a case that the 31-year-old Springer is the No. 1 position player on the open market (it’s him or catcher J.T. Realmuto). With the Astros having given Springer an $18.9MM qualifying offer, which he’s sure to reject, the Blue Jays would have to surrender draft compensation to add him.

Bradley isn’t on Springer’s level, but JBJ has been a valuable player during his career, in which he has combined fantastic defense with passable offense. This past season, although abbreviated, was one of the 30-year-old’s best at the plate. He wound up with a strong line of .283/.364/.450 (119 wRC+), seven homers and five steals across 217 PA. MLBTR expects Bradley to land a two-year, $16MM contract before the 2021 campaign, but the Jays or another team will have to beat out the likes of the Red Sox and Astros, who have shown interest early this offseason.

Rockies Sign Dereck Rodriguez To Minor League Deal

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The Rockies have signed right-hander Dereck Rodriguez to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league spring training, according to his agent, Gavin Kahn of EnterSports Management.

This deal means Rodriguez will return to the National League West, where he spent most of the prior three seasons with the Giants organization. The Giants designated Rodriguez for assignment in August, and the Tigers claimed him, but he didn’t throw a pitch for Detroit.

Rodriguez, the son of legendary catcher Ivan Rodriguez, entered the pro ranks as a sixth-round pick of the Twins in 2011 but didn’t crack the majors until 2018 with the Giants. He came out of nowhere that year to perform like one of the league’s best rookies, throwing 118 1/3 innings of 2.81 ERA/3.74 FIP ball with 6.77 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9.

Considering the results Rodriguez posted in his first season, the Giants probably thought they had a long-term piece for their rotation. But the 28-year-old Rodriguez wasn’t able to follow that up from 2019-20. Including just four innings in ’20, Rodriguez logged an ugly 5.94 ERA/5.89 FIP and 6.38 K/9 against 3.41 BB/9 in 103 frames during the previous two years. For Colorado, though, there isn’t any real harm in taking a chance on Rodriguez and hoping he returns to rookie form.

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