Details On The Orioles’ Signing Of Cesar Prieto
While most members of the 2021-22 international signing class are teenagers who are years away from the major leagues, 22-year-old infielder Cesar Prieto could potentially help the Orioles as early as this season. It makes Prieto a particularly intriguing player to watch from this signing period, as noted in separate pieces by The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko.
Prieto defected to the United States from Cuba last May, and MLB declared him eligible to sign only in November. This left Prieto in a bit of a tough spot heading into the January 15 signing period, as since most teams had already committed most of the money in their bonus pools, the $650K Prieto received from the Orioles counts as something of a bargain for a player with his experience and track record.
Since the money was relatively tight across the board, however, the O’s tried to stand out from the field in other ways. Orioles senior director of international scouting Koby Perez told media that he and GM Mike Elias personally visited Prieto to pitch him on joining Baltimore’s organization.
“He decided on us. There was other suitors, and we’re excited that he wants to take this journey with us,” Perez said. “Sometimes, you’ve got to wait for the late bloomer, or sometimes these guys from Cuba come out unexpectedly, and you want to be prepared to be able to get them. It played right into our hands in this situation.”
Given the lack of established infielders on the rebuilding Orioles, it also isn’t surprising that Prieto saw Baltimore as a possible quicker route to the majors. Perez said Prieto will start next season in the “mid to upper levels” of the farm system, with the O’s eyeing him as mostly as a second baseman but flexible enough to handle third base or shortstop in a pinch.
While the Orioles don’t want to harm Prieto’s development by promoting him too soon, it isn’t out of the question that he could make his MLB debut in 2022, considering his age and past pro experience. If an early call-up would only come if Prieto adjusts quickly and dominates minor league pitching, his time in the Cuban National Series (Cuba’s top league) is evidence that Prieto can indeed be a big force at the plate.
Over his last two CNS seasons, Prieto has recorded 68 walks against only 34 strikeouts, while batting .379/.452/.533 in 690 plate appearances. Prieto doesn’t offer much power (11 home runs in those two seasons), yet he makes up for that lack of pop with tons of contact and a keen batting eye. According to Perez, some O’s scouts used Nick Madrigal as a comp for Prieto’s skillset.
Prieto’s ability to handle multiple positions could make him something of a utilityman in the majors, depending on how the Orioles’ future infield picture eventually shakes out. On the current MLB roster, Rougned Odor is a veteran stopgap set for regular second base duty, Ramon Urias is already 27 but has looked good in his first two Major League seasons, and Kelvin Gutierrez has yet to show much at the big league level. Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg are the Orioles’ two top infield prospects, and Prieto being lined up as a second baseman reflects how the O’s seem to be eyeing Henderson and Westburg as the future left side of their infield (with the specific positions yet to be determined).
Who Will Sign Kris Bryant?
Kris Bryant had a rough showing in 2020, with injuries limiting him to 34 games and batting line of .206/.293/.351 for a wRC+ of 75. However, that is the clear outlier on his resume, as his six other seasons have seen him put up a wRC+ of at least 123. Overall, in 884 games, his line is .278/.353/.481, 134 wRC+.
Bryant has been primarily a third baseman in his career, but has diversified his defensive portfolio in recent seasons. In 2021, he still played 55 games at third, but also 48 games in left field, 39 in right, 19 in center, 12 at first base and one at shortstop. With that defensive versatility, it’s possible to fit him into just about any team’s lineup puzzle.
However, some teams won’t be serious contenders for Bryant’s services for financial reasons. MLBTR predicted Bryant to get a contract of $160MM over six years. Some teams have never given a free agent a contract close to that in franchise history, such as the Athletics, Guardians, Pirates and Royals. The Rays made an exception for Wander Franco but don’t seem likely to give out another huge deal this year, even though they considered trading for him last year. The Orioles and Diamondbacks don’t seem likely to throw that kind of money around given the state of their current rosters. The Reds considered acquiring Bryant at last year’s deadline but now seem like they want to subtract payroll rather than adding. Let’s take a look at some of the other options.
Teams With Known Interest
- Mariners — The Mariners tried to trade for Bryant last year and have been connected to him in free agency. With Kyle Seager reaching free agency and eventually retiring, they have a vacancy at third base for the first time in years. Abraham Toro would be the favorite for now, but he could also platoon at second with Adam Frazier or serve a utility role. They also have an uncertain outfield mix, with a great many talented youngsters on hand, though they all still come with varying degrees of uncertainty. After a 90-win season, they’ve been aggressive in trying to load up for 2022, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier to the squad.
- Rockies — The Rockies have been fairly quiet so far this offseason, letting Jon Gray go to the Rangers and seemingly content to let Trevor Story eventually depart as well. However, one move they’ve considered is a pursuit of Bryant. If they were to put Bryant at third, Ryan McMahon could theoretically slide to second base with Brendan Rodgers playing shortstop. If they want Bryant in the outfield, they have lots of room there, with none of Charlie Blackmon, Sam Hilliard, Connor Joe or Raimel Tapia being a real obstacle. The addition of the DH in the NL would make the fit even easier.
- Mets — The Mets had discussions about acquiring Bryant at the deadline last year and have been connected to him in free agency. After spending big on Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar, it’s possible the Mets are done with throwing huge checks around. Although now that they’ve pushed their 2022 payroll up to $263MM, it’s unclear if they have any limitations at all, meaning nothing can be ruled out completely.
- Angels — The Angels were listed among Bryant’s suitors before the lockout. With Anthony Rendon pencilled into third base, Bryant would likely need to play the outfield as long as Rendon is healthy and in the lineup. Mike Trout would take another outfield slot, with Brandon Marsh, Jo Adell and Justin Upton on hand as options as well. The Angels have serious questions about their middle infield, however, meaning they should have higher priorities than Bryant.
- Padres — Similar to the Angels, the Padres were connected to Bryant before the lockout, despite having an incumbent third baseman in Manny Machado. He could certainly help in the outfield, however, as he’d be a clear upgrade to their current options of Trent Grisham, Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar. The question will be how much money they have to spend, as they ran a franchise record payroll of $174MM in 2021 and are already set to start 2022 just under $200MM.
- Phillies — The Phillies were also rumored to be interested in Bryant before the lockout, which makes sense given their needs. The club has some big question marks in the outfield, outside of Bryce Harper. Bryant could also act as an insurance policy if third baseman Alec Bohm continues to struggle after a disappointing 2021 season.
- Astros — The Astros reportedly checked in Bryant before the deadline, though it’s a bit hard to see the fit on paper. Alex Bregman is slotted in at third, with the club having an outfield/DH rotation of Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Siri, Chas McCormick and Jake Myers. Shortstop is their most obvious area of need, making someone like Trevor Story a better theoretical fit.
- Giants — Bryant would be a logical fit with the Giants, given that they traded for him in 2021. However, they are apparently unlikely to consider nine-figure contracts this offseason, which would seem to rule out a reunion.
Speculative Fits
- Blue Jays — The Blue Jays could certainly use an infield upgrade to make up for the loss of Marcus Semien. They reportedly made a run at Corey Seager before both he and Semien ended up with the Rangers. They apparently still have spending to do after the lockout, even after adding Kevin Gausman and Yimi Garcia. If Bryant were to take over at third base, Cavan Biggio could return to his natural position of second base, which Semien nudged him off of. They’ve also been connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they’re open to adding in the outfield as well.
- Dodgers — The Dodgers re-signed Chris Taylor before the lockout to be their super-utility option and seemingly have bigger needs in the rotation. But given how much they love adding depth, they can’t be completely discounted. 2022 is also potentially the team’s final year with AJ Pollock and Justin Turner. (Pollock has a 2023 player option, while there is a club/vesting option for Turner.) Adding Bryant now would be a way for the Dodgers to prepare for the departure of either.
- Rangers — The Rangers have already spent huge amounts of money to upgrade their infield, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. With Josh Jung on the way to take over the third base, there’s little room for Bryant on the infield. However, the current outfield of Adolis Garcia, Kole Calhoun, Willie Calhoun and Nick Solak could certainly accommodate him. They’ve been connected to Seiya Suzuki recently, suggesting they are considering a significant outfield addition of some sort.
- Red Sox — Boston subtracted a big right-handed bat when they traded Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers. Since then, they have been connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they’re looking to replace Renfroe’s bat through free agency. With Bryant in one outfield corner and Alex Verdugo in another, they could have Jarren Duran and Jackie Bradley Jr. competing for the center field job.
- Yankees — The Yanks have been a sleeping giant so far in this offseason, seemingly pushing major moves until after they could get a look at the new CBA. DJ LeMahieu is the best fit for third base duties at the moment, though he could also defer to Bryant and move over to first base, especially if the club pulls the trigger on a Luke Voit trade. Like the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the Yankees were also connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they could also find a way to work Bryant into the outfield mix, perhaps in combination with a Joey Gallo trade.
Long Shots
- Braves — The staring contest between Freddie Freeman and the Braves was not settled before the lockout. If they can’t work out a deal, Atlanta could always pivot to Bryant to try and make up for the outfield losing Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson. But with Freeman and Bryant likely looking at similar contracts, it seems much more likely they spend that money on the guy who’s been the face of the franchise and just helped them win the World Series.
- Brewers — Luis Urias had a nice breakout season in 2021 and seems like the favorite for Milwaukee’s third base job, but he can also play second and shortstop, making him a good candidate for a super-utility role. If the NL adds the DH, it would be even easier for him and Bryant to share playing time. However, the Brewers are currently set to run a payroll of $121MM this year, just shy of their franchise record, which was $123 in 2019. Adding the money it would take to sign Bryant doesn’t seem likely.
- Cardinals — The Cards already have an excellent third baseman in Nolan Arenado, as well as a solid outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar. After the lockout, they’re reportedly going to be focused on upgrading in the bullpen, though the addition of the DH to the NL could make them more interested in another bat.
- Cubs — Bringing Bryant back to Wrigley would be a lot of fun, but doesn’t seem likely. The club seems to be eschewing lengthy commitments for the short-term. They did make the surprising add of Marcus Stroman, though his deal is only for a maximum of three years and could be even less if he opts out.
- Marlins — The Marlins are looking for outfield help but it’s hard to see them putting enough cash on the barrel for Bryant. The $53MM guarantee given to Avisail Garcia was the largest of the Bruce Sherman/Derek Jeter era. A few days later, they broke that record with Sandy Alcantara‘s $56MM extension. With Bryant likely to get more than both of those combined, it’s hard to see the Marlins winning the bidding.
- Nationals — All signs points to the Nats taking a step back in 2022 and giving playing time to younger, cheaper players. After last year’s fire sale, they have lots of payroll space and could theoretically use it on a big signing like Bryant, though it seems like they’ll be holding their cash for at least a year.
- Tigers — The Tigers have been aggressive so far but may have already made their big moves with Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. Another huge contract would be a surprise, though a Bryant-Baez reunion would certainly be a fun one.
- Twins — The Twins have to do something if they want to bounce back from a nightmare season and compete again in 2022. But they already have a strong lineup and have heavy lifting to do in the rotation.
- White Sox — The White Sox have their biggest need at second base, making Bryant an imperfect fit. They also ran a franchise record payroll of $129MM in 2021 and are currently slated to demolish that with a projected Opening Day payroll of $180MM for 2022. Adding Bryant into the mix would be a surprise.
Which landing spot makes the most sense to you? Which jersey do you think Bryant will be wearing in 2022?
Where Will Kris Bryant Sign?
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Mariners 23% (3,142)
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Phillies 12% (1,596)
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Mets 12% (1,593)
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Giants 8% (1,120)
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Cubs 6% (826)
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Blue Jays 6% (775)
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Dodgers 3% (427)
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Red Sox 3% (424)
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White Sox 3% (388)
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Yankees 3% (377)
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Padres 3% (377)
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Angels 2% (268)
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Tigers 2% (256)
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Brewers 1% (203)
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Rockies 1% (202)
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Marlins 1% (197)
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Nationals 1% (182)
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Astros 1% (168)
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Braves 1% (167)
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Rangers 1% (140)
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Guardians 1% (131)
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Cardinals 1% (129)
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Reds 1% (123)
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Orioles 1% (120)
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Twins 1% (102)
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Pirates 1% (102)
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Royals 1% (82)
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A's 1% (79)
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Rays 1% (70)
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D-Backs 0% (63)
Total votes: 13,829
(poll link for app users)
Who’s Blocking Spencer Torkelson?
In 2019, the Detroit Tigers finished the season with a record of 47-114, easily the worst in the league that year. The silver lining in a season that bad is receiving the first overall selection in the next year’s draft. The Tigers used the first overall pick in the 2020 draft on Spencer Torkelson, a first baseman out of Arizona State University. (At the time, the club announced him as a third baseman, despite him not playing that position in college.)
Torkelson wasn’t able to play any organized ball for the Tigers that year, as the pandemic wiped out all of the minor league seasons, but 2021 was a rocketship ride up the minor league ladder. He started the year in High-A, playing 31 games and mashing at a rate of .312/.440/.569, wRC+ of 171. A promotion to a higher quality of competition in Double-A dampened his production, but only slightly. In 50 games there, he hit .263/.373/.560, for a wRC+ of 148. He was promoted yet again and got into 40 Triple-A games. Although the higher quality of pitching led to a decreased batting average, he still hit for power and drew walks, slashing .238/.350/.531, 129 wRC+. After that, he went to the Arizona Fall League but was sidelined with an ankle injury after just seven games. He is expected to be fully recovered for spring training. He is now considered the #4 prospect in all of baseball by all three of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs.
After that tremendous showing at all levels, he seems a virtual lock to join the big leagues in 2022, the only questions will be about the date and which position he plays. In college, Torkelson primarily played first base, with a bit of outfield work sprinkled in. But when the Tigers drafted him, they announced him as a third baseman. In 2021, he played first and third somewhat evenly to start the year, with first base taking over as the season wore on. At High-A, he got into 15 games at first and 16 at third, with his Double-A stint featuring 23 at first and 27 at third. But in Triple-A, he played first base in 37 games, none at the hot corner. However, he did get into a couple of games at third base in the Arizona Fall League before the injury.
First base would seem to be the best path to playing time for Torkelson, both because of his greater experience at the position and because of the current makeup of the Tigers’ roster. Jeimer Candelario seems to have locked himself in as the third baseman after a strong pair of seasons with the bat. In the shortened 2020 season, he hit .297/.369/.503 for a wRC+ of 138 over 52 games. Although he played more first base than third that year, he moved across the diamond in 2021, playing 142 games at third and not appearing at first at all. Statcast considered him to be a roughly league-average defender, as he finished the year at -1 Outs Above Average. He also had another good year at the plate, hitting .271/.351/.443, 119 wRC+.
The situation at first base, however, can fit Torkelson into the picture much more easily. The Tigers gave most of the first base playing time to Jonathan Schoop in 2021, as he appeared in 114 games there. But that was Schoop’s first showing at the position, as he had largely been a second baseman prior to that. He even played 38 games at the keystone last year. If Torkelson were to take over at first base, Schoop could slide back to his traditional position at second. That would create a bit of a crowd in the middle infield for the Tigers, as they signed Javier Baez to take over the shortstop position. If Schoop was getting regular playing time at second, there would be little room for younger players like Harold Castro, Willi Castro, Isaac Paredes and Zack Short. None of those players have fully cemented themselves as everyday regulars just yet, but for a Tigers team that is looking to emerge from a lengthy rebuild, it should still be a priority to give chances for unproven players to blossom and take a step forward.
One way to help with this crowding would be to rotate these players through the designated hitter slot, giving them a bit of a rest while still getting reps in the batter’s box. However, that raises the question of how many DH at-bats will be going to Miguel Cabrera. While there’s no questioning he’s one of the greatest hitters of his generation, he hasn’t been an above-average hitter over a full season since 2016. His wRC+ dropped to 92 in 2017, then bounced back to 127 in 2018, though injuries cut his season short after just 38 games. In 2019, he dropped just below the league average of 100 again, coming in at 97. He snuck over the line in 2020 with a mark of 103, though that was the pandemic-shortened campaign. In 2021, he dropped down to 92 again.
Up until now, letting the veteran continue to play out his contract and hit career milestones hasn’t been an issue as the team hasn’t been earnestly trying to compete for some time. But push will likely come to shove at some point, as the club has already spent a lot of money this offseason in order to wipe their hands of this lengthy rebuild. Even if they don’t become AL Central favorites right out of the gate in 2022, Cabrera still has two guaranteed years remaining on his contract and will turn 39 in April. After getting 526 plate appearances in 130 games in 2021, how much rope will he get going forward? Is he destined to be squeezed out by younger players and eventually let loose in a similar manner to what happened to Albert Pujols last year? Or at least nudged into the type of bench role that Pujols settled into with the Dodgers? Cabrera is sitting on 2,987 hits and will surely be given the chance to cross the monumental 3,000 barrier, but at a certain point, the team’s desire to compete will clash with their desire for Cabrera to get the proper legacy treatment.
Regardless of how it plays out, the future seems bright for the Tigers. They have a roster with heaps of young talent that showed signs of promise in 2021. After a miserable 8-19 start in April, they went 69-66 the rest of the way. Since then, they’ve added Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Tucker Barnhart to try and take them to the next level. With prospects like Torkelson, Riley Greene and Dillon Dingler on the way to help as well, they seem poised to be a fun and competitive team for years to come.
Aníbal Sánchez Considering Return To MLB In 2022
Right-hander Aníbal Sánchez was a free agent last year after the Nationals declined his option for the 2021 season. He held multiple showcases for interested clubs, even into late April. However, he never found a deal to his liking and ended up deciding to sit out the season. But that doesn’t mean he’s retired, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Sanchez is considering a return in 2022.
A return to form for Sánchez would be quite a feat for the hurler who turns 38 in February, though he’s been counted out before. Signed by the Tigers to a five-year deal prior to the 2013 campaign, Sánchez was excellent in the first year of the deal, throwing 182 innings with an ERA of 2.57. However, his ERA continued to grow in each year of the contract, with marks of 3.43, 4.99, 5.87 and 6.41 over 2014-2017.
After that drop in effectiveness, he had to settle for a minor league deal with Atlanta prior to the 2018 season. That proved to be a tremendous bounceback campaign for Sánchez, who was 34 years old at the time. He ended up throwing 136 2/3 innings for Atlanta with an ERA of 2.83, and parlayed that into a two-year, $19MM deal with the Nationals. He had another good year in 2019, throwing 166 innings with an ERA of 3.85, as well as 18 postseason innings with an ERA of 2.50, helping the Nats win the World Series that year.
Unfortunately for Sánchez, 2020 was a step back, as his ERA shot up to 6.62 over 53 innings in the shortened season. But after not pitching in 2021, Speier reports that Sánchez “felt rejuvenated after the time off, throwing with what appears to be more velocity than in recent years.” The next step for Sanchez is to “throw in front of a scout with a radar gun to decide whether to attempt another shot at the big leagues.”
Despite the downtime and the poor season in 2020, Sánchez could garner interest around the league due to the nature of the starting pitching market. There are a couple of top-tier free agents remaining in Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, but a big drop-off after that, as recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco. With many teams still looking to add starting pitching for 2022, it’s certainly possible that one of them is willing to roll the dice on a veteran with such a long track record of success in the majors. Sánchez has thrown 1,948 1/3 innings over 15 seasons so far, with an ERA of 4.05, strikeout rate of 20.8% and walk rate of 7.9%.
Trade Candidate: Max Kepler
Despite a thoroughly disappointing 73-89 season in 2021, Twins owner Jim Pohlad made things clear back in July — the Twins were planning to reload for 2022, not rebuild. It wasn’t at all a far-fetched expectation, given how Minnesota won the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020, and still had several members of the big-hitting “Bomba Squad” core in place.
In regards to Max Kepler, however, the question heading into next season is whether or not the Twins truly consider him part of that core. If the answer is no, Kepler stands out as an intriguing trade chip.
An international signing out of Germany in 2009, the Berlin-born Kepler began his pro career at age 17 and slowly made his way up the Twins’ organizational ladder, earning top-60 prospect attention heading into the 2016 season. That was Kepler’s first year as a big league regular, and he quickly installed himself as Minnesota’s everyday right fielder. Through three seasons of slightly below-average offense but 56 home runs and solid fielding, the Twins felt comfortable enough to lock Kepler up on a five-year, $35MM extension that also carries a $10MM club option for 2024 (with a $1MM buyout).
That extension started to look like a great move when Kepler delivered 36 homers and a .252/.336/.519 slash line over 596 plate appearances in 2019, earning himself some down-ballot MVP attention for his role in the Twins’ division-winning campaign. Since that apparent breakout year, however, Kepler’s production has largely fallen back to his 2016-18 form, with some troubling secondary numbers that don’t hint that a turn-around.
Just looking at Kepler’s 2021 Statcast profile, you might wonder…what troubling numbers? After all, with all those above-average metrics and a .347 xwOBA that was well beyond his .309 wOBA, a case could be made that Kepler was one of last season’s more unlucky players. However, as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noted last August, Kepler hits a lot of pop-ups, a lot of grounders, and is an extreme pull hitter. As a result, the last two seasons have seen opposing defenses play shifts against Kepler well over 90% of the time, thus keeping his bat largely in check and essentially neutralizing whatever gains he made in 2019.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Kepler has hit .216/.310/.420 with 28 homers over 686 PA, which translates to just about league-average offensive production (99 wRC+, 101 OPS+). He did miss a little over a month of last season due to a hamstring strain and a case of COVID-19, so it is possible that he could rebound in 2022 with better health and more time to make adjustments against the shift.
As he enters his age-29 season, Kepler might also just be who he is at the plate, with only one true standout season out of his six full years in the majors. This doesn’t mean he isn’t a useful player, of course, considering that Kepler offers solid speed and baserunning, some power, and a strong glove. Since the start of the 2016 season, Kepler has +36 Defensive Runs Saved, a +7.2 UZR/150, and +39 Outs Above Average as a right fielder.
Even subtracting his 4.5 fWAR season from 2019 from the mix, Kepler has still been worth 8.2 fWAR over his other five seasons. That’s not bad return on a relatively modest price tag, and even though Kepler will get more expensive in the latter years of his extension, he is owed only $16.25MM — $6.75MM in 2022 and $8.5MM in 2023, plus the potential $1MM buyout of the club option for 2024. With Buxton a constant injury risk, Kepler at least offers some stability within a Minnesota outfield that will feature two promising but unproven young players in top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in 2022.
Those are the solid arguments for keeping Kepler, and since the Twins do plan to contend next year, trading a cost-controlled veteran member of the lineup would seem like a bit of a surprise move on paper. On the other hand, dealing Kepler for the right return could be the kind of creative pivot the Twins need to fix some of their other roster holes.
Many of the needs that existed for the Twins at the start of the offseason are still on the to-do list, as apart from extending Buxton and signing Dylan Bundy, it was a pretty quiet winter in the Twin Cities even before the lockout shut everything down. With Minnesota looking to keep Jorge Polanco at second base, shortstop is still a need, and the Twins will need a lot more than just Bundy to help support a very inexperienced rotation.
Kepler wouldn’t be the first player to overhaul his swing and offensive approach later in his career, so if he can figure out a way to elevate the ball more often and beat the shift, he’ll suddenly be much more of a threat at the plate. Given how regulating or even banning defensive shifts has been mentioned as a potential rule change by the league, the Twins might want to hang onto Kepler just in case there is some new edict announced to generate more action in the field of play.
As noted earlier, however, it is possible we’ve already seen Kepler’s offensive peak. Moving him now might be an ideal way for the Twins to still capitalize on his value before any real decline begins. If another team thinks they can fix Kepler, Minnesota might be willing to let them take him off their hands at the right price.
If being a cost-controlled veteran with a very good glove and at least an okay bat are reasons the Twins may want to keep Kepler, those same reasons would also make him attractive to other teams looking for outfield help. The Yankees were one team known to be checking in on Kepler prior to the trade deadline, and other teams like the Padres, Guardians, White Sox, Phillies (would Bryce Harper embrace a move to left field?), Reds, Athletics, Red Sox, or Braves all make varying degrees of sense as a trade partner.
Minnesota might not been keen on moving Kepler within the AL Central, and teams like the Reds or A’s are more hypothetical fits since both teams have been mostly focused on cutting payroll this offseason. As noted, though, Kepler isn’t very pricey, and neither the Reds or A’s have given up hope for contending in 2022 even while trying to trim the budget. Since both Cincinnati and Oakland have the available pitching that the Twins would covet, some kind of a multi-player package might work — Kepler to the other team, a starting pitcher and perhaps another contract coming to Minnesota, and then some prospects on either side to even things out.
Taking on salary to accommodate a trade usually isn’t the Twins’ style, though it isn’t yet clear how much money the club might have available this winter. The Twins’ interest in Robbie Ray did hint that they were at least willing to explore some bigger spending, and even hypothetically taking on some money (Shogo Akiyama? Stephen Piscotty?) from the Reds or A’s wouldn’t necessarily represent a huge outlay.
As good of a fit as someone like Kris Bryant might be in Minnesota’s outfield, that kind of big splash could still count as a surprise, so a Kepler replacement is more likely to be an outfielder on a one-year deal at a cheaper overall price than Kepler’s two remaining years. Someone like Tommy Pham or Andrew McCutchen could theoretically match or better Kepler’s 2021 production, and such a right-handed bat would also make for a smoother fit in the Twins outfield, as Kepler, Kirilloff, and Larnach are all left-handed hitters. In terms of in-house righty bats, Brent Rooker is available for platoon duty, and top prospect Austin Martin is on track to make his MLB debut at some point in 2022 if he performs well at Triple-A.
If 2021 was kind of a Murphy’s Law year for the Twins, the team might opt to mostly stand pat with their roster and see how things play out early next season, just in case the situation naturally improves as players stay healthy or bounce back. That said, such a strategy counts as a risk in an improving AL Central, so some boldness might be required to fix the problems the Twins know exist right now. Even if trading Kepler might create another question in an outfield already lacking certainty, if Minnesota doesn’t see him as a building block beyond the end of his contract, a trade might be a wiser way for the Twins to bring more answers to their roster as a whole.
Mets To Hire Glenn Sherlock As Bench Coach
The Mets have chosen Glenn Sherlock as their new bench coach, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). Sherlock was a member of the Pirates coaching staff for the last two seasons, and also has ties to both the Mets and manager Buck Showalter.
The Showalter/Sherlock connection began with the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate in 1989, when Sherlock was playing and Showalter was managing. That was the final season of Sherlock’s seven-year pro career, and he moved on to become a manager and coach in the Yankees’ farm system himself, also working as a catching instructor in intermittent fashion with the big league club from 1992-95 (when Showalter was New York’s manager).
This led to Showalter hiring Sherlock for the inaugural Diamondbacks coaching staff in 1998, and while Arizona fired Showalter following the 2000 campaign, Sherlock became a fixture of the D’Backs staff. Sherlock spent 19 years in various coaching capacities with the Diamondbacks before spending three seasons (2017-19) with the Mets as their third base coach, first base coach, and catching instructor.
Sherlock is therefore a familiar face for both Showalter and for the Mets front office, making the 61-year-old a logical choice to serve as Showalter’s chief lieutenant. Interestingly, Sherlock doesn’t fit the model of the “younger, analytics-driven individual” that the Mets were reportedly looking to hire for the position, though the club did seek out several names that did fit that description. Reds planning/outfield coach Jeff Pickler, Padres quality control coach Ryan Flaherty, and Giants pitching coach Andrew Bailey were all on the Mets’ radar, though the Padres and Giants denied permission for interviews, and Pickler removed his name from consideration.
As one might expect following a managerial change, the Mets’ coaching staff will have a fresh look in 2022. Sherlock, hitting coach Eric Chavez, first base coach Wayne Kirby, and third base coach Joey Cora are all new members of Showalter’s staff, and it is possible more hires may still be coming as the club figures out the exact size and composition of its coaching mix.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
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The Impact Of International Signing Day
Thanks to the year-round work of people like Ben Badler over at Baseball America, we have a pretty clear sense already of how the international signing period has kicked off. Although this is technically an 11-month period, many teams will be mostly done with their international signings after today.
Of course, that’s largely because there’s a cap on how much each team can spend. Because teams are limited to their league-allotted international spending pool, we end up with a fairly egalitarian distribution of prospects to the 30 MLB teams. That said, there are still different approaches.
The Nationals, for instance, in typical Nationals fashion, identified a star and did everything in their power to sign him. They’ll end up with one of the smaller classes of international free agents in the league, but they got their guy in Cuban outfielder Cristhian Vaquero. Still, though they spent the bulk of their money on Vaquero, they spread around the remainder, currently with a list of ten new players for their system.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Orioles have continued to spread their money around with large classes of international signees. They have more than 20 new farmhands as of today, headlined by the 18th-ranked prospect of this class (per Baseball America), outfielder Braylin Tavera out of the Dominican Republic.
Of course, volume in this case presupposes foregoing a certain degree of quality. Or at least, it would, if scouting were a linear and objective process (it absolutely is not). The frustrating truth is: What we can’t know about the future of these players far outweighs what we do know.
Still, of the players who sign today, among them are future superstars. For example, let’s go back to 2018, when the Blue Jays signed Orelvis Martinez for $3.5MM, now one of their top prospects who is quickly approaching the Majors. The Dodgers signed catching prospect Diego Cartaya, whose presence made the trade of Keibert Ruiz all the more palatable. Ruiz, of course, was the centerpiece of the deal that brought Max Scherzer to Los Angeles at the trade deadline. Ruiz himself was part of the Dodgers’ international signing class in 2014.
Other future top prospects joined their current clubs on that 2018 signing day as well, players like catcher Francisco Alvarez of the Mets, who signed for $2.7MM, and Marco Luciano, signed by the Giants for $2.6MM.
The most impact doesn’t always come from the top of the class, of course, as Ronald Acuna Jr. continually reminds us. He signed with the Braves for $100K on signing day back in 2014. Juan Soto signed with the Nationals the next year for $1.5MM, a significant, but hardly groundbreaking sum.
The point is a simple one, perhaps an obvious one: today marks an important day for the game of baseball and its future stars, one that will undoubtedly change the sport, even if we can’t see exactly how.
Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers
Simply put: The Tigers are on the rise. They are going to be a popular pick to jump into the field of contenders in 2022 – and for good reason. Though a 77-85 record might not look like a team on the rise, they started the year with an 8-19 month of April and looked downright respectable the rest of the way. Following that disastrous first month, they went 69-66, finishing with their best record since 2016.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH: $72MM through 2023 (includes $8MM buyout on $30MM mutual option for 2024)
- Javier Baez, SS: $140MM through 2027 (with player opt-out after 2023)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, SP: $77MM through 2026
- Tucker Barnhart, C: $7.5MM in 2022
- Jonathan Schoop, INF: $15MM through 2023
- Robbie Grossman, OF: $5MM in 2022
- 2022 commitments: $86MM
- Total long-term commitments: $316.5MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Michael Fulmer – $5.1MM
- Jeimer Candelario – $5.9MM
- Joe Jimenez – $1.8MM
- Jose Cisnero – $1.9MM
- Victor Reyes – $1.3MM
- Spencer Turnbull – $1.8MM
- Dustin Garneau – $1.6MM
- Harold Castro – $1.5MM
Free Agents
- Matthew Boyd, Niko Goodrum, Drew Hutchison, Grayson Greiner, Ian Krol, Derek Holland, Wily Peralta, Jose Urena, Julio Teheran
The Tigers were one of the game’s most active teams in free agency prior to the lockout. With very little long-term money on the books, and a totally clean ledger after 2023, the Tigers had the leeway and the inclination to add premier talent this winter. Though many expected the Tigers to make a play to reunite Carlos Correa and his former manager A.J. Hinch, the Tigers chose to spread their money around instead.
Javier Baez isn’t the talent that Correa is, but he’s still a monster upgrade over Niko Goodrum, who was designated for assignment and released to free agency. Baez will stabilize the infield defense and provide a fairly significant safety blanket for Detroit’s young starting staff. He’s a mixed bag at the plate, but he’s coming off a 116 wRC+ season, and if nothing else, he’s an entertainment machine. Even his glove is a little more erratic than his supporters would like to admit, but the Bengals can content themselves with knowing they had more or less a clean slate financially and a massive hole to fill at short.
Shortstop was their biggest hole to fill coming into the offseason, but GM Al Avila made positive headway in filling out the rest of the roster as well. Tucker Barnhart was losing his starting job in Cincinnati, but that’s largely because of Tyler Stephenson‘s offensive upside. Barnhart will set up camp near the bottom of the batting order, and he’s likely to stay there, but that’s not why the Tigers took on the $7.5MM he’ll be owed in 2022. Detroit’s young starting staff could use a veteran hand to guide their pitch selection and game management, and Barnhart’s reputation suggests he’s exactly the guy to do it.
Baez and Barnhart together ought to help create an ecosystem more conducive to run prevention, thereby either increasing the likelihood for success or hurrying the development for Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal. That was likely Detroit’s number one goal this offseason.
Eduardo Rodriguez is another piece of that new-and-improved ecosystem. He steps in for Matthew Boyd and ought to provide consistency to their young rotation. E-Rod’s 4.74 ERA last season is a tad misleading as a .363 BABIP helped bloat the bottom-line run prevention numbers. ERA indicators were more complimentary: 3.32 FIP, 3.65 SIERA were both career-best numbers.
Beyond veteran savvy and life experience, Rodriguez gives the Tigers an innings-eater like their rotation hasn’t had in recent years. His 157 2/3 innings would have led the Tigers, who only had Mize and Skubal finish anywhere near the 150-inning mark. Boyd was solid in his 15 starts, posting 1.4 fWAR and a 3.89 ERA/4.10 FIP, but the Tigers likely figure that E-Rod gives them a better chance of hitting those marks over a full slate. Besides, winning breeds winners, and bringing in someone like Rodriguez can help transform the clubhouse culture into one that expects W’s.
Rodriguez helps, but if the Tigers are truly going to make the leap, it will likely be because Mike, Skubal, and Manning continue their development. Mize made 30 starts but racked up just 1.3 fWAR, in part because he didn’t show much of a propensity for missing bats. Skubal boasted swing-and-miss stuff, but the southpaw was prone to giving up long balls. If Mize, Manning, and Skubal grow up this season, the Tigers will feel pretty good about their run prevention potential. In a nutshell, that’s the biggest what-if of the Tigers’ 2022 season.
The Rodriguez addition was all the more important because Spencer Turnbull remains out after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Turnbull appeared to be on the verge of a breakout, but now they’re in wait-and-see mode. The same for Barnhart and Jake Rogers behind the plate.
Tyler Alexander lines up as the fifth starter for now, but the Tigers are likely to explore more starting options when the lockout ends. Rodriguez will more than likely end up as their big-ticket signing on the pitching side, but there are still plenty of veteran rotation arms that can raise the floor of Detroit’s unit.
The bullpen is another area where the Tigers will explore additions after the lockout. Michael Fulmer emerged as a weapon, saving 14 games and tossing 69 2/3 innings over 52 appearances (four starts). It’s a reinvention for Fulmer, but one that can greatly help the team. Beyond the saves, he also earned nine holds and proved himself an invaluable multi-inning firearm for manager A.J. Hinch.
Gregory Soto took on the more traditional closer’s role, but Hinch is not afraid to use the power lefty whenever he needs him most. Soto saved 18 games over 62 appearances with a 3.39 ERA/4.14 FIP. Hinch has also relied on Jose Cisnero out of the pen. The 32-year-old made 67 appearances and posted a 3.65 ERA/4.13 FIP over 61 2/3 innings.
Fulmer, Soto, and Cisnero give Avila a solid starting place when it comes to building out his bullpen, but they could use some more firepower. There are other arms in-house but expect the Tigers to put some work in here when the lockout ends. Bullpen arms might be more amenable to joining Detroit after the work that’s been put into the roster already.
Offensively, exciting times are ahead. The Detroit faithful have enjoyed the benchmark stage of Miguel Cabrera‘s Hall of Fame career, even if the 38-year-old no longer slugs with the authority of his youth. He crossed the 500 home run threshold in 2021, and he’ll get to the 3,000 hit mark early in 2020.
Cabrera might be the best hitter of his generation, and in some ways, it’s been a blessing that the Tigers have been able to line up their rebuilding years with Cabrera’s decline, thereby allowing the organization the difficult decision of when to take Cabrera out of the lineup. Cabrera played in 130 games last year and 57 out of the 60 from 2020’s shortened season. I’d be surprised if he hits 130 games again in 2022, however, as the Tigers will likely start to be a little more judicious with his playing time as they make an earnest effort for contention.
It will be a handing-off-of-the-baton type of season for Cabrera and the Tigers, who together are likely to welcome the top two prospects in Detroit’s system up to the Majors in 2022. Spencer Torkelson is the most obvious side-by-side with Cabrera, as the former number one overall pick is a bat-first corner infield prospect who has a decent chance to end up as a designated hitter eventually. For now, he’ll play first base and only occasionally snipe DH at-bats from Cabrera.
Jeimer Candelario is the third piece of the corner infield puzzle, and he fits nicely between Cabrera and Torkelson as an in-his-prime switch-hitter who only recently locked in his spot on the roster. He’s long been the Tigers third baseman, but for years it seems the former Cubs farmhand was just a placeholder.
Then 2020 happend. Candelario blasted off to the tune of a 138 wRC+ in the shortened season, and while he didn’t continue at that rate last season, he remained solidly above average, posting 3.2 fWAR and a 118 wRC+. He’s still subpar as a defensive third baseman, but now he’ll have Baez flanking him at short, which should help. Candelario and Baez actually began their professional careers together in rookie ball with the Cubs, though Baez rose quickly trough the system, while Candelario was eventually shipped to Detroit with Isaac Paredes for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson.
Candelario’s long-term future is unclear, but he’s under team control for 2022 and 2023, so it seems likely he’ll stay at the hot corner for now. If Detroit falls out of the race, the Tigers could explore using Candelario as a trade piece. For now, however, his well-rounded bat is a nice cog in Detroit’s lineup. He may not excel in any one area, but he has average power (.172 ISO), a decent eye (10.4 percent walk rate), and the ability to put the ball in play (21.6 percent strikeout rate) together make up an above-average hitter.
Jonathan Schoop fits a similar mold, but with a more eager approach at the plate. Schoop doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s a legitimate plus against lefties and can hold his own otherwise. Schoop may lose some playing time as Torkelson arrives, but like Candelario, he’s a cog in a rapidly improving machine.
Robbie Grossman: same same. Grossman does everything relatively well, but an elite approach at the plate can make him even more valuable. Grossman keeps the line moving, puts up professional at-bats, and he takes his walks (14.6 percent walk rate).
All in all, the Tigers boast a working-class group of veteran bats that should prop up the baseline and give Torkelson and other young players a little bit of extra runway to find their stride.
The key player may be Riley Greene. If he can stick it in center, that will fill another huge hole in Detroit’s lineup. It’s not easy to find a centerfielder these days, making his development all the more key. Of course, Akil Baddoo may have beat him to the punch. Hinch protected the Rule 5 pick with match-ups in 2021, and it more-or-less worked (108 wRC+). Baddoo’s torching hot start did eventually cool off, but he still finished the year looking promising enough for the Tigers to give him more run in 2022.
Where they might yet add to the offense is with another corner outfielder. Baddoo can play some center along with Victor Reyes, and there are still bats out there that could fit in the middle of Detroit’s lineup. Neither Baddoo nor Reyes needs to be guaranteed a starting spot. Given the contract that they reportedly offered to Carlos Correa, the Tigers still likely have some financial flexibility, should they choose to flex it.
The Tigers have patiently waited out their rebuild, but we know from their history that when the time comes, they are willing to spend. That doesn’t mean that they’re ready to spend it all this offseason, however, so their work could mostly be done. They’ve already made significant additions to the team. They aren’t done, but it’s certainly possible that any bullpen arms, starters, or extra bats they sign will slot in below the players already added, both in a financial and potential impact sense.
Then again, the Tigers have been aggressive. When the crossbar raises and GMs are set loose to sign free agents again, don’t be shocked to see Detroit hit the ground running. Big names have and are coming through the minor league system, but it’s not the deepest farm in the league, so if Detroit wants to make sure they meet expectations and become the cinderella darling of 2022, we might see more free agents changing their address to Motor City.
Notable 2021-22 International Signings
The 2021-22 international signing period is officially underway, and though this signing period is open until Dec. 15, 2022, many of the big names have already signed. Teams have long since lined up deals with newly eligible teenage players, so the news today largely represents confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon professional careers.
Let’s round up some of the most notable signings of the day. Most of these agreements have been known for a while, as both Baseball America’s Ben Badler (signings tracker; scouting links) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter feed; rankings) have listed each club’s expected landing spot and approximate signing bonus on their rankings for months. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Check the above links for further information and other signings. Here are a few key deals reported on Twitter by Sanchez:
- Roderick Arias, SS, Yankees: The Yankees have come to an agreement with MLB.com’s top-ranked international free agent on the market for a signing amount of $4.oMM, reports Sanchez. The Dominican switch-hitter runs well, gets good reviews for his footwork and arm strength at shortstop, and brings a solid hit tool from both sides of the plate.
- Cristhian Vaquero, OF, Nationals: For the second consecutive season, the Nationals appear to have nabbed one of the top prospects on the international board. They have come to a $4.9MM agreement to sign the left-handed Cuban outfielder, the top prospect on Baseball America’s board. The Nats are essentially all-in on Vaquero, who will soak up more than ninety percent of their available pool money.
- Ricardo Cabrera, SS, Reds: MLB.com’s third-ranked international prospect has come to an agreement with the Reds. No signing amount has been listed as of this time.
- William Bergolla Jr., SS, Phillies: Philadelphia has come to a $2.2MM agreement with one of the top prospects on the board. While MLB.com has the Venezuelan fourth on their board, Baseball America is slightly less bullish, ranking him eighth overall in this class. The 17-year-old right-hander is the son of William Bergolla, who was a Reds farmhand who appeared in 17 games with Cincinnati back in 2005.
- Oscar Colas, OF, White Sox: The White Sox reached a $2.7MM agreement with Colas, one of the more intriguing prospects on this year’s board, in part because he’s on the older side for most international prospects. The Cuban outfielder is 23-years-old, but that could make him a quick-rising prospect for Chicago.
Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2MM or more, and we’ll keep this list updated throughout the day as more agreements come to light:
- Rockies, $2.8MM, SS Dyan Jorge
- Mariners, $2.5MM, OF Lazaro Montes
- Braves, $2.5MM, Diego Benitez
- Tigers, $2.2MM, SS Javier Osorio
- Giants, $2.2MM, SS Ryan Reckley
- Blue Jays, $2MM+, C Luis Meza
- Rangers, $2MM, OF Anthony Gutierrez