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East Notes: Thor, Lowe, Bundy, Richard

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The Mets’ struggles have mounted to the point that their general manager acknowledges having “low expectations” for the season’s second half. Despite the organization’s dumpster fire start, their young flamethrower has no hope of going elsewhere. “I love being a Met,” Noah Syndergaard told reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday. “If something were to ever change, it’d be definitely bittersweet just because of New York City itself, the fan base and just the guys in this clubhouse have a special place in my heart.” As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explored yesterday in a ranking of the top 60 trade candidates, the time might not be optimal to move Thor, who comes with two additional years of team control and is currently amidst a career-worst, albeit still more than adequate, season.

As we await the Mets’ next move, let’s check in on some injury notes from the East divisions:

  • Rays infielder Brandon Lowe might not return from the 10-day injured list until the club’s next homestand, which begins Friday against the White Sox, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Lowe, who leads AL rookies with 2.5 fWAR, was placed on the IL July 4 with a right shin contusion, sustained when he fouled a ball off his leg. Lowe’s .276/.339/.523 line isn’t quite sustainable so long as he continues to strike out in a third of his plate appearances, but there’s little question getting his bat back in the lineup will be a boon for a team looking to augment its roster in the coming weeks.
  • While Lowe will take more than the minimum to recover from his injury, Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy hopes to be more fortunate. Bundy was placed on the IL yesterday with right knee tendinitis, but he tells Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter) he’s confident he can return when first eligible on July 23. It’s been more of the same this year for the former fourth overall pick; despite a solid 24% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate, an inability to keep the ball in the yard has Bundy’s ERA above 5.00 for the second consecutive season. Given his performance, he seems unlikely to be much of a trade chip this summer, even if he does return to the field in short order.
  • The Blue Jays announced they’ve placed Clayton Richard on the 10-day injured list with a left lat strain, activating Edwin Jackson from an IL stint of his own in a corresponding move. Richard departed yesterday’s start against the Yankees after just two innings, leaving the bullpen to handle a hefty workload. The IL stint seems to foreclose any chance the Jays can flip Richard before the trade deadline, but he wouldn’t have been in high demand regardless, as he’s managed only a 5.96 ERA with a woeful 11% strikeout rate over ten starts. The 35-year-old is playing out the final months of a two-year/$6MM contract and is likely headed for a minor-league deal this winter.

Luis Severino, Dellin Betances Cleared To Begin Throwing Programs

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Injuries have prevented star Yankees right-handers Luis Severino and Dellin Betances from pitching in 2019, but that could change in the coming weeks. Severino and Betances have been medically cleared to begin throwing programs Monday, per reports from Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News and James Wagner of the New York Times.

The 25-year-old Severino proved himself as one of the game’s top young starters from 2017-18, which led the Yankees to award him a four-year, $40MM extension this past February. The club shut down Severino because of shoulder inflammation in early March, though, and discovered at the beginning of April that he had a Grade 2 lat strain. The expectation then was that Severino would debut in May, which was eventually pushed back to July and then August.

Severino began a throwing program before his latest shutdown, but general manager Brian Cashman revealed he did so before undergoing an MRI. Cashman expressed disappointment in the Yankees for letting Severino start throwing without first going through a more thorough examination. However, now it seems the hard-throwing Severino truly is on the way back.

While Severino was the ace of the Yankees’ staff over the previous two years, he’s far from certain to reprise that role in 2019. Cashman suggested Friday that Severino could max out as a 75-pitch hurler and/or work from the Yankees’ bullpen when he returns in “six or more weeks.” Regardless, Cashman’s sure to continue scouring the trade market for starters leading up to the July 31 deadline.

Like Severino, Betances came into 2019 hoping to build on a recent stretch of outstanding production. Instead, though, the 31-year-old reliever’s season – which happens to be his last under team control – hasn’t gotten off the ground. A bone spur in his shoulder and then a lat injury have prevented Betances from further making a case for a sizable offseason payday. They’ve also robbed the Yankees of their best setup man, though their bullpen has still held its own en route to the AL’s top record (61-33).

Rays Intend To Buy At The Deadline

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With just over two weeks until the trade deadline, the Rays are scouring the market for upgrades, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “What we think of this group and the way they’ve played so far it certainly motivates us to want to help them out however we can,” front office head Chaim Bloom told Topkin. “We want to make sure we do that responsibly, that we’re staying true to our goal of competing sustainably and be able to do this consistently over a number of years. Anything we can do to help them out is something we’re certainly going to look at.”

That the Rays are looking to add comes as little surprise, given the team’s position in the standings. At 54-40, Tampa holds possession of the AL’s top wild card slot, 1.5 games up on Oakland. Following a scorching start to the season, the Rays have fallen off the pace somewhat over the past month, dropping six games behind the Yankees in the AL East. While that deficit isn’t insurmountable with almost half the season remaining, it seems the Rays’ most plausible path to October is via a wild card. Fangraphs’ playoff odds, for instance, give Tampa just an 8.5% chance of claiming the division crown. How far the small-market club is willing to push for, in all likelihood, a one-game playoff, will be interesting to monitor.

The franchise has never been one to set the market, typically hoarding long-term affordable control at the expense of headline-grabbing acquisitions. Given the organization’s historical reluctance to mortgage the future, Topkin cautions against anticipating they make a splash. Nevertheless, as he notes, the time might be right for them to do so.

Tampa Bay’s loaded farm system should force the organization’s hand sooner than later. With myriad prospects nearing Rule V eligibility, the Rays may need to start consolidating high-minors assets. Unlike many 40-man roster crunches, where a team moves a middle reliever or bench bat to clear space, Tampa seems open to dealing high-upside talent. Notably, vaunted middle infielder Vidal Brujan might not be off limits, as Topkin includes him among a list of prospects whom the Rays might consider moving this summer rather than committing a 40-man roster spot to after the season.

To be clear, there’s no indication the Rays are actively shopping Brujan (or any other specific farmhand), but that it seemingly remains under consideration is notable. A 21-year-old switch-hitter, Brujan’s blend of bat control, strike zone feel and athleticism make him one of baseball’s best young talents. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel and Keith Law of ESPN (subscription required) each place Brujan among the game’s 25 best prospects, in fact, with Fangraphs projecting him as a plus hitter and defender at second base who should offer a high-OBP skillset at his peak. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America are a little less bullish, questioning the amount of impact available in Brujan’s 5’9″, 155 pound frame, but the publications universally laud his hit tool and athleticism.

Unsurprisingly, the specifics of any deal remain up in the air. The Rays have previously been tied to bullpen upgrades, right-handed hitters and starting pitching (specifically, the top starter on the market, Matthew Boyd), all of which remain potential areas to upgrade, per Topkin. It’s not clear exactly how things will play out, but it’s nonetheless notable the organization has positioned itself as a buyer, especially in light of recent comments from GM Erik Neander indicating they might take things slower if they fell too far back in the division. With a farm system replete with talent across all levels of the minors and some hint of a willingness to push forward, the possibilities in St. Petersburg are endless.

Phillies Place Tommy Hunter On IL, Recall Edubray Ramos

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The Phillies announced today that right-handed reliever Tommy Hunter has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right forearm strain. Fellow right-hander Edubray Ramos has been recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to take Hunter’s 25-man roster spot.

Forearm strains are always ominous for pitchers, but it seems especially alarming in Hunter’s case. The 33-year-old had only been activated from the IL two weeks ago after sitting out the first three months of the season with the same injury. While there’s no timetable yet for Hunter’s return, if his recovery for the new injury takes anywhere near as long as the road back from his first malady, it could put his season in jeopardy. Hunter told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen (via Twitter) that while he’s optimistic about his ability to return this season, he believes his new injury is similar to the one which shut him down at the season’s outset. Hunter has thrown just 5.1 innings this season, the second of a two-year, 18MM deal that hasn’t worked out well for the team to this point.

Ramos, 26, is up for for his fourth separate stint with the club in 2019. A solid contributor from 2016-2018, his numbers have taken a downturn this year. After striking out 26.5% of hitters over his first three MLB seasons, Ramos has seen that rate plummet to 15.8% this year. An IL stint for shoulder stiffness could help explain his struggles, as Ramos’ average fastball is over two miles per hour slower than it was in 2018, per Brooks Baseball. His velocity didn’t bounce back immediately after he returned from the injury, though, and his results in Lehigh Valley this year have only marginally surpassed the mediocre production he’s managed in the majors.

Aroldis Chapman On Upcoming Opt-Out Decision

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Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman is one of several prominent major leaguers who will have a chance to opt out of his contract after the season. Unlike a lot of his peers, there’s seemingly a realistic shot Chapman will vacate the remainder of his deal.

The Cuban fireballer briefly discussed his future with Ken Davidoff of the New York Post during this week’s All-Star festivities, saying through an interpreter: “Honestly, I haven’t been thinking about that at all because through these years, I’ve dealt with some injuries. So the concentration and the focus was to stay healthy this year and try to have a good season. It hasn’t even crossed my mind.”

Chapman’s in his second go-around with the Yankees, who acquired the superstar left-hander for a fairly underwhelming package of players from the Reds in December 2015 amid troubling domestic violence allegations. The league suspended Chapman for the first 30 games of 2016, but he came back to dominate on the mound with New York that year. The Yankees weren’t surefire contenders when the summer rolled around, though, and Chapman was on the cusp of free agency. Consequently, they traded him to the Cubs in a win-win deal. The Yankees landed middle infielder Gleyber Torres, then an excellent prospect and now a terrific 22-year-old major leaguer. The Cubs, with Chapman’s help, won their first World Series in 108 years.

Fresh off his championship with the Cubs, Chapman rejoined the Yankees heading into 2017 for a five-year, $86MM payday. That’s still the largest guarantee ever awarded to a reliever. Chapman will have another two years and $30MM left on his contract after this season, but considering the way he has pitched, the soon-to-be 32-year-old could try his hand in free agency again.

Now a six-time All-Star, Chapman has avoided injuries in 2019 and recorded a matching 1.82 ERA/1.82 FIP with 12.98 K/9, 3.12 BB/9 (one of the lowest walk rates of his career) and a 45.2 percent groundball rate over 34 2/3 innings. Chapman has racked up 24 saves in 27 tries in the process, giving him 260 on 290 tries in his career. Adding to Chapman’s appeal, Statcast regards him as elite or close to it in strikeout percentage, hard-hit rate, exit velocity against, expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average.

If you’re looking for negatives, Chapman’s K/9, although hefty, is the second-worst mark of his career. Meanwhile, Chapman’s swinging-strike percentage (12.3) is a personal low, merely above average and far less than his lifetime figure (16.8). A drop in four-seam velocity has possibly contributed to Chapman missing fewer bats, though his 98 mph heat remains plenty imposing, and the 99.9 average on his sinker – a pitch he uses just over 10 percent of the time – is jaw-dropping.

All things considered, Chapman has a legitimate case to head back to the open market, where he’d again be the most proven closer available. Unlike his previous trip to free agency, though, Chapman would surely come with a qualifying offer attached. The Yankees wouldn’t simply let him walk for nothing.

Leonys Martin Signs With Chiba Lotte Marines

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Outfielder Leonys Martin has signed a one-year deal with Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, according to the Associated Press. Martin became a free agent June 29, a week after the Indians designated him for assignment.

Trekking to Asia continues a frenetic 12 months for the 31-year-old Martin. The Indians acquired Martin from Detroit at last July’s trade deadline, only to see his season end in mid-August because of a life-threatening bacterial infection. Martin overcame the illness to return to Cleveland on a $3MM salary, spending the first few months of 2019 as its primary center fielder. However, the Tribe cut the cord on Martin after an unproductive start. As part of an Indians outfield that has struggled in general this season, Martin hit a meager .199/.276/.343 (61 wRC+) with nine home runs, four steals in nine attempts and minus-0.5 fWAR across 264 plate appearances.

Although Martin’s 2019 with the Tribe went poorly, he was a 2.5-fWAR player just a year ago. It was the fourth year with at least 2.0 fWAR for the defensively adept Martin dating back to his first full season, 2013, with the Rangers. Martin has also stolen between 24 and 36 bases in four seasons, but he combined for just 11 steals during his truncated 2018-19 campaigns. He’ll take a lifetime .244/.301/.367 line (81 wRC+) with 58 homers and 126 steals in 2,792 MLB attempts overseas, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Martin back in the majors eventually.

Latest on Red Sox Bullpen

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TODAY: Wright was knocked out of last night’s game when he was struck by a comebacker off the bat of Max Muncy. Per a team announcement, he has been diagnosed with a right foot contusion, but x-rays fortunately came back negative. As Cotillo notes, Wright’s health status bears monitoring, as any long-term injury to the knuckleballer might force Dombrowski to reevaluate his confidence in the club’s end-of-game options.

SATURDAY, 11:08pm: The Red Sox addressed their rotation Saturday with the addition of veteran right-hander Andrew Cashner, whom they acquired from the AL East rival Orioles. There had been a need for another starter in Boston, which has lacked a true complement to Chris Sale, David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez and Rick Porcello for most of the season. The role was supposed to go to Nathan Eovaldi, one of the many heroes of Boston’s 2018 World Series-winning campaign, but the right-hander has seldom pitched since re-signing on a four-year, $68MM contract over the winter.

Eovaldi underwent surgery on his pitching elbow in late April, three weeks into the season, and his recovery has taken far longer than the team anticipated. Now, with just two and a half months left in the campaign, the Red Sox don’t believe Eovaldi has enough time to stretch back out as a starter. Therefore, Eovaldi will return as a closer – a decision the playoff-contending Red Sox hope will give them a legitimate Craig Kimbrel successor for the rest of 2019. And the 28-year-old Eovaldi is finally on the verge of rejoining the club. Eovaldi could slot into Boston’s bullpen “within about a week,” assuming the short rehab stint he embarks on early next week goes well, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Saturday (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com).

Eovaldi sputtered out of the gates this year before his surgery, pitching to a bloated 6.00 ERA/7.10 FIP with 6.86 K/9 against 4.71 BB/9 in four starts and 21 innings. But Eovaldi held his own over a much larger sample size a year ago, and he brings a 97 mph fastball to the table that could play up in short outings this summer. If it does, Eovaldi would add a a much-needed end-of-game solution to a maligned bullpen that has tallied as many blown saves as saves (18). Boston’s relief corps hasn’t been a statistical disaster on the whole, though its 12th-place K/BB ratio, 13th-ranked FIP and 16th overall ERA are hardly indicative of a dominant unit.

The Red Sox, including their bullpen, took an 11-2 beating at the hands of their 2018 World Series foes – the Dodgers – on Saturday. While the Sox are a respectable 50-42, they’re currently a game and a half out of a wild-card spot and nine back in the AL East after rolling to 108 wins a season. Nevertheless, with Cashner and Eovaldi set to join Boston’s starting staff for most of the second half, Dombrowski suggested Saturday he could pass on further pickups before the July 31 trade deadline.

“We might (stand pat),” Dombrowski said, who later remarked (via Cotillo), “We like how our club looks, but we’ve liked how our club looks for a long time.”

In regards to his team’s bullpen, Dombrowski pointed to Eovaldi’s imminent return and the recent activation of Steven Wright from an 80-game PED suspension as reasons for contentment. Of course, that was before the Dodgers trounced Wright for three earned runs on three hits in a third of an inning Saturday. The knuckleballer has now surrendered at least one earned run in three of six appearances since his activation, and has yielded six ER on 11 hits (including three homers) in 6 1/3 frames on the season.

Despite Wright’s struggles, if we’re to believe Dombrowski, the righty may be someone Boston leans on down the stretch in lieu of outside help. Even if Dombrowski wants to make more additions to his pitching staff or anywhere else, though, there’s a question of how much more money he’ll be able to spend. The Red Sox are running an estimated luxury tax payroll upward of $245MM after trading for Cashner, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Exceeding the highest threshold, $246MM, would subject the Red Sox to the harshest penalties – a 75 percent tax on every dollar spent over the limit and a 10-spot fall for their top 2020 draft pick.

Also of great relevance: Owner John Henry said two weeks ago the franchise is “not going to be looking to add a lot of payroll” this summer. With two-plus weeks left before the deadline, we’ll find out soon if Henry sticks by that statement.

Marlins’ Bullpen Reportedly Earning Attention Of Scouts

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According to a report from MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, several scouts were in attendance for Saturday night’s game between the Marlins and Mets, presumably with an interest in observing several Miami relievers.

Though Frisaro did underscore that the participation of New York starter Noah Syndergaard in tonight’s affair likely had much to do with the heavy scouting presence at Marlins Park, he also proposed that a few interesting Miami arms could be of particular interest to competitive clubs.

Entering tonight’s game, the Marlins’ bullpen had posted a collective 2.25 ERA since June 1st, which was tied with the Braves and A’s for the third-best mark in the Majors in that span. It’s difficult to say which of Miami’s bullpen pieces would be most attractive to an acquiring club, but Frisaro points to Austin Brice, Jarlin Garcia and Nick Anderson as possible trade chips.

It is conceivable that an in-the-race team could buy into the 1.88 ERA of the 27-year-old Brice,  but only if they were to overlook his slightly less pristine underlying marks, which include a 4.39 xFIP. Jarlin Garcia could make for a solid LOOGY candidate for most teams, but his 6.30 career K/9 indicates that he isn’t the type of arm that typically elicits a ton of trade value.

Anderson could make for the club’s most appealing late-inning trade bait. The 6’5 righty is generating a prodigious number of strikeouts in his first big league campaign (13.85 K/9), turning to a 95-mph fastball in addition to a heavily used curveball. After giving up a decisive two-run dinger to Robinson Cano tonight, Anderson’s ERA sits at 4.46, but FIP (2.99) thinks much more highly of his 2019 work. The 29-year-old, whom Miami acquired from Minnesota this past November, is controllable for five years beyond the 2019 season.

Padres Reportedly Not “Committed” To Adding Starter

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Running contrary to recent reports linking the Padres to starters Matt Boyd and Noah Syndergaard, MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell today indicated that the team “seems unlikely” to “push” for either pitcher. While Padres general manager A.J. Preller is willing to add a controllable starter, he’s not “committed” to doing so, Cassavell writes.

It was just this week that we heard San Diego was “evaluating” Detroit’s Boyd, and they were similarly said to have “checked in” on the availability of the Mets’ long-maned Syndergaard. Their courtship of such controllable, proven starting options dates back to at least last year’s trade deadline. However, as Cassavell points out, the team is internally striking a posture of confidence in regard to their stable of in-house starters.

“It’s the most upside, from a talent perspective, that we’ve had in the rotation,” manager Andy Green told Cassavell in reference to the Padres current big league staff. Though San Diego’s rotations have hardly been the envy of baseball during Green’s four-year stint at the helm, he may not be entirely off-base in evaluating its current staff as a promising group.

Sophomores Eric Lauer and Joey Lucchesi–though perhaps not perfect exemplars of “hot talent lava”–have continued to pitch effectively in their second full campaigns (3.82 and 3.75 FIPs, respectively); rookie Chris Paddack has, for his part, produced some enviable underlying stats in his first 15 career starts (9.51 K/9 and 1.97 BB/9 in 82.1 innings). Meanwhile, the whiff-inducing Dinelson Lamet was recently welcomed back to the rotation after a 2018 Tommy John procedure, and there is optimism that fellow TJ survivor Garrett Richards could bolster the rotation come September. Generally respected young arms like Cal Quantrill and Logan Allen remain on hand to provide innings, and top prospect MacKenzie Gore was recently moved up to Double-A Amarillo–though the implication of a possible late-season promotion for Gore is purely my addition.

As Cassavell notes, Padres starters have amassed a collective 4.41 ERA on the season, which ranks 14th among big league teams. At 45-46, San Diego sits just two games back in the NL Wild Card standings, so it will be interesting to follow whether the Padres are indeed content with this current group, or if they make yet another win-now gesture in pursuit of their first postseason appearance since 2006.

AL Injury Notes: Tigers, Maybin, Lucroy

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The Tigers had a bit of a good news/bad news day in regards to some currently injured players. Gargantuan catcher Grayson Greiner has reportedly suffered a setback in his recovery process, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Sidelined with a lower back injury since June 13th, Greiner experienced a “flare up” in that region during a rehab game with High-A Lakeland. Apparently, subsequent tests have revealed a deeper issue: “They took a scan and saw something,” said Tigers skipper Ron Gardenhire. “Not a break, but a stress area, so they’ve immobilized it.” Greiner has been shut down from all baseball activities for the moment, so catching duties will continue to be split between John Hicks and Bobby Wilson, while a potential call-up of prospect Jake Rogers still looms in the offing.

In more positive Motor City news, Gardenhire revealed in McCosky’s report that second sacker Josh Harrison (hamstring) is nearing a rehab assignment, with the club eyeing a return at the end of July.

More injury check-ins from around the junior circuit…

  • Well-traveled Yankees outfielder Cameron Maybin has already had an eventful season thus far in 2019. After being cut by the Giants in the wake of a mid-spring DUI arrest and subsequently bouncing to the Indians Triple-A affiliate, Maybin was acquired by an injury-stricken Bombers team that was in sore need of outfield reinforcement. Though he provided superlative offensive performance in his first 42 games in pinstripes (138 wRC+), he hasn’t appeared in a game since suffering a calf injury on June 21st. According to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News, though, Maybin was running and participating in drills at Yankee Stadium today before the team’s game against the Blue Jays. No word has been given on a rehab date or possible return timeline for Maybin, but the club would certainly welcome back another outfield option given the current status of slugger Giancarlo Stanton.
  • Of course, no team has had a more eventful or emotional season thus far than the Angels. The tragic death of Tyler Skaggs–to say nothing of Friday night’s combined no-hitter dedicated to his memory–would seem to overshadow any baseball-related news story in a given season. However, for a moment, last Sunday’s homeplate collision between Jake Marisnick and Jonathan Lucroy was perhaps the most hot-button topic in sports. “The last thing I remember, I was kind of inching my way up the line and reaching for the baseball,” Lucroy said in a report by the Los Angeles Times’ Mike DiGiovanna. “The first thing I remember after that is when they put me on the golf cart. He knocked me out.” The report goes on to mention that Marisnick–who is appealing a two-game suspension in connection with the collision–texted an apology to Lucroy last week. Lucroy, fortunately, doesn’t expect to be sidelined by his resultant injuries for “too long.”

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