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Ken Giles Still Dealing With Elbow Inflammation

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Blue Jays closer Ken Giles has long been considered one of the best relievers who could change hands by the July 31 trade deadline. However, there is now serious doubt that a Giles trade will come together this week. Giles continues to deal with elbow inflammation over a month after the issue forced him to the injured list on June 20, manager Charlie Montoyo announced to Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star and other reporters Monday. It was the second straight day the right-hander was unavailable to pitch.

Teams began crossing Giles off their wish lists when he couldn’t take the mound Sunday, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who adds that “his trade value is gone until the winter.” If so, that would be a massive disappointment for the Blue Jays – who could have collected a sizable return for Giles – and for the playoff contender that may have added a dominant reliever to its bullpen for the next season-plus.

Giles, who’s making $6.3MM at the moment, will go through his last trip through arbitration over the winter. With that in mind, the Blue Jays don’t have to trade him this summer. However, considering what Giles has accomplished this season, now may have been the ideal time to move a healthy version of the flamethrowing 28-year-old. Giles has posted good to great production since he debuted with the Phillies in 2014, though this might be his top season yet. Through 35 innings, Giles has notched a near-spotless 1.54 ERA/1.60 FIP with 14.91 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, a sky-high 20.3 percent swinging-strike rate and 14 saves in 15 chances.

Toronto still has other relievers it could move, including Daniel Hudson and Joe Biagini, but nobody in Giles’ stratosphere. If the Jays truly aren’t in position to trade Giles in the next couple days, perhaps it’ll lead teams to step up their pursuits of the other premier relievers who could be available. The Pirates’ Felipe Vazquez, the Padres’ Kirby Yates, the Reds’ Raisel Iglesias, the Mets’ Edwin Diaz and the Tigers’ Shane Greene are among some of the prominent names in the rumor mill. Giants relievers Will Smith, Sam Dyson and Tony Watson looked like prime trade candidates earlier in the summer, but thanks to their team’s recent tear, all three could wind up staying put. Giles may be in the same boat.

Blue Jays Had Interest In Extending Marcus Stroman

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The Blue Jays traded Marcus Stroman to the Mets on Sunday, ending a fruitful tenure in Toronto for the diminutive right-hander. The Jays did have interest in extending Stroman before they decided to part with him, though. General manager Ross Atkins said Monday (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet) that he had discussions “multiple times over the last couple of weeks” with Stroman’s agent in regards to a long-term contract. In the end, however, “It felt as though that gap was too big.”

It’s unclear how high Toronto was willing to go to keep Stroman, who remains on track to reach free agency after the 2020 season. The 28-year-old professed a love for Toronto and the country of Canada on several occasions during his Blue Jays career. Back in February, for example, Stroman stated he “embodies the city of Toronto” more than anybody else, adding he hoped to remain a Blue Jay “for a long time.” Stroman claimed at the time the Jays hadn’t offered him an extension, though, and expressed frustration about his lack of long-term security with the franchise.

Five-plus months later, Stroman is now with another organization. And whether New York will broach an extension with Stroman isn’t known, but it stands to reason the team will if it follows through on trading Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler in the near future. Should those two depart, ace Jacob deGrom and the inconsistent Steven Matz would be the Mets’ only current starters under control past 2020. Moreover, the Mets aren’t teeming with pitching prospects who are close to the majors, especially after trading 24-year-old left-hander Anthony Kay as part of the package for Stroman.

Since debuting in 2014, Stroman has made a strong case for a sizable contract by posting a 3.76 ERA/3.61 FIP, a 59.4 percent groundball rate and a 2.52 BB/9 in 789 2/3 innings (135 appearances, 129 starts). However, Strikeouts are one key element somewhat absent from Stroman’s game. He has fanned just over 7.2 batters per nine for his career and a bit under that figure this season. He’s also sporting a sub-10 percent swinging-strike rate in a league where the average mark has climbed all the way to 11.2. Stroman’s lack of high-end bat-missing ability may negatively affect the value of his next deal, though he could still be in line for a lucrative payday sometime before the 2021 season.

Brian Goodwin Garnering Interest

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Angels outfielder Brian Goodwin is drawing interest from teams seeking corner depth in the grass, Buster Olney of ESPN tweets. As a 55-52 team with a glimmer of a playoff chance, it’s unclear how open the Angels are to moving the 28-year-old.

He wouldn’t net a significant return in a trade, but Goodwin has been an effective buy-low pickup for the Angels. With left fielder Justin Upton battling a serious toe injury that ultimately kept him out until mid-June, the Angels claimed Goodwin off release waivers from the Royals immediately before the season began. At that point, Goodwin was coming off a run of playable offensive production divided between Washington and Kansas City. The lefty-swinging Goodwin posted a league-average wRC+ (100) from 2017-18, a 458-plate appearance span in which he slashed .246/.315/.456 with 19 home runs and 10 stolen bases.

The Angels likely would have been content with similar production this year from Goodwin, but they’ve instead received markedly better work. While it has been a hot-and-cold type of season for Goodwin – who has had two excellent months (April, July) and two subpar ones (May, June) – he has managed to put together a .287/.343/.480 line (117 wRC+) with 29 extra-base hits (18 doubles, nine homers, two triples) and three steals over 281 trips to the plate. A .360 batting average on balls in play has propped up Goodwin’s output, to be sure, and the gap between his weighted on-base average (.347) and expected wOBA (.319) also suggests good fortune has played a role in his success.

What Goodwin has done as an Angel may be smoke and mirrors to some extent, but no interested team would expect to be acquiring any kind of outfield savior. The fact that Goodwin’s a useful major league hitter, a fast runner and someone who can play all three outfield spots – albeit not especially well, according to advanced metrics – makes him an appealing piece. Plus, he’s earning close to the league minimum this season and still has another three years of arbitration eligibility remaining. The Angels may decide to keep Goodwin for those reasons, not to mention they could lose right fielder Kole Calhoun in the offseason if they decline his $14MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout.

Tigers Place Bobby Wilson On Outright Waivers; Will Select Jake Rogers

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The Tigers placed catcher Bobby Wilson on outright waivers Saturday, according to manager Ron Gardenhire (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). There is a 72-hour window for a team to claim Wilson. If no one grabs him by Tuesday afternoon, Wilson can either accept an outright assignment to Triple-A Toledo or elect free agency.

The Tigers are clearing out Wilson to make room for catcher prospect Jake Rogers, whom they’re poised to select from Toledo, McCosky reports. A third-round pick of the Astros in 2016, Rogers joined the Tigers a year later as part of their return for ace Justin Verlander.

The 24-year-old Rogers is known for his defensive prowess, but he raked at the Double-A level this season en route to a promotion to Triple-A ball. Since joining Toledo’s roster, Rogers has batted .223/.321/.458 (95 wRC+) with nine home runs in 191 plate appearances. In its most recent assessment of the Tigers’ farm system, Baseball America (subscription link) rated Rogers as the organization’s 13th-best prospect and wrote that he could “help Detroit in the near future.”

There is a realistic path to plenty of immediate playing time for Rogers, as Wilson, John Hicks and the now-injured Grayson Greiner have all endured horrific offensive seasons. Tigers catchers have combined for a league-worst 30 wRC+, meaning they’ve been about as useful at the plate as many pitchers. No Detroit backstop has been worse with the bat than Wilson, owner of a .091/.130/.114 line (minus-41 wRC+) in 47 plate appearances since the team promoted him to take Greiner’s place in mid-June. While the well-traveled 36-year-old has never been much of a hitter, the Tigers certainly expected better than what they’ve gotten from Wilson.

Pitching Chatter: Vazquez, Diaz, Ray, Colome, Greene

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As the Dodgers continue to try to pry closer Felipe Vazquez loose from the Pirates, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link) that the sides are at a bit of an impasse. It seems the Bucs would (quite understandably) like to receive soaring L.A. prospect Gavin Lux, a versatile infielder who has completely obliterated Triple-A pitching (.474/.553/.918 in 114 plate appearances with eight home runs and a 17:17 K/BB ratio) since a mid-season promotion. The clubs may well be engaged in a bit of a staring contest as the deadline draws near.

More news and rumors from the pitching market …

  • The Rays may have faded in the AL East, but they’re not planning to go quietly. Olney tweets that the club is “doing work” on Mets reliever Edwin Diaz, making for an intriguing (if vague) connection. Beyond the obvious appeal of a high-charged young hurler who has shown a past ability to dominate like few others, there are a few other reasons to like this match. Diaz’s run of poor results will limit his arbitration earning power, boosting his appeal to the payroll-conscious Rays. And as Mike Petriello of MLB.com explains, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Diaz is every bit as good as ever before.
  • Rival organizations “fully expect” the Diamondbacks to deal southpaw Robbie Ray, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Arizona GM Mike Hazen continued to acknowledge his club’s tricky middle ground while avoiding a firm commitment to a particular course of action, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The top baseball ops man did acknowledge that there’s a possibility the team could pull off enough sell-side moves that it wouldn’t make sense to reload in the offseason. At the moment, the Brewers, Astros, and Yankees are among the teams with active talks or interest in Ray, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
  • With a real shot at a much-anticipated return to the top of the heap in the NL Central, the Cardinals could yet swing a big deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that the St. Louis ballclub is interested in a controllable starter. Beyond that, the Cards’ precise plans remain a bit difficult to ascertain. The club is interested in lefty relief pitching, though that’s a trade deadline staple for many contenders. We haven’t seen the team connected prominently to any high-end hurlers, but a bold move seems tempting.
  • We’ve seen the Yankees connected to a wide variety of hurlers in recent weeks, with the club focused primarily on starters but also entertaining relief upgrades. They’ve recently chatted with the Tigers about old friend Shane Greene, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). Most contenders are no doubt at least checking in on Greene, who’s among the likeliest players in baseball to be traded in the coming days.
  • Similarly, the Phillies have cast an exceedingly broad net. Their relief situation remains problematic; now, there are indications that David Robertson’s rehab may drag into September, as Nightengale was among those to tweet. Another name to add to the list of Phils possibilities: Alex Colome of the White Sox. Morosi tweets that there’s “continued interest” on the part of the Philadelphia organization.

Poll: Grading The Marcus Stroman Trade

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After weeks of trade rumors centering on longtime Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman, the club found a taker for the right-hander Sunday. Toronto sent him to New York, which many anticipated would happen, but not to the NYC-based team anyone was expecting. Instead of shipping Stroman to the World Series-contending Yankees, the Blue Jays dealt him to a Mets team that’s five games under .500 (50-55), six back of wild-card position and will have to jump over five other NL hopefuls down the stretch to earn a playoff spot.

In all likelihood, Stroman won’t be part of a postseason-bound franchise this season. Nevertheless, the Mets decided it was worthwhile to surrender two prospects from an already below-average farm system for Stroman. The Mets gave up Triple-A left-hander Anthony Kay and Single-A righty Simeon Woods Richardson to land Stroman and his remaining year and a half of team control. Now, the Mets could turn around by Wednesday’s trade deadline and make significant subtractions from the rotation Stroman just joined. They did send lefty Jason Vargas to the Phillies on Monday, but the Mets have two much bigger fish – righties Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler – who have frequented the rumor mill of late.

There shouldn’t be pressure to move Syndergaard, who’s under control through 2021. However, Syndergaard would surely bring back more in a trade than Stroman, enabling the Mets to somewhat reload their farm after taking more pieces from it Sunday. Likewise, it’s not a must for the Mets to wave goodbye to Wheeler. Although the 29-year-old’s a pending free agent, the Mets could keep him and try to work out an extension – which has at least come up as a possibility. Alternatively, the team could retain Wheeler through the season and issue him a qualifying offer if it’s dissatisfied with the trade offers that come in this week.

For now, the top of the Mets’ 2020 rotation looks like this: Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman. On paper, that would be one of the game’s most formidable trios, but we may never see them in action together.

Unlike the Mets, the Blue Jays aren’t aiming to contend in 2020, which is a major reason why they traded Stroman. Expectations were Stroman would fetch at least one ballyhooed top 100 prospect in a trade, but that didn’t end up happening.

In Kay, the Blue Jays picked up a near-to-the-majors 24-year-old whom Baseball America (subscription required) ranked as the Mets’ fourth-best prospect prior to the trade. The Mets chose Kay 31st overall in the 2016 draft, but he dealt with an elbow injury that year and then underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017. As a result, Kay didn’t pitch competitively for the organization until last year. However, with help from a fastball that can reach 96 mph, Kay has quickly ascended since debuting in 2018. He thrived at the Double-A level to begin this season before earning a promotion to the top of the minors. Kay has struggled in his first action at Triple-A, though, having put up a 6.61 ERA/6.22 FIP with 7.47 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 and a 30.2 percent groundball rate in 31 1/3 innings. He is now the Blue Jays’ fifth-ranked prospect in MLB.com’s estimation, which posits that Kay could find his niche as a “mid-rotation-type starter” in the bigs.

Meanwhile, MLB.com places Woods Richardson seventh among Toronto’s prospects. Just 18, a year removed from going in the second round of the draft, Woods Richardson has logged spectacular strikeout and walk numbers (11.14 K/9, 1.95 BB/9) with a 4.25 ERA/2.56 FIP and a 49.3 percent grounder rate in 20 starts and 78 1/3 innings at the Single-A level this season. He possesses “premium stuff and mound demeanor to spare,” according to BA, which rated him sixth among Mets farmhands.

Although they’re not premier prospects at the moment, there is optimism in regards to Kay and Woods Richardson evolving into long-term major leaguers. The Mets opted for the surer bet in Stroman, however, and are now evidently hoping he’ll help them to a playoff berth in 2020 (if not a miraculous run this season). But it’s up for debate whether New York should have traded for Stroman, especially considering the team may now weaken the rotation it just strengthened by parting with Syndergaard and-or Wheeler.

How do you think the two teams made out in this deal? (Poll links for app users)

Grade the Mets' acquisition of Marcus Stroman
B 34.90% (8,260 votes)
A 28.00% (6,627 votes)
C 19.02% (4,503 votes)
D 10.05% (2,378 votes)
F 8.04% (1,902 votes)
Total Votes: 23,670
Grade the Blue Jays' return for Marcus Stroman
C 36.29% (8,035 votes)
D 24.90% (5,513 votes)
B 20.02% (4,432 votes)
F 13.21% (2,924 votes)
A 5.59% (1,238 votes)
Total Votes: 22,142

Braves Reportedly Considering Outfield Acquisition

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The Braves are contacting rivals in search of outfield help, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The Atlanta organization is evidently looking to address the newfound uncertainty surrounding the status of right fielder Nick Markakis.

It didn’t seem as if the Braves would be involved in this segment of the market, but a fractured wrist now threatens to put Markakis out of action until late in the season. Even if they’d prefer to wait and see how he heals up, the club is no doubt concerned with bypassing an opportunity to fill the gap at the deadline.

There is certainly an internal route to filling the job, depending upon what one thinks of Adam Duvall. He had spent the entire season on optional assignment until recently, earning a $2,875,000 salary to serve as depth and for his potential future value. Obviously the club believes in his talent to some degree to have handled him in this manner, though it also hadn’t seen fit to call him up until forced by the Markakis injury.

Duvall makes for a natural platoon partner with Ender Inciarte, who was seemingly displaced by Austin Riley as a regular but now seems to be a key figure. (This is a key reason I argued the team ought not rush into trading him.) Matt Joyce also remains an option from the left side, giving the club some options to work with. But with Riley struggling at the plate and Johan Camargo needed to fill in at short in place of the injured Dansby Swanson, we’re seeing the first stresses on what has been a sturdy position-player mix all year long in Atlanta.

Under the circumstances, it’s sensible to consider outside alternatives — particularly if someone can be had for an appealing enough price. The Braves are surely still focused on adding pitching, but there’s an argument to be made that they ought now put nearly as much emphasis on installing a bat. While the need arose due to an unfortunate injury, it does create an opportunity to add a slugger to an already potent lineup.

Cardinals Option Harrison Bader, Promote Lane Thomas

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The Cardinals have optioned outfielder Harrison Bader, per the MLB.com transactions page (h/t Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch; Twitter links). Lane Thomas will come up to take over for the struggling 25-year-old, per the Dispatch’s Rick Hummel.

This is a disappointing moment for Bader, who turned in a strong 2018 effort but has fallen off quite a bit this year. Through 260 trips to the plate this season, he’s slashing a meager .195/.309/.339 with six home runs. Bader has actually made more hard contact than he did last year and is identified by Statcast numbers as a positive regression candidate. On the other hand, those figures also suggest his 2018 output was due in some part to good fortune on batted balls.

There’s still long-term value here if the Cards — or another team — believe that Bader can figure things out at the plate. He has boosted his walk rate to 11.2%, helping to offset a lofty 28.1% strikeout rate, but there’s work to be done. Importantly, defensive metrics still love Bader’s glovework. He’s curiously grading poorly on the bases despite maintaining excellent speed, though perhaps that’s just a blip.

Notably, by optioning Bader today, the Cards will keep him shy of reaching a full year of MLB service. He’s sitting at 1.161 years at present, meaning he’s eleven days shy of passing a new threshold.

Thomas had previously popped up in trade rumors. Instead, he’ll be installed — at least temporarily — as a piece of the MLB outfield mix for a club that has ever intention of making a run at the NL Central title. Thomas is capable of lining up at all three outfield spots, making him a flexible piece for the Cards.

The 23-year-old Thomas debuted earlier this season but only received a brief run in a reserve role. He has spent the bulk of the season at Triple-A, where he’s again turning in solid results at the plate. Through 304 plate appearances, the right-handed hitter carries a .268/.352/.460 slash with ten long balls.

Drew Pomeranz Drawing Some Interest

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The Giants are suddenly drawing some interest in lefty Drew Pomeranz, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The 30-year-old southpaw lost his rotation spot a couple weeks back and has been sharp since moving to the ’pen — albeit in a tiny sample of three appearances. Pomeranz has tossed 4 1/3 shutout frames with six strikeouts, one hit allowed and one walk.

It’s obviously unlikely that he’d command a significant return after logging a 6.10 ERA, 5.58 FIP and 4.67 xFIP in 72 1/3 innings as a starter. But Pomeranz has had considerable success as a reliever in the past. He spent the bulk of the 2014-15 seasons in the Oakland bullpen and posted a 3.08 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9. In his career, he’s turned in a 2.86 ERA in 91 2/3 innings of relief, notching a 96-to-34 K/BB ratio and allowing just a .213/.292/.317 batting line in that time.

The situation for Pomeranz isn’t entirely different from that of just-traded former teammate Derek Holland. Pomeranz has also fared much better against left-handed hitters this year, holding them to a cumulative .250/.309/.398 batting line with 11.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Pomeranz also wouldn’t cost much, as he’s playing on a $2MM base salary in 2019. Both pitchers hold appeal as possible left-on-left matchup men who’d also represent swingman depth given their long histories as starters.

For the Giants, moving Pomeranz wouldn’t necessarily have to occur as part of a broader sell-off. If the club decides to hang onto its best relief assets, it’d continue to feature two quality southpaws in closer Will Smith and setup man Tony Watson. At the same time, if the club does forego significant sell-side moves, it probably doesn’t make much sense to part with Pomeranz if he’s seen as one of the club’s best seven relievers. The return isn’t likely to be substantial. But if he just isn’t a part of the San Francisco plans, perhaps there’s a shot of gaining some salary relief.

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