MLBTR Poll: Grading The Rays/Padres Trade
While Thursday’s Rays/Padres deal headlined by Tommy Pham and Hunter Renfroe likely won’t go down as this winter’s most shocking, the trade had something to say about the respective offseason strategies of both clubs. Tampa Bay, for their part, cut salary, increased controllability, and added yet another prized infield prospect to an already enviable collection. San Diego, true to their stated desire for a near-term return to contention, look to have secured an immediate improvement at the top of their lineup while also shuffling in an interesting two-way player likely capable of providing the big league roster with some extra support.
Hunter Renfroe is the most immediate addition to the Rays’ roster, even if this deal may have been more about the acquisition of infield prospect Xavier Edwards from the viewpoint of Tampa Bay GM Erik Neander. Renfroe has gained his share of detractors over the years for a free-swinging, low-OBP approach at the plate, but 2019 saw him finally realize the defensive potential many scouts foresaw when he was a top-100 prospect. Lining up primarily in the corners with a few starts in center, the former Bulldog recorded 22 Defensive Runs Saved and a 10.1 Ultimate Zone Rating last year, after recording average-or-worse marks in those categories the year prior. His arm is also touted as one of MLB’s most imposing.
Observers noting Renfroe’s underwhelming 98 wRC+ last year might be well-served to remember that the 27-year-old had a .252/.308/.613 line (132 wRC+) with 27 home runs heading into the All-Star break last year, before a variety of injuries were believed to have led to a precipitous second-half decline (Renfroe ended his season with a foot surgery). But even if Renfroe proves to be the roughly average hitter he’s been over the course of his career, Neander will have acquired a defensive standout capable of providing power, if nothing else, to the Rays’ lineup; better yet, he’s projected to make just $3.4MM in his first trip through arb, making him a very affordable source of said power.
As for the second aspect of this deal for the Rays, Edwards is a 20-year-old speedster who reached High-A last season. He’s hit just one home run in over 700 plate appearances since making his minor-league debut in 2018, but the youngster has terrorized pitchers (with a .328/.395/.399 career slash) and scorched the basepaths (56 steals in 168 games). When he was taken with the 38th-overall pick in the 2018 draft, MLB Pipeline relayed that scouts observed “excellent actions and footwork at shortstop” with an arm sufficient for the infield’s left side; he’s mostly split time between short and second so far in the minors, but it stands to reason his speed would play in center, as well. The Rays also acquired a PTBNL in this deal, which is not to be disregarded when said player is coming from a loaded San Diego system.
In Pham, the Padres added a player with a clear leg up on Renfroe for the title of “Best MLB Player” involved in this deal. While, at 31, he may never again reach the vertigo-inducing heights he climbed in 2017 with the Cardinals (149 wRC+ in 530 PAs), he’s still been an excellent player over the last two seasons in Tampa. His 12.1 percent walk rate, .186 isolated slugging mark, and 125 wRC+ since the beginning of 2018 all bear the markings of a standout hitter–and that’s before adding in the 42 homers and 40 steals he’s managed in that time. At an expected arbitration award of $8.6MM in his penultimate trip through the process, Pham rates as an immediate offensive upgrade over Renfroe, while drawing a salary that will possibly be less than half of what Marcell Ozuna figures to command this offseason.
Jake Cronenworth, the second player headed to San Diego in this deal, is a 25-year-old infielder capable of handling mop-up pitching duties in a pinch. Before 2019, the former Wolverine had never recorded a slugging mark north of .400 in his minor league career, but his first prolonged exposure to Triple-A baseball yielded an immediate improvement at the plate last year (surprise!). His .329/.422/.511 line with 10 homers in 419 plate appearances would lead one to believe that he’s ready for at least a part-time role in the bigs, even if those numbers were inflated by context somewhat; of course, hitting environment cuts both ways in prospect evaluation, so Cronenworth should be commended for being able to log 7.1 scoreless innings as a part-time pitcher in 2019, as well.
So, here we have a deal that, like a previous deal swung by Padres GM AJ Preller this offseason, seems to fit clear needs for both clubs. Question is, whose side do you like best?
First, Tampa Bay…
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And San Diego…
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Agency Changes: Ramirez, Langeliers
We’ll wrap up this Saturday night with a couple agency changes around baseball. For a full listing of player/agent pairings, be sure to check out MLBTR’s Agency Database.
- Angels’ right-hander Noé Ramirez has hired Steve Rath and Jeff Borris of Ballengee Group, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Ramirez, 29, is eligible for arbitration as a Super Two player this offseason. He’s projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to earn $1MM. In 51 appearances (including seven “starts” as an opener) in 2019, Ramirez worked to a 3.99 ERA with a strong combination of strikeouts (28.2%) and walks (7.1%).
- Braves’ catching prospect Shea Langeliers is now being represented by the Scott Boras Corporation, Heyman adds (via Twitter). Regarded as a strong defensive catcher, Langeliers overcame a hand injury to slash .308/.374/.530 in his junior season at Baylor. He wasn’t quite as productive in his first taste of pro ball, hitting just .255/.310/.343 over 239 plate appearances with the Braves’ Low-A affiliate in the second half. Slow start notwithstanding, the #9 overall pick in last year’s draft is among the game’s best catching prospects.
AL Notes: Sale, Mariners, Gordon
Let’s check in on a few notes from the American League:
- Red Sox ace Chris Sale finished the 2019 season on the injured list with inflammation in his throwing elbow. However, there’s “no doubt” he’ll be ready for spring training, he told reporters (including Adam Fisher of the Fort Myers News-Press). Sale was cleared to begin throwing last week, and he offered a few details on his offseason program yesterday. Currently, Sale is throwing three times a week, he said, and he plans to up his workload soon before moving to long-toss and, eventually, mound work. Sale’s peripherals were dominant again last season, but his 147.1 innings of 4.40 ERA ball no doubt made for some disappointing results. The Sox will be hoping for more typical bottom line numbers from the star southpaw in 2020.
- The Mariners don’t plan on making any noteworthy additions on the position player side in free agency, GM Jerry Dipoto indicated to reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). “We have very likely the position player club you are looking at right now, barring the potential for a trade, which is always possible,” Dipoto said. While Dipoto didn’t mention any specific trade possibilities, Divish notes the organization would like to find a taker for Dee Gordon to open second base up full-time for Shed Long. Doing so, though, would be a difficult task, with Gordon due $13.8MM in 2020 and coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons.
- Nevertheless, the Mariners could be in line for some modest upgrades on the pitching staff, Dipoto suggested to Divish in the same piece. “We do have some ongoing conversations with potential free-agent additions,” Dipoto said, presumably referring to pitching upgrades given his declaration that the position player grouping was largely set. Dipoto added that any acquisitions are likely to be flyers on bounceback players, in a similar vein to the club’s earlier signings of Carl Edwards, Jr. and Kendall Graveman. Speculatively speaking, players like Michael Wacha, Blake Treinen, or Pedro Strop all have strong track records but are coming off disappointing 2019 seasons. All three figure to command a higher guarantee than was necessary to bring in Edwards ($950K) or Graveman ($2MM), though.
KBO’s Doosan Bears To Sign Chris Flexen
Right-hander Chris Flexen is set to join the Doosan Bears of the Korea Baseball Organization, reports Marc Carig of the Athletic (via Twitter). The Mets designated Flexen for assignment yesterday to make way for Brad Brach.
The terms of the deal aren’t yet known, but Flexen will presumably take home significantly more with the Bears than he would’ve had he cleared waivers and remained in the Mets’ system. The 25-year-old has made 27 appearances (11 starts) at the big league level for New York since 2017. They’ve not gone well, as Flexen has a cumulative 8.07 ERA with 49 strikeouts and 54 walks in 68 innings.
Disastrous MLB results aside, Flexen was solid this season with Triple-A Syracuse. In 78.2 innings across 26 games (14 starts) in the hitter-friendly International league, he worked to a 4.46 ERA with a strong combination of strikeouts (26.7%) and walks (6.1%). He also showed a velocity boost in his brief big league time in 2019, averaging 94.54 MPH on his four-seam fastball, up from 93.31 MPH the year prior, per Brooks Baseball.
Between his youth, arm speed and high minors results, it’s easy to see why the Bears are intrigued by Flexen. He’ll need to demonstrate better control in the KBO, but Flexen’s certainly young enough to pop back up on MLB teams’ radars in the future.
Tigers Sign Jorge Bonifacio To Minor-League Deal
The Tigers have signed corner outfielder Jorge Bonifacio to a minor-league contract, reports Jason Beck of MLB.com (via Twitter). The deal includes an invite to spring training, Beck adds.
Bonifacio was released last month by the Royals, with whom he spent the first ten years of his pro career. He appeared at the MLB level each of the past three seasons with Detroit’s division rivals.
While Bonifacio once looked like a potential long-term piece in KC, things have gone south the past two years. He was suspended for the first 80 games of 2018 for performance-enhancing drugs, and he struggled at the plate in that season’s second half. He spent almost all of 2019 at Triple-A Omaha, where he was dreadful offensively. Bonifacio’s .222/.284/.417 slash translated to just a 62 wRC+ in the hitters’ haven that was the Pacific Coast League. Despite the Royals’ struggles at the big league level, Bonifacio only made it back to the highest level for five games.
That said, it’s a reasonable roll of the dice for the Tigers, where Travis Demeritte failed to stake a claim to the right field job after Nicholas Castellanos was traded mid-season. Bonifacio is still just 26 years old and only two years removed from putting up a serviceable .255/.320/.432 (98 wRC+) line. Bonifacio’s out of options, so if he does make the team, he’ll need to remain on the active roster or else be re-exposed to waivers. Given Detroit’s lack of uncertainty in the outfield, it seems he’s found a reasonable opportunity to reestablish himself.
Latest On Gerrit Cole
Teams will be making their initial offers to Gerrit Cole in the coming days, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter). Cole, the top free agent in this year’s class, is a near-lock to exceed David Price’s $217MM guarantee, the current record contract for a pitcher.
Which teams figure to be in on Cole? The Yankees are seemingly committed to bringing Cole to the Bronx, and Peter Gammons of the Athletic somewhat cryptically tweets that the Bombers “were not denied” in their pursuit. Nevertheless, Passan’s sources hear that the Angels and Dodgers do remain in the running alongside the Yankees as favorites for Cole’s services. Both LA organizations have previously met with the Southern California native, as have the Yankees.
While that big-market trio seems to have moved to the forefront of the Cole race, other teams may still yet enter the mix once the time comes to put formal offers on the table. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reiterates (via Twitter) the Phillies’ and Rangers’ interest. Recent indications, though, are that Philadelphia and Texas seem to be more focused on fellow Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon.
That interest in Rendon, who himself figures to handily exceed $200MM, suggests that both organizations have ample spending room should they set their sights on Cole instead. However, the Phillies have already made one massive outlay on starting pitching this offseason, signing Zack Wheeler to a $118MM deal. The Rangers, meanwhile, have seemingly plugged two holes in their rotation via smaller deals for Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. With that in mind, it seems to make sense for those two clubs to turn their attention to the position player side of things.
With the Cole market seemingly heating up, he figures to be the center of attention at next week’s Winter Meetings. With some of the sport’s biggest spenders eyeing him, Cole will surely break the bank whenever he makes the final decision.
Mets Interested In Rick Porcello
With Zack Wheeler officially jumping ship to join a division rival, the Mets are exploring options on the starting pitching market, speaking with free agent right-hander Rick Porcello and his representatives, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR tabbed Porcello to receive a one-year deal worth $11MM. Coming off an awful 2019 season, the 30-year-old doesn’t have all that many factors working in his favor, but the sheer number of teams lacking depth in the starting rotation makes it a likely proposition that Porcello attracts his fair share of interest—especially given his durability; he’s never made fewer than 27 starts in any of his eleven big league seasons.
And while he can hardly be considered a direct substitute for Wheeler’s production, Porcello nonetheless represents an intriguing option with some potential. After a nice 2018 showing, Porcello regressed considerably last year, stumbling to a 5.52 ERA that ranked dead last among qualified starters. But his control and K:BB ratio makes him a viable candidate for a spot in the back end of a Major League rotation.
The question that defines Porcello’s market is how much teams buy into his ability to spin the baseball, which ranks among the best in baseball. Per Statcast, the spin rates Porcello generates on his curveball and fastball rank in the 89th and 74th percentiles, respectively, with his slider also grading out well. Teams who think they can transform that skill into on-field results might look to add Porcello on a relatively low-risk deal.
However, that profile glosses over his troubling inability to prevent home runs. Porcello ranks firmly below average in groundball rate and home run rate, and while that in itself isn’t a dealbreaker (he shares company with names like Jack Flaherty, Gerrit Cole, and Justin Verlander) it often spells bad news for a pitcher who doesn’t miss a lot of bats—Porcello saw his K/9 drop from a career-best 8.9 in 2018 to just 7.4 last year. The aforementioned trio of Cy Young contenders is distinguished from Porcello in that their opponents simply don’t put the ball in play enough to do real damage with the home run. It bears mentioning that New York’s Citi Field certainly offers a more pitcher-friendly environment that could mitigate Porcello’s weakness somewhat.
While the Cy Young Award on his mantle suggests otherwise, Porcello has never really been a bona fide ace. Still, he showed in 2018 that he can be a fine complementary rotation piece, filling out the Boston staff behind Chris Sale and David Price. Just one season removed from that 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP year, Porcello could fill a similar role behind the Mets’ Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. And given the organization’s penchant for honing starters’ sliders, the Mets may aim to boost his slider (and curveball) usage at the cost of his fastball and sinker, which opposing hitters collectively mashed in 2019.
Pirates Hire Don Kelly As Bench Coach
The Pirates have hired Don Kelly to serve as the bench coach on Derek Shelton’s staff, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Kelly, 39, worked the 2019 season as the Astros’ first base coach, a role he accepted after beginning his post-playing career as an assistant in the Tigers’ player development department.
Kelly, a native of the Pittsburgh area, made his Major League debut with the Pirates but spent the majority of his playing days with the Tigers. Kelly will succeed Tom Prince, whom the Tigers hired to manage in their minor league system.
Many view Kelly, who has made a quick ascent up the coaching ranks, to be a future manager, but he’ll have to cut his teeth in the Pittsburgh dugout for the time being. Joining first-time manager Derek Shelton in the dugout, there’s not a lot of experience between the two. However, with the franchise in a transformative state, Shelton and Kelly should have opportunities to grow alongside the players.
Kelly’s hire continues the Pirates’ organizational overhaul under new general manager Ben Cherington, who has been able to hand-pick some of his staff given the coaching turnover. The upper ranks of the Pittsburgh organization will have a drastically different look this offseason and beyond, as Cherington and Shelton will be joined by new team president Travis Williams and assistant GM Steve Sanders.
In one last note on the Pittsburgh coaching staff, Kelly will join coaches Joey Cora, Rick Eckstein, and Justin Meccage, all of whom have been retained, per Adam Berry of MLB.com. Cora and Eckstein will remain in their current posts as third base coach and hitting coach, respectively, while Meccage will shift to a yet-undetermined role after previously serving as an assistant pitching coach. With former pitching coach Ray Searage out, the team has yet to identify a replacement.
Royals Sign Trevor Rosenthal To Minor League Deal
The Royals have signed hard-throwing right-hander Trevor Rosenthal to a minor league deal, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. The deal will pay the 29-year-old $2MM if he makes the team with an additional $2.25MM in performance bonuses, per Worthy. Additionally, Rosenthal will be a non-roster invite to MLB spring training.
Rosenthal famously endured one of the more disappointing 2019 seasons league-wide after signing for $8MM guaranteed with the eventual World Champion Washington Nationals. That the Nats had to come from so far behind in the standings was at least partially attributable to the complete backfiring of their offseason bullpen makeover, which was largely dependent on Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough soaking up the 7th and 8th innings. Neither pitcher finished the season with the Nats.
Rosenthal finished in DC with a 22.74 ERA across 12 appearances before signing a minor league deal with the Tigers. The Tigers released him after 10 ML appearances with a 7.00 ERA, after which he signed another minor league deal with the Yankees to finish out the year.
That said, his stuff remains electric, and if the Royals can help him find the strike zone again, he could once again become a valuable piece of a bullpen. If you’re looking for signs of positive regression, this will be Rosenthal’s second full season since elbow issues cost him all of 2018, he still averaged a clean 98.0 mph on his fastball, and in Kansas City, he will be reunited with manager Mike Matheny, under whom he’d played his whole career prior to 2019. Last year’s atrocity included, Rosenthal boasts a career 3.46 ERA/2.79 FIP in 350 big league games with 12.0 K/9 and 121 career saves.
Winter Meetings Previews: Royals, White Sox
In advance of the winter meetings, let’s take a moment to quickly preview a couple teams from the American League Central…
- The Kansas City Royals will look for value buys on the free agent market, per Lynn Worthy of The Kansas City Star. Given the sale of the team and the managerial transition underway, the Royals have more justification than usual for patience this offseason. With Kansas City, however, there’s often a sense that internal valuations of the talent on hand differs from those of the general public. The Royals continue to present the idea that they are happy with their core, an impression bolstered by the “moon, sun, and stars” type packages the Royals are demanding for players like Whit Merrifield, Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy. Senior VP of Baseball Ops & GM Dayton Moore refined his fence-walking trick recently while saying both, “…we’re very encouraged with where we are based on how our players performed individually last year,” and also, “I think we’ve got to upgrade everywhere, really.” Pitching is definitely a target, and Moore has been active in trade discussions already, enough to have a sense of where trades might happen – though from Moore’s comments, it seems the Royals are disinclined to be major players on the trade market unless opposing GMs become more amenable to Moore’s ask(s). They do have four open spots on the 40-man roster and should be active in the Rule 5 draft, per The Athletic’s Alec Lewis.
- After being spurned by Zack Wheeler, the White Sox remain in the hunt for starting pitching, per MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. Chicago was also among the teams in on Jordan Lyles before the righty signed with the Rangers, tweets the MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Their rotation candidates are currently made up of high-ceiling but largely-unestablished youngsters, fronted by 2019 breakout superstar Lucas Giolito. Speculatively, Dallas Keuchel fits nicely from a culture perspective as the perennially-attention-starved White Sox have already added Yasmani Grandal from the nobody-believes-in-us free agent pool – and they like playing with a chip on their shoulder on the southside. As for position players, Chicago boasts close to a full house now that Grandal and Jose Abreu are officially on board. With prospects Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal expected to play a large portion of 2020 in the big leagues, they have one of the more intriguing groups on that side of the ball. Still, there’s definitely room to tinker around the edges, especially in the outfield, where Luis Alexander Basabe, Daniel Palka, Leury Garcia, Adam Engel, and Luis Gonzalez make up the flexible collection of candidates to join Eloy Jimenez and Robert in the outfield.