Panda For Sale Or Rent
The Giants have some obviously appealing trade candidates. They also have some undesirable contracts. And then there’s the Kung Fu Panda … one of the most unique players in recent memory. He has had some low lows on the ballfield, but he did not start out as some woeful novelty. And he isn’t one now.
We’ve already seen the suggestion floated by some Giants reporters, so … can I interest you in a gently used Pablo Sandoval?
Let’s start on the contract side. Sandoval is way too expensive. But he’s also dirt cheap! He’s earning a cool $19MM this year. The Red Sox are paying all but $545K of it. They’re also on the hook for a $5MM buyout next year, at which time Sandoval will be back on the open market and searching for a much more modest contract than the $95MM deal he inked in November of 2014. It doesn’t get any cheaper than this, folks. You’re paying at least that much to fill the roster spot regardless, so this rental player comes with an effective cash cost of absolutely nothing.
The question remains … do you really want a rental Panda? If so, how much value should you really give to make this happen?
If you’ve followed the Giants from afar, you might assume that Sandoval has slumped with most of the rest of the roster. In fact, he’s leading the team in wRC+ (minimum 10 plate appearances) and fWAR (he’s tied with Buster Posey at 1.0 apiece, but Sandoval has done it in just over two-thirds the plate appearances).
Yep, it has been a vintage performance thus far — a deep cut, in fact. Sandoval hasn’t produced at these kinds of levels since way back in 2011, before he settled in as a solidly above-average but comfortably sub-elite hitter and then ultimately collapsed in Boston. Through 109 plate appearances, the switch-hitting Sandoval carries a .288/.321/.596 slash with seven home runs. He’s delivering well-graded glovework at the hot corner. Oh, and he has not only filled in at first and second in recent years, but he’s even making occasional scoreless appearances on the mound just for kicks.
No money down. Zero maintenance. Versatile. Stout. Below Kelley Blue Book?!
That’s the dealer’s pitch, anyway. Almost sounds too good to be true. Just to be safe, let’s check the Carfax and have a gander underneath the hood …
Hmm well there is one catch you ought to be aware of right off the bat. Sandoval is a switch-hitter, true, but he has been absolutely dreadful against left-handed pitching. And that’s really not a new thing, if we’re being honest. But hey … at least he’s good on the heavy side of the platoon!
Yeah, okay, you’re a little worried about the sample size? If we’re focusing on what he has done against righties … yeah, it’s eighty plate appearances of a thousand-plus OPS hitting. But yikes … a 4.8% walk rate to go with a 27.4% strikeout rate? A .360 BABIP is the only thing supporting his .345 OBP. And that 31.8% HR/FB rate … not gonna last. He’s feasting on some pitchers that aren’t all at the tops of their games. Hard to put too much stock in this kind of showing from a part-time player.
To be fair, Sandoval is legitimately ripping the baseball right now, at least when it is being thrown at him from someone’s right arm. Statcast it. 14.9% barrel rate … about triple what he was averaging during the Statcast Era. 45.2% hard-contact rate. The results are outstripping even that impressive contact (.385 wOBA vs. .362 wOBA), but not by a ridiculous margin. He’s hitting the ball to the opposite field more than ever, which perhaps hints at a change in approach that is helping to produce these results.
That’s all well and good, but the bottom line is that it’s just not a terribly sustainable formula. At his best, in his first stint with the Giants, Sandoval was a model of K/BB consistency, with solid walk rates (average for that era; around 8%) and low strikeout rates (between 13.1% and 13.5% in every season from 2009 and 2014). Now he’s at half that walk rate and twice that strikeout rate — well on the wrong side of current league average in both respects. Sandoval’s 15.9% swinging-strike rate is by far the highest of his career. The newly aggressive approach is working for now, but it doesn’t feel like it’ll last.
It’s not hard to imagine the Panda changing hands this summer. He could be a functional piece for the right team. But my expectation is that it’ll be for a rather minimal trade return, even though an acquiring team won’t have to come out of pocket for his services. You may be a buyer, but I’m walking away.
Miguel Cabrera To Undergo MRI On Knee
Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera left the team’s game against the Braves on Friday with right knee soreness, manager Ron Gardenhire told Chris McCosky of the Detroit News and other reporters. Cabrera will undergo an MRI.
“I felt it at the plate the last three games — I didn’t use my legs too much,” Cabrera said (via McCosky).
Thanks in part to his knee pain, Cabrera failed to reach base in any of his three plate appearances Friday. The future Hall of Famer, 36, has trudged through an uncharacteristically difficult season to this point. Cabrera owns a .284/.356/.356 line, good for a 93 wRC+, through 219 trips to the plate. The longtime 30-home run threat has shown almost no power along the way, with two HRs and the majors’ third-worst ISO (.072).
While Cabrera’s performance has been a letdown, the durability he has shown thus far has been encouraging. After missing all but 38 games a year ago because of a ruptured left biceps tendon, he has come back to appear in each of Detroit’s 54 contests this season. This injury could snap that streak, though, and would leave the Tigers to choose among Brandon Dixon, Niko Goodrum and John Hicks to handle first.
Poll: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Next Contract
Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu could have shopped his services to all 30 major league teams last offseason, but the career-long Dodger opted against going to the open market. Instead, Ryu accepted a $17.9MM qualifying offer to stay in Los Angeles, in part because of a long list of injury troubles that could have hampered his earning power. Dating back to 2013, the Korean-born Ryu’s first season in the majors, he has missed significant time because of arm problems (including shoulder and elbow surgeries) as well as foot and groin issues. The latter forced Ryu to the 10-day IL earlier this season, but he got off to a strong start before then and has come back far better since returning April 20.
After throwing just 82 1/3 innings last season, Ryu has already amassed 73 frames through the first two months of 2019. Ryu shut out the Mets over 7 2/3 innings on Thursday to finish May with an incredible four scoreless starts in six tries. Across 45 2/3 innings this month, Ryu pitched to a near-spotless 0.59 ERA with 36 strikeouts against a meager three walks. He now owns easily the majors’ leading ERA (1.48) and walk rate (0.62 per nine, with 8.51 K/9). His success in the run prevention and walk categories doesn’t look like a fluke either. Ryu, after all, put up a 1.97 ERA with 1.64 BB/9 (against 9.73 K/9) during his injury-shortened 2018.
Even if Ryu isn’t quite as great as his ERA indicates, his 2.78 FIP over the past season-plus is befitting of a front-line starter and ranks sixth among all pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings since 2018. He’s behind a pretty good quintet of Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Gerrit Cole in that regard. DeGrom, Sale and Corbin have each scored nine-figure contracts going back to the offseason, while Cole figures to join them when he reaches free agency during the upcoming winter.
Ryu’s also on schedule to reach the open market, though he’s not going to cash in to the same extent as Cole. Concerns over Ryu’s durability figure to combine with the soon-to-be 33-year-old’s age and 2013-17 performance (when he was good but not great) to cap his earning power. However, he can look in his own locker room to find a lefty who overcame injury questions, advanced age and a far shorter track record than Ryu’s to recently score a large payday in free agency. That’s Rich Hill, whom the Dodgers re-signed to a three-year, $48MM guarantee heading into 2017 – his age-37 season.
Free agency worked out for Hill, but one would be remiss to ignore the fact that the process has taken an unfriendly turn for certain hurlers since he landed his payday. Jake Arrieta received less guaranteed cash than expected in 2018, while Gio Gonzalez settled for a minor league deal entering this season and Dallas Keuchel remains unsigned. At the same time, however, Nathan Eovaldi, Alex Cobb, J.A. Happ, Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn did surmount obstacles of their own en route to $30MM-plus guarantees in the previous two offseasons.
We’ll use the $30MM number as a jumping-off point for this poll, but if Ryu continues to perform like a front-line option and stay reasonably healthy, he could blow past it.
(Poll link for app users)
How much do you expect Ryu to earn on his next contract?
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$60MM or more 30% (1,622)
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$40MM-$49MM 27% (1,476)
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$50MM-$59MM 23% (1,256)
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$30MM-$39MM 19% (1,026)
Total votes: 5,380
Progress Report: Pittsburgh’s Return For Gerrit Cole
In one of the most significant trades of the 2017-18 offseason, the Pirates sent right-hander Gerrit Cole to the Astros for a four-player package. The move put an end to nonstop trade rumors centering on Cole, who had been a Pirate since they selected him first overall in the 2011 draft. Cole largely lived up to the billing in Pittsburgh, but with the Pirates being a low-budget team and Scott Boras functioning as the hurler’s agent, the club had little choice but to deal him. Cole was down to his penultimate year of control, and the Pirates knew they weren’t going to be able to prevent him from reaching free agency after 2019.
Cole has excelled with the Astros since the deal went down, though even they haven’t locked him up to an extension. The soon-to-be 29-year-old is likely to reach the open market after the season, when he could be the top player available. In the meantime, Cole could help guide an elite Houston team to a World Series championship. On the other hand, the Pirates haven’t contended since they traded Cole (in fairness, nor did they in his final two seasons in the Steel City). At 27-28, it appears the Buccos are on their way to a fourth consecutive year without a playoff berth. The package they got for Cole hasn’t really helped matters.
Righty Joe Musgrove, arguably the headliner from Pittsburgh’s point of view, came over after a year in which he moved to the Astros’ bullpen and stood out. But the Pirates shifted Musgrove back to the rotation, and aside from a horrendous showing in May, he has resembled a decent big league starter. While Musgrove has given up 27 earned runs on 38 hits in 30 innings this month, his overall numbers as a Pirate are fine. The 26-year-old has given Pittsburgh 30 starts and 178 1/3 frames of 4.29 ERA/3.60 FIP ball with 7.57 K/9, 2.12 BB/9 and a 44.8 percent groundball rate dating back to his arrival.
In the aggregate, Musgrove has been more the solution than the problem for the Pirates. He’s also on a pre-arbitration salary this season and still has three years of arb control thereafter. Realistically, there’s not a lot to complain about with Musgrove, though the same hasn’t been true of the other three players the Pirates got back.
The hope was that big, hard-throwing righty Michael Feliz would emerge as a lights-out member of the Pirates’ bullpen right away. They’re still waiting. Feliz managed a 4.13 FIP and 10.38 K/9 in 47 2/3 innings last season, but he walked more than four batters per nine and limped to a 5.66 ERA. To make matters worse, the 25-year-old has spent most of this season in Triple-A. Across the 12 innings Feliz has logged in the majors in 2019, he has surrendered 11 earned runs on 12 hits and nine walks (with an impressive 16 strikeouts, it should be noted).
Outfielder Jason Martin, who was the Astros’ 15th-ranked prospect at the time of the trade, totaled the first 38 plate appearances of his major league career earlier this season. He didn’t produce much, though, nor has the 23-year-old acquitted himself all that well at the minors’ highest level thus far. Martin got a promotion after crushing Double-A pitching last season, but he’s the owner of a meager .225/.284/.371 line in 338 Triple-A attempts.
That leaves 26-year-old third baseman Colin Moran, who has garnered the most playing time of anyone Pittsburgh got back for Cole. The former top 100 prospect has been just a guy with the Pirates – a league-average hitter whose WAR suggests he’s something between an average player and a replacement-level performer. Over 618 trips to the plate as a Pirate, Moran has hit a respectable but unexciting .274/.335/.414 (102 wRC+) with 17 home runs and 1.1 fWAR.
Including Moran’s contributions, the Pirates have gotten 4.7 fWAR out of the Cole trade so far. Last July, seven months after that deal, the Pirates traded two hyped young players (righty Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Austin Meadows) to Tampa Bay for a potential Cole replacement righty Chris Archer. That transaction has worked out far worse for the Pirates to this point, as Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs recently explained.
The Cole and Archer moves have left the Pirates with a bunch of controllable parts, but nobody from the group looks like much to write home about so far. At the same time, the swaps stripped the organization of a trio of players who have been high-end contributors elsewhere. Two of them, Glasnow and Meadows, are under control for the foreseeable future. These are mistakes a small-budget team can ill afford to make, and they help explain why the Pirates are stuck in neutral.
Pirates Halt Rehab Assignment Of Keone Kela
The Pirates have halted the rehab assignment of righty Keone Kela, the club informed reporters including Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic (Twitter link). He has been sidelined since early May with a shoulder issue that hasn’t yet fully dissipated.
Kela made one appearance at Triple-A on May 25th, at which time it seemed he was not far from a return to the majors. But he obviously did not bounce back and progress as hoped. There’s still no reason to believe that Kela is dealing with a major injury. His handling to this point suggests that’s not really a concern.
The team says recurrent discomfort has led to the decision to pull Kela from the assignment. He’ll be shut down for about ten days before any further steps are decided upon. What will happen at that point — reexamination, resumption of throwing, etc. — isn’t really clear.
It seems safe to presume that the Bucs will go without Kela for a decent while longer, even if he does show fairly quick improvement and is ready to begin ramping back up after ten days. He’s a reliever, which limits the need to build up innings, but the club will want to avoid any further setbacks by moving too rapidly. Once he does resume his rehab assignment, Kela will have thirty days to complete it.
Kela’s absence stings with the Pirates trying to weather a rough stretch for the rotation. The 26-year-old was not off to the best start to the present season, with a 4.63 ERA in 11 2/3 innings. His swinging-strike rate is down quite a bit and he had already allowed three long balls. Still, that’s a short sample and Kela is coming off of a very strong 2018 campaign.
Carlos Carrasco Has Gone Backward
Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco was somewhat quietly one of the majors’ most dominant starters from 2014-18. During that 807 2/3-inning, 131-start span, Carrasco recorded a 3.31 ERA/3.03 FIP with 10.18 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, a 48.0 percent groundball rate and upward of 20 wins above replacement. That five-year stretch convinced the Indians to keep and extend Carrasco in the offseason, when there were rumblings they could offload starters, signing him to a team-friendly contract. Two months into the season, though, the back-to-back-to-back AL Central champions haven’t resembled their previous selves, in part because Carrasco hasn’t managed the same results as he did in prior years.
The 32-year-old Carrasco has pitched to a 4.98 ERA through 65 innings, averaging just over five frames per start after logging better than six an outing during the previous half-decade. Carrasco’s 4.07 FIP is nowhere near as underwhelming as his ERA, but it’s still a run higher than he and the Indians are accustomed to. His strikeout and walk rates are phenomenal (10.94 K/9, 1.52 BB/9), and his .353 batting average on balls in play further suggests positive regression in the run prevention department. Aside from those figures, though, there are legit reasons for concern regarding Carrasco.
It begins with a newfound difficulty keeping the ball out of the air. Carrasco’s groundball percentage has nosedived to a career-worst 39.2, leading to personal worsts in fly ball rate (38.7) and launch angle against (14.2). Surprise, surprise: Home run troubles have come with those changes. Carrasco’s yielding gopher balls on 20 percent of flies, up from 12.7 during his aforementioned five-year stretch of excellence. It’s not just HRs, though – Carrasco’s surrendering more damaging contact in general. He ranks in the bottom 8 percent of the league or worse in exit velocity against (90.9), barrel percentage against (14.1) and hard-hit rate (47.3 percent), according to Statcast, which also assigns Carrasco a below-average expected weighted on-base average against (.329, compared to .280 in 2018).
So what’s causing Carrasco to falter? His biggest problem seems to be his changeup, a pitch he has relied on between 16 and 18 percent of the time dating back to last season. Batters have posted a .432/.377 xwOBA versus the offering this season after mustering a matching (and weak) .224/.224 against it a year ago. As is typically the case with changeups, Carrasco has primarily used it in an effort to quell opposite-handed hitters. They’ve caused the most damage against Carrasco, though, having slashed .287/.331/.574 for a .371 wOBA.
In essence, the average lefty swinger who has faced Carrasco in 2019 has hit like Trevor Story or Matt Chapman. That wasn’t the case last year, when lefties managed a Joe Panik-esque .302 wOBA off Carrasco. It’s happening in part because Carrasco isn’t locating his change as precisely as he did in 2018, keeping it too close to the middle of the plate (and inside versus lefties). That wasn’t true last season. Carrasco has had a similar problem with his curveball, having allowed a ludicrous .908/.719 wOBA/xwOBA when throwing it, though he has only turned to the pitch 2.3 percent of the time (down 5 percent from last year, when it was much more effective).
Cleveland’s a 28-28 team with a minus-12 run differential, already facing a 9 1/2-game deficit in the division it has owned in recent seasons. Considering the myriad issues the Indians are facing – including the weeks-long absences of injured righties Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger, not to mention fellow RHP Trevor Bauer‘s own decline – a middling version of Carrasco is one of the last things they needed. That’s what the Indians have gotten, though, and unless Carrasco returns to form, catching the first-place Twins is going to be an even tougher task.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Victor Arano Out For 10 To 12 Weeks After Surgery
Phillies reliever Victor Arano may not be able to make it back this year, though the club isn’t yet ruling out that possibility. Skipper Gabe Kapler told reporters, including Matt Gelb of The Athletic (via Twitter), that Arano’s rehab will require a layoff of at least ten to twelve weeks after his recent elbow surgery.
That timeline leaves only the narrowest of openings for a 2019 return for the 24-year-old right-hander. The most optimistic scenario would see Arano cleared to pick up a baseball in mid-August. He’d still need to begin a throwing program and build up his arm strength thereafter, all without experiencing any setbacks.
Though the Phils can still hope for the best, they’ll ultimately need to approach the summer trade period on the assumption that Arano is not going to make it back this year. While it was known already that he’d miss some time, the extent of the damage wasn’t clear.
Arano may not be a household name, but he’s a quality reliever who delivered big value on a league-minimum salary. Through 74 2/3 MLB frames, he carries a 2.65 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. He sits at a sturdy but unexceptional 94 mph but carries a smooth 16.6% swinging-strike rate owing to an excellent and oft-utilized slider.
Today’s news is only the latest blow to an increasingly battered and bruised Phillies bullpen. Rare is the contender that doesn’t consider mid-season relief upgrades, but this club seems in particular need of some pen acquisitions. It has been a middle-of-the-road unit to this point of the season, with a nice showing from Hector Neris in the closer’s role and mostly passable efforts otherwise, but there’s ample uncertainty with regard to some of the key veterans and more promising young arms.
Revisiting The Best Fits For Craig Kimbrel
With the draft just a few days away, it’s likely that free agents Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel will (finally) come off the board in the near future. Once the calendar flips from June 2 to June 3, clubs will no longer be forced to surrender a draft pick to sign either former All-Star.
Heading into the season and even early in the year, we looked at plenty of potential landing spots for both. But as the draft inched closer and the two remained unsigned, it became increasingly clear that they could try their hand at the 2014 Kendrys Morales gambit and sit out into June in order to open their market.
Now, not only are Kimbrel and Keuchel once again a relevant topic — they’re met with different markets than they encountered during Spring Training. With a third of the season in the books, teams have a better understanding of how they fit into their divisional and Wild Card landscapes. Injuries have altered the construction of rosters throughout the league. Some fits still make sense, just as much if not more than they did two or three months ago, but that’s not the case across the board. Trade possibilities are also beginning to take shape, creating new and different competition for these hurlers.
Let’s take a look at the most plausible on-paper fits for Kimbrel:
Teams with obvious offseason payroll limitations
The Pirates are in the mix in the NL Central, but I don’t think I need to expand upon the reasons that we won’t be seeing a free agent reliever with Kimbrel’s anticipated price tag land in Pittsburgh. The Indians are trying to claw back into the AL Central race and are right in the thick of the Wild Card picture, but they spent the winter cutting payroll. Kimbrel won’t be in the cards.
The Cubs could clearly use Kimbrel, but their offseason payroll constraints were clear. Maybe they saved some money for in-season moves, but it’s rare to dig through the couch cushions for change and pull out a hundred dollar bill. We’re barely three months past owner Tom Ricketts declaring he had no more money to spend, and even if the Cubs aren’t paying Ben Zobrist’s full salary (which isn’t fully clear), they’re near the second luxury tax bracket. From a roster perspective, the Cubs are a perfect fit, but it’d require a pretty sizable pivot from ownership.
May be close to their payroll limit
Back in the offseason I delved into why the Red Sox aren’t really a fit given the huge luxury tax hit that would accompany Kimbrel there. Those same luxury concerns are still present. Would the Wilpon family be willing to push the Mets’ payroll further into franchise-record territory than it already is (before even factoring in possible July trades)? It’s hard to envision. The Reds have had a great month to prevent themselves from falling out of the NL Central race after an awful start, but their payroll is already $25MM higher than last season’s and $11MM higher than it ever has been before. Even if they were to add to the payroll, the bullpen isn’t their most pressing area of concern. The Athletics didn’t necessarily spend a ton this winter, but they did spend enough to push their payroll to a franchise-record $92MM. Kimbrel would help them, particularly with Blake Treinen slipping a bit, but I’m not buying the A’s buying Kimbrel. I imagine the Cardinals to be in a similar boat, given their own record payroll. They’ve been bitten by most of their recent bullpen expenditures as well (Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson, Greg Holland, Andrew Miller).
.500 clubs and fringe Wild Card teams
There’s a host of teams hovering around .500 and sitting within a stone’s throw of a Wild Card spot, but a more clear-cut divisional contender would have an easier time luring Kimbrel, who surely wants a shot at postseason redemption. You could make a case for any of the White Sox, Rangers, Angels, D-backs, Padres or Rockies, and there are indeed valid ways to see how he’d fit with some of those clubs, but it’s tough to classify any as a favorite.
Two months ago? Maybe! Now? Nope!
The Nationals, owners of an almost impossibly inept bullpen, get this category all to themselves. Kimbrel to the Nats was heavily rumored in spring but always felt like a bit of a stretch given that he’d push them back over the luxury tax for a third straight season. However, entering the year you could see why the Nationals might be willing to make that plunge. This was a team designed to contend in what was expected to be an ultra-competitive division, after all. Fast forward to the end of May, and the Nats sit eight games below .500 with a nine-game deficit in the NL East. Kimbrel alone isn’t fixing a bullpen ERA that somehow begins with the number 7. And, if you’re Kimbrel, do you really want to sign with a team that’s closer to the last-place Marlins than to a Wild Card spot?
Do they even need him?
Of course every bullpen can technically use a reliever of Kimbrel’s caliber, but he’s more a luxury for some contenders than others. The Yankees don’t need bullpen help even with Dellin Betances still sidelined and Chad Green doing very-non-Chad-Green things. Kimbrel would strengthen a strength and set them up for another deadly postseason relief corps, and the Yankees can afford him. The rotation is a greater need, though (cough cough Dallas Keuchel). Given that the Yankees will pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar they spend on a free agent at this point, they seem likelier to spend on needs than luxuries.
The luxury tax point doesn’t apply to the Astros, but the Houston ‘pen leads the Majors in ERA, FIP and xFIP. They’ve had some infield injuries and hiccups at the back of the rotation, so they have greater needs. Houston is already near a record level payroll and is reasonably close ($17MM) to the luxury tax line. Adding Kimbrel would limit their future maneuverability if ownership prefers to stay south of that line.
The best fits (listed alphabetically)
- Braves: Fans in Atlanta have been pleading for the front office to add Kimbrel for months, and the fit is more logical than ever. Closer Arodys Vizcaino was lost for the season while the majority of the arms on which the Braves leaned in 2018 have struggled through poor seasons. Dan Winkler‘s ERA is north of 6.00. Shane Carle is in Triple-A. Jesse Biddle is now a Mariner. Atlanta’s most consistent reliever has been Luke Jackson, whom they outrighted off the 40-man roster on three different occasions in 2018. Currently, the Braves hold the second Wild Card spot in the NL and are three games back of the division-leading Phillies. General manager Alex Anthopoulos famously talked about the “flexibility” they had after going the bargain route in right field by re-signing Nick Markakis, but they’ve yet to actually take advantage of that payroll space.
- Brewers: It’s possible that the Brewers should be included in the previous “close to their payroll limit” section, but they were linked to Kimbrel frequently late in Spring Training. Milwaukee’s payroll is at $122MM, which isn’t much relative to other clubs but is $18MM more than the Brewers had spent on a single season prior to 2019. The bullpen hasn’t been the same juggernaut it was last season, in part due to the loss of Corey Knebel for the season (Tommy John surgery). A Kimbrel/Josh Hader/Jeremy Jeffress trio in the late innings sounds formidable, to be sure. The question is whether the Brewers would be willing to push an already record payroll to the point where they’d outbid the rest of the field.
- Dodgers: With the exception of Kenley Jansen, the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers just haven’t spent at the top of the market at any position in free agency. That said, his price has to be down from the offseason, and the winter pickup of Joe Kelly hasn’t panned out, thus leaving L.A. with a mediocre relief corps. They’d likely pay a 20 percent luxury tax on some of the money it’d take to land Kimbrel. A team with pockets this deep and a pedestrian bullpen makes the fit logical in a vacuum, even if context suggests that it’s not likely.
- Phillies: Like the Braves, the Phillies have been one of the longest-mentioned fits for Kimbrel. The need for a high-end reliever in Philadelphia might be greater now than at any point over the past caliber year; as we explored recently, the Phillies have nearly an entire bullpen’s worth of quality relievers on the injured list. A resurgent Hector Neris and sophomore Seranthony Dominguez are leading the charge in the late innings, but there’s certainly room to add Kimbrel to this injury-ravaged relief unit. That said, there are still indications that Philly is only interested in Kimbrel on a one-year deal, and that’s probably not going to cut it.
- Rays: Winners of six straight games and owners of MLB’s third-best run differential, the Rays have been one of the game’s best overall teams through the end of May. They’re a half game behind the Yankees in the AL East and are firmly in control of the top AL Wild Card spot as of this writing. Payroll concerns are always going to dominate discussions regarding the Rays, but they entered the year at just $60MM in payroll — one year after they opened the season at $76MM. Those sums may induce laughter from fans of big-market clubs, but the 2019 Rays roster is no joke. When they’re in this close a race with the Yankees for the division crown, every win is vital. The difference between a Wild Card play-in and a guaranteed ALDS berth is monumental, and Kimbrel should help them keep pace.
- Twins: Minnesota managed to reduce its payroll while still adding the likes of Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop — Joe Mauer‘s retirement and the expiration of Ervin Santana‘s contract helped — which set them up as a credible threat to the Indians. They’ve been more than a credible threat, though, racing out to one of the best records in baseball and opening an enormous 10-game lead in the AL Central. Adding Kimbrel would push the Twins to a new franchise-record payroll, but not by that much; for a team that is now selling out Target Field after years of futility (excepting their 2017 Wild Card run), there’s every reason to make an aggressive move. Back in January, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine spoke of “investing appropriately” and “striking” while the window is “wide open.” Whether Kimbrel is the “appropriate” investment is up to their discretion, but it’s hard to imagine a more open window than a 10-game lead in a division with three rebuilding clubs.
Angels Select John Curtiss, Designate Matt Ramsey
The Angels have selected the contract of reliever John Curtiss. He’ll take the roster spot of fellow righty Matt Ramsey, who was designated for assignment. To create an active roster opening, the club optioned down Jake Jewell.
Curtiss, 26, came up to the majors for a single appearance earlier this year and was promptly designated. He has also seen limited MLB action in each of the prior two campaigns. He was carrying a 5.91 ERA in 21 1/3 innings over 13 outings to open the year at Triple-A, recording 29 strikeouts but also issuing 13 walks.
Ramsey is following the course of Curtiss’s first look. He spun a scoreless frame of work after being summoned for his first trip to the majors, but now finds himself ticketed for a return to Triple-A on outright assignment — unless another team puts in a claim. Like Curtiss, Ramsey has been charged with more than five earned per nine during his time this year at the offensively charged environment of Salt Lake City. He posted a 15:8 K/BB ratio in 13 2/3 innings there and does have a history of racking up swings and misses in the upper minors.
3 Minor League Signings Helping Drive Rangers’ Offense
For Major League Baseball teams, there is essentially no risk in signing a player to a minor league contract. Cognizant of that, the Rangers were aggressive on the non-guaranteed market in the offseason, inking 20 players to minors contracts. Two months into the regular season, three of those players – Hunter Pence, Logan Forsythe and Danny Santana – have helped lead the Rangers’ offense to the game’s third-most runs (306) and a 10th-place ranking in wRC+ (103).
Pence, the most proven member of the trio, starred for much of his career with the Astros and Giants before recent struggles forced him to settle for a cheap pact with the Rangers. But the longtime outfielder looked done during the previous two years in San Francisco, especially when he hit .226/.258/.332 (59 wRC+) with four home runs and a .106 ISO in 248 plate appearances last season. To his credit, though, Pence spent the offseason working to turn things around, as he explained to Jessica Kleinschmidt of NBC Sports California in December. You may have scoffed at his efforts back then, chalking them up to a washed-up player grasping at straws, but it now looks as if Pence has discovered the Fountain of Youth during his age-36 season (Pence de Leon?).
Through 153 trips to the plate with the Rangers, Pence has slashed .295/.346/.619 with 11 homers and a .324 ISO. He has already given the Rangers 1.1 fWAR after combining for minus-0.2 with the Giants from 2017-18. Pence’s revival certainly doesn’t look like a product of luck or ballpark – there’s nothing abnormal in his batting average on balls in play or K/BB ratio, and he has logged far better numbers outside hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.
Pence is pulling more pitches, hitting more fly balls and making better contact, all of which has helped opened the door to his power resurgence, while swinging and missing less and chasing fewer pitches out of the zone. Pence’s average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives sits at a strong 96.6 mph, up from 91.5 in 2018, and his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA has spiked from .255/.267 to .401/.387. In the xwOBA department, Pence has gone from hitting like Joey Rickard to resembling Juan Soto. It’s an amazing one-year turnaround.
If there’s one knock on the 2019 version of Pence, it’s that he has largely been limited to the designated hitter spot at his advanced age. Forsythe, on the other hand, has spent the season in the field, registering most of his appearances at first base but also playing at least five games at shortstop, third and second. Now 32, Forsythe was one of baseball’s most valuable second basemen with the Rays from 2015-16, but he began falling off the next season and then cratered last year between the Twins and Dodgers. It looks as if Forsythe’s back after joining Texas on a deal in late February, though. Like Pence, a fellow right-handed hitter, Forsythe has offered better production outside of Arlington while posing a legitimate threat against pitchers of either handedness.
Forsythe has opened his Rangers career with a line of .309/.414/.485 (136 wRC+) and 1.2 fWAR in 163 attempts, far outdoing the minus-0.2 he posted in that category last season. An unsustainable .406 BABIP has aided Forsythe’s cause, but he has made real strides otherwise. While Forsythe’s power hasn’t been sensational (three homers, .176 ISO), he’s well ahead of his paltry 2018 output in that regard (two HRs, .059 ISO in 416 PA). As with Pence, a greater emphasis on pulling and elevating the ball has led to Forsythe’s uptick in the power department. His average exit velocity has climbed from 89.6 mph on liners/flies last year to 92.8 this season. Forsythe’s also swinging at far fewer pitches than ever outside the strike zone. Those factors have assisted in a strong .390/.362 wOBA/xwOBA, an enormous step up from the .274/.277 Forsythe recorded in 2018.
And then there’s the 28-year-old Santana, who was a 3.9-fWAR player with the Twins during a 430-PA debut in 2014. Until this season, that looked like a total fluke (and perhaps it still does). Santana combined for minus-2.3 fWAR from 2015-18 with the Twins and Braves, though he’s back above water this year. Granted, with a 0.6 fWAR over 125 trips to the plate, Santana’s no world-beater. Still, that’s more than the Rangers could have reasonably expected when they took a flier on Santana in December. Since then, the switch hitter has slashed .296/.339/.478 (107 wRC+) with four HRs and six steals in 125 PA, also showing off his defensive flexibility by appearing multiple times at first, second, short and in center field.
Santana, however, could have a tougher time than Pence and Forsythe maintaining his numbers. In fact, they’ve already started to drop over the past month. The fact that he’s running ugly strikeout and walk rates (4.0 percent versus 29.6) and enjoying a .400 BABIP doesn’t offer a ton of hope going forward. Beyond that, Santana’s struggling against left-handed pitchers and hitting noticeably worse on the road. That said, there’s little difference between Santana’s wOBA (.347) and xwoBA (.341).
Should Santana continue to impress the Rangers through the season, they’ll have a chance to keep him via arbitration for the next two years. Otherwise, they could easily say goodbye to him. Meanwhile, Pence and Forsythe – two impending free agents – could either stick with the surprising Rangers (27-27) through the season if they’re in contention or emerge as summer trade chips if the team falls out of the race. Texas is in a win-win situation with all three of these minor league pickups, which is surely what general manager Jon Daniels hoped for when he added them over the winter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.