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Blue Jays To Promote Danny Jansen, Sean Reid-Foley

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9:01AM: The Jays have officially announced that Jansen has been promoted (via their team PR Twitter), with Solarte going on the 10-day DL with his right oblique injury.

8:05AM: The Blue Jays are expected to call up top catching prospect Danny Jansen, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports.  Jansen will take the roster spot of Yangervis Solarte, who suffered an oblique injury in yesterday’s game and is very likely headed for the disabled list.  In addition to Jansen, the Jays are also expected to promote right-hander Sean Reid-Foley for his Major League debut on Monday in a start against the Royals.

Jansen, 23, was Toronto’s pick in the 16th round of the 2013 amateur draft.  Thanks in part to a pair of hand injuries, Jansen’s first few pro seasons were fairly uneventful, though he broke out as a prospect to watch after a big 2017 season that saw him rise from high-A ball to Triple-A Buffalo.  Jansen has continued to impress at the Triple-A level this year, hitting .275/.390/.473 with 12 homers over 360 plate appearances, racking up nearly as many walks (44) as strikeouts (49).

This quick development earned Jansen some notice in the prospect charts, with Baseball America’s midseason top-100 prospect ranking placing Jansen 71st, while MLB.com ranked him 73rd in its own top 100.  The scouting reports on both sites give Jansen more credit for his offense than his defense, citing his good contact skills, plate discipline, and power potential (which BA says could lead to 10-15 homers a year at the big league level).  From a defensive standpoint, Jansen has improved to the point that he looks at least solid at many aspects of catching, though in the words of MLB.com’s report, “his catch-and-throw skills may never be better than average.”

The Jays already have Russell Martin and Luke Maile as their regular catching combo, though Martin’s ability to play second and third base will allow him to essentially take over Solarte’s infield duties while Jansen gets regular playing time behind the plate.  This early audition will help the Jays determine if Jansen could be ready for the starting job as early as next season, which could make Maile an expendable piece this winter.  Martin’s $20MM salary for 2019 makes him essentially unmovable in a trade, so unless the Blue Jays are willing to just eat that contract, it is more likely Martin will be kept around as a veteran mentor for the young Jansen.  (Martin’s ability to play a hybrid backup catcher/infielder role could also make Toronto more apt to pass on Solarte’s $5.5MM club option for 2019.)

Reid-Foley was himself a member of top-100 prospect lists prior to the 2017 season (MLB.com 64th, Baseball America 75th, Baseball Prospectus 85th) before his stock fell posting a 5.09 ERA over 132 2/3 Double-A innings last year.  He bounced back this season to pitch much better in Double-A and earned himself a promotion, with the righty then posting a 3.50 ERA, 10.3 K/9, and 3.48 K/BB rate over 82 1/3 frames for Triple-A Buffalo.

Reid-Foley was a second-round pick in the 2014 draft, and the 22-year-old has long been seen as a future member of the Blue Jays rotation prior to his hiccups in 2017.  Davidi notes that the decision to promote Reid-Foley was made “after days of deliberations,” though with the Jays well out of the playoff race and short on reliable starters to eat innings for the rest of the year, it makes sense to give Reid-Foley his first taste of Major League action.  With at least two rotation spots up for grabs in the 2019 rotation, a good showing over the next six weeks will give Reid-Foley a leg up on earning a job next season.

NL Notes: Myers, Wright, Strasburg, Phils, Ramos, Eflin

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Padres outfielder Wil Myers will play third base in a rehab game on Sunday, Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets, and it’s “virtually certain” that he’ll start at the hot corner when he returns from a short DL stint on Monday, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. If true, it would continue a nomadic pro career around the diamond for Myers, a former catcher prospect who has primarily lined up at first base and in the outfield in the majors. It’s anyone’s guess whether the 27-year-old Myers will be able to handle third base from a defensive standpoint at the MLB level, but he does seem to have the bat for it. The third basemen the Padres have used this year rank 23rd in the majors in fWAR (0.9) and 26th in wRC+ (83).

More from the National League…

  • Mets third baseman David Wright will begin a rehab assignment Sunday, and there’s optimism the long-injured captain will actually return to the major leagues. Manager Mickey Callaway told Tim Healey of Newsday and other reporters Saturday that, in his opinion, “there’s a very good chance” Wright will suit up again for the Mets. Upper body injuries have kept the 35-year-old Wright off a major league diamond since May 2016. He’s signed through 2020 on an eight-year, $138MM contract.
  • The Nationals hope to have injured right-hander Stephen Strasburg back in their rotation before Aug. 21-23, a key series against division-rival Philadelphia, Jamal Collier of MLB.com writes. Strasburg, out since July 26 with a pinched nerve in his neck, threw a successful 64-pitch bullpen session Saturday.
  • The Phillies announced that catcher Wilson Ramos will begin a rehab assignment at the Single-A level on Sunday. Philadelphia acquired Ramos from Tampa Bay at the July 31 non-waiver deadline, but he still hasn’t debuted with his new team. Ramos hasn’t played since July 14, in fact, as he has been dealing with a hamstring strain. The 31-year-old had been amid a quality season at the time and could be a nice reinforcement for the Phillies, who are neck and neck with the Braves for the NL East title. However, it’s not clear whether Ramos is all that close to returning. “From a results standpoint, we just want to see him healthy,” manager Gabe Kapler said (via Katie Woo of MLB.com). “One of the ways to get there is making sure he has the reps under his belt, get a little timing and rhythm at the plate, and then he’s ready to roll.”
  • Sticking with the Phillies, the club optioned right-hander Zach Eflin to Triple-A on Saturday to clear 25-man roster room for newly acquired first baseman Justin Bour. Given that Eflin has been a key part of the Phillies’ rotation this year, his demotion’s only temporary, but it’s one that will cost him nearly $30K and 10 days of big league service time, Matt Gelb of The Athletic notes (subscription required). While Eflin was “professional” about the decision, according to Kapler, the hurler’s representative is unhappy about the transaction. As part of a statement issued to Gelb, agent Tom O’Connell called the move “tremendously disappointing” and added, “While the club may feel that they are doing what’s best for the organization, they also lose sight of the human element and how it will affect the player.”

Central Notes: Scooter, Encarnacion, Fulmer, Smyly

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Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett was pushing for a contract extension back in May, but no deal has come together since. Nevertheless, the 28-year-old – who’s only controllable for another season – told Bill Ladson of MLB.com this week that he remains hopeful he’ll continue his career in his hometown of Cincinnati. Asked whether he’d still like an extension, Gennett said: “Yeah. For me not to have an extension — I don’t think would make a whole lot of sense for it to not to happen at some point. What I’m willing to do for this team, for the fans in Cincinnati and being from Cincinnati, it’s kind of the perfect formula for me.” Gennett spoke more about his future Saturday, saying (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer):  “I just feel like we’re kind of reaching that point where we’re going to start having talks. But like I said, when we do, I’m not going to be sharing that information.” The Reds were skeptical of extending Gennett off a career-best 2017, according to the player, though he has done his best this season to show that performance wasn’t a fluke. Overall, since the Reds claimed Gennett off waivers from the division-rival Brewers prior to last season, he has slashed an excellent .304/.352/.512 with 44 home runs and 5.8 fWAR in 961 plate appearances.

Here’s more from baseball’s Central divisions:

  • Speaking with Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com and other reporters on Saturday, Indians manager Terry Francona revealed that designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion could be headed for the disabled list. Encarnacion, who’s dealing with an injured left biceps, had an MRI on Saturday and visited with a hand specialist, Hoynes writes. The 35-year-old has also battled a bone bruise in his right hand, which likely helps explain his so-so production to this point. One of the game’s biggest offensive threats from 2012-17, Encarnacion has only posted a .229/.317/.461 line (108 wRC+) this year, though he has continued to show off serious power with 25 home runs and a .232 ISO. [Update: The Indians have indeed placed Encarnacion on the DL, Hoynes tweets. The club’s recalling infielder Yandy Diaz from Triple-A Columbus in a corresponding move.]
  • Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer is closing in on a rehab assignment, per Jason Beck of MLB.com. Fulmer, out since July 20 with a left oblique strain, threw a 50-pitch bullpen session Saturday. Regardless of whether the 25-year-old returns in 2018, with the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline having passed, he no longer looks like a candidate to end up on the move this season. Fulmer had been popular in the rumor mill until hitting the DL, and if he comes back this year and performs well, he’ll surely be a target for teams over the winter.
  • Cubs left-hander Drew Smyly is holding out for a September return, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. Smyly, a former Tiger, Ray and Mariner whom the Cubs signed to a two-year, $10MM guarantee in December, continues to work back from the Tommy John procedure he underwent last June. The 29-year-old hasn’t taken a major league mound since Sept. 26, 2016.

Pending FA Hitters Who Have Hurt Their Stock In 2018

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Earlier Saturday, we ran down pending free-agent hitters who have enjoyed good to great years with trips to the open market around the corner. We’ll do the opposite with this list, which admittedly could consist of several more players, as evidenced by the cavalcade of underwhelming hitters set to hit the open market. However, in the interest of keeping this piece at a reasonable length, we’ll stick with prominent soon-to-be free agents who have hurt themselves with disappointing performances in 2018. As was the case before, we’ll focus on players who have accrued at least 150 plate appearances this season.

Catchers:

Jonathan Lucroy, Athletics: Long one of the majors’ elite all-around catchers, Lucroy is now in the throes of his second consecutive subpar season. The 32-year-old Lucroy, who sat on the open market for all of last winter until finally signing in mid-March, has limped to a career-worst .240/.296/.326 line (72 wRC+) with two home runs and a meek .086 ISO in 335 plate appearances in Oakland. Defensively, Lucroy’s slide from a tremendous pitch framer to a below-average one has continued.

Brian McCann, Astros: As is the case with Lucroy, McCann looks like a respected backstop whose best days are long gone. Before undergoing knee surgery in early July, McCann slashed an unappealing .206/.283/.323 (71 wRC+) with five homers and a career-low .116 ISO over 173 PAs. At the same time, the 34-year-old struggled in the pitch-framing department. Expectations are that McCann will return in 2018, but it’s doubtful the seven-time All-Star will be able to rebuild his stock to a meaningful extent leading up to free agency.

Matt Wieters, Nationals: Yet another catcher who garnered plenty of hype earlier in his career, Wieters may not even be in line for a major league contract in the offseason. The 32-year-old has been a downright terrible hitter since last season, as his 63 wRC+ across 618 PAs indicates, and Baseball Prospectus doesn’t regard Wieters as a particularly valuable pitch-framing backstop.

First basemen:

Joe Mauer, Twins: Mauer can still get on base, evidenced by his .346 OBP, but the ex-superstar’s power looks to be completely gone. The 35-year-old (36 next April) has only recorded an .087 ISO and three homers in 365 PAs this season. That’s not going to cut it for a first baseman, nor is Mauer’s overall line of .267/.346/.354 (93 wRC+). Mauer’s only a year removed from serving as a decent regular for the Twins, though, so perhaps there’s hope that the former catcher will be able to bounce back if he continues his career in 2019.

Logan Morrison, Twins: Morrison isn’t a true free agent-to-be yet, as he has an $8MM club option for 2019. But the Twins are likely inclined to buy that out for $1MM, considering Morrison has been a massive disappointment this year. On the heels of what seemed like a breakout season with the Rays in 2017, I implored someone to sign Morrison as a free agent when he remained on the market in February. In hindsight, that wasn’t the best call (excuse the colorful language here), as the 30-year-old Morrison has batted a horrid .186/.276/.368 (74 wRC+) with merely OK power numbers (15 homers, .182 ISO) during his 359 PAs with the Twins. Statcast has liked Morrison better than his actual results, per the enormous distance between his wOBA (.284) and his expected wOBA (.355), but that’s probably not of much consolation to the Twins.

Lucas Duda, Royals: Duda was a good hitter for the majority of his Mets tenure, which ran from 2010-17, but the Royals haven’t benefited from his presence in 2018. Since signing a one-year, $3.5MM contract with the Royals last winter, the 32-year-old Duda has scuffled to a .239/.309/.400 line (91 wRC+) and a replacement-level fWAR over 285 PAs. Along the way, the powerful Duda has posted a career-worst ISO (.161) and only 10 HRs. If it was hard for Duda to land a deal to his liking last winter, it should be all the more difficult for him during the upcoming offseason.

Second basemen:

Brian Dozier, Dodgers: At times, including his 42-home run season in 2016, Dozier has been one of the greatest power-hitting second basemen ever. Now, the 31-year-old’s a roughly league-average hitter (.228/.313/.421 with a 98 wRC+ in 498 PAs), albeit one who has still shown some pop in 2018 (19 HRs, .194 ISO). I took an in-depth look at Dozier’s middling season in June, and it hasn’t really gotten much better since then. Although, since the Twins traded Dozier to the Dodgers last month, he has raked in a limited sample of work.

DJ LeMahieu, Rockies: LeMahieu has been on the disabled list three times this season and hasn’t performed that well when healthy. A .300-plus hitter in each of the previous three seasons, LeMahieu has batted a toothless .271/.319/.419 (82 wRC+) in 371 PAs this year. However, the 30-year-old LeMahieu has deserved better in the eyes of Statcast, which credits him with a .349 xwOBA that far outpaces his .318 wOBA.

Logan Forsythe, Twins: Forsythe, who joined the Twins as part of the package they received from the Dodgers for Dozier, has mimicked Dozier in performing much better for his new team. The sample size is tiny, though, and overall, the 31-year-old has hit an ugly .234/.296/.315 (73 wRC+) in 243 PAs. Forsythe, who was one of the game’s steadiest second basemen with the Rays from 2015-16, has chipped in a meager two homers and an unimposing .081 ISO in 2018.

Neil Walker, Yankees: Even though he was a solid offensive second baseman with the Pirates, Mets and Brewers from 2010-17, the 32-year-old Walker had an awful time trying to find a contract last winter. He finally signed with the Yankees on a one-year, $4MM pact in March, but it hasn’t worked out as hoped for either party.  The switch-hitting Walker has batted a weak .227/.300/.340 (74 wRC+) with six HRs and a .113 ISO in 277 PAs in pinstripes.

Shortstop:

Alcides Escobar, Royals: Escobar has never been much of a threat at the plate, but he’s now borderline unplayable. Among qualified hitters, the 31-year-old Escobar ranks last in wRC+ (41), having hit .202/.253/.273 in 413 PAs.

Third basemen:

Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays: One of the biggest names on this list and its most recent MVP winner (2015), Donaldson hasn’t played since May 28 on account of an injured calf. When he has taken the field this year, Donaldson has produced more like a mediocre hitter than the elite player he was from 2013-17, as he has slashed .234/.333/.423 (104 wRC+) with five homers and a .190 ISO in 159 PAs. If Donaldson makes it back this season, the soon-to-be 33-year-old will attempt to rebuild his stock in advance of free agency, but neither his age nor the injury issues he has endured will help his cause.

Adrian Beltre, Rangers: Indications are that Beltre will only play for the Rangers if he returns at all in 2019, which would be his age-40 season. Based on Beltre’s apparent unwillingness to explore the market and his meager production this season, he’s seemingly not in line to receive a large payday over the winter. The future Hall of Famer has finally looked mortal at the plate this season, having compiled a .278/.333/.398 line (94 wRC+) with seven long balls and a .120 ISO in 345 PAs.

Outfielders:

Marwin Gonzalez, Astros: Gonzalez’s performance in 2017 was among many tremendous showings for the World Series-winning Astros in 2017, though the utilityman has taken sizable steps backward this season. While the 29-year-old (30 next March) has been more average than bad, as his 99 wRC+ (.242/.326/.389) in 406 PAs proves, he’s not the 4.0-fWAR star he was a year ago. Bad timing for Gonzalez with free agency around the corner.

Carlos Gomez, Rays: When the Rays added Gomez on a one-year, $4MM guarantee last March, it looked like a steal for the club. Eight months later, it’s fair to say the minimal gamble hasn’t worked out for Tampa, for which Gomez has offered a .218/.309/.354 slash (88 wRC+) with a .136 ISO (down 73 points from 2017) in 350 PAs. It wasn’t easy for Gomez to find a deal last winter, and given that he’ll turn 33 in March and will probably be coming off an unimpressive season, the upcoming winter could be even colder for the former standout.

Hunter Pence, Giants: A three-time All-Star and a two-time world champion, Pence has had an outstanding career, but we’ve perhaps reached the point where the 35-year-old should walk away. He’s .215/.252/.289 hitter (46 wRC+) with a single homer and a .074 ISO in 159 PAs so far this season.

Matt Joyce, Athletics: Joyce was a 25-HR hitter and 2.6-fWAR player for the Athletics in 2017, the first season of a two-year, $11MM contract. This season, even though the A’s are serious contenders, he hasn’t been part of the solution. Joyce, 34, has posted a .203/.311/.359 line (87 wRC+) with only seven homers across 226 PAs, though the seismic gap between his wOBA (.297) and xwOBA (.346) suggests that he hasn’t been close to as bad as his results say.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/11/18

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Keeping track of the latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Reds purchased the contract of outfielder Courtney Hawkins from the independent Sugar Land Skeeters on Friday, the Skeeters announced. Hawkins, who will report to High-A Daytona with the Reds, is best known for going 13th overall to the White Sox in the 2012 draft. Now 24, Hawkins stayed with the Chicago organization into this past April, when it released him after he failed to get past the Double-A level.

Kenley Jansen To Miss Time Due To Irregular Heartbeat

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SATURDAY: Jansen will be out until at least Aug. 20, Dodgers president Andrew Friedman told Pedro Moura of The Athletic and other reporters Saturday. At that point, the team will re-evaluate Jansen.

FRIDAY, 9:54AM: Jansen is expected to be sidelined for around one month, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link).

1:11AM: Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen was hospitalized on Thursday due to an irregular heartbeat, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times and MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) after last night’s game against the Rockies.  The issue arose prior to the game, and Jansen has already been released and traveled from Denver to Los Angeles, where he will undergo more tests later today.  At a minimum, Jansen will miss the rest of this weekend’s series, Roberts said.

This isn’t the first time that Jansen has dealt with an irregular heartbeat during his career, as the issue arose during both the 2011 and 2012 seasons.  The right-hander missed around a month of action in both instances, and underwent heart surgery following the 2012 season in an attempt to fully solve the problem.

Jansen hadn’t had any further heart situations until last night, Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi told reporters.  Denver’s high altitude may well have played a factor, as Jansen’s irregular heartbeat episode in 2012 also took place during a Dodgers visit to Coors Field.

More details will be known about Jansen’s condition after he undergoes his further tests, though obviously any sort of recurring heart problem is of the utmost seriousness.  Both Jansen and the Dodgers will surely be as careful as possible in monitoring his condition, and even if this was something of a fluke incident caused by the Denver thin air, Jansen’s medical history surely means all parties will proceed with caution about a return to the field.  One positive sign is that Zaidi said Jansen was “feeling pretty normal right now, from what we understand.”

If Jansen is facing another absence of four or five weeks (like in 2011 and 2012), then the Dodgers will be without one of baseball’s best closers through the bulk of the late-season pennant race.  The L.A. bullpen has posted generally solid overall numbers this year, though obviously Jansen (2.15 ERA, 4.36 K/BB rate, 10.1 K/9) contributed heavily to those team totals.

Setup man Scott Alexander successfully converted a save opportunity against Colorado last night, and while Alexander doesn’t have much closing experience in his young career, he is the most logical short-term candidate to handle the ninth inning.  Pedro Baez is another option, while Josh Fields only just began a rehab assignment after missing almost six weeks with shoulder inflammation.

With a lack of experienced closing options on hand, the Dodgers could also explore the trade market.  The club was already known to be looking at bullpen help prior to the trade deadline, coming away with only veteran John Axford after looking at higher-profile names on the Rangers, Marlins, Rays, Orioles, and Tigers.  Several of the names linked to Los Angeles are still on the board as potential trade candidates, not to mention multiple other relief possibilities likely to be on the move in August.

Mariners’ Sam Tuivailala To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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Mariners reliever Sam Tuivailala will undergo season-ending surgery on his right Achilles, manager Scott Servais announced Saturday (via Greg Johns of MLB.com, on Twitter).

Tuivailala exited his outing against the Rangers on Wednesday with an Achilles injury, and it’ll prove to be his last time on the mound for a while. He only threw 5 1/3 innings this year with Seattle, which acquired him from St. Louis two weeks ago in a surprising trade. Between the two teams in 2018, the 25-year-old Tuivailila registered a 3.41 ERA/3.72 FIP with 7.3 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and a 49.2 percent groundball rate in 37 innings.

It’s not yet clear if Tuivailala will be ready to go in spring training, but the good news for the Mariners is that he’s controllable through the 2022 campaign. Tuivailala played this year on a relatively minimal salary and will do the same in 2019, which is slated to be his final pre-arb season. In the meantime, the playoff-contending Mariners will have to make do without a capable reliever as they try to erase the division-rival A’s 1 1/2-game lead on the AL’s second wild-card spot.

Injury Notes: Wright, Trout, Altuve, Judge, Bryant

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In a rare piece of encouraging news for the woebegone Mets, the team announced that injured third baseman David Wright will begin a rehab assignment on Sunday, when he’ll play five innings for the club’s Class-A affiliate in St. Lucie. It’s not clear whether the 35-year-old Wright has a real chance to return this season, but if he does come back, it would be one of the greatest triumphs of the 2018 campaign. After all, a laundry list of upper body injuries limited Wright to just 75 appearances from 2015-16 and have completely kept him out of MLB action over the past couple years. The seven-time All-Star hasn’t appeared in a major league game since May 27, 2016, or a minor league contest since Aug. 26, 2017.

Catching up on other notable injury news from around the majors…

  • The Angels placed center fielder Mike Trout on the 10-day disabled list Friday, retroactive to Aug. 6, with right wrist inflammation, Maria Guardado of MLB.com was among those to report. Trout’s balky wrist has kept him out of action since Aug. 1, perhaps derailing the perennial MVP candidate’s chances of taking home his third such award in 2018.
  • Speaking of AL MVPs, last year’s winner, Astros second baseman Jose Altuve, has been out since July 26 with right knee soreness. Unfortunately, Altuve will remain on the shelf at least through the Astros’ current homestand, which ends Aug. 15, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros’ middle infield did get some good news Friday when shortstop Carlos Correa returned from a lower back injury that kept him on ice for six weeks.
  • Continuing with the theme of injured AL superstars, Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is getting “better and better every day,” manager Aaron Boone informed George A. King III of the New York Post and other reporters Friday. Boone added he’s “optimistic” that Judge, who has been unavailable since July 26 with a chip fracture in his right wrist, will progress to picking up a bat “in the next couple of days.” New York has struggled to replace the great Judge, evidenced by its consistent use of the underwhelming Shane Robinson in the outfield during the slugger’s absence.
  • Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, out since July 26 with left shoulder inflammation, told Patrick Mooney of The Athletic and other reporters Saturday that he “absolutely” expects to return in 2018. In order to preserve his body, Bryant noted that he “plans to alter his gameday routine,” writes Mooney, who adds that the 26-year-old would like to play until he’s 40.

Cardinals Select Patrick Wisdom’s Contract

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The Cardinals announced that they’ve selected third baseman Patrick Wisdom’s contract from Triple-A Memphis. He’ll take the place of infielder Yairo Munoz on the Cardinals’ 25-man roster. Munoz landed on the 10-day disabled list with a right wrist sprain. To make room for Wisdom on its 40-man roster, St. Louis transferred reliever Luke Gregerson to the 60-day DL.

The 26-year-old Wisdom, whom the Cardinals chose in the first round (No. 52) of the 2012 draft, is finally in position to make his major league debut. Wisdom had been among the Redbirds’ top prospects in the few seasons after they drafted him, but his production and stock fell as he climbed the minor league ranks. To Wisdom’s credit, though, he mashed 31 home runs at Triple-A last season and returned this year to hit a solid .289/.363/.479 (119 wRC+) with 14 HRs in 405 trips to the plate en route to his first MLB promotion.

Pending FA Hitters Who Have Helped Themselves In 2018

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With Major League Baseball’s regular season winding down, we’re drawing closer to the playoffs and the opening of the free-agent market soon after that. There are plenty of hitters scheduled to reach free agency in a few months, including a pair of in-their-prime superstars, and here we’ll identify which members of the group have helped their causes during platform seasons. Each of these players has racked up at least 150 plate appearances this year, so we’ll use that number as an arbitrary cutoff…

Manny Machado, SS/3B, Dodgers: Entering 2018, Machado was a soon-to-be 26-year-old with three seasons of at least 5.0 fWAR under his belt since his first full campaign in 2013. Machado’s stock was already sky high with a trip to free agency looming, then, yet he has managed to raise it in the season’s first four-plus months. A .279/.329/.476 hitter (115 wRC+) in 3,365 PAs from 2012-17, Machado is on pace for his top offensive year with a .308/.383/.547 line (147 wRC+), a personal-high walk rate (11.0 percent, up from 6.7 between 2012-17) and a career-best-tying ISO (.239). Moreover, with 26 home runs, he’s set to eclipse the 30-HR mark for the fourth straight year, and he has also reached double-digit steals (10 on 11 tries) for the second time.

If there’s one criticism of Machado, it’s that he has been brutal at shortstop, his preferred position, with minus-17 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-6.6 Ultimate Zone Rating. An all-world defender at third base with the Orioles from 2012-17, Machado has spent some time at the hot corner since the Dodgers acquired him last month and has once again thrived at the position. It may be better for Machado’s earning power if he’s willing to move back to third on a full-time basis, but regardless, he’s in for a massive payday.

Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals: Admittedly, whether Harper has upped his stock this year to a noticeable degree is debatable. After all, the lefty-swinger hasn’t come close to rivaling his otherworldly offensive seasons of 2015 and ’17. But a .235/.379/.500 showing (130 wRC+) isn’t to be taken lightly, nor are 28 homers, a .265 ISO and an 18 percent walk rate. And it’s worth noting that Harper has appeared in nearly all of the Nationals games’ (113 of 116) after missing 51 contests with injuries a year ago. Set to turn 26 in October, Harper – like Machado – is a Hall of Fame-type talent on a collision course with an enormous contract.

Yasmani Grandal, C, Dodgers: Grandal has been generally outstanding since 2015, his first year with the Dodgers, but it did look as if backup Austin Barnes was beginning to take hold of the starting catcher job in LA last season. During the NL pennant winners’ run through the playoffs in 2017, Barnes picked up 52 PAs to Grandal’s 11. That trend hasn’t continued into this year, though, with Grandal having nearly doubled Barnes’ playing time to this point (379 PAs to 190). Along the way, Grandal has put up a personal-best wRC+ (131) on the strength of a .252/.354/.492 line and 20 homers, giving him three straight seasons with at least that many. The 29-year-old switch-hitter also leads qualified catchers in ISO (.240) and has seen his expected weighted on-base average rise from .299 in 2017 to .373 this year. Adding to Grandal’s immense appeal, he has been the game’s second-best pitch-framing backstop in 2018, according to Baseball Prospectus.

A.J. Pollock, CF, Diamondbacks: Pollock was one of baseball’s rising stars before missing nearly the entire 2016 campaign on account of fractured right elbow. Two years later, he looks back to form, though a fractured thumb did cost the soon-to-be 31-year-old significant time earlier this season. As a result of that injury, Pollock has only appeared in 71 games thus far, but he has made a major impact in the process. Pollock has been worth 2.3 fWAR on the strength of a .283/.344/.539 (133 wRC+) slash at the plate, and has added 15 homers, 10 steals on 12 tries and a .256 ISO.

Eduardo Escobar, 3B/SS, Diamondbacks: Escobar’s numbers have dipped since he went from the Twins to the D-backs in a trade last month, but the overall production is still worthy of praise. Thanks in large part to a .278/.338/.505 line (121 wRC+) in 456 PAs, Escobar has already logged 2.6 fWAR, matching the career-high figure he totaled in 2014. The switch-hitting 29-year-old also has 15 homers, putting him on pace for his second straight 20-HR season, to go with a personal-best .227 ISO (notably, Escobar began hitting more fly balls in 2017 and has continued that trend this year). As left-side infielders go, Escobar’s no Machado, but it still seems he’ll do well for himself in free agency.

Nelson Cruz, DH, Mariners: Two important factors that will hamper Cruz’s value in free agency: 1. He’s 38. 2. He can’t play defense. If a team needs an offensive boost at DH, though, you won’t find many hitters who are more imposing. Cruz has essentially been as excellent as ever this year, having slashed .268/.353/.556 (148 wRC+) with 30 long balls in 416 PAs. He’s also a Statcast favorite, ranking second in the majors in average exit velocity (94.4 mph), sixth in xwOBA (.422, which blows away his real-world .383 wOBA) and 10th in barrels per plate appearance (9.6 percent).

Nick Markakis, OF, Braves: As with Cruz, Markakis’ age (35 in November) will work against him on the market. Fortunately for Markakis, though, he has found another gear at the plate in 2018. After serving as a league-average or slightly worse hitter over the previous several seasons, Markakis has batted .326/.390/.505 (138 wRC+, tying his career-high mark from 2008) with 14 homers and a .179 ISO (his highest since ’08) in 500 PAs. Signs it’s not a fluke: Markakis has amassed roughly as many walks (50) as strikeouts (54), and his xwOBA (.383) and actual wOBA (.378) nearly match. He’a also defying the aging curve in the outfield, having accounted for five DRS, three Outs Above Average and a 2.1 UZR.

Steve Pearce, 1B/OF, Red Sox: Some of the names at the absolute top of the xwOBA leaderboard include – to no one’s surprise – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Mike Trout, Matt Carpenter, Joey Votto … and Pearce, who has outdone all of them except Betts. Granted, Pearce’s ridiculous .465 xwOBA has come over a mere 164 PAs, though both his Statcast numbers and his .301/.384/.566 line (156 wRC+) continue a recent history of quality offense from the late-blooming journeyman – one who has played for every AL East team since 2012. Considering Pearce will turn 36 next April and has never even accumulated 400 PAs in an individual season, it’s fair to say he’s not going to break the bank over the winter. Nevertheless, the right-handed hitter has emerged as an important piece for the seemingly unstoppable Red Sox and will continue to make his case for a nice payday into the fall.

Jed Lowrie, 2B, Athletics: Lowrie will turn 35 next April, making him yet another player on this list whose age will damage his financial aspirations. Still, the switch-hitter’s in the second straight season of a late-career resurgence and has been among the A’s premier players this year in a shockingly great campaign for the club. Injuries have held back Lowrie for the majority of his time in the majors, but not lately – he appeared in 153 of the A’s games in 2017 and has taken the field 113 times out a possible 116 this year. Lowrie’s now amid a season in which he has smacked a career-high 17 HRs and hit .265/.344/.451 (120 wRC+) in 485 PAs.

Matt Adams, 1B, Nationals: The Nats’ signing of Adams to a one-year, $4MM deal last winter didn’t elicit much excitement at the time, but it now looks like one of the best buys of last offseason. While the lefty-hitting Adams, 29, has continued to struggle against same-handed pitchers, he has mashed righties en route to an overall line of .270/.347/.536 (134 wRC+) with 18 dingers and a .266 ISO in 265 PAs. Statcast suggests the production hasn’t been smoke and mirrors, evidenced by the minuscule gap between Adams’ wOBA (.374) and xwOBA (.375). And for what it’s worth, Adams has continued to show off a solid glove at first, where DRS has graded him as a plus defender in all but one season since debuting in 2012.

Mark Reynolds, 1B, Nationals: Like Adams, Reynolds has been a steal for Washington, which added him on a minor league pact in early April. Since then, all the 35-year-old Reynolds has done is record a .272/.361/.537 line (137 wRC+) with 11 homers and a .265 ISO through 158 PAs. As Jeff Todd noted earlier this week, defensive and baserunning limitations detract from Reynolds’ value. However, after settling for minors deals in 2017 and ’18, perhaps the well-traveled power hitter has impressed enough as a part-time player for the Nationals to earn a major league contract during the upcoming winter.

Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Phillies: The switch-hitting Cabrera, 32, has been a respectable offensive player throughout his career, and he hasn’t fallen off at all in 2018. This has been among Cabrera’s most productive years yet, in fact, as he has batted .272/.324/.480 (118 wRC+) with 20 homers and a .208 ISO in 454 PAs. That’s terrific output from someone who can line up around the infield, though with a disastrous minus-16 DRS, Cabrera has been a butcher at second base – his primary position.

Daniel Descalso, 2B/3B, Diamondbacks: The third D-back on this list, the 31-year-old Descalso has saved his best offensive season for the right time as free agency awaits. A below-average offensive producer in each season from 2010-17, Descalso has registered an appealing 123 wRC+ this year while hitting .256/.377/.450 with nine homers, a .195 ISO and a 16.4 percent walk rate. And with a .362 xwOBA, that production hasn’t been a fluke. On the other hand, Descalso hasn’t been nearly that effective as a defender at third, where he has notched minus-seven DRS in 240 innings.

Honorable mention: Indians outfielder Michael Brantley, who has finally stayed healthy this year after missing a combined 223 games from 2016-17. Through 103 games/454 PAs in 2018, Brantley has hit .293/.345/.455 (116 wRC+) with 12 HRs and almost as many walks (32) as strikeouts (38). However, the 31-year-old’s Brantley’s numbers have gone downhill to a substantial degree since a red-hot first two months, and his work in left field has drawn poor reviews (minus-nine DRS, minus-six Outs Above Average, minus-4.4 UZR).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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