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Roki Sasaki’s Agent Denies Rumors Of Handshake Deal With Dodgers

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Speculation about the likelihood of star Nippon Professional Baseball right-hander being likely to sign with the Dodgers — or even having a predetermined “handshake” deal to sign in L.A. once formally posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines — has drawn a sharp rebuke from his representatives. Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman emphatically denied that there’s any truth to those rumors, telling Evan Drellich of The Athletic:

“While a bunch of executives who should know me better and do a lot of business with me insult my integrity by insinuating that I would be a part of some type of nefarious agreement, in reality, this is just poor sportsmanship.”

Much of the speculation regarding the Dodgers and Sasaki stems from the Dodgers having the largest amount of money remaining in their 2024 international bonus pool — roughly $2.5MM. There’s also the fact that the Dodgers employ a pair of high-profile Japanese stars, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — the latter of whom is also represented by Wolfe and Wasserman. Of course, Wolfe/Wasserman are no strangers to representing high-profile international talent. They’ve also represented NPB stars like Kodai Senga and Seiya Suzuki, among others, in recent years.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred suggested this week that Sasaki’s posting will likely stretch into the 2025 signing period, which throws a wrench into the thinking behind the Dodgers having an edge due to their remaining amount of international pool space. When the 2025 signing period kicks off on Jan. 15, the Dodgers will be tied with the Giants for the smallest pool in the game at $5,146,200, per Baseball America. (The Dodgers forfeited two draft picks and $1MM in international pool space when signing Ohtani last offseason.)

All clubs are able to acquire additional bonus pool space, which is tradeable in $250K increments. However, a club can only acquire up to 60% of its initial pool allotment. For the Dodgers, that means they’ll be capped at offering a bonus in the vicinity of $8.25MM to Sasaki, and even that would require trading plenty of assets in order to acquire the maximum $3.09MM in extra space they can add. Each of the Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Twins, Brewers, A’s, Mariners and Rays, meanwhile will start the 2025 period with pools of $7.555MM. The Padres, another commonly speculated landing spot for Sasaki, will begin the 2025 period with a $6.26MM pool.

In theory, any of those teams with a $7.555MM pool could offer a maximum bonus of just over $12MM if they succeed in acquiring the full 60% of possible additional space. The Padres and others in their bracket could top out at just over $10MM.

In practice, however, it’s unlikely another club would be able to acquire such a weighty slate of international funds. Teams throughout the league continue to thumb their nose at the supposed rules barring them from negotiating advance deals with teenage talent on the international free agent market. Most clubs have already committed the majority of their 2025 pools on handshake deals with teenage prospects in Latin America. Whichever club signs Sasaki will likely do so at the cost of reneging on existing agreements with amateurs in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and other Latin American countries. Similarly, teams that don’t feel they have a real chance to sign Sasaki will be reluctant to trade significant chunks of their bonus pool, given that so many of those dollars are effectively committed elsewhere.

Baseball America’s Ben Badler took a comprehensive look at the ripple effects of Sasaki’s signing potentially pushing into next year’s period last week, before Manfred had publicly suggested that was likely. As Badler reports, the Dodgers and Padres have committed less of their 2025 pool to Latin American agreements than most clubs around the league, likely due to their hope that Sasaki would be posted and they’d be positioned to make the best offer.

However, it’s also likely that there will be clubs that are willing to scrap their existing verbal agreements in order to make a full-fledged pursuit of Sasaki. Some of those teams will inherently have more to offer the right-hander. The trickle-down effect could see players who thought they’d be signing with a Sasaki bidder instead explore last-minute deals with other clubs, creating a domino effect throughout the Latin American market.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently tackled this issue as well, exploring the many pitfalls of a flawed international free agent system the league and MLBPA have yet to sufficiently address. As he notes, it feels patently ridiculous that a player like Sasaki, who has dominated in NPB for the past four seasons and just turned 23, is categorized alongside a 16-year-old prospect from Latin America. Rosenthal suggested the league separate Sasaki from international bonus pools but not make him an unrestricted free agent; rather, cap his bonus at the $7.555MM sum the top teams will have in next year’s signing period. That’s an imperfect solution in and of itself, of course. It could also very well push Sasaki toward one of the widely expected landing spots (L.A. or San Diego) anyhow; all teams would effectively be on an even playing field, and a West Coast, win-now club would quite possibly hold more appeal than a Midwest team with less certain playoff aspirations.

There’s no perfect solution that can be put forth in the coming weeks. Sasaki’s decision to leave literally hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Yamamoto waited until he was 25 years old to shed his “amateur” status and commanded a $325MM deal in L.A. — creates an impossible predicament for Major League Baseball and its current international amateur setup.

This situation will assuredly be a talking point, if not the focal point, during ensuing discussions regarding a potential international draft in the next wave of collective bargaining talks between MLB and the Players Association. For now, it’s a messy situation that’ll result in plenty of accusations, finger-pointing, and likely some jilted Latin American prospects who are left scrambling for new arrangements.

Mariners Showing Interest In Carlos Santana

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander already confirmed earlier in the offseason that the club has discussed a potential reunion with Justin Turner, and they’re also weighing a reunion with another former Mariner. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the M’s have spoken to free agent first baseman Carlos Santana, who spent part of the 2022 season in Seattle. Jude cites multiple sources in adding that interest in bringing one of the two back to Seattle is strong enough that it’s considered a “likelihood” the Mariners will close a deal with one of them.

Santana, 39 in April, is fresh off his best year since 2019. He spent the 2024 campaign in Minnesota, serving as the Twins’ everyday first baseman and winning a Gold Glove for his defensive efforts there. He also slashed .238/.328/.420 with 23 homers in 594 plate appearances. That’s good for a solid 114 wRC+ (indicating he was 14% better than league-average at the plate), but setting aside a catastrophically poor first three weeks of the season, Santana hit .253/.342/.460 (129 wRC+, or 29%  better than average) after connecting on his first homer in late April.

That type of production would appeal to just about any club, particularly when coupled with excellent defense and a stellar clubhouse reputation. That latter factor is also a key part of the Mariners’ interest in both Turner and Santana, per Jude. At the end of the season, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto voiced a desire to add some veteran voices to help lead a young clubhouse, Jude writes, specifically name-dropping both Turner and Santana as examples of players who’ve played key leadership roles during partial seasons in Seattle.

There are other reasons to think both players fit the Mariners’ roster. Both Turner (17.6%) and Santana (16.7%) struck out well below the 22.6% league average in 2024. The Mariners’ collective 26.8% strikeout rate was the worst in MLB. Whittling that number down should be a priority, and either veteran first baseman would help the club take strides toward that end.

Both Turner and Santana are also natural fits to pair up with Luke Raley at first base. Turner’s right-handed bat makes him a logical platoon partner at first, and he hits righties enough to take DH at-bats even when Raley draws a start in the field. Santana’s glove probably would push Raley to a primary DH/corner outfield role, but the veteran switch-hitter is much better from the right side of the plate. For a Mariners club that hit only .213/.300/.363 against southpaws last year, Santana’s .286/.356/.578 slash against lefties has to look especially appealing.

Either Santana or Turner should be available on a one-year deal. Santana will surely command a raise on last year’s modest $5.25MM salary, whereas Turner could be in line for a cut from last year’s $13MM rate of pay. Again, for a Mariners club that’s expected to increase payroll, but perhaps not by leaps and bounds over the roughly $145MM mark at which they finished the 2024 campaign, that makes either veteran a logical target. RosterResource currently projects the Mariners for a $150MM payroll, though that figure could change in the next 36 hours based on non-tenders and/or potential trades of non-tender candidates.

The Mariners haven’t been shy about their desire to add infield bats this offseason. Dipoto and Hollander have voiced confidence in an outfield mix of Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles and Raley. They’re looking to add a bat capable of spending some time at first base and either a second baseman or third baseman — with Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore standing as candidates to platoon at the other spot. Turner or Santana would check one box and do so both affordably and while improving the club’s overall contact rate.

Red Sox, Dodgers Have Met With Blake Snell

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Juan Soto’s meetings with owners around the leagues have dominated headlines recently, but he’s not the only high-profile free agent or Scott Boras client setting up meetings with team contingents. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that left-hander Blake Snell has held recent meetings with both the Red Sox and Dodgers. The Blue Jays are also pursuing Snell, per Rosenthal’s report, and could soon set up a meeting of their own. The Orioles are another potential club who could do so.

Both Boston and Los Angeles have reason to be in on high-end rotation help this summer, and the 32-year-old Snell, a two-time Cy Young winner, clearly fits the billing. Similarly, Snell has good motivation to push for a swifter free agency than last offseason, after lingering on the market into spring training and signing a two-year deal with an opt-out in San Francisco less than two weeks before Opening Day.

For the Red Sox, Snell would add a No. 1 starter to the top of a rotation that could lose Nick Pivetta to free agency after he rejected a qualifying offer. Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello are all rotation locks right now. Lucas Giolito will join them at some point in the season’s first half, but his timeline remains murky after he missed the entire 2024 season — his first in Boston — thanks to UCL surgery performed in spring training. Righty Garrett Whitlock is also on the mend from his own UCL procedure.

Candidates for the final two rotation spots at Fenway Park currently include Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, Quinn Priester and Zach Penrod. Criswell looked to have a leg up after a decent season, due to a lack of minor league options, but he’s reportedly eligible for a fourth option year, which gives the Sox even more flexibility with their staff.

Many Red Sox fans are understandably skeptical of the team’s willingness to follow through on pursuits of high-profile free agents. Boston faithful are still stinging from chairman Tom Werner’s widely mocked “full throttle” comments last offseason, which did not result in an acquisition larger than Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM contract. But Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has taken a more aggressive stance himself this time around, declaring that it’s time for the Red Sox to “deliver the team that’s capable of winning the AL East” even if that means the Sox need to be “aggressive in bringing players in who aren’t currently in the organization.”

From a payroll perspective, the Red Sox have more than enough space to accommodate multiple big-ticket additions this winter. RosterResource currently projects Boston for a $138MM payroll and $171MM worth of luxury obligations. That projection is nearly $100MM shy of their franchise-record payroll, while their luxury ledger right now leaves them $70MM shy of the first tier threshold. Of course, the Red Sox haven’t been shy about paying the luxury tax in the past, either. They did so as recently as 2022 and have now reset their penalty level by dipping back under the tax line. The Red Sox have an extremely small arbitration class — just Houck, Crawford and Jarren Duran — and will only add Triston Casas, Connor Wong and perhaps Zack Kelly to that group in 2026.

Turning to the Dodgers, there’s an obvious case for Snell as a fit. Connections like this can often be more anecdotal than substantive, but it at least bears mentioning that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was running baseball operations in Tampa Bay when the Rays drafted and developed Snell. Outside their deals for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — two players with unique free agent circumstances — the Dodgers have preferred shorter-term, high-AAV deals in free agency. That could make Snell, whose maximum contract length is perhaps shorter than other top-tier starters because he’s about to turn 32 years old, a more typical “Dodgers” fit.

One deterrent for the Dodgers could be an already bloated luxury-tax bill. RosterResource pegs them at $270MM in obligations, meaning they’re already well into the second tier of penalty. Snell alone could push them into the fourth tier, particularly on a high-AAV short-term deal. Even using last year’s $31MM AAV as a hypothetical guideline — and Snell has a case for a higher one on another relatively short deal — Snell would cost the Dodgers nearly $57MM in year one of the contract. That’d also set the Dodgers up to pay a 110% tax on any dollars spent thereafter. Trades and non-tenders could lessen the sting, but likely not by much. Any free agent dollars spent by the Dodgers are going to hurt.

Still, the Dodgers likely feel they need to bite that bullet. The rotation in Los Angeles has nearly unmatched star power but similarly has nearly unrivaled question marks. Yamamoto, Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow make up a potentially dominant top three, but health concerns abound. Yamamoto missed more than two months with a shoulder injury in 2024. Glasnow was limited to only 22 starts last year, and his modest 134 innings represented a career-high. Ohtani didn’t pitch while recovering from the second UCL repair of his career.

Beyond that talented but risky top three are Tony Gonsolin (who missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery), Dustin May (who missed all of 2024 recovering from forearm surgery and an esophageal procedure) and Bobby Miller (a breakout 2023 rookie who struggled immensely in 2024). Highly touted young arms like Gavin Stone (shoulder surgery), River Ryan (Tommy John surgery), Emmet Sheehan (Tommy John surgery) and Kyle Hurt (Tommy John surgery) will miss some or all of the 2025 season. Dodgers icon Clayton Kershaw will be back on some form of incentive-laden deal — he’s already declared as much — though the two parties have yet to come to specific terms. Kershaw started just seven games last year.

Snell, of course, has his own lengthy injury history — including a pair of groin and adductor injuries that limited him to six awful starts in the season’s first two months with the archrival Giants. However, upon returning in early July, the lefty looked back to Cy Young form. He fired 12 shutout frames between his first two starts, kicking off a three-month run for the ages. Snell tossed a no-hitter at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park against the Reds, fanned 15 Rockies in a start at Coors Field and at one point went on a streak of four double-digit strikeout performances in five starts.

Over the final three months of the season, Snell was comically dominant. He pitched 80 1/3 innings with a jaw-dropping 1.23 ERA, complemented by an elite 38.1% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate that’s higher than average but passable for someone who can miss bats at Snell’s level. It was only 14 starts, but Snell was the best pitcher in baseball from July 2 onward.

Snell has a history of slow starts and blistering second-half surges, but as I examined late in the season for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, many of his first-half struggles have come in conjunction with unusual spring circumstances (i.e. the shortened 2020 season, the accelerated ramp-up from the 2021-22 lockout, and signing in late March last year). True, there are pitchers who’ve succeeded in spite of similar circumstances, but we’ve also repeatedly seen late-signing pitchers struggle early in the year (e.g. Jordan Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, to name a few). It’s eminently possible that Snell is the type of pitcher who simply needs a full runway to realize his best form. He’d hardly be alone in that regard, and that characteristic gives him all the more motivation to have a deal in place well before spring training begins.

Snell faces some notable competition on the free agent market. Some clubs may not want to spend aggressively on another free agent before they know the outcome of the Juan Soto auction, and even those willing to spend sooner than that will also have to weigh the merits of signing a 32-year-old Snell versus a 31-year-old Max Fried, 30-year-old Corbin Burnes or 29-year-old Jack Flaherty. Fried and Burnes have qualifying offers attached to them, whereas Snell and Flaherty do not; in other words, teams will have to forfeit draft picks and international bonus pool space to sign Fried or Burnes — but not Snell or Flaherty. Snell is three years older than Flaherty but also more accomplished. He certainly has his warts and carries plenty of risk, but it’s easy enough to see how a club could view Snell as the most appealing of this offseason’s top-tier starters when factoring in likely length of contract, draft compensation, track record, health and other factors.

The Opener: MVP, Pre-Tender Deals, Non-Tender Candidates

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. MVP winners to be announced:

Award season is set to wrap up at 5pm CT this evening with the unveiling of MVP results in both leagues. There isn’t much suspense regarding the winner in either league, as the AL saw Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge establish himself as a heavy favorite with an eye-popping season that edged out his 2022 campaign (when he set a new AL record for home runs in a season) in both wRC+ (218) and fWAR (11.2). Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and top-of-the-class free agent Juan Soto had incredible seasons of their own to earn their spots as finalists, but Judge’s .322/.458/.701 slash, 58 home runs, 122 runs scored and 144 runs batted in will be nearly impossible to overcome.

Meanwhile, the NL field was regarded as crowded for most of the season, but Shohei Ohtani began to pull away from the pack late in the year as he became the first player in history to post a 50-50 season and ultimately finished with 54 homers and 59 stolen bases —  all while hitting .310/.390/.646. Assuming Ohtani wins over fellow finalists Francisco Lindor and Ketel Marte (whose case was dinged by a late stint on the injured list), he’ll become the first full-time DH to win the award in MLB history.

2. Are more pre-tender deals on the horizon?

With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, the A’s and first baseman/outfielder Seth Brown got a head start on the type of deal that will surely be seen frequently all across baseball over the next day and a half by avoiding arbitration. “Pre-tender” deals like these often see the player sign at a figure lower than their expected value in arbitration in order to secure a roster spot, knowing the alternative is a non-tender into a crowded free agent pool. Brown, who was outrighted off the A’s roster in June but hit his way back to the majors, agreed to a one-year, $2.7MM deal that fell well shy of the $3.8MM salary projected in MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s algorithm. Several more deals along these lines could unfold between now and tomorrow afternoon’s deadline.

3. Which players are non-tender candidates this year?

Ahead of tomorrow’s non-tender deadline, MLBTR will be publishing a list of potential non-tender candidates later today. While it certainly won’t be the case that every player listed gets non-tendered (and it’s quite unlikely that even most of them will), the list features a broad group of plausible candidates who could be non-tendered given their projected arbitration price and a confluence of factors including their expected production, injury situation, and/or the financial situation of their team. Some players from the list could also look to sign a pre-tender deal with their team or even be traded in advance of the deadline. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at a selection of arb-eligible players who could be trade candidates in the run-up to tomorrow’s deadline in a post for Front Office subscribers yesterday.

MLB Mailbag: Braves, Padres, Red Sox, Rangers, Reds, Rizzo, Buehler

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This week's mailbag gets into Braves, Padres, and Red Sox offseason possibilities, where Anthony Rizzo and Walker Buehler could land, off-the-wall Reds trade ideas, potential Rangers trade partners, and much more.

Bill asks:

What will Atlanta do this offseason with their shortstop, pitching, catching, and outfield needs?

I don't think the Braves will do anything significant at catcher; they might be content to use Chadwick Tromp as Sean Murphy's backup and see how Drake Baldwin comes along.  If they wanted to limit Murphy's playing time, they would've kept Travis d'Arnaud.

In terms of starting pitchers, the Braves have been linked to Walker Buehler, Nick Pivetta, and Nathan Eovaldi so far.  We'll know by Friday whether they tender a contract to Griffin Canning.  I don't love the Pivetta fit, given that he declined a qualifying offer.

12 days ago, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tossed out some of these same names and also speculated on Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Kevin Gausman, and Shane Bieber.  I consider Kikuchi another viable free agent option, as well as Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and a reunion with Charlie Morton.  The Braves could make a play for Garrett Crochet, or try to trade for Fedde, Sonny Gray, Zack Littell, Jesus Luzardo, Luis Castillo, or Jeffrey Springs.  They could sign Jeff Hoffman as a starter, given how well that strategy worked with Reynaldo Lopez.

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Twins Re-Sign Scott Blewett, Yunior Severino To Minor League Deals

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The Twins have signed right-hander Scott Blewett and first baseman Yunior Severino to minor league deals, according to the club’s transactions tracker at MLB.com. Both players were just outrighted by the Twins a couple of weeks ago before electing free agency. They’ll rejoin the organization as depth options now.

This is the second straight offseason Blewett, 28, has signed a minor league deal with Minnesota. He pitched well both in Triple-A and in the majors for the Twins last season. He logged a 3.79 ERA in 54 2/3 frames with the Twins’ Triple-A club St. Paul, fanning 22.7% of his opponents against a tidy 7.1% walk rate. When the Twins summoned the former Royals hurler to the big leagues, he responded with 20 1/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. Blewett’s strikeout and walk rates were more pedestrian than that sparkling ERA, and metrics like FIP (4.00) and SIERA (4.05) felt he had a fair bit of good fortune, largely coming in the form of a 90.5% strand rate he’s not likely to sustain.

The 25-year-old Severino once ranked among the Twins’ top 10 prospects but has seen his stock drop as pronounced contact issues have persisted. He socked 35 homers between Double-A and Triple-A as recently as 2023 but fanned in nearly a third of his plate appearances that year. He dropped that strikeout rate to a still-alarming 27.8% in Triple-A this year but also saw his power output decline along with his strikeout rate; he hit just 21 homers while his ISO (slugging minus batting average) plummeted from .274 to .180.

In addition to the contact concerns, Severino is also a player without a clear defensive home. The former middle infielder has slid down the defensive spectrum as he’s filled out. He’s now primarily a first baseman and not considered to be a strong defender there. He’s also a below-average runner. Still, there’s clearly impressive raw power in Severino’s bat, and he’ll get another look in Triple-A at a time when the Twins’ first base situation is in flux. Carlos Santana became a free agent at season’s end, and former top prospect Alex Kirilloff surprisingly retired at just 26 years of age following a pair of wrist surgeries, a major shoulder surgery and a back injury that have resulted in him spending more time on the injured list than on active rosters in the past four seasons.

Latest On Rays’ Stadium Situation

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The Rays’ plans for 2028 and beyond are back up in the air. Over the weekend, owner Stuart Sternberg criticized local officials for postponing bond votes to approve the public financing to construct a new stadium in St. Petersburg’s Gas Plant district. Sternberg alluded to the possibility of relocation when discussing the situation with John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred addressed it at this week’s owners meetings. Asked about the possibility of relocation, Manfred said MLB remains “committed to the fans in Tampa Bay” (link via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). “I think given all that’s happened in that market, we’re focused on our franchise in Tampa Bay right now,” he added.

That partially walks back Sternberg’s relocation threat, though the team continues to agitate for a quick resolution. Pinellas County officials met on Tuesday afternoon, a few days after Sternberg’s comments. Leading up to the meeting, Rays presidents Brian Auld and Matt Silverman wrote a letter to the county saying that the delays have already “ended an ability for the delivery of the 2028 ballpark” (link via Colleen Wright of the Tampa Bay Times). Auld and Silverman wrote that moving forward with the plan in ’29 “would result in significantly higher costs,” though they concluded by saying they “stand ready to work on a new solution with any and all willing partners to preserve the future of baseball in Tampa Bay.”

That didn’t spur any kind of movement from the county. Officials voted for another postponement on the bonds, pushing that back until at least December 17, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Sam Blum of the Athletic wrote yesterday that some county officials have taken issue with Sternberg’s tactics.

“To be clear, we did not vote to kill the deal, nor should a three-week delay in a 30-plus year commitment be a deal killer to begin with,” the board’s vice chair Brian Scott said at the meeting (per Blum). “That’s just a totally ridiculous statement. The delay was not because of a lack of support for the Rays or our partnership. But it was a necessary due diligence to ensure the best interest of our residents and our taxpayers were met.”

In July, St. Petersburg and Pinellas County each approved the stadium deal that would’ve committed upwards of $300MM in public funding to a $1.3 billion project. They didn’t officially vote on the bonds at that time, however, and the deal was thrown into flux in recent weeks. Hurricanes Helene and Milton have hit the area incredibly hard. Hurricane Milton destroyed the Tropicana Field roof, rendering it unplayable for at least the 2025 season. The city has yet to announce whether it’ll approve the approximate $55.7MM in repair costs necessary to get the Trop into playing condition by ’26. Elections in November also changed the makeup of the county council.

The Rays will play next season at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. Manfred suggested the end of 2025 could serve as an unofficial deadline for having a long-term plan in place. “It’s one thing to make an interim arrangement for 2025, which we’ve done,” the commissioner stated. “When you get into another year, there’s obviously going to be another interim arrangement unless they get the Trop fixed. I think that second year of an interim arrangement, you need a plan as to how you’re going to get into a permanent facility.”

Trade Candidates To Watch Before Friday’s Non-Tender Deadline

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Friday represents the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players who are under club control. There are always a few notable names who are cut loose as their projected arbitration price tags begin to outpace production. The non-tender deadline can also serve as a catalyst for trades. A player's current team might not want to meet their arbitration salary, but the price isn't so outlandish that they can't find someone else willing to take that on.

Cal Quantrill, Scott Barlow, Luis Urías and Kyle Wright all fell into this bucket at last year's deadline. They'd each had some early-career success that built their arbitration prices, but each was either coming off a mediocre year or (in Wright's case) facing a significant injury absence.

We'll try to identify a few players who could land in the middle ground this week. These aren't the arbitration-eligible players who are most likely to be traded at any point this offseason. Garrett Crochet, Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams all have a decent chance to move over the winter, but none of them is in danger of getting cut. Friday doesn't serve as any kind of deadline to spur a trade for them. Their teams can tender them a contract and trade them weeks or months from now. Players traded this week are usually borderline non-tender candidates. If their teams don't find a trade partner by Friday evening, they could decide to move on entirely. Salary projections are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. All of these players have five-plus years of service and are down to their final year of club control.

Mike Yastrzemski, Giants ($9.5MM projection)

All four of San Francisco's arb-eligible players could arguably fit on this list. LaMonte Wade Jr., Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval are themselves viable offseason trade candidates. Moving Yastrzemski could be the most urgent decision for president of baseball operations Buster Posey. With a $9.5MM projection, he's the most expensive player in the team's arbitration class and seems the likeliest to be non-tendered if they don't arrange a trade in the next 48 hours.

Yastrzemski is a capable everyday right fielder. After two excellent offensive seasons to begin his career, he has settled in as an average hitter. The lefty-hitting outfielder carries a .225/.311/.431 batting line since the start of the '21 season. This year's .231/.302/.437 slash with 18 homers is on par with that production. Yastrzemski is a solid defensive corner outfielder but isn't an option for more than emergency work in center field. A near-$10MM salary for his age-34 season is neither an albatross nor a bargain. Yastrzemski seemed to be a favorite of former front office head Farhan Zaidi. It's not clear if Posey values him to the same extent, but the Giants are clearly going to reshuffle the lineup in some way this winter.

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Red Sox Agree To Minor League Deals With Seby Zavala, Nate Eaton

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The Red Sox have agreed to minor league deals with catcher Seby Zavala, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Boston is also in agreement on a minor league deal with utilityman Nate Eaton, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Eaton would earn a $780K base salary if selected to the 40-man roster. Both players will be invited to major league spring training.

Zavala, a client of Headline Sports Group, spent the 2024 season in the Mariners organization. Seattle acquired him alongside flamethrowing relief prospect Carlos Vargas in the trade sending Eugenio Suarez to the D-backs. The hope was that Zavala, a terrific defender behind the plate, could hold down the backup job to workhorse catcher Cal Raleigh.

Things didn’t pan out that way, however. The 31-year-old Zavala has never hit much, but last year’s .154/.214/.282 slash (in a tiny sample of 43 plate appearances) was too anemic for the M’s to stomach. Zavala was designated for assignment three different times but opted to stick with the M’s via outright assignment each time. He became a minor league free agent at season’s end.

Zavala has appeared in 194 big league games. He’s a career .205/.271/.342 hitter in that time. He’s shown passable power for his position and also displayed some pop in the minors, but Zavala has punched out in a staggering 35.9% of his 557 big league plate appearances. That lack of contact leaves him with practically no hope of producing at even an average level.

Defensively, it’s another story. Zavala regularly posts elite framing marks and draws above-average grades for his ability to block pitches in the dirt, per Statcast. He posted a below-average caught stealing rate in 2023 but was within one percentage point of league-average in both 2024 and 2022. The Red Sox currently only have two catchers on the 40-man roster: Connor Wong and Mickey Gasper. Adding some experienced depth is a sensible endeavor.

Eaton, 28 next month, is a client of Gaeta Sports Management. He didn’t play in the big leagues this past season but logged 72 games and 178 plate appearances for the Royals from 2022-23. He batted only .201/.266/.283 in that time, but the versatile right-handed hitter has a far better track record in the upper minors. In parts of three seasons in Triple-A Omaha, he’s a .261/.320/.455 hitter with 40 homers and 60 steals in 255 games (1060 plate appearances).

Eaton has played primarily third base in his professional career but has at least 600 innings at each of the three outfield slots in addition to another 350 frames at second base and 60 at shortstop. Statcast credited him with 97th percentile sprint speed in his two big league seasons, measuring him at a blazing 29.6 feet per second.

Boston’s bench should have some spots up for grabs. Utilityman Rob Refsnyder, another right-handed bat, figures to have one spot locked down, and Gasper does as well for the time being, currently profiling as the backup to Wong. Romy Gonzalez, Nick Sogard, Enmanuel Valdez and Vaughn Grissom could all be in the mix for spots as well, but they all have minor league options remaining. Eaton’s versatility could earn him a look in the majors with a big spring or a strong early showing with the Sox’ Triple-A affiliate in Worcester.

Manfred: Sasaki Unlikely To Sign Until 2025

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Roki Sasaki is one of the offseason’s top stories. The Chiba Lotte Marines announced two weeks ago that they’d make the 6’2″ righty, who is widely viewed as the best pitcher in Japan, available to major league clubs via the posting system. While the Marines didn’t specify a timeline for the posting, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed this afternoon that Sasaki is not expected to sign until 2025 (link via Johnny Flores of the Athletic).

That doesn’t come as any kind of surprise. The 23-year-old Sasaki is classified as an amateur free agent — as are all players signing from a foreign league before their 25th birthday. That’s most notable because it caps Sasaki’s signing bonus to a few million dollars, a small fraction of his actual open market value. The amateur status is also relevant to the timing of his signing.

MLB permits teams to sign international amateur free agents at any point between January 15 and December 15. The vast majority of significant deals are inked on January 15. Players signing as teenagers out of Latin America usually reach verbal agreements with teams months or years in advance of the signing period. Those deals are typically finalized as soon as the period opens in mid-January.

As a result, teams have spent most or all of their bonus pools for 2024. Baseball America’s Ben Badler wrote last week that the Dodgers had the most remaining ’24 bonus space at roughly $2.5MM. By contrast, every team has between $5.1MM and $7.6MM in its pool for next year. If Sasaki were to sign before December 15, he’d be limiting himself to a small percentage on a bonus that is already capped. He’s not eligible to sign between December 15 and January 15, so he’ll wait until the opening of next year’s pool.

Of course, that presents a problem for players who have already reached verbal agreements that they expected the teams to finalize on January 15. The amateur bonus pool is hard capped. Teams can trade for bonus allotments to add a couple million dollars to their pools, but there’s a finite amount of money that MLB allows teams to spend. (Players who sign for $10K or less are exempt from the pool, but any prospect of note will sign for much more than that.)

Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely commit most or all of their pool to him. As a major league ready potential ace, he’s far more attractive to teams than even the most well-regarded teenage prospects in the class. The signing team will probably need to renege on verbal agreements with other players, who’d find themselves in flux as they look for other teams that have reached unofficial agreements with targets of their own.

If Sasaki waits into late January or February to sign, teams will need to weigh whether to finalize any commitments to other amateur players — which subtracts from the amount of money they could offer the NPB star. Badler’s piece is worth checking out in full, as he covers the trickle-down impacts that Sasaki’s free agency could have on players and trainers in Latin America. None of those are Sasaki’s concern. They’re unfortunate consequences of the system that was collectively bargained between MLB and the Players Association.

While Sasaki isn’t likely to sign before the middle of January, the posting process could begin earlier than that. A player posted by an NPB team has 45 days to sign with a major league club. The Marines could theoretically post Sasaki anytime from December 2 on to allow him to sign in the ’25 window. They’ll presumably wait at least into the middle of December so as not to force him to sign within a day or two of the opening of the signing period.

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