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Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Mason Thompson

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The Nationals announced they’ve avoided arbitration with reliever Mason Thompson. The team did not reveal salary terms. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for an $800K salary that is marginally above the $760K league minimum.

Thomspon, who turns 27 in February, underwent Tommy John surgery early in Spring Training. He obviously missed the entire season but could return relatively early in 2025. A former Padres draftee, Thompson went to the Nats at the 2021 deadline in the trade that sent veteran reliever Daniel Hudson to San Diego. Thompson made 102 appearances for Washington between 2021-23. He posted a 4.57 earned run average with a middling 17.8% strikeout rate.

This was the first of the righty’s three seasons of arbitration eligibility. Washington had a nine-player arbitration class before waiving Ildemaro Vargas. Catcher Riley Adams and relievers Derek Law and Tanner Rainey are potential non-tender candidates before tomorrow evening’s deadline.

Astros Have Made Offer To Alex Bregman

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The Astros have called re-signing Alex Bregman their top offseason priority. Whether that’ll happen remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Houston has made an offer to their longtime third baseman. It’s unclear whether any other teams have made a formal proposal, but Heyman reports that Bregman’s camp has also fielded interest from the Tigers and Red Sox.

Terms of the Astros’ proposal aren’t known. If Houston is going to retain Bregman, it’d probably require the largest investment in franchise history. Their previous organizational high is the five-year, $151MM Jose Altuve extension from 2018. Bregman has a decent shot at six or seven years at more than $25MM annually. He’ll presumably view Matt Chapman’s recent six-year, $151MM extension as the floor and could look to beat $200MM.

Houston general manager Dana Brown said early in the offseason that the Astros may need to creatively manage the books, potentially by trading a veteran or two who is playing on a notable salary. Owner Jim Crane said earlier this week that the team has the flexibility to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second straight year.

That’d essentially be a prerequisite to re-signing Bregman. RosterResource calculates Houston’s competitive balance tax number in the $234MM range. That’s not far below the $241MM base threshold. Even if the Astros trade veteran setup man Ryan Pressly and offload his $14MM salary, a Bregman contract will send them past the CBT mark. They’re also looking for help at first base and could try for a more affordable bullpen pickup if they deal Pressly.

This is the first direct tie between Bregman and the Tigers. That has been a longstanding speculative match with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch leading the charge in Motown. Detroit’s third base mix is unsettled. Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry and prospect Jace Jung all took a decent number of at-bats at the position. Vierling and McKinstry are multi-positional players. Third base is the clearest fit for the 24-year-old Jung, who has 34 games of major league experience. If the Tigers were to land Bregman, Jung could push Spencer Torkelson for playing time at first base. He’d also be a potential trade chip as Detroit looks to solidify the rotation behind Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson.

Finances are the much bigger obstacle. While Detroit has run payrolls north of $200MM in the past, those came when the late Mike Ilitch was running the franchise. The Tigers have dramatically reduced spending since Christopher Ilitich’s ownership tenure began in 2017. Much of that came amidst a rebuild that was firmly closed by Detroit’s late-season run to the AL Division Series, so they could loosen the purse strings this winter. The Tigers only have around $80MM on next year’s payroll, according to RosterResource, nearly $20MM below this past season’s Opening Day mark. They should be active on the free agent market, but a Bregman deal would almost certainly top the $140MM Javier Báez contract as Detroit’s biggest under Christopher Ilitch ownership.

The Red Sox appear more likely than either the Astros or Tigers to make a huge free agent splash. Boston brass continues to forecast an aggressive winter. A strike for a top starting pitcher is a clearer fit than a run at Bregman. Heyman suggests the Sox could move Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base to accommodate Bregman. That’d push Triston Casas to designated hitter and presumably force Masataka Yoshida off the roster.

The easier solution might be to leave Devers at third base for another season and deploy Bregman at the keystone. The Sox had one of the least productive second base groups in MLB this year. Bregman has barely played second base because of Altuve’s presence in Houston, but agent Scott Boras said at the GM Meetings that the star infielder was willing to slide to the right side of the infield if necessary.

Bregman declined a qualifying offer, so the Tigers and Sox would forfeit a pick if they were to sign him. Detroit would lose its third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Boston would relinquish its second-highest pick and $500K from its international bonus allotment. The Sox’s penalty is higher because they do not receive revenue sharing, while the Tigers do. Houston wouldn’t give up anything to re-sign their own free agent, though they’d pass up the chance to collect a compensation pick after the fourth round if Bregman walks.

Mets Agree To Minor League Deals With Joey Meneses, Hobie Harris

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The Mets are in agreement with first baseman Joey Meneses and reliever Hobie Harris on minor league deals. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported (X link) the Meneses deal, while MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported the Harris addition (on X). Meneses is a client of the MAS+ Agency; Harris is represented by Gaeta Sports Management.

Both players are former Nationals. The 32-year-old Meneses spent two and a half seasons in Washington. He had a monster showing in a limited sample as a rookie in 2022, hitting .324/.367/.563 in 56 games. The rebuilding Nats gave him two seasons to see if he could build off that surprising debut, but he hasn’t maintained anything near that form. Meneses was a roughly league average hitter in ’23, turning in a .275/.321/.401 slash with 13 homers over 154 contests. His numbers declined sharply again this year, as he finished with a .231/.291/.302 mark and a trio of home runs across 313 plate appearances.

The Nats waived Meneses at season’s end. He elected minor league free agency after going unclaimed. He’ll need to earn his way back to the big leagues. Meneses will battle for a job as a right-handed bench bat. Mark Vientos will lock down one corner infield spot. That could come at first base if the Mets allow Pete Alonso to walk. Vientos could move back to the hot corner if the Mets re-sign Alonso. Jesse Winker also hit free agency, so there could be a path to some at-bats at designated hitter depending on how the offseason plays out.

Harris, 31, has limited big league experience. He pitched in 16 games for the Nats in 2023, allowing 12 runs over 19 1/3 innings. Harris issued 13 walks and managed just nine strikeouts in that brief stint. The Pittsburgh product pitched in Triple-A with the Twins this past season. He allowed nearly seven earned runs per nine through 54 1/3 innings. Harris has struggled in the upper minors in consecutive years. He can run his fastball into the 94-95 MPH range and missed bats on an impressive 14.6% of his offerings this year, though. That was enough for the Mets to bring him aboard as minor league bullpen depth.

Shohei Ohtani Wins NL MVP

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Shohei Ohtani has his third MVP. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that Ohtani won the National League MVP in his first season as a Dodger. Francisco Lindor landed in second place, while Ketel Marte rounds out the top three. Ohtani received all 30 first-place votes.

Ohtani becomes the first full-time designated hitter to win MVP, as he was unable to pitch for the entire season after undergoing elbow surgery late last year. He joins Frank Robinson as the only players to win an MVP in both leagues and he’s only the 12th player in big league history to win the award three times in his career. Barry Bonds is the only player with more than three MVPs — he won the award seven times — so Ohtani has a chance to move into second place on the leaderboard as he goes into his age-30 season.

While Ohtani’s first two MVPs reflected his two-way ability, this year’s honors are solely about his offensive dominance. He had arguably his best hitting season ever. Ohtani hit a career-high 54 homers and drove in 130 runs. He posted a .310/.390/.646 slash line, leading the National League in both on-base percentage and slugging. Ohtani also paced the Senior Circuit in homers and RBI while ranking second among qualified hitters in batting average. Luis Arraez hit .314 to narrowly prevent Ohtani from winning the Triple Crown.

Monstrous as his power numbers were, Ohtani was also perhaps the league’s best baserunner. He stole 59 bases, trailing only Elly De La Cruz in that category. While De La Cruz was caught stealing 16 times in addition to his 67 successful attempts, Ohtani was cut down on just four occasions. No player in history had ever posted a 50-homer, 50-steal season. Ohtani broke both marks easily, getting there with one of the best single-game performances in history. He went 6-6 with three homers, two steals and 10 RBI in a 20-4 drubbing of the Marlins to establish the 50-50 club.

Ohtani helped the Dodgers to yet another NL West title — their 11th division crown in 12 years. Los Angeles went 98-64 to secure the top seed in the National League. Playoff performance is irrelevant to awards voting, which occurs at the end of the regular season. Ohtani was relatively quiet in his first October action, hitting .230/.373/.393 in 16 games. That didn’t hold L.A. back from knocking out the Padres, Mets and Yankees en route to their second World Series in five years.

For a while, it seemed as if Lindor would pose a real threat to Ohtani winning the award. He hit 33 homers and stole 29 bases with a .273/.344/.500 showing over 689 trips to the plate. As a plus defensive shortstop, Lindor obviously provided significant defensive value. Ohtani’s historic offensive achievements proved decisive in the end, though this is Lindor’s first top three MVP finish. Marte raked at a .292/.372/.560 clip with 36 homers to earn the highest MVP placement of his career.

Lindor received 23 of 30 second-place votes. Marte finished second on five ballots. Braves DH Marcell Ozuna and Cy Young winner Chris Sale each got one second-place nod themselves. Ozuna and Milwaukee catcher William Contreras rounded out the top five in overall balloting. Giants third baseman Matt Chapman received one third place vote, though he placed 11th in balloting overall. Bryce Harper, De La Cruz, Jackson Merrill, Willy Adames, Zack Wheeler, Mookie Betts, Jurickson Profar, Kyle Schwarber, Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, Arraez, Paul Skenes, Teoscar Hernández, Ezequiel Tovar, Jackson Chourio and Dylan Cease all received votes.

Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown from BBWAA.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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Aaron Judge is the MVP once again. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced this evening that the Yankee captain was the unanimous choice for the American League’s top player this year. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals was the unanimous runner-up, getting all of the second-place votes. Judge’s teammate Juan Soto finished third in the voting.

Judge was the AL MVP in 2022, his 62-homer campaign. While he came up just shy of that in 2024 with “only” 58 home runs, he roughly kept pace with himself in most categories. His 24.3% strikeout rate was actually a personal best, slightly ahead of the 25.1% clip from his previous MVP campaign. His 18.9% walk rate was a few ticks better than the 15.9% clip from two years ago. His 10 steals were a bit of a drop from his 16 from two years back, but his 144 runs batted in were a gain of 13.

Overall, his offensive contributions led to a ridiculous .322/.458/.701 slash line this year. That translated to a 218 wRC+, indicating he was 118% better than league average this year. That was an improvement over his 206 wRC+ in 2022.

On top of his work at the plate, he also contributed in the field. While he’s primarily been a right fielder in his career, he spent a career-high 903 innings in center in 2024. While he didn’t receive strong marks for his work there, simply being able to play up the middle was valuable to the Yanks, given the demands of the position. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 11.2 wins above replacement on the year, a slight increase over his 11.1 fWAR in 2022.

That all-time performance made it an easy choice for voters. That’s unfortunate for Witt, who played at a level that’d be enough to win MVP in a lot of years. The Royals’ star shortstop led the majors with a .332 average and 211 hits. He slashed .332/.389/.588 with 32 homers and 31 steals while playing excellent defense. FanGraphs credited Witt with more than 10 WAR in his own right. Since Witt finished in the top three in MVP voting within his first three MLB seasons, the Royals receive an extra pick after the first round in next year’s draft.

Soto had arguably the best full season of his career, hitting 41 homers with a .288/.419/.569 slash in what may be his only year as a Yankee. This is his third top five MVP finish. Soto received 21 third-place votes. Gunnar Henderson and José Ramírez, who finished fourth and fifth respectively, were the only others to land in third on some ballots. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Tarik Skubal, Jarren Duran, Yordan Alvarez, Brent Rooker, Emmanuel Clase, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Anthony Santander, Jose Altuve, Seth Lugo, Corey Seager, Framber Valdez and Detroit reliever Tyler Holton also appeared on at least one ballot.

Full voter breakdown from BBWAA.

Guardians, Triston McKenzie Avoid Arbitration

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The Guardians and right-hander Triston McKenzie have agreed to a deal to avoid arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided on X. The Octagon client will make a salary of $1.95MM in 2025.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected McKenzie for a salary of $2.4MM next year, but he’ll actually come up shy of that number. That’s usually the case for deals agreed to at this part of the calendar.

Friday evening is the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. The two sides will still have plenty of time to negotiate the figures but clubs sometimes offer “take it or leave it” style deals ahead of the deadline for players that are borderline cases to be tendered in the first place. Such “pre-tender” deals often come in below projections, as the club is essentially telling the player to take a lower salary or else be non-tendered and sent into free agency.

It’s a remarkable position for McKenzie to be in, considering how things looked just two years ago. By the end of the 2022 season, he had thrown 344 2/3 innings with a 3.68 earned run average. He had struck out 27% of batters faced while giving out walks just 8.1% of the time. With the Guardians having a tremendous reputation for finding and developing starting pitching, it seemed as though they had found yet another rotation building block.

But McKenzie has had a rough time since then. He was injured for much of 2023, first due to a right teres major strain. He came off the IL and made a pair of starts but went right back on the shelf, that time due to a sprain in the ulnar collateral ligament of his throwing elbow. He opted for non-surgical rehab and was able to come back for two more starts late in the year.

Any hopes for a bounceback in 2024 were quickly dashed. His velocity was down and he clearly wasn’t in a good space mentally. While he wasn’t in pain, he did say in mid-April that the possibility of re-injuring himself was weighing on his mind. He was optioned to the minors in June after having made 16 starts with a 5.11 ERA. His 21.8% strikeout rate and 14.4% walk rate were both far worse than his previous work. He posted a 5.23 ERA at the Triple-A the rest of the way with roughly similar strikeout and walk rates of 23.5% and 13.9% respectively.

Despite the strong form he showed earlier in his career, the injury-wrecked season followed by a dismal performance in 2024 made McKenzie a non-tender candidate, but the two sides will instead reunite. It’s an understandable gambit for the Guards to take. Even for a lower-spending club like them, $1.95MM is almost nothing by MLB standards. If McKenzie can bounce back at all in 2025, he’d be well worth that price. They would also be able to retain him via arbitration again in 2026, so there could be a further payoff if McKenzie can put his recent rough stretch in the past.

McKenzie is now out of options, so the club won’t be able to easily send him to Triple-A again if that bounceback doesn’t come. But given their current roster, there could be a path for him to stick around. Their rotation is in rough shape, an unusual position for the club to be in. Apart from Tanner Bibee, there’s not much they can bank on. Ben Lively had a good year but is a journeyman who’s about to turn 33. Gavin Williams was hurt for much of 2024 and finished with a 4.86 ERA. Joey Cantillo has less than 40 innings in the majors and a track record of terrible control in the minors. Logan Allen had a 5.73 ERA for the year.

Offseason moves could reshape that rotation but McKenzie could earn a role in there if he looks good in the spring. Or perhaps a bullpen move would be an option, as McKenzie’s last three Triple-A appearances in 2024 were in relief. Either way, it’s a modest bet for the club to make with a decent chance at a nice payout. For McKenzie, he can put a bit more money in the bank while staying in familiar environs and not have to spend his winter sweating about finding a new job.

Rangers Sign Caleb Boushley To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers have signed right-hander Caleb Boushley to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has been assigned to Triple-A Round Rock for now but will presumably receive an invite to major league spring training.

Boushley, 31, has a small amount of major league experience. He made one appearance for the Brewers last year and two for the Twins this year. He has thrown 6 1/3 innings in the big leagues, allowing three earned runs.

He has naturally had a larger body of work in the minors. Over the past three years, he has made 80 Triple-A appearances, including 77 starts. In his 397 1/3 frames, he has a 4.55 earned run average, 18.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate.

He was outrighted off the Twins’ roster in September and was able to elect free agency at season’s end, which has led to this deal with Texas. The Rangers have plenty of rotation uncertainty, having recently lost Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Max Scherzer and José Ureña to free agency. They have interest in bringing back some guys from that group but they are reportedly planning to duck under the competitive balance tax next year, which could lead to some budgetary constraints this winter.

On paper, the current rotation includes Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, Dane Dunning, Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter and others, though there are plenty of question marks in that group. deGrom and Mahle returned from Tommy John surgery in 2024 but each of them made just three major league starts this year. Gray and Bradford missed decent chunks of the 2024 season as well. Dunning has been deployed as more of a depth/swing guy and could be a non-tender candidate. Rocker and Leiter each have less than 40 innings of major league experience.

Boushley will give the club a bit of non-roster depth. Even if he doesn’t earn a job out of camp, the Rangers might need a spot start or long reliever as the season goes along. Should Boushley get on the 40-man roster at some point, he still has options and could be freely moved to Round Rock and back, though a player can only be optioned five times in one season.

Kennedy: Red Sox Willing To Pay Competitive Balance Tax In 2025

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Red Sox brass have been signaling their intent to have an aggressive offseason, with president and CEO Sam Kennedy doubling down this week, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. As they look to navigate the next few months, they apparently don’t view the competitive balance tax as a red line. “Even if it takes us over the CBT,” said Kennedy at the owners meetings, “our priority is 90 to 95 wins, and winning the American League East, and winning the division for multiple years.”

Those comments are in line with some that Kennedy made last month, when he also referenced the 90-95 win window as well as targeting a division title. It seems the club is planning to reverse course after several years of playing things a bit more modestly.

Looking at payroll data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Sox were one of the top six spenders in each year from 2000 to 2020, a stretch in which they won four titles. But they have dropped themselves down to middle of the pack lately, including being 12th in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps not coincidentally, the results have dropped off, with the Sox finishing last in the American League east in three of the past five years.

Red Sox fans might roll their eyes after chairman Tom Werner’s “full throttle” comments last year didn’t lead to much, but that arguably makes it more notable that the Sox have been taking every opportunity to raise expectations again, as letting the fans down two years in a row would obviously be poor public relations strategy.

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke of looking to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation earlier this month. As mentioned, this is the second time that Kennedy has been forthright in stating that the club is planning to take a shot at the division, this time indicating that they might even get into tax payor status as they do so. They have already been connected to big-name free agents like Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Willy Adames, Max Fried and others.

“Is that possible? If that’s what it takes, yeah, absolutely,” Kennedy said of adding a mega deal to the club’s ledger. “We are investing more than we did last year. We intend to invest going forward. There is an extreme urgency internally to be competing for the American League East Championship and to set ourselves up for a deep postseason run in 2025 without question. The goal is to win 90 plus games to not be worrying about a wild card spot.”

Assuming the club is indeed willing to cross the tax line, that gives them a lot of spending power this winter. RosterResource currently calculates the club’s CBT number at $171MM for 2025. The lowest threshold of the tax will $241MM next year, meaning the Sox could give out contracts with about $70MM in terms of average annual value before getting to the line.

That might not even be the cap of their spending ability if they are willing to go beyond the base threshold. The Sox haven’t paid the tax since 2022, so they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. That means they would be looking at a base tax rate of just 20%, with higher rates for going beyond the three further thresholds, each one being $20MM higher than the one before.

Soto is expected to land a historic deal, with many predictions suggesting he could get something in the window of $45-50MM annually. Theoretically, it’s possible for the Sox to sign Soto and still have money for other moves, if they are willing to go over the line. Or even without signing Soto, they could sign multiple players from the next tier of free agency.

Of course, saying that you’re willing to pay the tax and then actually doing it are two different things. It’s still entirely possible that the Sox are aggressive in ways that push the payroll towars the tax line without going over. That could mean less activity in free agency while being more active on the trade market, or perhaps not doing much in either sphere.

However it plays out, that gives the club a lot of possible options in terms of upgrading a team that went 81-81 in 2024. They have some strong core players like Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and others. They have a lauded group of prospects which includes the “Big Four” of Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony, who are all on the cusp of the majors. Those players could perhaps be used as part of a mega deal for someone like Garrett Crochet, or they could be kept as the Sox address their roster with free agents instead. “Everything and anything’s on the table for us,” Kennedy said. “Free agency, trades, promotions from the minor leagues.”

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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Speculation regarding a potential offseason trade of Nolan Arenado kicked up the moment president of baseball operations John Mozeliak announced the club would take a step back and focus on player development and that they were beginning a transitional process that would see Chaim Bloom take over as president of baseball operations beginning next offseason. Unsurprisingly, that announcement was quickly followed by reports that the Cardinals indeed planned to gauge the market for interest in Arenado.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch now reports that, to no one’s surprise, the Cardinals have spent the early stages of the offseason doing just that. He adds one critical element, writing that Arenado has not specifically asked to be traded. That’s a key wrinkle in the saga, as it differs from the last time Arenado was traded. The then-Rockies third baseman was frustrated in the years following his initial extension in Colorado, as the team hadn’t put together a competitive roster. Given the circumstances leading to his last trade, it was only fair to wonder whether Arenado might waive his no-trade clause to try to facilitate a trade to a team with more of a win-now mentality than the 2025 Cardinals will have. That doesn’t appear to be the case at this time.

It’s still possible, of course, that Arenado could be on the move at some point this winter. While he apparently has not specifically requested a trade, there’s simultaneously no indication that he’s voiced a preference to remain with the Cardinals through their reset period (as teammates Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, who also have no-trade clauses, reportedly have done). Arenado’s original motivation in pursuing a trade from the Rockies and his decision to forgo the opt-out in his contract following the 2021 season stemmed from a desire to put down roots in a perennially competitive setting.

If the Cards find a deal to their liking that would send him to a clear win-now team, they’d likely present him with the scenario and he’d then have to weigh the merits of approving a deal. But, that’s a far different scenario than Arenado asking to be moved and the pressure that would put on Mozeliak, Bloom and the rest of the front office to find a deal or head into the season with a veteran who’s clearly unhappy to be on the roster.

Arenado, 34 in April, has had consecutive underwhelming seasons at the plate. He’s posted a solid but unremarkable .269/.320/.426 slash (104 wRC+) since Opening Day 2023, striking out in only 15.5% of his plate appearances but also walking at a tepid 6.8% clip. Despite all the accolades he’s amassed in his career, he’s never been a consistent source of premium contact (at least by measure of exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate). Still, he posted career-low marks in all of those categories this past season, including a particularly light 3.2% barrel rate and 31.2% hard-hit rate.

That said, Arenado remains at least an average hitter with plus bat-to-ball skills and a premium glove at the hot corner. His defensive ratings aren’t as lofty as they were when the six-time Platinum Glove winner was widely regarded as perhaps the best defensive player in Major League Baseball, regardless of position. However, he still posted emphatically positive marks in Defensive Runs Saved (6) and Outs Above Average (9). Arenado’s nine errors this year tied for his career-low mark in a 162-game season. He’s as surehanded as they come, and though his arm strength (by measure of Statcast) has continued to dip in recent seasons, his range remains elite.

As recently as 2022, Arenado was an MVP finalist who posted a .293/.358/.533 batting line with 30 homers and elite glovework. Even if he can’t return to those heights, he’s an above-average player on a contract that doesn’t exactly pay him like a superstar anyhow. Arenado is owed $74MM over the next three seasons, but the Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that sum ($5MM in both 2025 and 2026).

It’s a frontloaded deal — he’s owed $32MM, $27MM and $15MM in the next three seasons — so perhaps the hefty 2025 salary ($27MM after the Rockies’ contributions) could be a pause for some interested parties. On the other hand, a big-payroll club that’s accustomed to paying the luxury tax might not balk too much at Arenado’s effective $21.33MM average annual value, for tax purposes. His remaining guarantee and the associated AAV are generally in line with what good but non-superstar free agents like Christian Walker and Teoscar Hernandez are expected to command.

Goold notes that the Cardinals don’t feel any financial pressure at this point to shed the deal. They’ve already scaled back payroll quite a bit and could do so with further trades of shorter-term players. As such, they might not be compelled to simply move Arenado to a team that’s willing to absorb the contract but offer minimal prospects.

At the same time, if the Cardinals’ lack of financial pressure means they’d be comfortable paying down some of that remaining salary, they could in effect buy a better return. Covering even one-third of the contract would render Arenado priced comparably to the three years and $45MM that Jeimer Candelario secured in free agency last winter. Plenty of clubs might be intrigued in that scenario. It’s ultimately Arenado’s call, thanks to that no-trade protection, but to this point he’s not forcing the team’s hand.

Details On MLB’s Future Broadcasting Plans

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Back in February, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said that he wanted to be able to market a blackout-free streaming bundle including roughly half the league. That plan was largely tied to the collapse of Diamond Sports Group, though that company is now emerging from bankruptcy and will continue to operate for the time being. That seems to have kicked Manfred’s plans down the road a little bit, with Evan Drellich of The Athletic doing a deep dive this week on the current state of things.

Manfred still has his sights set on getting rid of local blackouts as part of TV/streaming packages, though it might now have to wait a few years. While some clubs that lost their broadcast deals are now letting MLB handle things, others have re-upped with Diamond. The Braves, Cardinals, Marlins, Angels, Tigers, and Rays are back with Diamond while the Royals might also join them, depending on the outcome of ongoing negotiations. But Drellich notes that none of those deals go beyond 2028.

That is significant because that is also the year that MLB’s national broadcast deals with Fox, ESPN* and Turner expire. (*As a side note, Drellich notes that MLB and ESPN have a mutual opt-out after this season but talks about that are ongoing.) The league’s hope is to have as much on the table as possible when negotiating new national deals. “Most important from my perspective is that all the deals for the Diamond clubs end no later than 2028,” Manfred says in the piece. “My interest in local rights in large part is to have them available when we do national renewals.”

The bidding could include more than those three companies that MLB currently has national deals with, as Drellich notes that executives from Apple, Amazon, CBS, Disney/ESPN, DirecTV, Fox, Netflix, NBC/Peacock, Roku, YouTube and Warner Bros.-Discovery were present at the World Series. MLB already has a deal with Roku for Sunday games, a slot previously held by Peacock. Apple has Friday Night Baseball while the Diamond clubs will be available on Amazon Prime next year. YouTube had a previous deal with MLB that ran from 2019 to 2022.

The regional sports network (RSN) model has been a huge source of revenue for all teams in the past but cord cutting has chipped away at that model. The Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies all operated without an RSN partner in 2024, with the league handling their broadcasts both for TV/cable/satellite and direct-to-consumer streaming. The Twins, Guardians, Brewers and Reds will go down that path in 2025.

Simplistically, this is bad for teams but good for fans. The clubs are losing that passive revenue, as many people previously signed up for cable/satellite bundles that included sports RSNs even if they weren’t much interested in baseball. The streaming model cuts out the middleman but requires more active uptake from fans and leads to lower revenues, at least in the short term. But for fans, this allows them to finally get around the blackouts that have been an annoying part of the RSN paradigm for decades.

Though the revenue streams aren’t as strong, the league seems to recognize that this is the way of the future and is trying to lean into it. Though as detailed by Drellich, actually following through will be complicated.

“I’d like to have all the rights available,” Manfred said. “I’d like to talk to the people who are buyers. I’d like to cut them up into packages and sell them, as many of them as possible, nationally, and then have a plan to deal with what’s left over.”

As mentioned, the league already has seven clubs on its ledger, though Drellich adds that it’s technically eight. The Mariners took control of ROOT Sports Northwest a year ago but Drellich relays that the league is involved to some degree as well. If the six or seven clubs with Diamond eventually link up with the league a few years down the line, that would be roughly half the league. The Rangers are sort of a wild card at present, as they don’t plan to continue their relationship with Diamond but haven’t yet outlined a plan for 2025, reportedly exploring the creation of their own RSN. Drellich says close to two thirds of the league could have their rights available by 2028, presumably due to other non-Diamond RSN deals expiring. Some clubs still have relationships with NBC affiliates or other broadcasters.

The issue in MLB getting the other clubs on board is that they are in very different financial positions. Broadly speaking, the larger-market clubs are in better shape, both because of stronger viewership bases and because the club and its broadcaster are often the same company. If all the clubs were cobbled together as part of some bundle which spread the profits around, that would benefit the smaller clubs while harming the larger ones.

That would naturally be unappealing to the larger clubs, though Drellich notes that a compromise could perhaps be reached by changing the overall revenue sharing. Currently, each clubs shares 48% of their local revenues (local media, ticket sales, concessions, merchandise and sponsorships). The Drellich piece suggests that greater sharing of broadcast money could be accompanied by less sharing of the other streams.

“I do think there are a combination of things that for even the very biggest teams,” Manfred says, “we can demonstrate that for the good of the game over the long haul, it’s better for everybody and better for them.”

Another complication is that the MLB Players Association would have to be involved. They don’t need to be consulted when it comes to broadcast decisions but all revenue-sharing plans need to be collectively bargained. The current collective bargaining agreement runs until December of 2026, so these matters will likely need to be hammered out in the next CBA, ahead of the aforementioned key pivot point in 2028.

“If the model changes, we will be involved in negotiating how those changes might affect the system and will ensure that the interests and priorities of the players are protected,” says Tony Clark, the head of the MLBPA. The relationship between the league and the union hasn’t been great lately, with the most recent CBA talks resulting in a lockout of more than three months that almost resulted in the 2022 season being canceled or shortened. A deal did get done and the season was spared, but some key issues went unaddressed and will likely come up again, such as an international draft. Then there’s the ever-present CBA issues like salaries, the competitive balance tax and so on.

Presumably, Manfred won’t want another work stoppage just ahead of his big pitch to potential broadcasters. Anything that hurts fan interest in the game would naturally make those rights less appealing, but the league’s motivation to get a deal done will obviously be contingent on how effectively they can negotiate all CBA issues with the players. The two sides agreed in July of this year to have CBT money redirected to those clubs who lost broadcast revenue, so perhaps some of this could be accomplished outside of full CBA talks.

There are many balls in the air here and a few years for them to bounce around, but Manfred will need to find a path forward that satisfies the owners as well as the players. If he succeeds, it could be good for growing the game by improving fan access to the product. An entrenchment of the current paradigm, on the other hand, could perhaps increase fan dissatisfaction with the inequalities that impact competitive balance.

How it all plays out will lead to ripple effects that impact the on-field product. The Padres and Twins have already scaled back their payrolls in response to the shifting landscape. This seemed to have an impact on last winter’s market, with several free agents settling for deals that fell well below initial projections. Clubs like the Cardinals and Rangers are also planning to dial things back next year.

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