Hazen, Hall On D-Backs’ Offseason Plans
Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen and president Derrick Hall chatted about the organization’s plans after the culmination of an exciting season, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.
Both suggested an interest in continuity while also contemplating the possibility of some changes in the makeup of the roster. Certainly, there’ll be some complications as the organization seeks ways to improve the on-field result. Hazen downplayed financial considerations as a catalyst for roster moves, but both he and Hall acknowledged their import.
“I’m not anticipating a lot of challenges with being able to bring the group back as constituted if, in fact, that’s what we chose to do,” said Hazen. While “some changes” are to be anticipated, he said, “I don’t think a large majority of that will be driven by (finances) specifically.”
Hall was a bit more explicit about the limitations. Suggesting that the team has been a bit hasty in doubling down on prior quality seasons, he cited “the need for sustainability” in an offseason approach. Ultimately, said Hall, “we have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”
It’s hard to guess just what kind of creative options might conceivably be pursued. The team could consider trading away some of its relatively more expensive players, though that seems to be quite a challenge from the outside. In all likelihood, Arizona would need to hang onto significant future obligations (or sweeten the pot with prospects) to move Zack Greinke or Yasmany Tomas. Trading or non-tendering arb-eligible players could result in some savings, though in almost all cases that would mean opening up corresponding holes.
While the Snakes have a relatively modest $60.5MM committed to 2018 payroll, that sum accounts for just four players. Indeed, more than half is ticketed for Greinke alone, which helps to illustrate just how relatively massive that commitment was and is for this organization. But that’s not the only source of salary. As Piecoro notes, the MLBTR arb projections call for a hefty tally of just over $50MM for Arizona.
This year, the D-Backs opened with a payroll in the $93MM range and ultimately topped out at around $105MM, per Piecoro. In the past, the Opening Day balance sheet has been as high as $112MM. Clearly, though, the club will approach or exceed that amount just by holding pat.
None of the above numbers account for star outfielder J.D. Martinez, who was added at the deadline and is now headed for free agency. There are others, too, who’ll need to be replaced — especially closer Fernando Rodney, relievers Jorge De La Rosa and David Hernandez, and catcher Chris Iannetta. Finding new players for those roles may not be prohibitively expensive, though as ever there’s generally a tradeoff between the cost and the quality of an asset.
Regarding Martinez, who’s expected to command a huge commitment after a monster season, the D-Backs say they’ll at least try to facilitate a return. In Hazen’s words, the club will “certainly stay engaged” with Martinez. Adding the kind of annual salary that the slugger could command would surely require a significant payroll boost and/or the shedding of some other major commitments.
Red Sox Fire John Farrell
The Red Sox have announced that John Farrell will not return as manager. The team had previously exercised its 2018 club option over the skipper, but will now change course and pursue another option.
A search is set to begin immediately, per the club announcement. The Mets, Phillies, and Tigers are also looking for new managers at this point, so there will be some competition.
Farrell took over in Boston after the team’s ill-fated 2012 season. The relationship got off to quite a start, as the Sox ran up 97 wins and streaked to a World Series win in 2013.
Two-straight last-place divisional finishes followed, however, leading to the departure of then-GM Ben Cherington. His replacement at the top of the baseball ops pyramid, Dave Dombrowski, decided to retain Farrell for each of the last two seasons.
Regular-season results have followed, as the organization added significant new pieces and paced the AL East with 93 wins in both 2016 and 2017. Unfortunately, though, the postseason results have also been the same: consecutive first-round wash-outs.
Of course, there’s only so much Farrell could have done differently to stave off elimination. The Sox were swept last year by the eventual American League champion Indians. And this year, the team ran into an Astros buzzsaw, rebounding to avoid another sweep and make the fourth game competitive but ultimately falling short.
Farrell’s tenure had its ups and downs off of the field as well. He battled through lymphoma during his tenure. And Farrell also kicked up some controversy when he and his wife divorced and rumors arose of a relationship with a local reporter.
Ultimately, it seems the Boston higher-ups felt that gains could be achieved by pursuing a new direction. Plenty of names have been tossed around in the immediate aftermath of the move, though as yet no clear connections have been made. Clearly, Boston will be looking for someone that can move the team into and through the postseason, though otherwise little is known. Dombrowski is expected to meet with the media later this morning.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
With the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft locked up following an aggressive summer fire sale, the Tigers are set for an offseason unlike any Detroit has seen in the past decade — one of a rebuilding team looking toward the future rather than looking toward next season’s playoff race.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Miguel Cabrera: $192MM through 2023
- Jordan Zimmermann: $74MM through 2020
- Victor Martinez: $18MM through 2018
- Ian Kinsler: $11MM through 2018 (salary rises to $12MM if Kinsler wins a Gold Glove Award)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Andrew Romine (5.049) – $1.9MM projected salary
- Jose Iglesias (5.036) – $5.6MM
- Alex Presley (4.056) – $1.1MM
- Alex Wilson (4.038) – $2.1MM
- Nicholas Castellanos (4.029) – $7.6MM
- Bruce Rondon (3.097) – $1.2MM
- Shane Greene (3.075) – $1.7MM
- James McCann (3.028) – $2.3MM
- Bryan Holaday (3.025) – $700K
- Blaine Hardy (2.132) – $800K
- Non-tender candidates: Romine, Rondon, Presley, Holaday, Hardy
Option Decisions
- Anibal Sanchez: $16MM club option with a $5MM buyout
Other Financial Obligations
- $8MM to the Astros in 2018 and in 2019 for Justin Verlander
- $6MM to the Rangers in 2018-20 for Prince Fielder
Free Agents
- None
[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart | Detroit Tigers Payroll Outlook]
One calendar year ago, the question facing the Tigers was whether they’d embark on a rebuild or whether they’d take aim at contending with an aging core one more time. The trade of Cameron Maybin on the first day of the 2016-17 offseason pointed toward the former of those two options, but it wasn’t until this past July that the Tigers emphatically made their organizational overhaul a reality. From July 18 through Aug. 31, Detroit traded the likes of J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila, Justin Upton and franchise icon Justin Verlander for young players and salary relief.
Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are the remaining core pieces of the Tigers’ most recent AL Central title in 2014, but that’s not likely to be the case for long. While Cabrera’s albatross contract, significant dip in productivity and pair of herniated disks in his back make him an immovable trade asset, Kinsler will enter the offseason as perhaps the likeliest player in all of baseball to be traded. While he had a down year at the plate, the 35-year-old is affordable in 2018, plays premium defense at second base and brings a wealth of postseason experience to hopeful contenders.
The Angels and Brewers both reportedly had interest in him prior to the non-waiver deadline, and neither is especially settled at second base at present. Other speculative fits include the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets. Regardless of the destination, Kinsler seems likely to move for some younger pieces. While the Tigers would love to trade Jordan Zimmermann and Victor Martinez to clear payroll and make room for younger options, both of those contracts seem entirely immovable. Martinez may even simply be a release candidate, per Evan Woodbery of MLive.com.
Aside from Kinsler, the Tigers still possess a few intriguing trade options. Nicholas Castellanos showed interesting power and some upside in his batted-ball profile, but his defense was a disaster both at third base and especially in right field. With a fairly sizable bump in his salary projected, some clubs may not see that much surplus value; certainly a contending team would have reservations about plugging him into third base or right field, though perhaps a team like the Braves that is more on the fringes and still hunting for upside would roll the dice.
Other candidates to be moved include Jose Iglesias and breakout reliever Shane Greene. Iglesias only has a year to go on his deal and hasn’t hit much in the past two seasons, but he’s an affordable superlative defender at a premium position. Contenders in need of infield defense should at least kick the tires. There’s no rush to move Greene, who finished the year as the closer in Detroit, but controllable relief arms are always of interest on the trade market. Greene posted a 2.66 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate in 67 2/3 innings this season, but teams may be wary of his 4.52 BB/9 rate and an 8.6 percent swinging-strike rate that doesn’t gel with his more impressive K/9 mark. He’s a lock to be tendered and could be shopped next summer if he’s not moved in the offseason.
One name that fans of other teams will dream on is 2016 Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer, whose name was frequently speculated upon prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. However, a trade of Fulmer strikes me as decidedly unlikely for a number of reasons, with last month’s elbow surgery chief among them. Impressive as Fulmer’s first two seasons were, teams are going to be reluctant to give maximum value for a player that hasn’t taken the mound since undergoing surgery to reposition his ulnar nerve.
Beyond that, Fulmer is controllable for five more seasons and won’t even reach arbitration eligibility until next winter. The Tigers shouldn’t feel any urgent rush to take the best offer currently presented, and three months of a healthy Fulmer would significantly up his trade stock for next summer’s trading season. Make no mistake about it, Fulmer’s name will pop up on the rumor circuit this winter, but it seems difficult to envision the Tigers and another club reaching the nexus of “fair value” in Detroit’s eyes and a slightly discounted return from a team that will feel it is taking on at least some degree of injury risk.
Turning to what the Tigers could look to actually acquire this offseason, the team is set at a variety of positions. Jeimer Candelario, who came to the Tigers in the return for Wilson and Avila, will get every opportunity to cement himself as a slugging third baseman and one of the future faces of the franchise in 2018. Cabrera will return at first base or designated hitter (depending on what’s done with Martinez), and the club seems likely to go with James McCann and John Hicks again behind the plate rather than invest dollars or prospects in acquiring a new catcher.
Mikie Mahtook performed well enough in center field to earn another look next year, and the team could play Castellanos in the outfield if he’s retained. Still, the Tigers ran out a rather uninspiring group of corner options this winter, so they could look at their unsettled corner situation as a means of catching lightning in a bottle as they did with they signed J.D. Martinez in the first place. Certainly, that’s easier said than done, but looking to the trade market for blocked outfielders (the Cardinals, for instance, have a surplus there) or adding a once-well-regarded player with some youth seem like a better avenue than a veteran stopgap in the Seth Smith or Melky Cabrera mold. Alternatively, the corner outfield opening represents a reasonable spot for the Tigers to take aim with the top pick in this December’s Rule 5 Draft.
Overall, the group of position players leaves some clear and obvious holes: at least one corner outfielder will need to be brought into the mix, and the Tigers look like a team that will eventually acquire some affordable up-the-middle stopgaps in the infield. Dixon Machado could be called upon to man shortstop in the event of an Iglesias trade, but given his lack of track record, at least one infielder (possibly two) that can play shortstop and second base with a bit more offensive upside than Andrew Romine would prove to be useful pursuits. The free-agent market is admittedly somewhat barren, though myriad trade opportunities will present themselves, with Jurickson Profar and Aledmys Diaz among the controllable infield candidates to change hands this winter.
Turning to the pitching staff, Detroit will have Fulmer, Zimmermann, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd all returning in 2018 (barring trades), but finding a veteran to step into the fifth slot in hopes of eating some innings and eventually turning into a summer trade piece seems prudent. The Tigers could play it safe and look for a fairly reliable source of innings with limited upside (e.g. Ricky Nolasco, Miguel Gonzalez), but they’d be better served to pursue a more boom-or-bust option that could bring back more in a trade (e.g. Chris Tillman). They’re also one of several non-contending teams that could promise righty Miles Mikolas a rotation spot as he looks to return from a strong run in Japan — a move that won’t come with excessive financial risk but could produce a useful trade chip. We haven’t seen this team in this position before, though, so it’s tough to predict exactly which avenue(s) the front office will pursue in rounding out the rotation.
The Tigers’ bullpen is an even larger question mark. Greene is currently the closer, and it’s safe to expect Alex Wilson and probably Daniel Stumpf to return. But Bruce Rondon and Blaine Hardy are likely non-tenders. Drew VerHagen is out of options and could be an offseason 40-man casualty. Top prospect Joe Jimenez looked wildly overmatched in his first season of MLB experience, but he’ll get another crack at some point in 2018. That said, the Tigers have room to add multiple free-agent relievers, and while they’ll probably cast a wide net in adding several rebound candidates on minor league deals, it’d be a surprise if they didn’t bring in at least one arm on a big league deal.
Detroit won’t, and shouldn’t, pay top dollar for any bullpen upgrades, but their complete lack of certainty among the relief corps should give Avila and his staff the ability to be opportunistic late in the winter. With the Tigers unlikely to spend too heavily elsewhere, they could snatch up a few of the relievers who see their markets fall out from underneath them and take lower-than-expected deals in January and February. As with whoever the Tigers settle on for a fifth starter, those free-agent relief acquisitions could very well become trade commodities down the line. If not, they’re unlikely to be expensive and can be cut loose to give opportunities to younger arms.
A year ago at this time, my outlook on the Tigers’ offseason focused on how they could trim payroll while still keeping enough pieces around to contend in 2017. That approach won’t be necessary this winter, and it shouldn’t be a surprise to hear virtually anyone on the Tigers’ active roster surface in trade talks over the next five-plus months. Moves that we haven’t typically associated with the Tigers in the past, such as selecting one or more players in the Rule 5 Draft, buying low on rebound candidates in free agency and trading for change-of-scenery candidates (as they successfully did with Mahtook last offseason) could all be on the table this time around.
It’s a new era in Detroit as the team gears toward a youth movement with the top picks in both the Rule 5 Draft and next June’s amateur draft. The Tigers have already cut the sum of their guaranteed contracts owed in 2018 from $138.1MM this time last year to $97MM at present (not including projected arbitration salaries). That number figures to dip further if and when Kinsler is traded, but that should be just one of many moves in an active offseason for Avila and his staff.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Twins, Sano, DeSclafani, Mikolas
The Twins announced a few baseball operations changes on Tuesday, including the hiring of 27-year-old Jeremy Zoll as the team’s new director of minor league operations. Brad Steil, who had previously been the team’s farm director since 2013, will now instead head up the Twins’ pro scouting department. Zoll has spent the past few seasons in the Dodgers organization, most recently holding the title of assistant director of player development. Zoll has also worked as an advance scouting coordinator with the Angels. “We’re really fortunate and excited to have him,” said chief baseball officer Derek Falvey of the newly hired Zoll (link via MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger). “He came in highly recommended from the people he worked with and around. He’ll bring some new ideas into what we’re doing developmentally.”
A bit more from around the league…
- While it’s been suggested that surgery isn’t expected for Twins slugger Miguel Sano, GM Thad Levine said today that surgery is still an option for the third baseman’s ailing shin (via Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). Levine painted surgery as a last resort, however, and said the team will explore other avenues. A decision will be made sooner rather than later though, as the procedure Sano would theoretically require would come with an eight-week recovery, so the Twins understandably don’t want to wait too long before making the call. Whether Sano requires surgery or avoids going under the knife, manager Paul Molitor said today that he doesn’t think Sano needs to play in the Dominican Winter League this year, per Berardino.
- In some other notable injury news, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that Reds righty Anthony DeSclafani threw seven innings in an instructional league start today. That could be DeSclafani’s final start of instructional league play, though it’s nonetheless a positive step for a key part of the Cincinnati pitching staff after missing the entire 2017 season. DeSclafani was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament early in the year and was never able to make it back to a Major League mound during the regular season.
- The Rangers could have interest in right-hander Miles Mikolas as he eyes a return to the Majors after a strong three-year run in Japan, writes T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. (We noted at MLBTR last week that Mikolas was aiming for an MLB comeback.) Limiting walks is high on the Rangers’ wishlist in terms of offseason pitching targets, and Mikolas excelled in that area over his three-year career with the Yomiuri Giants, Sullivan points out. He also notes that the Rangers have had success on the Japanese market in the past under GM Jon Daniels, getting value out of signings such as Colby Lewis, Yu Darvish and Tony Barnette. Obviously, a pursuit of Mikolas would more closely resemble the modest contracts given to Lewis and Barnette than the massive financial commitment that the Rangers spent to acquire Darvish, but Sullivan notes that Texas is likely to explore as many avenues to rotation upgrades as possible this winter. Mikolas’ most recent stint in the Majors came with the Rangers back in 2014.
Rangers Outright Gosselin, Espino, Middlebrooks, Hoying
The Rangers announced on Tuesday that infielders Phil Gosselin and Will Middlebrooks, right-hander Paolo Espino and outfielder Jared Hoying have cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Round Rock. Both Gosselin and Middlebrooks have rejected the assignment in favor of free agency, per the team. The Rangers’ 40-man roster is now at 36 players, though two of those vacancies are presumably ticketed for right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez and infielder Hanser Alberto, each of whom is on the 60-day disabled list.
Texas claimed Gosselin, 29, off waivers from the Pirates back in August, though he only appeared in 12 games and logged eight plate appearances. Gosselin struggled between both organizations this season, but he did hit .288/.340/.411 in 358 plate appearances at the MLB level from 2015-16.
Middlebrooks, meanwhile, took 39 plate appearances over the course of 22 games and hit just .211/.321/.368. He did post a .258/.327/.529 batting line and club 23 homers over the life of 342 PAs with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate. It’s been quite some time since the now-29-year-old Middlebrooks looked like a possible rising star, but he’s displayed quality power numbers in the minors in each of the past two seasons and should land another minors pact this winter.
The 30-year-old Espino made his MLB debut this season with the Brewers but logged a 6.00 ERA and a 20-to-10 K/BB ratio in 24 innings. A veteran of 11 minor league seasons, Espino has a 3.76 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 across 505 1/3 career innings in Triple-A.
As for Hoying, the 28-year-old has been up and down with Texas over the past two years, hitting a combined .220/.262/.288 in 126 plate appearances. He’s a career .254/.308/.465 hitter in parts of five Triple-A seasons.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Lucroy
Generally, of course, Jonathan Lucroy‘s stock is down on the heels of a disappointing season. He entered the year with a chance at earning Russell Martin-type money — $82MM over five years — but now won’t scrape that stratosphere.
That said, there’s still a lot of value in the veteran. Just how much? Let’s take a look.
First and foremost, it’s important to note just how good Lucroy was from 2012 through 2016. After all, there’s a reason that folks thought he could meet or exceed that Martin contract. In 641 games over that span, Lucroy posted an excellent .291/.353/.465 batting line that rated about twenty percent above the league-average output. For a catcher that also was regarded among the best at defending his position, those are monster numbers.
That five-year run serves as a notable backdrop for what happened in 2017. Lucroy struggled badly out of the gates, slashing just .242/.297/.338 in his 306 plate appearances with the Rangers. He hit just four home runs in that stretch after drilling 24 in the prior season in 544 trips to the plate. Just as suddenly, though, Lucroy bounced back upon his summer trade to the Rockies. In his 175 turns, the veteran posted a .310/.429/.437 mark while drawing 27 walks against just 19 strikeouts. The power did not fully return — he hit only two more long balls — but clearly Lucroy was again an above-average offensive performer, even after accounting for the altitude boost.
So, how does one frame the recent years? Was the first half of 2017 just a detour? Or should we figure in Lucroy’s tepid 2015 season and isolate his excellent 2016 season as the outlier? What about that waning power?
In all likelihood, clubs will land somewhere in the middle on all of this. It’s certainly quite promising that Lucroy has restored his plate discipline nearly to the levels it stood in 2014, when he walked (10.1%) nearly as often as he struck out (10.8%) over 655 plate appearances. But his isolated slugging mark has now sat below the league average in two of the past three seasons. Plus, Lucroy managed only an anemic 22.3% hard-hit rate in 2017 while his groundball rate soared to over fifty percent for the first time in his career.
Of course, there’s still the matter of Lucroy’s work in the field to be accounted for. There was a time when his mastery of the dark arts behind the dish significantly bolstered the 31-year-old’s value. When he posted 6.2 fWAR in 2014, that was arguably an understatement, as it failed to account for Lucroy’s otherworldly framing skills and management of the pitching staff over a 153-game grind.
Now, the picture seems quite a bit different. Framing metrics panned Lucroy’s work over the first half of 2017. Though he ticked upward in Colorado, it’s still a far sight from the days when Lucroy was the poster child for the newly illuminated art of strike gathering. Still, he drew positive grades as recently as 2016, and it would be rather surprising for such a remarkable degradation in skill to occur so suddenly, so perhaps there’s a bounceback (or another explanation) here. And it’s worth noting that Lucroy has drawn plaudits for his presence on the defensive side from Rockies skipper Bud Black.
All told, the signals leave quite a lot of room for interpretation. No doubt many organizations will feel differently than others about what to expect from Lucroy. All will value the fact that he has been one of only four catchers to top three thousand plate appearances since the start of 2012 (and one of only three to post more than twenty WAR in that span). He seems clearly worthy of being awarded a regular job, but guessing at an earning range is more difficult. And that depends, too, on market factors.
Obviously there’s reason to expect that the Rockies could be interested in a return. The team has indicated satisfaction with Lucroy’s work and could use him just as much next year as this, though there are also internal options to be considered. Lucroy himself has made clear he’d welcome a chance to return. Beyond that, the possibilities are a bit more difficult to suss out. Few contenders have really clear needs behind the plate, though contending organizations such as the Diamondbacks, Angels, and perhaps Nationals could consider a move.
Other possible suitors could yet emerge. But Lucroy will face some competition. It helps that Kurt Suzuki has decided to remain with the Braves. But Welington Castillo is likely to decline his player option and Alex Avila will return to the open market. Chris Iannetta had a strong year, and he’s one of several solid veterans that may represent more cost-conscious options for organizations that prefer a timeshare at the position rather than paying more to land a heavily-used regular.
Recent comps are of limited utility, too. Big dollars have gone to Martin and Brian McCann (five years, $85MM), but as noted at the outset that seems highly unlikely here. Looking at other significant, multi-year deals, though, there’s a big gulf between those larger contracts and the three-year pacts signed by Jason Castro ($24.5MM) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($21MM). Lucroy has a strong argument to out-earn that pair, so it seems reasonable to anticipate at least a three-year arrangement with some possibility for a fourth.
Perhaps Francisco Cervelli‘s three-year, $31MM extension represents a more noteworthy marker in this case. It’s telling, too, that Matt Wieters was guaranteed $21MM over two years despite a clearly inferior record to that of Lucroy, perhaps further suggesting that Lucroy ought to command an eight-figure annual commitment. Ultimately, it’s easy to imagine pursuit by two or more determined organizations pushing up the guarantee past the Cervelli level. Demand is less than crystal clear, so there’s some downside risk here as well, though it helps that Lucroy will not be subject to a qualifying offer since he was dealt in the middle of the season. Regardless of how it all shakes out, two things are clear after Lucroy’s 2017 campaign: he won’t be paid like the top-flight player he was for the prior five seasons, but he’ll still earn a hefty commitment when he hits the open market for the first time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL Notes: Allen, Sano, Beckham, Rangers, Claudio
The Twins have decided to part ways with pitching coach Neil Allen, as La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune writes. While Paul Molitor will remain as the manager after inking a new deal, the organization is now on the market for a new hand to guide the pitching staff. Minnesota is sure to enter the offseason in search of ways to boost the productivity of its rotation after a season in which only two starters (Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios) turned in high-quality overall campaigns. While others showed signs at times — Kyle Gibson finished strong, for example — there’s clearly room to improve through both new acquisitions and internal development.
Here’s more from the American League:
- In other Twins news, the organization does not presently expect Miguel Sano to require surgery to address his shin injury, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Though there have been some prior indications to the contrary, a surgical option would be an “extreme” measure and isn’t on the table at this point, per the report. Berardino adds that young reliever J.T. Chargois is also not under consideration for a surgical approach despite missing virtually all of the season due to elbow problems. You’ll also find some player reactions to the coaching staff decisions at the link.
- What can the Orioles expect from shortstop Tim Beckham in 2018? Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun takes an interesting look at Beckham’s two months in Baltimore, explaining that Beckham no longer consistently made high-quality contact and reverted to his high-strikeout ways after his outstanding performance in August. All in all, Meoli sees signs of optimism despite Beckham’s inconsistencies. For a team with other significant needs, especially in the rotation, there’s probably little choice but to roll with Beckham — whose deadline acquisition still looks like an excellent move — and hope for the best.
- Another organization that figures to focus on pitching this winter, the Rangers, need to add volume to fill out their rotation, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reasons. The club likely won’t have the cash needed to add impact arms and needs to account for many spots on its rotation depth chart, beyond the five pitchers that’ll start the year in the rotation. Grant’s discussion drives home the challenge facing the Texas front office and the many moving parts involved.
- Meanwhile, the Rangers have authorized southpaw Alex Claudio to play in the Puerto Rican winter league despite his heavy usage this year, as Gerry Fraley of the Morning News writes. Claudio has now established himself as a quality late-inning piece after turning in 82 2/3 frames of 2.50 ERA ball, with just 6.1 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 but a dominating 66.7% groundball rate on the year. While GM Jon Daniels says the club was inclined initially to protect Claudio, he notes that the reliever has succeeded based upon a routine that has long included winter ball stints. This year, moreover, the devastation of Hurricane Maria has pushed back and shortened the schedule.
Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2018
As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the seventh year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2018. The number in parentheses next to each player is his estimated Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2017 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement). The Super Two cutoff is 2.123.
Angels (11)
- Martin Maldonado (5.156) – $2.8MM
- Garrett Richards (5.148) – $7.0MM
- Blake Wood (5.131) – $2.2MM
- Matt Shoemaker (3.166) – $4.4MM
- Tyler Skaggs (3.135) – $1.9MM
- Blake Parker (3.036) – $1.7MM
- Jose Alvarez (3.035) – $1.1MM
- C.J. Cron (3.097) – $2.8MM
- Cam Bedrosian (2.153) – $1.2MM
- Andrew Heaney (2.150) – $800K
- J.C. Ramirez (2.139) – $2.6MM
Astros (9)
- Dallas Keuchel (5.089) – $12.6MM
- Evan Gattis (5.000) – $6.6MM
- Mike Fiers (4.085) – $5.7MM
- Collin McHugh (4.085) – $4.8MM
- George Springer (3.166) – $8.9MM
- Brad Peacock (3.165) – $2.9MM
- Jake Marisnick (3.145) – $2.0MM
- Ken Giles (3.113) – $5.0MM
- Lance McCullers (2.140) – $2.6MM
Athletics (8)
- Chris Hatcher (4.146) – $2.2MM
- Khris Davis (4.104) – $11.1MM
- Liam Hendriks (4.038) – $1.9MM
- Marcus Semien (3.118) – $3.2MM
- Josh Phegley (3.114) – $1.1MM
- Blake Treinen (3.065) – $2.3MM
- Jake Smolinski (3.016) – $700K
- Kendall Graveman (3.014) – $2.6MM
Blue Jays (8)
- Josh Donaldson (5.158) – $20.7MM
- Aaron Loup (5.040) – $1.8MM
- Ezequiel Carrera (4.039) – $1.9MM
- Marcus Stroman (3.148) – $7.2MM
- Kevin Pillar (3.113) – $4.0MM
- Aaron Sanchez (3.069) – $1.9MM
- Devon Travis (3.000) – $1.7MM
- Roberto Osuna (3.000) – $5.6MM
- Dominic Leone (2.123) – $1.2MM
Braves (5)
- Arodys Vizcaino (4.168) – $3.7MM
- Chase Whitley (3.099) – $1.0MM
- Sam Freeman (3.066) – $1.2MM
- Dan Winkler (3.000) – $800K
- Mike Foltynewicz (2.163) – $2.7MM
Brewers (6)
- Jeremy Jeffress (4.104) – $2.6MM
- Stephen Vogt (4.084) – $3.9MM
- Jonathan Villar (3.113) – $3.0MM
- Jimmy Nelson (3.107) – $4.7MM
- Hernan Perez (3.079) – $2.2MM
- Corey Knebel (2.151) – $$4.1MM
Cardinals (4)
- Marcell Ozuna (4.124) – $10.9MM
- Michael Wacha (4.062) – $5.9MM
- Tyler Lyons (3.070) – $1.3MM
- Randal Grichuk (3.033) – $2.8MM
Cubs (6)
- Justin Wilson (5.035) – $4.3MM
- Justin Grimm (4.153) – $2.4MM
- Kyle Hendricks (3.081) – $4.9MM
- Tommy La Stella (3.057) – $1.0MM
- Kris Bryant (2.171) – $8.9MM
- Addison Russell (2.167) – $2.3MM
Diamondbacks (13)
- Patrick Corbin (5.105) – $8.3MM
- Randall Delgado (5.100) – $2.5MM
- A.J. Pollock (5.052) – $8.5MM
- Shelby Miller (4.166) – $4.9MM
- Brad Boxberger (4.109) – $1.9MM
- Chris Owings (4.027) – $3.8MM
- Chris Herrmann (4.001) – $1.4MM
- Taijuan Walker (3.142) – $5.0MM
- David Peralta (3.120) – $3.8MM
- Nick Ahmed (3.054) – $1.1MM
- Jake Lamb (3.053) – $4.7MM
- Andrew Chafin (3.020) – $1.2MM
- Robbie Ray (3.007) – $4.2MM
Dodgers (8)
- Yasmani Grandal (5.115) – $7.7MM
- Alex Wood (4.123) – $6.4MM
- Tony Cingrani (4.088) – $2.2MM
- Josh Fields (4.083) – $2.2MM
- Pedro Baez (3.059) – $1.5MM
- Enrique Hernandez (3.054) – $1.3MM
- Joc Pederson (3.028) – $2.0MM
- Yimi Garcia (3.004) – $700K
Giants (5)
- Will Smith (4.155) – $2.5MM
- Cory Gearrin (4.136) – $1.6MM
- Sam Dyson (3.142) – $4.6MM
- Joe Panik (3.100) – $3.5MM
- Hunter Strickland (2.163) – $1.7MM
Indians (7)
- Lonnie Chisenhall (5.158) – $5.8MM
- Zach McAllister (5.077) – $2.4MM
- Cody Allen (5.076) – $10.8MM
- Dan Otero (4.124) – $1.4MM
- Danny Salazar (3.162) – $5.2MM
- Trevor Bauer (3.158) – $7.7MM
- Abraham Almonte (3.052) – $1.1MM
Mariners (7)
- David Phelps (5.156) – $5.8MM
- Andrew Romine (5.049) – $1.9MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (4.158) – $4.7MM
- Nick Vincent (4.067) – $2.7MM
- Mike Zunino (3.165) – $3.2MM
- James Paxton (3.151) – $5.6MM
- Mike Morin (3.030) – $700K
Marlins (5)
- Derek Dietrich (3.151) – $3.2MM
- Dan Straily (3.126) – $4.6MM
- Justin Bour (3.064) – $3.5MM
- Miguel Rojas (3.043) – $1.1MM
- J.T. Realmuto (3.038) – $4.2MM
Mets (9)
- Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM
- A.J. Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM
- Jeurys Familia (5.023) – $7.4MM
- Zack Wheeler (4.098) – $1.9MM
- Travis d’Arnaud (4.044) – $3.4MM
- Wilmer Flores (4.003) – $3.7MM
- Jacob deGrom (3.139) – $9.2MM
- Noah Syndergaard (2.149) – $1.9MM
- Hansel Robles (2.129) – $1.0MM
Nationals (3)
- Anthony Rendon (4.130) – $11.5MM
- Tanner Roark (4.055) – $7.5MM
- Michael Taylor (3.010) – $2.3MM
Orioles (7)
- Zach Britton (5.158) – $12.2MM
- Brad Brach (5.063) – $5.2MM
- Manny Machado (5.056) – $17.3MM
- Jonathan Schoop (4.027) – $9.1MM
- Kevin Gausman (3.151) – $6.8MM
- Caleb Joseph (3.145) – $1.4MM
- Tim Beckham (3.134) – $3.1MM
Padres (7)
- Freddy Galvis (5.021) – $7.4MM
- Brad Hand (4.092) – $3.8MM
- Carter Capps (4.133) – $1.3MM
- Robbie Erlin (3.078) – $700K
- Kirby Yates (3.021) – $1.1MM
- Cory Spangenberg (3.016) – $2.0MM
- Matt Szczur (2.134) – $800K
Phillies (4)
- Cesar Hernandez (3.154) – $4.7MM
- Cameron Rupp (3.089) – $2.1MM
- Luis Garcia (3.006) – $1.4MM
- Maikel Franco (2.170) – $3.6MM
Pirates (4)
- Jordy Mercer (5.095) – $6.5MM
- George Kontos (4.171) – $2.7MM
- Gerrit Cole (4.111) – $7.5MM
- Felipe Rivero (2.162) – $3.1MM
Rangers (4)
- Jake Diekman (5.050) – $2.8MM
- Jurickson Profar (3.165) – $1.1MM
- Keone Kela (3.000) – $1.2MM
- Ryan Rua (2.129) – $900K
Rays (9)
- Adeiny Hechavarria (5.060) – $5.0MM
- Dan Jennings (4.171) – $2.5MM
- Corey Dickerson (4.101) – $6.4MM
- Brad Miller (4.094) – $4.4MM
- Jake Odorizzi (4.042) – $6.5MM
- Jesus Sucre (3.137) – $1.3MM
- Alex Colome (3.118) – $5.5MM
- Steven Souza (3.072) – $3.6MM
- Matt Duffy (3.059) – $900K
Red Sox (13)
- Joe Kelly (5.029) – $3.6MM
- Drew Pomeranz (5.013) – $9.1MM
- Tyler Thornburg (4.057) – $2.1MM
- Brock Holt (4.052) – $2.0MM
- Xander Bogaerts (4.042) – $7.6MM
- Jackie Bradley (3.150) – $5.9MM
- Sandy Leon (3.149) – $2.1MM
- Steven Wright (3.089) – $1.2MM
- Mookie Betts (3.070) – $8.2MM
- Brandon Workman (3.115) – $900K
- Christian Vazquez (3.031) – $1.5MM
- Carson Smith (3.028) – $1.1MM
- Eduardo Rodriguez (2.130) – $2.7MM
Reds (6)
- Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
- Billy Hamilton (4.028) – $5.0MM
- Anthony DeSclafani (3.062) – $1.1MM
- Eugenio Suarez (3.061) – $4.4MM
- Michael Lorenzen (2.159) – $1.4MM
Rockies (5)
- DJ LeMahieu (5.128) – $8.8MM
- Charlie Blackmon (5.102) – $13.4MM
- Chad Bettis (3.096) – $1.5MM
- Chris Rusin (3.092) – $1.4MM
- Zach Rosscup (2.164) – $600K
Royals (3)
- Kelvin Herrera (5.157) – $8.3MM
- Brandon Maurer (4.089) – $3.8MM
- Nate Karns (3.033) – $1.4MM
- Jorge Soler (2.143) – $1.1MM if he chooses to opt into arbitration. Otherwise, contract calls for $4MM each season from 2018-20.
Tigers (6)
- Jose Iglesias (5.036) – $5.6MM
- Alex Wilson (4.038) – $2.1MM
- Nick Castellanos (4.029) – $7.6MM
- Shane Greene (3.075) – $1.7MM
- James McCann (3.028) – $2.3MM
- Blaine Hardy (2.130) – $800K
Twins (7)
- Eduardo Escobar (5.128) – $4.9MM
- Kyle Gibson (4.039) – $5.3MM
- Ryan Pressly (4.039) – $1.6MM
- Ehire Adrianza (3.131) – $1.0MM
- Robbie Grossman (3.060) – $2.4MM
- Trevor May (3.051) – $600K
White Sox (7)
- Avisail Garcia (4.167) – $6.7MM
- Luis Avilan (4.146) – $2.3MM
- Jose Abreu (4.000) – $17.9MM
- Danny Farquhar (3.135) – $1.5MM
- Leury Garcia (3.025) – $1.2MM
- Carlos Rodon (2.168) – $2.0MM
- Yolmer Sanchez (2.134) – $2.1MM
Yankees (8)
- Adam Warren (5.036) – $3.1MM
- Didi Gregorius (4.159) – $9.0MM
- Dellin Betances (4.078) – $4.4MM
- Sonny Gray (4.061) – $6.6MM
- Austin Romine (4.045) – $1.2MM
- Aaron Hicks (4.041) – $2.9MM
- Tommy Kahnle (3.015) – $1.3MM
- Chasen Shreve (2.167) – $900K
Brandon Guyer To Undergo Surgery
Indians outfielder Brandon Guyer is set to undergo surgery on his left wrist, Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal reports on Twitter. The club provided a bit more detail in an announcement, noting that the procedure will involve a repair of the extensor tendon.
At this point, it’s not clear how long Guyer will miss; more will be known after he emerges from surgery. Regardless of the prognosis, he’s under contract for next season under the two-year, $5MM deal he signed in January. Cleveland also possesses a $3MM option (with a $250K buyout) for 2019.
Obviously, the injury news means that Guyer won’t be a part of the Indians’ postseason run, though that had largely become clear already. The 31-year-old endured an injury-limited and disappointing 2017 campaign. Through 192 plate appearances, he slashed just .236/.326/.327 with a pair of long balls.
Prior to the current season, Guyer has been a source of solidly above-average hitting line he carried to that point. While he has never done much damage against same-handed pitching, Guyer has been a weapon against lefties, posting a lifetime .281/.379/.448 batting line.
Right-hander Adam Plutko has undergone his own surgery, the team further noted. In his case, a procedure to repair his right hip labrum is likely to sideline him for four to six months. Plutko briefly cracked the majors last year but struggled to a 5.90 ERA in 135 2/3 Triple-A frames in 2017.