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Jon Berti Could See Time As Backup First Baseman For Cubs

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Jon Berti doesn’t match the profile of your typical first baseman. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 190 pounds, Berti is best known for his speed. From 2018-23, his sprint speed consistently ranked in the 95th percentile or higher. In 2024, his age-34 season, he still ranked within the top 10% of baserunners with a sprint speed of 29.0 feet per second. Meanwhile, his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate all would have ranked among the bottom 10% if he had enough batted balls to qualify. He managed just one extra-base hit in 74 trips to the plate. Since his debut in 2018, only 10 players (min. 1,500 PA) have a worse isolated power than Berti’s career .107 mark.

Indeed, up until this past October, Berti had never played first base – at least not professionally. The keystone was his primary home in the minor leagues. In the majors, he had split his time between second base, third base, and shortstop, while also filling in, on occasion, in all three outfield positions. However, in Game 2 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Royals, New York skipper Aaron Boone penciled Berti into the lineup at first base. The veteran utility man would end up starting two more games at first throughout the playoffs; all 12 of his 2024 postseason plate appearances (and all but one of his defensive innings) came at this brand new position.

The Yankees asked Berti to play first base out of desperation. Anthony Rizzo was unavailable for the ALDS, while DJ LeMahieu missed the entire postseason. Set to face the dominant southpaw Cole Ragans in Game 2, Boone decided he’d rather have the righty-batting Berti in the lineup over Ben Rice or Oswaldo Cabrera, both of whom have had their struggles against left-handed pitching. Yet, it seems as if Berti’s new club, the Cubs, could enter the 2025 season with Berti as their go-to backup at first base. Discussing the crop of position players who will suit up for the Cubs in the Cactus League this spring, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic suggested Berti could be “the primary backup” at first base this year.

Michael Busch will return as Chicago’s everyday first baseman in 2025 after a strong rookie campaign. Over 152 games, he popped 21 home runs, walked 11.1% of the time, and finished with a 119 wRC+ – well above the league average, even at a position with high offensive standards. After Busch, however, the team doesn’t have many options to cover the right-most bag. None of the other Cubs players who spent time at the position in 2024 (Cody Bellinger, Patrick Wisdom, Garrett Cooper, and Matt Mervis) remain in the organization. Other than Busch, the only player on their 40-man roster with more MLB experience at first base than Berti is Ian Happ (61 innings from 2018-20). Needless to say, the Cubs aren’t going to play their three-time Gold Glove-winning left fielder in the infield unless it’s as a last resort.

Two of the four spots on the Cubs’ bench are spoken for; one belongs to Berti and one belongs to whichever catcher, either Miguel Amaya or Carson Kelly, isn’t in the starting lineup. Top candidates for the remaining bench spots include utility man Gage Workman, a Rule 5 draft pick; utility man Vidal Bruján, an offseason trade acquisition; utility man Nicky Lopez, a minor league signing; and utility man Ben Cowles, whom the Cubs protected from the Rule 5 draft. Oh, and they’ll need at least one bona fide outfielder, too. Alexander Canario is already on the 40-man roster, so he could have the inside track on that job. Simply put, that doesn’t leave much room in the mix for a true first baseman, even if the Cubs had one to consider. First base prospect Jonathon Long will be in camp, but the 23-year-old has played less than half a season above High-A, and his chances of earning a spot on the Opening Day roster are slim to none.

The Cubs could think about adding someone like Mark Canha or Justin Turner, but they don’t have the playing time to offer to make such a signing seem appealing for either side. Alternatively, they could bring another first baseman into camp on a minor league deal (names like Rowdy Tellez or Yuli Gurriel come to mind), but players of that caliber might not move the needle enough to be worth pursuing.

So, it seems as if Berti will be Chicago’s best bet to spell Busch at first base on occasion. That might not be the best use of Berti’s skill set – his bat is well below average at first, while his plus glove is wasted at a low-impact defensive position. That said, it’s not as if first base is a position that necessarily requires a strong backup. If Busch can play another 152 games (or more), Berti’s job at first will be minimal. His primary responsibilities will still be at second base, third base, and/or shortstop. He proved last October that he could play first base in a pinch, and that could very well be all he needs to do for the Cubs in 2025.

Giants Could Hold Competition For Backup Catcher Role

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When the Giants signed Tom Murphy to a two-year, $8.25MM deal last offseason, the contract came with the clear expectation that he would serve as the backup to young defensive star Patrick Bailey over the next two seasons. Murphy’s veteran experience and power bat would surely pair nicely with Bailey’s youth and glove-first skill set. Unfortunately for Murphy and San Francisco, he ended up spending most of the first year of his deal on the injured list nursing a sprained left knee. Meanwhile, the Giants needed six different catchers to get through the season, including two – Curt Casali and Andrew Knapp – who weren’t in the organization as of Opening Day. With the 2025 campaign fast approaching, Murphy is another year older and another year removed from his last healthy season. So, it stands to reason that the Giants would at least consider all their options before giving him the backup job once again.  Indeed, according to Andrew Baggarly and Grant Brisbee of The Athletic, you can expect the team to hold “an open competition” for their second-string catcher job this spring. 

Murphy played just 13 games in 2024, going 4-for-34 with one double, one home run, and four walks. When he landed on the IL in early May, Giants manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Baggarly) that he would need approximately four to six weeks to recover. Yet, weeks turned into months and Murphy still could not squat behind the plate without pain. Eventually, a second MRI scan after the All-Star break showed that his sprained ligament had not healed at all (per Evan Webeck of the Bay Area News Group). A PRP injection seemed to help the healing process, but by that point, Murphy’s 2024 season was lost. On the bright side, he told Webeck in September that he hoped to be back at full strength by spring training, and there’s no reason to believe that timeline has changed.

It’s easy to see what the Giants liked about Murphy when they signed him. At his best (and his healthiest), he is a legitimate power threat, especially against left-handed pitching. He hit well when he was on the field in 2022 and ’23, batting .292 with nine home runs in 61 games. Particularly impressive were his .879 OPS and 148 wRC+ in 201 trips to the plate; no catcher (min. 200 PA) had a higher OPS or wRC+ in that span. Murphy also showed off his unusual power for a catcher in 2019 with the Mariners, a year in which he hit 18 home runs and put up a 126 wRC+ in 281 PA.

Of course, 201 PA and 281 PA are both small sample sizes, and small sample sizes have been a problem for Murphy throughout his career. He has never played more than 97 games or taken more than 325 PA in a season. As he enters his age-34 campaign, he has only crossed the 200 PA threshold in a season twice, the 100 PA threshold three times, and the 50 PA threshold four times. He has spent at least six weeks on the IL in four of the past five years. And of all the injuries he has suffered, his knee sprain last season might be the most troubling yet. Knee injuries are always worrisome for catchers, and the fact that he took so long to recover is another cause for concern. Even in a best-case scenario where Bailey stays healthy throughout this coming season and takes on as much of the catching duties as he possibly can, the Giants will still need 400 or so innings from their backup. Murphy has only caught 400 innings in a season twice, and it’s more than fair to wonder if he can handle that kind of workload in 2025.

With all that said, it works in Murphy’s favor that the Giants don’t necessarily have a better option. In January, Brisbee laid out a few of Murphy’s potential competitors, including Sam Huff, Max Stassi, and Logan Porter. Huff, who is already on the 40-man roster, was once a relatively well-regarded prospect in the Rangers organization. However, the 27-year-old has never been able to establish himself at the big league level, and he’s coming off a poor offensive season at Triple-A. Stassi, meanwhile, has plenty of MLB experience, but he hasn’t played in the majors since 2022 and has not been a productive major league since 2021. He’s the same age as Murphy and comes with even more question marks. Finally, Porter has some offensive upside, but there’s a reason he’s 29 years old and only has 11 big league games under his belt. Unlike Murphy, Huff, or Stassi, Porter has minor league options, which makes him a potential candidate to shuttle back and forth between the majors and minors as needed in a third-string catcher role.

If the Giants are willing to look outside the organization, they could make this competition a little more interesting by signing another veteran catcher like James McCann, Luke Maile, or Yan Gomes to a minor league contract and inviting them to camp. Ultimately, however, Murphy still seems like the favorite to be Bailey’s backup come Opening Day. For one thing, the $4.25MM in guaranteed money remaining on his contract isn’t nothing, and the Giants aren’t going to want to eat that unless they feel they have no other choice. What’s more, if he can stay healthy, his powerful righty bat could be a genuinely valuable weapon for San Francisco’s bench. Still, the team will at least do their due diligence this spring. If Murphy struggles in camp, and another catcher stands out, the Giants will have to make a difficult decision before Opening Day.

Reds Notes: McLain, Lux, Candelario, Ashcraft

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Matt McLain looked like a budding star following a 2023 campaign where he debuted for the Reds and slashed an incredible .290/.357/.507 in 89 games en route to a fifth place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year. Impressive as McLain was, however, his rising star came crashing down when he suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery last March. He missed the entire 2024 campaign rehabbing but seemed poised to re-enter the club’s middle infield mix as the starting second baseman next to star shortstop Elly De La Cruz for 2025.

That was before the Reds landed Gavin Lux in a trade with the Dodgers, however. Lux has played second base for the overwhelming majority of his big league career outside of the rare cameo in the outfield and a few ill-fated attempts to try him at shortstop. As noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, club president Nick Krall has indicated that he expects Lux to play second base, left field, and DH for the Reds this year while also getting looks during Spring Training at third base and even shortstop as they look to sort out their mix of position players.

It’s a complicated puzzle the Reds will need to sort out this spring. De La Cruz is surely entrenched at shortstop, while Wittenmyer notes that Krall left the door open for veteran Jeimer Candelario to get the first crack at third base this year even after he struggled defensively at the position during an injury-marred 2024 campaign. If Candelario is at third base, that would open up first base for either Spencer Steer or Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Should Lux end up at second base, that would leave McLain without a spot on the infield, but it’s worth noting that the youngster took reps in center field during the Arizona Fall League this year and that C. Trent Rosencrans of The Athletic recently suggested that McLain could get a look in the outfield himself during Spring Training.

That complex infield picture seems likely to have a domino effect on the club’s outfield this year. Jake Fraley, Austin Hays, and TJ Friedl appear to be the three full-time outfielders locked into the Reds’ roster, but Fraley has long been a platoon player for Cincinnati while both Hays and Friedl are coming off difficult and injury-marred 2024 campaigns. That could open the door for the club’s excess infielders to take reps on the grass, with McLain standing out as an option in center field alongside Friedl while Steer and Lux could both be candidates to patrol the outfield corners.

Turning to the pitching staff, the club has an excess of potential starting pitching options that rivals its excess of potential infield options. Even before veteran Wade Miley returns from Tommy John surgery in May, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com notes that Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft, Carson Spiers, and perhaps even non-roster invitee Chase Petty could be candidates for a rotation job with the club. The most likely starting five in that group, however, figures to be Greene, Singer, Lodolo, Abbott, and Martinez.

Notably, that leaves Ashcraft on the outside looking in. The right-hander has spent his entire big league career in the rotation so far, making 60 starts across the past three seasons. The results have left something to be desired, however, as he’s posted a lackluster 4.91 ERA (92 ERA+) in that time. That includes a 5.24 ERA (84 ERA+) in 77 1/3 innings of work across 15 starts last year. As noted by Rosencrans in a recent mailbag, Ashcraft appears unlikely to make the club’s rotation and may have even fallen behind Lowder to the seventh spot on the club’s rotational depth chart at this point.

That makes Ashcraft a prime candidate to move into a bullpen role, and Rosencrans notes that there’s an “internal belief” that Ashcraft could find success at the back of the bullpen for the Reds if he doesn’t make the cut for the club’s starting rotation. Alexis Diaz had a rollercoaster season in the closer role in 2024, and if he or veteran set-up men Taylor Rogers and Emilio Pagan struggle in 2025 it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine Ashcraft getting an opportunity to prove himself as a high leverage reliever.

Tyler Beede Holds Showcase For Interested Teams

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Right-hander Tyler Beede threw for teams held a pro day for interested teams on Friday, per a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2. Alexander adds that Beede’s fastball was in the range of 93-95mph and that the Astros and Royals both were represented at the righty’s showcase.

Beede, 32 in May, was selected in the first round of the MLB draft twice: first out of High School by the Blue Jays in 2011, then by the Giants out of Vanderbilt. He made his big league debut with San Francisco back in 2018 with a two-game cup of coffee before getting his first significant look with the club in 2019. Things did not go especially well for Beede that year, as he struggled to a 5.08 ERA (82 ERA+) with a nearly identical 5.03 FIP in 117 innings of work split between 22 starts and a pair of bullpen outings.

Tommy John surgery wiped out Beede’s 2020 season and the majority of his 2021 campaign as well, leaving him to record just one inning of work in the majors that year. Once he properly returned to the big leagues in 2022, Beede made just six appearances with the Giants before he was designated for assignment by the club. The right-hander eventually landed in Pittsburgh as a long reliever and swingman, though he struggled to a 5.23 ERA and 4.89 FIP in 51 2/3 innings of work for the club. That performance wasn’t enough to earn him a spot on the 2023 Pirates, but he did receive some overseas interest and wound up signing with the Yomiuri Giants in Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2023 season.

Beede looked solid in Japan with a 3.99 ERA in 49 2/3 innings of work, albeit while striking out just 16.4% of opponents. That solid performance overseas was enough to earn him another shot stateside, and he signed on with the Guardians on a minor league deal in January of last year. Beede was impressive enough to make the club’s Opening Day roster last year, but he struggled out of the gate and posted an ugly 8.36 ERA in 14 innings of work. While his 26.5% strikeout rate in that time was a strong one, lackluster control held him back as he walked 13.2% of his opponents.

It seems unlikely that a club would offer Beede more than a minor league deal given his previous struggles at the big league level, but the former first-round pick’s previous success in Japan and solid strikeout rate with the Guardians last year are both potentially interesting data points for clubs to consider. Given the constant need for pitching depth in the modern game, it would hardly be a surprise if a club took a chance on a player like Beede who’s comfortable pitching both in the rotation and in multi-inning relief as needed. Given that the Astros figure to start the season with four starting pitchers on the injured list, a depth addition like Beede who could help hold down the fort while the club’s other arms get healthy could make some sense in Houston, while Beede would likely join a number of potential starting and long relief options fighting for a roster spot in Kansas City this spring.

Dave Roberts Discusses Extension Talks With Dodgers

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It’s been a busy offseason in Los Angeles this winter as the reigning World Series champions have worked hard to improve their roster, bringing in high-profile free agents like Blake Snell and Tanner Scott while also securing the services of 23-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki in international free agency. Frustrations from fans around the game led MLB commissioner Rob Manfred to speak out against the assertion from some fans that the Dodgers and their aggressive spending are “ruining” baseball.

For all the work the Dodgers have gotten done this winter, however, one major piece of the puzzle remains uncompleted: an extension for longtime manager Dave Roberts. Roberts’ contract expires after the 2025 season, and the club’s front office officials have made clear that they intend to keep their veteran skipper around beyond the end of his current contract. In an appearance on the Baseball Tonight podcast with ESPN’s Buster Olney, Roberts revealed that the sides have “just started talking” about an extension, and while his primary focus is on the start of Spring Training he suggested he’s hopeful a deal will get done.

“Hopefully, everything takes care of itself,” Roberts said on the podcast. “But it’s about value. And I love this organization, but yeah, you want to feel your value. Absolutely.”

It’s hard to deny Roberts’s value to the organization. He’s been at the helm for two World Series championships since taking over as skipper prior to the 2016 season, and his Dodgers have made two additional trips to the World Series in 2017 and 2018. Meanwhile, they’ve been dominant in the regular season for his entire tenure with the club: since Roberts took over as manager in L.A. the club has posted an incredible 851-705 record. His .627 career winning percentage as a big league manager (which also includes a one-game stint as skipper of the Padres in 2015) is the best of anyone with at least 1000 MLB games managed, and he’s finished in the top 5 of NL Manager of the Year award voting seven times throughout his career including a win in 2016 as well as second place finishes in both 2017 and 2022.

That Roberts wants to “feel [his] value” when it comes to his next contract is hardly a surprise given that resume, and there’s been an upward trend in salaries for managers around the game recently. Last offseason, longtime Brewers skipper Craig Counsell headed into free agency after not signing a contract extension prior to or during the 2023 season. Once a free agent, Counsell was courted by a number of clubs before ultimately landing with the Cubs on a deal that guaranteed him a record-setting $40MM over five years.

The deal made Counsell the highest-paid manager in the game, and set the stage for well-regarded Red Sox manager Alex Cora to enter the 2024 season without an extension in hand. Cora ultimately extended with the club on a three-year deal that guaranteed him roughly $21.75MM back in July, a deal that seemingly solidified the market for the game’s top managers in the $7-8MM range annually. Roberts is more decorated than either Cora or Counsell as a manager, and while no specifics surrounding the negotiations have been reported at this point it would seem reasonable to expect Roberts to be seeking a deal that at least falls into that range.

While its theoretically possible that Roberts could follow in Cora’s or even Counsell’s footsteps and hold off on signing an extension until later in the 2024 season or even until he reaches free agency this winter, given the Dodgers’ comfort with high-dollar expenditures and comments on both sides of the negotiation suggesting that Roberts staying in the fold is the preferred outcome, it seems more likely that the sides will be able to iron out a deal, perhaps even before the club heads to Tokyo to kick off the 2025 season against the Cubs next month.

Blue Jays Hire Kevin Kiermaier As Special Assistant

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Retired center fielder Kevin Kiermaier has joined the Blue Jays’ front office as a special assistant, as noted by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. Kiermaier wrapped up his MLB career with the Dodgers this year after being traded by Toronto at the trade deadline, but played for the Blue Jays in each of the past two seasons after spending the bulk of his career with the Rays. Kiemaier’s role hasn’t been strictly defined, but he told Matheson that he pitched himself to the Jays as an “outfield whisperer.”

“Please, just trust me. Let me be a part of this. Let me bounce around,” Kiermaier told the club, as relayed by Matheson. “Let me offer my services here, from top to bottom in the organization. Let me show you what I can do. Let me be the outfield whisperer to these guys.”

It’s hard to argue with Kiermaier’s resume, which should make him very well-suited to a role coaching outfielders on defense all throughout the organization. The 34-year-old wasn’t drafted by the Rays until the 31st round of the 2010 draft, but worked his way through the organization on the back of his defensive prowess and went on to have a strong career in the majors that saw him earn four Gold Glove awards in center field and play in 12 MLB seasons. While he was a decent hitter who provided roughly league average offensive value, defense was Kiermaier’s calling card as he accumulated 26.7 fWAR and 36.5 bWAR throughout his career.

While he ultimately wound up with the Blue Jays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Kiermaier talked about serving as an outfield instructor for the Rays and one other team before reaching an agreement with Toronto on his new special assistant role. He expressed his excitement about his new role to Topkin, but made clear he has absolutely no plans to attempt to make a comeback as a player in any capacity.

“I’ve done light stuff at the gym, and my body still just doesn’t feel great,” Kiermaier said, as relayed by Topkin. “I’m like, there is just no way I could ever get through a season again. And I don’t want to. I went out the way I wanted to, and now I am focusing my sights elsewhere. So. I’m a happy man.”

Daulton Varsho is expected to be the club’s primary center fielder, and he’s grown into one of the top defensive outfielders in the game. With that being said, it’s certainly possible Kiermaier could help the club’s other outfielders reach a new level with the glove in a coaching role. Incoming slugger Anthony Santander as well as youngsters and less-established players like Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider, and Joey Loperfido could all benefit from Kiermaier’s tutelage to say nothing of prospects further down the organizational ladder. A Florida native, Kiermaier is expected to be in Dunedin with the club during Spring Training before traveling around the club’s affiliates at various points throughout the season.

Orioles Previously Expressed Interest In Gavin Sheets

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The Orioles expressed interest in first baseman/outfielder Gavin Sheets at one point this winter, according to MASN’s Roch Kubatko in a recent mailbag column. Sheets remains a free agent, but it’s unclear whether or not the Orioles still maintain interest in his services at this point in the offseason.

Sheets, 29 in April, was a second-round pick by the White Sox back in 2017 and was non-tendered by Chicago back in November after parts of four seasons with the Sox. By far the worst season of Sheets’s career came in 2023, when he hit a paltry .203/.267/.301 with a wRC+ of 61 in 344 trips to the plate. Outside of that disastrous season, however, he’s generally looked like an average to slightly below average hitter at the big league level. Notably that production comes with a massive platoon split; for his career, Sheets sports a respectable 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitching but is 74% worse than league average against southpaws. That same principle applied to his 2024 season as well, when he posted a 94 wRC+ against opposite-handed pitching but lefties limited him to a wRC+ of just 59.

For a club in need of a left-handed platoon bat at first base, the addition of Sheets could make plenty of sense. With that being said, however, Baltimore’s interest in Sheets is at least somewhat surprising given the fact that Ryan O’Hearn fills a very similar niche and is currently locked into their roster on the back of his second consecutive strong season in a part-time role with the club. Like Sheets, O’Hearn is predominantly a first baseman but can also play the outfield in a pinch. While Sheets has gotten more time in the outfield than O’Hearn to this point in their careers, that extra time has only served to highlight Sheets’s questionable defense at the position, as he’s been worth -14 Outs Above Average in right field during his MLB career.

Since the start of the offseason, the Orioles have added Ramon Laureano, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O’Neill to their already-crowded outfield mix while O’Hearn, Ryan Mountcastle, and Coby Mayo all remain in the mix for playing time at first base. That deep group of talent seems to leave little room for a player like Sheets to break into the mix, though it’s certainly possible the Orioles could still be interested in him as a depth piece on a non-roster deal in case of an injury or trade clearing out some of that 40-man depth. Looking beyond the Orioles, there are a handful of clubs that could use a player like Sheets as a potential platoon option at first base or in the outfield. The Reds, Angels, Rockies, and Marlins are among the clubs who struggled most against right-handed pitching last year who could have room for Sheets on their bench.

Yankees Re-Sign Tim Hill

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TODAY: The move has been officially announced by the Yankees.

February 4: The Yankees are bringing left-hander Tim Hill back on a one-year, $2.85MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Hill, a client of Paragon Sports International, will be paid $2.5MM in 2025 and has a $350K buyout on a $3MM club option for the 2026 season.

Hill, 34, opened the 2024 season with the White Sox but was released in June after being tagged for a 5.07 ERA in 23 innings with the South Siders. He turned his entire season around upon signing with the Yankees, for whom he posted a pristine 2.05 earned run average in 48 innings from mid-June through season’s end. He tossed another 8 1/3 innings during postseason play and held opponents to one run during that time.

The veteran Hill is a sidearming sinker specialist who relies far more on grounders than on missing bats. A whopping 68.2% of batted balls against Hill were grounders. Conversely, his paltry 10.7% strikeout rate was the second-lowest among all pitchers who tossed at least 40 innings in 2024. No pitcher allowed a higher contact percentage than Hill’s 88.7%, and none had a lower swinging-strike rate than Hill’s 5.7% mark. Even with the lack of missed bats, that huge ground-ball rate and a terrific 6.5% walk rate (5.2% with the Yankees) helped Hill to mitigate damage.

As one might expect from a player who so rarely misses bats, Hill yielded quite a few hits in 2024. Opponents batted .290 against him — an average of 10.3 hits per nine innings pitched. However, the overwhelming majority were singles. Hill faced 291 hitters and only yielded nine extra-base hits (seven doubles and two homers). He was more effective against lefties than righties, but neither hit for any power against him. Southpaw swingers hit .273/.321/.322, while righties hit .303/.352/.352. Hill’s penchant for allowing contact could theoretically get him into trouble, but with so many singles, so few walks and so many grounders, he saw eight double plays induced behind him; only 11 relievers in all of MLB generated more (five of whom also simply pitched more innings).

Prior to their agreement with Hill, the Yankees didn’t have a lefty projected to be in the bullpen. They didn’t even have a left-handed reliever on the 40-man roster. He’ll now join a relief corps headlined by trade acquisition Devin Williams but also featuring Luke Weaver, Ian Hamilton, Fernando Cruz (another trade pickup), Mark Leiter Jr. and JT Brubaker. Jonathan Loaisiga, on the mend from last year’s April UCL procedure, will join the group eventually but could open the season on the 60-day injured list.

The bullpen could expand further if and when the Yankees trade Marcus Stroman, who they’ve been shopping throughout the winter. The roster would have six starters if the season began today, but a trade of Stroman will thin out the rotation and perhaps free up some money to bring in another lefty and/or add the infielder the Yankees have sought this offseason.

Adding Hill’s guarantee to the books pushes the Yankees’ projected cash payroll to just over $285MM, per RosterResource. They’re already in the top tier of luxury penalization, which means Hill will come with a 110% tax against the $2.85MM AAV of his contract. That weighs in at a $3.135MM tax hit, bringing the total expenditure for re-signing Hill to $5.985MM. RosterResource now has the Yankees’ luxury ledger at a bit more than $305MM. Of course, trading Stroman could reduce that bill substantially, though there’s no feasible way that the Yankees would duck the tax entirely (or even scale their overages back to less than $40MM, which would be required to avoid the penalty that drops next year’s top draft pick by 10 spots).

J.J. Picollo Discusses Royals Offseason Pursuits, Outfield Mix

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A year ago, the Royals had just put the finishing touches on an extension with budding superstar Bobby Witt Jr. that served as a capstone on the busiest and most aggressive offseason the club had put together in years. That strong offseason effort led to an 86-win season and a trip to the ALDS, where they ultimately fell to the AL champion Yankees in four games. After making the playoffs for the first time since they won the World Series back in 2015, the Royals entered this winter with heightened expectations.

The returns of Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen as well as the additions of Jonathan India and Carlos Estevez serve as the foundation of a strong offseason, but comments from owner John Sherman and GM J.J. Picollo relayed by Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star earlier today highlight that the club had bigger hopes for the offseason when it began. Sherman noted that the club made an effort to sign “marquee outfield bats” this winter and are continue to talk with some free agents, while Picollo elaborated further.

“That’s probably the one area in the two years we haven’t been able to reach our goal of getting that (offensive bat),” Picollo said, as relayed by Thompson. “It’s a little disappointing, but we can’t force teams to make trades they don’t want to make. We were active in the free-agent market; we just weren’t able to land the guys.”

Picollo and Sherman are alluding to the club’s failed pursuits of sluggers Jurickson Profar and Anthony Santander, who the club reportedly made two- and three-year offers to respectively before Profar went on to sign in Atlanta for three years while Santander headed to Toronto on a five-year pact. Either of those additions would’ve been a massive upgrade for an outfield mix that’s 79 wRC+ was tied with the White Sox for worst in the American League last year, but an external addition isn’t the only way the club can upgrade its offense in the outfield.

As Picollo notes, the addition of India can improve the offense, and it’s possible some of the club’s infielders can see regular time in the outfield this year as well. Picollo refers to sorting out where the club’s talent will play once the regular season begins as the “biggest challenge” facing the Royals as they head into Spring Training. Both India and Michael Massey are willing to play left field in 2025 and are under consideration for that role, while Maikel Garcia is under consideration for reps in center field as a potential platoon partner for Kyle Isbel. All three of those possible position changes have previously been reported, but Picollo’s comments made clear that a move to the outfield isn’t necessarily guaranteed for any one of those players.

“Jonathan (India) and Michael Massey both said they’re willing to play left field, which is great, but they are both infielders,” Picollo said. “So we need to see them out there in the outfield and see how they move around and figure out what is the best combination for us…it’s going to take time to figure out all the positions, which is different for us because we always valued the defense.”

If defense is the primary concern for the Royals when considering a potential move to the outfield for their infielders, Garcia has a far steeper hill to climb than either India or Massey. Not only is center field higher up on the defensive spectrum than left, but Isbel is one of the league’s most impressive defenders at the position with +10 Outs Above Average. Of course, Isbel’s right-handed complement at the position last year was Dairon Blanco, who turned in -1 OAA at the position and should be much easier for Garcia to surpass. Garcia, for his part, has never appeared in the outfield as a professional but rates well with the glove at third base, with +2 OAA.

It should be much easier for India and/or Massey to prove themselves viable in left. Their primary competition at the position currently appears to be MJ Melendez, who was among the league’s worst defenders in left field last year with a -6 OAA that ranked in just the ninth percentile among qualifying fielders. Neither India nor Massey has significant experience in the outfield, but both rank as average to plus defenders at second base and it’s easy to imagine at least one of them being an upgrade defensively over Melendez in left.

One other note from Picollo’s comments today that Thompson relays is that the Royals “would’ve liked” to add another left-handed pitcher to their roster this offseason. With southpaws Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic both already in the a rotation mix that runs six pitchers deep, it seems likely that any such addition would come in the bullpen. Angel Zerpa, Sam Long, Daniel Lynch IV, Noah Cameron, and Evan Sisk are the club’s left-handed options currently on the 40-man roster, though of that group only Zerpa and the out-of-options Long currently appear to be in line for a spot on the Opening Day roster. It wouldn’t be hard for the club to add a veteran arm to that mix even at this stage of the offseason, with Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, Jalen Beeks, and Ryan Yarbrough among the southpaws who remain available on the free agent market.

Padres Sign Connor Joe

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TODAY: The Padres have officially announced Joe’s contract. Joe will earn $1MM in guaranteed money, Acee reports, and another $1.25MM is available in incentive bonuses.

FEBRUARY 7, 9:45pm: The sides have an agreement on a one-year deal, writes Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune.

5:20pm: The Padres are nearing a deal with infielder/outfielder Connor Joe, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Financials for the John Boggs & Associates client aren’t publicly known at this time. The Padres have multiple 40-man vacancies, so no corresponding move will be required.

Joe, 32, has been roughly a league average bat in his career but decent in a platoon capacity. In his 1,582 plate appearances, he has hit .242/.337/.391 for a wRC+ of 97, indicating he’s just been 3% below par. A right-handed hitter, Joe has a .254/.350/.415 slash and 107 wRC+ against lefties, compared to a .235/.329/.377 line and 91 wRC+ against righties.

Defensively, he is capable of playing at first base or in an outfield corner. He has five Defensive Runs Saved as an outfielder in his career. Outs Above Average is a bit more pessimistic, giving him a -7 score. However, both metrics consider him above average as a first baseman.

The Pirates could have retained Joe for 2025 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a $3.2MM salary, but the Bucs decided to non-tender him instead. That sent him into free agency without being exposed to waivers.

Though the financials of this deal haven’t been reported yet, it’s surely a fairly modest guarantee by MLB standards. That’s obviously attractive for the Padres, since the budget is clearly a major concern, as it has been for a while. Last winter, the payroll crunch was tight enough that they dealt Juan Soto to the Yankees. This winter, they’ve been fairly quiet, but rumors have swirled around players like Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Arráez, Robert Suarez and others.

The tight payroll situation is awkward because they have a few clear holes on the roster. Jurickson Profar hit free agency and signed with Atlanta, leaving an opening in left field. The first base/designated hitter situation is also somewhat open. Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim hit free agency and signed with the Rays. The Padres are going to move Xander Bogaerts from second base, his primary position last year, back to short. That will seemingly allow Jake Cronenworth to move from first base to second base on a regular basis. Arráez, who served as the designated hitter a lot last year, could be the regular first baseman. Useful part-time players like David Peralta and Donovan Solano also hit free agency at the end of last season, subtracting from the bench/depth area.

Having Joe in the mix gives the Padres some options. He could see time at first base, pushing Arráez back into the DH spot. In left field, Tirso Ornelas projects as the top option at the moment despite having no major league experience. Bringing Joe aboard will push Ornelas down the depth chart, though he could still push for and earn playing time, with depth options like Eguy Rosario and Brandon Lockridge also possibilities to earn at-bats. Ornelas is a lefty bat, so perhaps a platoon with Joe is possible.

The market for part-time outfielders has been moving steadily in recent days. In the past two weeks, Austin Hays, Adam Frazier, Ramón Laureano, Randal Grichuk and Harrison Bader have signed one-year deals ranging from $1.5MM to $6.25MM. Joe’s details haven’t been reported yet but it’s possible he’s in there as well. For clubs still looking for outfield help, players like Alex Verdugo, Jason Heyward and Peralta are some of the unsigned options.

RosterResource currently puts the Padres at a payroll of $205MM and a competitive balance tax number of $245MM. It’s unclear exactly how much wiggle room they have in terms of the pure payroll. As far as the CBT goes, they are currently just $4MM over the $241MM base threshold. It’s presumed that they would want to be below that line, which is understandable, given how close they are.

They didn’t pay the tax in 2024, so they would be a “first-time” payor if they did so in 2025, which would lead to a modest 20% base tax rate for their overages. However, paying the tax also leads to lesser compensation when it comes to players rejecting a qualifying offer and signing elsewhere. Cease, King and Arráez are all impending free agents and candidates for a QO if they stick with the club through the end of the year, which could incentivize the Padres to duck under the tax line by season’s end if they’re at all close.

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