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NL Notes: Pham, Contreras, Cabrera, Garrett, Uhlman

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Multiple reports over the offseason indicated that the Padres had interest in signing Tommy Pham, with the most recent of these items coming in mid-March, when USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote that San Diego had interest in Pham on a one-year deal worth around $3MM or $4MM.  Opening Day has now come and gone with Pham still a free agent, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Padres still have interest, though they are wary that signing Pham wouldn’t leave much flexibility for future in-season moves while still remaining under the luxury tax threshold.

RosterResource projects a current tax number of around $223.6MM for San Diego, while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has a notably higher projection of $231MM.  It is important to note that these sites and others are only making estimates, while teams have their own internal mechanisms for calculating a luxury tax figure (and the league its own set of calculations to determine the final number at the end of the season).  The Padres seem intent on resetting their tax payor status and staying under the $237MM threshold, so if they have reservations about signing Pham for $3-4MM, that perhaps might indicate their internal number is closer to Cot’s figure than RR’s figure.  That said, it could also be a negotiating tactic on the Padres’ part to seek out a larger bargain on Pham, as the outfielder is undoubtedly eager to get onto the field.

More from around the National League…

  • X-rays were negative on Willson Contreras’ left hand, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol told Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat and other reporters.  Contreras was hit by a pitch on Wednesday and didn’t play in today’s 8-5 win over the Marlins, but the hope is that he can play in the Cards’ next game on Saturday, either as a DH or as a catcher.  Contreras already has two homers and a .979 OPS over his first 25 plate appearances of the young season, as he enters the second year of his five-year, $87.5MM pact with St. Louis.
  • Eury Perez’s Tommy John surgery has dealt another blow to the Marlins’ injury-riddled rotation, but some help might be on the way.  Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett are each scheduled to make two Triple-A rehab starts before being activated from the 15-day injured list, as per the Marlins’ updates to MLB.com and other media today.  Cabrera already made one 43-pitch rehab start on March 31, and his next outing is planned for Friday.  Garrett’s slated outing on April 7 will be the first of two starts, and his most recent work took place in an extended Spring Training game back on Tuesday.  Both starters are recovering from impingements in their throwing shoulders.
  • Returning to the Padres, manager Mike Shildt told reporters yesterday that longtime assistant GM Fred Uhlman Jr. was resigning his position.  President of baseball operations A.J. Preller discussed Uhlman’s decision with Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune, saying that Uhlman’s duties had been re-assigned to others over the last few months, and that Uhlman had stayed in his job during “this transitional period.”  Uhlman has been with San Diego since 1995 and an assistant GM since 1996, acting as a constant within the front office even as the Padres have hired and fired multiple general managers during his long tenure.  Josh Stein is the only other person in the front office with an assistant GM title, though Preller said the Padres don’t plan to replace Uhlman in the near future.

Boras: Padres Owner Peter Seidler Discussed Juan Soto Extension Last Year

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2023 ended up being Juan Soto’s final year in San Diego, as the Padres swapped the star outfielder to the Yankees in a blockbuster deal last December.  Given the Padres’ inconsistent play during their disappointing 82-80 season, there was plenty of trade buzz surrounding Soto during the year, and a trade began to look like more of a reality once reports filtered out after the season that San Diego was looking to reduce payroll.

However, some attempts were made to keep Soto in SoCal via a long-term extension.  Agent Scott Boras told Jon Heyman of the New York Post that former Padres owner Peter Seidler had started to explore a multi-year deal last summer.  “Peter called about wanting to pursue [Soto], and there were discussions about wanting to keep him.  And unfortunately, it did not work out because of [Seidler’s] health,” Boras said.

Seidler passed away in November at age 63, leaving behind a huge legacy during his three-plus years as the Padres’ majority shareholder.  Eager to bring San Diego its first World Series championship, Seidler turned the Padres into one of baseball’s biggest spenders.  Players like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Jake Cronenworth were all signed to pricey extensions, while Xander Bogaerts was signed to an 11-year, $280MM free agent contract.

Extending Soto would’ve required the biggest expenditure of them all, considering Soto’s youth and contractual situation.  The three-time All-Star is set to hit free agency this upcoming winter (just after his 26th birthday), and has already posted numbers during his seven MLB seasons that indicate a future spot in Cooperstown.  Soto already turned down a 15-year, $440MM extension offer from the Nationals in 2022 before Washington traded him to San Diego, and a big 2024 campaign in the Bronx will surely move his asking price even further into the stratosphere.  Boras is sure to seek far beyond the deferral-influenced $460MM present value of Shohei Ohtani’s contract, and seek a new record guarantee in Soto’s next contract.

Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers wasn’t yet a reality when Seidler and Soto’s camp talked last summer, though it wouldn’t have been surprising if a mega-deal had been reached.  As Heyman puts it, “Seidler did everything to win without regard to payroll or tax,” and “some connected to the team say they believe a Soto deal in San Diego would have gotten done had Seidler lived.”  There is also the interesting detail that the early discussions might’ve been limited to Seidler himself, as Heyman writes that “the talks were kept quiet at the time (even to folks around the team).”

Negotiating directly with owners has been a common move for Boras over the years in finding big contracts for his clients, and the agent has explained the tactic by simply noting that since the owners are the ones ultimately signing off on the huge deals, why not talk directly to the person signing the checks?  Unsurprisingly, front office executives and even rival owners haven’t always been impressed with this strategy, as it can be seen as an agent bypassing the usual methods of negotiating with a GM or president of baseball operations (who might have qualms about signing a Boras client for various reasons).  It isn’t known if Padres president of baseball ops A.J. Preller knew about Seidler’s talks with Boras, or even if Preller would’ve had any objections — Preller is a famously aggressive exec in his own right, and surely would’ve welcomed having Soto remain a Padre for years to come.

Extending Soto would’ve added yet another big contract to the Padres’ books, and complicated the plans to reduce payroll that were reportedly in the works well before Seidler’s passing.  The Padres ended up cutting payroll rather drastically in going from $254.5MM in 2023 to around $167.2MM at the start of the 2024 season (all figures via RosterResource), plus San Diego has now gotten under the luxury tax threshold after surpassing the tax line in each of the previous three years.

Mariners Release Cory Abbott

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The Mariners released right-hander Cory Abbott yesterday, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He’s now a free agent and can be signed by any club.

Abbott, 28, signed a minor league deal with the club in January and was in big league camp until being reassigned to minor league camp at the beginning of March. He was with Triple-A Tacoma long enough to make one regular season start lasting three innings, during which he allowed three earned runs on four hits and two walks while recording two strikeouts.

Selected by the Cubs in the second round of the 2017 draft, he was a notable prospect coming up the minors but hasn’t been able to find success in the majors or in Triple-A. Prior to the pandemic, he posted a 2.84 earned run average in the minors, getting as high as Double-A. Since the minors were canceled in 2020, he’s pitched in parts of four Triple-A seasons with a 5.51 ERA in 189 1/3 innings. He has struck out an impressive 28.5% of batters faced in that time but has also given out walks at a 12.9% clip.

He’s also thrown 104 2/3 innings at the big league level from 2021 to 2023 but with a 6.02 ERA. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate in that time were both a few points worse than league average.

Abbott’s lack of results at both the major league and Triple-A levels will tamp down his interest, but the Triple-A strikeouts are interesting. If any club feels they have the key to unlocking something with Abbott, he can be had for another no-risk minor league deal. If he eventually winds his way back to the majors, he is out of options but has just over a year of service time and therefore has years of potential club control.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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As Shohei Ohtani reached free agency, the Angels declared that they would not rebuild. But after Ohtani moved across town to the Dodgers, the Angels kept things pretty quiet, ignoring the pleas of Mike Trout.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $29.55MM
Total spending: $51.55MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None.

Notable Losses

Many people in the baseball world have been looking forward to this offseason for a long time. Shohei Ohtani has spent the past few years achieving things that were never achieved before nor even considered possible. But despite his best efforts, the Angels never made the postseason or even posted a winning record during his time with the club. As the Halos continually disappointed, eyes turned toward the calendar and his impending free agency, with fans dreaming of bringing Ohtani to their own club or perhaps just the idea of watching him playing meaningful games for anyone.

It wasn’t a foregone conclusion that Ohtani would leave, but they were certainly not the favorite. That led to questions about how the club would proceed if Ohtani did end up changing jerseys. As many argued, if the Angels weren’t good enough to win with Ohtani, they certainly wouldn’t be good enough without him. That led to speculation that the club would have to consider blowing up the entire roster and kicking off a massive rebuild.

But that line of thinking was quickly dispelled when general manager Perry Minasian came right out and made it clear. Just a couple of weeks after the World Series ended, he stated that the club would not be rebuilding and would in fact have an “aggressive” offseason.

Before getting to the roster moves, the club had to look for a new manager. Skipper Phil Nevin was sort of a placeholder, as he took over when Joe Maddon was fired in the middle of the 2022 season. Nevin was given a one-year deal to stick around for 2023 but never made it beyond lame duck status. The Halos settled on veteran manager and coach Ron Washington as their new bench boss, and it was at his introductory press conference that Minasian made his aforementioned comments about the club’s plans.

For the early parts of the offseason, a lot of attention was focused on Ohtani, not just from Angels’ fans but from all around the world. Though it played out in somewhat interesting fashion, with Ohtani and his reps seeming to prefer secrecy over any kind of public relations dance, the result ended up being fairly predictable. He took the I-5 from Anaheim to Los Angeles and will be playing with the Dodgers for the next decade.

Although that end result wasn’t surprising, it was a bit eyebrow-raising when it was reported that the Angels had a chance to match the Dodgers’ offer but chose not to. The $700MM price tag is obviously massive but the deal is heavily deferred, with Ohtani only making $2MM per year during the deal and $68MM annually in deferred payments for the following decade. That sort of structure was clearly appealing to clubs, who could bank profits of the marketability of Ohtani and collect interest on it until paying him down the line. The Giants and Blue Jays were reportedly willing to match the same deal that Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, but the Angels said no thanks. Perhaps they got the sense they were just being used to drive up the bidding, but that’s just a guess. Owner Arte Moreno later confirmed that the club did not match Ohtani’s deal but didn’t go into detail about why.

While losing Ohtani cast a shadow over the franchise, there was one small silver lining. Ohtani had rejected a qualifying offer from the Angels, meaning they will receive compensation for him signing elsewhere. The kind of compensation they would receive was up in the air for a while, given the club’s uncertain luxury tax status. They had gone over the competitive balance tax line in 2023 but tried to duck under after falling out of contention and placing several players on waivers in late August. It was eventually reported in early December that the club was successfully in avoiding the tax, which means their compensation pick for Ohtani’s departure will be after the second round of the upcoming draft as opposed to after the fourth.

With Ohtani officially gone and the club planning to be aggressive, as Minasian said, they seemed to cast a wide net in their search for upgrades. They were connected to an eclectic group of free agents including Jeimer Candelario, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga, Jordan Hicks, Teoscar Hernandez, J.D. Martinez, Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, Michael A. Taylor, Tim Anderson, Martin Maldonado and others, as well as trade candidates like Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow.

In the end, they didn’t get anything done with anyone from that group, which raises the question of how serious the interest was and of how “aggressive” the Angels truly were. Some of those players lingered on the open market for months and eventually signed deals well below the expectations from the outset of the winter. The Halos had plenty of chances to swoop in and snag a player at a bargain price but didn’t.

The later parts of the offseason were highlighted by the so-called “Boras Four:” Snell, Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger. Trout was lobbying the club to take advantage of the soft market and was open to the media about his efforts, but the Halos didn’t grant his wishes, even as those players all pivoted to short-term deals with opt-outs.

The Angels certainly could have done so, even without incurring tax penalties. RosterResource currently estimates their CBT number to be $189MM, or $48MM below the lowest CBT threshold. That means the club could have given out a deal with an average annual value of $30MM and still had wiggle room for midseason trade additions, but Moreno said that the club was planning to lower the budget for the start of the post-Ohtani era and that seems to have prevented them from making any big splashes.

In the end, despite the claims that the club would be aggressive, their offseason amounted to making a few bullpen additions. The most notable of those was signing Robert Stephenson to a three-year, $33MM deal. It’s a bit of a risk since he’s been inconsistent in his career, but there’s also a chance he becomes one of the most dominant pitchers in the league.

He certainly looked to be on that path late last year, as he posted a 2.35 earned run average in 42 appearances with the Rays, striking out 42.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.7% of them. But his overall body of work is less impressive, as his career ERA currently sits at 4.64. He’s also dealt with a number of injuries over the years and is on the IL right now, not yet having made his debut as an Angel.

In addition to Stephenson, the Halos also brought back Matt Moore and signed Luis Garcia, Jose Cisnero and Adam Cimber on one-year deals. No one in that group is super exciting as an individual, but they collectively improve the depth in a bullpen that has been a problem for the Halos in the past.

On the position player side of things, the most significant additions came with no real cost at all. Aaron Hicks is still being paid by the Yankees as part of the extension he signed with that club many years ago, since they released him last year. That means the Angels will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time he spends on the roster. He seemed to bounce back in a part-time role with the Orioles last year, so he’s a fine pickup for the Angels. If he’s productive at all, it’s a big win, and he can be jettisoned for no real cost if he struggles.

The same is largely true for Miguel Sano, who settled for a minor league deal over the winter. He spent an up-and-down seven years as a middle-of-the-order presence in Minnesota, but knee injuries wiped out most of his 2022 season and he didn’t play anywhere last year. He lost a bunch of weight and is now healthy enough to have cracked the Opening Day roster for the Angels, so he will also be a nice pickup for the club if he can carve out any kind of useful role this year.

While each move the Angels made may seem fairly sensible in a vacuum, the sum total of the moves is something of a confusing muddle. The club has spent decade in a middling zone of not being good enough to win but also having too much talent to rebuild. The loss of Ohtani arguably could have pushed them towards the latter. They clearly did not want to lean that way, but they also didn’t really push themselves in the other direction either.

It seems they are now in a sort of wait-and-see season. Instead of going outside the organization for star players, they will give playing time to younger players like Reid Detmers, Nolan Schanuel, Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto, Mickey Moniak, Jo Adell, Chase Silseth and others as they see what they have. Sam Blum of The Athletic recently interviewed Minasian and the GM said that the reason they didn’t end up signing notable free agents was that they didn’t want to block some of these young players from opportunities. When asked if Moreno would ever want to sign a big free agent again, “That would be a question for him” was Minasian’s reply.

There’s some logic to giving playing time to younger players but it’s a bit hard to see a bright future in Anaheim. Of the farm system rankings at Baseball America, FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and The Athletic, none of them have the Angels higher than 28th out of 30.

Back in February, Trout said that he has not asked to be traded since that would be “the easy way out.” While his commitment to the franchise is admirable, it’s getting harder to see how he’ll get back to the playoffs as an Angel. The major league club hasn’t been good enough, just subtracted the best player in the world and added little. Based on the assessments of the farm system, there’s not a lot of help on the way in the future either.

Trout is off to a blazing hot start here in 2024 but he’s had notable injury problems in each of the past three years and will move past his 33rd birthday this year. With an unclear future, the club perhaps would have been wise to try to build a winning club around him while they still have time but didn’t really make much of an effort to do so this winter.

Bennett Sousa Undergoes Surgery For Thoracic Outlet Syndrome

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The Astros announced to reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that left-hander Bennett Sousa underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome yesterday. He will miss the entire 2024 season.

Sousa, 29 on Saturday, has only been with the Astros since September when he was claimed off waivers from the Tigers. But the club is clearly fond of him, as general manager Dana Brown said in February that Sousa likely would have made their playoff roster last year if he had been acquired prior to the September 1 eligibility cutoff date.

That strong reputation with the club would have put him in a good spot to earn a notable role in their bullpen this year but he started the season on the 15-day injured list due to left shoulder inflammation. It seems that further testing revealed a more specific diagnosis and the recommendation of surgery.

Sousa has 29 1/3 innings pitched in his major league career with a 7.06 earned run average in that small sample. He started 2023 with the White Sox but rode the roster carousel to the Reds, Brewers and Tigers before landing with the Astros. He tossed nine major league innings on the year with four earned runs allowed, striking out 10 and walking two. He also tossed 20 1/3 minor league innings with a 4.43 ERA, 33.3% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate.

The news of the surgery and missed season is obviously tough for Sousa, but it comes with a silver lining. He’ll spend the year on the major league injured list collecting big league pay and service time, a notable thing for a guy who came into 2024 with less than a year of service. The Astros will transfer him to the 60-day IL whenever they need his roster spot for another transaction. Other than Josh Hader, the only left-handed reliever on the 40-man other than Sousa is Parker Mushinski, so perhaps the club will keep an eye on the waiver wire for southpaws.

Cardinals Recall Pedro Pagés For MLB Debut

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The Cardinals announced today that infielder Matt Carpenter has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain, retroactive to April 2. In a corresponding move, catcher Pedro Pagés was recalled from Triple-A Memphis and will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.

It’s unclear when or how Carpenter hurt himself. He last played on Monday but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s been hurt for days since he’s only been in part-time bench role for the Cards anyhow. It’s also unclear how long he’ll be out of action but more information will perhaps be forthcoming in the near future.

The mysterious injury to Carpenter allows the club to add a third catcher to their active roster. Willson Contreras was hit on the hand by a pitch yesterday and is out of today’s lineup with Iván Herrera starting. Brendan Donovan was also hit by a pitch yesterday, twice, and is also getting a day off today. That might leave the club a bit short-handed in their home opener today as the four position players not in the lineup today are Contreras, Donovan, Pagés and Brandon Crawford, who has never played a position other than shortstop in his career.

Regardless of the circumstances, the result is that Pagés gets called to the big leagues for the first time. Now 25, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Long considered a strong defensive catcher, he took a step forward at the plate in 2023.

He got 497 plate appearances at the Double-A level last year and drew a walk in 11.9% of them, while only striking out at a 19.3% clip. He also hit 16 home runs and slashed .267/.362/.443 for a wRC+ of 113.

Marlins Claim Otto López From Giants

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The Marlins have claimed infielder/outfielder Otto López off waivers from the Giants, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants had designated him for assignment earlier this week when they selected Nick Avila. The Marlins announced the claim and that they have transferred righty Eury Pérez to the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. It was reported earlier that Pérez will require Tommy John surgery and miss the remainder of the season.

López, 25, provides some speed and a great deal of defensive versatility but it’s unknown how much he will hit. In each of the past five years, he has been able to get his stolen base total in the minors into double digits. He’s also bounced around the field to play the three infield spots to the left of first base and each of the three outfield slots.

On offense, he definitely puts the bat on the ball but the power is very limited. From the start of 2021 to the present, he’s had 1,273 minor league plate appearances and hit just 10 home runs but his 16.4% strikeout rate is quite low. He’s slashed .288/.355/.396 in that time for a wRC+ of 101.

López came up as a Blue Jays prospect but was designated for assignment when that club signed Yariel Rodríguez a couple of months ago. He was traded to the Giants for cash but got bumped off that club’s roster this week.

The Marlins effectively had a roster spot to burn with the news of Pérez requiring surgery and they will now use it to fill in some of the utility depth they sacrificed when they traded Jon Berti to the Yankees last week. López still has an option remaining so the Marlins could send him to Triple-A for regular at-bats or bring him to the big league squad to give them some cover at multiple positions around the diamond.

Astros To Claim Miguel Diaz, Cooper Hummel Off Waivers

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2:05 pm: The Astros have now announced both claims. In corresponding moves, they transferred right-handers Luis Garcia Jr. and Penn Murfee to the 60-day injured list. Both pitchers underwent elbow surgery last summer and won’t be available for a few more months, at least.

12:27 pm: The Astros are set to make a pair of waiver claims. Neither has been formally announced by the club just yet, but Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that Houston is claiming right-hander Miguel Diaz off waivers from the Tigers, who’d designated him for assignment last week. Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 in Houston further reports that the ’Stros are claiming catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel, who was designated for assignment by the Giants last week.

Diaz, 29, has pitched in parts of six big league seasons — four with the Padres and two with the Tigers. He tossed 14 innings out of the Detroit ’pen in 2023, allowing just one run on eight hits and five walks with 16 strikeouts. It was a brief but dominant showing that surely enhanced his standing within the organization and gave him a chance to break camp with the 2024 club. However, Diaz struggled this spring, surrendering five runs on ten hits and five walks in 8 1/3 innings.

Originally selected by the Padres (by way of a trade with the Twins) out of the Brewers organization in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft, Diaz’s big league career began in rocky fashion. That was understandable, given that San Diego carried a then-22-year-old Diaz on the roster all season after plucking him directly out of A-ball. He pitched just 66 2/3 innings in his first three seasons, logging a lowly 6.62 ERA. The Friars non-tendered him in 2019 to remove him from the 40-man roster but quickly re-signed him.

In 2021, Diaz returned to the majors with 42 effective innings out of the San Diego ’pen. Over the past three seasons, he carries a 2.87 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 41.9% ground-ball rate in 59 2/3 innings. Diaz is out of minor league options, so he’ll head directly to the Houston bullpen as he cannot be sent to the minors without first passing through waivers. If he can demonstrate some staying power in manager Joe Espada’s bullpen, he can be controlled through the 2027 season via arbitration.

Hummel, 29, has bounced from the Mariners, to the Mets, to the Giants and now the Astros since the end of the 2023 season. He appeared in 10 MLB games last year and came to the plate 26 times with Seattle. He also received a brief look with the D-backs in 2022, and he’s posted an overall .166/.264/.286 line in 227 career plate appearances.

Ugly as that small-sample slash line may be, Hummel turned in a .262/.409/.435 batting line in Triple-A last year and drew walks at a massive 18% clip. His ability to play both catcher and corner outfield gives him a relatively uncommon brand of versatility. Hummel has logged more than 1800 innings in left field, 1054 frames behind the plate, 508 innings at first base and another 296 innings in right field. Add in that he has a minor league option remaining, and he’s an interesting depth piece even if he hasn’t yet produced at the big league level.

White Sox Re-Sign Mike Clevinger

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April 4: The White Sox have formally announced Clevinger’s new contract and confirmed the $3MM base salary. The team also confirmed the previously reported DFA of infielder Jose Rodriguez, which opens a spot on the 40-man roster. Clevinger has agreed to be optioned to the team’s Arizona Complex League affiliate to build up.

April 1, 9:50pm: Clevinger’s deal with the White Sox will pay him $3MM in 2024, with an additional $3MM available in incentives (per Robert Murray of FanSided).

4:55pm: The White Sox and right-hander Mike Clevinger are in agreement on a deal, pending a physical, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The full details of the pact for the ACES client are not yet known, though Jon Heyman of The New York Post relays that it’s a one-year deal.

Clevinger, 33, was one of many free agents to linger on the open market for a very long time, as the offseason turned out to be far slower than anyone had anticipated. He had signed with the White Sox last winter, a one-year deal with a $12MM guarantee. It was later reported that Clevinger was under investigation for domestic violence allegations, though that investigation concluded without the pitcher receiving any discipline.

He went on to have a decent season for the Sox, throwing 131 1/3 innings with a 3.77 earned run average. He went on the injured list twice, the first due to right wrist inflammation and the second due to right biceps inflammation, but still managed to take the ball 24 times.

Though the ERA was nice, there were other numbers that were less impressive. His 20% strikeout rate was below league average and well below the 28% rate Clevinger posted from 2017 to 2020. He underwent Tommy John surgery in November of 2020, missing the entire 2021 season, and hasn’t been quite the same since his return. His velo hasn’t quite come all the way back to pre-surgery levels and he only struck out 18.8% of batters faced in 2022.

In 2023, luck may have helped him keep his ERA low, as his .281 batting average on balls in play and 77.2% strand rate were both on the fortunate side. His 4.28 FIP and 4.81 SIERA suggest he may not have been as effective as the ERA make him look.

Perhaps it was those underlying metrics or maybe it was just a side effect of the generally weak offseason, but Clevinger didn’t find a deal to his liking during the winter and will now be signing after the 2024 campaign has already begun.

The Sox don’t need Clevinger to be an ace, as simply having him eat some innings should be useful to them. They traded away Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn last year as they kicked off a rebuild, then flipped Dylan Cease this winter and moved Michael Kopech into a relief role. Touki Toussaint was outrighted off the roster and Jesse Scholtens required Tommy John surgery. With José Ureña having signed with the Rangers, the Sox came into the 2024 season with every pitcher that made more than three starts for them in 2023 either gone, injured or in the bullpen, prior to Clevinger’s return.

The rotation currently consists of new arrivals. Reliever Garrett Crochet is going in the opposite direction of Kopech, while Michael Soroka was acquired in a trade and Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen were signed as free agents. The club also brought in Jared Shuster, Jake Eder and Jairo Iriarte via trades in the past year, but each has been optioned for work in Triple-A.

That leaves one spot open, which Clevinger will fill at some point. Since he missed all of Spring Training, he will presumably need a bit of tune-up time to get into game shape, even if he’s been building up a pitch count in some unofficial capacity.

Any of their current starters could find themselves available at the trade deadline, which could further open up the need for innings. Soroka and Flexen are both impending free agents while Fedde is controlled through 2025 and Crochet through 2026. With the club’s timeline for a return to contention unclear, there would be an argument for making any of those guys available.

If those players end up getting moved, some of the aforementioned younger pitchers could get an audition but the likelihood of needing someone to take the ball is high, with injuries sure to crop up throughout the year. If Clevinger can find a way to get his strikeouts back, he could pitch himself into a trade scenario as well.

Eury Perez To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Touted young Marlins righty Eury Perez will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the 2024 season, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix announced to reporters this morning (X link via Christina De Nicola of MLB.com). He’ll have the surgery on Monday.

Perez made his big league debut last season at just 20 years of age. He didn’t show his youth, bursting onto the MLB scene with 91 1/3 innings of 3.15 ERA ball. The towering 6’8″, 220-pound righty fanned a hearty 28.9% of his opponents against a solid 8.3% walk rate. Opponents batted under .200 on each of Perez’s slider, curveball and changeup. He averaged 97.4 mph on his heater and turned in a gaudy 15.7% swinging-strike rate that checked in third among all big league pitchers (min. 90 innings) — trailing only Spencer Strider and Tyler Glasnow.

Everything looked to be falling into place for Perez to emerge into stardom. That may still be the case, but he’ll now have a 14- to 16-month recovery period — and given his importance to the franchise’s long-term outlook, it stands to reason that the Marlins will err on the side of caution.

Perez was initially diagnosed with elbow inflammation during spring training. Surgery was not recommended following his original MRI in mid-March. But inflammation and swelling can at times be significant enough to mask underlying structural damage. Whether that’s the case here or whether Perez suffered the ligament damage in a subsequent bullpen session isn’t clear and might ultimately never be known.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald tweets that Perez threw a scheduled bullpen session on Tuesday and felt tightness in his elbow while also experiencing a drop in velocity. That led to a follow-up wave of imaging which revealed the ligament tear and prompted the surgery recommendation. Perez will now spend the 2024 season on the major league 60-day IL, accruing big league pay and big league service time. He’s under club control through the 2029 season.

The Marlins’ once-vaunted collection of young starting pitching has seen its share of setbacks, and that enviable stock is now running thin. Sandy Alcantara, the 2022 National League Cy Young winner, underwent Tommy John surgery last October and will miss the 2024 season. Pablo Lopez was traded to the Twins in the Jan. 2023 Luis Arraez swap. Lefty Jake Eder was traded to the White Sox last summer in a deal bringing slugger Jake Burger back to Miami. Max Meyer (Tommy John surgery), Sixto Sanchez (shoulder surgery), Dax Fulton (internal brace surgery) have all had major injury setbacks. Left-hander Braxton Garrett and righty Edward Cabrera, both expected to open the 2024 season in the rotation, instead landed on the 15-day IL due to shoulder impingements.

Given that gobsmacking slate of injuries, the Marlins have opened the season with a patchwork group of starters. Hometown kid Jesus Luzardo has stepped up as the staff ace, and he’s been followed by Trevor Rogers, Ryan Weathers and reliever-turned-starter A.J. Puk. Meyer is recovered from his 2022 Tommy John procedure and has stepped into the rotation early on. He’ll presumably be on an innings limit, but the former No. 3 overall pick has long been a highly touted prospect himself.

Between the current starting five, Garrett and Cabrera, the Marlins still have enough talent to piece together a strong rotation. The depth has been severely compromised, however, and it’s arguable that Perez was their most talented healthy arm heading into the season — or at least the second-most talented, behind Luzardo. For a Marlins team that has begun the season in a catastrophic 0-7 slump, word of Perez’s injury only furthers the sense of dread surrounding the club at the moment.

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