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The Opener: Rangers, Mariners, Cole, Pitchers’ Duel

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As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Series Preview: Rangers @ Mariners

It’s been a struggle for the reigning World Series champion Rangers this year, as they’ve played to just a 33-35 record that places them 5.5 games back of the Mariners for the AL West lead and 3.5 games back of the Twins for the final AL Wild Card spot. Texas has begun to heat up recently with a 9-6 record over their past 15 games, a stretch that includes swiping two of three from the Dodgers in L.A. earlier this week. With a three-game set against Seattle on the docket this weekend, the Rangers will turn to lefty Andrew Heaney (4.06 ERA), veteran Nathan Eovaldi (2.68 ERA), and righty Dane Dunning (4.80 ERA) opposite the three-headed monster at the front of the Mariners rotation: Luis Castillo (3.35 ERA), George Kirby (3.81 ERA), and Logan Gilbert (3.19 ERA).

The coming series will be crucial to the defending champs’ chances of turning things around, particularly in the division standings, prior to the trade deadline next month. The  Rangers won’t play the Mariners again until September. A sweep of the series by Texas would place them just 2.5 games back of Seattle in the division and back over .500, while the Mariners would be able to create even more distance in the AL West with a sweep of their own, giving them at least an eight-game lead over their closest competitor. The series kicks off tonight in Seattle and 7:10pm local time.

2. Cole continues rehab:

Yankees ace Gerrit Cole is scheduled to make his third rehab start at the Triple-A level today, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including those at MLB.com). Boone added that Cole is expected to throw around 70 pitches, and Cole himself said following his last start that he expected to make one more before returning to the majors. That could signal that Cole will be ready to be activated as soon as next week, assuming there are no hiccups during his rehab outing today.

The reigning AL Cy Young winner has been sidelined since Spring Training due to a bout of elbow inflammation but has looked like his usual dominant self in two rehab starts at the Double-A level. In a combined eight innings of work, Cole has struck out nine batters (32.4% strikeout rate) while issuing zero walks and allowing just one earned run. Cole’s return to the rotation should allow the Yankees to return right-hander Cody Poteet to his role as an occasional spot starter rather than a fixture of the rotation, though the 29-year-old has impressed with a 2.40 ERA in three starts since replacing an injured Clarke Schmidt.

3. 2021 NL Cy Young Award rematch:

Sunday’s game between the Phillies and Orioles will be a particularly interesting one, even aside from the inherent intrigue of seeing two of the league’s heavyweights square off in a hypothetical World Series preview. Right-handers Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler are set to face off in Baltimore starting at 1:35pm local time. It will be the first time the pair have faced each other since finishing as the top two in a close 2021 NL Cy Young Award vote that saw each hurler get 12 out of 30 first place votes. Ultimately, Burnes bested Wheeler by a narrow margin to take home the award.

Burnes was traded to Baltimore over the winter and upon joining the Orioles has enjoyed his best campaign since he was crowned the best pitcher in the NL three years ago. In 86 2/3 innings, he’s notched  2.08 ERA and 3.22 FIP, though his 23.6% strikeout rate is a far cry from the 35.6% figure he posted in 2021. Meanwhile, Wheeler recently signed an extension to stay in Philadelphia through 2027. His 2.16 ERA in 87 2/3 frames this season would be a career best, and he sports an excellent 2.90 FIP with a 27.7% strikeout rate.

Astros Could Pursue Multiple Starting Pitching Additions

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The Astros are in danger of missing the postseason for the first time in eight years. Houston has not only made the playoffs in each year since 2016, they’ve won at least one round in every season and picked up a pair of World Series. This year’s squad is seven games under .500 halfway through June, carrying a 31-38 record that has them above only the Angels, A’s and White Sox in the American League.

Houston has a franchise-high payroll and an aging core that has had ample success. They’re uninterested in giving up on 2024. General manager Dana Brown said at the start of the month that he “(didn’t) see any scenario” where the team sells. Brown indicated he expected to add at the deadline despite their current place in the standings. To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the team would like to add two starting pitchers before the deadline.

The rotation has been arguably the team’s biggest weakness, so it’s a straightforward target. They’ve been hit hard by injuries that have exposed a lack of upper minors depth. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia have yet to make their season debuts after undergoing arm surgeries in 2023. The Astros lost Cristian Javier and José Urquidy to Tommy John surgeries within the past couple weeks. Those procedures were announced after Brown declared that he couldn’t envision selling, but both pitchers were headed for testing at the time. The GM presumably knew that season-ending surgery was at least a realistic possibility.

That leaves Houston with a rotation of Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Valdez and Verlander are assured of season-long rotation spots so long as they’re healthy. Hunter Brown has righted the ship after a terrible April with a 3.05 ERA and a 27.4% strikeout rate over his past seven starts. Blanco has a 2.67 ERA while punching out nearly 24% of opponents in 12 outings.

It’s a reasonable front four, particularly if Brown continues pitching like an upper mid-rotation arm. The depth remains perilously thin. Arrighetti has had an up-and-down rookie campaign, allowing 5.33 earned runs per nine over his first 11 MLB starts. His run prevention has improved over the past month. Arrighetti has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his last six outings. He hasn’t been especially efficient, though, issuing multiple walks in all 11 appearances. The 24-year-old has shown the stuff to miss bats against big league hitters, yet his debut season hasn’t been seamless.

Even if Houston isn’t actively looking to nudge Arrighetti from the starting five, they’d be ill-prepared to handle any other injuries. J.P. France is on the minor league injured list. Eric Lauer has allowed 14 runs in 15 Triple-A innings since signing a minor league deal. Arrighetti was the only upper minors pitching prospect whom most evaluators regarded highly in a thin farm system. Garcia and McCullers could return around the trade deadline. There’s some level of risk with both pitchers finishing rehabs from lengthy absences — particularly McCullers, who has an extended injury history.

It’s not clear how highly the Astros might aim in their search for starting pitching. It’s unlikely they’ll land multiple mid-rotation or better arms, particularly without a ton of top talent to shop from the farm system (and a probable need to acquire first base help). Landing one mid-rotation starter and an innings-eating depth arm could be attainable. It’s debatable whether the Astros should subtract from their minor league pipeline to upgrade the 2024 roster — MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued for Houston to be more amenable to dealing away veterans in a piece for Front Office subscribers this evening — but the front office is clearly still looking for short-term help.

Garrett Crochet could be the prize of this summer’s rotation trade market. The White Sox would need to be blown away to deal him with two more seasons of club control. They’re likelier to trade Erick Fedde, who is under contract through 2025. The Marlins will probably move Jesús Luzardo and could trade one of Trevor Rogers or Braxton Garrett. The likes of Zach Eflin, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Austin Gomber and Cal Quantrill could also come available closer to the deadline.

Dodgers Acquire Jose Hernandez From Pirates

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The Dodgers announced the acquisition of lefty reliever Jose Hernandez from the Pirates for cash. Los Angeles transferred Ryan Brasier to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Pittsburgh designated Hernandez for assignment earlier in the week when they claimed Dennis Santana off waivers.

Los Angeles took that opportunity to bring Hernandez back to his original organization. The Dodgers signed the Dominican-born southpaw as an amateur in May 2016. Hernandez spent the next six-plus seasons in the L.A. farm system, topping out at Double-A Tulsa. He tallied plenty of punchouts in the low minors but never consistently found the strike zone. The Dodgers left him off their 40-man roster at the end of the 2022 season, allowing other clubs to take a flier in the Rule 5 draft.

Pittsburgh selected Hernandez with the third Rule 5 pick that December (behind Thaddeus Ward and another former Dodger farmhand, Ryan Noda). The Bucs secured his long-term contractual rights by carrying him in the MLB bullpen for all of last season. Hernandez showed the ability to miss bats at the MLB level, fanning 27.8% of opposing hitters behind a 12.5% swinging strike rate. He walked just under 10% of batters faced and surrendered nine homers in 50 2/3 innings, leading to a 4.97 earned run average.

The Pirates gained the right to option Hernandez to the minors after his first MLB campaign. They shuttled him between Pittsburgh and Triple-A Indianapolis for the season’s first couple months. Hernandez tossed 5 1/3 innings of two-run ball with four strikeouts and walks apiece at the big league level. He has been tagged for 12 runs over 15 1/3 Triple-A frames despite punching out 21 of the 75 hitters he’s faced (a solid 28% rate).

It was moderately surprising to see the Bucs move on from Hernandez not long after they satisfied the Rule 5 requirements. His velocity has been slightly down, perhaps contributing to the move. As a rookie, Hernandez averaged 82.9 MPH on his slider (which he uses as his primary pitch) and 94.6 MPH on his fastball. Those speeds were respectively at 81.6 MPH and 93.1 MPH during his major league work this year.

Hernandez has just over one year of service and is in his first of three minor league option years. The Dodgers can keep him in Triple-A Oklahoma City for the foreseeable future if he holds his 40-man roster spot.

The team essentially had an open roster spot thanks to Brasier’s injury. The veteran righty has been out since April 28 after suffering a significant strain of his right calf. He has yet to begin a minor league rehab stint. Brasier will be eligible for reinstatement two weeks from now — the 60-day minimum is backdated to his initial IL placement — but it’s not clear if he’ll be ready by that point.

The Astros’ Problematic Long-Term Outlook

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The Astros' recent run of success if one of the most remarkable in MLB history. Yes, what everyone now knows about their 2017 season will taint that legacy for many, but Houston has since won a second World Series, appeared in two more, and made the American League Championship Series every single year since 2017. Trash can jokes will never go out of style for some, but what the Astros have accomplished across multiple GMs and multiple managers in the past seven years is objectively incredible.

As we sit more than 40% of the way through the 2024 season, however, it's becoming increasingly apparent that times could be changing. Houston sits 8.5 games back of the Mariners in the American League West and would also need to leapfrog the defending World Series champion Rangers to get back into the division race. The Wild Card scene isn't all that much better. Houston is 5.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot, but with five teams standing between them and that potential playoff berth. The roster has been decimated by injuries.

At least at the moment, 2024 doesn't look to be the Astros' year. However, the bigger problem for the Astros isn't necessarily what lies ahead in the final three and a half months of the current season, but rather what looms beyond that point. Because when I say "times could be changing," I'm not referring to a simple one-year hiatus from their typically deep postseason runs. When it comes to the Astros, they're facing far larger and far more concerning long-term questions.

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Eloy Jiménez To Begin Rehab Assignment

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The White Sox announced today that designated hitter/outfielder Eloy Jiménez has been sent to the Arizona Complex League White Sox on an injury rehab assignment. Rehab assignments for non-pitchers come with a 20-day maximum before they need to be reinstated from the injured list, if there’s no health setback.

Jiménez, 27, suffered a left hamstring strain about three weeks ago. Manager Pedro Grifol said at that time that Jiménez was going to miss an “extended period of time” without putting a firm timeline on it. Now it seems that he’s ready to get back into games and, barring a setback, return to the major league club by the beginning of July or perhaps sooner.

The timeline is notable since Jiménez is an obvious candidate to be traded before the trade deadline. The White Sox are deep into a rebuild, having traded away players like Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Aaron Bummer, Robbie Grossman, Reynaldo López, Jake Burger and others in the past year. They have a dismal record of 17-52 this season, the worst in the majors by a significant margin.

Jiménez is in the final guaranteed season of the six-year, $43MM extension he signed with the Sox going into 2019. He’s making $13MM this year and then there are two club options. Next year’s is priced at $16.5MM with an $18.5MM option for 2026, with each of those having a $3MM buyout.

Over the course of that deal, he has shown the ability to be a significant threat in the lineup, but he has often struggled to deliver on that promise due to injuries. He has a career slash line of .271/.321/.479, which translates to a wRC+ of 116, indicating he’s been 16% better than league average overall.

However, his 122 games played in his rookie season are still a personal best. Since then, he has only once hit the 85-game mark. He has spent time on the IL due to a high right ankle sprain, a right ulnar nerve contusion, a left adductor strain, a ruptured left pectoral tendon, an appendectomy, a torn hamstring tendon and multiple left hamstring strains.

It’s possible that the compounding injuries are taking a toll on his body. He slashed .276/.327/.504 from 2019 to 2022 but has hit just .263/.310/.427 since the start of 2023, the latter line translating to a wRC+ of 102. Since Jiménez isn’t really a burner on the bases nor a strong fielder, the lesser offensive output is a blow to his value.

With the health problems and his diminished results of late, the interest is likely to be muted. What might help the Sox, however, is the expanded playoff field. As of this moment, the Sox are one of just five clubs that are more than 4.5 games away from a playoff spot. All other clubs will have to make some difficult decisions about how much to sell or whether to do any at all. The Rays and Blue Jays are reportedly putting off the decision until later while Astros general manager Dana Brown has said he plans on buying even though his club is near the back of the playoff race.

The Orioles could reportedly be looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder. The Mariners are leading their division but fired their offensive coordinator but of their struggles at the plate. Atlanta lost Ronald Acuña Jr. for the year and has been scuffling offensively lately. The Royals have a terrible outfield, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored for Front Office subscribers. Teams like the Cardinals, Guardians, Reds, Rangers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Twins could be looking for some extra firepower.

Before any of that can even be a consideration, Jiménez will have to get healthy and stay that way for long enough to show some promise against major league pitchers. This year’s trade deadline is on July 30.

How Will The Rays Approach The Deadline?

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The Rays enter tonight’s series finale against the Cubs sitting at the bottom of the AL East. They’re 32-36, within two games of the Red Sox and Blue Jays, but any chance they have of keeping pace with the Yankees and Orioles is gone. The Rays are four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League with four teams between them and the Twins.

While that deficit is hardly insurmountable, the Rays have played more poorly than their record indicates. They’ve been outscored by 63 runs, a worse run differential than the Angels’ -60 mark. Only the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, and A’s — very likely the four worst teams in the majors — have been outscored by more than Tampa Bay has. The Rays are in the bottom third of the league in batting average and on-base percentage. Only the White Sox and Miami have a worse slugging output. Tampa Bay’s rotation is 20th in ERA; their bullpen is 23rd.

With that level of play around the roster, it’s fairly remarkable that they’re only four games under .500. That’s mostly attributable to a 12-5 record in one-run games. That’s not a pace that most teams can sustain over the course of a season, and it’s not as if the Rays have had a lights-out bullpen locking down every small lead.

As deadline season approaches, the Rays have played like a team that looks like it won’t have much choice but to sell. They certainly haven’t resembled a club that has made five straight trips to the postseason and was one of the best in the American League en route to 99 wins last year. Some measure of regression was probably inevitable. Tampa Bay entered the season without three of its top starters in Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. They traded their ace (Tyler Glasnow) before his final year under contract. Wander Franco had been the team’s best position player. There was no way to completely replace the production they were losing at shortstop with Franco on administrative leave while he faces sexual abuse charges in the Dominican Republic.

All that said, the front office probably didn’t anticipate the team struggling to this extent. Their issues go beyond the players who aren’t available. Randy Arozarena is hitting .174/.282/.317 over 266 plate appearances. Yandy Díaz won a batting title and finished sixth in AL MVP voting last season. He has a league average .255/.315/.375 slash line in a team-leading 295 trips to the plate. Harold Ramírez had a .313/.353/.460 showing in 122 games a year ago. He hit .268/.284/.305 with only one homer in 48 contests before being designated for assignment last week. Brandon Lowe missed six weeks with an oblique strain and hasn’t hit well in the 27 games he’s played.

There are similar stories on the pitching side. The Rays acquired Aaron Civale last summer to stabilize their injury-riddled rotation. The righty has been tagged for a 5.20 ERA across 14 starts. Zach Eflin has been solid — a 4.06 mark through 12 outings — but hasn’t performed at the level that earned him a sixth-place finish in last year’s Cy Young balloting. Pete Fairbanks had a few rocky outings early in the season (although he’s found his form since returning from the injured list in mid-May). Phil Maton, signed to pitch in a high-leverage role, has been hit hard.

Opposing teams have taken notice. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that other clubs are monitoring in case Tampa Bay decides to orchestrate a deadline sell-off. Rosenthal lists Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Díaz as potential buy-low targets for other teams. That trio, not coincidentally, are three of the four highest-paid players on the Tampa Bay roster.

Rosenthal reports that the Rays have yet to seriously entertain selling, hoping the team will show signs of a turnaround. There’s still time for that to happen before the July 30 deadline. The Rays’ record in one-run games may not be sustainable, but it has prevented them from falling completely out of the playoff mix. The team hasn’t played well, yet there’s clearly more talent on the roster than they’ve shown through two-plus months.

Still, the Rays presumably won’t have qualms about moving veteran pieces if things do not improve over the next six weeks. Tampa Bay’s front office is accustomed to dealing stars even while the team is in contention, building a talent pipeline that generally keeps them competitive despite bottom five payrolls.

Arozarena is making $8.1MM in his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Lowe is making $8.75MM in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed in Spring Training 2019. The team holds successive options at $10.5MM and $11.5MM (with a $1MM buyout) for the next two years. The Rays just extended Díaz during the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $8MM salary this year and will make $10MM next season. Tampa Bay holds a $12MM option for the ’26 campaign.

While no one from that group is playing up to their previous standards, they’d each have appeal on the trade market. Arozarena, who had been a well above-average hitter in every season before this one, would net a particularly strong haul. Díaz is a limited defender, but he combined for a .314/.406/.475 slash line between 2022-23. His $10MM salary for 2025 is still below market value. Lowe should have the lowest trade value of the group given his injury history, but he’s one of the game’s better offensive second basemen at his best. While the Rays are probably trending toward declining next season’s $10.5MM option, it provides some contractual upside if Lowe finds his stride in the second half.

The players of intrigue go beyond that trio of potential rebound targets. Third baseman Isaac Paredes has been the team’s best player in 2024. He’s raking at a .291/.371/.479 clip and should be on pace for his first All-Star nod. Paredes owns a .245/.341/.469 batting line in more than 1200 plate appearances since the Rays pulled him from the Tigers in the Austin Meadows trade. He’s playing on a $3.4MM salary this year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player.

Paredes is under team control through 2027. The Rays would need a huge haul to seriously entertain moving him, but there’s some chance with top third base prospect Junior Caminero waiting in the wings. Eflin is due $11MM this season (making him the highest-paid player on the team) and will collect $18MM next year. There’d be a lot of interest at that price point for a quality mid-rotation starter. Tampa Bay could get a modest return for Amed Rosario as a solid multi-positional player on a $1.5MM salary. There’d be varying levels of interest in Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Garrett Cleavinger and Shawn Armstrong among contenders seeking bullpen depth.

Nationals Claim Eduardo Salazar From Mariners

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The Nationals announced that they have claimed right-hander Eduardo Salazar off waivers from the Mariners and optioned him to Triple-A Rochester. The Mariners had designated him for assignment earlier this week. The Nats had two vacancies on their 40-man roster, which is now at 39.

Salazar, 26, signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers in the offseason. That club added him to their 40-man roster in the middle of April but designated him for assignment just over a month later. The Mariners stepped up with a claim at that time but he lasted just over two weeks before being designated for assignment again, now landing with his third club of the year.

Around those transactions, he only has one appearances in the majors this year, tossing two scoreless innings for the Dodgers back on May 15. He made seven starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City while in the Dodgers’ system with a 5.61 earned run average. The Mariners kept him in a relief role for their Triple-A club, having Salazar throw 3 1/3 innings over four outings, allowing two earned runs.

There’s not much to go on in that sample, but the Nats had a couple of roster spots to use. Last month, they designated both Víctor Robles and Matt Barnes for assignment, opening up a couple of spots on their 40-man.

The Nats are likely intriguied by Salazar’s ability to generate ground balls. He did so at a 58.6% clip with OKC and it’s possible his 5.61 ERA there wasn’t entirely his fault as he had a .389 batting average on balls in play at that time. For reference, major league average BABIP is .288 this season. He also got grounders over 54% of the time with Reds last year, both in Double-A and Triple-A. He tossed 12 1/3 innings in the majors with the Reds last year, with a 51.1% grounder rate in that time. During his brief stint in the majors here in 2024, his sinker averaged 93.9 miles per hour.

Whether the Nationals envision Salazar as a starter or a reliever remains to be seen, but he has a couple of options. That means he can be kept in the minors for the rest of this year and one more season as they try to figure out the best path forward for him. If things click, he has less than a year of service time and can therefore be a long-term piece for the Nats.

Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Judge, Luis Robert Jr., Reds, Pirates, Royals

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It's time to crack open the MLB mailbag!  This week we get into a potential position change for Aaron Judge, possible Luis Robert Jr. trade packages, the AL Cy Young race, possible targets for the Reds, Pirates, and Royals, and much more.

Casey asks:

When Anthony Rizzo's contract runs out with the Yanks, do they move Judge to first? (He's tall enough to make a great stretch, should lower his injury risk and it makes room for Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones.)

The Yankees clearly won't be picking up Rizzo's club option for 2025, so he'll be a free agent after this season.  Judge, meanwhile, is signed through 2031 yet will turn 33 in April of next year.

It's so hard to take a competent outfielder and move him down the defensive spectrum with seven years left on his large contract.  On the other hand, that's similar to what the Phillies did with Bryce Harper, ending his time as an outfielder at age 30 with nine years left on his deal.  I never really understood that decision or why the Phillies weren't questioned more on it.  Here's what Harper said in February:

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Orioles Claim Levi Stoudt

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The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve claimed right-hander Levi Stoudt off waivers from the Mariners, who’d designated him for assignment earlier in the week. Left-hander John Means was transferred from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Stoudt has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk.

Stoudt, 26, was the Mariners’ third-round pick in 2019 and for a few years ranked among the organization’s most promising pitching prospects. Though he was never quite as highly touted as current rotation members like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo during their own prospect days, Stoudt was a well-regarded member of a deep Mariners pitching pipeline. He was talented enough to be included as a secondary piece — behind headliners Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo — in the trade that netted Luis Castillo from Cincinnati.

Stoudt would go on to make his big league debut with the Reds in 2023, pitching just 10 1/3 innings. The Pennsylvania native was tagged for 11 runs on 16 hits and eight walks over a stretch of four one-off appearances, being optioned back to Triple-A Louisville after each. Most of the damage against him came in his debut effort, when he was rocked for seven runs in four innings. The Reds removed him from the 40-man roster in the 2023-24 offseason, and the Mariners wound up reacquiring Stoudt via waivers.

Although Stoudt made six sharp starts in Triple-A with the Reds following the 2022 trade that sent him to Cincinnati, he struggled in Louisville last season, posting a 6.23 ERA in 82 1/3 frames. Things haven’t gone any better so far in 2024. He’s made 12 appearances with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma (11 starts) and posted an unsightly 6.92 earned run average. Stoudt has fanned a well below-average 14.9% of his opponents and issued walks at nearly as high a clip (12.4%).

Rough as his performance in Triple-A has been, Stoudt is an optionable starter with big league experience and a heater that sits just shy of 95 mph. Scouting reports during his prospect peak credited him with plus command — though that hasn’t been the case this season, clearly — with Baseball America calling his split-changeup an at-times “diabolical weapon” that lacked consistency. He’ll give the Orioles some needed rotation depth on the heels of season-ending surgeries for Means and Tyler Wells, and it’s always possible that Baltimore could shift him to a short relief role and see if his stuff plays up and allows him to emerge as a high-end relief option.

Reds Notes: Marte, Candelario, Rotation

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The Reds’ offense has underwhelmed as a whole this season — as have many lineups around the game — entering play Thursday with a tepid .226/.307/.372 batting line that clocks in 10% worse than league-average, per wRC+. Cincinnati ranks 13th in the majors in runs scored and 17th in home runs, but that’s largely been a function of situational hitting. Overall, Reds hitters rank 27th in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage and 21st in slugging percentage. They have baseball’s seventh-best walk rate, but also the game’s sixth-highest strikeout rate.

Injuries have played a large role. Matt McLain has been out all season due to shoulder surgery. TJ Friedl has only been able to take 80 plate appearances due to a pair of bad-luck fractures (one in his right wrist, another in his left thumb). Christian Encarnacion-Strand struggled when healthy and is now dealing with both a fracture and ligament damage in his hand, which could cost him the remainder of the season.

Another key factor in the Reds’ offensive struggles has been the absence of third baseman Noelvi Marte, who was hit with an 80-game suspension this spring after testing positive for a banned substance. Marte is gearing up for a return, however. The Reds have played 68 games this season, and the 22-year-old Marte recently went out on a Triple-A assignment to ramp up for his return to play. He’s appeared in two games and gone 3-for-10 with a trio of singles and three strikeouts so far.

Certainly, any time a player is hit with a PED-related ban, their prior offensive performance generates some skepticism among fans. Marte, who hit .316/.366/.456 (120 wRC+) with three homers and seven doubles in 123 plate appearances as a rookie, will have his share of doubters. But he’s long ranked among the game’s most promising prospects and has stunningly consistent results from the minors up through the majors. Marte hit between .271 and .281 at every stop from Low-A, to High-A, to Double-A to Triple-A. His on-base percentage at each of those stops fell between .356 and .369 (lining up with his .366 OBP in last year’s MLB debut). His slugging, similarly, clocked in between .451 and .464.

Marte will be eligible to return to the team later this month and could provide an immediate boost to a club that has seen its third basemen combine to bat just .215/.275/.407. Most of that has been Jeimer Candelario (.226/.294/.494 at the hot corner), though utilityman Santiago Espinal has also played at the hot corner and struggled when there.

Candelario recently spoke with MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon about his early slump this season, preaching the importance of remaining calm and positive during his difficult start to the season. The switch-hitting veteran batted just .189/.282/.379 through the end of April but has since heated up. Over his past 153 trips to the plate, Candelario is slashing .292/.333/.563 with nine homers, ten doubles, a triple, a 5.2% walk rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate.

Manager David Bell praised Candelario’s upbeat nature and even-keel demeanor in the face of his April struggles, telling Sheldon that the glowing reviews of Candelario’s personality and demeanor played into the team’s offseason interest in him. “Everyone we talked to about Jeimer had nothing but positive things to say,” said Bell. “Very important, not only the character in the clubhouse but being a hitter, the stability he provides our lineup.” Catcher Tyler Stephenson offered similar praise about what Candelario has meant to teammates.

Once Marte comes back, Candelario could slide across the diamond and handle first base on a regular basis, stepping in for the injured Encarnacion-Strand and pushing Spencer Steer back to the outfield on a more regular basis. That’d make for a deeper and more consistent lineup.

The offensive side of the game isn’t the only place the Reds have been upended, however. A potentially season-ending shoulder issue for lefty Brandon Williamson and some notable struggles from righty Graham Ashcraft have created uncertainty at the back of the starting rotation as well. While swingman Nick Martinez, who inked a two-year deal worth $26MM over the offseason, is always an option to step into a starting role, it seems the club will give an opportunity to young righty Carson Spiers in the near-term.

Bell said this week that Spiers will step into the rotation Monday (X link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The 26-year-old Spiers has appeared in five games for Cincinnati this season but worked in a multi-inning relief role. In 19 1/3 frames, he’s notched a tidy 2.33 earned run average with a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate against an excellent 5% walk rate. He’s been similarly effective in a starting role down in Triple-A Louisville. Through nine appearances (eight starts), the 6’3″ righty touts a 2.51 ERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate.

It’s not clear yet whether Spiers will be afforded a long-term audition or whether he’ll be ousted in the event that Ashcraft turns a corner down in Louisville after being optioned, but the undrafted 2020 free agent will have some control over his own fate when he takes the mound Monday at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park to take on the division-rival Pirates.

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