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Trade Deadline Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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MLBTR’s team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Red Sox. There has been a lot of drama in Boston this year and it hasn't always been smooth sailing. However, a ten-game win streak just before the break has catapulted them into buyer position. The question now is how aggressive they will be in adding to the club ahead of the deadline. With a glut of outfielders, would they be willing to use that surplus to bolster another area of the roster?

Record: 53-45 (55.9% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entrants in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: pitching, first base, backup catcher

The Sox have one elite pillar in their rotation, but it's questionable after that. Even that pillar comes with some degree of uncertainty. Garrett Crochet leads the club in starts and innings pitched, by a healthy margin in both cases. He has a 2.23 earned run average over 129 1/3 innings pitched.

Can he keep it up the rest of the way? In the early parts of his career, he was either hurt or working as a reliever. A move to the rotation last year worked out brilliantly, though the White Sox backed off his workload in the second half. He had 101 1/3 innings pitched through the end of June but then just 44 2/3 innings the rest of the way, finishing at 146 frames. Whether he can get that into the 200 range and still be effective in the postseason is something of an open question.

Even with Boston counting on Crochet to fill one playoff rotation spot, they would need more. Are Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello viable candidates? Giolito has been trending in a positive direction lately. He missed all of 2024 due to elbow surgery and then a hamstring strain put him on the shelf for the first month of 2025. Through his first seven starts, he had a 6.42 ERA, 18% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. In his most recent six outings: 0.70 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.

The Sox will have to decide if that's small sample noise or Giolito getting on track after years of struggles. From 2019 to 2021, he posted a 3.47 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate. But over 2022 and 2023, he had a 4.89 ERA and 25.5% strikeout rate. It would be great if he's back to his old self, but six starts is still a pretty small sample size.

It's a somewhat similar situation for Bello, who missed the first few weeks of the season due to a shoulder strain. Through eight starts, he had a 3.83 ERA, 16.1% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate. But in his seven most recent appearances, he has a 2.61 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate.

The options beyond those three are not inspiring. Walker Buehler has a 6.12 ERA on the year. Tanner Houck had an 8.04 ERA before a flexor pronator strain sent him to the injured list. Richard Fitts has some passable numbers but just 12 big league starts under his belt. Hunter Dobbins and Kutter Crawford are done for the year. Kyle Harrison isn't doing especially well in the minors. Patrick Sandoval could be a factor later in the season, but he's still a question mark for now. He had UCL surgery just over a year ago and has yet to begin a rehab assignment.

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Cardinals Sign First-Round Pick Liam Doyle

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10:00am: Doyle agreed to a $7.25MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB.com.

9:25am: The Cardinals announced Thursday that they’ve signed first-round pick Liam Doyle. The team did not disclose bonus terms. The fifth overall pick comes with an approximate $8.13MM slot value.

A left-hander from the University of Tennessee, Doyle was the third pitcher off the board on Sunday. The Cardinals were picking in the top five for the first time in almost three decades. Doyle became their highest-drafted player since J.D. Drew also went fifth in 1998. The organization’s most recent pitcher selected in the top five was Braden Looper, who went third overall in ’96.

Doyle struggled over his first two college seasons, which he divided between Coastal Carolina and Ole Miss. Things clicked for him during his junior year in Knoxville, as he turned in a 3.20 ERA across 95 2/3 innings in the nation’s best conference. The 6’2″ southpaw struck out 43% of opposing hitters. He recorded 164 punchouts overall. Only LSU lefty Kade Anderson, whom the Mariners selected with the third pick, had more strikeouts in the nation.

Keith Law of The Athletic ranked Doyle as the top pitcher in the class and the #2 overall prospect on his pre-draft board. Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN all had Doyle in the back half of their top 10. Evaluators all rave about the velocity and life on his upper-90s fastball, which dominated collegiate hitters. Some reports raised concern about the frequency with which he used the heater and/or his delivery, but most project him for at least average control. Law put a plus grade on his splitter and credited him with an above-average slider, projecting him as a potential #2 starter so long as the command continues to develop.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if we see Doyle in the big leagues by the end of the 2026 season. Five of last year’s top 14 selections — each from the college ranks — have already reached the majors. Doyle joins a farm system that includes Quinn Mathews, Tekoah Roby, Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence in the pitching pipeline. Twenty-five-year-old Matthew Liberatore is amidst an impressive season at the MLB level and looks to be breaking out as a long-term rotation fixture as well.

Rangers To Select Rowdy Tellez

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The Rangers will select the contract of first baseman/designated hitter Rowdy Tellez to the major league roster to start the second half, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll step into the active roster spot of first baseman Jake Burger, who hit the injured list yesterday due to a strained left quadriceps. Texas has an open spot on the 40-man roster to facilitate that move.

Tellez, 30, opened the season with the division-rival Mariners but was designated for assignment and released earlier in the summer. He signed a minor league deal with the Rangers on July 5 and has gone 5-for-15 with a pair of long balls in his brief time with their Triple-A Round Rock affiliate.

Tellez hit for power with the Mariners but struggled to get on base and turned in poor defensive marks at first base. He hit .208/.249/.434 and popped 11 round-trippers in 185 plate appearances. All but 14 of those turns at the plate for Tellez, who has pronounced career platoon splits, came against right-handed pitching. He’ll likely require a right-handed-hitting complement of some sort. Utilityman Ezequiel Duran presents an option in that regard, though he’s been more productive against fellow righties than in traditional platoon matchups in his career. Down in Triple-A, Blaine Crim and Justin Foscue offer righty bats with experience at first base.

Tellez has appeared in parts of eight MLB seasons and has more than six years of major league service. He’s a career .232/.299/.436 hitter in 2490 plate appearances. Tellez’s best season came with the 2022 Brewers, when he slugged 35 home runs in 599 plate appearances. He’s slashed just .226/.286/.394 (86 wRC+) with 37 home runs in 957 trips to the plate since that time.

Connor Norby Undergoes Surgery To Repair Hamate Fracture

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Marlins infielder Connor Norby underwent surgery to repair a fractured hamate bone in his left hand yesterday, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald. He’s expected to be sidelined for the next six to eight weeks.

Norby, 25, came to the Marlins alongside Kyle Stowers just under one year ago in the 2024 deadline trade sending lefty Trevor Rogers to Baltimore. He was placed on the 10-day IL a few days ago due to inflammation in his left wrist. The specific nature of Norby’s injury wasn’t clear at the time, but he’d been out of the lineup for the final two games prior to the All-Star break after experiencing discomfort in his hand/wrist at the plate last Friday.

A 2021 second-round pick and former top prospect, Norby had a solid debut for the Marlins following the trade last summer. He hit .247/.315/.445 with seven homers and three steals in 162 plate appearances down the stretch — albeit with a 32.1% strikeout rate. He’s pared back on the strikeouts a bit this year (26.7%) but had a tough season overall, slashing .241/.289/.364 in 273 trips to the plate. It’s not entirely clear how long Norby was playing through discomfort prior to his IL stint and subsequent surgery, but over his past 47 plate appearances he’s turned in an anemic .186/.234/.326 batting line, dragging his season-long numbers down quite a bit in the process.

Norby opened the 2025 season on the injured list due to an oblique strain but has been Miami’s primary third baseman when healthy. He’s played 68 games and logged 567 innings at the position, albeit with sub-par defensive grades (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -3 Outs Above Average). He’s also capable of playing second base, but the Fish have been using Xavier Edwards there after installing Otto Lopez as their everyday shortstop.

With Norby out for the foreseeable future, their options at third base include Graham Pauley, Javier Sanoja and Eric Wagaman, though the latter of that trio has been playing first base regularly as of late. Sanoja and Pauley drew starts in Miami’s final two games before the break.

The Fish also have infielders Jack Winkler, Maximo Acosta and Deyvison De Los Santos on the 40-man roster with their Triple-A Jacksonville affiliate. Winkler is a utility player with good speed who made his MLB debut briefly earlier in the season. Acosta has been strictly a middle infielder. De Los Santos has played both corners but spent the vast majority of his recent time at first base. None of the three are hitting well in Jacksonville, however.

Pauley, also a 2024 deadline acquisition (part of the Tanner Scott return), hasn’t produced in 94 big league plate appearances this year but has considerably outperformed Winkler, De Los Santos and Acosta in Triple-A. He’s taken 144 plate appearances with Jacksonville and slashed .260/.340/.496 with a 9.7% walk rate and a tiny 11.1% strikeout rate.

Read The Transcript Of Nicklaus Gaut’s Fantasy Baseball Chat

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Nicklaus Gaut will be talking fantasy baseball with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers today at 11 am Central Time. Get your question in early or participate in the live event at the link below!

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The Opener: Royals, Bubble Teams, Transactions

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Are the Royals buyers?

The first post-draft trade of the year took place yesterday and, while it shouldn’t shock anyone that the Pirates sold off veteran infield rental Adam Frazier, it’s at least a mild surprise that the buying club was the Royals. Kansas City has a pedestrian 47-50 record to this point in the year and remains 4.5 games out of the AL Wild Card picture. While they aren’t buried in the postseason picture, FanGraphs gives them just an 11.7% chance of making the postseason. That left many assuming that they were more likely to sell off short-term pieces like Seth Lugo than add rental players this summer, though it’s at least possible Frazier is something of a special case. The Royals are familiar with the 33-year-old after he was part of the club last year, and given the fact that he’s hitting just .255/.318/.336 this season he wasn’t exactly expensive in trade.

Still, the deal makes the Royals a team to keep an eye on coming out of the break, as a win streak could push them further away from selling. The Royals open the second half with three games in Miami, followed by three in Chicago against the Cubs. They’ll then host the Guardians and Braves in their final two series prior to the July 31 deadline.

2. Bubble teams nearing decision time:

While the Royals may have tipped their hand about their deadline plans to some extent, they’re far from the only team on the bubble between buying and selling. Fresh rumors about the Diamondbacks’ deadline strategy surfaced yesterday, and it wouldn’t be a shock if teams like the Braves, Twins, Rangers, and Reds joined them in sending some additional signals about their trade deadline strategies coming out of the All-Star break. Depending on how many teams decide to sell this summer, perhaps there’s even room for an opportunistic club more clearly on the buy-side of things like the Red Sox or Rays to part ways with a piece like Jarren Duran or Taj Bradley (both of whom have been in the rumor mill) in the right deal.

3. Transactions kicking up ahead of return to play:

Yesterday saw a handful of transactions around the league as teams start to begin preparations for the second half. The Rangers placed Jake Burger on the injured list to maximize their ability to backdate the IL stint, and it’s possible that any players around the league nursing potential injuries who played on Sunday could similarly be placed on the shelf today if their club believes a minimum stint is on the table. Aside from that, there was some movement surrounding the waiver wire as Elvin Rodriguez was plucked off waivers by the Orioles while Rob Brantly was DFA’d by the Marlins. Multiple players triggered opt-out provisions in their minor league contracts as well. Additional minor transactions like those could begin to take place today as teams prepare for their impending return to the field tomorrow, to say nothing of the possibility of another trade or two breaking today.

MLB Mailbag: Tigers, Gore, Athletics, Astros

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This week's mailbag gets into relief options for the Tigers, whether the Nationals should trade MacKenzie Gore, and the trade value of Athletics JJ Bleday and Luis Severino, as well as questions involving the Astros, Reds, Rangers, Cubs, and Red Sox.

Colin asks:

A few days ago, the Dodgers traded Noah Davis to the Twins for cash.  Davis was not at all successful with the Dodgers.  Can you tell me how much cash a team typically gets in a situation like that?

I ran this question by a front office friend.  He replied, "The dollar amount received by clubs trading away a DFA’d player for cash considerations almost always falls between $55,000 and $100,000.  There’s little incentive for clubs to trade the player for anything less than $50,000 because the club will receive that amount if the player is claimed off waivers. MLB caps cash transactions in this situation to a maximum of $100,000. Thus, most cash transactions of this nature end up in the $55,000 to $100,000 range."

Barry asks:

I really feel that Detroit needs two bullpen arms, one of which could close out games or be in the closing mix and match what AJ does. Any insight as to who the Tigers are looking at? I am thinking that David Bednar is the type of pitcher Detroit likes, controlling the strike zone, low walks.

Michael asks:

Coming out of the break, the Tigers have the best record in baseball and the biggest division lead. Nobody had that on their bingo card. In light of that, what should be Detroit's plan for the next two weeks? Should they swing for the fences and if so, how? Or look to add a piece here and there but not mortgage the future (or empty the farm) in favor of adding big names now?

The Tigers definitely need to add late inning relievers who can miss bats.  There's a good case to be made for signing David Robertson, who is reportedly throwing for interested teams.

The average MLB reliever punches out 22.4% of batters faced and has an 11.3% swinging strike rate.  We saw trade rumors on Mason Miller of the Athletics last summer; his K% is over 40%.  He's under team control through 2029, though, so the A's have no reason to trade him now unless they feel they're selling high or received an offer they can't refuse.

The Orioles' Felix Bautista is under team control through 2027.  He has a huge strikeout rate as well, but walks even more batters than Miller.  Bautista's teammate Seranthony Dominguez is in that same class.  A free agent after the season, Dominguez seems a lock to be dealt.  Same goes for Gregory Soto, so it makes sense for Scott Harris to be blowing up Mike Elias' phone.

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MLBTR Podcast: Rays’ Ownership, The Phillies Target Bullpen Help, And Bubble Teams

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Which 2025 All-Star hitter and pitcher are most likely to be traded ahead of the deadline? (29:50)
  • Will the Red Sox trade an outfielder to upgrade another part of the roster? Could they get Joe Ryan from the Twins? What should Boston do with Tanner Houck? (36:15)
  • Could the Padres trade Dylan Cease and still compete, the way the Tigers flipped Jack Flaherty and still made the playoffs last year? What will the Friars add at the deadline? (51:50)
  • How will the Mets use Clay Holmes the rest of the way? (59:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Firings in Washington, Bad Braves, And An AL East Shake-Up – listen here
  • Depleted Mets’ Pitching, The Pirates Are Open For Business, And More! – listen here
  • The Braves Say They Won’t Sell, Jeimer Candelario DFA’d, And Injured D-Backs – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Trade Deadline Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks are hanging on the outskirts of the playoff race. They enter the All-Star Break three games below .500 and 5.5 back in a strong National League playoff field. They'd surely prefer to buy in a season where they're running a franchise-record payroll and facing a number of potential free agent departures. With playoff odds hovering around 10% and an injury-depleted pitching staff, they'll need to come out of the Break strong to give the front office justification to add.

Record: 47-50 (10.2% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners, Padres, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds

Sell Mode

While the Diamondbacks could still go either way, they'd have a chance to really shape the deadline if they sell. They have the best collection of rental talent of any fringe contender.

Impending Free Agents: Eugenio Suárez, Zac Gallen, Josh Naylor, Merrill Kelly, Randal Grichuk, Jalen Beeks, Shelby Miller, Kendall Graveman, James McCann, Jordan Montgomery (out for the season)

Arizona's top four rentals would all be significant trade chips. Eugenio Suárez has emerged as arguably the best impending free agent hitter who could change hands. He's already up to 31 home runs with a .250/.320/.569 batting line. It's a continuation of last year's monster second half. Suárez has 52 home runs over the past calendar year -- tying him with Cal Raleigh for third in MLB behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He's a .277/.331/.586 hitter in his past 673 plate appearances.

Suárez is playing on a $15MM salary. That could be a bit of an obstacle for teams navigating luxury tax concerns but represents a significant bargain relative to his current production. The D-Backs could (and probably would) make him a qualifying offer if they hang onto him all year, but they'd be able to pull a stronger return in a trade. It seems unlikely that they'd re-sign him to a lucrative multi-year deal and block Jordan Lawlar's path to playing time. The Yankees, Cubs and Mariners should all have Suárez near the top of their wish lists. The Mets, Tigers or Reds could also make a push, and he'd make some sense for the Brewers if they can make the money work. Suarez was plunked on the hand in last night's All-Star Game but remained in to run and play defense. Postgame x-rays were negative.

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Latest On Marlins’ Deadline Plans

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The Marlins remain one of the clearest cut sellers as the deadline approaches. While Miami has somewhat quietly played well since the beginning of June, they remain in the middle of a multi-year rebuild. They’re still seven games under .500 and have almost no shot of making the playoffs this year.

It therefore comes as no surprise that Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald writes that the Fish plan to entertain offers on Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Jesús Sánchez and Anthony Bender in the coming weeks. All four players appeared among MLBTR’s list of the top 40 trade candidates earlier this month; Alcantara was in the top spot. Jackson adds that the Marlins are shopping impending free agent starter Cal Quantrill, though he’d have less trade value than the rest of the group.

Perhaps more interestingly, Jackson writes that the Marlins would be satisfied running it back with their current middle infield tandem of Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards next season. That’s not to say either player is untouchable, but they’re less likely to move than any of the four Miami players who made our trade candidates writeup. The 26-year-old Lopez is hitting .250/.320/.392 while taking over at shortstop. Edwards, who moved to second base, owns a .288/.352/.347 slash with 16 stolen bases. Both players are controllable for another four seasons.

[Related: Miami Marlins Trade Deadline Outlook]

Alcantara’s availability has been expected for months. He’s making $17MM this year and next, and he’s guaranteed a $2MM buyout on a $21MM club option for 2027. That’d be a bargain rate if he recaptured his ace form, but he has had a poor first season back from Tommy John surgery. Alcantara carries a 7.22 ERA with a diminished 17.3% strikeout rate over 18 starts. He had his best month in June (4.34 ERA) but has given up 11 runs in as many innings over his past two appearances. There’s little reason for the Marlins not to listen to offers, but it’s not a given that they actually pull the trigger on what would be a sell-low trade.

Moving Cabrera this summer would arguably be selling high. The 27-year-old former top prospect has posted a 2.54 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of his opponents in his past 12 starts. He’s making less than $2MM and under arbitration control for another three seasons. Miami would demand a significant return for their top realistic trade chip.

Jackson notes that the Marlins are nevertheless willing to consider offers in part because of Cabrera’s injury history. Shoulder problems sidelined him in both 2023 and ’24. He has yet to reach 100 innings in an MLB season. Cabrera departed his final appearance before the All-Star Break with elbow fatigue. While that’s not considered a serious issue — an MRI has already come back clean and he avoided the injured list — it’s the latest reminder of the injury risk for any pitcher, especially one with a mid-upper 90s fastball.

Sánchez and Bender are each controllable role players who should draw interest. Sánchez is a lefty-hitting corner outfielder who has been a league average regular over the course of his career. This season’s .259/.321/.410 slash line is par for the course. He’s making $4.5MM this year and will go through arbitration twice more.

Bender is a 30-year-old righty reliever who also has two and a half seasons of club control. He owns a 2.06 ERA in 39 1/3 innings, though that obscures unimpressive strikeout (18.9%) and walk (10.7%) numbers. Bender gets a lot of ground-balls and has gotten fantastic results on the mid-80s breaking ball that he uses as his primary pitch. He’s playing on a $1.42MM salary that’ll make him a viable fit for any contender.

As for Quantrill, the Marlins signed him with hopes of flipping him midseason. He’s making $3.5MM on a one-year free agent deal. Quantrill has below-average numbers for a third consecutive season, though. He carries a 5.62 ERA with a 19% strikeout rate over 81 2/3 innings. He’d profile as a sixth/seventh starter or long reliever on most contenders. There’d be minimal interest, but Quantrill is affordable enough that perhaps a team navigating multiple rotation injuries will take a flier. If they can’t find a trade partner this month, Miami could place him on waivers at some point in August in hopes of shedding the final few weeks of his salary.

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