Rays Assessing Hurricane Damage To Tropicana Field
The Rays released a statement on X today in the wake of Hurricane Milton passing through the Tampa and St. Petersburg area. “During the past couple weeks, our beloved city, region and state have been impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton,” the statement says. “We are devastated by the damage incurred by so many. Our priority is supporting our community and our staff. We are fortunate and grateful that no one was hurt by the damage to our ballpark last night. Over the coming days and weeks, we expect to be able to assess the true condition of Tropicana Field. In the meantime, we are working with law enforcement to secure the building. We ask for your patience at this time, and we encourage those who can to donate to organizations in our community that are assisting those directly impacted by these storms.”
Obviously, a sports stadium is not the top priority with a tragedy of this magnitude, but it is nonetheless a story with relevance to Major League Baseball that could impact the upcoming season. Drone footage shared on X by Ryan Bass of Bally Sports Florida clearly shows significant damage to the roof, with almost all of it ripped off, shredded into pieces that have fallen to the field below.
Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, club employees have begun the process of assessing the damage. Topkin notes that, due to the presence of the roof, the stadium was built with no drainage system. That means that water damage is a concern for as long as the roof is damaged and the field exposed to the elements.
The Rays are planning to open a new stadium adjacent to the Tropicana site but not until the 2028 season. As such, they will need to assess the playability of the Trop for the 2025 through 2027 seasons. They are scheduled to open the upcoming campaign at home on March 27, hosting the Rockies and then the Pirates for three game each.
As noted by Topkin, the Rays could potentially move to another location temporarily, if necessary. He cites the example of the Blue Jays, who weren’t able to travel to Toronto at the heights of the pandemic due to travel restrictions in 2020 and 2021. During that time, the Jays played at their minor league facilities in Dunedin and later in Buffalo.
Whether the Rays will have to follow a similar path or can return to the Trop by Opening Day 2025 will naturally depend on the severity of the damage and when it can be repaired. The club will undoubtedly be providing further updates in the coming days and weeks.
GM: Brewers To Stay “Open-Minded” On Possibility Of Trading Devin Williams
Brewers general manager Matt Arnold held a press conference today on the heels of the club being eliminated from the playoffs last week. Arguably the most notable thing he said was in relation to closer Devin Williams. “We have to stay open-minded,” Arnold said, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X. “We’re the smallest market in the league, so that’s something that’s required in this.”
Williams, 30, is slated to reach free agency one year from now. Due to the financial limitations that Arnold referenced, many Milwaukee players have found themselves in trade rumors as they have neared free agency. A player will generally see his salary increase as his window of club control narrows and the Brewers have often preferred to trade such players rather than holding them all the way to free agency.
Josh Hader, who preceded Williams as closer in Milwaukee, was flipped to the Padres at the 2022 deadline when he had just over a year of club control remaining. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles last winter, when he was one year away from the open market. Hader initially came to the Brewers in the 2015 deadline deal that sent a year-plus of Carlos Gómez to Houston alongside Mike Fiers.
Not every Milwaukee player will be traded in this situation. Shortstop Willy Adames was in plenty of rumors last winter but ultimately stayed for his final season of club control. He is now likely to depart but the Brewers will receive compensation if that comes to pass. They will make him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason and he is sure to reject that while pursuing a long-term deal.
The Brewers are unlikely to bank on the QO path with Williams. As a pitcher, there’s far more risk of him being hurt before getting to that point. The Brewers saw Brandon Woodruff felled by a shoulder injury when he was about a year away from free agency. He ultimately required surgery with a recovery time of more than a year, scuttling the chances of a trade or a qualifying offer. In that case, they agreed to a two-year deal to keep him around through 2025.
Williams himself was injured for much of 2024, missing time due to fractures in his back. On top of that, a QO salary would be steep for a reliever, even one that’s healthy and elite. This year’s QO is going to be $21.05MM and that number is likely to rise by this time next year. The best relievers can get in that vicinity in terms of average annual value. Edwin Díaz has an AAV of $20.4MM on his deal with the Mets while Hader got a $19MM AAV from the Astros.
Having Williams accept a QO for a one-year deal at a high rate wouldn’t be a drastic overpay but the Brewers likely prefer to exchange him for younger and controllable players now. Such trades helped them compose a decent chunk of their current roster. The Hader deal netted them Esteury Ruiz, who they were able to flip for William Contreras. Lefty Robert Gasser was also acquired in that deal, though he won’t be much of a factor in 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. The Burnes trade netted them DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Hall was injured and ineffective for much of 2024 but could still be a key part of the club’s future, while Ortiz immediately established himself as a piece of the club’s infield and could perhaps replace Adames at short next year.
Williams won’t make a massive amount of money in 2025, relative to the context of Major League Baseball. The Brewers and the righty avoided arbitration last year by agreeing to a $7MM salary for 2024 with a $10.5MM club option and $250K buyout for 2025. They might go for that buyout, as Williams would still be controllable via arbitration even if they take that path. Since he missed significant time due to injury in 2024, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams for a $7.7MM arbitration salary next year.
Per RosterResource, the club had a payroll of $116MM in 2024 but has only $76MM committed for 2025. Triggering club options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would get them close to the $90MM range while the club’s arbitration class is projected for about $37MM. A few non-tenders or trades could knock that down but the club will likely be starting the offseason with a similar payroll to what they had in 2024.
The club could perhaps see less revenue coming in on the broadcast side as their deal with Diamond Sports Group ended and they are pivoting to the direct-to-consumer model in 2025. That’s probably a smart move in the long run since Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process for a year and a half now, but the cash flow might be a bit slower in the short term.
A salary in the $7-10MM range for a pitcher of Williams’ quality is very affordable, even for a club like the Brewers. Considering a trade would save the club a bit of money for 2025 but would likely be more about helping them compete down the line. Instead of keeping Williams for another year and seeing him depart, potentially for nothing, it makes sense to see if the club can get building-block pieces in return, as they did in the aforementioned deals.
The club will be looking to replace Adames, which could be accomplished via Ortiz or Brice Turang taking over at shortstop. But doing so would open up a hole at second or third base. Sal Frelick moving to third base was explored in 2024 and manager Pat Murphy said that is still on the table going forward, per McCalvy on X, but Frelick is still unproven at the position with only four innings there in 2024. The Brewers normally aren’t big players in free agency and might not have much budget room this winter, so the trade market might be their best bet at filling in the roster.
Despite the aforementioned injuries, Williams continued to perform when on the mound. While the postseason ended on a sour note as Williams blew a save in the club’s final game against the Mets, that was after he posted a 1.25 earned run average in his 22 appearances during the regular season. His 12.5% walk rate was above league average but fairly normal for him, as he struck out 43.2% of batters faced.
Overall, Williams now has a tiny 1.83 ERA over 241 career appearances in the regular season. He has worked around an 11.8% walk rate by striking out 39.4% of opponents and keeping balls in play on the ground at a 48.1% clip. He racked up 36 saves last year, stepping into Hader’s role as the closer, and saved another 14 this year after recovering from his back injury.
Trading Williams would hurt Milwaukee’s bullpen but they could perhaps replace Williams internally, the same way that Williams himself replaced Hader. Trevor Megill had a strong season with a 2.72 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate was far lower than Williams’, but he also had a lower walk rate of 7.7%, racking up 21 saves mostly while Williams was hurt. He is set to reach arbitration for the first time this winter with a projected salary of just $2MM and two more seasons of control after that. Guys like Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig also had strong results in 2024 and could be considered for moving up the chain going forward.
Ultimately, whether a trade comes together or not will depend on what the Brewers are offered. But Williams is an elite reliever with an affordable salary, so he should garner interest from just about any club with designs on contending in 2025. It’s not a guarantee that he will be moved but he’s one of the most logical trade candidates for the upcoming winter and the club’s GM essentially acknowledged that the phone lines are open.
Qualifying Offer Value Set At $21.05MM
The qualifying offer in the 2024-25 offseason will be officially set at $21.05MM, reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported in August that the QO value was expected to land in the vicinity of $21.2MM but would not be finalized until October. This year’s QO value represents an increase of $725K over last year’s mark of $20.325MM. The QO value, which is determined by calculating the average salary of the sport’s 125 highest-paid players, has risen nearly every season since being implemented under the 2012-16 collective bargaining agreement. Here’s a look at the history of the QO value:
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM
- 2014-15: $15.3MM
- 2015-16: $15.8MM
- 2016-17: $17.2MM
- 2017-18: $17.4MM
- 2018-19: $17.9MM
- 2019-20: $17.8MM
- 2020-21: $18.9MM
- 2021-22: $18.4MM
- 2022-23: $19.65MM
- 2023-24: $20.325MM
For those in need of a refresher or new to the QO system entirely, it was implemented as a competitive balance measure in an effort to ensure clubs would receive compensation in the following year’s draft if their top players depart and sign elsewhere in free agency. Any team can issue a qualifying offer to an impending free agent at the beginning of the offseason, so long as that player A) has never received a QO in the past and B) spent the entire season on that club’s roster. (In other words: players can only receive one QO in their career, and traded players cannot receive a QO — a measure put in place to prevent big-market clubs from acquiring/claiming expensive players from small-market teams who couldn’t afford the risk of a QO themselves.)
Five days after the end of the World Series, teams must decide whether to issue a QO to any of their impending free agents. Those players will have a week to then survey the market to determine what sort of interest is present in free agency before deciding whether to accept a one-year deal at the QO value or reject it in pursuit of a larger contract. Players who accept the QO are considered signed in the same manner as any free agent, meaning they cannot be traded prior to June 15 of the following season without their consent. Players who reject a qualifying offer are then tied to draft compensation, potentially complicating their market in some cases.
In order to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer, teams must surrender at least one pick — two, in some cases — in the next year’s draft. Some clubs are also required to surrender space from their bonus pool in international amateur free agency.
Any club that pays the luxury tax must surrender its second- and fifth-highest picks in the next year’s draft and forfeit $1MM of international pool space. (Signing a second qualified free agent means surrendering the second- and fifth-highest of their remaining picks, and so forth.) Non-luxury clubs that do not receive revenue sharing must surrender their second-highest pick and $500K of international pool space to sign a qualified free agent. (Again, signing a second such free agent means forfeiting their second-highest remaining pick.) Non-luxury teams who also receive revenue sharing are required to forfeit their third-highest pick to sign a qualified free agent (and their remaining third-highest pick for additional qualified free agents).
There are similar structures in place for the team losing the free agent in question. A revenue-sharing club receives a compensatory pick either at the end of the first round (if the player signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money) between Competitive Balance Round B and round three (if he signs for under $50MM) in the following year’s draft. Non-luxury clubs who do not receive revenue sharing receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B. Luxury tax payors receive a compensatory pick between rounds four and five of the draft.
The relatively steep nature of the one-year offer and the risk of being “saddled” with a player that the club perhaps did not want to retain (but for whom they’d hoped to net a draft pick) typically lead to only a handful of players receiving the QO. Last year saw just seven players — Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Josh Hader — receive qualifying offers. All seven rejected them. The most recent examples of players accepting the one-year QO came on the heels of the 2022 season, when Joc Pederson and Martin Perez accepted their $19.65MM qualifying offers from the Giants and Rangers, respectively.
There are a handful of slam-dunk QO candidates among this year’s crop of free agents. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Max Fried, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez will all assuredly receive a QO and are all overwhelmingly likely to reject in search of a multi-year deal. Other candidates to receive a QO include Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Christian Walker, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Wacha, Ha-Seong Kim, and Nick Martinez, though not everyone from that group will ultimately receive one. Manaea, Wacha and Martinez all have opt-outs in their contracts they’re widely expected to exercise this offseason. Kim has an $8MM mutual option on his contract that he won’t exercise, although whether he receives a QO could hinge in part on the recovery timetable from his recent shoulder surgery, which is still not known.
Sponsored: Today is World Mental Health Day
This is a sponsored post from BetterHelp.
Get Matched to the Best Therapist for You. Self-Care is Focusing on Your Mental Health
What’s an important holiday you might not know about? World Mental Health Day on October 10th – encouraging all of us to talk about and take care of our mental health since 1992.
The Mental Health Of Athletes: Statistics, Self-Care, And Support
Athletes often experience high pressure, busy schedules, and exposure to harmful stigmas and stereotypes that can lead to mental health conditions or chronic stress and burnout.
If you’re an athlete, there are various ways you can practice self-care to improve your mental health.
Mental health challenges common in athletes
Up to 35% of elite professional athletes are living with a mental illness, and student-athletes and those who participate in athletics for pleasure are also at risk. Below are statistics on the most common mental health conditions in athletes.
Eating disorders
Eating disorders may be more common in athletes due to pervasive stereotypes about what an athlete’s body “should” look like. In addition, bullying or rejection from teammates, coaches, and team supporters can lead to individuals experiencing fear of shame or the loss of their athlete status if they gain weight, lose muscle, or experience bodily changes.
Depression
One study found that the prevalence of depression in athletes is around 15.6% to 21%. The same study reported that athletes who were at a higher risk of depressive disorders were those with sports injuries, those who had been terminated from their career as athletes, and those rated poorly in performance. Depression can lead to a higher suicide risk in athletes, so therapy is often recommended.
Anxiety
Research by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) found that almost 85% of certified athletic trainers believe anxiety disorders are an issue for student-athletes. Other studies report that sports can lead to high levels of stress and pressure, which can cause anxiety.
Substance use disorders
According to studies, medication and alcohol misuse are the most common forms of substance use in athletes. Athletes may self-medicate due to other mental health challenges, physical pain, or difficulty sleeping. In addition, “sports culture” can sometimes lead to social pressure to drink or take other substances. Breaking down stigmas on a societal and team level can be a way to reduce these challenges.
How to practice self-care as an athlete
If you’re an athlete, whether you practice for fun or are in an elite team, there are a few self-care tips you can consider.
Prioritize mental health as much as physical health
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), mental healthcare can reduce the risk of physical illnesses like heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. To prioritize your mental health, pay attention to what your emotions tell you, learn about self-care, take breaks when needed, and address your stress when it arises.
Challenge harmful practices, stigma, and misconceptions
Stigmas, harmful practices, and misconceptions are common in athletic communities. Below are some ways to challenge these:
- Refuse substance use if you’re not interested in partaking, and encourage teammates and other athletes to value bodily autonomy
- Speak up when someone uses a stereotype or stigmatizing term
- Report abusive or unethical team practices imposed in professional environments
- Speak up against transphobia in sports
- Share your own story about mental health and what helped you cope
- Be open about stress and stress management
- Take steps to address toxic masculinity in athletics
- Be accepting of the religious and cultural practices of team members
- Seek therapy and be open about it with others
Nurture a strong support system
Having a support system can significantly reduce mental health challenges, leading to increased wellness and quality of life and a reduced risk of physical illness. Nurture your support system by ensuring you spend quality time with those you love outside of a sports context.
How to find professional support as an athlete
Therapy can be an effective tool for reducing stress and the chances of mental burnout in athletes. For those facing barriers to in-person therapy, online platforms like BetterHelp may be more accessible. Through an online platform, athletes can access resources like support groups and worksheets and weekly therapy with a provider via phone, video, or live chat.
Studies show that online therapy can be effective in treating conditions commonly seen in athletes, like anxiety and depression. In one study, online therapy was found to be more effective in symptom reduction for these conditions than face-to-face therapy.
Takeaway
For those who are struggling, mental health treatment may be beneficial. Seeking help is not a sign of weakness but strength, and over 41.7 million US adults see a therapist. By talking to a professional, you can develop ways to cope productively with your challenges and potentially receive referrals to other support options, such as psychiatry or support groups.
The Opener: ALDS, Brewers, Dodgers
As the Mets move on to the NLCS for the first time since 2015, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. ALDS Game 4:
The Royals and Guardians are facing elimination today as both sides of the ALDS move on to Game 4. In Kansas City, the club’s hopes rest on flipping the script in a Game 1 rematch: Michael Wacha (3.35 ERA) takes the mound for the Royals, and the Yankees will counter with Gerrit Cole (3.41 ERA in 17 starts). Game 1 eventually turned out in the Yankees’ favor, as Wacha surrendered three runs over four innings and struck out three while Cole surrendered the same number of runs over five innings and struck out four.
Meanwhile, the Guardians will send right-hander Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA) to the mound opposite Detroit’s pitching staff, which has operated with all hands on deck in games where likely AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal isn’t on the mound. With his team’s season on the line, Bibee will hope to put up a similar or better performance to his outing in Game 1, where he struck out six Tigers in 4 2/3 scoreless frames before passing the torch to the club’s dominant bullpen in an eventual 7-0 shutout victory.
2. Brewers end-of-season presser:
As teams that made the postseason but have since been eliminated lick their wounds and look ahead to the coming offseason, part of the process is often a end-of-season press conference held by the club. The Brewers have scheduled their end-of-season press conference for 11am local time (h/t Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). The biggest question facing the Brewers this winter is how they’ll replace star shortstop Willy Adames, who is scheduled to hit free agency next month and figures to be out of the small-market club’s price range. Aside from Adames, the club will also see both Joe Ross and Frankie Montas head into free agency and could face questions regarding the future of closer Devin Williams has he enters his final season of team control. General manager Matt Arnold will tackle all that and more as he meets with the media this morning.
3. Dodgers facing questions ahead of Game 5:
Though the Phillies were sent home by the Mets in Game 4 of the NLDS last night, the Division Series still continues in California after the Dodgers forced a Game 5 against the Padres last night. The clubs are off today as they head back to Dodger Stadium, and the workout day figures to hold plenty of questions for L.A. as they figure out how best to line up their pitching staff and who is available from their positional corps ahead of a winner-take-all finale against their division rival.
As noted by Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, Roberts told reporters last night that not only has he not decided between Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty for who will start opposite Yu Darvish in Game 5, but that he’s even considering using neither and opting for another bullpen game after L.A. relievers shut out the Padres in Game 4 last night. Meanwhile, the health status of both first baseman Freddie Freeman and shortstop Miguel Rojas remains up in the air. Freeman was a late scratch from yesterday’s lineup due to the sprained ankle that has plagued him throughout the series, while Rojas is known to have aggravated an adductor injury that has bothered him in recent weeks.
MLBTR Podcast: Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- MLBTR’s early discussions for the upcoming Top 50 Free Agents post and the starting pitchers at the top of this winter’s market (1:00)
- The ongoing bankruptcy drama of Diamond Sports Group and how the upcoming offseason looks in terms of possible spending (11:45)
- The Red Sox seem poised for an aggressive offseason (20:35)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Y’all have repeatedly talked about the Tigers being at the beginning a strong period and riding a youth movement to the ALDS (if not further). In addition to adding some talent from outside the organization this winter, can we expect to see some of the homegrown guys being extended? Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter seem like solid options beside the obvious Tarik Skubal. (24:30)
- Did the reduction in time of the average baseball game negatively impact stadium concession sales? If a Dodger game goes from 3 hours to 2 1/2 hours, are they selling less beer? (28:05)
Check out our past episodes!
- Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here
- Final Days In Oakland, The Surging Tigers, And If The Nats Will Pursue Juan Soto – listen here
- The Matt Chapman Negotiations, Dodgers’ Pitching Injuries, And Strengths And Weaknesses Of Playoff Contenders – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals didn't use the word "rebuild" at last week's press conference, but it's abundantly clear that they're taking a future-focused approach and stepping back from what's been a perennial goal of fielding a contender for decades. The 2025 season will be president of baseball operations John Mozeliak's final year on the job. A new era of Cardinals baseball is approaching. Let's break down what the offseason could entail.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Nolan Arenado, 3B: $73MM through 2027
- Sonny Gray, RHP: $65MM through 2026 (includes buyout of 2027 club option)
- Willson Contreras, C: $59.5MM through 2027 (includes buyout of 2028 club option)
- Miles Mikolas, RHP: $16MM through 2025
- Steven Matz, LHP: $12MM through 2025
- Erick Fedde, RHP: $7.5MM through 2025
Option Decisions
- Kyle Gibson, RHP: $12MM club option with $1MM buyout
- Lance Lynn, RHP: $12MM club option with $1MM buyout
- Keynan Middleton, RHP: $6MM club option with $1MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ryan Helsley (5.105): $6.9MM
- JoJo Romero (4.045): $1.9MM
- John King (3.145): $1.5MM
- Lars Nootbaar (3.076): $2.5MM
- Brendan Donovan (3.000): $3.6MM
- Andre Pallante (2.145): $2.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: None
Free Agents
As the Cardinals' lackluster season drew to a close, it became increasingly clear that changes were on the horizon. Speculation ranged from the front office to the dugout. Ultimately, manager Oli Marmol will remain in place for the 2025 season, and Mozeliak will return for an 18th season leading baseball operations -- but with a caveat. Former Rays senior vice president and Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will oversee player development next season before taking the reins as the Cardinals' new president of baseball ops. General manager Mike Girsch has already been reassigned. In the dugout, several coaches have been let go already.
It feels almost foreign to be discussing the Cardinals, a bastion of competitive rosters in the NL Central for the past couple decades, as a team now focused not on who might be coming into the fold but rather who might be exiting the frame. That's reality, however, as much of the roster could turn over via a series of trades or surprising decisions on what otherwise seemed like straightforward option calls.
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Red Sox Making Multiple Coaching Changes
The Red Sox are moving on from six coaches, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. According to Speier, the departures from Alex Cora’s staff include first base coach Andy Fox, bullpen coach Kevin Walker, assistant hitting coach Luis Ortiz, mental skills coach Rey Fuentes, trainer Ben Chadwick and bullpen catcher Mani Martinez.
Fox was promoted to first base coach this past season. He’d previously spent time as Boston’s field coordinator. Fox had been in the organization for more than a decade. He played parts of nine seasons in the big leagues as a utility infielder, spending the bulk of that time with the Diamondbacks and Marlins.
Ortiz, who briefly appeared in the majors with the Red Sox during the mid-1990s, had been an assistant hitting coach for the last three years. Ortiz held the lead hitting job on Chris Woodward’s staffs with the Rangers between 2018-21. Ben Rosenthal has overlapped with Ortiz as an assistant to primary hitting coach Peter Fatse in Boston.
The Sox tabbed Walker as bullpen coach during the 2020-21 offseason. He’d spent the shortened season as an assistant pitching coach. Boston’s bullpen has generally been middle-of-the-pack over the past four years. The relief group was a disappointment this season, finishing 24th with a 4.39 earned run average and 23rd in strikeout percentage (21.9%). The bullpen cratered down the stretch. Only the Nationals’ relievers had a lower strikeout rate in the second half. No team had a worse ERA after the All-Star Break than the Sox’s 5.45, while Boston relievers led MLB with 16 blown leads.
That’s not all on the coaching staff, of course. The front office’s deadline pickups of Lucas Sims and Luis García didn’t work. Kenley Jansen missed most of September, while Chris Martin was shelved for the bulk of July. Nevertheless, the bullpen was one of the biggest factors in the Sox falling out of the Wild Card race, so they’ll look for a new voice. Strengthening the group in front of Rule 5 success story Justin Slaten and a hopefully health Liam Hendriks should be an offseason priority for Craig Breslow and his staff.
Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins
It's been almost a year since the Marlins hired Peter Bendix as their president of baseball operations. Since then, the club has been defined by a no-holds-barred commitment to the future, with seemingly no regard to PR considerations. They made almost no investments in the club last winter, aggressively traded away established players during the season and recently parted ways with their manager, their entire coaching staff and almost every other employee. Expect more of the same this offseason, with the club's collection of starting pitchers likely to be in plenty of trade rumors.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Sandy Alcántara, RHP: $36MM through 2026 (including $2MM buyout on 2027 club option)
- Woo-Suk Go, RHP (no longer on 40-man roster): $2.75MM through 2025 (including $500K buyout on 2026 mutual option)
Additional Financial Commitments
- Owe $17MM to released OF Avisaíl García
- Owe Yankees $10MM annually between 2026-28 as part of Giancarlo Stanton trade
Option Decisions
- none
Total 2025 commitments: $39.75MM
Total future commitments: $85.75MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)
- Jesús Luzardo (4.165): $6MM
- Anthony Bender (3.153): $1.4MM
- Jesús Sánchez (3.118): $3.2MM
- Braxton Garrett (2.168): $1.8MM
- Nick Fortes (2.149): $1.6MM
- Edward Cabrera (2.147): $2.2MM
Non-tender candidates: Fortes
Free Agents
- None.
The Marlins snuck into the playoffs in 2023 but it quickly became clear that owner Bruce Sherman didn't have faith in the club's overall direction. Shortly after the club was eliminated from the postseason, it was reported that he planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work above general manager Kim Ng. Understandably, she decided to turn down her end of a mutual option for 2024, rather than accept what was essentially a demotion. Manager Skip Schumaker was reportedly annoyed at the pivot, and the club agreed to void a 2025 club option in his contract, making it clear he wouldn't return beyond the 2024 season.
The sudden shakeup was frustrating for fans, but there was some logic to it. That 2023 club actually had a -57 run differential and a 33-14 record in one-run games, a hard feat to repeat. The farm system was generally regarded as one of the worst in the league by any outlet that measures such things.
Despite the playoff berth, change was afoot and that has been the name of the game since then. Rays general manager Peter Bendix was hired as president of baseball operations and showed that he essentially viewed the franchise in the same way as Sherman, with little regard for the club's short-term chances. The largest free agent deal they gave out last winter was $5MM for Tim Anderson.
The prophecy, somewhat self-fulfilled, came true quickly in 2024. The Marlins got out to a horrible start and Bendix didn't hesitate to start the selloff, with Luis Arráez flipped to the Padres in the first week of May. He continued the selloff closer to the deadline by sending out A.J. Puk, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trevor Rogers, Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing, Bryan De La Cruz, Huascar Brazobán, JT Chargois and Josh Bell. That list might have been even longer if it weren't for a large number of injuries to other potential trade candidates.
By the end of the 2024 season, the Marlins had accumulated 62 wins and 100 losses. It's clear that everything is focused on the long-term picture and there are no sacred cows. As mentioned up top, just about any major league player with trade value has seemingly been available. The manager is leaving, as is the entire coaching staff. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the club is parting ways with more than 70 employees, including "the team’s dietitian, home clubhouse manager and traveling secretary, and others." Though it has been painful and has been ruthless, it is commendable in a shocking sort of way that the club has committed to a long-term plan and is clearly dedicated to seeing it through.
Going forward, it seems fair to expect more of the same, at least until the club believes they have a core in place that is worth building around. Assuming that's the case, the Marlins will continue to trade big league pieces this winter, in the name of rebuilding for some future competitive window.
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No Extension Talks To Date Between Dodgers, Teoscar Hernandez
The Dodgers have not had any in-season extension discussions with Teoscar Hernández, the slugger told reporters before tonight’s possible elimination game (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Hernández doesn’t seem bothered by the lack of talks, saying that he’s focused on the season and hasn’t given free agency much thought.
Hernández has had a fantastic rebound on a pillow contract. He drilled a career-high 33 home runs through 652 plate appearances. His .272/.339/.501 slash was back to the form he showed during his peak years with the Blue Jays. His middling .258/.305/.435 line with the Mariners from 2023 looks like an anomaly — one driven by his struggles at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly home park.
That down year with the Mariners dealt a huge hit to Hernández’s market a year ago. He clearly didn’t find a multi-year deal that was to his liking. He disclosed the terms of one offer he received, telling Rob Bradford of WEEI in July that the Red Sox had proposed a two-year, $28MM deal. Hernández wasn’t interested in locking in multiple seasons at a diminished $14MM average annual value. He signed with Los Angeles for a total of $23.5MM, though he only collected $15MM this year. The remaining $8.5MM will be paid in 10 installments between 2030-39.
Hernández’s bet on himself paid off. He’ll return to free agency in a better position than he was last season. The Dodgers can make him a qualifying offer. He’d very likely decline that $21MM+ salary in search of a long-term deal. Hernández turns 32 next month, so he’ll probably be limited to three or at most four years. That could come at something like the $20MM average annual value which players like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos received as free agents. Hernández is probably the third-best outfielder in the class behind Juan Soto and Anthony Santander.
[Related: Previewing The 2024-25 Corner Outfield Class]
Gives Hernández’s productivity, it stands to reason the Dodgers will make some effort to retain the two-time All-Star whenever the season concludes. They could balk at paying market price on a multi-year deal running into his mid-30s, though. Shohei Ohtani’s presence means the Dodgers would need to commit to playing Hernández in left field for the entirety of the contract. L.A. moved Mookie Betts back to right field when he returned from injury in early August. They’ve used deadline pickup Tommy Edman as their primary center fielder.
They’ll want to keep a long-term outfield spot available for Andy Pages. The 23-year-old played mostly center field as a rookie. Prospect evaluators have generally projected Pages to a corner, which is supported by the middling defensive grades (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -1 Outs Above Average) he posted in center. The Dodgers have toyed with playing top catching prospect Dalton Rushing more frequently in left field. Barring an injury to Will Smith, there’s no path to regular playing time for Rushing behind the plate in Los Angeles.