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Phillies Sign Max Kepler

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year deal. It’s a reported $10MM deal for the VC Sports Group client. Philadelphia already had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Kepler changes uniforms for the first time in his career. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota organization. He signed with the Twins as a teenager and reached the big leagues late in the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in parts of 10 big league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching beyond the six-year control window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.

For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average right fielder. He looked as if he might on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer showing in 2019, but that proved to be an outlier in a season that was played with the juiced ball. Outside of that year, Kepler has typically been a 15-20 homer threat with decent on-base skills.

Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled injuries in both knees and only appeared in 105 games. Kepler was limited to a career-low eight home runs while posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line across 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the power. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base percentage in the process.

The Phillies are hoping that a healthy offseason could allow him to return to his prior form. Kepler had one of his best years as recently as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his career) across 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set personal highs in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and hard contact percentage (47.6%). His hard contact rate dropped by 11 points this year, suggesting that he was playing at less than full strength.

Much of Kepler’s diminished production came late in the season. He carried a league average .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 in the second half. The Twins resisted putting him on the IL for a while as they tried to hang onto a Wild Card berth, but his numbers tanked so far in August that he had to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a possible postseason push.

While it ended on a down note, Kepler had a productive run in the Twin Cities. He appeared in more than 1000 games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and just over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t much doubt that Minnesota would go in another direction this offseason, though. Ownership isn’t giving the front office much financial leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was never in the cards.

At his peak, Kepler was one of the sport’s best defensive right fielders. If not for sharing the Target Field outfield with Byron Buxton, he probably would’ve gotten more consistent run in center field early in his career. Kepler’s defensive grades are still solid but not as strong as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league average right fielder in a little over 800 innings this past season. Statcast credited him with two runs above average.

Better health could help him rebound on defense as well. Kepler fell below league average in Statcast’s sprint speed measurement for the first time. That’s not a surprise considering he was playing through knee pain. On both sides of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this year was a health-related blip rather than the sign of a sharp decline in his early 30s.

Kepler figures to play mostly left field at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a position he’s never played in the majors, though most right fielders can kick over to the opposite corner without much issue. Kepler hasn’t started a game in center field since 2021, so he’s probably no more than an emergency option there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are each likelier to handle center field work.

While there shouldn’t be much issue about the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him something of an odd fit. The Phils had sought to find a rotational outfielder who could cut into the playing time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been the most straightforward solution, allowing the Phils to shield Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would address that as a deadline pickup, but he spent most of his tenure on the injured list and was non-tendered last month.

Kepler doesn’t fit that need. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s much better against righties. Kepler has a career .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in more than 1000 plate appearances against southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d probably pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in center field. That’d put the onus on Kepler to stay healthy enough to play regularly in left field.

Marsh could always move back to left if Kepler lands on the IL, yet that’d leave the Phillies with the same middling outfield upon which they’re trying to upgrade. They’d certainly love to offload the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which would enable them to put Kepler in right field and add another outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos money is much easier said than done after he hit .254/.311/.431 this year.

It seems the Phils preferred the price point on Kepler over the asking price for the top righty-hitting outfielders available. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia had shown interest in Teoscar Hernández but apparently balked at the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was looking for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.

Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ salary commitments to roughly $280MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. They’re up to $299MM in competitive balance tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT number already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, so they’re subject to the highest set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, meaning they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM overall commitment on ownership’s part.

Once they go beyond the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed at the maximum 110% rate on further spending. The Phillies were a virtual lock to exceed the third tier regardless of whether they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their top draft choice in 2026 by ten spots (unless they miss the playoffs and draw into the top six in the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year deals addresses two of their biggest questions on relatively affordable terms.

Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies were progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the agreement and reported the $10MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Phillies, Nick Vespi Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies have agreed to a minor league deal with free agent left-hander Nick Vespi, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The Ballengee Group client will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Vespi, 29, has seen big league time with the Orioles in each of the past three seasons. He’s tallied 53 1/3 innings along the way, pitching to a solid 3.88 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.9% strikeout rate and a very strong 5.9% walk rate. Vespi embodies the “finesse lefty” archetype, sitting 89 mph on his cutter, but he’s missed bats (12.9% swinging-strike rate) and kept the ball on the ground (44.7%) at clips that are slightly better than league average.

Despite the solid work in the majors, Vespi was designated for assignment in late August and passed through waivers unclaimed. A disastrous showing in Triple-A this year surely contributed to that outcome. Vespi pitched 42 1/3 innings down in Norfolk but was rocked for a 7.23 ERA. A sky-high .424 average on balls in play played a role in inflating his earned run average, but Vespi also walked a very uncharacteristic 14.6% of his opponents and plunked three more. A whopping 16% of his opponents in Triple-A reached via base-on-balls or hit-by-pitch.

If Vespi can get back to the solid command he showed both in Triple-A and in the majors, he’ll have a good chance of pitching his way into the Phillies’ plans. He may not throw hard, but he’s been good in three Triple-A seasons prior to 2024 and has had some solid big league results in Baltimore. Vespi generally limits hard contact well — career 87.9 mph average exit velocity and 37.7% hard-hit rate — and did so quite well in Norfolk this year even while struggling with his bottom-line results (85.7 mph average exit velocity, 27.6% hard-hit rate).

He’ll need to earn the opportunity with a strong spring or impressive early work in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but if Vespi does land on the big league roster, he can be controlled not only for the 2025 season but an additional five years beyond that point.

Phillies Considering Workload Reduction For J.T. Realmuto

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Shortly after the team’s season came to an end, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated that veteran catcher J.T. Realmuto might see less time behind the plate in 2025 going forward. It wasn’t clear at the time what the specifics of that arrangement might look like, but Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer recently discussed the club’s plans regarding Realmuto in greater detail, relaying that manager Rob Thomson suggested this week that Realmuto’s performance may improve if he receives an extra day off per week during the season.

While Realmuto played just 99 games this season after undergoing knee surgery back in June, he averaged 135 games played per year from 2015 to 2023, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. While soon-to-be 34 year old has received occasional time at DH and even first base throughout his career, the overwhelming majority of his work has come behind the plate. That means he’s typically sat just once a week throughout his tenure behind the plate, a hefty workload for any backstop. Shifting to a schedule that sees him play something closer to five games per week with an extra day off would still leave Realmuto to play around 115 games per year, a workload comparable to those handled by Yankees rookie Austin Wells and Cubs youngster Miguel Amaya in 2024.

While 115 games per year wouldn’t light up the leaderboards among catchers in terms of volume, it’s worth noting that most catchers who rack up the playing time of a true everyday player see significant time at DH, first base, or another position on the diamond. Salvador Perez, for example, stepped up to the plate for the Royals in 158 games this year but was behind the plate for just 90 of those games. 115 games caught in 2024 would’ve been the eighth highest total in the majors and just 16 games behind Cal Raleigh, who led the league with 131 games caught.

Lauber notes Perez as an example of how scaling back defensive duties behind the dish can help aging catchers remain productive on offense. From 2015 to 2018, Perez hit just .252/.284/.448 (91 wRC+) while serving as the everyday catcher in Kansas City. After injury woes wiped out his 2019 season, Perez began to scale back his time behind the plate and has hit a far more robust .264/.309/.474 (109 wRC+) over the past four seasons. Given that Realmuto is a career 110 wRC+ hitter who has slashed an even more robust .264/.325/.455 (114 wRC+) over the past three seasons, it’s easy to imagine Realmuto’s bat being among the most impactful for his position in the game if he scaled back his catching duties.

With that being said, Lauber notes that the Phillies haven’t approached Realmuto regarding the possibility of more carefully managing his workload in 2025. That’s not the only thing the sides haven’t discussed, either; according to Lauber, the Phillies have yet to approach Realmuto about an extension despite the fact that he’s poised to reach free agency following the 2025 season. With that said, Lauber suggests that an extension could be discussed either later in the offseason or at some point during Spring Training. It was just last winter, after all, that the Phillies slow-played their extension talks with veteran ace Zack Wheeler despite clear interest in a deal from both sides. That deal wound up getting done in early March after months of rumors surrounding the possibility of extension talks.

Lauber speculates that a similar deal to the one Wheeler signed, which guaranteed him just three years at a record AAV, could make sense for both sides if the Phillies and Realmuto do pursue an extension. Catchers are risky long-term investments thanks to the physical toll the position takes on the body, and given that an especially lengthy deal seems somewhat unlikely. Even a three-year extension would guarantee Realmuto a contract through the end of his age-37 season, which would certainly carry some risk for Philadelphia given that 35-year-old Travis d’Arnaud was the only catcher to garner even 300 plate appearances at age-35 or older behind the plate this season. With that being said, next year’s class of free agent catchers figures to be relatively thin and the Phillies internal duo of Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan inspires little confidence as compared to the veteran, which could convince the club to roll the dice with Realmuto as he ages.

Angels Have Checked In On Arenado, Bohm, E. Suarez

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The Angels are known to be open to an everyday addition at third base, and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports they’ve at least gauged the respective asking prices for Nolan Arenado, Alec Bohm and Eugenio Suarez in talks with the Cardinals, Phillies and Diamondbacks, respectively.

The Halos are reportedly one of the at least six teams to which Arenado would approve a trade, though that’s a somewhat surprising development in and of itself. Both reporting out of St. Louis and, more recently, direct quotes from agent Joel Wolfe have suggested that the eight-time All-Star would prefer to land with a team that has a clear path to contention over the remaining three years of his contract. Said Wolfe earlier this week to a host of reporters at the Winter Meetings: “He wants a team that has the throttle down … that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

While the Angels are clearly looking to better the club — they’ve added Yusei Kikuchi, Jorge Soler, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Newman and Kyle Hendricks this winter — it’s less clear that those moves position them as a contender for the foreseeable future. The Angels’ 63-99 record was the fourth-worst in MLB last season, landing them last place in the American League West. Arenado is an Anaheim-area native, however, having been born in Newport Beach and attended high school in Lake Forest. That proximity to home could understandably hold some sway, especially when coupled with a series of win-now moves from the Angels over the past six weeks or so.

Arenado, 34 in April, is owed $74MM over the next three seasons, but the Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that under the terms of the deal that sent him from Denver to St. Louis several years ago. His offensive contributions have fallen off over the past two seasons — .269/.320/.426, compared to .293/.358/.553 in third-place MVP season in 2022 — but the six-time Platinum Glove winner remains a premium defender with excellent contact skills. That sets something of a high floor, while the money left on his contract means the asking price for Arenado (prospect-wise) won’t be exorbitant unless the Cardinals pay down a notable portion of the deal.

With Bohm, the asking price has appeared higher, at least in the Phillies’ early asks. They reportedly asked the Mariners about right-handers Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in early talks regarding the longtime Philadelphia third baseman — an outlandish ask even coming off a solid season for Bohm. (That said, it stands to reason the Phillies would aim high early in any trade talks.)

Bohm, 28, hit .280/.332/.448 this past season, but the overwhelming majority of his production came in an outrageous April wherein he slashed .366/.438/.598. From May 1 onward, Bohm hit just .258/.303/.410 — slightly below league-average production. He’s long had negative defensive grades at third base but made strides in 2024 according to both Defensive Runs Saved (0) and Outs Above Average (4). Whether that’s sustainable will be a question interested clubs weigh carefully. Bohm is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.1MM in 2025 and is controllable through the 2026 season.

It’s not entirely clear that Suarez is available — Arenado and Bohm very much are — but the D-backs are a medium-payroll club with inhouse options to step up in the event that a deal comes together. Top prospect Jordan Lawlar is all but MLB-ready, and young Blaze Alexander could take some reps at the hot corner alongside shortstop Geraldo Perdomo if the Snakes opt to give Lawlar a bit more seasoning in Triple-A.

At one point this season, Suarez even briefly looked to be losing the grip on his starting third base job to Alexander. Suarez caught fire shortly thereafter, however, and not only regained his form but was one of the game’s best hitters in the season’s final three months: .312/.357/.617, 24 home runs in his final 325 plate appearances from July 1 onward. That prompted the D-backs to exercise a $15MM club option. Suarez is a free agent following the season, though, and it’s feasible that the Diamondbacks could move him for some minor league talent, go with Alexander/Lawlar at third base in 2025, and reallocate Suarez’s salary to needs at first base, in the bullpen and on the bench. That’s speculative, but the fact that the Angels have at least checked in suggests the Diamondbacks didn’t expressly turn them away.

It seems clear that GM Perry Minasian is seeking upgrades at the hot corner, even with Anthony Rendon signed for another two seasons. Any of the three players listed here would fit the bill, given what the Halos received at third base last year (combined .217/.290/.311 batting line). That’s also true of Alex Bregman and Gleyber Torres — another reported target of the Angels — but Fletcher adds that Bregman and perhaps even Torres might be out of the Angels’ price range at this point. That Torres might be too spendy doesn’t bode well for an Arenado acquisition (again, barring financial help from the Cards), but Bohm and Suarez seem feasible.

Phillies Reportedly Among Teams Interested In Patrick Sandoval

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According to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, the Phillies have expressed interest in signing free agent starter Patrick Sandoval. Verducci also notes the Phillies aren’t alone in considering the left-hander, though he does not name any other teams that might have checked in.

Sandoval, 28, was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by the Angels earlier this offseason. The southpaw was projected to earn $5.9MM next year in his second season of arbitration eligibility. The Angels seemingly decided that was too much to pay for an arm who will not pitch for most (if not all) of the 2025 campaign; he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June. However, if Sandoval cannot pitch in 2025, he’d likely earn an identical $5.9MM salary in 2026. That’s a total of $11.8MM over both seasons. If he comes back healthy in 2026 and pitches anything like he has over the past four years, $11.8MM would still be an excellent value for his services.

From 2021-24, Sandoval threw 460 innings for the Angels, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 4.35 SIERA. His 5.08 ERA over 16 starts in 2024 was unsightly, but his 4.26 SIERA suggests he was the victim of some bad luck, as does his high BABIP (.341) and low strand rate (66.2%). According to FanGraphs, Sandoval has been worth 8.8 Wins Above Replacement over the last four seasons, including 1.2 WAR in 16 starts this past year. That’s an average of 2.9 WAR per 150 innings pitched. That kind of production goes for much more than $11.8MM on the open market.

Nevertheless, the Angels decided not to commit themselves to Sandoval, freeing him up to sign elsewhere as a free agent. He is likely looking for a backloaded two-year pact that would allow him to rehab with his new team in 2025 and hopefully pitch a full, healthy season in 2026. A good comparison is the two-year, $22MM contract Tyler Mahle signed with the Rangers last winter. He earned $5.5MM in the first year of the deal and will earn $16.5MM in the second. Like Sandoval, Mahle was rehabbing from Tommy John and unlikely to pitch for most of 2024. What’s more, Mahle had thrown 503 2/3 innings with a 4.22 ERA and 3.93 SIERA in the five seasons preceding his TJS, very similar numbers to Sandoval’s. Mahle had his surgery a month and a half earlier in the season than Sandoval did – early May as opposed to late June – which meant he was more likely to pitch in at least part of the first year of his deal. That might have given Mahle slightly more earning potential than Sandoval has right now. Still, it’s a useful point of comparison to estimate Sandoval’s value on the open market.

It’s easy to see why the Phillies would like the idea of a backloaded contract that keeps costs low next season. Their projected payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource) is currently $271MM, more than $20MM higher than last year’s final tally. However, they have several contracts coming off the books next winter. J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Jordan Romano, and Ranger Suárez will be free agents after this coming season, potentially freeing up more than $60MM in payroll. That would make it easier for Philadelphia to pay Sandoval a higher salary in the second year of his theoretical deal.

Speaking of Suárez, the Phillies could be eyeing Sandoval as a potential replacement if the former leaves in free agency before the 2026 campaign. Like Suárez, Sandoval is a left-hander with a deep arsenal of pitches. Suárez has been a key contributor for Philadelphia over the past four years, and he’s been slightly more productive than Sandoval. In 537 innings, he has a 3.27 ERA, 3.92 SIERA, and 11.2 fWAR. Yet, with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez already under contract for several more years and top prospect Andrew Painter nearing his debut, the Phillies might not be interested in keeping Suárez around long-term. Sandoval could represent an intriguing, and less expensive, alternative.

Phillies Trade Rule 5 Pick Mike Vasil To Rays

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5:20 PM: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes that the trade between the Phillies and Rays could be for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

5:11 PM: Mike Vasil wasn’t with the Phillies for long. Soon after the Phillies selected the right-hander from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, they turned around and flipped him to the Rays for cash considerations. Both teams have confirmed the deal.

Once a promising draft prospect in high school, Vasil suffered an injury in his senior year. He ended up withdrawing himself from the 2018 draft and attended the University of Virginia instead. Unfortunately, his stock plummeted after a rough few years in college. The Mets ultimately took him in the eighth round of the 2021 draft. To make matters worse, his struggles have only continued in affiliated ball. Over 43 starts at Triple-A across the past two seasons, he has pitched to a 5.78 ERA and 5.42 FIP.

Nevertheless, the Rays evidently saw something they liked in the soon-to-be 25-year-old. Entering the 2024 season, The Athletic’s Keith Law described Vasil as “a league-average starter at his peak with the potential to eat some innings.” Similarly, the staff at Baseball America considered him “a high-probability starter who might fit at no. 4 or 5 in a rotation.” Of course, both of those observations came before his rough 2024 season (6.04 ERA, 5.75 FIP in 134 IP at Triple-A). Still, Vasil’s selection in the Rule 5 draft suggests the Rays see him as an arm that could eat major league innings in 2025. What’s more, the Rays are known to enjoy tinkering with pitchers’ arsenals, and Vasil’s wide array of pitches seems to have made him a particularly appealing target. According to Baseball Savant, Vasil threw six different pitches in 2024: a sinker, cutter, four-seam fastball, changeup, sweeper, and curveball.

Rays assistant GM Kevin Ibach praised Vasil’s versatility, telling Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, “There are a lot of different ways he can impact a 26-man roster, more so than just a traditional reliever.”

It’s possible the Rays and Phillies tentatively agreed to this swap before the draft. Then again, if the Phillies hadn’t picked Vasil, the Rays could have scooped him up themselves in the second round. The vast majority of teams pass in round two; this year, only the Braves made a second-round selection. Regardless, the Rays are presumably better able to imagine giving Vasil significant innings to pitch in 2025.  As a Rule 5 pick, he needs to stay on his new team’s 40-man roster (or the 60-day IL) all season. Otherwise, he has to be placed on waivers, and if he clears waivers, he must be offered back to his original club (the Mets).

If Vasil thrives in a Rays uniform, he wouldn’t be their first Rule 5 trade success. Two years ago, the Rays acquired Kevin Kelly from the Rockies for cash considerations shortly after Colorado selected him in the Rule 5 draft. Kelly has been one of Tampa Bay’s top relievers over the past two seasons, pitching to a 2.88 ERA and 3.34 SIERA in 125 appearances.

2024 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2024 Rule 5 draft took place this afternoon at the Winter Meetings in Dallas. The results of the draft are below.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2025 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.

Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs. The A’s took Mitch Spence from the Yankees with the top pick and kept him all year. Justin Slaten was plucked from the Rangers by the Mets and then traded to the Red Sox. Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books.

Here are this year’s picks…

  1. White Sox: RHP Shane Smith (Brewers) (Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline relayed the pick on Bluesky prior to the draft)
  2. Rockies: pass
  3. Marlins: C Liam Hicks (Tigers)
  4. Angels: LHP Garrett McDaniels (Dodgers)
  5. Athletics: RHP Noah Murdock (Royals)
  6. Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert (Rays)
  7. Blue Jays: RHP Angel Bastardo (Red Sox)
  8. Pirates: pass
  9. Reds: 2B Cooper Bowman (Athletics)
  10. Rangers: pass
  11. Giants: pass
  12. Rays: LHP Nate Lavender (Mets)
  13. Red Sox: pass
  14. Twins: RHP Eiberson Castellano (Phillies)
  15. Cardinals: pass
  16. Cubs: 3B Gage Workman (Tigers)
  17. Mariners: pass
  18. Royals: pass
  19. Tigers: pass
  20. Astros: pass
  21. Mets: pass
  22. D-backs: pass
  23. Braves: RHP Anderson Pilar (Marlins)
  24. Orioles: pass
  25. Guardians: pass
  26. Padres: RHP Juan Nunez (Orioles)
  27. Brewers: LHP Connor Thomas (Cardinals)
  28. Yankees: pass
  29. Phillies: RHP Mike Vasil (Mets); Phillies later traded Vasil to Rays for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs.
  30. Dodgers: pass

Second round (all but one club passed)

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. Right-hander Hobie Harris, who pitched for the Nationals in 2023 and signed a minor league deal with the Mets last month, was taken by the Red Sox.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

Nolan Arenado Willing To Approve Trades To Six Teams

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As Nolan Arenado’s trade market continues to percolate, the no-trade clause in the third baseman’s contract puts Arenado and his camp in the driver’s seat when it comes to determining whether or not he’ll leave the Cardinals.  MLB.com’s John Denton reports that Arenado would okay a deal to any of the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox.  It isn’t known if these are the only six clubs on what Denton describes as Arenado’s “wish list,” or if Arenado could be amenable to deals to any other clubs in the right circumstances.

Agent Joel Wolfe discussed his client’s situation with reporters (including Denton, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) today at the Winter Meetings, and implied that Arenado’s list of potential teams is “bigger than you would think.”  The chief factor in Arenado’s decision-making is finding “a team that he thinks is going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career.  He wants a team that has the throttle down….that he believes he can jump right in and they’re going to win right now.”

This all being said, Wolfe noted that Arenado is “not going to go just to go,” or “approve and move his family and go play somewhere that would…sidestepping” into a situation no better than his current spot in St. Louis.  Wolfe said he and Arenado have been in regular dialogue with Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, with Mozeliak floating some teams that have already been dismissed as “hard no’s of where he’d prefer not to go.”

Earlier reports indicated that three unknown “mid-market” clubs also had interest in Arenado’s services, so these could be some of the teams Arenado has already vetoed since the six teams on his list are bigger spenders.  The Yankees had also been linked to Arenado and Goold reports that the Cardinals were in touch with the Bronx Bombers about the third baseman.  As Jones notes, the Yankees seem like a fit on paper given their need at third base and the presence of Arenado’s good friend and old Rockies teammates DJ LeMahieu, but it remains to be seen if the Yankees are still on Arenado’s radar.

New York’s other team could also have an opening at the hot corner depending on how the Mets choose to deploy Mark Vientos, or whether or not the Mets re-sign Pete Alonso or add another big first base bat.  The Phillies likewise have an incumbent third baseman in Alec Bohm, but Bohm’s name has been mentioned in several trade rumors as one of the big-league roster pieces Philadelphia is reportedly open to moving to address other needs.

The Red Sox and Padres were more speculatively linked as suitors a few weeks ago, and Goold reports that St. Louis has already been in contact with these two clubs about Arenado.  Boston’s interest could hinge on whether or not they’d move Rafael Devers off third base, while Arenado’s own apparent willingness to leave his longtime third-base position might be related to his interest in joining the Padres (as San Diego already has a star third baseman in Manny Machado).

Wolfe addressed his client’s offer of a position change as a way to get in front of any awkward questions from a team’s end on the subject.  “The way he phrased it, ‘I’ll play first,’ sometimes [teams] don’t want to ask a player to do that,” Wolfe said.  “So he wanted to offer it and say, ‘I’m happy to play first, I can move around and play third.’ Nolan was like, ‘I’ll play shortstop, I’ll do whatever, but I’m not insulted to go play first, and I can win a Gold Glove over there, if that’s what it takes.’ ”

Since Arenado is from Southern California, it shouldn’t be ignored that the Padres, Dodgers, and Angels are all on his approval list, though Wolfe said Arenado has no geographic preference about his next destination.  It could be argued that the Angels might be on Arenado’s list solely due to location, as a team coming off nine straight losing seasons hardly seems to match Arenado’s preference for a team ready to win.

A trade to the Dodgers seems off the table, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and Katie Woo hear from sources that “a deal for Arenado is not a possibility the organization has considered.”  L.A. general manager Brandon Gomes made a point of saying Monday that Max Muncy was going to remain as the team’s regular third baseman, and a position switch wouldn’t much help Arenado find a spot amidst the crowded Dodgers infield.

It remains to be seen if any of Arenado’s preferred teams may or may not want to bring the eight-time All-Star into the fold, though even in the event of mutual interest, there’s also the matter of working out a trade that is also acceptable to the Cardinals.  Other complications include Arenado’s age (he turns 34 in April), his declining power over the last two seasons, and the $74MM ($10MM covered by the Rockies) in salary owed over the remaining three years of his contract.

Yankees, Mets Among Top Suitors For Garrett Crochet

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One day after the Mets and Yankees finished battling for the top free agent, they’re in the competition for arguably the winter’s #1 trade candidate. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic report that the New York teams are currently the most aggressive suitors for White Sox’s lefty Garrett Crochet.

The Athletic writes that the Red Sox and Phillies have also expressed interest, but they appear to be behind the New York teams for the moment. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network put the Brewers on Crochet this morning, though The Athletic report does not mention Milwaukee. Rosenthal and Sammon indicate that no team is close to pulling off a deal yet.

Crochet stayed healthy in his first full season as a starter. The Sox pulled back his workload after failing to line up a deadline trade. Chicago never shut him down or skipped his turns through the rotation, but they abbreviated his starts at the end of the year. Crochet finished the season with 146 innings across 32 appearances. He turned in dominant rate stats, striking out 35.1% of batters faced against an excellent 5.5% walk rate. His 3.58 earned run average didn’t quite align with those fantastic peripherals. That’s at least in part because he was pitching in front of one of the game’s worst defensive teams, contributing to an elevated .318 average on balls in play against him.

Going into 2025, Crochet projects as a top-of-the-rotation arm. He shouldn’t have as many concerns about his workload down the stretch. His deadline trade candidacy was also complicated by the late revelation that he was seeking a contract extension if he’d be asked to pitch into the postseason during his first season as a starter. That’s no longer an obstacle.

Chicago GM Chris Getz spoke in generalities about a potential Crochet trade. He repeated the organization’s preference to add young hitting talent but suggested they weren’t opposed to building around pitching if they felt it was the best offer (X link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Getz reiterated that he didn’t feel compelled to make a trade this offseason, though it’d be a major surprise if Crochet were still in a White Sox uniform by the end of March.

Of the New York teams, the Mets have more talent at the top of the farm system. Their system is headlined by shortstop Jett Williams. Baseball America ranks 19-year-old infielder Jesus Baez as the #3 prospect in the organization. Ronny Mauricio is a former top prospect who might’ve opened the season as New York’s third baseman had he not torn his ACL in winter ball last year. Third baseman Brett Baty has seen his stock dip as he’s underperformed against MLB pitching, but he’s drawing attention as a change of scenery candidate. While Baty no longer has the pull to headline a Crochet package, he could be of interest as a secondary piece. (The Sox built their deadline return for Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech around Miguel Vargas, another post-hype infielder.)

The Yankees’ system is headlined by Jasson Domínguez. There’s a sharp drop thereafter, however. It’d be a surprise if the Yanks were willing to put Domínguez in a Crochet package. The switch-hitter may well be New York’s starting center fielder next year, with Aaron Judge potentially kicking to right field after Juan Soto walked. Outfielder Spencer Jones and infielders George Lombard Jr. and Roderick Arias were once viewed as Top 100 type talents, but they’re all coming off somewhat alarming minor league seasons. Jones and Arias struck out at huge rates, while Lombard didn’t hit for much power in A-ball.

Crochet is controllable for two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a bargain $2.9MM salary. Even for the New York franchises, the affordability is appealing. The Yankees could prefer to attack the lineup in free agency rather than make a top-of-the-market splash for starting pitching. The Mets still need a top-of-the-rotation starter. They’ve thus far shied away from making that kind of move in free agency, instead building the rotation with upside plays for Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas.

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