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Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market

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There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.

The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.

The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.

MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).

The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Phillies Meeting With Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Phillies officials are meeting with right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto this afternoon, tweets John Clark of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Philadelphia joins the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox among the teams that has met or is scheduled to chat with the Japanese star.

Yamamoto’s camp has made the rounds this week. The 25-year-old has gotten attention from the majority of large-market franchises, particularly those on the coasts. Last week, Will Sammon of the Athletic suggested that seven teams had emerged as strong suitors for the 5’10” pitcher. With seven clubs known to have meetings scheduled with Yamamoto, it’s possible the field is essentially finalized. In a full column, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that there’s no indication the Cubs or Cardinals are planning to meet with Yamamoto.

Of the group that seems to remain in the mix, Philadelphia might have the longest odds. The Phils already made one major rotation splash this winter, retaining Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM pact. A starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez is already strong. The Phils could certainly bump Sánchez back into relief to make way for Yamamoto, who is regarded as a likely top-of-the-rotation arm in the majors. Yet it’s possible teams like the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees will feel greater pressure to dish out a megadeal for rotation help.

Yamamoto is coming off a 1.21 ERA in 164 innings, arguably the best performance of an exceptional career in Japan. He has been named NPB’s best pitcher in each of the past three seasons. MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $225MM guarantee at the start of the offseason. In recent weeks, there’s been increasing speculation that a deal could approach or exceed $300MM. The signing team would owe a posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes on top of the guarantee to Yamamoto.

Roster Resource projects the Phillies payroll around $237MM for the upcoming season. That’s a little shy of the $243MM range that they carried to start this year. The Phils have roughly $252MM in luxury tax calculations, which puts them into the first tier of penalization and not far off the $257MM second threshold.

Bryce Harper Interested In Extension With Phillies

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After some speculation over the last few weeks that Bryce Harper was interested in extending his deal with the Phillies, agent Scott Boras confirmed the matter when speaking with reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) at the Winter Meetings.

“Bryce has let me know that he wants to work out an extension so that he knows that he’s going to be there for the remainder of his career….Apart from my advice, he goes, ’I just want to go and make sure that I can recruit players to Philadelphia.  I want the fans in Philadelphia to know that I’m going to be there for the duration and that I’m committed.’  I think he’s been an important voice for them to attract major free agents and other players,” Boras said.

Harper is still not even halfway through the 13-year, $330MM contract he signed with the Phillies as a free agent during the 2018-19 offseason.  At the time of the signing, Harper’s contract was the most expensive in baseball history, and it still ranks seventh all-time in terms of total dollars.  In terms of average annual value, however, Harper’s deal doesn’t crack the top 40 all time, as he is making a relatively (in a very broad sense) modest AAV of just under $25.4MM per season.  In terms of actual dollars, Harper is still owed $196MM through the 2031 season.

The deal was a straight 13-year pact without any opt-outs or club option years, which was by design.  At the time of the signing, Harper stressed that he wanted long-term security for the rest of his career, so he could focus on baseball without having to worry about any future changes of scenery or upcoming trips to free agency.  This dovetailed with the Phillies’ desire to add premium talent while also keeping costs (again) relatively in check in terms of the luxury tax.  With Harper’s money spread out over a longer term, that $25.4MM AAV puts less of a hit on Philadelphia’s annual luxury tax bill.

Since the Phillies have exceeded the tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, the AAV benefits of Harper’s contract are perhaps even more important to the Phillies now than it was at the time of Harper’s signing in February 2019.  On paper, this gives the team little reason to consider extending a player who is already locked up through his age-38 season.  Even if the Phils are open to indeed retaining Harper into his 40’s, it makes sense for the club to wait at least a few more years to monitor any signs of decline in Harper’s play.

In addition, Harper is also coming off two seasons hampered by injuries and defensive limitations, as a UCL tear and subsequent Tommy John surgery limited Harper to DH-only duty and then some time at first base over the 2022-23 seasons.  Though Harper is now apparently healthy enough to resume right field duties, Philadelphia will instead use him as the everyday first baseman in at least 2024, allowing the Phillies to both address a first base need and to get more at-bats in the outfield for such players as Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, and Cristian Pache.

Even with these injuries clouding the picture, Harper is still unquestionably a force at the plate.  He has hit .284/.395/.536 over 2497 plate appearances in a Phillies uniform, as well as a whopping 1.137 OPS over 126 PA in the postseason.  Harper was the NL MVP in 2021, and he helped lead the Phillies end their playoff drought with a World Series appearance in 2022, and then a trip to Game Seven of the NLCS in 2023.

If Harper was a free agent now entering his age-31 season, would he land more than eight years and $196MM?  The answer certainly would appear to be yes, as Harper’s mighty bat might very well outweigh any concerns over his long-term health or defensive future.  Speculatively, if security is still Harper’s focus more than pure money, the Phillies could float an extension that adds a couple of years to Harper’s contract at a lesser AAV, or perhaps a restructured deal entirely that lengthens the contract but lowers the Phils’ annual tax hit even further.

East Notes: Rays, Phillies, Nationals

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Several Rays players have come up in trade rumors recently, with the team currently set to run a payroll well north of $100MM, far higher than the $70MM to $90MM range they have sat in for the past three seasons. Among those trade candidates are Tyler Glasnow, whose $25MM salary makes him far and away the highest-paid player on the roster, and Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes, each of whom is sure to earn a sizeable raise in arbitration this winter.

However, president of baseball operations Erik Neander threw some cold water on the rumors surrounding Arozarena and Paredes on Monday. While the Rays seem to be actively shopping Glasnow, the executive clarified that the team is merely listening to offers for the left fielder and third baseman (per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Fielding trade proposals is simply standard operating procedure and a matter of due diligence for an MLB front office, especially for a team like Tampa Bay that is often highly active on the trade market.

That doesn’t mean either player won’t be traded this offseason, but it’s a meaningful distinction nonetheless. Arozarena and Paredes are still an excellent value in their early years of arbitration, and the Rays aren’t desperate to get either one off the books.

More news from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • Turning to the NL East, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Phillies are planning to pick up a bullpen piece this offseason, and they’re also considering an outfield acquisition. It’s no surprise the Phillies are looking for another reliever, in light of Craig Kimbrel’s departure in free agency, but the note about an outfielder is slightly more revealing; after all, the three primary outfielders from the team’s 2023 postseason roster are all set to return in 2024. Indeed, with Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and Johan Rojas already on the roster, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would only add another outfielder if he finds the “right fit” (as relayed by Coffey). Perhaps that means another impact bat to take over full-time duties in left field while Marsh platoons with Rojas in center.
  • While the Nationals aren’t likely to contend in 2024, president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo is still planning to improve the on-field product. “I think we’re going to be aggressive again this year looking for a bat that can play the corner infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left field, or a combination of all three of those,” the executive told reporters during the Winter Meetings. “And then we’ll resort back to getting more pitching” (per Mark Zuckerman of MASN). Of particular interest, Rizzo also mentioned that the team is prepared to offer multi-year contracts “in the right situation,” which isn’t always common for teams in the middle of a rebuild. Over the previous three offseasons, the Nationals have only signed one free agent to a multi-year deal: Trevor Williams, who signed a two-year, $13MM deal last December.

Phillies Extend Manager Rob Thomson

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The Phillies have extended the contract of manager Rob Thomson through the 2025 season, per a team announcement. He’d previously been signed through the 2024 campaign, so this will tack another year onto his deal and prevent him from entering the coming season with lame-duck status. The Phils also announced the hiring of Dustin Lind and Rafael Pena as assistant hitting coaches. Lind was previously an assistant hitting coach with the Giants. Pena has spent six seasons with the Astros organization and most recently served as their minor league hitting coordinator.

Thomson, who turned 60 in August, spent 15 seasons as a coach between the Yankees and Phillies before finally getting elevated to his first big league managerial gig in 2022, when the Phils dismissed then-skipper Joe Giradi. Thomson, his bench coach, was expected to take over the club for the remainder of the year, but the turnaround enjoyed by the Phillies under his watch has since earned him an increasingly lengthy look as the team’s skipper.

Following Thomson’s appointment as manager in ’22, the Phillies went 65-46 to close out the season, sneaking into a Wild Card berth in the National League playoff scene. They made the most of that longshot playoff bid, toppling the Cardinals in the Wild Card series, the Braves in the NL Division Series and the Padres in the NL Championship Series. The Phils eventually came up short in a 4-2 World Series loss to the Astros, but their ascent to the Fall Classic stands as one of the more remarkable midseason turnarounds in recent memory.

Unsurprisingly, on the heels of that run and with the clubhouse rallying around Thomson as a leader, the Phillies shed the “interim” label last November and inked Thomson a to a two-year contract. The Phils enjoyed further success in 2023, once again earning a Wild Card berth and once again winning multiple postseason series. After an 87-win season in 2022, the Phils won 90 games this past season before besting the Marlins in the Wild Card round and, for a second straight season, overcoming the division-winning Braves in the NLDS. The Phillies fell in the seventh game of the NLCS against the World Series runner-up Diamondbacks.

The 35-year-old Lind, in addition to four years with the Giants organization, spent two seasons with the Mariners as a quality assurance coach and director of hitting development. Pena, 33, has served as a minor league hitting coach with the Astros in addition to coaching stints in the Arizona Fall League and the Dominican Winter League. They’ll both work underneath hitting coach Kevin Long, one of the sport’s most respected voices in that position. Long is returning for his third season as Philadelphia’s hitting coach.

Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks

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Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.

While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.

The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.

[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]

If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.

That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.

That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.

Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.

Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.

Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.

The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.

San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.

Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.

Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.

Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.

As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.

Phillies, Jose Ruiz Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies and right-handed reliever Jose Ruiz have agreed to a minor league contract, reports Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors. He’ll be invited to major league spring training this year and compete for a spot on the roster. Ruiz is repped by the OL Baseball Group.

Ruiz, 29, split the 2023 season between the White Sox — for whom he pitched from 2018-23 — and the D-backs, who acquired him for cash in April after Chicago designated the hard-throwing righty for assignment. He was rocked during the season’s first week in Chicago, yielding nine runs in just 3 2/3 innings, but Ruiz pitched decently with Arizona for much of the season.

In 40 2/3 frames with the eventual NL champions, Ruiz logged a 4.43 ERA with a 19.8% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 42.4% ground-ball rate. He averaged 96.6 mph on his heater along the way and notched a healthy 12.5% swinging-strike rate against a roughly average 31.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate. He also managed hard contact fairly well in Arizona, with better-than-average marks in exit velocity (88.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (34.4%).

Command was an issue for Ruiz throughout the year, as it has been more often than not in his career. While the 9.3% walk rate he posted with the Snakes was better than his ugly 10.9% career mark, it’s also still higher than the league-wide 8.6%. Beyond that, Ruiz’s command within the zone was lacking, which contributed to the hefty 1.55 home runs he allowed for every nine innings pitched this season.

The D-backs could’ve retained Ruiz through arbitration by adding him back to the 40-man roster, but they instead opted to let him become a free agent, which led the Phillies to pick him up on what amounts to a no-risk commitment. If he’s able to round back into form, he could be controlled for as many as three more seasons. Ruiz’s 2022-23 campaigns don’t stand out, but as recently as 2021 he racked up 65 innings of 3.05 ERA ball over 59 appearances with the ChiSox, striking out 23.2% of his opponents against a more palatable 9.2% walk rate.

Ruiz is out of minor league options, so if the Phillies do add him to the roster at some point, they won’t be able to send him down without first passing him through outright waivers.

Details On The Dodgers’ And Braves’ Pursuits Of Aaron Nola

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Aaron Nola’s new deal with the Phillies is the winter’s biggest free agent headline to date, as Nola returned to Philadelphia for seven years and $172MM.  Reports filtered in that the Braves also had significant interest in Nola, and that the right-hander turned down larger offers in order to remain with his longtime team, and the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber shed some light on those other suitors in a piece from earlier this week.

The Dodgers were another major bidder, Lauber writes, with the specific phrasing that Los Angeles “put a finger on the scale at $165MM.”  It isn’t exactly clear from this wording whether or not the Dodgers perhaps just floated this figure or if they made a formal offer to Nola’s representatives, yet it is fair to assume the latter is true given the seemingly quick timeline of events, considering that the Phillies and Braves were both bidding hard and Nola wanted to decide sooner rather than later about his future.

As for other teams, Atlanta made a starting offer of $162MM over six years, and then made a final offer worth presumably more.  Beyond the Braves and Dodgers, the Phillies thought more team were also involved in the Nola sweepstakes, “with at least one other club offering more” than Philadelphia’s $172MM.

Naturally it isn’t at all surprising that Nola drew such high-dollar interest, given his status as one of the top free agents available in this offseason’s market.  MLBTR ranked Nola fifth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract.  He ended up getting more overall money than our projection, if less of an average annual value stretched out over a seventh year of a contract, yet the Phillies’ ability to just get close to comparable offers from other teams was enough to seal the deal.  “Nola strongly preferred staying with the Phillies, and his agent Joe Longo let it be known that $172 million would get it done,” Lauber writes.

Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos typically likes to make most of his bigger moves earlier in the offseason, and that trend has continued.  The bullpen has been a major early focus, as Reynaldo Lopez was just signed to a three-year deal worth at least $30MM in guaranteed money, and Atlanta retained Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson before free agency officially opened.  The Braves were also very aggressive in cutting down their list of arbitration-eligible players, with a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders that ultimately shaved a decent chunk of money off the payroll.

The exact size of that 2024 payroll and what Anthopoulos has to work with isn’t yet known, leading to quite a bit of speculation about what exactly the Braves are planning.  Obviously landing Nola would have taken up a big portion (if not all) of whatever payroll space Atlanta has left, and the Braves are already on pace to top their team-record $203MM payroll from last year.  The Braves are also set to surpass the luxury tax threshold for the second consecutive year, which adds another interesting wrinkle — signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like Nola would’ve cost the Braves two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus money as compensation.

Under Anthopoulos, the Braves have usually made measured strikes in the free agent market.  Most of Anthopoulos’ biggest moves have been trades, with his free agent signings usually limited to veterans on one-year or two-year deals (if at a high average annual value).  Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 is far and away the biggest contract Anthopoulos has given to a free agent, and Nola’s contact would’ve drastically exceeded Ozuna’s number.

While the Dodgers are no stranger to big-money deals, it is worth noting that Nola at a $165MM price tag would’ve also represented the biggest free agent contract of Andrew Friedman’s tenure running the L.A. front office.  Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM pact from the 2021-22 offseason is the current benchmark, and the fact that Los Angeles was willing to spend so much on Nola is an early sign of how aggressive the team plans to be this winter.

Signing the durable Nola would’ve been a huge help to a Dodgers rotation that is lacking in experience, as the team is expected to add two or three pitchers to the group via free agency and trades.  This is alongside the Dodgers’ other big pursuit of the winter, as Los Angeles is seen as one of the favorites — if perhaps the favorite — to sign Shohei Ohtani to what will almost surely be the biggest guaranteed contract in baseball history.  The Dodgers may be way under the luxury tax threshold for now, but with Ohtani’s situation, severe pitching needs, and some other roster holes to be addressed, L.A. doesn’t appear to have any reservations over surpassing the tax for the fourth straight year.

One team absent from Nola’s market was Boston, as the Red Sox “weren’t meaningfully involved in bidding,” according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.  This tracks with reports from mid-November suggesting that while the Sox were interested in a top-tier starting pitching addition, Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were the team’s preferred options ahead of Nola and Blake Snell.

MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
  • Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
  • Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
  • Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
  • Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here
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