It’s no secret that the Phillies wanted to extend Aaron Nola last winter.
Speaking on WIP-FM radio in January, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said an extension for Nola was “something we’d like to do” (as relayed by Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). He further explained, “We want Aaron to be in the organization for a long time, no question. We love him. We love his abilities. I know he likes it in Philadelphia. So that’s something that will be in our mind… It’s never easy to be able to get done, but we’d love to keep Aaron in the organization for a long time.”
About a month later, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported that the two sides had exchanged offers, and a few months after that, Jon Heyman of the New York Post revealed that the team’s offer was north of $100MM, although he noted it was well short of the $162MM guarantee Carlos Rodón got from the Yankees in December.
Now, Bob Nightengale of USA Today is reporting that the two sides were never particularly close to an agreement. According to Nightengale, the All-Star right-hander sought an eight-year deal worth over $200MM – significantly more than Rodón’s six-year, $162MM pact. The Phillies, for their part, weren’t willing to go anywhere near that number, instead offering a four- or five-year contract.
It’s understandable why Nola was asking for so much, but at the same time, it’s no surprise the team was hesitant to extend him through his age-38 season. Heading into the 2023 campaign, the righty looked like one of the top impending free agents, perhaps second only to Shohei Ohtani. Ten free agents had signed nine-figure deals the previous winter, and the highest-paid pitchers, Rodón and Jacob deGrom, reeled in $185MM and $162MM, respectively. Nola has never been as dominant as those two pitchers at their best, but he is far more durable, and since his first full season, he has outpaced both in Baseball Reference WAR. Thus, it was always going to take a sizeable guarantee to convince him to forgo free agency.
The Phillies have long been hesitant to sign pitchers to long-term contracts. The largest deal the team has ever signed with a pitcher was a six-year, $144MM extension for Cole Hamels during his age-28 season. Meanwhile, the largest free agent contract they’ve given to a pitcher was a five-year, $120MM pact for Cliff Lee, when the veteran was entering his age-32 campaign. Needless to say, an eight-year, $200MM extension for Nola would have been completely unprecedented for this ball club.
At the same time, the Phillies have been more aggressive with their spending since Dombrowski took over, surpassing the luxury tax for the first time in 2022 and signing a free agent to a nine-figure deal in each of the past three offseasons. What’s more, Dombrowski signed several pitchers to big-money contracts during his time with the Tigers and Red Sox, namely Justin Verlander, David Price, and Chris Sale. Nevertheless, the Phillies and their top baseball executive weren’t willing to meet Nola’s demands for an extension this past winter.
Nola could still be back in Phillies pinstripes next season, but at this point in the year, it’s all but certain he’ll test the waters of free agency first. While his performance in 2023 may have brought down his value (4.46 ERA in 32 starts), he remains one of the most durable starting pitchers in the game. Moreover, his underlying numbers are less offensive than his ERA (3.75 SIERA, 3.77 xERA, 4.49 K/BB), and he has looked phenomenal thus far in the postseason. The 2018 Cy Young finalist should be among the most sought-after righties on the market, along with Ohtani, Sonny Gray, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Indeed, at least one team, the Cardinals, has already expressed interest in pursuing Nola this winter.
