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Read The Transcript Of Today’s Chat Hosted By Former MLB Pitcher Josh Lindblom

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Righty Josh Lindblom was drafted in the third round by the Astros back in 2005.  Instead of signing, he went to the University of Tennessee, and then after a year transferred to Purdue.  Lindblom was able to boost his draft stock during his time there, becoming the Boilermakers’ closer, and was chosen in the second round by the Dodgers in 2008.

Lindblom was quickly considered one of the Dodgers’ top prospects, and seemed on the fast track to the Majors.  He nearly made the team out of camp in spring training ’09, and saw phrases like “future closer” tossed around by Baseball America.

Lindblom reached the Majors in June of 2011 and ended up making 27 relief appearances with a 2.73 ERA that year for the Dodgers.  At the 2012 trade deadline, Lindblom was in the middle of a solid season when the Dodgers traded him and others to the Phillies for Shane Victorino.  After the season, the Phillies shipped Lindblom to the Rangers in a deal for Michael Young.

With the Rangers, Lindblom moved back to a starting role and made his first big league start against the A’s.  However, in December 2013, Lindblom was traded again, this time to the A’s.  He spent most of 2014 at Triple-A without much success, and was designated for assignment after the season.  The Pirates claimed him off waivers, but soon after he was released to sign with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization.

Lindblom made 62 starts from 2015-16 in KBO, and then signed a minor league deal to return to the Pirates after the ’16 season.  He made four big league relief outings for the ’17 Pirates, marking a gap of more than three years between appearances in the Majors.

Having been cut by the Pirates in the summer of 2017, Lindblom returned to KBO to join the Doosan Bears for the 2018-19 seasons.  This time around he dominated, pitching to a 2.68 ERA over 363 1/3 innings.  He won the top KBO pitching award in both of those seasons.  With KBO success, excellent spin rates, and a new approach to pitching, Lindblom was a hot commodity in free agency that winter, nabbing the #42 spot on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list.  He landed a three-year, $9.125MM contract with the Brewers.

Lindblom’s Brewers debut happened to be the shortened COVID season, though he was still able to make ten starts for the club.  He began the following season in Milwaukee’s bullpen, but wound up spending 2021 and ’22 at Triple-A.  In January of this year, Josh announced his retirement.  He thanked those who helped him throughout his career, noting, “Most of us don’t get to choose when we finish.”  Lindblom tallied 209 innings in the Majors with six different teams, striking out 200 batters.  He was particularly tough on Paul Goldschmidt, punching him out six times in 12 plate appearances.

You can follow Josh on Twitter @JoshLindblom52.  Recently, Josh joined the Brewers’ player development staff.

I reached out to Josh to see if he’d be up for chatting with MLBTR readers, and he spent an hour fielding questions on his fondest MLB memories, the differences between MLB and the KBO, the experience of making the transition between those two leagues, and his new role with the Brewers’ player development staff.  Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat.

Phillies, Rhys Hoskins Have Not Had Extension Talks

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Following the Phillies postseason run in 2022 which shocked the baseball world as they fell just two wins short of a World Series championship, the expectations surrounding the team have changed dramatically. Philadelphia followed up on its surprise run with a busy offseason, landing Trea Turner on an 11-year deal while bolstering the pitching staff with multiyear deals for Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm. The club also bolstered its bench and bullpen with one-year deals and trades, adding Josh Harrison and Kody Clemens to the club’s bench options while adding Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto to the late-inning mix.

In addition to external additions, the club has been active in extending both players and personnel. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski, GM Sam Fuld, and relievers Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado have all been extended since the postseason concluded. The club has reportedly exchanged offers with ace right-hander Aaron Nola as well, indicating a desire from every corner of the Phillies organization to keep this group together for the foreseeable future. Despite this apparent desire, however, Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb report at The Athletic that longtime Phillie Rhys Hoskins may not be part of those plans, as the club and Hoskins have yet to begin extension talks.

Hoskins, 30 next month, is set to become a free agent following the 2023 season. The slugger came up through the minor leagues as a first baseman, but spent the early part of his major league career primarily playing left field in deference to Carlos Santana before returning to the cold corner following a trade that sent Santana to Seattle. Wherever he’s played the field throughout his career, however, Hoskins has always hit: in six seasons a big leaguer, Hoskins has never finished a campaign with a wRC+ below his 2019 figure of 112, or 12% better than league average.

For his career, Hoskins is a 125 wRC+ hitter with a slash line of .242/.353/.492 and 304 extra base hits in 667 games. While Hoskins strikes out at an elevated clip (25.1% in 2022), he more than makes up for that deficiency with his proclivity for drawing free passes. Hoskins boasts a 13.5% career walk rate and even as his walk rate has ticked downward in recent years, his 10.7% rate in 2022 still ranked in the 80th percentile of all qualified hitters, per Statcast.

As Rosenthal and Gelb note, the market for first basemen this past offseason would indicate that Hoskins could aim for a deal in the $20MM AAV range on the open market. That’s above what Josh Bell received from the Guardians but right in line with what Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu received from the Yankees and Astros, respectively. Bell is younger than Hoskins but lacks his track record of consistency and opted for a short term deal that would allow him to return to the open market following the 2023 season. Rizzo and Abreu, meanwhile, have stronger overall resumes to this point in their careers, but are several years older than Hoskins, meaning their current contracts are set to take them into their mid-to-late thirties.

While an AAV in the range of $20MM might be a reasonable estimate for Hoskins on the open market, it’s understandable why the Phillies may be hesitant to make such a commitment. After all, the club already features Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos as defensively-limited sluggers on high dollar contracts, and it’s possible that Bryce Harper, whose work in the outfield defensive metrics had largely soured on in recent years even before his Tommy John surgery last November, could be viewed similarly as he enters his thirties. With each of those sluggers locked up through at least 2025, it would hardly be a surprise if Dombrowski’s front office decided that the resources required to retain Hoskins would be better utilized elsewhere, such as in extending Nola.

Should Hoskins hit the market, he seems poised to be among the best bats of a 2023-24 free agent class that lacks much position playing star power outside of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. Fellow corner slugger Teoscar Hernandez and Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman are among the other players headed towards the open market. That being said, barring a significant downturn in performance from Hoskins in 2023, he seems like a prime candidate to be tendered a Qualifying Offer by the Phillies in order to recoup some value should he sign elsewhere. As a team paying into the luxury tax, the Phillies would receive a 2024 draft pick after the fourth round as compensation for any qualified free agent who signs elsewhere in the coming offseason.

Rhys Hoskins Underwent Meniscus Surgery In December, Ready To Start Spring Games

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Now entering his age-30 season, Hoskins has been a quality hitter pretty much from day one in Philadelphia, hitting .242/.353/.492 with 148 home runs and producing a 125 wRC+ over 2877 career plate appearances in six MLB seasons.  Hoskins would naturally love to keep that production going in order to help the Phillies’ chances at returning to the World Series, but a big 2023 campaign would also help Hoskins as he enters free agency next winter.  The Phils already have a lot of long-term money on the books and might soon add another pricey deal if they reach an extension with Aaron Nola (another pending free agent), but it stands to reason that the club would also have some interest in locking Hoskins up to an extension.  That said, Boras Corporation clients like Hoskins usually end up testing the open market, and the Phillies might have some reservations about committing a long-term deal to a first base-only player.

Rhys Hoskins underwent a meniscectomy on his right knee in December, Phillies manager Rob Thomson told Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer and other reporters.  The relatively minor procedure corrected some “wear and tear,” Thomson said, and Hoskins is expected to make his in-game spring debut sometime this week.

Now entering his age-30 season, Hoskins has been a quality hitter pretty much from day one in Philadelphia, hitting .242/.353/.492 with 148 home runs and producing a 125 wRC+ over 2877 career plate appearances in six MLB seasons.  Hoskins would naturally love to keep that production going in order to help the Phillies’ chances at returning to the World Series, but a big 2023 campaign would also help Hoskins as he enters free agency next winter.  The Phils already have a lot of long-term money on the books and might soon add another pricey deal if they reach an extension with Aaron Nola (another pending free agent), but it stands to reason that the club would also have some interest in locking Hoskins up to an extension.  That said, Boras Corporation clients like Hoskins usually end up testing the open market, and the Phillies might have some reservations about committing a long-term deal to a first base-only player.

Mets Were Finalists For Jameson Taillon

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  • The Mets and Phillies were the other finalists for Jameson Taillon, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that Philadelphia offered Taillon slightly more than the four years and $68MM he received from the Cubs.  Since Taijuan Walker signed with the Phils for four years and $72MM, it could be that the Phillies offered similar deals to both pitchers and either Walker accepted first, or perhaps Taillon opted for Chicago’s offer instead.  However, Taillon said that “I thought I was going to be a Met for a while,” indicating that New York was also strongly in the running.  The mutual interest between both Taillon and the Cubs may have been the deciding factor, as “the Cubs made a really strong first impression” on the first day of free agency, and the team “made it clear from day one I was a top priority.  If you can nerd-out and talk pitching with me, that really works for me.  They showed me a good plan.  It’s been exciting.”

NL Notes: Song, Lee, Hamels

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The Phillies and right-hander Noah Song are going to attempt something unprecedented, as he is now in camp after spending the past three years in the Navy. Both Song and Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke to reporters about the unusual situation today, including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer.

“The reality is it’s a gamble,” Dombroski said of taking Song from the Red Sox in November’s Rule 5 draft. “That’s what it is. I do not know when he picks up a ball and he starts throwing off the mound and puts something into it, once his arm is in good enough shape, I don’t know if he’s going throw 85 or 95. But we think it’s worth the risk.”

Dombrowski is certainly familiar with Song’s past pedigree as a prospect, since he was with the Sox when Song was drafted. Some evaluators considered the youngster to be a first-round talent at that time, but Boston was able to take him in the fourth because clubs were concerned about his commitment to the military. Dombrowski said that taking the gamble this winter was worth it, even though Song was still committed to the Navy at the time, since he could be a “top-of-the-rotation type pitcher” or a “star major leaguer,” the type of player that’s not usually available in the draft. “For us, the [Rule 5] draft price is $100,000, and if we return him [to the Red Sox], it’s $50,000, so that’s not much of a risk, financially,” Dombrowski said. “He’s not counted on our roster, so we haven’t even lost a player to put him on the 40-man roster. We thought it was worth the gamble with the high upside that he could bring.”

For now, the gamble has paid off, in the sense that Song has been transferred from active duty to the reserves. That’s allowed him to pursue baseball but it doesn’t seem he’s completely without limits, as Coffey relays that his transfer to reserve status means he’ll be putting in 12 years of part-time duty instead of six years of full-time. As part of that part-time duty, he’ll still have to serve one weekend per month and two full weeks per year. The logistics of how that will play out during the season remain to be seen.

Song last pitched professionally in High-A in 2019 and will now have to try to get back on track quickly. As a Rule 5 draftee, he has to stick on an active roster all season long or else be put on waivers and offered back to the Sox if he clears. “It felt rough,” Song said of his first bullpen since the news of his transfer. “It felt like I was trying to walk again. Trying to learn new things. But as far as expectations go, just trying to manage expectations, really. I don’t really know what my future or ceiling might be. But just trying to figure out what it is, what the new one is, I guess.”

Song’s journey has already been a unique one and his next stage will be one of the more fascinating spring stories to watch.

Some other notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • Nationals left-hander Evan Lee will be treated strictly as a reliever this spring, manager Dave Martinez tells Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Lee, 26 in June, came up primarily as a starter in his time in the minors, including a 2021 season where he pitched 77 innings in High-A with a 4.32 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 47.8% ground ball rate. He was added to the club’s 40-man in November of that year to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He was able to make his MLB debut in June of last year, putting up a 4.15 ERA over four appearances, but he then went to the injured list with a flexor strain. He made some minor league appearances on a rehab assignment as the season was winding down but didn’t return to the majors and was outrighted off the roster in November. The Nats only have four lefties on their 40-man, with Patrick Corbin and MacKenzie Gore slated to the in the rotation, while Matt Cronin and Jose Ferrer have yet to reach the majors. Perhaps there is a path for Lee to get back to the big leagues but he’ll be competing with non-roster invitees like Sean Doolittle and Anthony Banda.
  • The Padres brought veteran lefty Cole Hamels aboard on a minor league deal recently but he won’t factor into their starting pitching depth immediately. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the southpaw won’t pitch in games until extended Spring Training and will then head to the minors. If he progresses to game readiness and isn’t given a spot on the big league roster, he has monthly opportunities to opt-out of the contract. Hamels missed the past two seasons primarily due to shoulder injuries, in addition to other ailments. He also only made a single start in 2020. Prior to that, however, he was one of the best pitchers in the league for over a decade. “As an athlete, we know we can compete and we’ve done it for a long time,” he tells Acee. “It’s just a matter of (whether) your body will allow you to do it. I think that’s the part that we all battle as our careers kind of come towards those ending points. The body and will you be able to get out there and will you be able to get results? Will you be able to recover? And that’s where we’re at in this stage, and that’s what I’m trying to do.”

NL East Notes: Scherzer, Soroka, Song, Phillies

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Max Scherzer’s three-year deal with the Mets is now one-third of the way complete and will afford him the ability to opt out at the end of the upcoming season. Andy Martino of SNY asked Scherzer about that forthcoming choice and the pitcher was fairly noncommittal about it, complimenting the direction of the organization but also acknowledging the business aspect of things.

“You have to understand the context of why I negotiated that in, and the context of where we’re at now,” Scherzer said, before elaborating that he didn’t know what to expect from the club if Jacob deGrom triggered his own opt-out at the end of 2022. “It was, if Jake opts out, you didn’t know what was going to happen. You didn’t know where the Mets would be as an organization. A big draw for me to come to New York was to get the chance to pitch with him, and here he has an opt out in year one. If he did take it and go somewhere else, what is the organization going to do?” After a chuckle, he said, “I got an answer.” Of course, he now knows that owner Steve Cohen was willing to spend lavishly on free agents, ramping the club’s payroll to the top of the league in order to field a competitive team for 2023.

That response from Scherzer stands in contrast to that of deGrom, who was quite clear at this time last year that his plan was to trigger his opt-out. It’s been a similar story lately with Padres third baseman Manny Machado, who’s openly declared his intention to opt out of his deal this fall. The fact that Scherzer isn’t quite so emphatic is perhaps somewhat hopeful for Mets fans, but it could also come down to a business decision, something Scherzer acknowledged as well. “If it becomes a business situation, we will cross that bridge at a different time,” he added. “At the end of the year, that will get taken care of … I’m not thinking about it. Obviously, you go through six months of the baseball season, anything can change. So it’s not even worth it to comment on whether I’m going to use it or not.”

If Scherzer has another typical ace season, he would be facing an interesting decision from a business perspective. He will turn 39 years old in July and be deciding whether or not to leave $43.33MM on the table and become a free agent again. That’s a lot of money to turn down for a player that age, but his now-teammate Justin Verlander secured himself a two-year, $86.66MM guarantee going into his age-40 season, the same average annual value. With that in mind, Scherzer might actually leave more money on the table by not triggering his opt-out. If he were to decide to depart, the Mets would be losing two members of its current rotation, as Carlos Carrasco is in the final year of his contract.

Some other notes from around the National League East…

  • Braves right-hander Michael Soroka is dealing with a sore hamstring that will prevent him from taking the mound for about a week and from appearing in spring games for a few weeks. “It’s a kick in the groin,” Soroka said to David O’Brien of The Athletic about the setback. “Pretty frustrating, especially given the early offseason for me, just to be able to get ready for this spring training. Then coming down with that was not fun. But that’s how it goes, and we’ll be moving forward here pretty shortly.” Soroka has been significantly impeded by injuries in recent years, with his 2020 cut short after three starts due to a torn right Achilles. The recovery has been quite arduous, involving three surgeries as he missed the past two seasons entirely. This latest issue doesn’t seem to be huge, but it’s understandably frustrating that there’s yet another hurdle to clear. In 2019, Soroka made 29 starts with a 2.68 ERA over 174 2/3 innings. He figured to compete with Ian Anderson for the club’s fifth starter spot this year but he might have to play a bit of catch-up whenever he’s healthy. He does still have an option year remaining, should he need more time in the minors to get stretched out after this delay.
  • The Phillies informed reporters, including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that right-hander Noah Song has been discharged from the Navy and is expected to be in camp tomorrow. (EDIT: The club later clarified Song has not been discharged, but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves, which allows him to play baseball. Twitter link from Matt Gelb of The Athletic.) Song, 26 in May, was drafted by the Red Sox in 2019 but his baseball career was put on hold when the Department of Defense ordered the United States Naval Academy graduate to report to flight school. He was left unprotected in the most recent Rule 5 draft and was selected by the Phillies, whose president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was with the Red Sox at the time Song was first drafted. Some considered him a first-round talent back then, though he lingered until the fourth round due to concerns around that military commitment. This will now be an interesting and unusual experiment, as Song still hasn’t pitched professionally since a stint at Low-A in 2019. He was quite good at that time, posting a 1.06 ERA over seven starts but will now be jumping straight to the majors. As a Rule 5 draftee, he will have to stick on the active roster all season or put on waivers and then offered back to the Sox if he clears. The Phils could also pursue trades, though any acquiring team would face the same roster restrictions as the Phils themselves currently face. Song is currently on the military list and isn’t taking up a spot on the 40-man roster, with Gelb relaying that he will have to be added by Opening Day.
  • Sticking with the Phillies, they will be navigating an open designated hitter slot until Bryce Harper returns from Tommy John surgery. The most recent estimate on that timeline has Harper returning around the All-Star break in July, giving the club a span of over three months to navigate. It seems the plan is to not have any single player entrenched in the spot and spread those opportunities around. “At this point, I think it’s a rotation,” manager Rob Thomson tells Gelb. “Getting people off their feet. Giving them a half day, so to speak.” In order to shuffle different players through there, positional versatility will be key. It was previously reported that infielder Edmundo Sosa will be getting some work in center field in order to increase his chances of getting playing time. Thomson also highlighted Josh Harrison as someone who could also see extensive action, given his ability to play all multiple positions. He’s played every position except catcher in his career, though he’s spent more time at second and third base than anywhere else. Thomson also mentioned the bat of Darick Hall, who hit nine home runs in his first 42 major league games last year. He’s been almost exclusively a first baseman in his professional career but the club is considering getting him some outfield work to help his bat into the lineup. “If he swings the bat the way he did last year,” Thomson said, “it’s going to be tough to keep him off the club.”

NL East Notes: Wright, Meneses, Rainey, Sosa

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Even if Kyle Wright is slightly behind in his throwing schedule, Atlanta is hoping he won’t have to start the regular season on the injured list, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. The right-hander produced comfortably his best season to date last year, breaking out after owning a combined 6.56 ERA. over the previous four seasons to go 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA over 180 1/3 innings.

The 27-year-old’s off-season prep was halted for three weeks in January following a cortisone injection in his right shoulder. That’s put him behind schedule as spring training begins, and Wright’s unlikely to make any starts for Atlanta over the first few weeks of Grapefruit League action in Florida. As Bowman reports, the hope is he’ll be able to increase his pitch count during the back half of spring training to a point where he can throw around 75 pitches in his regular season debut. That would probably mean he’d miss Atlanta’s opening series in Washington, instead targeting the trip to St Louis as a possible season debut.

Here’s some more notes from around the National League East:

  • The Nationals intend to use 2022 breakout star Joey Meneses in a utility role this season. Manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post) that Meneses would play “a lot of a little bit of everywhere.” That’ll mean he sees time at first base, left field and DH on the rebuilding Nats. As a 30-year-old rookie, Meneses slashed .324/.367/.563 with 13 home runs across 240 plate appearances last season, a small bright spot in a disappointing campaign for Washington. He was certainly helped by a .371 BABIP, but nonetheless it was an impressive debut stint in the big leagues for a player who toiled away for 11 years for reaching the bigs.
  • Sticking with the Nats for now, and reliever Tanner Rainey is targeting a return at the 12-month mark since his Tommy John surgery. As Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports, Rainey is in the third week of his throwing program, and a return a year after surgery would have him slated to be back on the mound in the first week of August. Of course, there’s a lot that can happen between now and then, and with the Nats in the midst of a rebuild they’d certainly be unlikely to rush him back, but it’s an encouraging sign for the 30-year-old, who worked to a 3.30 ERA over 30 innings last season before going down.
  • Phillies infielder Edmundo Sosa is working on learning center field, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The plan is for the Phillies to get Sosa some center field reps during spring training in the hope he’ll be in a position for that to be an option during the regular season. Sosa has appeared in all of 3 1/3 innings in the outfield in his career, but the bulk of his appearances for the Cardinals and Phillies have come in the middle infield spots. After slashing .227/.275/.369 with two home runs, Sosa projects as an infield option on the bench in 2023, with Trea Turner and Bryson Stott manning the positions full time. Veteran Josh Harrison is also projected as a bench option that can cover the infield positions, so adding center field to Sosa’s repertoire would certainly help to deepen the bench options available to manager Rob Thomson.

Read The Transcript Of Our Live Chat Hosted By Former MLB Scout Tim Kissner

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Today’s chat guest, Tim Kissner, has 22 years of experience as an MLB scout.

Tim was born in Homer, Alaska, and grew up in Juneau.  He played baseball at Mendocino Community College and Oregon State and has a masters degree from Eastern Oregon State College.

Kissner began his MLB career as a part-time scout with the Phillies in 1999.  After a few years with the Indians, Kissner moved back to the Phillies, eventually serving as the team’s Pacific Rim coordinator.  Kissner spent time as the Cubs’ West Coast crosschecker, then joined the Mariners as director of international scouting.  Kissner’s next step was as a special assignment scout with the Mets.  He finished his MLB career back with the Phillies.

In terms of amateur scouting, Kissner signed players such as Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Kendrick, Vance Worley, Scott Mathieson, Andrew Carpenter, Anthony Gose, and Justin De Fratus.  Tim’s Latin American signings include big leaguers Julio Rodriguez, Freddy Peralta, Luis Rengifo, Enyel De Los Santos, and Guillermo Heredia, as well as top prospect Noelvi Marte.  By Tim’s count, the Mariners traded more than 20 of the players he signed there.

Deciding it was time for something new after a career spent scouting all around the world, Tim returned home to become a police officer in Juneau about a year ago.  Tim chatted today with MLBTR readers for nearly two hours, sharing Julio Rodriguez stories, many aspects of the scouting profession, and much more.  Click here to read the transcript.

Phillies, Aaron Nola Have Recently Exchanged Extension Offers

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The Phillies and representatives for ace Aaron Nola have discussed a possible contract extension this spring, reports Matt Gelb of the Athletic. The numbers under consideration are unclear. Gelb adds the sides have exchanged formal proposals and suggests there’s optimism about the chances of getting a deal done at some point.

As things stand, the former seventh overall pick is on track to be one of the top free agents on next winter’s market. Rival clubs would surely love an opportunity to make a run at the All-Star. Nola expressed a desire to work something out with Philadelphia instead, though he noted he’s leaving most of the details to his agents at Paragon Sports International.

“My reps are handling it. I don’t really know, honestly,” Nola said about the status of talks (via Gelb). “I love it here. I think everybody loves it here.” Nola suggested his camp would table discussions until season’s end if no deal were in place by Opening Day. “I want to focus on the season, definitely. We’d have to reopen it after the season, for sure. But during the season, I want to stay focused on that: playing good ball, trying to win a championship.”

Nola is coming off another excellent year, one that landed him a fourth place finish in NL Cy Young balloting. It was the third top ten placement of his career and a fairly typical showing by his standards. Nola made all 32 starts and threw 205 innings. He posted a 3.25 ERA with an excellent 29.1% strikeout percentage and a 3.6% walk rate that was among the league’s lowest. That marked the third consecutive season in which he fanned upwards of 29% of batters faced while generating swinging strikes on at least 12% of his pitches.

In addition to his excellent rate performance, Nola has arguably been the sport’s predominant workhorse over the past few seasons. He’s respectively made 33, 34, 32 and 32 starts in each of the last four 162-game seasons and took the ball all 12 times during the shortened schedule. Since the start of 2018, Nola leads the majors with both 143 starts and 871 2/3 innings. He’s one of just five hurlers to surpass the 800-inning mark in that time. Aside from a brief stay on the COVID-19 list, he hasn’t missed any time since a 2016 elbow strain.

Nola and Julio Urías join two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani as the top starting pitchers on track for free agency. If he did hit the open market, it’d be the first trip of his career. Nola has spent his entire career with Philadelphia, signing a $45MM extension over the 2019-20 offseason. That deal came with a $16MM club option for the 2023 campaign, one the Phils made the obvious decision to exercise last fall.

There’s no question Nola is in line for a much more significant payday this time around — either via another extension or free agent deal. He turns 30 in June, so he’s still in position for a long-term pact despite his first extension pushing back his initial path to free agency by two years. Nola’s combination of performance track record, age and durability could make him one of the top free agent pitchers of the last couple seasons.

Jacob deGrom landed the highest guarantee of any free pitcher the past few years, securing $185MM over five seasons from the Rangers. deGrom is the best pitcher in the sport on a rate basis but headed into his age-35 campaign with 2021-22 injury issues. The more apt comparison point for Nola is Carlos Rodón, who secured six years and $162MM from the Yankees this winter.

Rodón is a few months younger now than Nola will be next offseason but the age gap is fairly minor. The Yankee southpaw has been more overpowering over the past two seasons, striking out almost 34% of opponents with a 2.67 ERA. Rodón throws harder and is arguably the more dominant pitcher on a per-inning basis while Nola has a significant edge from a durability perspective. Nola has topped 200 innings in his career on three separate occasions. Rodón, who missed extended chunks of action from 2018-20 thanks to elbow and shoulder surgeries, has never topped the 178 frames he threw last year.

There’s an argument for Nola’s camp to beat the Rodón deal, perhaps by a decent margin. The Phillies righty compares reasonably well to Stephen Strasburg over the three seasons prior to his seven-year, $245MM megadeal with the Nationals from the 2019-20 offseason. Over the last three seasons, Nola has thrown 457 innings with a 3.80 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk percentage. In the three years leading up to his contract, Strasburg had tossed 514 1/3 innings (an edge attributable to the shortened 2020 schedule) of 3.15 ERA ball with a 29.3% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk percentage.

Strasburg secured his contract — the second-largest pitcher deal in MLB history — on the heels of a stellar playoff run culminating in a championship and World Series MVP award. Nola doesn’t have that kind of momentum leading up to extension discussions, and it’s hard to envision the Phillies matching the Strasburg deal while Nola is a year away from the open market. Still, it serves as an example of the kind of heights a pitcher of his caliber can reach in free agency if he hits the market coming off a peak platform season.

The Phillies haven’t been averse to long-term commitments. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner each reached or topped the $300MM mark. The Phils went into nine figures to land Zack Wheeler and Nick Castellanos and to retain J.T. Realmuto. Wheeler will make $23.5MM in 2024, the final season of his five-year contract. Taijuan Walker is locked into the rotation for the next four years on this winter’s $72MM deal. Ranger Suárez is controllable via arbitration through 2025, while top prospects Andrew Painter and Mick Abel are viewed as long-term rotation building blocks.

There’s a fair bit of talent on the starting staff. That seems unlikely to deter the Phils from making a serious run at retaining Nola, however, considering how impactful he’s been over the past half-decade. Whether they can reach an agreement within the next six weeks is going to be a key storyline in camp.

Phillies Extend Jose Alvarado

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The Phillies have signed lefty reliever Jose Alvarado to a three year contract, per a team announcement. The deal keeps Alvarado in Philadelphia through at least the 2025 season, and includes a club option for 2026. Alvarado is represented by OL Baseball Group.

According to Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase, Alvarado will earn $9MM in each of the 2024 and 2025 seasons, with a $50K signing bonus. The 2026 club option is for $9MM, with a $500k buyout. Alvarado and the club already agreed to a $3.45MM salary for 2023 to avoid arbitration, effectively making this three-year, $22MM contract a two-year, $18.55MM extension. Still, it’s a three-year contract for luxury tax purposes, meaning the Phillies will be taxed on a $7.33MM AAV for 2023, as opposed to the previous $3.45MM figure. On the other hand, this also lowers the tax figure for 2024 and 2025 seasons compared to the $9.275MM figure it would have been if structured as a two year deal.

Alvarado, 28 in May, is coming off a phenomenal 2022 season that saw him post a 3.18 ERA across 51 innings of work. While that figure is good for a solidly above-average ERA+ of 129, digging a little deeper reveals that Alvarado posted a dazzling 1.92 FIP last season, the fourth best in baseball, minimum 50 innings pitched. The discrepancy between Alvarado’s run prevention and his underlying metrics likely comes from an inflated .340 BABIP that stands well above his career .302 mark. The rare lefty who can touch triple digits with his fastball, Alvarado’s success came in large part from a 37.9% strikeout rate, which stood as 7th in baseball among those with at least 50 IP.

Alvarado’s success came from more than just strikeouts, however. As a sinkerballer, Alvarado also managed to keep the ball on the ground at and impressive 56.1% clip. Only Jhoan Duran of the Twins had a higher groundball rate while striking out at least 30% of batters faced, while no pitcher who struck out batters at a higher clip than Alvarado induced grounders at a rate of even 50%. That mix of strikeouts and groundballs is a strong recipe for success, and by signing Alvarado long term, the Phillies are indicating confidence in his ability to continue his success past his 30th birthday.

Early in the offseason, the top end of the free agent market exploded, with Robert Suarez and Rafael Montero signing early for surprising guarantees in re-signing with their previous clubs. Suarez secured $46MM from the Padres, while Montero received $34.5MM from the Astros. Taylor Rogers, meanwhile, landed a $33MM guarantee in San Francisco. Those figures all outstrip Alvarado’s guarantee by a considerable amount, but the $18.55MM in new money surpasses the guarantees of free agent lefties who signed later this offseason such as Matt Strahm ($15MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), and Matt Moore, ($7.55MM). Given how Alvarado’s deal stacks up well against fellow relievers in his service bracket like Ryan Pressly, Huston Street, and Daniel Bard, taking this deal is an understandable decision for him. While there’s risk he continues to dominate as he did in 2022, the Phillies are risking that his struggles with injuries and command resurface from earlier in his career and limit his abilities going forward.

This is the second extension at the back of the Phillies’ bullpen in as many days, as the club agreed to a deal Seranthony Dominguez yesterday that could keep Dominguez in Philadelphia through the 2025 season. With these deals, the Phillies have locked up a pair of exciting, high-octane arms who can be penciled in for late inning duties alongside Strahm and Gregory Soto for the next few seasons. Having also also added Craig Kimbrel to their late inning mix for the 2023 season last month, the Phillies appear to have turned a bullpen that has long been considered an area of weakness for the club into a strength as they attempt to return to the World Series after last year’s surprise postseason run.

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