Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks
Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.
While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.
The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.
[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]
If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.
That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.
That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.
Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.
Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.
Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.
The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.
San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.
Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.
Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.
Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.
As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.
Phillies, Jose Ruiz Agree To Minor League Deal
The Phillies and right-handed reliever Jose Ruiz have agreed to a minor league contract, reports Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors. He’ll be invited to major league spring training this year and compete for a spot on the roster. Ruiz is repped by the OL Baseball Group.
Ruiz, 29, split the 2023 season between the White Sox — for whom he pitched from 2018-23 — and the D-backs, who acquired him for cash in April after Chicago designated the hard-throwing righty for assignment. He was rocked during the season’s first week in Chicago, yielding nine runs in just 3 2/3 innings, but Ruiz pitched decently with Arizona for much of the season.
In 40 2/3 frames with the eventual NL champions, Ruiz logged a 4.43 ERA with a 19.8% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 42.4% ground-ball rate. He averaged 96.6 mph on his heater along the way and notched a healthy 12.5% swinging-strike rate against a roughly average 31.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate. He also managed hard contact fairly well in Arizona, with better-than-average marks in exit velocity (88.5 mph) and hard-hit rate (34.4%).
Command was an issue for Ruiz throughout the year, as it has been more often than not in his career. While the 9.3% walk rate he posted with the Snakes was better than his ugly 10.9% career mark, it’s also still higher than the league-wide 8.6%. Beyond that, Ruiz’s command within the zone was lacking, which contributed to the hefty 1.55 home runs he allowed for every nine innings pitched this season.
The D-backs could’ve retained Ruiz through arbitration by adding him back to the 40-man roster, but they instead opted to let him become a free agent, which led the Phillies to pick him up on what amounts to a no-risk commitment. If he’s able to round back into form, he could be controlled for as many as three more seasons. Ruiz’s 2022-23 campaigns don’t stand out, but as recently as 2021 he racked up 65 innings of 3.05 ERA ball over 59 appearances with the ChiSox, striking out 23.2% of his opponents against a more palatable 9.2% walk rate.
Ruiz is out of minor league options, so if the Phillies do add him to the roster at some point, they won’t be able to send him down without first passing him through outright waivers.
Details On The Dodgers’ And Braves’ Pursuits Of Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola‘s new deal with the Phillies is the winter’s biggest free agent headline to date, as Nola returned to Philadelphia for seven years and $172MM. Reports filtered in that the Braves also had significant interest in Nola, and that the right-hander turned down larger offers in order to remain with his longtime team, and the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber shed some light on those other suitors in a piece from earlier this week.
The Dodgers were another major bidder, Lauber writes, with the specific phrasing that Los Angeles “put a finger on the scale at $165MM.” It isn’t exactly clear from this wording whether or not the Dodgers perhaps just floated this figure or if they made a formal offer to Nola’s representatives, yet it is fair to assume the latter is true given the seemingly quick timeline of events, considering that the Phillies and Braves were both bidding hard and Nola wanted to decide sooner rather than later about his future.
As for other teams, Atlanta made a starting offer of $162MM over six years, and then made a final offer worth presumably more. Beyond the Braves and Dodgers, the Phillies thought more team were also involved in the Nola sweepstakes, “with at least one other club offering more” than Philadelphia’s $172MM.
Naturally it isn’t at all surprising that Nola drew such high-dollar interest, given his status as one of the top free agents available in this offseason’s market. MLBTR ranked Nola fifth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract. He ended up getting more overall money than our projection, if less of an average annual value stretched out over a seventh year of a contract, yet the Phillies’ ability to just get close to comparable offers from other teams was enough to seal the deal. “Nola strongly preferred staying with the Phillies, and his agent Joe Longo let it be known that $172 million would get it done,” Lauber writes.
Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos typically likes to make most of his bigger moves earlier in the offseason, and that trend has continued. The bullpen has been a major early focus, as Reynaldo Lopez was just signed to a three-year deal worth at least $30MM in guaranteed money, and Atlanta retained Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson before free agency officially opened. The Braves were also very aggressive in cutting down their list of arbitration-eligible players, with a series of trades, releases, and non-tenders that ultimately shaved a decent chunk of money off the payroll.
The exact size of that 2024 payroll and what Anthopoulos has to work with isn’t yet known, leading to quite a bit of speculation about what exactly the Braves are planning. Obviously landing Nola would have taken up a big portion (if not all) of whatever payroll space Atlanta has left, and the Braves are already on pace to top their team-record $203MM payroll from last year. The Braves are also set to surpass the luxury tax threshold for the second consecutive year, which adds another interesting wrinkle — signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like Nola would’ve cost the Braves two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus money as compensation.
Under Anthopoulos, the Braves have usually made measured strikes in the free agent market. Most of Anthopoulos’ biggest moves have been trades, with his free agent signings usually limited to veterans on one-year or two-year deals (if at a high average annual value). Marcell Ozuna‘s four-year, $65MM deal from the 2020-21 is far and away the biggest contract Anthopoulos has given to a free agent, and Nola’s contact would’ve drastically exceeded Ozuna’s number.
While the Dodgers are no stranger to big-money deals, it is worth noting that Nola at a $165MM price tag would’ve also represented the biggest free agent contract of Andrew Friedman’s tenure running the L.A. front office. Freddie Freeman‘s six-year, $162MM pact from the 2021-22 offseason is the current benchmark, and the fact that Los Angeles was willing to spend so much on Nola is an early sign of how aggressive the team plans to be this winter.
Signing the durable Nola would’ve been a huge help to a Dodgers rotation that is lacking in experience, as the team is expected to add two or three pitchers to the group via free agency and trades. This is alongside the Dodgers’ other big pursuit of the winter, as Los Angeles is seen as one of the favorites — if perhaps the favorite — to sign Shohei Ohtani to what will almost surely be the biggest guaranteed contract in baseball history. The Dodgers may be way under the luxury tax threshold for now, but with Ohtani’s situation, severe pitching needs, and some other roster holes to be addressed, L.A. doesn’t appear to have any reservations over surpassing the tax for the fourth straight year.
One team absent from Nola’s market was Boston, as the Red Sox “weren’t meaningfully involved in bidding,” according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. This tracks with reports from mid-November suggesting that while the Sox were interested in a top-tier starting pitching addition, Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were the team’s preferred options ahead of Nola and Blake Snell.
MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Phillies re-sign Aaron Nola (0:50)
- The Braves sign Reynaldo López (7:20)
- The Cardinals sign Lance Lynn (10:30)
- Interesting non-tenders, including Brandon Woodruff… (12:10)
- Spencer Turnbull… (14:10)
- ..and Rowdy Tellez (17:10)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
- Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
- Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
- Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
- Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here
Willie Hernandez Passes Away
Three-time All-Star and 1984 World Series champion Willie Hernandez has passed away at the age of 69 after a yearslong battle with a heart condition, per a report from La Primera Hora — a newspaper in Hernandez’s native Puerto Rico. The former American League MVP and Cy Young winner (both in a standout ’84 campaign) had been dealing with heart troubles for around 15 years, his wife tells La Primera Hora. Hernandez himself told Matt Schoh of the Detroit News back in 2019, after throwing out the first pitch during the Tigers’ season opener, that he nearly died in 2007 while having a pacemaker installed in his heart.
Hernandez is one of just 10 pitchers to ever capture both a Cy Young Award and an MVP in the same season — and one of just three relievers to accomplish that feat (joining Hall of Famers Rollie Fingers and Dennis Eckersley). The lefty’s 1984 campaign was indeed sensational; Hernandez led the Majors in both appearances (80) and games finished (68) while piling up a hefty 140 1/3 innings of relief. He saved 32 games that season and pitched to a pristine 1.92 ERA. He’d go on to add another 9 1/3 innings of 1.93 ERA ball in the postseason, including a pair of saves during a World Series that the Tigers won over the Padres.
That ’84 season kicked off a run of three consecutive All-Star appearances for Hernandez and was just one of many brilliant seasons over the life of a 13-year big league career. Hernandez made his MLB debut with the Cubs as a 22-year-old back in 1977, pitching to a terrific 3.03 ERA in 110 innings. He’d ultimately spend six-plus season in a Cubs uniform, pitching to a collective 3.81 ERA in that time.
Chicago traded Hernandez to the Phillies in May of 1983, and Hernandez delivered 95 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball for the Phils en route to a World Series appearance. Philadelphia fell short to the Orioles in the ’83 Fall Classic, but that wasn’t due to any fault of Hernandez, who fired four shutout frames with four strikeouts during the series.
The Phillies traded Hernandez to the Tigers the following spring, and he went on to spend six seasons in Detroit, where he worked to a collective 2.98 ERA thanks in large part to his often unhittable screwball. His time with the Tigers included the vast majority of his career highlights: all three All-Star appearances, the Cy Young and MVP nods, and of course, the 1984 World Series championship. Elbow troubles in his age-34 season ultimately put an end to Hernandez’s pitching career.
All in all, Hernandez appeared in 744 Major League games, pitching to a lifetime 3.38 ERA with a 70-63 record, 147 saves and 788 strikeouts in 1044 2/3 innings. His postseason work tacks on another 13 2/3 frames of 1.32 ERA ball and three more saves. We at MLBTR express our condolences to Hernandez’s family, friends, former teammates and fans.
The Opener: Nola, Yamamoto, Hall Of Fame Ballot
As another week of the offseason kicks off, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball:
1. Phillies to hold press conference for Aaron Nola
The Phillies will host a press conference this afternoon at 12:30 PM CT to officially announce the re-signing of All-Star right-hander Aaron Nola. On Sunday, the two sides came to terms on a seven-year, $172MM contract to keep the longest-tenured Phillie in red pinstripes through his age-37 campaign. The deal marks the first nine-figure transaction of the offseason, and Nola becomes the first of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents to come off the board.
While his $24.57MM average annual salary is merely a few hundred thousand dollars lower than the $25MM figure we predicted at MLBTR, his total guaranteed salary is higher. What’s more, Nola reportedly took a hometown discount (per Jon Heyman of the New York Post), turning down even higher offers from other teams to stay with the club that drafted him seventh overall in 2014. Thus, it will be interesting to see how his deal influences the market for other starting pitchers in a similar tier, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto to be posted this week
Speaking of Yamamoto, the Orix Buffaloes are expected to post the righty sometime this week, kicking off the 45-day window MLB clubs will have to negotiate with the 25-year-old superstar. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests the three-time NPB Triple Crown winner will be posted as early as today, and the 45-day countdown will officially begin on Tuesday.
Yamamoto is widely considered the best arm available in free agency, and it would have been reasonable for a top pitcher like Nola to wait for him to set the market at some point in the next six weeks. However, it turns out Nola was the first domino to fall, so perhaps we’ll see the other clubs that were in the mix for his services pivot to Yamamoto instead.
3. Hall of Fame ballot to be revealed
The 2024 BBWAA ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be unveiled today. Returning names will include Todd Helton (6th year on the ballot), Billy Wagner (9th), Andruw Jones (7th), Gary Sheffield (10th and final), Alex Rodriguez (3rd), Manny Ramirez (8th), Omar Vizquel (7th), Andy Pettitte (6th), and Bobby Abreu (5th). Helton and Wagner each earned more than two-thirds of the vote on the previous ballot, and each has a solid chance to earn the necessary 75% of the vote this time around. Meanwhile, Sheffield will hope to jump from 55% to 75% in his final year on the ballot.
Newcomers to the ballot will include Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, and José Bautista. Beltré is a likely Hall of Famer and has a chance to enter on his first ballot. Mauer and Utley aren’t as likely to reach the threshold for enshrinement right away, but they will hope to begin drumming up support for an eventual election. Finally, Wright, Colon, Holliday, and Bautista are long shots to enter the Hall, but with their various accolades and career accomplishments, they should earn enough support to remain on the ballot.
Phillies Re-Sign Aaron Nola
One of the offseason’s top free agents is staying put, as the Phillies announced that Aaron Nola has been re-signed to a seven-year deal. Nola will earn $172MM over the course of the contract, which contains no opt-out clauses or club options. Nola is represented by Paragon Sports.
Nola, 30, was selected seventh overall by the Phillies in the 2014 draft. The right-hander was a quick riser to the big leagues, making his MLB debut shortly after the All-Star break in 2015 at the age of 22. His rookie season saw him post a respectable 3.59 ERA (107 ERA+) and 4.04 FIP across 13 starts in the majors. It was a preview of the reliable, back-of-the-rotation production Nola would provide the Phillies with throughout his early twenties: he posted a 3.94 ERA (106 ERA+) across the first three seasons of his big league career, though a 3.38 FIP in that time suggested there was more potential yet to come for the young righty.
That potential was unleashed during the 2018 season. Nola posted a sterling 2.37 ERA while racking up 224 strikeouts across 212 1/3 innings of work. The performance not only earned Nola his first career All-Star appearance and a third-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting that year, but the Phillies also inked him to a new contract. The two sides agreed to a four-year extension with a club option for the 2023 season shortly before Opening Day 2019.
While Nola never quite replicated that incredible 2018 campaign over the life of his extension, he’s remained one of the most durable starters in the league over the past half-decade. Since the start of the 2018 season, only Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings than Nola’s 1065 1/3 figure. While Nola’s ERA of 3.65 is dragged down by difficult 2021 and 2023 seasons that saw him post results closer to that of a league-average starter than an ace, his 3.38 FIP over the past six seasons is a top-ten figure among arms with at least 700 innings of work across that timeframe. That leaves him with a whopping 25.5 fWAR accumulated over the past six seasons, an excellent figure topped only by Cole, Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation Zack Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom.
Impressive as those numbers are, Nola’s new deal with the Phillies is a hefty one for a pitcher coming off a 4.46 ERA (96 ERA+) platform season. Though Nola’s struggles in 2023 could fairly be attributed, at least in part, to a deflated 66.4% strand rate and an elevated 15.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs, he’ll continue to call the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park home while pitching in front of a Phillies defense that ranked below average by measure of Outs Above Average last season and bottom-five per Defensive Runs Saved. While a full-time shift to DH for Kyle Schwarber and additional reps for Bryce Harper at his new position of first base should help the Phillies out in the field next season, the defensive holes created by Nick Castellanos in right field and Trea Turner at shortstop seem unlikely to be plugged any time soon.
Previous reporting indicated the Phillies were hesitant to give Nola a seven-year contract, but Philadelphia continued a trend that became more common — stretching deals for top free agents in terms of years to lower the contract’s AAV. It’s a tactic used with several positional free agents last offseason, including Turner’s own 11-year pact with the Phillies. While the deal between Nola and the Phillies will keep the right-hander on the payroll through the 2030 season, the club will pay Nola just $24.57MM yearly for luxury tax purposes.
That AAV comes in far below not only that of previous top-tier free agent starters like David Price ($31MM AAV), but also more recent arms like Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon ($27MM AAV). Nola’s annual figure is much more closely in line with that of previous free agent arms like Wheeler, Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin, none of whom entered free agency with a track record of success comparable to Nola’s. The lowered AAV could help the Phillies if they look to avoid surpassing higher levels of the luxury tax. In 2024, Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll just over $252MM for luxury tax purposes, putting them around $5MM below the second luxury tax threshold of $257MM. Of course, staying under that figure would require the Phillies to either trim payroll elsewhere on the roster or make virtually no additional moves this offseason, though Nola’s lower AAV could still come into play for luxury tax purposes in future seasons.
Nola clocked in at number five on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, where we projected the righty for a six-year, $150MM contract. While that projection ended up one year and $22MM light, it seems that Nola could have surpassed the deal he took with the Phillies had he decided to sign elsewhere as the New York Post’s Heyman reports that Nola took a lesser deal to remain in Philadelphia. It’s unclear which team or teams topped Philly’s offer, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan notes that the Braves were considered a “real threat” to land Nola while Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Tom Ackerman of KMOX this morning that he had been engaged with Nola’s agents during his free agency but that Nola had a “really strong desire” to return to the Phillies.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made fairly clear that the Phillies only plan on adding one arm to their rotation this offseason, and with Nola back on board it seems the club’s rotation is set headed into 2024. While it’s certainly feasible that the heavy lifting for the Phillies could already be done for the offseason, there are still holes on the roster the club could look to address. The club could look to add a bat to their left field mix rather than rely on Johan Rojas as an everyday player after a solid 59-game stint in the majors this year, while the club’s late-inning mix could use a right-handed arm to pair with Jose Alvarado after veteran closer Craig Kimbrel departed for free agency.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report that the agreement was in place, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the $172MM figure. Nightengale and Jon Heyman of the New York Post respectively added the details about the no-trade clause and the lack of club options or opt-outs.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Phillies Still Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Additional Depth Pitching
Even after officially reuniting with Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM deal earlier today, the Phillies are still in the hunt for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. A source tells Coffey that the Phils will be “pretty aggressive” in going after the Japanese right-hander, “but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.”
The Athletic’s Matt Gelb concurs, hearing that the Phillies “will not be a top bidder on Yamamoto after finalizing the Nola deal.” Given how Yamamoto has gotten so much interest from multiple clubs and how MLBTR projects a nine-year, $225MM price tag for the righty’s first Major League contract, having any financial limits in place might alone halt Philadelphia’s chances. Gelb is also pessimistic about the Phillies’ chances due to the team’s relative lack of a history with Japanese players — in particular, no Japanese pitcher has ever appeared on Philadelphia’s MLB roster.
That said, the special circumstances of Yamamoto’s arrival in North American baseball has kept the Phillies interested on some level, and it could be that the club ultimately decides to make the splash on a special talent. Yamamoto is only 25 years old, and thus could be a rotation fixture for the better part of a decade if he pitches anything like he has over seven dominant seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball. Given how owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski haven’t shown much compunction about spending to upgrade the Phillies’ roster, Philadelphia probably can’t truly be ruled out until Yamamoto has officially put pen to paper with another team.
Yamamoto is already an exception to the rest of the Phillies’ pitching plans for the offseason. Coffey writes that the team is still aiming to add at least one more rotation-caliber piece, and potentially two in the form of Yamamoto and a swingman or spot starter type that could be optioned back and forth from Triple-A. Dylan Covey and Matt Strahm are already on the roster in such roles, though Covey is out of minor league options.
This runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s statement earlier this week that the Phillies were only looking for one more starter, though Coffey’s framing of the other potential additions as depth pieces wouldn’t detract from the projected starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez. If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, the Phillies will probably target only depth starters or multi-inning relievers going forward, as Coffey says “it’s unlikely” the team would pivot to another top-tier hurler.
In term of larger pitching expenditures, the Phillies might be saving some money for Wheeler, as Gelb writes that the team plans to discuss an extension at some point this offseason, if possibly closer to Spring Training. 2024 is the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact Wheeler signed during the 2019-20 offseason, and though Wheeler turns 34 in May, it’s easy to see why the Phillies are interested in a longer relationship. The righty has been excellent over his four years in Philadelphia, posting a 3.06 ERA over 629 1/3 innings and twice meriting top-six finishes in NL Cy Young voting.
Phillies Reportedly “Moving Closer” To Re-Signing Aaron Nola
10:36AM: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Phillies and Aaron Nola are “moving closer” on a reunion. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki also confirmed Nightengale’s report that talks between the sides have heated up in recent days.
9:55AM: The Phillies and right-hander Aaron Nola have both made clear a desire to see the righty ace return to Philadelphia on a long-term deal this offseason, dating back to before Nola was even officially a free agent. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicated this morning that there’s reason for optimism regarding a deal coming together between the two sides, noting that contract talks between the sides have “gained significant momentum” in recent days.
That, of course, doesn’t mean that an agreement between the two sides is imminent or even necessarily close, but it’s a notable development nonetheless. After all, it was just last week that reporting from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicated the sides were “not at all close” to a new deal while The Athletic’s Jayson Stark suggested that Phillies may not “go all out” to retain Nola, adding that interest from rival clubs made a seventh year on Nola’s contract possible. That’s a level the Phillies reportedly weren’t willing to go to in extension talks last spring, though it’s possible that the club has changed its tune since then.
Nightengale’s report goes on to suggest that Nola’s camp is seeking a seven-year, $210MM deal while the Phillies have countered with a six-year, $150MM offer at this point. Those price points are substantially closer than the four-to-five year pact that the Phillies reportedly offered Nola last offseason and the eight-year counter from Nola’s camp. That apparent progress in reaching a deal appears all the more encouraging with Nightengale suggesting that the sides are “getting close to finding a middle ground” between the two figures.
With one year and $60MM separating the two offers, there’s plenty of room for the sides to meet somewhere in the middle. Of note, the Phillies’ reported offer to Nola comes in just $12MM under the total guarantee left-hander Carlos Rodon secured from the Yankees last offseason over the same term, meaning virtually any movement from Philadelphia would allow Nola to secure a guarantee above that of Rodon. Speculatively speaking, the Phillies could offer Nola a higher AAV than Rodon over the same term if they’re unwilling to offer a seven-year deal to Nola, who will celebrate his 31st birthday next summer. Such a deal could fall in the $168MM to $180MM range in terms of total guarantee.
A seven-year pact would see Nola turn 37 in the final year of the deal. That’s an age the Phillies have shown a willingness to sign position players through: superstar first baseman Bryce Harper and marquee shortstop Trea Turner are signed through their age-38 and -40 seasons, respectively. That being said, the club hasn’t shown the same appetite for deals that would take pitchers into their late thirties. Zack Wheeler signed with the club on a five-year deal to become Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation, though that deal will see him hit the open market next offseason following his age-34 campaign. That’s the same age former Phillies lefty Cole Hamels was signed through when he extended with the club back in 2012.
Even a six-year pact would be breaking new ground for the Phillies; while the club signed Hall of Famer Roy Halladay through his age-36 season, that deal was for just three years and $60MM. That’s a far cry from the nine-figure deal Nola figures to land. What’s more, any movement from the Phillies’ current price point of six years and $150MM would take Nola’s contract above what MLBTR projected for the right-hander in our annual Top 50 free agents list.
Despite all of this, it’s easy to see why the Phillies would make such a plunge to retain Nola’s services. Nola’s spent nine years with the club serving as a homegrown ace since his debut with the club back in 2015. In that time, he’s compiled a career 3.72 ERA (113 ERA+) and 3.38 FIP with a 27.2% strikeout rate. Since his breakout 2018 campaign where he earned his first career All Star appearance and finished third in NL Cy Young award voting, Nola has been even more impressive with a 3.65 ERA and 28% strikeout rate. On top of that quality production, Nola is among the most durable pitchers in the entire sport: he’s thrown more than 180 innings and made at least 32 starts in each of the last five 162-game seasons. Only Yankees ace Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings since the start of the 2018 campaign, while only Cole, Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom have accumulated more fWAR than Nola’s 25.5 figure since then.
Should Nola and the Phillies ultimately come together on a new contract, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has previously indicated that the club’s starting rotation will be set for the 2024 campaign, likely taking Philadelphia out of the rotation market for the rest of the offseason. If a deal between the sides doesn’t get done, however, the club figures to be aggressive in looking to replace Nola with NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the club’s reported hypothetical targets. Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray are among the other potential top-of-the-rotation arms to be had on the free agent market, though Stark reports the club is “lukewarm” on Snell. The trade market could hold other alternatives to Nola for the Phils, such as Brewers ace Corbin Burnes or White Sox righty Dylan Cease.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/17/23
Tonight marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players who are eligible for arbitration. This evening should also see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.
These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.
Under the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.
All salary projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the night as deals are reported.
Latest Moves
- The Orioles agreed to deals with outfielders Sam Hilliard and Ryan McKenna, reliever Keegan Akin and shortstop Jorge Mateo, as announced by the team. Mateo will make $2.7MM, as first reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). Jon Heyman of the New York Post has terms (on X) for Akin and Hilliard: $825K for the former, $800K for the latter.
- Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has a deal for $7.9MM, Heyman reports. That’s a little above his $7.3MM projection. Yastrzemski has one additional arbitration year remaining.
- Reliever Yency Almonte and the Dodgers have agreed to a $1.9MM salary, per Heyman. That matches his projection.
- Lefty reliever Ryan Borucki agreed to a contract with the Pirates, the team announced. Feinsand reports it as a $1.6MM deal. He was projected at $1.3MM.
- The Rockies have a deal with lefty reliever Jalen Beeks, Heyman reports. He’ll make $1.675MM. Recently claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay, Beeks was projected at $1.8MM.
- The Cubs announced a deal with third baseman Patrick Wisdom. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the power-hitting infielder will make $2.725MM. That’s narrowly above a $2.6MM projection.
- Outfielder DJ Stewart agreed to a deal with the Mets, per a club announcement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports it’ll be for $1.38MM. Stewart had been projected at $1.5MM as an early qualifier via Super Two.
- The Phillies announced deals with right-hander Dylan Covey, catcher Garrett Stubbs and outfielder Jake Cave. Terms were not disclosed.
- The White Sox announced agreement with reliever Matt Foster on a deal for $750K, narrowly above the league minimum. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in April.
Earlier Tonight
- The Royals announced agreement with lefty reliever Josh Taylor. He’ll make $1.1MM, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Acquired from the Red Sox last winter, Taylor allowed an 8.15 ERA over 17 2/3 innings before undergoing season-ending back surgery. He was projected for a $1.3MM salary.
- The Athletics announced today that they have agreed to one-year deals with infielders Miguel Andujar and Abraham Toro. The club claimed Andujar off waivers from Pittsburgh earlier this month and swung a deal to acquire Toro from the Brewers earlier this week. Andujar hit .250/.300/.476 in 90 trips to the plate in the majors this year while Toro appeared in just nine games at the big league level but slashed .444/.524/.778 in that extremely limited action. Andujar will make $1.7MM (Heyman link); Toro is set for a $1.275MM salary.
- The Giants have a deal with outfielder Austin Slater for $4MM, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). That’s a little north of his $3.6MM projected salary. Slater has over five years of service time and will be a free agent next offseason. The right-handed hitter is coming off a .270/.348/.400 showing over 89 games. He’s a career .285/.374/.463 batter against left-handed pitching but owns a .227/.314/.333 mark versus righties.