Identifying Potential Deadline Sellers
The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies completed a trade on Friday, a rarity in this shortened season. While most pundits expect a quiet deadline 9 days from now, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal sees a template in Friday’s deal that might pave the way for more deals: “Desperate buyer. Eager seller. Cold hard cash to seal the deal.” That very well may be an equation that works, but there are a number of complications this trade season – including the identification of those “eager sellers.”
The Red Sox qualify, but it’s fair to wonder how many viable arms they have to move from the league’s worst pitching staff after sending two to Philly. The Angels begrudgingly find themselves with the worst record in the American League. The Mariners should be open for business again this year. The Rangers could have some interesting names if they decide to sell – especially from the rotation – currently 5 1/2 out of the wild card. The Tigers largely have the wrong combination of young players unlikely to move and veterans without much appeal, while the Royals rarely qualify as “eager sellers” no matter their position in the standings. Still, the tastemakers at the top of the American League have begun to pull away just enough to start some conversations with the cellar-dwellers.
It’s a different story in the National League, where the Pirates are the only team more than 2 1/2 games out of a wild card spot. Pittsburgh can dangle Keone Kela – if he’s healthy – and southpaw Derek Holland as well as some of their more controllable players, per MLB.com’s Adam Berry. Josh Bell would be the big fish here, and with a new regime in place and Bell off to a slow start, there could be the makings of a deal, but it’ll likely take some doing to pull him from the steel city. Trevor Williams and Adam Frazier are controllable, but both are 28-years-old and could do more for the Pirates’ future as trade bait. Richard Rodriguez, 30, is off to a great start (14-to-1 K/BB through 10 2/3 innings). Given the league-wide dearth of reliable/healthy bullpen arms, it’d be surprising to see Rodriguez survive trade season.
To illustrate the difficulty of finding an NL seller, we can stay in the same division. The Reds are off to a relatively disappointing 11-13 start, but that still places them just 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. They continue to be all-in this season, and they are hoping to add some talent, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Nightengale suggests they could look for a lefty bat to join the infield mix or to fortify their bullpen. The Reds might benefit most, however, from Eugenio Suarez finding his footing and Pedro Strop and Robert Stephenson returning to shore up the bullpen.
The other side of the deadline coin is finding the right prospects to ship out. Without minor league games to scout players, teams are mostly reliant on old or incomplete information. The Astros, for instance, could dangle top prospect Forrest Whitley, but after a disappointing 2019 and an injury early this season, it’s difficult to pinpoint his value. Still, new GM James Click isn’t taking anyone off the trade table for now, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros would appear to be selling low on Whitley, however, and given the bizarre circumstances of this season, they might see more value waiting to see if he returns to form.
Pirates President Travis Williams Tests Positive For Covid-19
The Pirates announced Thursday that team president Travis Williams has tested positive for Covid-19. The club has conducted contact tracing to identify the potential for infections elsewhere in the organization, but Williams was not in contact with players, coaches or support staff leading up to his positive test, as the the team on the road. In a press release, Williams offered the following statement:
I have recently tested positive for COVID-19 after feeling the onset of symptoms on Monday evening. Fortunately, however, I followed the critical health and safety protocols that we have put in place, including wearing a mask as required, maintaining safe social distance and, upon the onset of symptoms, immediately isolating myself and getting tested which has prevented further impact to others. We have also conducted a thorough contact tracing procedure to identify anyone who I may have possibly been in contact with, which does not include any of our players, members of our coaching staff, or our baseball operations support staff as the team had been on the road. At this time, we have no known additional positive tests within our organization.
I am on the road to recovery. In the meantime, I wanted to use my diagnosis as another reminder that we are all susceptible. It is critical we all follow CDC guidelines and state mandates, and have a heightened sense of self awareness in order to protect each other. We all must do our part to get through this pandemic together.
The Pirates recently returned home from what was supposed to be a seven-game road trip, although five of their seven scheduled games were postponed due to the Cardinals’ team outbreak and the recent positive test on the Reds. They’re currently hosting the Indians for a three-game series and will then host the Brewers for another three-game set before heading back out on the road.
Reds/Royals Game Postponed In Favor Of Wednesday Doubleheader
10:19am: Major League Baseball has formally announced that tonight’s game has been rescheduled as part of a doubleheader tomorrow.
10:06am: The Reds’ schedule has been in a state of limbo after Saturday’s positive Covid-19 test(s), but they appear to be trending toward a resumption of play. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that tonight’s game against the Royals will also be postponed — as was the case with the final two games of this weekend’s series versus the Pirates — but the two sides will play a doubleheader tomorrow (Twitter links). The Reds’ most recent wave of tests came back negative, and they’re en route to Kansas City right now. However, the league will take the extra step of pushing back their return one more day.
It’s a point of frustration for some fans, but MLB has seemingly become more cautious with its scheduling in the wake broad-reaching outbreaks on the Marlins and Cardinals rosters. Both of those clubs saw new positives emerge well after the initial cases were identified. Miami had new cases six days after their initial positives, and the Cardinals had new positives more than a week after their initial cases became known. Other members of the organization tested positive along the way in those outbreaks, and that has not been the case with the Reds. But the league understandably hopes to avoid a third outbreak that wipes out more than a week’s worth of games.
Pushing today’s game into a doubleheader tomorrow won’t delay either club’s schedule, assuming the organization continues to test negative tomorrow. As for the makeup games against the Pirates, there’s no set date yet, although the two teams have a pair of series left on the schedule that present ample opportunity for makeup games. Their Sept. 4-6 series in Pittsburgh is currently scheduled to be bookended by a pair of off-days, and the Sept. 14-16 series in Cincinnati is followed by a Sept. 17 off day.
Pirates, Jandel Gustave Agree To Deal
The Pirates have agreed to a contract with free-agent righty Jandel Gustave, Robert Murray reports (via Twitter). The agreement is still pending a physical. The Giants outrighted Gustave off the 40-man roster last weekend, but as a player who’d been previously outrighted at least once in the past — the Astros outrighted Gustave following the 2018 season — he had the right to decline the assignment in favor of free agency.
Gustave, 27, didn’t pitch in the big leagues for the Giants in 2020 but logged 24 1/3 frames with them last season. He’s tallied a total of 44 1/3 innings in the Majors between Houston and San Francisco, logging a 3.43 ERA and 3.97 FIP — albeit with a lackluster 32-to-20 K/BB ratio.
Gustave has found success due in no small part to limiting home runs in the big leagues (just three allowed). A 0.60 HR/9 mark is difficult to sustain in any environment but seems particularly tough to continue at a time when 15 percent of fly-balls are clearing the outfield fence, league-wide, for a second straight season. Gustave, by contrast, has seen just seven percent of his fly-balls in the Majors turn into home runs. To his credit, he’s also been quite adept at avoiding the long ball in the minors (0.39 HR/9), so perhaps he can continue the trend.
Last season, Gustave averaged a healthy 96.1 mph on his fastball and paired that with a well above-average spin rate. Gustave has generally posted average or better ground-ball rates in the minors and averaged a bit shy of a strikeout per inning. Details of his arrangement with Pittsburgh aren’t clear yet, and the club hasn’t formally announced the move. Given that Gustave went unclaimed on waivers a week ago, it seems likely to be a minor league pact that adds him to the 60-man player pool and sends him to the Pirates’ alternate training site.
Henderson Alvarez’s Deal With Pirates Falls Through
Aug. 16: Alvarez will be staying with the Milkmen, as the righty tweeted from his personal account that the deal with the Pirates “did not materialize” because “they signed another player.” While no names were mentioned, Pittsburgh claimed right-hander Nick Tropeano off waivers from the Yankees last Tuesday, two days after news broke of the agreement between Alvarez and the Pirates.
Aug. 9: The Pirates have reached an agreement to sign free-agent right-hander Henderson Alvarez, according to MLB insider Robert Murray. Alvarez, 30, has not pitched in the Majors since 2017, and has most recently turned up with the American Association’s Milwaukee Milkmen. The deal, which is still pending a physical, will bring Alvarez aboard on a minor league contract, per Adam Berry of MLB.com. He’ll report to the Pirates’ alternate training site in Altoona.
Although it feels like ages since we’ve seen Henderson Alvarez on a Major League mound, he’s still just 30 years old and hasn’t yet eclipsed six years of MLB service time.
He’s best recognized for his stint with the Marlins, where he was a key member of the rotation for the Fish of the early-2010s. Alvarez was one of the pieces sent back to Miami in the 2012 blockbuster trade that seemed to involve half of MLB (it was in fact only 12 plyaers), with Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, and Josh Johnson headlining the package going to Toronto. In addition to throwing a no-hitter for Miami in 2013, he enjoyed a career season the following year, even earning an All-Star appearance for his efforts. In 2014, he notched a 2.65 ERA in 187 innings, including three complete-game shutouts.
Unfortunately, a shoulder injury that limited him to just four starts in 2015 ultimately derailed his career. He was non-tendered by the Marlins and struggled to find work thereafter.
Alvarez pitched in affiliated ball as recently as last year, getting work primarily as a reliever with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate. He appeared in 24 games and posted a 5.94 ERA, striking out just 37 batters in 53 innings. Since then, he’s pitched in the Mexican League before debuting with the AA’s Milwaukee club last week.
His last Major League stint came with the Phillies in 2017, when he made three starts for the team after signing in August. He struck out just six batters and walked 11 in 14 2/3 innings. Alvarez has never been a strikeout pitcher, averaging just 4.7 K/9 for his career; that’s a rarity in today’s game, and could pose a challenge in his path back to the big leagues, though that hasn’t stopped Alvarez from succeeding in the past. And given how long it’s been since we’ve gotten a good look at his stuff, plenty could have changed in the intervening years.
It’s no secret that the 3-12 Pirates are in need of pitching of any kind. Their 5.55 team ERA is the worst mark in the National League. Their bullpen in particular has been stretched thin by injuries to the likes of Michael Feliz, Keone Kela, and Kyle Crick. Evidently, GM Ben Cherington is not entirely satisfied with his internal pitching depth, which has been tested by those injuries. We’ll hope to see Alvarez back on a Major League mound in the near future.
Reds Player Tests Positive For Coronavirus
SATURDAY: Games scheduled for today and tomorrow between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates has been postponed after a Reds’ player tested positive for COVID-19. There have been no more positive tests beyond the one for the Reds, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (Twitter links). Given potential exposure during yesterday’s game, there’s more than enough reason to push tonight’s game at the very least.
MLB issued a press release announcing the cancellations, which read: “Following a positive test for COVID-19 by a Cincinnati Reds player, tonight’s scheduled game, as well as tomorrow afternoon’s contest, between the Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park have been postponed to allow for additional testing and to complete the contact tracing process. Major League Baseball will continue to provide updates as they become available.”
FRIDAY: An unidentified Reds player has tested positive for the coronavirus, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. As a result, the likelihood is that the league will postpone their game against the Pirates on Saturday, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports.
Positive COVID-19 tests across the majors have thrown a wrench into the league’s plans early this season, and it’s now up in the air when the Reds and Pirates will return to action. So far, the teams have split the first two contests in a four-game set, but it appears they’ll have to make up at least one game at a later date.
The virus already impacted both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh before Friday. The Reds’ Matt Davidson tested positive last month, though he has since returned to action, while Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel missed time after exhibiting symptoms.
Meanwhile, the Pirates have seen the likes of Gregory Polanco, Keone Kela and Ke’Bryan Hayes sit out because of COVID (Polanco and Kela are now back on the MLB roster). Furthermore, Pittsburgh’s three-game series against the Cardinals this week was postponed because of the outbreak that has taken a toll on the St. Louis club.
Pirates Designate Miguel Del Pozo For Assignment
The Pirates announced Thursday that left-hander Miguel Del Pozo has been designated for assignment. The move opens a spot on the 40-man roster for closer Keone Kela, who has officially been reinstated from the Covid-19 injured list.
Del Pozo, 27, has seen time in the Majors in both of the past two seasons — last year with the Angels — but been clobbered for 18 runs on 17 hits and 16 walks in just 13 innings. He’s punched out 13 hitters in that time, but his overall results obviously haven’t earned him any type of staying power. Del Pozo has respectable numbers up through the Double-A level but has yet to find success in Triple-A or the Majors. The Pirates will have a week to either trade him, release him or look to pass him through outright waivers.
Kela’s return was announced by manager Derek Shelton yesterday. He’ll step right into the closer’s role for a Pirates club that has gone 3-13 to begin the season. Long a high-quality reliever, Kela is a free agent at season’s end and figures to be traded in the coming weeks so long as he remains healthy.
Pirates To Activate Keone Kela
Pirates closer Keone Kela will be active for the team’s upcoming series against the Reds, manager Derek Shelton announced to reporters Wednesday (Twitter link via Will Graves of the Associated Press). It’ll be the season debut for Kela, who has yet to pitch since missing Summer Camp due to a positive Covid-19 test.
Kela, 27, confirmed in a late-July interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he’d tested positive. Despite being asymptomatic, he wasn’t able to meet the requirement of consecutive negative tests, though, which dragged his absence out into a weeks-long ordeal. He was eventually cleared to report to the team in early August and has been building up since that time.
It’ll be a quick ramp-up for Kela, but he’s surely champing at the bit to return. The hard-throwing righty is a free agent for the first time this winter, so he undoubtedly wants as large a window as possible to impress potential suitors — particularly after a minor elbow issue limited him to 29 2/3 frames last year. There’s ample incentive for the Pirates to get him back on the hill, too. Kela represents one of their most obvious trade chips as the team eyes the future and embarks on what looks to be a rebuilding effort. Starling Marte was already traded over the winter.
Kela has pitched in parts of five Major League seasons. He’s had some injury troubles and at times drawn negative headlines for off-field issues — last year’s altercation with a member of the coaching staff led to a team-issued suspension — but Kela is an undeniably talented late-inning reliever. In 214 2/3 big league innings, he’s pitched to a 3.23 ERA with 11.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 and a 41.3 percent ground-ball rate. He’s been particularly strong over the past three seasons, logging a combined 2.84 ERA and 3.20 FIP in 120 1/3 innings of relief between Texas and Pittsburgh. Shelton has previously confirmed that Kela will serve as Pittsburgh’s closer upon his return.
Nick Burdi Suffers Season-Ending Forearm Strain; Surgery Not Yet Being Considered
Aug. 12: Burdi won’t require surgery to repair what is being termed as a significant forearm strain, Tomczyk tells reporters (Twitter link via Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). The Pirates believe the injury is related to Burdi’s prior TOS procedure. He’ll receive a platelet-rich plasma injection and be shut down for the next 10 to 12 weeks before being reevaluated.
Aug. 5: The Pirates announced today that they’ve placed reliever Nick Burdi on the 45-day injured list. He’s said to be dealing with a right elbow injury. Utilityman JT Riddle has been activated from the injured list to take the open roster spot.
While the full outlook isn’t yet known, this is just wretched news for Burdi. The team already has seen enough to know he won’t be able to return in 2020, director of health medicine Todd Tomczyk told reporters including MLB.com’s Adam Berry (Twitter link).
The 27-year-old flamethrower has dealt with numerous significant arm issues over his halting career. He has already rehabbed through Tommy John and thoracic outlet surgeries. Burdi was once a top 50 draft pick and a high-profile prospect in the Twins’ system, but those arm woes have prevented him from capitalizing on his talents. Burdi has a career 3.44 ERA and better than 12 punchouts per nine innings pitched in the minors. He picked up his first big league save in 2020 and held opponents to a run on two hits and two walks with four strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings.
Pirates Transfer Clay Holmes To 45-Day Injured List
The Pirates have transferred righty Clay Holmes from the 10-day injured list to the 45-day injured list, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. His spot on the 40-man roster goes to Nick Tropeano, who was claimed off waivers earlier today.
Holmes has been out since July 28 with a forearm strain. He has to spend 45 days on the IL from the date of his initial placement — not from the date he’s transferred to the 45-day list — so there’s technically still time for him to return late in the year. However, Mackey notes that the move to the 45-day IL is expected to end Holmes’ season.
Holmes, 27, pitched just 1 1/3 innings this season before being placed on the IL. The Pirates selected him in the ninth round of the same draft that they took Gerrit Cole first overall. Holmes was expected to be a tough sign out of high school and indeed received a $1.2MM bonus to forgo his commitment to Auburn at the time. He ranked among Pittsburgh’s top 30 prospects for each of the next eight seasons, per Baseball America.
To this point, however, he’s yet to find his footing in the Majors. Holmes had Tommy John surgery in 2014 and missed the entire season as well as the bulk of the 2015 campaign. He’s had control issues in the upper minors since but managed to post solid ERA marks. However, he’s appeared in 47 big league games and been knocked around for a 5.91 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 6.8 BB/9 through 77 2/3 innings. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a whopping 59.2 percent rate, limited homers well (0.81 HR/9) and averaged 94.5 mph on his oft-used sinker in the big leagues. But his penchant for free passes and hit batters (11) have prevented him from establishing himself as a reliable option.
Holmes is out of minor league options, meaning the Bucs will have somewhat of a decision on their hands over the winter. He’ll have to break camp with the club in 2021 or else be designated for assignment. If the club doesn’t expect Holmes to be on its Opening Day roster in 2021, it’s possible he’ll be outrighted early in the offseason as a means of opening some 40-man roster flexibility over the course of the winter. Holmes, however, isn’t yet eligible for arbitration, so the Pirates could also keep him around for some added pitching depth.