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What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?

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The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.

By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.

Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.

As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."

Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.

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Rangers Acquire Andrew Chafin

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The Rangers announced they’ve acquired lefty reliever Andrew Chafin from the Tigers. Pitching prospects Joseph Montalvo and Chase Lee are going to Detroit. Texas designated righty Jonathan Hernandez for assignment in a corresponding move.

The 34-year-old Chafin is in the midst of yet another solid season. He’s pitched 37 innings of 3.16 ERA ball with a big 30.9% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate and a 35.8% grounder rate. He’s been particularly dominant of late, rattling off 17 innings of one-run ball with a 26-to-5 K/BB ratio dating back to early June.

That 35.8% grounder rate is an uncharacteristically low mark for Chafin, who’s changed up his pitch usage this year. He’s throwing more sliders than ever before (46.4%) and missing more bats as a result but also yielding more balls in the air and a few more walks than in recent years. Chafin’s velocity is down a bit from its 93-94 mph peak, however, sitting around 92 mph on average this year with both his four-seamer and sinker. It’s possible the change in repertoire was borne out of the diminishing life on those harder offerings. Regardless, it’s been an effective recipe for the well-traveled southpaw, who’ll now suit up for the sixth team of his 11-year career.

Chafin is playing on a one-year, $4.75MM contract, although the Rangers are picking up another year of possible control over him in the form of a 2025 club option valued at $6.5MM (a net $6MM decision after factoring in a $500K buyout). He’s owed about $1.42MM of his $4.25MM base salary but has a handful of incentives approaching that could boost the value of that contract. Chafin would earn a $125K bonus for pitching in his 50th game — he’s at 41 appearances — before taking home $250K bonuses for reaching 55 and 60 games, a $300K bonus for 65 games and a $325K bonus for reaching 70 appearances. The last of those milestones could be hard to reach, but the Rangers will be on the hook for some additional incentives of note, which will all come with a 30% tax given their luxury-tax status.

With Chafin’s acquisition and Cody Bradford’s return from a 60-day IL stint, a Rangers bullpen that has lacked an established left-handed option for much of the season will suddenly have two quality options in that regard. Chafin will join a late-inning mix including Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Jose Leclerc. He’s held lefties to an awful .180/.261/.213 batting line this season, and while righties are enjoying more success at .293/.366/.390, they’re not managing much power against the southpaw. In his career, Chafin has yielded only a .234/.313/.361 line to right-handed opponents, though much of that came with a more vibrant fastball and different mix of his three pitches.

The trade for Chafin underscores the fact that yesterday’s trade of Michael Lorenzen to the Royals was less about selling off in the midst of a disappointing season and rather opening space for the return of several other veteran starters (e.g. Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Dane Dunning and, further down the road, Jacob deGrom). Much of the cost-savings from that trade of Lorenzen — earning $4.5MM with incentives of his own — will now be reallocated to the comparably priced Chafin.

Montalvo is the more highly regarded of the prospects headed to Detroit. Baseball America ranked him 19th on their most recent update of the Texas system, crediting him with a plus changeup and the ability to spin his low-90s fastball. He’s dominating lower minors opponents, striking out nearly 30% of batters faced with a 2.44 ERA in High-A. Lee is an upper minors reliever who’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next offseason if he’s not added to the 40-man roster. He lost the first couple months of this season to injury but had a 3.98 ERA in Triple-A last year.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Rangers were finalizing a deal for Chafin. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal confirmed an agreement was in place. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the Tigers would receive Montalvo and Lee.

Latest On Tigers’ Trade Candidates

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“The Tigers are listening to everything” in regards to trade possibilities, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes, as the team is at least open to moving both pending free agents and players under longer-term control.  It remains unclear exactly how aggressive the Tigers might be in moving anyone who isn’t controlled beyond 2025, as while it costs the team nothing to test the market for offers, Detroit does broadly expect to finally get back to contention next season.

With a 52-54 record, the Tigers are still technically in contention this season, as they sit only 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card berth.  A stirring 14-8 record in July has kept Detroit alive in the playoff picture, yet with the postseason still something of a longshot, this recent surge hasn’t been enough to detract from the Tigers’ plan to move some veterans.

Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha have been mentioned in trade rumors already, but Petzold notes that the Tigers are “shopping” catcher Carson Kelly.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in a piece earlier this month, Kelly has rebounded after a couple of down years to assume close to an even split of Detroit’s catching duties alongside Jake Rogers. Kelly has is hitting .242/.327/.393 with seven home runs over 202 plate appearances, translating to an above-average 106 wRC+.

Despite the importance of the catching position, it is relatively rare to see prominent backstops dealt at the deadline, due in part to all of the added prep work that a catcher must handle behind the scenes.  Since so much of the job is based around handling pitchers and calling games, it can quite difficult for a catcher to join a new team and immediately be tasked with learning the tendencies for an entire new set of hurlers.

This alone complicates Detroit’s efforts to move Kelly, not to mention the fact that a lot of other contenders are relatively set at the catching position.  That said, you never know what teams might emerge with needs — the Red Sox weren’t seemingly in search of catching on paper, yet Boston acquired Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays yesterday.  Kelly is also pretty inexpensive, as has about $1.22MM remaining on his $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season.

In terms of players with extra control, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller can each be retained via club options for the 2025 season.  (Chafin’s option is worth $6.5MM with a $500K buyout, while Miller’s option is for $4.25MM with a $250K buyout.)  According to Petzold, the Tigers are leaning towards picking up both options for now, though their plans could change if another team makes a good enough offer for either pitcher by Tuesday’s deadline.

Chafin has more value as a left-handed reliever, plus his numbers are better than Miller’s this season.  Chafin has a 3.25 ERA with an outstanding 29.9% strikeout rate over 36 innings, and while he is still prone to issuing free passes, the veteran’s 9.6% walk rate is still markedly improved over his 12.5% figure from 2023.  Miller is something of the opposite, as he has a strong 5.4% walk rate but his other numbers are a lot rougher — a 4.66 ERA in 36 2/3 frames out of the Tigers’ bullpen.

Sticking with the relief corps, Petzold reports that the Tigers have gotten trade interest in both Jason Foley and Will Vest, but the club is unlikely to move either right-hander.  Foley and Vest are both controlled through 2027 and won’t even reach their first rounds of salary arbitration until this coming offseason, so barring a very compelling offer, Detroit has no reason to consider moving relievers who aim to be part of the bullpen plans for years to come.

Foley in particular has performed well as Detroit’s closer this season, saving 15 of 18 chances and posting a 3.22 ERA in 36 1/3 innings.  If there is a reason for the Tigers to think about selling high, it could be that Foley doesn’t fit the traditional model for a lights-out stopper.  Foley is a grounder specialist with surprisingly low strikeout totals for a pitcher with a 96.9mph fastball, though his slider has been much more effective than his heater this season.

Vest has quietly posted strong numbers for two seasons in a row now, following up his 2.98 ERA in 48 1/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.15 ERA in 45 2/3 frames this year.  Somewhat akin to Foley, Vest also doesn’t miss many bats, but he is very good at limiting hard contact.  Only six percent of Vest’s fly balls have left the yard over the last two seasons, and his 2.9% barrel rate is in the 97th percentile of all pitchers in 2024.

Tigers Sign Andrew Chafin

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December 12: The Tigers have now made it official, announcing their deal with Chafin and the details on the $1.25MM in annual incentives. In both 2024 and 2025, Chafin can get $125K for 50 games pitched, $250K each for 55 and 60 games pitched, $300K for 65 games pitched and $325K for 70 games pitched.

December 10: The Tigers are reportedly in agreement with left-hander Andrew Chafin on a one-year deal that includes a club option for the 2025 season, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Petzold goes on to note that the contract comes with a $4.25MM base salary in 2024 that could reach $5.5MM with incentives. The club option, worth $6.5MM, could reach $7.75MM with incentives and comes with a $500K buyout, raising the contract’s total guarantee to $4.75MM.

It’s a reunion for the veteran lefty, who pitched in 64 games with the Tigers in 2022. Chafin, 34 in June, was a first-round pick by the Diamondbacks in the 2011 draft and made his big league debut not long after in 2014. He’d go on to play in Arizona for six-and-a-half seasons as a solid left-handed middle relief option, pitching to a 3.74 ERA in 306 innings of work with the Diamondbacks before being shipped to the Cubs at the trade deadline in 2020. During his time in Arizona, Chafin struck out 25.8% of batters faced while routinely posting groundball rates north of 50%. The lefty’s 2020 season was limited by injury woes to just 9 2/3 innings, but that didn’t stop Chicago from retaining him on the roster headed into the 2021 season.

2021 proved to be a breakout season for Chafin, who dominated in 43 appearances with the Cubs as one of the club’s primary set-up men to Craig Kimbrel alongside Ryan Tepera. Early in the 2021 season, Chafin combined with Tepera, Kimbrel and starting pitcher Zach Davies to no-hit the Dodgers for the first combined no-no in Cubs history. While Chafin helped to make history in Chicago, it wound up being little more than a footnote in his dominant 2021 campaign. The southpaw’s 24.7% strikeout rate and 50% groundball rate with the Cubs that year produced an impressive 2.06 ERA and 2.69 FIP. Upon a midseason trade to Oakland, Chafin unlocked another gear, posting a microscopic 1.53 ERA in 29 1/3 innings down the stretch to bring his overall season ERA down to just 1.83 over 68 2/3 innings of work. That performance was good for a whopping 229 ERA+.

Chafin’s strong 2021 campaign earned him a two-year guarantee in Detroit that included an opt-out after the first year of the deal. Though not as dominant as his 2021 campaign, Chafin put up strong numbers for the Tigers in 2022 with a 2.83 ERA and 3.06 FIP across 57 1/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate ticked up to 27.6% while he induced grounders 51.3% of the time. The solid performance backed up by excellent peripherals persuaded Chafin to opt-out of the final year and $6.5MM of his contract in Detroit last offseason. That decision ultimately did not go well, as Chafin signed with his original team in Arizona for just $6.25MM guaranteed last year after lingering on the free agent market until mid-February.

The veteran lefty went on to struggle in 2023, posting a 4.73 ERA and 4.01 FIP across 51 1/3 innings of work split between the Diamondbacks and Brewers last year. Chafin’s 28.1% strikeout rate was as good as ever, but he generated a groundball rate of just 38.5% while walking a career-high 12.5% of batters faced. Despite Chafin’s struggles in his age-33 season last year, the signing could prove wise for a Tigers club that was known to be interested in adding a lefty reliever to its bullpen should he find a way to either cut down on the walks or rediscover the proclivity for grounders he demonstrated in recent years.

Brewers Decline Options On Andrew Chafin, Justin Wilson

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The Brewers have declined their options on left-handed relievers Andrew Chafin and Justin Wilson, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

Chafin, a 33-year-old lefty reliever, lingered on the free agent market last winter until mid-February.  He signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal to return to the Diamondbacks, the team that made him a first-round pick out of Kent State nearly 12 years prior.  Chafin took a share of Arizona’s closing duties this year, logging eight saves but with some rough outings along the way.  He was able to punch out nearly a third of batters faced with Arizona, but also walked 12% of them.  Having added Paul Sewald from the Mariners, the D’Backs shipped Chafin to Milwaukee for righty Peter Strzelecki.

Chafin struggled mightily with the Brewers, unable to curb the walks or maintain a healthy strikeout rate.  In a stretch in late August, Chafin was battered for nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings spanning five outings.  He righted the ship in September, at least ERA-wise, but the southpaw’s $725K buyout was an easy call for the Brewers as compared to his $7.25MM club option.

Wilson, another veteran lefty, did not pitch in 2023.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2022, after which the Brewers signed him on a $1MM guarantee.  The Brewers reinstated Wilson from the 60-day IL in late July, but before he could get into a game he went back to the IL with a lat strain.  That injury knocked him out for the rest of the season, leaving little chance Milwaukee would choose the $2.5MM club option over his $150K buyout.

Chafin and Wilson will join the free agent market for lefty relievers, and figure to sign one-year deals.

The Brewers do have some lefty depth in the bullpen, as Hoby Milner posted a fine 2023 season.  Aaron Ashby, who underwent April labrum surgery, wasn’t able to build back up to help the Brewers this year but should be good to go in Spring Training.  Ashby is a potential rotation candidate as well.

Brewers, Diamondbacks Swap Andrew Chafin For Peter Strzelecki

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The Brewers have picked up left-hander Andrew Chafin in a trade with the Diamondbacks, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).  John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Phoenix reports that right-hander Peter Strzelecki is headed back to the D’Backs in return.  Rosenthal linked Milwaukee to Chafin’s market earlier today.

Give how Arizona also just landed Paul Sewald from the Mariners yesterday, it makes for an interesting buy/sell dynamic with the Diamondbacks’ front office.  Obviously the D’Backs have designs on reaching the postseason, yet still opted to pull the trigger on dealing a reliever who is technically a rental player, since Chafin only signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal last winter.  However, he is controllable through next season via a $7.25MM club option ($750K buyout), so the Brew Crew could potentially be viewing Chafin as a member of their 2024 bullpen.  Incidentally, Chafin also receives a $250K bonus now that he has been traded.

That said, the D’Backs are also getting back a controllable reliever in Strzelecki, who has posted some good results over his two MLB seasons.  Since Strzelecki isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season and naturally comes at a much lower price tag than Chafin, the Diamondbacks saved some money while perhaps not taking much of a hit to the overall quality of their relief corps.

Chafin has a 4.19 ERA over 34 1/3 innings this season, with that number only just inflated by a disastrous outing (five runs in two-thirds of an inning) against the Braves on July 24.  The southpaw’s SIERA is a more solid 3.38, and his 32.7% strikeout rate put him the 94th percentile of all pitchers.  Chafin’s control has fluctuated throughout his career, and the pendulum has swung down this season, as he has an ungainly 12.0% walk rate.

Now in his 10th MLB season, Chafin has been a generally reliable relief arm over his career, and he’ll now change uniforms once again to join a Brewers team in severe need of left-handed depth.  While Hoby Milner is having a strong season, he has been the only left-hander in Milwaukee’s bullpen for most of the season.  The Brewers were hoping to have Justin Wilson back from Tommy John surgery, yet Wilson unfortunately suffered a lat strain while warming up in his return outing, and was placed back onto the 15-day injured list.

With no timeline yet on Wilson’s return, it is easy to see why the Brewers were so aggressive in seeking out another left-hander, and in dealing a controllable pitcher from their right-handed relief depth.  Strzelecki was an undrafted free agent for the Brewers in 2018, but he made his way to the majors to toss 70 2/3 innings for Milwaukee over the last two seasons.  Despite near-identical SIERAs (3.47 and 3.66) and pretty similar secondary metrics over his two years of work, Strzelecki had a 2.83 ERA over 35 frames in 2022, but a 4.54 ERA in 35 2/3 innings this season.

One of a few hidden pitching gems uncovered by the Brewers front office and pitching development staff, Strzelecki has a 25.3% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate over his career, both above the league average.  A slightly loss of control (though not in the walk category) could be one reason for Strzelecki’s relative dropoff in performance this year, as he has hit eight batters.  The Brewers only just called Strzelecki back up from the minors after a month-long stint at Triple-A, and he didn’t make another appearance prior to the trade.

Cubs Interested In Left-Handed Bullpen Arms

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The Cubs, after surging back to .500 ahead of the trade deadline thanks to a recent eight-game win streak, have left their previously-expected role as sellers behind them and instead pivoted toward buying by landing third baseman Jeimer Candelario in a deal with the Nationals yesterday. With just a couple of hours left before the trade deadline, Chicago appears to have at least one more item on their shopping list: relief pitching, particularly from the left side.

Both Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM and Jesse Rogers of ESPN have linked the club to the lefty relief market in recent days, with Levine noting the club’s interest in Mets left-hander Brooks Raley while Rogers lists Rockies southpaw Brent Suter and Aaron Bummer of the White Sox as potential options for the Cubs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post, meanwhile, suggested a reunion with the Cubs as one possible destination for Diamondbacks lefty Andrew Chafin, who he suggests “could be dealt” before this evening’s deadline.

While the club appears to have a preference for a southpaw, they’ve also apparently explored adding right-handed relief options, as Levine reports the club has “kicked the tires” on Pirates closer David Bednar while Rogers suggests the club could have interest in Tigers right-handers Alex Lange and Jason Foley. While the club already added a right-handed relief option yesterday by acquiring Jose Cuas from the Royals, each of Bednar, Lange, and Foley would figure to be a more impactful option than Cuas, who sports a 4.54 ERA in 45 appearances this season.

That the bullpen would be a focus for Chicago is hardly a surprise, as the club’s 3.93 in the bullpen this season ranks middle-of-the-pack, with offseason acquisitions Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer having largely struggled in Chicago while expected late-inning options Keegan Thompson and Brandon Hughes have struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness.

Diamondbacks Listening To Trade Offers On Andrew Chafin, Joe Mantiply

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11:40am: Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds the Cubs and Twins as fits for Chafin. The Cubs have Anthony Kay as their only traditional lefty reliever right now. The Twins have Jovani Moran and Caleb Thielbar, the latter of whom just returned from the injured list.

11:06am: The Diamondbacks made a big addition to their bullpen yesterday when they acquired Paul Sewald from the Mariners. It seems they have at least some openness to now subtracting from their relief corps, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports they have fielded offers for lefties Andrew Chafin and Joe Mantiply, with the Brewers listed as a team with interest in Chafin.

On the surface, it’s a little bit curious to see the Diamondbacks considering this path, as they just parted with infielder Josh Rojas, rookie outfielder Dominic Canzone and infield prospect Ryan Bliss in order to upgrade their bullpen with Sewald. They are currently tied with two other clubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. To now turn and remove pieces from the group would be a bit of an odd move, though listening on offers doesn’t necessarily mean the club will indeed make a move, as front offices are generally open to listening on all offers in order to gauge the market.

Chafin, 33, has long been one of the better lefty relievers in the league, with a 3.31 career earned run average over 519 appearances. Over 2021 and 2022, he made 135 of those appearances, posting a 2.29 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 47.9% ground ball rate. The Diamondbacks were able to bring him aboard on a one-year deal this offseason, guaranteeing him $6.25MM in the form of a $5.5MM salary plus a $750K buyout on a $7.25MM club option. There’s also $1MM in bonuses available, with Chafin getting $250K at 55, 60, 65 and 70 appearances, then another $250K bonus if he’s traded.

He has already made 43 appearances on the year, putting him close to triggering those bonuses. His 4.19 ERA in that time is obviously a drop-off from his recent work, though there’s still some decent numbers under the hood. His 35.4% grounder rate and 12% walk rate are less than ideal, but his 32.7% strikeout rate is easily a career best. A .350 batting average on balls in play has probably helped some extra runs across the board, leading to a 3.13 FIP and 3.38 SIERA.

Left-handed relief is always in demand and there would likely be plenty of clubs willing to look past Chafin’s ERA, especially given his long track record of success and intriguing strikeout bump. Rosenthal says the Diamondbacks are still looking for starting pitching, something that general manager Mike Hazen has long been open about. They might not be able to flip a reliever like Chafin for meaningful help in the rotation but it makes sense that they would at least listen to see what’s possible. They would still have Kyle Nelson and Tyler Gilbert as lefties in their bullpen even without Chafin.

Arizona listening on Mantiply is far easier to understand. He had a really solid showing in the previous two seasons, posting a combined 3.07 ERA in 2021 and 2022, getting selected to the All-Star game in the latter season. He struck out 23.6% of opponents in that time while walking just 5.5% and kept the ball on the ground at a 50.5% pace.

Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to carry that into 2023, as he has a 5.74 ERA in 15 2/3 innings. He’s been on the injured list twice, once due to left shoulder inflammation and then a right hamstring strain. He’s been sent to Triple-A Reno on optional assignment twice, the second of which is currently ongoing. He has a 7.30 ERA down at that level. But his rate stats are still decent this year, with poor strand rates and some extra fly balls leaving the yard perhaps making things look worse than they actually are. If any club is willing to bank on Mantiply’s past results and hope for a bounceback, it would make sense for the Diamdondbacks to hear that out since he’s not even on their active roster at the moment.

The Brewers have operated with one lefty, Hoby Milner, for most of the year. They had Justin Wilson come off the injured list this week after over a year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but he quickly landed right back on the IL due to a lat strain. They’re a fairly sensible landing spot for a southpaw reliever as they battle with for the Central division title or a Wild Card spot in the National League.

Looking Ahead To Upcoming Club Options: NL West

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We’re roughly a third of the way through the 2023 season. Players have had a couple months to build something of a performance track record that’ll play a role in their future contracts. With that in mind, MLBTR will take a look over the coming days at players whose contracts contain team or mutual options to gauge the early trajectory for those upcoming decisions.

We’ll go division by division and open things in the National League West:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Chafin lingered in free agency over the winter after opting out of his deal with the Tigers. The seeming lack of market interest was perplexing given the lefty reliever’s consistent effectiveness over the past few seasons. He’s carried that over into his second stint in the desert. Through 20 1/3 innings, Chafin owns a 3.10 ERA. He’s punched out 36% of opposing hitters on a huge 16.2% swinging strike percentage, both of which would be career-high marks. He’s not a prototypical fireballing reliever but he’s demonstrated he’s capable of missing bats and thriving in high-leverage situations for the past few years. The $6.5MM net decision on next year’s option looks more than reasonable if he keeps this up.

  • Zach Davies: $5.5MM mutual option ($300K buyout, rises to $500K with 16+ starts)

Davies has been limited to three starts by a left oblique strain. He has allowed eight runs with a modest 10:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 12 2/3 innings. There’s not much to go on yet in terms of 2023 performance but Davies looked like a borderline fifth starter the previous two years. The Diamondbacks have enough young pitching they seem likelier to buy him out unless the soft-tossing righty rediscovers his 2019-20 form for the stretch run.

  • Miguel Castro: $5MM option vests with 60+ appearances; would become $6MM player option with 40+ games finished (no buyout)

Castro has already pitched 26 times since signing with Arizona over the winter. He’s on pace to easily surpass the 60-appearance threshold needed to vest next year’s $5MM option if he can avoid the injured list. It could be a closer call as to whether he can turn that guaranteed $5MM salary into a $6MM player option; Castro has finished 12 games thus far, putting him just off the 40-game pace he’d need to do so. (He’s on pace for 36 games finished). Castro has been effective — a 2.22 ERA with roughly average strikeout, walk and swinging strike numbers through 24 1/3 innings — so vesting the player option and retesting the market isn’t out of the question.

Melancon struggled to a 4.66 ERA in 56 innings during his first season in Arizona. He hasn’t pitched this year on account of a Spring Training shoulder strain. Melancon might return in the second half but this is trending towards the team buying him out.

Colorado Rockies

Márquez underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month. He’ll miss the majority of next season as he rehabs. A healthy Márquez would’ve made this an easy call for the Rockies to exercise but the procedure means they’ll buy him out. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rox try to bring him back on a lesser salary or a multi-year deal with an eye towards 2025.

Hand’s peripherals had fallen back between 2021-22 from his All-Star peak. He’s continued to keep runs off the board and seen a notable bounceback in his strikeout rate since a Spring Training deal with Colorado. Hand owns a 3.20 ERA through 19 2/3 frames while striking out 33.7% of batters faced on a decent 11.6% swinging strike percentage. The veteran southpaw has dominated left-handed hitters and is yet to allow a home run this season. If he maintains this form, he’ll be one of the top reliever trade candidates this summer. If Colorado hangs onto him, they could be faced with an interesting decision as to whether to keep him around for an extra $6.5MM next winter.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers signed Muncy to a $13.5MM deal last summer even as he was amidst his worst season since landing in L.A. They’ve been rewarded with a massive bounceback showing. Muncy is tied for second in the majors with 17 home runs. He’s only hitting .208 but carrying a strong .340 on-base percentage thanks to an elite 15.8% walk rate. The $10MM price point would be an easy decision for the Dodgers if Muncy keeps up anything approaching this pace.

Los Angeles brought Hudson back last summer on the heels of a season-ending ACL tear. The veteran reliever hasn’t recovered as quickly from that procedure as he’d hoped. Hudson hasn’t pitched yet this season. He told reporters last night he’ll throw a bullpen session this week but is without a timeline for a return to game action (via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times). It remains to be seen how he’ll look when he takes the mound.

  • Alex Reyes: $3MM team option with escalators ($100K buyout)

The Dodgers took a $1.1MM flier on Reyes after he lost the 2022 season to shoulder surgery. He’s on the 60-day injured list and not expected to be a factor until around the All-Star Break. This one remains to be determined based on his post-rehab form.

  • Blake Treinen (option value between $1-7MM dependent on time spent on IL)

Treinen underwent surgery to repair the rotator cuff and labrum in his throwing shoulder last November. He won’t pitch much, if at all, this season. Treinen’s contract contains an option with a floating value between $1MM and $7MM depending on how much time he spends on the injured list and the issue that puts him on the shelf. Its precise value is yet to be determined, but MLBTR has confirmed it’ll land towards the lower end of that range given Treinen’s surgery.

San Diego Padres

  • Nick Martinez: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option

Martinez has taken on a similar swing role as he served during his first year in San Diego. The right-hander started his first four outings and pitched reasonably well. He was nevertheless bumped back into relief thereafter. For the second consecutive season, Martinez has proven a key multi-inning arm out of the bullpen. He’s posted a 1.35 ERA with a quality 20:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 relief innings, holding opponents to a pitiful .240/.278/.267 batting line.

There’s little question of Martinez’s effectiveness in a relief role, though a $16MM average annual value could be pricy if the organization isn’t planning on giving him another look out of the rotation. Perhaps Martinez’s production over the final four months makes this a clearer decision for San Diego by season’s end. As of now, it looks like a borderline call — not too dissimilar from Martinez’s question of whether to opt out of three years and $18MM last winter. The Padres liked him enough to subsequently re-sign him to a $26MM guarantee with the complex option structure.

  • Michael Wacha: team has two-year, $32MM option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option (with successive player options for 2025-26)

Wacha lingered in free agency last winter. Clubs seemed reluctant to buy into his solid results for the Red Sox, a reflection of middling strikeout and ground-ball numbers. Since landing in San Diego, he’s basically repeating last year’s script. The run prevention is excellent; he’s allowed a 3.45 ERA through 57 1/3 innings over ten starts. Wacha is again throwing strikes and keeping runs off the board despite roughly average strikeout and swinging strike rates.

Maintaining a mid-3.00s ERA for a second straight season might build confidence in his ability to outperform ERA estimators that suggest he’s more of a solid #4 starter than a mid-rotation arm. That said, Wacha doesn’t look all that different now than he did three months ago, when he signed a four-year guarantee with a $6.5MM average annual value. A jump to the $16MM per-year range could be a tougher sell for San Diego, although there’s little doubt Wacha would opt out of the final three years and $18.5MM on his contract if he keeps pitching like this and the Padres decline their end.

San Francisco Giants

Cobb has pitched well since signing a two-year deal with San Francisco over the 2021-22 offseason. He carries a 3.05 ERA through his first 11 starts this year. Cobb’s 60.6% ground-ball rate is stellar and he’s posted average strikeout and walk numbers (21.3% and 6.7%, respectively). An $8MM net decision would be an easy call for the Giants to exercise if Cobb maintains this pace. He’s dealt with injuries in the past but managed 149 2/3 innings over 28 starts last year and has avoided the IL in 2023.

All stats through play Monday.

Diamondbacks Sign Andrew Chafin

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Feb. 15, 2:40pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post provides details on the bonuses. Chafin will receive $250K by appearing in 55, 60, 65 and 70 games. There’s also a one-time $250K bonus for getting traded.

Feb. 15, 11:40am:  Chafin has passed his physical, and the Diamondbacks have formally announced his signing.

Feb. 11: The Diamondbacks have agreed to a reunion with Andrew Chafin, as the veteran left-hander will rejoin his original team on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2024 season.  Chafin will earn a $5.5MM salary in 2023, and Arizona’s club option is worth $7.25MM (with a $750K buyout).  Up to $1MM in bonus money is also available for Chafin if he makes at least 55 appearances in 2023.  Chafin is represented by Meister Sports Management.

Chafin was drafted 43rd overall by the D’Backs in 2011 and he spent his first seven MLB seasons in an Arizona uniform before being dealt to Chicago in a 2020 deadline swap.  That initial stint with the Diamondbacks led to mostly positive numbers, as Chafin logged a 3.68 ERA over 271 2/3 innings in his first go-around with Arizona, though he was struggling (albeit in the small sample size of the abbreviated 2020 season) at the time of his trade to the Cubs.

In the two full seasons since that trade, Chafin has taken things to another level while pitching for the Cubs, A’s and Tigers.  Over 126 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign, Chafin has a 2.29 ERA, 47.9% grounder rate, 7.5% walk rate, and 25.7% strikeout rate.  That above-average K% is further bolstered by very strong chase rates in the last two seasons and an 87th-percentile 31.4% whiff rate in 2022.  Chafin has also done a very good job of inducing soft contact.

On the basis of a good platform year with the Tigers in 2022, Chafin declined a $6.5MM player option for 2023 in order to seek out a longer-term contract in free agency.  Even though Chafin was one of the better relievers on the marker this winter, he couldn’t find a multi-year pact, and will now end up receiving slightly less (in guaranteed money) than the amount he rejected on his player option.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently wrote that Matt Strahm’s two-year, $15MM deal with the Phillies seemed to throw off the market for left-handed relievers, to the extent that Chafin, Matt Moore, and Zack Britton were all still looking for new deals despite quite a bit of interest from multiple clubs.

It puts some added pressure on Chafin to continue his good form as he enters his age-33 season, yet he’ll get to pitch in a comfortable and familiar environment in Arizona.  The deal becomes a two-year, $12.75MM pact if the Diamondbacks do exercise their club option, which still unexpectedly puts Chafin behind Strahm in total value.

From the Diamondbacks’ perspective, landing Chafin at a relative discount price is a very nice outcome for a team in sore need of bullpen help.  After the relief corps was a weak link in 2022, the D’Backs have responded by signing Miguel Castro and Scott McGough to MLB contracts, and brought in a wide array of experienced arms (including Jeurys Familia, Austin Brice, Zach McAlister, Jandel Gustave, Sam Clay, and several others) to camp on minor league deals.

Arizona heads into Spring Training with plenty of competition for bullpen jobs, so Chafin will be one of relatively few Diamondback pitchers that are assured of spots on the Opening Day roster.  With an unsettled closer’s position also up for grabs, Chafin could even be a candidate to make some saves, even though he has mostly worked as a setup man throughout his career.

MLBTR ranked Chafin 39th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and projected the left-hander for a two-year, $18MM deal.  Jurickson Profar and Michael Wacha are the final two players still unsigned from that 50-player list.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link) was the first to report the signing, and the general financial parameters.  Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter links) had the specific financial breakdown, and reported that the D’Backs held a club option.

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