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Aroldis Chapman

Reds Hope To Move Chapman Before Winter Meetings

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8:51pm: In a full column, Rosecrans has transcribed the entire quote from Jocketty:

“Boston was probably a player in it, we talked to them, but we didn’t get close to anything. We’ve been talking to clubs, but I don’t think there’s anything that’s close. Hopefully we get something done with somebody before the Winter Meetings. We’d like to get moving on some things.”

8:29pm: Aroldis Chapman’s name has been frequently mentioned in rumors over the past few months, and he figures to become a more pressing issue in the coming weeks. C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty says there’s “nothing close” with Chapman at this time. Jocketty, though, hopes to get something completed before the onset of the Winter Meetings, according to Rosecrans. This year’s Winter Meetings take place from Dec. 7-10 in Nashville, Tenn.

The Tigers, Red Sox, Astros, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Nationals have all been mentioned as potential trade partners, though the Tigers and Red Sox have, of course, already picked up late-inning relief help, which could remove them from the market. (Detroit acquired Francisco Rodriguez from the Brewers this morning while Boston landed Craig Kimbrel from the Padres in a weekend blockbuster.) Considering the caliber of arm in question, it’s highly likely that other clubs will enter the mix and have already done so while going unreported.

With one year of club control remaining at a projected $12.9MM rate, Chapman isn’t a long-term piece. But, he’s the type of overpowering arm that a team expecting to contend could acquire to significantly boost its playoff hopes, even if said team already has a closer in place. There’s a very strong case that Chapman is the best relief pitcher in baseball (he’s certainly among the top five or so), and adding him to a bullpen doesn’t remove the incumbent closer, but rather a team’s seventh-best reliever. The difference between Chapman and any club’s most disposable big league reliever, of course, is sizable.

Any club acquiring Chapman now likely feels that it’s acquiring a 2017 draft pick as well, considering the fact that Chapman is the rare reliever that represents an easy call when it comes to a potential qualifying offer. So long as Chapman doesn’t blow out his arm in 2016, it feels like a given that he’ll be worthy of a QO next November. Trading him this winter, then, would be Cincinnati’s best bet at maximizing a return for the soon-to-be 28-year-old Chapman, who owns a 1.90 ERA with 16.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and 145 saves over the past four seasons with the Reds.

Trade Market Notes: Tigers, Fernandez, Chavez, Belt

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The Tigers have canvassed the trade market for late-inning relievers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets, checking in on closers including Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. But the team is “not comfortable with [the] asking prices” it’s been quoted, says Rosenthal. Of course, Detroit has also been tied to several of the best-available free agent relievers. If a swap isn’t in the offing, presumably the club will look to the open market to build out its pen.

Here are some more trade market notes:

  • There was some buzz yesterday surrounding the possibility of the Marlins dangling stud righty Jose Fernandez in trades after Craig Mish of Sirius XM tweeted that there is a “growing sentiment” inside and outside the organization that a deal could occur this winter. That’s hardly an indication that a deal is likely, but it wouldn’t be surprising for the Fish at least to listen. The Scott Boras client has three years of control remaining and doesn’t seem likely to sign an extension. While he’ll be rather affordable — MLBTR projects only a $2MM arbitration salary because of his limited innings last year — he’d also be a hotly-pursued trade piece that could potentially bring back a huge return of more controllable talent at or near the big league level.
  • Marlins sources downplayed the likelihood of a Fernandez deal to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. And club president David Samson told Jackson: “Some players are more likely to be traded than others. Jose fits in the latter category. He is a Marlin for at least the next three years and hopefully longer and we look forward to the start of the 2016 season.” As MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro notes on Twitter, it is also worth bearing in mind that the club is in the middle of important TV rights fees negotiations. Dealing away one of the club’s two major stars wouldn’t figure to aid the club’s leverage in those talks.
  • The Athletics have fielded “significant trade interest” in righty Jesse Chavez, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. Oakland could consider dealing the 32-year-old swingman now that free agent lefty Rich Hill has signed, Passan adds. MLBTR projects Chavez to earn $4.7MM in his final trip through arbitration.
  • After extending Brandon Crawford yesterday, there’s still some uncertainty surrounding the Giants’ other key, 4+ service-time infielder by that first name. First baseman Brandon Belt could also be an extension candidated, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links), although he adds that the sides may not have progressed very far yet in talks. But there’s still also a possibility that Belt will be traded, per Schulman. While other teams may be somewhat hesitant since Belt ended the year with concussion issues, there are no reasons at present to believe that he’ll be limited going forward. And his consistent production would undoubtedly draw plenty of interest.

Reds Seek MLB-Ready Talent In Packages For Frazier, Chapman

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The Reds are known to be entertaining offers on all of their players, and ESPN’s Jayson Stark spoke to an exec with a rival club that is convinced third baseman Todd Frazier is “legitimately out there” as a trade piece, albeit only for a significant return (links to Twitter). According to Stark, the Reds are prioritizing young talent that is Major-League-ready in trades for either Frazier or closer Aroldis Chapman. ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote yesterday (Insider subscription required) that he spoke to an NL evaluator and was told that the Reds “aren’t pushing Frazier at all,” so it doesn’t sound like the Reds feel any urgency to move him (not that one would expect an aggressive push to move a player of Frazier’s caliber at this point in the year with multiple seasons of club control remaining).

Stark doesn’t list a preference between position players or hitters — perhaps because Cincinnati doesn’t truly have one; talent is talent — but most of the Reds’ top prospects are on the pitching side of the equation. Outside of top organizational prospect Jesse Winker, the team’s best hitting prospects are mostly in the lower levels of the minor leagues. For a team that is open to dealing its third baseman, second baseman (Brandon Phillips) and right fielder (Jay Bruce), that leaves plenty of openings around the diamond — especially considering Billy Hamilton’s underwhelming bat to this point in his career. (That’s not to suggest that Cincinnati has given up on Hamilton, but rather that he’ll need to hit more than he has at some point.)

The price to acquire Frazier will — and should — be steep. The reigning Home Run Derby champ is set to turn 30 years old in February and is coming off a pair of seasons in which he has combined to bat .262/.322/.479 with 64 homers and well-above-average defense at third base. Frazier is also affordable, as his 2016 salary is locked in at $7.5MM by virtue of a two-year deal signed prior to the 2015 season. He’ll be arbitration eligible once again next offseason and is a free agent after the 2017 season.

The primary red flags with Frazier will be his woeful 2015 second half and his production (or lack thereof) away from the hitter-friendly confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. Frazier was hitting .284/.337/.585 with 25 homers prior to the 2015 All-Star Game, but he batted just .224/.270/.390 with 10 homers in 72 second-half games. Checking out his home/road splits, Frazier has batted .281/.341/.537 at home over the past two seasons compared to .247/.304/.421 on the road. Many players tend to hit better at home regardless of park factor, but the notable discrepancy between Frazier’s home and road production figures to at least be some cause for concern for teams that play in pitcher-friendly environments.

Regardless of home/road splits, Frazier is capable, at worst, of producing league-average offense (he has a wRC+ of 99 on the road) with an above-average bat at third base. Two years of that skill set alone would have some value, but considering that’s more or less the floor on Frazier, while the ceiling is that of a legitimate superstar, multiple big-league-ready assets will probably need to be in play for Cincinnati to seriously consider parting with him.

Chapman is projected to earn $12.9MM in 2016 by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. That will be Chapman’s final year of club control before free agency, so with one year of control at top-of-the-market money, he comes with less trade value than Frazier. Nevertheless, it’s easy enough to envision a team being willing to part with an MLB-ready asset and another lower-level piece or two in order to secure a season of Chapman’s 100mph+ dominance.

Teams that could conceivably look for help at third base include the White Sox, Angels, Astros, Padres and possibly the Tigers, to name a few. There’s always a wide swath of teams seeking bullpen help — particularly when the reliever in question ranks among the game’s two or three best arms — and Chapman has recently been connected to the Yankees, Astros, Diamondbacks, Tigers and Red Sox (though Boston’s trade for Craig Kimbrel would certainly seem to take them out of the Chapman market).

More Reactions To And Effects Of The Craig Kimbrel Deal

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Earlier today, we collected a series of reactions to the Red Sox’ big move to acquire Craig Kimbrel from the Padres for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen. Here are a few more that have trickled in throughout the day.

  • As noted in our previous post, reviews of the Red Sox’ end of the deal by outside analysts have not all been enthusiastic. But CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam collected a number of takes from scouts and evaluators within the game who view the Sox’ decision to trade four prospects (including two highly rated ones in Margot and Guerra) somewhat more favorably. “I like Margot and Guerra. [They’re] middle-of-the-diamond kids with upside, (but) I doubt either becomes Betts or Bogaerts,” says one NL scout. “Prospects are nice, but in that market, give me Brady as QB over [Marcus] Mariota.” An NL evaluator points out that the Sox avoided giving up their very best prospects, like Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers. Not everyone loved the deal from Boston’s perspective, however. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski “is all about the short term and this trade made sense from that perspective,” says an MLB exec. “But if you do too many of the deals, you wake up in a few years like the Phillies … or the Tigers.”
  • One potential reason the Red Sox felt outfielder Margot was expendable was the presence of 2015 top draft choice Andrew Benintendi, who could move through the minors quickly, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets. In an accompanying article, MacPherson compares Benintendi to Mets rookie Michael Conforto, who rocketed through the minors, and notes that Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie all moved quickly through the Sox’ system after being drafted out of college, as Benintendi was. Benintendi hit .313/.416/.556 across two levels in his first taste of the minors this summer.
  • The Reds don’t feel the Padres’ trade of Kimbrel will have much effect on the market for Aroldis Chapman, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes. Chapman only has one year of control remaining, while Kimbrel has three, so although both are top-flight closers, they represent somewhat different types of commodities. “Kimbrel was a bit of a different animal than Chapman, in terms of club control,” says new Reds GM Dick Williams. “We didn’t feel like we missed out on a deal with them. There will be other teams that are interested in Chapman.”

Latest On Aroldis Chapman

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1:11pm: The Red Sox are indeed doing background work on Chapman, tweets Rosenthal, although that’s more a sign of genuine interest than proximity to a trade’s completion.

12:17pm: The Red Sox are being aggressive on many fronts, one of which is believed to be Chapman, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

11:13am: Aroldis Chapman has seen his name circulate in trade rumors for the past year and is widely known to be on the block once again, and Peter Gammons of MLB Network and GammonsDaily.com now reports that four people have insisted to him this morning that Chapman will be traded by the end of the coming weekend (Twitter link).

Chapman most prominently drew interest from the Astros, Yankees and Diamondbacks prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and he’s been speculatively connected to the Yankees, Red Sox and others this past week over the course of the GM Meetings. The Nationals and Tigers are also known to be seeking high-end bullpen help, and the Blue Jays have shown interest in the past as well. Gammons doesn’t specify which clubs are in the mix for Chapman at this time, but Cincinnati president of baseball ops Walt Jocketty more or less confirmed this week that he’s more or less open for business and will listen to talks on virtually any player on his club.

Chapman, with one year of club control remaining, is a natural trade chip for the rebuilding Reds. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the left-hander to earn a steep $12.9MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and while that’s top-of-the-market value for a relief arm, Chapman has undoubtedly proven himself worthy of that much, if not more. The 27-year-old struck out more than 15 hitters per nine innings for the fourth consecutive season in 2015 while averaging 99.5 mph on his fastball. Over the course of the four seasons in question, Chapman has a 1.90 ERA and has saved 33 or more games per season.

Central Notes: Hicks/Murphy, Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Oh, Chapman

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In an ESPN Insider analysis of today’s Twins/Yankees swap of center fielder Aaron Hicks and catcher John Ryan Murphy, Keith Law opines that both sides did quite well. While the Twins might have traded a bit more upside in exchange for stability, both clubs came away with a player who fit their current roster better than the piece they traded, says Law. Hicks has the potential to be an elite defender and is an immediate upgrade for the Yankees in a regular role solely based on his glove, while Murphy’s defense has steadily improved. Law feels that Murphy projects as an everyday catcher, though not a star-caliber one with tremendous offensive upside.

A few more notes from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Asked about the possibility of a contract extension for Cubs ace Jake Arrieta, agent Scott Boras told reporters, including ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers: “We’re going to be talking about that as the offseason unfolds, about Jake. I would say it’s fair to say the Cubs are pleased with Jake. And I’m sure Jake is happy playing there so we have to see where it goes.” Boras went on to state that Cubs’ ownership is in a new phase, having entered a “championship phase” after spending years in a rebuilding phase. “How owners react to that and what they do is a completely different thought process,” said Boras.
  • The Cubs still like Jeff Samardzija and aren’t ruling out a return for the right-hander, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote today. The Cubs, at one point, offered Samardzija $80-85MM on a contract extension, and Heyman notes that a similar sum may be a ballpark offer for what he can expect on the free-agent market.
  • The rebuilding Brewers won’t be players for top-of-the-market free agents, writes MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, but new GM David Stearns could still sign some free agents to fill the club’s voids in center field and at third base. Stearns said that Domingo Santana, who played some center field in 2015, is best-suited for a corner outfield spot, but he’s not against using Santana in center if needed. If no external center field option is acquired, Santana will man the position in 2016. At third base, Stearns spoke of a need to pursue some external options given the lack of depth the Brewers currently have. “There’s a chance [internal options] could take a step up in production, and we’re certainly also going to look for external options,” said Stearns.
  • The Indians are interested in Korean right-hander Seung-hwan Oh, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Cleveland bid “aggressively” on first baseman Byung-ho Park but fell short of the division-rival Twins’ bid. However, Oh won’t be subject to the posting system given his professional service time in Korea, and Oh would present a much-needed late-inning option for manager Terry Francona to put alongside Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw. Oh, nicknamed “the Final Boss” and “Stone Buddha” in Korea, is said to be traveling to the U.S. to meet with MLB clubs this week.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the team must consider playing on the free agent market in a way he typically avoids. As Goold notes, recent Cardinals’ free-agent plays for pitchers have either been short-term deals or re-signings of pitchers the team already knows (e.g. Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook). However, the loss of Lance Lynn and the potential departure of Lackey on a two- or three-year deal with another club could lead to atypical activity for the Cardinals. Mozeliak is bullish on a healthy return for Carlos Martinez, but the team still needs further certainty in the rotation. Said Mozeliak: “The opportunity to add is something that we have to consider. … We’ll see. I’d like to let the market develop before I weigh in on that.”
  • Aroldis Chapman will probably be the first domino to fall in the Reds’ impending fire sale, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Reds know that Chapman, a free agent after the season, will earn about $13MM via arbitration (MLBTR projects him at $12.9MM), and they need to maximize the return they can get on him by dealing him this offseason so that an acquiring team can make a qualifying offer following the 2016 campaign.

Reds Willing To Listen On All Players

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The Reds are willing to listen to trade offers for virtually any player on their roster, according to a pair of reports from C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. While there was some hesitation to embark on a complete fire sale prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, sources tell Rosenthal that owner Bob Castellini is now on board with the idea that a more dramatic retooling of the roster is needed.

“I don’t know if we’re in a position to say there’s any untouchables,” president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty told Rosecrans. “There’s certainly guys who would be much more difficult to move, but we have to be open minded to whatever we can do to improve the club for the long term.” Jocketty said the Reds have made it “pretty explicit” to other teams that they’re open for trades.

Jocketty told the pair of reporters that at entering the season and even this summer, the Reds “wanted to be somewhat protective of our club,” but the year didn’t pan out as hoped. Asked by Rosenthal if he was ready to trade Aroldis Chapman and Jay Bruce after backing down on trade scenarios involving that pair prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, Jocketty responded, “I would say probably.”

The availability of Chapman and Bruce has been widely expected, but Rosenthal further tweets that the Reds will even be open-minded on third baseman and reigning Home Run Derby champion Todd Frazier, who is under control for two more seasons.

Frazier, 30 in February, had a monstrous first half (.284/.337/.585, 25 homers) but slumped badly following the All-Star break (.220/.274/.390, 10 homers). His cumulative season batting line was still strong, and when paired with his plus defense at third base it led to a strong overall year worth about four wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. But, the second half was a nonetheless disappointing outcome for Frazier, who looked to be on the verge of a superstar-caliber breakout.

Frazier will earn $7.5MM in 2016 — the second season of a two-year contract signed to buy out his first two seasons of arbitration. The former supplemental first-round pick can’t become a free agent until after the 2017 season, so any club interested in trading for him would be picking up two years of club control at a highly reasonable rate.

Chapman is controlled for the 2016 season only, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $12.9MM salary in his final trip through the arbitration process. Bruce is owed $12.5MM in 2016 and has a $13MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2017 season.

Those three players represent the Reds’ most logical impact trade chips, as the remaining $199MM on Joey Votto’s contract is daunting even after his MVP-caliber rebound season in 2015. Votto’s contract also comes with a full no-trade clause, further complicating the thought of trading him. Brandon Phillips would make a logical trade candidate, as he, too, enjoyed a nice rebound season, making the remaining two years and $27MM on his contract look fairly reasonable. However, Phillips has 10-and-5 rights (10 years of service time, including five straight with his current team), thus affording him full trade veto power as well.

While Jocketty, of course, won’t tip his hand as to what he’d seek in return for pieces such as Chapman, Bruce and Frazier, it seems that the idea in Cincinnati is to aim for a quick turnaround as opposed to a lengthy Astros/Cubs-style rebuild. Said Jocketty to Rosecrans and Rosenthal: “…I think we really started at the deadline knowing that ’16 was going to be a transition year and ’17 and ’18 will be the timeframe we think will be able to be stronger and more competitive.”

AL Central Notes: Soria, Indians, Cueto, Glass

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The Tigers have contacted Joakim Soria’s agent about a possible return to Detroit, MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports, though they’ll be one of several teams in the mix for his services.  The reliever-needy Tigers have a distinct need for a solid bullpen arm, but Aroldis Chapman probably isn’t a fit since Detroit aren’t keen on dealing from their just-rebuild farm system to match the Reds’ high asking price for the ace closer.  Here’s some more from around the AL Central…

  • Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (via Twitter) that he will look into trading a starting pitcher in order to improve elsewhere, though it’s not necessarily something that he’d like to do.  The Tribe received a lot of interest in their young starters last summer; Carlos Carrasco drew particular attention and Cleveland in fact almost dealt him to the Blue Jays.
  • While the Indians may not be able to spend big on free agents, what they can offer is playing time at third, first or in the outfield, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (Insider-only link).  This might be significant in helping the Tribe land a lower-tier free agent veteran; Olney suggests the likes of Juan Uribe, Justin Morneau, Mike Napoli and Will Venable as possible fits.
  • Johnny Cueto’s agent, Bryce Dixon, also Duquette and Bowden (Twitter links) to discuss his client’s free agency.  Dixon expressed confidence that teams will see that Cueto his healthy after viewing his medicals, and if Cueto had been hurt, he wouldn’t have been able to deliver such strong results for the Royals in two of his postseason outings.
  • Royals owner David Glass deserves credit for standing behind GM Dayton Moore during tough times, Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com writes.  Moore’s tenure is the fourth longest among current general managers behind Brian Sabean of the Giants (now executive VP of baseball operations), Brian Cashman of the Yankees, and Jon Daniels of the Rangers.  Those executives, however, enjoyed either quick success or quicker returns on rebuilds than Moore, as the Royals didn’t even post a winning record until Moore’s seventh full season running the team.
  • Joe Mauer will be 36 when his current contract expires in three years, but the Twins first baseman tells Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that he hasn’t given any thought about retirement at that time, only that he “probably” wants to play “as long as I can.”

MLBTR’s Zach Links also contributed to this post

AL East Notes: Orioles, Rays, Red Sox, Greinke

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The Orioles are generally patient in the free agent market under GM Dan Duquette, writes Rich Dubroff of CSN Baltimore. Duquette’s biggest free agent signings came late in the 2013-2014 offseason when he inked Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez. Given that 20 players were extended qualifying offers, Baltimore could once again wait to see if any players fall through the cracks. In my opinion, there are some risks with this strategy. While buying low close to the season has its advantages, it can leave a player under-prepared. Additionally, several clubs appear well positioned to play the waiting game. Duquette could find an unusual amount of competition if he waits to do his shopping until late-January.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Former Orioles Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters may take a patient approach to finding a new contract, writes Dubroff. All three Scott Boras clients received a qualifying offer. In the case of Davis, the Orioles would like to re-sign him and plan to make a competitive offer. However, Dubroff wonders how long Baltimore will allow Davis to shop for offers before they move onto alternatives. Meanwhile, the market for Wieters may not be particularly robust with the White Sox, Astros, and Dodgers as possible fits. Reliever Darren O’Day was not given a qualifying offer, and he could be in line for a four-year contract.
  • The Rays made an early splash on the trade market, and they’re obviously not done, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The club has narrowed its focus for the offseason but remains open to discussing any player. Topkin notes that free agent activity will wait until later in the offseason “when their currency of playing time can be worth more than money to players still on the market.” Trade talks figure to revolve around first baseman James Loney. He’s owed $8MM next season. Corner infield prospect Richie Shaffer appears ready for a high profile role if Loney is dealt elsewhere.
  • The Red Sox currently have the 12th pick in the 2016 amateur draft, and it may influence some of their free agent decisions, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Under the qualifying offer system, the earliest pick ever surrendered to sign a free agent is the 13th (Padres, James Shields). The club would probably be willing to cough up a pick for a top free agent like Zack Greinke, Davis, or Jordan Zimmermann. However, pitchers like Chen, Marco Estrada, and others might not offer enough upside to forego the early pick. Per President Dave Dombrowski, “I think it’s a case-by-case basis and you analyze that based upon the player you have a chance to sign.“
  • As a means of retaining their first pick, the Red Sox may attempt to trade for starting pitching, writes Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com. Trade candidates are harder to predict because it’s unclear which players are really on the table. McAdam believes that A’s starter Sonny Gray, Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco, and San Diego’s Tyson Ross are logical targets. The club could also chase a top reliever like Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman.
  • Greinke may not be a fit in Boston, opines Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. Greinke actually hit similarly to Pablo Sandoval on a rate basis and reportedly enjoys batting regularly. There’s also the matter of home division. The NL West includes some of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. As such, the Dodgers and Giants are a good fit. Pitchers in the AL East have to survive Fenway and three homer-happy venues in Toronto, New York, and Baltimore. That could hold back the Red Sox in negotiations for other top pitchers like David Price too. Gammons does see a possible trade match with the White Sox for ace Chris Sale. Blake Swihart could potentially serve as a centerpiece.

NL Central Notes: Schwarber, Park, Chapman

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ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers dispels the notion that the Cubs will (or even that they should) shop Kyle Schwarber this offseason due to his perceived defensive shortcomings. While Schwarber undeniably struggled in the outfield this postseason, Rogers notes that no one was clamoring for such a move in the regular season. Schwarber logged about 300 innings in the outfield during the regular season, and while his inexperience showed, he wasn’t egregiously bad over that sample of games, either. It’s hardly a representative sample, but Rogers notes that extrapolating Schwarber’s Defensive Runs Saved mark to a full season would leave him about 10 to 13 runs below average, and his bat is capable of making up the difference. He also points out that with his work ethic, Schwarber has plenty of time to improve at a position that’s still pretty new to him. I’d agree that the notion of trading Schwarber — which I’ve heard from many fans — is an overreaction, to say the least. Over the course of a full season between the outfield corners and behind the plate, I’d expect Schwarber’s bat to make him a plenty valuable player, even if he doesn’t develop into an everyday catcher or above-average outfield defender.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review examines whether or not the Pirates should be bidders for Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park. Sawchik spoke to former MLB scout Daniel Kim, who said that the posting fee for Park could be at least double the $5MM Pittsburgh bid to secure negotiation rights with Park’s former Nexen Heroes teammate, Jung Ho Kang. Sawchik writes that as many as 20 teams have scouted Park, with the Rangers having sent “top executives” to watch him. Sawchik also points out the presence of top prospect Josh Bell, who isn’t far from the Majors and projects as a power-hitting first baseman himself. While Bell could be a trade chip, the Pirates also need to address the starting rotation, so perhaps spending money on Park while an internal option is present isn’t the optimal use of their resources. The Pirates, like other MLB clubs, don’t have too long to decide, as Park will be posted next Monday with bids due by next Friday.
  • The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Bill Brink writes that the Pirates have at least cursory interest in Park, reminding that they applied for credentials to watch him earlier this season. However, he also notes that Kang’s success will probably boost the market’s valuation of Park, possibly pricing him out of the range of Pittsburgh, who also has $8MM committed to Mike Morse next year. Earlier today, Sawchik examined at length how Kang’s success could drive up the market for Park.
  • While no one’s quite certain whether or not the Reds will trade Aroldis Chapman this winter, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Nationals would be at the forefront of trade talks for Cincinnati’s All-Star closer this offseason should they listen to offers. The D-Backs, of course, pursued Chapman aggressively prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, while the Nats could have a very different-looking bullpen next year. Drew Storen seems like an obvious trade candidate, and the Nationals will almost certainly shop Jonathan Papelbon this winter as well.
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