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Avisail Garcia

Brewers Interested In Avisail Garcia

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Along with the previously reported Rays and Marlins, the Brewers have interest in free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

As a member of the Rays, the 28-year-old Garcia spent the majority of last season in right field, where the Brewers employ the incredible Christian Yelich. However, the club’s not nearly as well off in left, especially after trading Trent Grisham to the Padres. Although he doesn’t carry much experience at the position, Garcia could fit in there for Milwaukee. Based on his 2019 performance, Garcia would be an upgrade over Ben Gamel and could enable Ryan Braun to primarily handle first base, where the Brewers don’t have an obvious answer.

Garcia, who has spent almost all of his MLB tenure with the White Sox, has had an up-and-down career to this point. In fact, he has been a replacement-level player or worse across a few seasons. However, Garcia performed well last season in Tampa Bay, which led MLBTR to predict he’d land a two-year, $12MM contract in free agency.

Over 530 trips to the plate as a Ray, Garcia slashed .282/.332/.464 with 20 home runs en route to a 112 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR. While the big-bodied Garcia doesn’t look like a speedster, he stole 10 bases, ranked in the 90th percentile in Statcast’s sprint speed metric and acquitted himself well in the field. In 869 innings as a defender last season, Garcia saved a pair of runs, posted a 2.2 Ultimate Zone Rating and finished plus-3 in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.

Marlins Met With Yasiel Puig

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As they continue to pursue outfield pop, the Marlins held a meeting recently with free agent Yasiel Puig, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That adds another intriguing possibility to the club’s widespread search.

The Marlins have been connected to quite a few corner outfielders to this point of the winter, both via trade and free agency. During the Winter Meetings, the club also chatted with the representatives of Avisail Garcia and Corey Dickerson — two of the top alternative corner outfielders remaining in free agency. Kole Calhoun and others are also reportedly under consideration.

Puig seems to be a fascinating target for the Miami organization. The Cuban star would certainly inject some charisma into the roster and suit the club’s desire to improve the appeal of its product for the local fanbase. As we noted in our ranking of the top 50 free agents, however, there has seemed to be one major roadblock: the highly strained relationship of Puig and Don Mattingly, the former Dodgers skipper who now helms the Fish. Evidently, there’s at least a willingness to explore a surprising reunion.

Whether the sit-down leaves Puig as a target or took him out of contention isn’t really known. Apart from his propensity for hijinks — sometimes endearing, other times not — Puig is a bit of a high-risk/high-reward player from a pure baseball perspective. He turned in approximately average overall results with the bat in 2019 and 2016, but was about twenty percent over the league mean in the two intervening seasons. Puig has a rifle in right field and has at times graded as an elite defender, but was average in the eyes of defensive metrics in 2019.

Rays Exploring Outfield Additions

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The Rays are looking at a variety of possibilities for improving their outfield mix, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

The Tampa Bay organization previously struck a deal that shipped out one outfielder (Tommy Pham) and brought in another (Hunter Renfroe). While there had been some whispers of hiccups in the deal, it is now fully locked up, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter).

While there isn’t exactly a new hole to be filled, then, the Rays are still looking to bolster a unit that is now missing Avisail Garcia and his 530 plate appearances from 2019. Garcia is, as previously rumored, one of the ongoing targets, per Sherman.

In addition to exploring a return for Garcia, the Rays have also turned their gaze to the west. A pair of left-handed-hitting Japanese players, rangy center fielder Shogo Akiyama and slugging corner outfielder Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, are each said to carry appeal. While they’re quite different players — from one another and from Garcia — it seems the Rays can conceive of ways that all would fit into their ever-adaptable roster.

Marlins Notes: Park Dimensions, Outfield, Catcher, Villar, Aguilar

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Changes are coming to Marlins Park, as the team announced Wednesday that the fences will be moved in and new synthetic grass will be installed prior to Opening Day 2020. “In going through the process of evaluating the playing surface at Marlins Park in 2019, we set out to find a solution to combat the challenges we have experienced with growing natural grass in Marlins Park,” CEO Derek Jeter said in announcing a partnership with Shaw Sports Turf.

As far as the park dimensions, the center-field and right-center field walls will each be moved in by 12 feet, making the distance to straightaway center an even 400 feet, while the right-center power alley will now be 387 feet deep. “We made the decision to adjust the distance of the outfield fence, which will now be more in line with the field dimensions you see across many of today’s ballparks,” said Jeter.

Here’s more out of Miami…

  • The Marlins are looking for free-agent outfielders who are willing to sign one- and two-year contracts as they look to bolster their lineup in 2020, writes Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro lists Avisail Garcia and Yasiel Puig as potential fits for the club, whereas Nicholas Castellanos, another appealing target, is likelier to secure a lengthier pact. Puig, of course, has a long and checkered history with manager Don Mattingly dating back to the pair’s days with the Dodgers, although presumably if talks between the two sides begin in earnest, they’ll work to bury whatever hard feelings (if any) still exist. Garcia, meanwhile, was linked to Miami last week, and the fit makes plenty of sense on paper; MLBTR predicted that Garcia would land with the Fish when ranking our top 50 free agents at the outset of the offseason. Recently non-tendered Steven Souza Jr., too, “will be explored” as a possibility, per Frisaro. The former Rays right fielder missed most of the past two seasons with the D-backs due to injury but topped 30 homers back in 2017.
  • Frisaro also suggests that the Marlins will be in the market for a part-time catcher to pair with Jorge Alfaro, pointing out that free agent Francisco Cervelli and Jeter were teammates when Cervelli first arrived on the scene with the Yankees. The 33-year-old Cervelli’s career has been slowed considerably by concussions in recent seasons — including just a 48-game effort in 2019 due to concussion symptoms — but he hit .259/.378/.431 with the Pirates as recently as 2018 and has been an on-base machine throughout his career.
  • The Marlins plan to utilize newly acquired Jonathan Villar in a super utility role rather than play him at just one position, as Mattingly explained to Kyle Sielaff and Paul Severino in a podcast appearance. In addition to his customary second base and shortstop, Villar figures to be deployed at third base and in the outfield at times. Jesus Aguilar, meanwhile, will be given ample opportunity to cement himself as the Marlins’ primary first baseman next season, Mattingly suggested. A return to 2018 form for Aguilar, who hit .274/.352/.539 with 35 homers that season, would be a particularly positive development for Miami. Unlike Villar, who is a free agent next winter, Aguilar can be controlled through the 2022 season.

AL East Notes: Avisail, Pedroia, Johnson, Orioles

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Avisail Garcia has been a popular figure in the first weeks of free agency, and his list of suitors includes Garcia’s most recent organization.  “There is interest, and engagement” from the Rays in a reunion with Garcia, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, updating his own report from late October that originally detailed the potential for another contract between the two sides.  Garcia was a nice low-cost buy for Tampa last offseason, as the outfielder inked a one-year, $3.5MM deal with the Rays and hit .282/.332/.464 with 20 homers (good for a 111 OPS+ and 112 wRC+) while posting slightly above-average hard-hit ball numbers and defensive metrics in right field.

This solid but unspectacular season might keep Garcia within Tampa Bay’s rather limited price range, as MLBTR predicted only a two-year, $12MM deal for Garcia this winter.  A bigger question could be where Garcia fits into a Rays outfield that already has Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows, though the right-handed hitting Garcia is a nice complement amidst lefty swingers like Meadows and first base/DH options like Ji-Man Choi and Nate Lowe.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • While Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia intends to resume his career in 2020 after multiple knee surgeries, “the most optimistic projection for Pedroia would be playing for the Sox in late May or June,” Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe hears from multiple sources.  Pedroia has appeared in only nine games over the last two seasons, and with so much uncertainty around his availability, second base is a clear area of need for the team this winter.
  • Both Abraham and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford were surprised by Boston’s decision to waive left-hander Brian Johnson earlier this week, though Johnson remained with the Red Sox (and outrighted off the 40-man roster) after going unclaimed.  Johnson is also out of minor league options, which dimmed his value to other teams, Abraham hears from an evaluator.  The timing of the move may have been tactical on the club’s part, Bradford notes, as Johnson was waived not long after other teams had set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and thus didn’t have the space to spare on a southpaw who pitched well in 2017-18 before struggling last year.  The transaction caught Johnson himself by surprise, as he told Bradford, though “in the grand scheme of things I’m just not on the 40-man.  My goals don’t change.  I have the same goal going into spring training, fighting for a job either in the bullpen or starting.”
  • Some of the offseason’s early moves have seemingly removed two potential Orioles trade partners for Trey Mancini or Mychal Givens, the Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli writes.  Mancini could have been a possible long-term piece for a White Sox team that appears ready to start competing, but Chicago’s extension with Jose Abreu and signing of Yasmani Grandal (as a part-time first baseman and DH, to go with his catching duties) would seem to limit Mancini to the outfield for the Sox, a less-than-ideal defensive fit.  As for Givens, the Braves had interest in the right-hander at the trade deadline but have now addressed their bullpen needs by signing Will Smith and re-signing Chris Martin and Darren O’Day.

Marlins Interested In Avisail Garcia

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The Marlins are among the teams pursuing free agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). But they’re only one of “many” interested organizations, per Heyman.

In our top 50 free agent ranking, we predicted that Garcia would end up with the Miami organization. But we didn’t see an exceptionally strong market developing for his services. While Garcia has some real positives working in his favor, he has some limitations and there aren’t all that many teams with obvious need in the corner outfield.

The real question is whether multiple teams will dream on Garcia’s skillset. Over the past three years, he’s a .288/.337/.473 hitter over 1,476 plate appearances. That’s substantially above average. Garcia graded as a high-quality performer in the field and has exceptional speed — not that you’d necessarily know it from his work on the bases. (Fangraphs grades him a -3.5 run runner.)

You can also focus on the negatives if you prefer. Garcia doesn’t hit a lot of home runs and doesn’t walk much. Instead, he’s highly reliant on his hard contact finding gaps. He sported a .392 BABIP in his productive 2017 season but dipped to .271 in a down 2018 effort.

As Heyman notes, some teams may well see greater value in Garcia than the other top right-handed-hitting corner options. Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos will presumably seek a fair bit more money, but neither is overwhelmingly better than Garcia. Yasiel Puig is also an option, but some organizations may not have interest in his hijinks. (The Marlins seem like a great fit for Puig but for his rocky history with manager Don Mattingly.)

Latest On Rays’ Free Agents

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The Rays have begun the offseason facing the potential exits of three notable free agents in catcher Travis d’Arnaud, outfielder Avisail Garcia and infielder/outfielder Eric Sogard. The low-budget club’s interested in re-signing all three, though any new deal would have to come at the right price, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

Among the trio, it may be d’Arnaud who’s in line for the richest contract. A somewhat lucrative offseason payday for d’Arnaud looked highly unlikely when the Rays acquired him from the Dodgers for $100K back on May 10. D’Arnaud was then coming off a fleeting run in Los Angeles, which claimed the former star prospect off waivers from the Mets after a disappointing, injury-filled tenure in New York.

Once d’Arnaud got to Tampa Bay, not only did his health hold up, but he gave the team a solution behind the plate. The 30-year-old slashed a respectable .263/.323/.459 with 16 home runs in 365 plate appearances as a Ray. He also threw out 28 percent of would-be base stealers, though Baseball Prospectus graded d’Arnaud as a below-average overall defender. Still, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see d’Arnaud land a two-year contract worth at least $5MM per season in the coming weeks, especially considering he’s among the most impressive choices in a so-so class of free-agent catchers.

Aside from d’Arnaud, Jason Castro and Robinson Chirinos, it’s slim pickings beyond the undisputed top backstop available, Yasmani Grandal. The lack of appealing and affordable alternatives could make it all the more important for the Rays to re-sign d’Arnaud, as Mike Zunino may be a non-tender candidate after a horrid year and Michael Perez has just 135 big league plate trips to his name.

Meanwhile, even if they lose Garcia, the Rays look to be in better shape in the corner outfield than they are at catcher. Austin Meadows and Tommy Pham should make for a more-than-capable top two in 2020, though Garcia looks like a solid option in his own right. After signing a $3.5MM guarantee with the Rays last winter, the former White Sox outfielder batted .282/.332/.464 with 20 homers and 10 steals across 530 PA. Along the way, the 28-year-old, righty-hitting Garcia held his own against both same-handed and southpaw pitchers alike. He was also something of a Statcast favorite, evidenced in part by a .344 expected weighted on-base average (compared to a .338 real wOBA) and a sprint speed that surprisingly ranked in the majors’ 90th percentile. The big-bodied Garcia’s athleticism helped him log quality production in the outfield, where he accounted for a pair of Defensive Runs Saved, a 2.2 Ultimate Zone Rating and three Outs Above Average.

Despite his strong work as a Ray, Garcia’s likely to face skepticism on the market from at least some teams. Age and 2019 performance are on Garcia’s side, but he hasn’t been particularly steady during his career. The White Sox, despite obvious holes in their outfield, non-tendered Garcia just a year ago. It was an understandable decision at the time, as Garcia was then coming off a replacement-level 2018 showing. Furthermore, in five of his seven extensive major league seasons, Garcia has racked up less than 1.0 fWAR. On the other hand, he was a 4.2-fWAR player in 2017. And while this year’s 1.8 doesn’t look spectacular, it’s satisfactory in light of the relatively low-cost deal Tampa Bay gave him.

Garcia’s now a member of a free-agent corner outfield class that also features the likes of Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Corey Dickerson, Yasiel Puig and Brett Gardner. Sogard, meantime, is part of a jam-packed group of noteworthy unsigned players at the keystone, but he quietly enjoyed one of the best 2019 seasons of any free-agent second basemen. The 33-year-old easily recorded a career campaign, hitting .290/.353/.457 with 13 HRs and 2.6 fWAR over 442 PA. While Sogard did see his offensive production dive after the Rays acquired him from the Blue Jays in July (.839 OPS versus .732), he was still an adequate option in Tampa Bay.

Sogard’s just an offseason removed from having to settle for a minor league contract, but he just made a legitimate case for a guaranteed deal this winter. Whether the Rays will be the team that gives Sogard his next pact is up in the air, though. Brandon Lowe’s sure to start at second for the club in 2020 after an excellent but injury-plagued rookie season, but there could still be room for Sogard in a multi-positional role.

Latest On Tyler Glasnow, 3 Other Injured Rays

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It’s unclear whether injured Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow will be able to pitch again this year, but he isn’t giving up on his season, Juan Toribio of MLB.com reports. Glasnow, out since May 10 with forearm troubles, has been throwing from 90 feet of late and is set for a bullpen session Monday. The soon-to-be 26-year-old told Toribio he feels “really good.”

The Rays’ expectation was that Glasnow would only sit out four to six weeks when he incurred his injury in a start against the Yankees, but he has suffered multiple setbacks during his recovery process. Those issues have helped derail what looked like a brilliant campaign in the making for Glasnow, a 2018 trade deadline acquisition from the Pirates who dominated out of the gates this season. The towering Glasnow posted 48 1/3 innings and eight starts of 1.86 ERA/2.31 FIP ball with 10.24 K/9, 1.68 BB/9 and a 51.7 percent groundball rate prior to hitting the IL.

Glasnow’s ongoing absence is far from the only adversity the Rays’ rotation has faced this season. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell went to the shelf three weeks ago on account of arthroscopic left elbow surgery, while the team sent Yonny Chirinos to the IL on Aug. 5 with a finger injury. On paper, a healthy Glasnow, Snell and Chirinos would aid in giving the Rays one of the sport’s top rotation. As things stand, though, they’re lacking traditional starters. Charlie Morton has been superb this year, however, while Ryan Yarbrough has been eminently effective as a starter and a reliever. Their efforts have helped keep injury-laden Tampa Bay in contention, as the club’s 71-52 and a game up on the American League’s second wild-card spot.

The Rays are also missing a few banged up position players, including infielders Brandon Lowe and Joey Wendle and outfielder Avisail Garcia. There’s encouraging news on all three, though, as Toribio relays.

While Lowe still doesn’t have a timetable for a return, he is progressing in his rehab assignment. The 24-year-old second baseman has been out since July 4 with a right shin contusion, which has deprived the Rays of one of baseball’s premier rookies. As with Lowe, it’s not clear when Wendle will be ready to come back, but he also seems to be trending in the right direction as he works back from the wrist injury he suffered in late July. Likewise, things are looking up for Garcia. The Rays placed Garcia on the IL on Wednesday with the dreaded oblique strain, though an MRI on Friday revealed it isn’t especially serious. The club’s hopeful Garcia won’t miss more than the minimum of 10 days, according to manager Kevin Cash.

Rays Place Avisail Garcia On 10-Day IL, Recall Jose De Leon

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The Rays announced today that they have placed outfielder Avisail Garcia on the 10-day injured list with an oblique strain. To take his place on the active roster, the club has promoted righty Jose De Leon.

There had been hope that the oblique injury would not prove serious enough to require an IL stint at all. But it seems the club found reason to believe today that Garcia would need a substantial rest.

The opening of active roster space will facilitate the return of De Leon to the majors after a long time away. Once a top prospect, the 27-year-old made just one appearance in Tampa Bay following his acquisition in the 2016-17 offseason.

De Leon ultimately missed all of the 2018 season owing to Tommy John surgery. He has worked back to health this year. In 14 appearances at Triple-A, he carries a 3.65 ERA with 13.0 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 — quite a nice showing in the high run-scoring environment of the International League.

Can Avisail Garcia Continue To Out-Mash The Competition?

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Avisail Garcia is destroying much of what he’s being thrown by Major League pitchers. After striding to the plate 208 times, he has an even .300 batting average, 11 dingers, and a healthy 138 wRC+.  That’s awfully good value for the Rays, who paid him all of $3.5MM for one season of work.

There’s a reason they got Garcia for that amount: his substandard, injury-filled 2018 season, at the end of which he was non-tendered by the White Sox. It really didn’t come as a surprise when the South Siders cut bait and the Tampa Bay org picked up Garcia for less than half his projected arbitration salary.

The past is the past, so far as the Rays are concerned. What matters right now is that Garcia is seeing red and putting his contract in the black. But what happens when he returns to the open market this coming winter? We’ve still got a lot of plate appearances to watch, but what if he keeps up something like his current pace?

It isn’t as if he hasn’t done it before. Back in 2017, Garcia carried a .330/.380/.506 slash over 561 plate appearances — good for a 137 wRC+ that’s a near match for his current output. Then again, he leaned on a whopping .392 batting average on balls in play to reach that number, which plummeted back to .271 in the ensuing season while he tried to play through a hamstring injury. And he had posted underwhelming numbers previously. Garcia doesn’t stand out at all in terms of plate discipline, with roughly average strikeout numbers (despite huge swinging-strike rates) and slightly below-average walk rates for his career.

When he’s hot, he’s hot … not/not. Is that all there is to it? Should teams be wary of putting too much stock in his current upswing? Perhaps. The K/BB numbers are in line with his personal mean. There were some lean years in the past. Then again, it’s not as if there aren’t any changes worthy of attention in Garcia’s profile.

Statcast has picked up on quite a few interesting observations. Garcia is putting the barrel on the ball more than about nine in ten of his peers. He carries a healthy and career-best 46.5% hard-hit rate. His average exit velo is up to 91.4 mph after sitting just over 90 for the prior three seasons. Put it together, and Statcast actually thinks Garcia has been unlucky, crediting him with a .392 xwOBA that exceeds his .379 wOBA.

Garcia is doing things a bit differently than in the past. He’s putting the ball in the air more often than ever, with a launch angle that sits at 11.1 degrees after a third-straight year-over-year gain. His 1.24 GB/FB rate is by far the lowest of his career. (The leaguewide reduction in sinkers is likely playing a role, as Garcia is suddenly seeing half as many as he had before.) The flies are flying quite nicely, too. Just 2.0% are harmlessly dropping into infielders’ gloves, while 20+% are going over the outfield wall (about the same rate as they did for him last year).

There’s no question: Garcia is an increasingly interesting upcoming free agent asset. Garcia is enjoying a lofty .346 BABIP, but that’s not an outlandish number — particularly for a player who owns a .331 career mark. He’s even trending up defensively (+3 DRS, +3.4 UZR) and on the bases (six steals). With 1.6 fWAR in the bank, he’s on pace for a ~5 WAR campaign.

And we saved one of the best parts for last: Garcia hasn’t even turned 28 years of age. Okay, he’s just a week away from his birthday. Still, teams pondering a purchase this coming winter will get to plug a 28-year-old slugger onto their 2020 Opening Day roster.

What’s most interesting about Garcia’s free agent case is the presence of three other remarkably similar players: Marcell Ozuna of the Cardinals, Yasiel Puig of the Reds, and Nicholas Castellanos of the Tigers. Their numbers obviously vary a bit, but over the past three seasons they have landed within a fairly narrow band.

All four are right-handed hitters with roughly league-average plate discipline (Ozuna and Puig are the best of the trio in K/BB) and good but not exceptional power (Garcia sits just under .200 ISO, the other three just over). Most carry high batting averages (excepting Puig, though he has done so in the past) and well-regarded corner outfield glovework (Castellanos is the exception, though he has graded as a palatable performer this year). They’re also all rather youthful free agents; Castellanos is the youngest, having just turned 27 in March, with Ozuna and Puig already past their 28th birthdays. All have had their ups and downs.

There’s more to consider than the past three seasons — Ozuna, in particular, has a much better and more consistent overall track record — but Garcia lines up rather well on a rate basis in that span. And he has handily outperformed the other three in the present season, with only Ozuna (121 wRC+) turning in above-average offensive output to this point.

In the latest iteration of MLBTR’s 2019-20 free agent power rankings, Ozuna placed third and Puig landed the tenth spot, while Castellanos drew an honorable mention. It’s plenty understandable that my wise and able boss, Tim Dierkes, mentioned those three while excluding Garcia. At that point, Garcia carried a decent but uninspiring stat line. But as the sample has grown, so has Garcia’s case to be considered among this group. Indeed, given Puig’s struggles at the plate this seasons and a tepid early showing from Castellanos — with league-average offense and marginal defense, he’s a full win behind Garcia — it’s possible Garcia will be the top challenger to Ozuna in this market class.

We’ll see how things shake out over the coming months, but Garcia’s reemergence helps to create an interesting dynamic. The broader free agent class is rather uninspiring, owing to a round of major extensions, but it’s interesting to see this foursome of youthful, rather analogous players entering free agency at the same time. Each will drive his own earning power on the field over the final two-thirds of the season, though the markets will surely intertwine. Garcia has a long way to go to securing a quality multi-year deal — in addition to producing, he’ll need to avoid further hamstring problems — but he has already done enough to this point to make that a realistic possibility.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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