NL Central Notes: McLain, Horton, Jones
After finishing fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2023, Matt McLain‘s sophomore season has thus far been a wash, as a shoulder surgery in March has kept him off the field. McLain was set to begin a minor rehab assignment tomorrow but those plans have now been put on hold, Reds manager David Bell told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer and other reporters. McLain suffered a stress reaction in his ribcage area last week and was assigned a shutdown period of 3-7 days, which has now stretched to beyond the intended start date of the rehab assignment.
As recently as Thursday, McLain “was having some progress and feeling better,” as Bell relayed about a text message sent to him from the infielder. The short timeframe of the initial shutdown period would seem to suggest that the rib injury isn’t as serious as it might sound, yet basically any setback at this point adds extra doubt about McLain’s ability to return to action before the 2024 season is over. He’ll need a pretty lengthy rehab period to get fully ramped up after his layoff, so even if McLain is able to start playing relatively soon, his return to the majors looks like it’ll be in September at the earliest. The 57-61 Reds are on the outskirts of an NL wild card race that is still relatively compact at the moment, so the team will need all the help it can get (including whatever McLain can provide) if Cincinnati has a shot of leapfrogging the field and snagging a playoff berth.
More from the NL Central…
- Cade Horton also suffered a setback in his rehab from the subscapularis strain that has kept the Cubs pitching prospect off the mound since late May, Cubs president of operations Jed Hoyer told the Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro. As a result, Horton’s 2024 campaign is likely over, as Hoyer said the right-hander probably wouldn’t start throwing again until after the minor league season is finished. Selected seventh overall in the 2022 draft, Horton is considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, though his first taste of Triple-A action resulted in an ugly 7.50 ERA over 18 innings (five starts). Between the shoulder strain, this latest setback, and a Tommy John surgery in his college days, Horton has already had to deal with a lot of injury concerns, and his MLB debut will now have to wait until 2025 at the earliest.
- In the first start of his minor league rehab assignment, Jared Jones threw 47 pitches over 2 2/3 innings for Triple-A Indianapolis last Thursday. Pirates GM Ben Cherington said during his weekly radio show today (hat tip to Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) that the plan is for Jones to having another rehab outing on Wednesday with a higher pitch count, and the Bucs will decide from there whether or not Jones could be ready to return from the 15-day injured list. Jones suffered a Grade 2 strain in his right lat during his last MLB start on July 3, thus necessitating a lengthy IL stint. Somewhat overshadowed by the Paul Skenes phenomenon, Jones has had a big rookie year of his own, posting a 3.56 ERA over his first 91 big league innings and emerging as another key building block of the Pittsburgh rotation.
Cubs Prospect Cade Horton Shut Down With Subscapularis Strain
Cubs pitching prospect Cade Horton has a moderate subscapularis strain, reports Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune on X. The righty will be shut down for three to four weeks and then will have to build back up at that point.
Horton, 22, is one of the best pitching prospects in the sport and may have been trending towards a major league debut this summer, but the odds of that have clearly been reduced by this injury. Selected seventh overall in the 2022 draft, Horton tore through three levels of the minors last year. He tossed 88 1/3 innings between Single-A, High-A and Double-A with a 2.65 earned run average. He struck out 33.5% of batters faced in the process while limiting walks to a 7.7% clip.
Based on that strong professional debut, he was a consensus top 50 prospect coming into 2024. Baseball America gave him the #25 slot, FanGraphs put him at #18 and ESPN at #30, while Keith Law of The Athletic had him at #49.
Here in 2024, he went back to Double-A but carved up opponents in four starts. He tossed 16 1/3 innings in those, only allowing two earned runs. He struck out 18 batters and gave out just two walks.
He was then promoted to Triple-A in May while the major league rotation was dealing with a few issues. Justin Steele, Jordan Wicks and Kyle Hendricks were all on the injured list at that time, with Hendricks also struggling badly prior to his IL stint.
With Horton charging into Triple-A and the major league rotation treading water, the stars seemed to be aligning for him to be pitching at Wrigley in short order. But his first five Triple-A starts didn’t go well, with 15 earned runs allowed in 18 innings. It’s possible that the injury started to creep on him and impacted his results, as his 13.6% walk rate demonstrated an uncharacteristic lack of control.
Regardless of when the injury started bugging him, the poor Triple-A results and this shutdown will obviously erase any momentum towards a major league debut for the time being. Since he’s going to be shut down for most of June, he’ll likely need the majority of July to build back up. That aligns roughly with the July 30 trade deadline, which will be an interesting situation to monitor for Cubs fans.
The club performed well in April but struggled in May, currently sitting on a 30-31 record. That’s good enough to hold the final Wild Card spot in the National League at the moment but there are seven clubs within four games of catching Cubs, making it a fairly tenuous position.
Assuming the club hangs around the postseason picture, they could look for starting pitching reinforcements in the coming weeks, though the rotation is in decent enough shape at the moment. Steele has since returned from the injured list while Ben Brown has stepped up and staked a claim to a rotation spot with a 3.33 ERA on the year. Between those two, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon, no one in the rotation has an ERA higher than Steele’s 4.10. Wicks is also rehabbing and could be a candidate to rejoin the group in the coming weeks.
Taking all that together, the path for Horton to get to the big leagues is currently much tougher to see than it was just one month ago. Regardless, the Cubs will be hoping to get him back on track in the weeks to come as the need for another starter can pop up at any time. It would also be good to get him some more innings for the long term, as he only has 34 1/3 so far this year with the Cubs undoubtedly hoping for something close to a full starter’s workload next season. He had Tommy John surgery in 2021 and is still working on getting fully stretched out for the long run.
Big Hype Prospects: Gasser, Mead, Vientos, Frelick, Horton
Big Hype Prospects returns with a peek at the upper minors. Let’s get down to business…
Five Big Hype Prospects
Robert Gasser, 24, SP, MIL (AAA)
90.1 IP, 10.86 K/9, 3.49 BB/9, 4.18 ERA
One of the best pitching prospects remaining in Triple-A, Gasser could find his way into the Milwaukee rotation by the end of the season – if not sooner. Presently, the weak links are Colin Rea and Adrian Houser. Brandon Woodruff is nearing a return to oust one of those swingmen. Gasser is a southpaw with unusual arm action, but the Brewers pitching development staff specializes in the bizarre and grotesque, so Gasser could scarcely be in a better system for his particular brand of pitching. While he doesn’t have visually impressive stuff, the whole repertoire plays up due to plus command. Gasser might have some issues with right-handed batters.
Curtis Mead, 22, 3B, TBR (AAA)
173 PA, 3 HR, 2 SB, .311/.376/.497
The 2023 campaign hasn’t gone Mead’s way. Between missed time and a slow start, the powerful corner-man has only three home runs. Lately, he’s caught fire to the tune of .431/.493/.677 over his last 75 plate appearances, with nine walks and four strikeouts. While he has only one home run during this hot streak, Mead also swatted nine doubles and two triples. Over-the-fence results will come before long. In the meantime, Mead is swinging a big stick with the sorts of exit velocities associated with MLB regulars (89.4-mph average, 109.5-mph max).
Mark Vientos, 1B/3B, 23, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 264 PA, 16 HR, .307/.386/.614
The Mets recently recalled Vientos despite mediocre performance on the farm, as Vientos has hit .264/.316/.472 (90 wRC+) in 57 Triple-A plate appearances since the start of July. He thrived in the minors earlier in the season and certainly deserves an extended look with the retooling Mets. Vientos presents a complicated evaluation, as his positives include plus discipline, premium raw power, and exciting in-game exit velocities. However, scouts point out issues with his swing which could prove exploitable. In 99 career MLB plate appearances, Vientos is batting just .189/.253/.267 despite excellent exit velocities (93.3-mph average, 114.9-mph max). Those are basically the exact same EVs as Juan Soto and MJ Melendez. The Melendez comp is interesting, as the young Royals slugger is having a rough season due partly to swing-and-miss issues and partly to an expansive home venue. Vientos faces similar challenges with his swing and ballpark.
Sal Frelick, OF, 23, MIL (MLB)
(AAA) 183 PA, 2 HR, 8 SB, .237/.333/.342
Recently promoted to Milwaukee, it is hoped Frelick can become a top-of-the-lineup sparkplug. He’s known for discipline and a high rate of contact. He’s also not a particularly impactful hitter. Frelick connects with the same sort of oomph as Whit Merrifield and Steven Kwan. In fact, Kwan isn’t a bad comp – they’re both 5’9’’ left-handed hitting center fielders who fit better defensively in a corner. Frelick has a better chance to stick in center while at the plate, Kwan has superior feel for contact. The end result might wind up in the same neighborhood – a no-doubt Major League starter who nonetheless fits awkwardly within the current roster-design meta.
Cade Horton, 21, SP, CHC (A+)
43 IP, 12.56 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 4.19 ERA
Horton hype season is in full swing. One of the fastest-rising pitching prospects per list-makers, Horton features a typical repertoire with mid-90s heat, multiple breaking balls, and a usable platoon changeup. The Cubs org is well-regarded when it comes to pitch design, a feature Horton could exploit as he moves up the ladder. He has enough feel for command to move quickly once the kid gloves are off. Presently, said gloves are on due to recovery from UCL replacement. He usually takes a week or more between starts of 15 to 20 batters. His last two outings have been among his shakiest of the season.
Three More
Coby Mayo, BAL (21): One of the nice things about Triple-A is access to minor league exit velocities. Mayo may not be hitting well through his first 36 plate appearances in Norfolk, but he has produced encouraging EVs – 90.6-mph average and 111.8-mph max. He’s currently batting .219/.278/.375 with a 36.1 percent strikeout rate.
Colt Keith, DET (21): Another recent promotee to Triple-A, Keith is hitting a modest .274/.347/.403 in 72 plate appearances. His EVs – 88.5-mph average and 108.9-mph max – are in line with figures from last season. I was hoping to see some obvious growth in this respect. His defensive limitations put a lot of pressure on the bat. We’ll see if the coming weeks bring harder contact.
Evan Carter, TEX (20): Despite success in Double-A, Carter has yet to receive a promotion. He’s batting .298/.415/.462 in 316 plate appearances. These stats match the scouting report. He has a superb eye and a solid feel for contact. The quality of that contact is…fine. It’s fine. Really. Given his current prospect pedigree, I’d really like to see better than “fine.”
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Cubs Sign First-Round Pick Cade Horton
The Cubs have signed their first-round selection Cade Horton with a $4.45MM signing bonus, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). Horton’s deal comes in south of the slot value for the seventh overall selection, which is allotted $5.71MM.
By coming in under slot for Horton, Callis notes, the Cubs were able to use their savings to draft Jackson Ferris in the second round of the draft. That certainly counts as a win for Chicago, but Horton himself is no slouch. The athletic 20-year-old right-hander comes to the Cubs as a pitcher, but he was also a competent infielder with Oklahoma, though his offensive numbers don’t jump off the page. He hit .235/.323/.324 across 168 plate appearances while mostly playing third base.
But of course, the Cubs did not draft Horton as an infielder. On the hill for Oklahoma, Horton posted a 4.86 ERA over 14 outings (11 starts) totaling 53 2/3 innings during the NCAA regular season. Horton brings a power arsenal to Chicago. He throws heat in the upper nineties, which he complements with a wipeout slider that touches 90 mph.
Horton does come with an injury history, having missed his freshman season at OU because of Tommy John surgery. The Cubs may believe the best is yet to come with Horton as he continues to find his footing after surgery. He was particularly impressive during the College World Series, which no doubt raised his stock enough to put him into the first-round conversation.
2022 MLB Draft, First Round Results
The 2022 MLB Draft is underway, and here is the full list of each team’s selections from the first round. The Dodgers are the only team without a first-rounder, as their top pick (originally 30th overall) was dropped 10 places to 40th overall (the first pick of the second round) as part of their punishment for exceeding the highest luxury-tax tier in 2021. However, there are still 30 picks in the first round proper since the Mets have both the 11th and 14th overall picks — for not signing 10th overall pick Kumar Rocker last year, New York was given a compensatory selection in the 11th overall spot this year.
This year’s draft will again be 20 rounds long, and split over three days. The first 80 picks will be made tonight — the first two official rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, and the two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents). Rounds 3-10 take place on Monday, and rounds 11-20 on Tuesday.
Under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, the 2023 draft will have several differences, including a lottery to determine the top six picks, a revamped process for deciding the Competitive Balance rounds, possible extra picks for teams due to the Prospect Promotion Incentive rules, and possibly the end of the qualifying offer system as we know it should an international draft be implemented.
For one final year under this draft format, however, let’s dive into the picks. More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
The selections….
- Baltimore Orioles: Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater High School (OK)
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan High School (GA)
- Texas Rangers: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt (played in independent Frontier League in 2021)
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Termarr Johnson, SS, Benjamin E. Mays High School (GA)
- Washington Nationals: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL)
- Miami Marlins: Jacob Berry, 3B/OF, LSU
- Chicago Cubs: Cade Horton, RHP, University of Oklahoma
- Minnesota Twins: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
- Kansas City Royals: Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
- Colorado Rockies: Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
- New York Mets: Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
- Detroit Tigers: Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
- Los Angeles Angels: Zach Neto, SS, Campbell University
- New York Mets: Jett Williams, SS/OF, Rockwall-Heath High School (TX)
- San Diego Padres: Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford High School (GA)
- Cleveland Guardians: Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison University
- Philadelphia Phillies: Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman High School (NV)
- Cincinnati Reds: Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC (FL)
- Oakland Athletics: Daniel Susac, C, University of Arizona
- Atlanta Braves: Owen Murphy, RHP, Riverside-Brookfield High School (IL)
- Seattle Mariners: Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny High School (PA)
- St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State University
- Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage High School (FL)
- Boston Red Sox: Mikey Romero, SS, Orange Lutheran High School (CA)
- New York Yankees: Spencer Jones, OF, Vanderbilt University
- Chicago White Sox: Noah Schultz, LHP, Oswego East High School (IL)
- Milwaukee Brewers: Eric Brown Jr., SS, Coastal Carolina University
- Houston Astros: Drew Gilbert, OF, University of Tennessee
- Tampa Bay Rays: Xavier Isaac, 1B, East Forsyth High School (NC)
- San Francisco Giants: Reggie Crawford, LHP/1B, University of Connecticut