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Carlos Correa

Giants, Carlos Correa Agree To 13-Year Deal

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The Giants have landed the star player they’d been seeking. San Francisco is reportedly in agreement with Carlos Correa on a 13-year, $350MM contract. The deal doesn’t contain any opt-out provisions but the Boras Corporation client will receive a full no-trade clause.

It’ll be the third team in as many years for Correa, who turned 28 in September. The longtime Astro hit free agency last winter. Generally regarded as the top player in that offseason’s class, he didn’t find the long-term megadeal he’d sought after declining a qualifying offer from Houston.

After the lockout, Correa pivoted to a shorter-term gamble on himself, inking a three-year guarantee with the Twins that paid him the largest per-year salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player in MLB history. That deal allowed Correa to opt out and retest the market this winter, and he was ineligible for another QO thanks to the CBA’s prohibition on a player receiving the offer multiple times in his career.

Correa’s 2022 campaign got off to a slower than expected start. He hit .243/.309/.324 in April, presumably dealing with some lingering effects of his late signing and cold early-season weather that took a toll on his power output. In the first week of May, Correa dealt with a scare when he was struck on the right hand on a check swing. Initial x-rays indicated he may have fractured his right middle finger, but follow-up testing revealed he suffered only a bruise. He still landed on the injured list but returned after a minimal stint. Aside from a brief stay on the COVID-19 list a few weeks later, Correa stayed healthy the rest of the way.

After returning from the finger bruise, Correa was one of the sport’s best players. He hit .299/.376/.488 in 487 plate appearances from mid-May onwards. Among 133 qualified hitters over that stretch, he ranked 14th in on-base percentage and 23rd in slugging. That excellent finish brought his season line up to .291/.366/.467 in 136 games. Correa’s overall offensive productivity was 40 percentage points above league average, by measure of wRC+. That’s right in line with the levels he’d established late in his time in Houston. Correa stumbled in the abbreviated 2020 campaign but had respective wRC+ tallies 42 and 33 points above average in 2019 and ’21.

Over the past four seasons, the former first overall pick has tallied just under 1800 plate appearances. He’s hit .281/.359/.481 with a strong 10.6% walk rate and a lower than average 20.4% strikeout percentage. Correa has posted a hard contact rate north of 42% in each of the past four seasons, well above the 35-36% league marks. Broadly speaking, there’s nothing to nitpick with his offensive ability. He makes contact, has strong plate discipline and has topped 20 home runs in six of the seven 162-game seasons of his career. Correa has unsurprisingly been better against left-handers than righties, but he’s been excellent against pitchers of either handedness. He owns a .291/.386/.482 career mark against southpaws, while he’s hit .274/.346/.477 against same-handed arms.

Correa had some injury issues earlier in his career, missing time in 2018 with back discomfort and fracturing a rib in 2019. He’s only twice topped 600 plate appearances in a season, but the aforementioned finger contusion is the only non-virus ailment that has sent him to the IL within the past three seasons. With his recent health and the strong finish to his 2022 campaign, his camp made the easy call to opt out of the final two years and $70.2MM on his Twins deal.

For the second straight winter, he was the top free agent option in a loaded shortstop class. Even with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson hitting the open market, Correa was the best available shortstop. Aaron Judge was the market’s top free agent overall on the heels of an MVP-winning, 62-homer season, but one can argue Correa was the best long-term bet available.

In addition to his strong offensive track record, the two-time All-Star is typically one of the sport’s most valuable defenders. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as an above-average shortstop in every season of his career. Altogether, DRS has pegged him as 70 runs better than par in more than 7600 innings. Statcast hasn’t been as bullish, but it also generally rates him as a plus gloveman. Statcast has pegged Correa as 17 runs above average since it began tracking defense in 2016, including plus grades each year from 2018-21.

Correa’s defense marks were particularly excellent during his final season in Houston, when he rated as +20 runs by DRS and +9 runs at Statcast. He secured his first career Gold Glove award in the process. This year’s reviews weren’t so impressive. DRS still considered him a net positive at three runs above average, but that was the lowest mark of his career. Statcast pegged him two runs below par, his first below-average showing by that metric since 2017.

Defensive metrics can vary on an annual basis, and it doesn’t seem San Francisco’s concerned with this past season’s mid-tier showing. Correa boasts a plus arm and has generally been very sure-handed. There may be some trepidation about how his 6’4″, 220 pound frame will hold up into his mid-late 30’s, particularly since he’s only an average runner. With his hands and arm strength, however, the Giants can at least project above-average glovework for the next few seasons.

San Francisco has four-time Gold Glove winner Brandon Crawford under contract for another year. They didn’t enter the offseason needing shortstop help necessarily, but their infield around Crawford had its share of question marks. San Francisco re-signed Wilmer Flores to a two-year guarantee to add a productive righty bat to the mix at first, second or third base. Tommy La Stella is under contract for another season but hasn’t played well since landing in San Francisco. J.D. Davis and David Villar are on hand as corner options, while Thairo Estrada can cover the middle infield and adds a solid righty bat.

There are a lot of moving pieces available for skipper Gabe Kapler, but adding Correa figures to solidify the left side of the infield with an everyday pair. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote last month the team planned to move Crawford to the hot corner if they were to sign Correa. Crawford has never played an inning outside of shortstop in the majors, but he figures to handle the less demanding position well.

While shortstop itself may not have been a priority for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his front office, adding impact talent certainly was. The Giants made no secret of their desire to land Judge. When he returned to the Bronx, the club pivoted to Correa — the clear top hitter remaining. He’ll now become the highlight acquisition of the offseason, joining outfielder Mitch Haniger and pitchers Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling as players brought in to try to rebound from an 81-81 campaign.

Doing so requires one of the largest investments in major league history. The $350MM guarantee checks in as the fourth-largest ever. It’s the second-biggest free agent deal of all-time, just narrowly below the $360MM deal that Judge inked a week ago. Correa becomes the second free agent to land a 13-year contract, matching the record length secured by Bryce Harper with the Phillies over the 2018-19 offseason. The deal runs through the 2035 campaign, what will be Correa’s age-40 season.

That kind of lengthy megadeal has become en vogue this offseason. Turner and Bogaerts signed 11-year deals with the Phillies and Padres, respectively, taking them each through their own age-40 seasons. Judge inked a nine-year deal that paid him through age 39. MLBTR had predicted Correa for a nine-year, $288MM contract at the start of the offseason. As with Turner and Bogaerts, those deals lasted longer than anticipated, with each correspondingly securing a greater guarantee than expected.

That has involved a bit of a tradeoff with regards to annual salary, however. Correa’s deal comes with an average annual value around $26.92MM, a mark that’s outside the top 25 in MLB history. That’s well lower than the $32MM per-year salary MLBTR had projected, with the Puerto Rico native electing to sacrifice some money on an annual basis to secure a larger total sum. Doing so could very well position him to spend the remainder of his career in the Bay Area.

From a team perspective, spreading the guarantee over a longer term adds more future downside but has the more immediate benefit of reducing the club’s luxury tax hit. A team’s CBT commitments are based on deals’ average annual values, and the $26.92MM mark is more manageable in that regard.

That’s now relevant for the Giants, whose payroll has spiked dramatically. The specific financial breakdown isn’t yet clear, but an evenly distributed salary would push the Giants 2023 payroll around $190MM, as projected by Roster Resource. Their luxury tax figure is about $206MM, $27MM below the base threshold. San Francisco’s spending is well above the $150-155MM range of the past few seasons, but it’s still shy of their $200MM franchise-record Opening Day mark from 2018.

The Giants could keep pushing forward as they jostle for position atop a stacked NL West with the Dodgers and Padres. The bullpen is still a question mark, and San Francisco could look into upgrades at first base and/or center field. The Giants remained involved in the bidding for ace Carlos Rodón as of this afternoon as well, although signing both Correa and the top remaining free agent starting pitcher may push beyond their financial comfort level.

As for Correa’s now-former team, they’ll be left to regroup having missed out on their top target of the winter. Minnesota offered a 10-year deal worth $285MM, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. That came with a higher annual salary than the offer Correa actually accepted, but the Twins were apparently reluctant to commit deep into his 30’s. They’re now facing an uncertain shortstop situation, with Kyle Farmer and Royce Lewis looking like the top internal options.

Minnesota has already had some discussions with Swanson this offseason, keeping tabs on him as a fallback possibility to Correa. The organization should have a decent amount of financial flexibility and could now pivot more strongly after Swanson if they’re determined to address shortstop. They’ve also been linked to Rodón at various points and could try to allocate their spending capacity to a top-of-the-rotation arm. The Twins surely aren’t done in any event, although that’ll be little consolation for the front office and fanbase for the moment. Because Correa was ineligible for the qualifying offer, they don’t receive any compensation for his departure.

It’s the latest massive move in an offseason that has gained plenty of steam since the calendar flipped to December. Correa joins an increasingly loaded division and, more generally, a very competitive National League. In the process, he becomes the new face of the Giants — a role the club hopes he’ll effectively hold well into the next decade.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Correa and the Giants had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM contract. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the deal didn’t include any opt-out provisions but contained a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Carlos Rodon’s Market

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10:42pm: The Yankees have indeed put forth an offer to Rodon, Heyman writes. There’s apparently still a fair bit of work to do in order to get a deal done, as Heyman indicates there’s a notable gap between New York’s proposal and Rodon’s asking price.

2:55pm: Carlos Rodon is the clear top pitcher remaining on the open market, and despite a lofty asking price reportedly in the $200MM neighborhood, multiple clubs remain in pursuit of the left-hander. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported yesterday that the Yankees are prepping a formal offer for Rodon, and Brendan Kuty of NJ.com now tweets that the Yankees appear to be Rodon’s preferred landing spot. However, Kuty adds that both the Twins and the Cardinals both remain “seriously in play” for the southpaw as of this afternoon. Meanwhile, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that even after agreeing to identical two-year, $25MM deals with both Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea this week, the Giants are still involved in Rodon’s market.

The Twins’ interest in Rodon is perhaps contingent on the looming decision of Carlos Correa who, like Rodon, is represented by the Boras Corporation. Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests that Correa remains the Twins’ top priority, though he adds that the team nonetheless made a pitch to Rodon earlier in the month (Twitter thread). Given that the Giants are viewed as Minnesota’s primary competition for Correa, it’s fair to wonder whether both clubs might be prioritizing Correa with the intent of pivoting to Rodon should they be spurned by Correa. That both players have the same agent makes concurrent negotiations a smoother process.

After agreeing to a three-year deal with free-agent catcher Christian Vazquez yesterday, Minnesota projects to about $107MM in total commitments for the upcoming season. That’s well shy of the more than $140MM they spent on last year’s Opening Day roster, but not so far south of the mark that it becomes easy to envision a scenario in which both Correa and Rodon sign on to call Target Field home. The Twins have drawn interest in right fielder Max Kepler this winter, but even in the event of a Kepler deal coming together, a Correa/Rodon combo would push Minnesota well past $150MM in total payroll for the first time in franchise history and would likely lock them into $75-80MM worth of annual commitments to the trio of Correa, Rodon and Byron Buxton.

The Giants, meanwhile, are roughly $43MM from their franchise-record Opening Day payroll even after their deals with Stripling and Manaea. Similarly, though, it’s difficult to see both players landing in San Francisco. The Giants are already a bit north of $180MM in terms of luxury obligations, and that pairing would likely push them into tax territory for the first time. That said, the Giants have topped $200MM in payroll before, and the only player currently signed beyond the 2024 season is Mitch Haniger, who’s signed through 2025. The Giants have been averse to long-term contracts under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, though they made hefty bids for both Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper under his watch.

As for the Cardinals, they were linked to Rodon this past weekend, and Kuty paints them as a fairly prominent player in the bidding. The Cards would make for something of a surprise bidder, having already spent $87.5MM to bring Willson Contreras to St. Louis on a five-year contract. Signing Rodon would likely mean doling out the largest commitment in franchise history and pushing payroll to height never before seen in St. Louis. The Cardinals’ current record for Opening Day payroll is a bit more north of $163MM, in 2021, but they’re already at that rough level right now Rodon could well take them north of $190MM.

Circling back to the Yankees, they at one point reportedly hoped to limit any Rodon deals to four or five years in length, though that doesn’t seem likely to get them in the ballpark. With Judge and Cole both locked into a combined $76MM in annual commitments through the 2028 season (2029 in Judge’s case), adding Rodon to the mix would require budgeting more than $100MM annually for a trio of players for at least the next six years. Giancarlo Stanton is under contract through 2027, as well, further complicating the long-term scenario for Rodon.

At present, Roster Resource projects a $266MM luxury-tax ledger for the Yankees. They’re already set to pay the tax for a second straight season, so they’ll owe $6MM on the first $20MM by which they cross the $233MM threshold and $8.5MM on the next $20MM. Once they reach $273MM in luxury obligations, they’ll be taxed at a rate of 75%, and they’d be taxed at 90% on any dollars beyond the $293MM mark.

Speculatively penciling in an even $30MM AAV (which could, of course, be off by a few million dollars one way or another), the Yankees would jump from their currently projected $11.74MM of penalties all the way up to about $32.65MM in penalties. In other words, they’d pay an approximate $21MM in taxes on top of Rodon’s actual salary for the 2023 season. Passing the luxury threshold by more than $40MM would also drop the Yankees’ top pick in the 2023 draft by 10 places, and any Rodon deal would make it quite difficult to drop under the tax line (and avoid even steeper tax rates as a third-time offender) in 2024.

Mets Interested In Carlos Correa

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The Mets are showing interest in Carlos Correa, report Ken Rosenthal, Dan Hayes and Andy McCullough of the Athletic. It’s not clear precisely how committed they are to making a run at the top remaining free agent, but their presence on at least the periphery of the market makes for a fascinating twist.

This offseason has been dominated by Mets headlines, with the team signing a number of top free agents. New York made nine-figure commitments to retain Edwin Díaz ($102MM over five years) and Brandon Nimmo ($162MM over eight years). The Mets brought in Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86.66MM deal — tying the annual salary record they established with last offseason’s three-year pact for Max Scherzer. They agreed to terms with Kodai Senga on a five-year, $75MM pact and have signed smaller but still notable deals with José Quintana (two years, $26MM) and David Robertson (one year, $10MM).

That spending spree added to a roster that already had the league’s highest payroll. Certainly, the Mets faced a number of key departures as well. They allowed Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker to sign elsewhere. That said, they’re already projected well beyond this year’s spending level. New York opened the 2022 campaign with a player payroll around $264MM; they’re projected by Roster Resource at a staggering $336MM figure for next season.

It’s an unparalleled number in league history, one that leaves open the question of how far owner Steve Cohen and his front office are willing to go. Cohen has proven himself undeterred by traditional spending habits, and he’s certainly seemed unfazed by the luxury tax that’s ostensibly in place to prevent any team from spending head and shoulders above the rest.

Roster Resource projects the Mets’ luxury tax number around $350MM at the moment. They’re $117MM clear of the base tax threshold and are going to blow past all four tiers of penalization. New York paid the CBT this past season, so they’re also facing escalating penalties for going over for a second straight year. The Mets will pay a 30% tax on their first $20MM above the threshold ($6MM), a 42% tax on their next $20MM in overages ($8.4MM), a 75% tax on their next $20MM in surplus spending ($15MM) and a 90% tax on any additional dollars. New York is currently an estimated $57MM above the fourth and final tier, one colloquially known as the “Cohen tax” after being introduced in the most recent CBA at least partially in response to Cohen’s reputation for spending. That’s another $51.3MM in taxes, bringing New York’s total projected tax bill to a staggering $80.7MM.

Of course, that’s before considering the possibility of adding another megadeal. Correa is the best free agent still on the board. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR forecasted a nine-year, $288MM contract. The two top shortstops already off the board — Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts — each best our predictions, with Bogaerts’ $280MM contract coming in well above most expectations. In light of the strength of the market, Correa pushing past $300MM now seems likely, and one could argue for him to approach the $360MM guarantee Aaron Judge received from the Yankees given Correa’s youth and greater defensive value.

Even if we conservatively pencil Correa in for the pre-offseason prediction of $288MM over nine years, that’d come out to a $32MM annual salary. New York would be taxed at 90% on top of that, effectively making it a $60.8MM commitment to the star shortstop for next season. It’d be the kind of move a team has never made for an individual player, and again, that now seems a rather pessimistic view of Correa’s earning power. Certainly, the deal could push longer than nine years and lower the annual salary somewhat — Turner and Bogaerts each received 11 years despite being older than Correa — but any permutation of the contract would involve the team investing an immense sum. Cohen has clearly established himself as an owner unconcerned with precedent, and it’d be foolish to count the Mets out on any free agent at this point.

The Mets don’t need a shortstop, of course, with Francisco Lindor locked in as their long-term answer at the position. Third base isn’t accounted for by a star, with veteran Eduardo Escobar coming off an average season and top prospect Brett Baty still unproven at the MLB level. Relying on Escobar and Baty wouldn’t be a disaster, but installing Correa alongside Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Lindor would lock in All-Star caliber players everywhere on the infield.

Beyond the Mets, the Giants and incumbent Twins are reported to be prioritizing Correa at this stage of the offseason. They’re widely viewed as the top suitors, while teams like the Cubs and Red Sox have been more loosely linked to him. Dansby Swanson, who’s drawing attention from many of the same clubs, remains available as the clear second-best position player still on the open market.

Giants Made Offer To Brandon Nimmo

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It’ll come as little consolation to Giants fans, but the team did have an offer on the table for top remaining free agent outfielder Brandon Nimmo before he wound up re-signing with the Mets for eight years and $162MM, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. As Puma notes, it appears that once owner Steve Cohen got personally involved, Nimmo’s return to the Mets materialized quickly. It’s not known what terms the Giants were offering Nimmo.

It’s the second-straight outfielder the Giants have missed out on, having aggressively pursued Aaron Judge before he ultimately return to New York on a nine-year, $360MM deal. They have added Mitch Haniger on a three-year, $43.5MM deal but from the outset of the off-season they’ve been strongly linked with the top free agents. They could still sign one, and they’re one of the teams (along with the Twins and Cubs, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman) that are heavily rumored to be in on Carlos Correa.

The outfield has been an area of focus for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi this winter. Haniger’s addition bolsters their group, but Zaidi’s wanted two outfield signings. Now that they’ve missed out on the clear top two options available, it’ll be interesting to see whether they look for another outfielder, or go with a mix of Haniger, Austin Slater and Mike Yastrzemski and divert their resources to other options like Correa, or a starting pitcher.

If they do continue with their plans to add another outfielder, Andrew Benintendi is probably the top free agent available now. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $54MM deal for him, and given the Giants’ payroll space they could conceivably go after someone like that while still having space to pursue a long-term deal with Correa. They could also look to the trade market, and approach the Pirates about a deal to bring Bryan Reynolds back to the team that drafted him in 2016. While Reynolds is only due to make $6.75MM in 2023, he’s under club control for three more seasons and Pittsburgh looks to have a sky high asking price for him.

The Giants have a projected payroll of about $139MM as things stand, but they also have in the region of $60MM+ coming off the books at the end of next season. Given their payroll has stretched north of $200MM in recent seasons, they do have plenty of room to make a number of additions over the next season or two.

Dodgers “Are Not Pursuing” Carlos Correa

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The departure of Trea Turner to the Phillies has left the Dodgers with a bit of a hole at shortstop, but it seems they won’t be filling that spot with top free agent option Carlos Correa. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the team is not pursuing the former Astro and Twin, in part due to his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing team of 2017 that beat the Dodgers in the World Series, and how that might upset a large portion of their fanbase.

The financial aspect of signing a player like Correa is playing a part too as the 28-year-old could command a deal in excess of $300MM. The Dodgers’ payroll is on track to be significantly lower than in 2022, and they certainly have the financial muscle to take on a contract like that, but they’re also waiting on whether or not Major League Baseball opts to uphold Trevor Bauer’s two-year suspension for violating the league’s policy on sexual assault and domestic violence.

Should the suspension be upheld, the Dodgers won’t owe anything to Bauer, but if it’s overturned or reduced the Dodgers will be on the hook for all or part of his salary. As Bill Shaikin of the LA Times notes, there’s $60MM of salary at stake, although that number could rise to as much as $100MM, as the Dodgers are a third-time luxury tax offender. As Rosenthal notes, it’s enough cost uncertainty for the Dodgers to be wary of adding significant payroll this winter.

The news that they’re not pursuing Correa doesn’t necessarily rule them out of spending on a shortstop, and although reports have indicated there’s momentum towards Xander Bogaerts returning to the Red Sox, the Dodgers have been connected with him earlier in the off-season. Dansby Swanson is the other top shortstop available, while lower profile options in free agency include Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus. Alternatively, they could just plug Gavin Lux in at shortstop and seek to replace the lost offense from Turner in other areas.

Such areas could include center field, as well as adding another middle-of-the-order bat and a starting pitcher. Rosenthal notes that the team is looking to rely more heavily on young, minimum salary players this year, and free agent additions would be more modestly priced, and cites Kevin Kiermaier and J.D. Martinez as options, while the team has been connected to Andrew McCutchen recently. The Dodgers do have the likes of Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch and Jacob Amaya on the roster all with less than a year of service time, and they could be candidates to see increased playing time next season.

For Correa, while having a big market team like the Dodgers involved in the bidding certainly doesn’t hurt negotiations, he’ll still find plenty of suitors. The Twins have been aggressive in trying to re-sign him, while the Cubs have already met with him at the Winter Meetings and have the payroll to take on a big, long-term contract. The Giants are also a team to watch now that they’ve missed out on Aaron Judge, as they too have the deep pockets and payroll space required to sign Correa to a lengthy contract.

Padres Made Strong Offer For Aaron Judge

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3:22pm: Although Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic doesn’t say exactly how far the Padres went in their Judge pursuit, he reports the team did not offer Judge $400MM.

9:25am: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Padres’ offer was $400MM over 10 years.

9:15am: The Aaron Judge bidding was widely believed to be a two-team battle between the Yankees and Giants. In the end, Judge is returning to the Bronx but there was a surprise third team that sat down at the table. Judge reportedly flew to the Winter Meetings in San Diego and met with the Yankees, Giants and Padres, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Padres came in with a “significant” offer, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Judge turned down higher offers elsewhere to return to the Yanks. A report from Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic indicates that Judge met with Padres owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller but “it is believed they never got the chance to make a formal bid.”

The fact that the Padres came close on Judge is noteworthy since this is the second time this week that they have reportedly been willing to put a massive deal in front of a player. After Trea Turner signed with the Phillies for $300MM over 11 years, it was reported that the Friars actually made Turner a higher offer of $342MM. The specifics of that offer aren’t known, so it’s possible that it contained deferrals or options that would change the context, but it was surely a huge number regardless. The details of what they floated to Judge aren’t known either, but since Judge is in agreement with the Yankees for $360MM over nine years, it can be fairly assumed that the Padres were willing to get somewhere in that vicinity.

The Padres have never really been considered heavy hitters when it comes to baseball spending, but they have completely changed that reputation in recent years. Up until recent years, they had only once had an Opening Day payroll in nine-figure territory, which came back in 2015, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They started ramping that up with big free agents deals for Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, a massive extension for Fernando Tatis Jr., and a whole host of trades for stars on other teams. As a result, their Opening Day payrolls jumped to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM in 2022 and they ended up paying the luxury tax in both of those years thanks in part to in-season trades.

This week’s offers to Turner and Judge seem to indicate that they still haven’t reached the ceiling of where they are willing to go. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $210MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $230MM. Signing Turner or Judge would have likely adding something around $30-40MM to each of those numbers. It’s possible they could have then looked to lower them by making trades, but they also still have other needs on the roster to address, such as filling out their starting rotation. Since the club is likely to be a third-time payor in 2023, they will face escalating penalties this time around. Any spending over $233MM will result in a 50% tax, with a 62% tax for going over $253MM and a 95% tax on spending over $273MM.

The question now will be whether the Padres will now dedicate those resources elsewhere or if they viewed Turner and Judge as especially elite talents that were worth stretching their comfort zone. Though many top free agents have flown off the board this week, there are still plenty of them left. With Turner gone, three of the “big four” shortstops remain in Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Signing a shortstop is a bit of a clunky fit on the roster since the Padres already have Ha-Seong Kim and Tatis, but they were willing to do it with Turner, perhaps by moving Tatis to the outfield. Would they pursue the same plan with one of the other shortstops? There’s also the starting rotation to think about, since the Friars lost Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency. While Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are now signed, would the Padres consider a big splash on the last remaining ace in Carlos Rodón? With Judge off the board, the best remaining outfielder in free agency is Brandon Nimmo. Will the Padres turn their attentions to him?

Similar questions will now be asked about the Giants, as they were surely near Judge’s final price as well. Morosi reports that Judge had offers, plural, beyond what he accepted from the Yankees. Since the reporting indicates this came down to a three-team race, that seems to imply that both the Padres and the Giants were willing to go beyond the $360MM figure Judge eventually accepted.

Unlike the Padres, the Giants still have plenty of room before on their ledger before thinking about the luxury tax. Roster Resource has their payroll at $139MM with a CBT number of $156MM. Even if they added about $40MM or so with a Judge signing, they would have been well shy of the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. It’s been reported for months that the Giants were interested in pursuing Judge as well as the marquee shortstops in this offseason. It now seems quite likely that they will pivot from Judge to those shortstops and be connected to them in rumors in the weeks to come. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that this is indeed the plan, with Carlos Correa atop their list, though they will also be looking for another starting pitcher and outfielder, to pair with yesterday’s signing of Mitch Haniger.

Giants Showing Interest In Sean Manaea

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The Giants are showing interest in free agent starter Sean Manaea, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last night the team was seeking rotation help.

Manaea’s one of a number of mid-tier free agent starting pitchers available. The left-hander is a bit of a bounceback candidate after a rough second half with the Padres, although he’s typically provided teams with solid mid-rotation production. Manaea worked to an ERA between 3.59 and 4.37 during his four full seasons with the Athletics. Oakland’s spacious home ballpark and excellent team defenses certainly helped him, but the Indiana State product also consistently pounded the strike zone and tended to induce ground-balls at a decent clip.

That typically effective track record led San Diego to acquire him from the A’s this past spring. Manaea was expected to fortify an already strong rotation, and he mostly did so through his first few months at Petco Park. At the All-Star Break, he carried a 4.11 ERA with an above-average 23.9% strikeout rate. From the second half onwards, however, he was tagged for more than six earned runs per nine. By year’s end, he owned a career-worst 4.96 mark, and he was shelled for five runs in 1 1/3 innings during his sole postseason outing.

It’s certainly not the way the 30-year-old (31 in February) envisioned closing out his platform year. At the same time, there’s also reason to believe he’ll still have a strong market. Manaea’s strikeout and walk rates in the second half remained good (22.1% and 4.7%, respectively). He was brutally home run prone down the stretch, allowing 2.35 longballs per nine innings. That’s obviously untenable, but he’s unlikely to surrender homers on nearly 19% of his fly balls over a larger sample. Manaea tends to allow a lot of hard contact, but the 2022 campaign was the first in which that translated to serious problems keeping the ball in the yard.

That could point to Manaea being a target for teams with a pitcher-friendly home environment. The Giants have one of the league’s worst outfield defenses, but they expect to bring in a pair of outfielders from outside the organization this winter. Oracle Park also remained one of the more difficult venues for hitters to clear the walls. San Francisco has had a fair bit of success in recent years bringing in starting pitching from the middle of the free agent market. Players like Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani have each done well as bounceback candidates with the Giants, although it’s certainly not guaranteed Manaea will have to take a one-year pillow deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN floated that possibility last week, although the lack of a qualifying offer and the southpaw’s quality strikeout and walk numbers could lead to decent multi-year interest.

Meanwhile, Slusser adds the Giants have engaged representative Scott Boras at this week’s Winter Meetings regarding clients Carlos Correa and Brandon Nimmo. Both are known to be San Francisco targets, with Correa reportedly the team’s preferred option of this winter’s shortstop class. Of course, either player would seem to take a backseat on the priority list for Aaron Judge, to whom the Giants have reportedly offered a deal in the $360MM range. It’s theoretically possible the Giants could remain aggressive after Nimmo even if they land Judge, but it’s hard to envision them nabbing both Judge and Correa — the two top free agents remaining.

Padres Unlikely To Pursue Other Shortstops After Missing Out On Trea Turner

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The Padres’ bid to sign Trea Turner —  which reportedly included a larger offer than he accepted in Philadelphia, even after accounting for California’s higher income tax — caught plenty of fans and pundits off-guard. The Padres already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth as options in the infield, and San Diego also has a pair of $300MM players on the roster in Machado and Tatis (though the former could opt out following the 2023 season).

There’s been speculation (here included) about whether Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will pivot and look into the remaining All-Star shortstops in free agency, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Turner was viewed as a special case and that the Padres were singularly interested in him, rather than adding another shortstop to the mix. As such, it’s unlikely that the Friars will pursue any of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson in the wake of being spurned by Turner. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin does write that the Padres have checked in with Bogaerts this offseason, but Lin adds that Turner was the team’s “clear” preference. MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell adds that the Padres have not spoken to Kim or Cronenworth about a position change at this time.

Preller acknowledged the team’s interest in Turner and the disappointment in not landing him when speaking with Acee and others on the San Diego beat Monday evening. Part of Turner’s appeal, as Preller explained, was his athleticism and experience playing positions other than shortstop, which the Friars believed could create some more flexible lineup choices.

Even if the Padres are out of the mix (or, at best, on the periphery) for the remaining shortstops, the strong bid for Turner is still plenty notable. It underscores that even with a star-studded roster and a payroll that many expected to be reaching its maximum levels, Padres ownership is willing to spend at levels commensurate with the sport’s very biggest financial powers. The Padres paid the luxury tax in 2022, have a projected $210MM bottom-line payroll in 2023 and a projected $230MM in luxury-tax obligations, per Roster Resource, but were apparently still content to put down a $300MM+ offer on Turner.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that San Diego will pivot and dive headlong into the bidding for Aaron Judge, but it also at least opens the door for speculation about such top-of-the-market pursuits. Preller spoke of a corner bat and a starting pitcher as his top needs. Acee suggests that San Diego has looked into reunions with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury in addition to the recently non-tendered Dominic Smith, illustrating the  vast breadth of possibilities the team is considering with Turner now in Philadelphia.

Cubs Have Met With Carlos Correa At Winter Meetings

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The Cubs have had discussions with Carlos Correa in the past 24 hours, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, general manager Carter Hawkins and manager David Ross all attended the meeting. Levine also notes the team has had recent discussions with both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson – the other two top shortstops remaining after Trea Turner agreed to a deal with the Phillies.

Both Correa and Bogaerts in particular have been strongly linked to the Cubs this off-season, and although it’s not yet known whether or not either has received an offer, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times relays information from Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer’s media availability stating the team has made multiple offers to free agents this winter, and that the team is heavily focused on free agency over trades at the moment.

In the wake of Turner coming off the board on an 11-year, $300MM deal, there seems sure be a greater sense of urgency among the teams seeking to sign one of the top free agent shortstops. The Cubs have long been speculated as a possible landing spot for one of the “big four” (now big three) shortstops. They’re a team with plenty of financial muscle that’s looking to make a splash and return to winning ways, so inking a marquee free agent makes plenty of sense.

Correa only turned 28 in September, so he’s still young enough to be a long-term piece for a Cubs team that may not have all the pieces it needs to compete for a championship in 2023. Correa also comes with the added benefit of avoiding draft pick compensation, as he already received one last winter before signing his short-term deal with the Twins.

He’s also coming off yet another elite season, one in which he was worth 4.4 fWAR with the Twins. He slashed .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs for a wRC+ of 140. He experienced a dip in defensive ratings, but was still worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved, though that was the lowest mark of his career.

MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $288MM deal for Correa, although in light of Turner’s deal with Philadelphia, it’s not hard to imagine Correa’s contract heading north of the $300MM mark. The Cubs currently have a projected payroll of $127MM, per RosterResource, which, for a team that has seen payrolls in excess of $200MM recently, leaves plenty of room for a Correa-sized addition and more.

Of course, Correa’s market is expected to be robust, with the Twins making a strong effort to re-sign him, and the Giants and other teams likely to be interested. With that in mind, it makes sense that the team is remaining engaged with Swanson and Bogaerts as well. Levine reports that Chicago met with Bogaerts ten days ago. Swanson is a year older than Correa, while Bogaerts is 30, and while both are elite players in their own right, both will probably command smaller commitments than Correa.

While there’s been plenty of talk of the Cubs signing one of the top shortstops, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the team could sign two of the shortstops. In that case, it’d likely be Bogaerts and Swanson signing, rather than Correa and one of the other two, and it’d be contingent on Bogaerts moving to third base. Needless to say, with the widespread interest in all three players, it’d be a challenge for the Cubs to win the bidding for two of them, but it’s an interesting added layer to consider.

Twins Rumors: Correa, Arraez, Rotation, Catcher

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The Twins are set for another in-person meeting with Scott Boras this week to discuss Carlos Correa, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News reports in his latest podcast (Correa/Twins talk beginning at 10:10). The Twins have already discussed various contract structures with Boras and Correa, reportedly putting forth multiple offers.

Correa, of course, has a broad range of interest, having been connected to the Giants, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Orioles and Dodgers, among others. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote last week that Correa could be the first of the four big-name shortstops to come off the board, calling his market “excellent” and noting that the Twins have been “making a strong push to re-sign him and build their franchise around” Correa. If, however, Correa ultimately signs elsewhere, Minnesota’s upcoming meeting with Boras could serve dual purposes; Boras also represents Xander Bogaerts, who is reportedly of interest to the Twins in the event that Correa departs.

While Correa is the focus at this point, pitching upgrades have been a perennial need at Target Field as well. The team has a decent rotation group consisting of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober, but each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become a free agent next winter. (Maeda is also returning from 2021 Tommy John surgery, so his workload could well be monitored.) The Twins have quite a few MLB-ready arms behind that group — Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino — and could also get Chris Paddack back from Tommy John surgery next summer.

That said, the potential departure of three starters next winter and lack of proven options behind them at least has the Twins thinking creatively about ways to add high-end, controllable pitching. To that end, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that Minnesota’s front office has at least discussed the possibility of trading reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez — if the deal could net them a high-end rotation upgrade. To be clear, there’s no indication that the team plans to aggressively shop Arraez.

Arraez, 25, enjoyed an outstanding .316/.375/.420 output at the plate in 2022, tallying eight home runs, 31 doubles and a triple in 603 plate appearances. Since making his MLB debut in 2019, he’s been one of baseball’s hardest players to strike out, fanning in just 8.3% of his plate appearances and walking at an even-higher 8.7% clip. Arraez’s bat-to-ball skills are practically unmatched, and he’s been fairly disciplined, walking at a roughly league-average clip.

Defensively, Arraez climbed through the minors as a second baseman but has settled into a more nomadic position on the Twins’ roster. With Jorge Polanco locked in at second base (and unlikely to move back to shortstop, where he was a sub-par defender even before a pair of right ankle surgeries), Arraez has logged time at both infield corners, at designated hitter and in left field over the past few seasons. The Twins deployed him primarily at first base in 2022, due in part to injuries to Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff. Despite a lack of experience, he handled the position quite well in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) and Outs Above Average (1).

Excellent as Arraez is on the whole, however, it might be tough for him alone to net the Twins the type of impact arm they’d require to actually consider moving him. At this point, while Arraez is still young, he’s already “only” under club control for another three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $5MM next season in his second year of arbitration as a Super Two player.

Given that the point of even considering an Arraez deal would be to acquire pitching they can control beyond the upcoming season, they’d likely be looking for at least two years of control in said starting pitcher; giving up three years of Arraez isn’t likely to return a high-end starter with multiple years of club control remaining — particularly not when (as Hayes lays out in greater detail), Arraez has a history of knee troubles dating back to a torn ACL as a minor leaguer in 2017. The Twins could add in some minor league talent to help sweeten any deal, but that’d only further complicate the equation. It’s certainly of note that they’re open to the idea, and it’d be a surprise if other teams didn’t reach out to see just what it might take to pry Arraez loose, but an actual trade seems like a long shot at this time.

The Twins’ other focus as they look toward the 2023 season and beyond has been behind the plate. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said he’d like to add another catcher to the mix, and the Twins have spoken at multiple points about wanting to deploy a timeshare behind the plate, splitting time fairly evenly between incumbent Ryan Jeffers — who thrives against left-handed pitching — and a new acquisition. A left-handed bat would best fit the bill, but any catcher who can provide some more offense against right-handed pitching would make some sense.

Wolfson suggests that the Twins don’t appear to be after Willson Contreras as of right now but have spoken to the Athletics, Blue Jays and Braves about their catching depth. The A’s are expected to trade Sean Murphy as the next step in their rebuilding process, while the Jays are dealing with something of a surplus, having Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno as MLB-caliber options on the 40-man roster. Atlanta has Travis d’Arnaud signed for $8MM this coming season plus a 2024 option at the same price, and William Contreras’ breakout could make it easier to part with d’Arnaud, speculatively speaking. The Braves also have veteran Manny Pina signed at a year and $4.5MM, but he played just five games last year before requiring season-ending wrist surgery and, as a career-long defensive-minded backup, wouldn’t fit the Twins’ stated preference of adding a catcher who can provide more offense.

As far as free agents go, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins are among the many teams with some interest in Christian Vazquez. While Vazquez is similar to Jeffers as a right-handed hitter who handles lefties better than righties, his career platoon splits are more even than those of Jeffers, who tattoos lefties but has been vastly below-average against right-handed opponents.

Vazquez, 32, is regarded as a premium defensive option as well, which further adds to his appeal. He’s thrown out a hefty 34% of opponents who attempt to steal against him, consistently drawn plus framing marks, and more broadly has been credited with 51 Defensive Runs Saved in parts of eight MLB seasons. Vazquez was a glove-first player for much of his early big league tenure, but dating back to 2019 he’s turned in a .271/.318/.416 batting line. We predicted a three-year, $27MM deal for Vazquez on our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings, and Rosenthal reports that Vazquez is indeed likely to command a three-year deal based on the current interest.

However things shake out, it’s shaping up to be another active offseason for the Twins, who are going to be quite involved in both the shortstop and (to a lesser extent) catcher markets in the coming weeks. With their current projected payroll of about $98MM sitting more than $40MM shy of where they opened the 2023 season — and no indication that number serves as a ceiling — the Twins should have the latitude to pursue just about any target they choose, but it’s quickly become clear that their general offseason direction hinges on Correa.

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