Mets Interested In Carlos Correa
The Mets are showing interest in Carlos Correa, report Ken Rosenthal, Dan Hayes and Andy McCullough of the Athletic. It’s not clear precisely how committed they are to making a run at the top remaining free agent, but their presence on at least the periphery of the market makes for a fascinating twist.
This offseason has been dominated by Mets headlines, with the team signing a number of top free agents. New York made nine-figure commitments to retain Edwin Díaz ($102MM over five years) and Brandon Nimmo ($162MM over eight years). The Mets brought in Justin Verlander on a two-year, $86.66MM deal — tying the annual salary record they established with last offseason’s three-year pact for Max Scherzer. They agreed to terms with Kodai Senga on a five-year, $75MM pact and have signed smaller but still notable deals with José Quintana (two years, $26MM) and David Robertson (one year, $10MM).
That spending spree added to a roster that already had the league’s highest payroll. Certainly, the Mets faced a number of key departures as well. They allowed Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker to sign elsewhere. That said, they’re already projected well beyond this year’s spending level. New York opened the 2022 campaign with a player payroll around $264MM; they’re projected by Roster Resource at a staggering $336MM figure for next season.
It’s an unparalleled number in league history, one that leaves open the question of how far owner Steve Cohen and his front office are willing to go. Cohen has proven himself undeterred by traditional spending habits, and he’s certainly seemed unfazed by the luxury tax that’s ostensibly in place to prevent any team from spending head and shoulders above the rest.
Roster Resource projects the Mets’ luxury tax number around $350MM at the moment. They’re $117MM clear of the base tax threshold and are going to blow past all four tiers of penalization. New York paid the CBT this past season, so they’re also facing escalating penalties for going over for a second straight year. The Mets will pay a 30% tax on their first $20MM above the threshold ($6MM), a 42% tax on their next $20MM in overages ($8.4MM), a 75% tax on their next $20MM in surplus spending ($15MM) and a 90% tax on any additional dollars. New York is currently an estimated $57MM above the fourth and final tier, one colloquially known as the “Cohen tax” after being introduced in the most recent CBA at least partially in response to Cohen’s reputation for spending. That’s another $51.3MM in taxes, bringing New York’s total projected tax bill to a staggering $80.7MM.
Of course, that’s before considering the possibility of adding another megadeal. Correa is the best free agent still on the board. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR forecasted a nine-year, $288MM contract. The two top shortstops already off the board — Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts — each best our predictions, with Bogaerts’ $280MM contract coming in well above most expectations. In light of the strength of the market, Correa pushing past $300MM now seems likely, and one could argue for him to approach the $360MM guarantee Aaron Judge received from the Yankees given Correa’s youth and greater defensive value.
Even if we conservatively pencil Correa in for the pre-offseason prediction of $288MM over nine years, that’d come out to a $32MM annual salary. New York would be taxed at 90% on top of that, effectively making it a $60.8MM commitment to the star shortstop for next season. It’d be the kind of move a team has never made for an individual player, and again, that now seems a rather pessimistic view of Correa’s earning power. Certainly, the deal could push longer than nine years and lower the annual salary somewhat — Turner and Bogaerts each received 11 years despite being older than Correa — but any permutation of the contract would involve the team investing an immense sum. Cohen has clearly established himself as an owner unconcerned with precedent, and it’d be foolish to count the Mets out on any free agent at this point.
The Mets don’t need a shortstop, of course, with Francisco Lindor locked in as their long-term answer at the position. Third base isn’t accounted for by a star, with veteran Eduardo Escobar coming off an average season and top prospect Brett Baty still unproven at the MLB level. Relying on Escobar and Baty wouldn’t be a disaster, but installing Correa alongside Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Lindor would lock in All-Star caliber players everywhere on the infield.
Beyond the Mets, the Giants and incumbent Twins are reported to be prioritizing Correa at this stage of the offseason. They’re widely viewed as the top suitors, while teams like the Cubs and Red Sox have been more loosely linked to him. Dansby Swanson, who’s drawing attention from many of the same clubs, remains available as the clear second-best position player still on the open market.
Giants Made Offer To Brandon Nimmo
It’ll come as little consolation to Giants fans, but the team did have an offer on the table for top remaining free agent outfielder Brandon Nimmo before he wound up re-signing with the Mets for eight years and $162MM, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. As Puma notes, it appears that once owner Steve Cohen got personally involved, Nimmo’s return to the Mets materialized quickly. It’s not known what terms the Giants were offering Nimmo.
It’s the second-straight outfielder the Giants have missed out on, having aggressively pursued Aaron Judge before he ultimately return to New York on a nine-year, $360MM deal. They have added Mitch Haniger on a three-year, $43.5MM deal but from the outset of the off-season they’ve been strongly linked with the top free agents. They could still sign one, and they’re one of the teams (along with the Twins and Cubs, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman) that are heavily rumored to be in on Carlos Correa.
The outfield has been an area of focus for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi this winter. Haniger’s addition bolsters their group, but Zaidi’s wanted two outfield signings. Now that they’ve missed out on the clear top two options available, it’ll be interesting to see whether they look for another outfielder, or go with a mix of Haniger, Austin Slater and Mike Yastrzemski and divert their resources to other options like Correa, or a starting pitcher.
If they do continue with their plans to add another outfielder, Andrew Benintendi is probably the top free agent available now. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $54MM deal for him, and given the Giants’ payroll space they could conceivably go after someone like that while still having space to pursue a long-term deal with Correa. They could also look to the trade market, and approach the Pirates about a deal to bring Bryan Reynolds back to the team that drafted him in 2016. While Reynolds is only due to make $6.75MM in 2023, he’s under club control for three more seasons and Pittsburgh looks to have a sky high asking price for him.
The Giants have a projected payroll of about $139MM as things stand, but they also have in the region of $60MM+ coming off the books at the end of next season. Given their payroll has stretched north of $200MM in recent seasons, they do have plenty of room to make a number of additions over the next season or two.
Dodgers “Are Not Pursuing” Carlos Correa
The departure of Trea Turner to the Phillies has left the Dodgers with a bit of a hole at shortstop, but it seems they won’t be filling that spot with top free agent option Carlos Correa. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the team is not pursuing the former Astro and Twin, in part due to his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing team of 2017 that beat the Dodgers in the World Series, and how that might upset a large portion of their fanbase.
The financial aspect of signing a player like Correa is playing a part too as the 28-year-old could command a deal in excess of $300MM. The Dodgers’ payroll is on track to be significantly lower than in 2022, and they certainly have the financial muscle to take on a contract like that, but they’re also waiting on whether or not Major League Baseball opts to uphold Trevor Bauer‘s two-year suspension for violating the league’s policy on sexual assault and domestic violence.
Should the suspension be upheld, the Dodgers won’t owe anything to Bauer, but if it’s overturned or reduced the Dodgers will be on the hook for all or part of his salary. As Bill Shaikin of the LA Times notes, there’s $60MM of salary at stake, although that number could rise to as much as $100MM, as the Dodgers are a third-time luxury tax offender. As Rosenthal notes, it’s enough cost uncertainty for the Dodgers to be wary of adding significant payroll this winter.
The news that they’re not pursuing Correa doesn’t necessarily rule them out of spending on a shortstop, and although reports have indicated there’s momentum towards Xander Bogaerts returning to the Red Sox, the Dodgers have been connected with him earlier in the off-season. Dansby Swanson is the other top shortstop available, while lower profile options in free agency include Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus. Alternatively, they could just plug Gavin Lux in at shortstop and seek to replace the lost offense from Turner in other areas.
Such areas could include center field, as well as adding another middle-of-the-order bat and a starting pitcher. Rosenthal notes that the team is looking to rely more heavily on young, minimum salary players this year, and free agent additions would be more modestly priced, and cites Kevin Kiermaier and J.D. Martinez as options, while the team has been connected to Andrew McCutchen recently. The Dodgers do have the likes of Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch and Jacob Amaya on the roster all with less than a year of service time, and they could be candidates to see increased playing time next season.
For Correa, while having a big market team like the Dodgers involved in the bidding certainly doesn’t hurt negotiations, he’ll still find plenty of suitors. The Twins have been aggressive in trying to re-sign him, while the Cubs have already met with him at the Winter Meetings and have the payroll to take on a big, long-term contract. The Giants are also a team to watch now that they’ve missed out on Aaron Judge, as they too have the deep pockets and payroll space required to sign Correa to a lengthy contract.
Padres Made Strong Offer For Aaron Judge
3:22pm: Although Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic doesn’t say exactly how far the Padres went in their Judge pursuit, he reports the team did not offer Judge $400MM.
9:25am: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Padres’ offer was $400MM over 10 years.
9:15am: The Aaron Judge bidding was widely believed to be a two-team battle between the Yankees and Giants. In the end, Judge is returning to the Bronx but there was a surprise third team that sat down at the table. Judge reportedly flew to the Winter Meetings in San Diego and met with the Yankees, Giants and Padres, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Padres came in with a “significant” offer, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Judge turned down higher offers elsewhere to return to the Yanks. A report from Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic indicates that Judge met with Padres owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller but “it is believed they never got the chance to make a formal bid.”
The fact that the Padres came close on Judge is noteworthy since this is the second time this week that they have reportedly been willing to put a massive deal in front of a player. After Trea Turner signed with the Phillies for $300MM over 11 years, it was reported that the Friars actually made Turner a higher offer of $342MM. The specifics of that offer aren’t known, so it’s possible that it contained deferrals or options that would change the context, but it was surely a huge number regardless. The details of what they floated to Judge aren’t known either, but since Judge is in agreement with the Yankees for $360MM over nine years, it can be fairly assumed that the Padres were willing to get somewhere in that vicinity.
The Padres have never really been considered heavy hitters when it comes to baseball spending, but they have completely changed that reputation in recent years. Up until recent years, they had only once had an Opening Day payroll in nine-figure territory, which came back in 2015, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They started ramping that up with big free agents deals for Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, a massive extension for Fernando Tatis Jr., and a whole host of trades for stars on other teams. As a result, their Opening Day payrolls jumped to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM in 2022 and they ended up paying the luxury tax in both of those years thanks in part to in-season trades.
This week’s offers to Turner and Judge seem to indicate that they still haven’t reached the ceiling of where they are willing to go. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $210MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $230MM. Signing Turner or Judge would have likely adding something around $30-40MM to each of those numbers. It’s possible they could have then looked to lower them by making trades, but they also still have other needs on the roster to address, such as filling out their starting rotation. Since the club is likely to be a third-time payor in 2023, they will face escalating penalties this time around. Any spending over $233MM will result in a 50% tax, with a 62% tax for going over $253MM and a 95% tax on spending over $273MM.
The question now will be whether the Padres will now dedicate those resources elsewhere or if they viewed Turner and Judge as especially elite talents that were worth stretching their comfort zone. Though many top free agents have flown off the board this week, there are still plenty of them left. With Turner gone, three of the “big four” shortstops remain in Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Signing a shortstop is a bit of a clunky fit on the roster since the Padres already have Ha-Seong Kim and Tatis, but they were willing to do it with Turner, perhaps by moving Tatis to the outfield. Would they pursue the same plan with one of the other shortstops? There’s also the starting rotation to think about, since the Friars lost Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency. While Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are now signed, would the Padres consider a big splash on the last remaining ace in Carlos Rodón? With Judge off the board, the best remaining outfielder in free agency is Brandon Nimmo. Will the Padres turn their attentions to him?
Similar questions will now be asked about the Giants, as they were surely near Judge’s final price as well. Morosi reports that Judge had offers, plural, beyond what he accepted from the Yankees. Since the reporting indicates this came down to a three-team race, that seems to imply that both the Padres and the Giants were willing to go beyond the $360MM figure Judge eventually accepted.
Unlike the Padres, the Giants still have plenty of room before on their ledger before thinking about the luxury tax. Roster Resource has their payroll at $139MM with a CBT number of $156MM. Even if they added about $40MM or so with a Judge signing, they would have been well shy of the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. It’s been reported for months that the Giants were interested in pursuing Judge as well as the marquee shortstops in this offseason. It now seems quite likely that they will pivot from Judge to those shortstops and be connected to them in rumors in the weeks to come. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that this is indeed the plan, with Carlos Correa atop their list, though they will also be looking for another starting pitcher and outfielder, to pair with yesterday’s signing of Mitch Haniger.
Giants Showing Interest In Sean Manaea
The Giants are showing interest in free agent starter Sean Manaea, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last night the team was seeking rotation help.
Manaea’s one of a number of mid-tier free agent starting pitchers available. The left-hander is a bit of a bounceback candidate after a rough second half with the Padres, although he’s typically provided teams with solid mid-rotation production. Manaea worked to an ERA between 3.59 and 4.37 during his four full seasons with the Athletics. Oakland’s spacious home ballpark and excellent team defenses certainly helped him, but the Indiana State product also consistently pounded the strike zone and tended to induce ground-balls at a decent clip.
That typically effective track record led San Diego to acquire him from the A’s this past spring. Manaea was expected to fortify an already strong rotation, and he mostly did so through his first few months at Petco Park. At the All-Star Break, he carried a 4.11 ERA with an above-average 23.9% strikeout rate. From the second half onwards, however, he was tagged for more than six earned runs per nine. By year’s end, he owned a career-worst 4.96 mark, and he was shelled for five runs in 1 1/3 innings during his sole postseason outing.
It’s certainly not the way the 30-year-old (31 in February) envisioned closing out his platform year. At the same time, there’s also reason to believe he’ll still have a strong market. Manaea’s strikeout and walk rates in the second half remained good (22.1% and 4.7%, respectively). He was brutally home run prone down the stretch, allowing 2.35 longballs per nine innings. That’s obviously untenable, but he’s unlikely to surrender homers on nearly 19% of his fly balls over a larger sample. Manaea tends to allow a lot of hard contact, but the 2022 campaign was the first in which that translated to serious problems keeping the ball in the yard.
That could point to Manaea being a target for teams with a pitcher-friendly home environment. The Giants have one of the league’s worst outfield defenses, but they expect to bring in a pair of outfielders from outside the organization this winter. Oracle Park also remained one of the more difficult venues for hitters to clear the walls. San Francisco has had a fair bit of success in recent years bringing in starting pitching from the middle of the free agent market. Players like Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani have each done well as bounceback candidates with the Giants, although it’s certainly not guaranteed Manaea will have to take a one-year pillow deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN floated that possibility last week, although the lack of a qualifying offer and the southpaw’s quality strikeout and walk numbers could lead to decent multi-year interest.
Meanwhile, Slusser adds the Giants have engaged representative Scott Boras at this week’s Winter Meetings regarding clients Carlos Correa and Brandon Nimmo. Both are known to be San Francisco targets, with Correa reportedly the team’s preferred option of this winter’s shortstop class. Of course, either player would seem to take a backseat on the priority list for Aaron Judge, to whom the Giants have reportedly offered a deal in the $360MM range. It’s theoretically possible the Giants could remain aggressive after Nimmo even if they land Judge, but it’s hard to envision them nabbing both Judge and Correa — the two top free agents remaining.
Padres Unlikely To Pursue Other Shortstops After Missing Out On Trea Turner
The Padres’ bid to sign Trea Turner — which reportedly included a larger offer than he accepted in Philadelphia, even after accounting for California’s higher income tax — caught plenty of fans and pundits off-guard. The Padres already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth as options in the infield, and San Diego also has a pair of $300MM players on the roster in Machado and Tatis (though the former could opt out following the 2023 season).
There’s been speculation (here included) about whether Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will pivot and look into the remaining All-Star shortstops in free agency, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Turner was viewed as a special case and that the Padres were singularly interested in him, rather than adding another shortstop to the mix. As such, it’s unlikely that the Friars will pursue any of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson in the wake of being spurned by Turner. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin does write that the Padres have checked in with Bogaerts this offseason, but Lin adds that Turner was the team’s “clear” preference. MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell adds that the Padres have not spoken to Kim or Cronenworth about a position change at this time.
Preller acknowledged the team’s interest in Turner and the disappointment in not landing him when speaking with Acee and others on the San Diego beat Monday evening. Part of Turner’s appeal, as Preller explained, was his athleticism and experience playing positions other than shortstop, which the Friars believed could create some more flexible lineup choices.
Even if the Padres are out of the mix (or, at best, on the periphery) for the remaining shortstops, the strong bid for Turner is still plenty notable. It underscores that even with a star-studded roster and a payroll that many expected to be reaching its maximum levels, Padres ownership is willing to spend at levels commensurate with the sport’s very biggest financial powers. The Padres paid the luxury tax in 2022, have a projected $210MM bottom-line payroll in 2023 and a projected $230MM in luxury-tax obligations, per Roster Resource, but were apparently still content to put down a $300MM+ offer on Turner.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that San Diego will pivot and dive headlong into the bidding for Aaron Judge, but it also at least opens the door for speculation about such top-of-the-market pursuits. Preller spoke of a corner bat and a starting pitcher as his top needs. Acee suggests that San Diego has looked into reunions with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury in addition to the recently non-tendered Dominic Smith, illustrating the vast breadth of possibilities the team is considering with Turner now in Philadelphia.
Cubs Have Met With Carlos Correa At Winter Meetings
The Cubs have had discussions with Carlos Correa in the past 24 hours, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, general manager Carter Hawkins and manager David Ross all attended the meeting. Levine also notes the team has had recent discussions with both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson – the other two top shortstops remaining after Trea Turner agreed to a deal with the Phillies.
Both Correa and Bogaerts in particular have been strongly linked to the Cubs this off-season, and although it’s not yet known whether or not either has received an offer, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times relays information from Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer’s media availability stating the team has made multiple offers to free agents this winter, and that the team is heavily focused on free agency over trades at the moment.
In the wake of Turner coming off the board on an 11-year, $300MM deal, there seems sure be a greater sense of urgency among the teams seeking to sign one of the top free agent shortstops. The Cubs have long been speculated as a possible landing spot for one of the “big four” (now big three) shortstops. They’re a team with plenty of financial muscle that’s looking to make a splash and return to winning ways, so inking a marquee free agent makes plenty of sense.
Correa only turned 28 in September, so he’s still young enough to be a long-term piece for a Cubs team that may not have all the pieces it needs to compete for a championship in 2023. Correa also comes with the added benefit of avoiding draft pick compensation, as he already received one last winter before signing his short-term deal with the Twins.
He’s also coming off yet another elite season, one in which he was worth 4.4 fWAR with the Twins. He slashed .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs for a wRC+ of 140. He experienced a dip in defensive ratings, but was still worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved, though that was the lowest mark of his career.
MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $288MM deal for Correa, although in light of Turner’s deal with Philadelphia, it’s not hard to imagine Correa’s contract heading north of the $300MM mark. The Cubs currently have a projected payroll of $127MM, per RosterResource, which, for a team that has seen payrolls in excess of $200MM recently, leaves plenty of room for a Correa-sized addition and more.
Of course, Correa’s market is expected to be robust, with the Twins making a strong effort to re-sign him, and the Giants and other teams likely to be interested. With that in mind, it makes sense that the team is remaining engaged with Swanson and Bogaerts as well. Levine reports that Chicago met with Bogaerts ten days ago. Swanson is a year older than Correa, while Bogaerts is 30, and while both are elite players in their own right, both will probably command smaller commitments than Correa.
While there’s been plenty of talk of the Cubs signing one of the top shortstops, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the team could sign two of the shortstops. In that case, it’d likely be Bogaerts and Swanson signing, rather than Correa and one of the other two, and it’d be contingent on Bogaerts moving to third base. Needless to say, with the widespread interest in all three players, it’d be a challenge for the Cubs to win the bidding for two of them, but it’s an interesting added layer to consider.
Twins Rumors: Correa, Arraez, Rotation, Catcher
The Twins are set for another in-person meeting with Scott Boras this week to discuss Carlos Correa, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North Radio and 5 Eyewitness News reports in his latest podcast (Correa/Twins talk beginning at 10:10). The Twins have already discussed various contract structures with Boras and Correa, reportedly putting forth multiple offers.
Correa, of course, has a broad range of interest, having been connected to the Giants, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Orioles and Dodgers, among others. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote last week that Correa could be the first of the four big-name shortstops to come off the board, calling his market “excellent” and noting that the Twins have been “making a strong push to re-sign him and build their franchise around” Correa. If, however, Correa ultimately signs elsewhere, Minnesota’s upcoming meeting with Boras could serve dual purposes; Boras also represents Xander Bogaerts, who is reportedly of interest to the Twins in the event that Correa departs.
While Correa is the focus at this point, pitching upgrades have been a perennial need at Target Field as well. The team has a decent rotation group consisting of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober, but each of Gray, Mahle and Maeda can become a free agent next winter. (Maeda is also returning from 2021 Tommy John surgery, so his workload could well be monitored.) The Twins have quite a few MLB-ready arms behind that group — Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino — and could also get Chris Paddack back from Tommy John surgery next summer.
That said, the potential departure of three starters next winter and lack of proven options behind them at least has the Twins thinking creatively about ways to add high-end, controllable pitching. To that end, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that Minnesota’s front office has at least discussed the possibility of trading reigning AL batting champion Luis Arraez — if the deal could net them a high-end rotation upgrade. To be clear, there’s no indication that the team plans to aggressively shop Arraez.
Arraez, 25, enjoyed an outstanding .316/.375/.420 output at the plate in 2022, tallying eight home runs, 31 doubles and a triple in 603 plate appearances. Since making his MLB debut in 2019, he’s been one of baseball’s hardest players to strike out, fanning in just 8.3% of his plate appearances and walking at an even-higher 8.7% clip. Arraez’s bat-to-ball skills are practically unmatched, and he’s been fairly disciplined, walking at a roughly league-average clip.
Defensively, Arraez climbed through the minors as a second baseman but has settled into a more nomadic position on the Twins’ roster. With Jorge Polanco locked in at second base (and unlikely to move back to shortstop, where he was a sub-par defender even before a pair of right ankle surgeries), Arraez has logged time at both infield corners, at designated hitter and in left field over the past few seasons. The Twins deployed him primarily at first base in 2022, due in part to injuries to Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff. Despite a lack of experience, he handled the position quite well in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (2.2) and Outs Above Average (1).
Excellent as Arraez is on the whole, however, it might be tough for him alone to net the Twins the type of impact arm they’d require to actually consider moving him. At this point, while Arraez is still young, he’s already “only” under club control for another three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $5MM next season in his second year of arbitration as a Super Two player.
Given that the point of even considering an Arraez deal would be to acquire pitching they can control beyond the upcoming season, they’d likely be looking for at least two years of control in said starting pitcher; giving up three years of Arraez isn’t likely to return a high-end starter with multiple years of club control remaining — particularly not when (as Hayes lays out in greater detail), Arraez has a history of knee troubles dating back to a torn ACL as a minor leaguer in 2017. The Twins could add in some minor league talent to help sweeten any deal, but that’d only further complicate the equation. It’s certainly of note that they’re open to the idea, and it’d be a surprise if other teams didn’t reach out to see just what it might take to pry Arraez loose, but an actual trade seems like a long shot at this time.
The Twins’ other focus as they look toward the 2023 season and beyond has been behind the plate. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said he’d like to add another catcher to the mix, and the Twins have spoken at multiple points about wanting to deploy a timeshare behind the plate, splitting time fairly evenly between incumbent Ryan Jeffers — who thrives against left-handed pitching — and a new acquisition. A left-handed bat would best fit the bill, but any catcher who can provide some more offense against right-handed pitching would make some sense.
Wolfson suggests that the Twins don’t appear to be after Willson Contreras as of right now but have spoken to the Athletics, Blue Jays and Braves about their catching depth. The A’s are expected to trade Sean Murphy as the next step in their rebuilding process, while the Jays are dealing with something of a surplus, having Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno as MLB-caliber options on the 40-man roster. Atlanta has Travis d’Arnaud signed for $8MM this coming season plus a 2024 option at the same price, and William Contreras‘ breakout could make it easier to part with d’Arnaud, speculatively speaking. The Braves also have veteran Manny Pina signed at a year and $4.5MM, but he played just five games last year before requiring season-ending wrist surgery and, as a career-long defensive-minded backup, wouldn’t fit the Twins’ stated preference of adding a catcher who can provide more offense.
As far as free agents go, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins are among the many teams with some interest in Christian Vazquez. While Vazquez is similar to Jeffers as a right-handed hitter who handles lefties better than righties, his career platoon splits are more even than those of Jeffers, who tattoos lefties but has been vastly below-average against right-handed opponents.
Vazquez, 32, is regarded as a premium defensive option as well, which further adds to his appeal. He’s thrown out a hefty 34% of opponents who attempt to steal against him, consistently drawn plus framing marks, and more broadly has been credited with 51 Defensive Runs Saved in parts of eight MLB seasons. Vazquez was a glove-first player for much of his early big league tenure, but dating back to 2019 he’s turned in a .271/.318/.416 batting line. We predicted a three-year, $27MM deal for Vazquez on our annual Top 50 Free Agent rankings, and Rosenthal reports that Vazquez is indeed likely to command a three-year deal based on the current interest.
However things shake out, it’s shaping up to be another active offseason for the Twins, who are going to be quite involved in both the shortstop and (to a lesser extent) catcher markets in the coming weeks. With their current projected payroll of about $98MM sitting more than $40MM shy of where they opened the 2023 season — and no indication that number serves as a ceiling — the Twins should have the latitude to pursue just about any target they choose, but it’s quickly become clear that their general offseason direction hinges on Correa.
Giants Have Carlos Correa As Top Option Among Free Agent Shortstops
The Giants are one of the many teams shopping at the top of the shortstop market this winter, and Carlos Correa “is atop the front office’s list,” according to NBC Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic. Earlier reports had hinted that Correa was San Francisco’s preferred choice among the star shortstops since the Giants were going to actually use Correa at shortstop — the Giants are prepared to move Brandon Crawford to third base to accommodate a Correa signing, but if Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson were signed, Crawford would remain at shortstop and Turner/Swanson would play second base.
With so many clubs exploring the markets of the “big four” of Correa, Turner, Swanson, and Xander Bogaerts, naturally there have been several reports (and perhaps some gamesmanship or smokescreens) concerning which players are preferred by particular teams, or who a team’s second choice might be if the top option signs elsewhere. The Twins, for example, are prioritizing keeping Correa in Minnesota, but are open to pursuing Bogaerts as a backup plan. The Phillies have reportedly had either Turner or Bogaerts as their top choice, but will head to the Winter Meetings and meet with the agents of all four shortstops. Meanwhile, the Braves want to sign Swanson but only Swanson, and aren’t expected to look into Turner, Bogaerts, or Correa if Swanson departs Atlanta.
Correa’s market may be a little limited by his asking price, since as the both the youngest of the top shortstops and the only one not linked to draft compensation via the qualifying offer, Correa might command the biggest contract of the group. MLBTR ranked Correa second on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, predicting a nine-year, $288MM pact for the two-time All-Star as he enters his age-28 season.
Given the Giants’ relative lack of future payroll commitments, they can somewhat easily fit a mega-deal for Correa into their budget and still have the financial means to pursue other needs. The Giants already used some of their payroll flexibility in retaining Joc Pederson via the qualifying offer, as San Francisco rather surprisingly issued the $19.65MM deal to the outfielder and he accepted the one-year payday. While president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has taken a somewhat conservative approach to spending and contract size during his first four years in San Francisco, the expectation is that the Giants will splurge on at least one big signing this winter.
Of course, that big signing could well be Aaron Judge, as the Giants remain as one of the chief suitors for the reigning AL MVP. To this end, Pavlovic echoes the sentiment that the Giants aren’t likely to pivot to Correa or any of the star shortstops until Judge decides on his new team.
Phillies To Meet With Top Four Free Agent Shortstops
The Phillies have meetings scheduled with all four of the top free agent shortstops, reports Jayson Stark of the Athletic. They’ll sit down with the representatives for each of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts before the Winter Meetings kick off in earnest next Monday.
Philadelphia is widely seen as likely to land one member of that group, with reports suggesting they’re particularly dialed in on Turner. They’ve also been previously linked to Bogaerts, and it’s easy enough to see why they’d cover all bases in meeting with Correa and Swanson as well. The Phils have a need for middle infield help to pair with youngster Bryson Stott, and adding one of the top shortstops available is the most straightforward way to achieving that.
The expectation is that Correa and Turner will command the two largest contracts, with Boagerts and Swanson coming in behind them. Correa is the youngest of the group at age 28, while Turner has the most consistent offensive track record over the past couple seasons and is arguably the game’s top baserunner. Bogaerts is a similar caliber of hitter to Correa and Turner but has faced some questions about his ability to stick at shortstop into his mid-30’s. Swanson’s coming off a Gold Glove-winning season that he paired with arguably the best offensive showing of his career, but his general track record at the plate is behind the other three.
All four players are commanding ample interest and could top $150MM on the open market. The Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox and Orioles are among the teams that have been tied to at least one of the shortstops available. Turner, who’s reportedly the Phillies’ primary target, has been linked to a pair of the NL’s other top teams.
Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Padres were among the clubs with interest in Turner, and Rosenthal and Dennis Lin at the Athletic report tonight that San Diego has already met with Turner and his representatives twice this offseason. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune also characterizes the club’s interest in Turner as legitimate. Acee suggests that San Diego actually signing one of the top shortstops remains a long shot, considering the Friars already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth as middle infield options. However, the Union-Tribune writes that San Diego could put Cronenworth on the trade market to alleviate the logjam if they surprisingly landed one of the top shortstops. The Friars have also been tied to Bogaerts at multiple points this offseason.
The Dodgers have been connected to both Turner and Bogaerts on various occasions. Juan Toribio of MLB.com wrote yesterday that L.A. and Turner have spoken in recent weeks. Toribio suggests the Dodgers could be reluctant to meet Turner’s asking price, but it seems likely the sides will remain in contact as the Winter Meetings approach.
Continuing with the theme, the Twins have a sit-down scheduled with Correa in the next few days, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Minnesota has maintained their interest in retaining Correa throughout the offseason, and they’ve reportedly floated him a number of long-term deals.