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Latest On Cardinals’ Free Agent Targets

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The Cardinals have yet to have much engagement with the offseason’s top-tier free agents, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  This relates to both starting pitchers and position players, as in regards to the top of the shortstop market, the Cards “have remained on the outskirts of the shortstop discussions, staying aware but not plunging in,” Goold writes.

This isn’t to say the the Cardinals aren’t active, as the team is focusing on its need behind the plate.  Cards officials will be meeting with the agents for Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez, and such other free agent catchers as Omar Narvaez and Mike Zunino have also been explored by the team, as well as trade candidates like the Athletics’ Sean Murphy or any of the Blue Jays’ three backstops.

Catcher is the most pressing need for the Cardinals, so it isn’t surprising that the team might be looking to get its catching situation settled before moving onto other targets.  With Adam Wainwright re-sigining and Nolan Arenado passing on his opt-out clause, St. Louis had two major bits of business settled before the offseason even officially began, perhaps giving the team some extra flexibility to proceed a bit more slowly on other matters.

Signing Contreras would certainly count as a headline-grabbing move, as the longtime Cubs catcher is projected to land a four-year, $84MM deal, and would also cost draft pick compensation since he rejected Chicago’s qualifying offer.  $84MM would count as the second-biggest contract the Cardinals have ever given to a free agent, behind only Matt Holliday’s $120MM deal from the 2009-10 offseason.  That deal was also a re-signing, as Holliday had become a familiar quantity to the Cardinals after spending the last two-plus months of the 2009 season in a St. Louis uniform.

In short, making a big free agent splash usually isn’t the preferred strategy of Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.  This obviously doesn’t rule out Contreras altogether, but it might make St. Louis more open to trade talks with the A’s or Jays in the catching search.  That said, signing Contreras for just money and a draft pick might be preferable to giving up a big trade package for Murphy, Alejandro Kirk, or Gabriel Moreno.

On the pitching side, the Cardinals are known to be looking at re-signing with Jose Quintana.  For the bullpen, the Cards are targeting high-strikeout relievers — as Goold notes, the team is looking to add more swing-and-miss after finishing near the bottom of the league in strikeout percentage.  St. Louis is looking at pitching options both in North America and overseas.

Cubs Interested In Christian Vázquez, Omar Narváez

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Earlier this week, catcher Willson Contreras was one of 12 players to reject a qualifying offer, officially allowing the Cubs to recoup draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere. As a team that did not pay the competitive balance tax or receive revenue sharing, the Cubs would be entitled to an extra pick just before the third round. That seems to be their goal, as contract talks with Contreras never seemed to gain much momentum and they are now discussing other backstops such as free agents Omar Narváez and Christian Vázquez, according to a report from Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. There’s nothing yet to indicate they have reached out to the players or their representatives, but the fact that other catchers have been “discussed internally” by the Cubs is nonetheless notable.

Since a Contreras reunion doesn’t seem to be in the cards, the Cubs are currently lined up to go into 2023 with three catchers on their 40-man roster: Yan Gomes, P.J. Higgins and Miguel Amaya. Gomes is a veteran going into his 12th MLB season, which will also be the second of the two-year, $13MM deal he signed with the Cubs a year ago. Once that deal was signed, speculation mounted that the Cubs were set to deal Contreras, though that didn’t come pass. Gomes took a step back at the plate in 2022 but was still solid on the other side of the ball. He hit .235/.260/.365 for a wRC+ of 73 but posted 5 Defensive Runs Saved in just 86 games. He could still be a factor for 2023 but he’ll turn 36 during the year and then become a free agent again, meaning he likely won’t be part of the club’s long-term plans.

Higgins, 30 in May, has done some hitting in the minors but hasn’t been able to transfer that to the big leagues just yet. In 83 career games, his batting line is .210/.291/.348 for a wRC+ of 83. He posted a -6 DRS behind the plate and actually spent more time at the infield corners, meaning he’s likely considered more of a third string/emergency catcher.

Amaya, 24 in March, could be a long-term solution but has question marks in the short term. He’s considered one of the club’s top 15 prospects by both Baseball America and FanGraphs. However, he dealt with forearm issues in 2021 and ultimately required Tommy John surgery. He returned to the field this year and got into 40 games in the minors but hasn’t played anything close to a full season since 2019 and has yet to reach Triple-A. It’s possible he gets to the MLB level in 2023 but it doesn’t seem like something that should be expected or relied upon.

Even though the club seems content to let Contreras walk and recoup the draft pick when he signs elsewhere, they will likely need to do something to supplement this group. Vázquez is arguably the second-best free agent backstop behind Contreras, having been Boston’s regular catcher over the past few years. He’s hit around league average in that time, producing a .271/.318/.416 batting line from 2019 through the present for a wRC+ of 95. He’s also provided quality defense and is considered to be an all-around contributor. He was traded to the Astros at the deadline and served as Martin Maldonado’s backup in Houston, though he’s looking for a full-time job again going forward. That perhaps make him and the Cubs a less-than-perfect fit, given the presence of Gomes, though it’s possible Vázquez would be fine with sharing time in a similar manner to what Contreras and Gomes did in 2022. MLBTR predicted Vázquez could earn a contract of $27MM over three years.

As for Narváez, 31 in February, he will likely be attainable with a lesser commitment than Vázquez would take. Considered a bat-first catcher for the early part of his career, he came to the Brewers and flipped that. He’s posted strong defensive numbers in each of the past three years but hit .233/.318/.350 for a wRC+ of 85. However, as a left-handed hitter, he would pair well with the Cubs’ incumbent catchers, all of whom hit from the right side. He didn’t have strong platoon splits in 2022 but his career numbers definitely favor his work against righties.

Although Narváez and Vázquez were mentioned by name, the Cubs have surely discussed various other scenarios. The rest of the free agent market includes names like Gary Sánchez, Austin Hedges and Roberto Pérez. There’s also the trade market to consider, with Sean Murphy of the Athletics frequently mentioned in rumors and the Blue Jays looking to cash in their surplus. Whichever route they take, the Cubs shouldn’t have financial concerns. The ongoing rebuild means their current payroll is well below previous seasons, and none of the non-Contreras options will require huge expenditures regardless. They will have competition, however, with the Cardinals being one team that’s already known to be looking for catching help.

Mozeliak: Cardinals Seeking Catching Help, Left-Handed Bat

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The Cardinals bid farewell to a pair of franchise icons at season’s end, as Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina officially closed the books on their playing career. For the first time in nearly two decades, St. Louis enters an offseason unsure of who’ll receive the bulk of the playing time behind the dish the following season. While the Cardinals have in-house options in Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera, president of baseball operations made clear in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week that he’s actively exploring the market for catching upgrades.

“Clearly, with Yadi retiring, we know we need to upgrade at catching — especially when you think about the day-to-day demands of that role,” said Mozeliak. “That’s something that we’re going to look at, whether it’s trade or free agency.”

Asked about interest in top catcher Willson Contreras, Mozeliak declined to publicly comment on the free agent’s potential market, calling that a “dangerous game” and instead simply doubled down on interest in catching help: “We are in the catching market.”

Contreras, a longtime division rival, is this year’s top free-agent catcher, with former Red Sox and Astros backstop Christian Vazquez the clear No. 2 option. They’re not the only names available, of course, but they’re the two clear-cut starting catchers coming off strong 2022 campaigns. Rebound candidates include Omar Narvaez, Mike Zunino and Tucker Barnhart, all of whom had down 2022 seasons but were quite recently considered quality starting options behind the dish.

As Mozeliak alluded to, the trade market should produce a handful of alternatives. Oakland’s Sean Murphy will be available, though the asking price for three years of his services will be understandably steep. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have a trio of starting-caliber catchers on the roster in Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and top prospect Gabriel Moreno. Jansen, with two years of remaining club control to Kirk’s five and Moreno’s six, is generally seen as the likeliest of the group to move.

Whatever path the Cards take, an addition at catcher feels like a foregone conclusion. Knizner, 27, has served as the primary backup to Molina in recent seasons and managed only a .204/.292/.288 slash through 536 big league plate appearances. Optimists might suggest that he’d improve with more consistent playing time than he received Molina and his iron-man approach to catching, but Knizner has also drawn sub-par defensive marks along the way. The 22-year-old Herrera went 2-for-18 in his MLB debut this year but turned in a solid .268/.374/.396 line in Triple-A. Still, a team hoping to vie for a return to the postseason could use more certainty behind the dish, perhaps easing the well-regarded Herrera into a larger opportunity — as opposed to simply throwing him into a trial-by-fire run at the starting job.

Catching help isn’t all that’s on the menu this winter for Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the front office, though. Mozeliak didn’t specify a position but did voice hope of adding a left-handed bat to help balance out his lineup. Given that most of the available catching options are right-handed bats — Narvaez and the switch-hitting Barnhart being the exceptions — it’s likely the Cards will have to make an additional move to achieve that goal.

“When you look at our offense, trying to find something from the left side to try to help bolster our day-to-day lineup is something we think we could benefit from,” said Mozeliak. “…”When you think about our club from the left side, we could just use a little extra pop. Some of our better hitters are right-handed, and so we’re just looking for more balance in our lineup.

The Cards aren’t totally devoid of left-handed bats but do skew more toward the right side of the dish — particularly when it comes to the team’s power hitters. Lars Nootbaar showed some impressive power from the left side of the dish and likely secured himself a spot in the 2023 outfield, but he’s the main source of left-handed pop the Cardinals have at the moment. Rookie of the Year finalist Brendan Donovan had an outstanding all-around season but hit just five homers and posted a lowly .097 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Switch-hitters Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson were both vastly better hitters from the right side of the plate than the left. Twenty-two-year-old Nolan Gorman certainly has power from the left side of the plate but struggled increasingly as his rookie season wore on.

Last offseason’s signing of Corey Dickerson seemed intended to provide some help in this space, and while Dickerson rebounded from an awful start to finish with a roughly league-average batting line, he’s again a free agent and the Cardinals are surely hoping for more than average output from whoever is acquired to fill this role. The free-agent market isn’t exactly teeming with productive left-handed hitters who could be plugged into the St. Louis lineup, though veterans like Michael Brantley, Michael Conforto and old friend Matt Carpenter are all available. The former two will both be returning from shoulder surgery, whereas the latter enjoyed an otherworldly rebound with the Yankees before suffering a fractured foot that derailed his comeback effort.

As is so often heard from baseball operations leaders, Mozeliak also touched on the adage that a team can never have too much pitching, noting that “you’re always just one injury away from being in a tough spot.” While he didn’t characterize the Cardinals’ search for rotation depth as quite the same level of priority as a catcher and left-handed bat, Mozeliak suggested that the Cardinals will “keep the pulse” of the starting pitching market as the offseason progresses.

With Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals have at least six rotation options — Mozeliak also listed Drew VerHagen as a potential depth option there — but bolstering that group with a swingman or some veterans on minor league deals could well be on the eventual to-do list.

Christian Vazquez Eyeing More Playing Time

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Astros catcher Christian Vazquez will be a free agent this off-season, and has indicated his biggest priority will be finding a team willing to hand him the starting job.

Vazquez, 32, started 24 of a possible 58 matches after being traded from the Red Sox to Houston for minor leaguers Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez on deadline day. The team usually opts for Martin Maldonado to catch Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers, meaning starts for Vazquez haven’t been as plentiful as in Boston.

“It was hard and it’s still hard,” Vazquez told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “But I’ll be a free agent after the postseason and I can choose where I want to go. Everybody knows that.”

The Puerto Rico native had been with the Red Sox since being drafted in the ninth round in 2008, and had been their starting catcher since 2018. He put together a combined .262/.311/.389 line during his time in Boston, and graded out as an above-average catcher defensively. His bat and ball skills are well measured, but he’s also widely regarded as a strong leader and positive clubhouse presence, too. Vazquez’ offensive numbers dropped significantly after the trade, and he hit just .250/.278/.308 across 108 plate appearances, but given the sudden drop in playing time perhaps it’s forgivable that Vazquez struggled to find consistency initially. Nonetheless, he’ll figure to do well in free agency as one of the better catchers available.

Bat-first catcher Willson Contreras headlines the catching free agents, but Vazquez is arguably the second best option available. With Maldonado under contract in Houston for another year, it seems likely that Vazquez will look for a new team to give him the playing time he seeks. While almost any team could do with a well-rounded catcher like Vazquez, a return to the Red Sox would be something he’d welcome.

“I hope so. I’d love it. It was my [house] for a long time,” Vázquez said. “We’ll see how it goes.”

Reese McGuire impressed down the stretch for the Red Sox, but Kevin Plawecki is a free agent and Connor Wong struggled in his small sample of playing time so the Red Sox do figure to be active in the catching market this off-season. Ultimately though, with the Mets, Twins, Rays, Cardinals, Brewers, Guardians, and White Sox among the contending teams that could be seeking upgrades at the position Vazquez is likely to have plenty of interest.

Astros Acquire Christian Vazquez From Red Sox

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The Astros hunt for catching help is over, as they announced an agreement Monday night to bring in Christian Vazquez from the Red Sox. Prospects Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu are headed to Boston in return.

Vazquez, 31, will now join just the second organization of his career, as he’s been with the Red Sox since being drafted by them in 2008. Since that time, he’s reached the majors and established himself as a solid regular. Though he’s never been an All-Star, Vazquez has played in 407 games for the Red Sox from 2019 to the present, slashing .272/.321/.424 for a wRC+ of 97. If not for a dismal season last year, those numbers would look even better, as he’s posted a wRC+ of 102 or higher in 2019, 2020 and here in 2022. This year, he’s hitting .282/.327/.432, 111 wRC+. Combined with his defensive contributions, he’s produced 6.4 wins above replacement in that four-year stretch, according to FanGraphs.

He and the Red Sox agreed to a three-year extension in early 2018, which came with a club option for 2022. That option was eventually exercised by the club, with Vazquez now just a few months away from reaching free agency for the first time. Boston looked like contenders for much of the season but had a dismal showing in July, going 8-19, dropping to the basement of the AL East and 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Given all of those factors, the Sox began entertaining offers and evidently found one to their liking.

For the Astros, they’ve been an obvious fit for a catching addition for quite some time, with both Martin Maldonado and Jason Castro struggling at the plate this year. The Astros have shown themselves to be quite fond of Maldonado in terms of his game calling and clubhouse presence, but he’s hit just .173/.239/.342 on the year for a wRC+ of 66. Castro has been far worse, slashing .115/.205/.179 for a wRC+ of just 15. He also landed on the IL a month ago with a knee injury, only increasing the need for reinforcements behind the plate.

The Astros are clear buyers, sitting on a record of 67-36 that gives them a 12-game lead over the Marines in the AL West. Vazquez is the second pick-up of the day, as they also brought aboard Trey Mancini earlier today, bolstering their lineup for the final months of the season and the postseason.

As for the Red Sox, they are in a much more nebulous position, sitting outside the postseason picture but close enough that the season isn’t exactly pushing up the daisies just yet. With their recent slide, questions have been raised about how they will approach the deadline, with many impending free agents that could conceivably be moved if the Sox are willing. Vazquez was one such name, with J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi among the others. It seems there won’t be a tidy answer, with the club trying to walk a line between buying and selling. Shortly after the Vazquez deal was announced, the club also reportedly acquired impending free agent Tommy Pham from the Reds, but then also reportedly traded Jake Diekman to the White Sox. With less than 24 hours to go until the deadline, there are likely many more moves to come.

In the immediate term, they add a pair of interesting young players to the farm system. Valdez, 23, is an infielder who is having a breakout season in the minors. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, he’s hit .327/.410/.606 on the year. Based on that showing, he jumped into the Baseball America list of top Astros’ prospects at their midseason update, coming in at #12. Abreu, 23, is an outfielder with a similar helium-backed trajectory. He’s hit .249/.399/.359 for the year, jumping up to the #21 slot in the Astros system in the BA midseason update.

Mark Berman of Fox 26 was first to report the Astros were acquiring Vazquez in exchange for two prospects. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe was first to report the Red Sox were receiving Valdez and Abreu.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros Showing Interest In Christian Vazquez, Ji-Man Choi

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The Astros have reportedly been in the mix for upgrades at catcher and at first base, prominently connected to both Willson Contreras and Josh Bell. However, while those two represent the arguable top options at those respective positions, the asking price on both has been high, and Houston is exploring alternative options. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes this morning that the ’Stros “are focusing more on Vazquez” than Contreras at this point, adding that they’ve also expressed interest in Rays first baseman/designated hitter Ji-Man Choi.

Vazquez, 32 in three weeks, is a more straightforward trade candidate than Choi. The longtime Red Sox backstop is playing out the final season of a contract extension he inked several years ago and will be a free agent at season’s end. Boston is sitting in the AL East cellar at present. Although the Sox are still just 3.5 games back for the final American League Wild Card spot, they’d need to leapfrog four teams to get there. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom isn’t expected to be an all-out seller, but he’s likely to listen to offers on veteran rentals such as Vazquez and designated hitter J.D. Martinez.

The veteran Vazquez is enjoying a quality seasons on both sides of the ball. He’s hitting .282/.327/.432 (111 wRC+) with eight homers, 20 doubles and a 16% strikeout rate — the second-lowest rate of his career. He’s also notched a +5 Defensive Runs Saved mark and boasts a 30% caught-stealing rate. He’s been narrowly below average in terms of framing, according to both FanGraphs and Statcast, but it’s been a strong all-around year for Vazquez, whose $7MM salary is plenty affordable for most teams — particularly a deep-pocketed club like the Astros. The Sox are reportedly seeking MLB-ready help even in return for their rental pieces, however, which surely complicates matters for the Astros and other interested parties.

Choi, who just turned 31 a couple months ago, is a bit more of an outside-the-box trade candidate. The Rays are currently in possession of that final AL Wild Card spot which the Red Sox are chasing, and the left-handed-hitting Choi has been an important part of their lineup. In 296 plate appearances, Choi is hitting .255/.355/.415  with eight home runs, 16 doubles and a hefty 13.5% walk rate. He has a lengthy track record of thumping right-handed pitching, evidenced by a .252/.359/.464 batting line when holding the platoon advantage.

Lefties have given Choi a harder time. He’s hitting .325 against them this season, granted, but that’s come in a tiny sample of 43 plate appearances. His success against southpaws in this year’s tiny sample is plenty suspect; he’s punched out in 37.2% of his plate appearances against them and is sporting a wholly unsustainable .520 BABIP against same-handed opponents. In all likelihood, he’d fall into a platoon in Houston, yielding at-bats against lefties to Astros stalwart Yuli Gurriel.

Choi is an atypical trade candidate not only due to his status as a productive hitter on a current playoff team but also because he’s controlled beyond the current season. He’s earning an affordable $3.2MM salary this season and would earn one final raise in arbitration this winter before reaching free agency following the 2023 campaign. The Rays, however, have affordable options to step in for Choi at first base, including Yandy Diaz, Harold Ramirez and Isaac Paredes. Top prospect Curtis Mead looks Major League ready after ripping through Double-A and Triple-A this season, too. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has a knack for finding and maximizing the production of undervalued platoon bats of this nature. Choi himself was acquired from the Brewers in a low-profile trade for utilityman Brad Miller in 2018 and has been a fixture in the Rays’ lineup since.

If the Rays were to trade Choi or any other member of their current roster, it surely wouldn’t be a sign that they’re pivoting to a classic “seller” mindset. Tampa Bay walks this line every year, regularly trading quality big leaguers who are inching closer to free agency while simultaneously adding some help in other swaps. They flipped reliever Diego Castillo to the Mariners at last year’s deadline, for instance, and they’re less than 48 hours removed from acquiring veteran outfielder David Peralta from Arizona.

Latest On Red Sox’ Deadline Plans

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As the calendar flipped from June to July, the Red Sox were sitting on a record of 43-33 and holding onto an American League Wild Card spot. However, this has been a disastrous month for them, in which they went 8-19. Now their record is 51-52, placing them 3 1/2 games behind the Rays for the final playoff spot, with three teams in between.

Due to that slide, there’s been recent chatter about the club giving consideration to trading impending free agents such as J.D. Martinez, Christian Vazquez and Nathan Eovaldi. With less than 48 hours remaining until the trade deadline, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that financial considerations will be a factor in discussions between the Red Sox and other teams. According to Speier, the front office will think about ducking under the luxury tax but will not be required to do so. It’s even possible that they could take on additional salary commitments if it meant adding more prospect talent to the system.

The Red Sox have paid the luxury tax in the past but have been trying to run lower payrolls in recent years. Most famously, or infamously, Boston traded away Mookie Betts and David Price as a means of shedding salary. However, they did some aggressive spending this past winter, most notably the six-year, $140MM contract given to Trevor Story, putting them back over the CBT line for this year. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates their current CBT number is just over $238MM, placing them $8MM beyond the lowest $230MM threshold. (Speier says they are about $7MM over the line.) Since luxury tax status isn’t determined until the offseason, the Sox could still lower their CBT number and avoid all penalties.

Trading Martinez alone would go most of the way, or perhaps all of the way, to getting Boston back under the line. He’s making a salary of just over $19MM this year, but a player’s contribution to the luxury tax calculation is based on the average annual value of the player’s entire contract. Since his deal was for $110MM over five years, it comes with an AAV and CBT hit of $22MM this year. At the time of the trade deadline, there will be just over a third of the season remaining, meaning the Red Sox can chop about $7.5MM off of their luxury tax calculation if they find another team to take on the entirety of the remainder of the Martinez contract. Eovaldi and Vazquez have lower AAVs of $17MM and $7MM, respectively. That means an Eovaldi trade could subtract about $5.8MM from the ledger and about $2.4MM in the case of Vazquez. If the Boston brass decide they need to get under the line, it’s certainly something they can achieve by moving some combination of this trio.

This approach will appeal to certain teams but not others, of course. Teams with lower payrolls could potentially prefer to pay a higher prospect cost in order to take on less salary, but there are also teams in the opposite camp. For example, the Mets are reportedly looking to buy at the deadline but would rather take on money than give up prospects.

However, the Red Sox are also apparently willing to go in another direction, giving thought to using some financial heft to absorb some salary as a means of bolstering their system. The Red Sox have a large number of contracts coming off the books this year, in addition to those already mentioned. Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki are set to reach the open market as well. Furthermore, option decisions could subtract even more money from the 2023 payroll, most notably that owed to Xander Bogaerts, who is widely expected to opt out of his contract in a few months. That gives the Red Sox a CBT number of just under $108MM for next season, according to Jason Martinez. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration eligible players, including Rafael Devers, but it does include Bogaerts. If Bogaerts is indeed subtracted from the ledger, the arbitration players won’t raise that number by much. If Boston is willing to inflate their luxury tax payment this year, they could be in good position to “reset” their CBT status next year. (There are escalating penalties for paying the luxury tax in consecutive seasons, meaning that even the teams with the highest payrolls often find ways to periodically avoid the tax in order to avoid such a scenario.)

All in all, the Red Sox are shaping up to be one of the most interesting teams to watch as we approach the trade deadline, which is at 5pm on August 2. Since they are on a precipice between the contenders and the rebuilders, they might try to walk a line between the two customary “buying” and “selling” strategies. One thing that seems to be off the table, however, is a full-scale rebuild that sees the team strip things down in a serious way. Bogaerts recently said that he was told that he will not be traded, and now Devers has said the same, per Rob Bradford of WEEI. Bradford also relays, however, that there have been no recent contract talks with Bogaerts and the club, meaning it’s still quite possible he opts out at the end of the year, with the club sure to extend him a qualifying offer at that time. Speier also relays word from Vazquez, who also has not had any recent talks about a new contract. Though there are still many possible permutations, it seems that Boston’s roster is headed for a significant shakeup, either this week or in the offseason or both.

Red Sox Notes: Eovaldi, Vazquez, Martinez, Mets, Vientos

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As the Red Sox continue to struggle, it seems increasingly likely that the team will be selling in some capacity at the trade deadline, even if the likes of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers aren’t going anywhere.  Reports from earlier this week suggested that the Sox were already open to offers for J.D. Martinez, and The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter links) hears from a National League evaluator that catcher Christian Vazquez could also be available.  The Sox seem to be “listening on veterans” in general, The New York Post’s Jon Heyman tweets.

Both Martinez and Vazquez are free agents after the year, so it would seem natural that the Red Sox would first look to move these shorter-term players with the deadline looming.  Other pending free agents include Jackie Bradley Jr. (whose mutual option for 2023 is likely to be declined), several injured players like Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Enrique Hernandez, and Matt Strahm, plus the potential biggest trade chip of starter Nathan Eovaldi.

However, Speier writes that Boston “doesn’t seem motivated to deal Eovaldi, seeing him as part of any push to contend” into August, if the Red Sox can shake out of their slump.  That said, if the Luis Castillo trade now becomes “an accelerant to the rest of the pitching market,” it is worth wondering if the Sox might see an opportunity to move Eovaldi for a big return.

Of note, the Mets had a scout at last night’s Red Sox game, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  The Mets are known to be looking at catching and lineup upgrades, so Vazquez and Martinez would each make sense — Martinez in particular could help the Mets solve their season-long lack of production at the DH spot.  As to what New York could offer in return, Rosenthal notes that the Sox had a past interest in Dominic Smith, who would fit the team’s desire to land big leaguers back in trades (adding to the idea that Boston is still hoping to make a late playoff run).

A player on the cusp of the majors could also fit Boston’s model, with SNY’s Andy Martino suggesting that Mets infield prospect Mark Vientos could be of interest in trade talks.  In fact, Martino reports that the Mets and Red Sox once “seriously discussed” a deal that would’ve sent Vazquez to Queens in exchange for a prospect package that included Vientos.  The exact timing of these specific talks involving Vientos isn’t known, but the Mets reportedly looked into Vazquez prior to the 2020 trade deadline.

Vientos was a second-round pick for the Mets in the 2017 draft, and the 22-year-old has an impressive 21 home runs and a .263/.351/.516 slash line over 348 plate appearances at Triple-A Syracuse.  Baseball America ranks Vientos as the fourth-best prospect in New York’s farm system, praising his 60-grade power and throwing arm and noting that he has a chance to stick at third base, even if some evaluators think a move to first base will eventually be necessary.

For all of Vientos’ potential, he is generally seen as a step below the true upper tier of Mets prospects, so New York could perhaps be more apt to move him for immediate help (even for a rental like Martinez or Vazquez) given how aggressively the Mets are chasing a World Series title this year.  It can’t be ruled out that some kind of multi-player agreement could be struck, with both Martinez and Vazquez heading to Queens in exchange for a better prospect return.

Red Sox Reportedly Listening To Offers For J.D. Martinez

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As the Red Sox continue to flounder through the month of July, there are increasing levels of speculation that Boston could sell off some short-term veterans — even if they continue to opportunistically look to add longer-term pieces who’ll help in 2023 and beyond. To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney said on today’s Baseball Tonight podcast that designated hitter J.D. Martinez “is out in the trade market.” Boston was recently swept by the division-rival Blue Jays, dropping them to 17 games back in the AL East and three back in the Wild Card chase.

The 34-year-old Martinez (35 next month) would immediately become one of the best bets on the market if the Sox indeed do intend to trade him within the next week. Fresh off his fifth career All-Star appearance, Martinez remains a standout bat, hitting .302/.368/.481 with nine homers on the season. He may not be the 45-homer threat he was at his 2017-18 peak, but Martinez’s 8.7% walk rate and 23.6% strikeout rate are both right in line with his career levels, and he’s been 36% better than league-average at the plate by measure of wRC+.

Martinez is in the final season of a frontloaded five-year, $110MM contract that calls for a $19.375MM salary for the current season. He’s still owed about $7.55MM of that salary between now and season’s end, as of this writing, but for a hitter of his caliber it’s a generally reasonable rate of pay.

The extent to which the Red Sox are attempting to move Martinez isn’t yet known. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom typically takes an open-minded approach to the trade deadline and offseason alike, so it’s certainly feasible that he’s simply entertaining offers from other clubs. At the same time, if the Sox have determined that they don’t want to make a qualifying offer to Martinez at what will likely be a comparable rate to his current salary, they could more aggressively contact other clubs and try to initiate negotiations themselves.

Making Martinez available would obviously bring about further questions regarding the Sox’ roster. If they’re willing to move Martinez, it stands to reason that other clubs would inquire about the team’s other slate of pending free agents, at the very least. Nathan Eovaldi would quickly become the top name on the rental market for starting pitchers, and the Sox also have catcher Christian Vazquez, starters Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, utilityman Enrique Hernandez and reliever Matt Strahm set to reach free agency this winter.

Wacha, Hill, Strahm and Hernandez are all on the injured list at the moment, but all four are progressing toward returns (Twitter link via MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo). Hill is slated for a rehab assignment beginning tomorrow, while Wacha recently threw a simulated game. Strahm is only on the IL due to a wrist contusion (the All-Star break likely contributed to the factor to place him on the IL at all). Hernandez will be swinging a bat by the end of the week.

Of course, those players may not be considered quite as “easy” to replace as Martinez. While there’s no Martinez-level bat readily available to take his place, the Sox do have top prospect Triston Casas in Triple-A. Bobby Dalbec is playing third base right now with Rafael Devers on the injured list but could get a look at DH — or the Sox could simply use the designated hitter slot as a means of rotation their regulars and keeping them fresh down the stretch.

While a brief rental of a designated hitter might not generally be expected to produce a significant return, it at least bears mentioning that the Twins were able to pry minor league right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman from the Rays in last summer’s Nelson Cruz trade. Ryan, then an upper-level starter who’d recently pitched for Team USA in the Olympics, quickly found his way to the big leagues and has been Minnesota’s best starter since last September’s debut. That’ll likely be seen as the gold standard for rental trades of this nature for some time, however, and it’s not necessarily reasonable to expect the Red Sox — or any team — to pull off a return of that quality in exchange for a rental bat.

Obviously any talk of the Red Sox trading rental players will bring about speculation regarding shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who can and almost certainly will opt out of the final three years and $60MM remaining on his contract at season’s end. Bogaerts, however, has full no-trade protection under that contract. Paired with the opt-out provision on the deal, that makes a trade involving him a difficult (albeit not impossible) one to envision. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted this morning that other teams expect Bogaerts to remain put even if Boston sells off other short-term pieces.

Quick Hits: Stearns, Rosenthal, Mets, Vazquez, Cruz

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In his latest piece, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns is interested in filling a similar position for the Mets in the future. That Stearns might be interested in one day taking over the Mets front office isn’t new, but the timing of such a transition had long been obscured due to Stearns’ questionable contract status. Heyman now clarifies that it is “believed” the Brewers’ top executive can opt out of his contract if the Brewers reach the NLCS this season, after which the Mets would likely pursue him.

New York’s personnel decisions were a hot topic this past winter, as the team hired veteran manager Buck Showalter to lead a new on-field staff and were snubbed by a series of high-profile front office candidates. The Brewers were among the rejectors as well, with Brewers owner Mark Attanasio denying the Mets an opportunity to interview David Stearns on multiple occasions. Ultimately the Mets pivoted and signed Billy Eppler to a four-year contract to serve as their GM, with the industry expectation being that the Mets could install a president of baseball operations down the line. Both the Mets and Brewers are certainly pleased with their front office configurations at the moment, however, as the Eppler and Stearns-led clubs sport records of 19-9 and 18-8, respectively, atop their divisions.

Some other news of note on this Thursday evening…

  • Sticking with the Mets, Heyman suggests that the team is likely to seek relief help at the trade deadline. Right-handed reliever and free agent Trevor Rosenthal could be an early target according to Heyman, as the former closer is expected to hold a pitching showcase in the coming weeks. Reported interest in Rosenthal has been widespread since April, but has yet to manifest into a deal. The 31-year-old Rosenthal is coming off an ill-fated, one-year deal with the A’s in which he failed to throw a regular season pitch for the team due to injury. Before he underwent multiple season-ending surgeries in 2021, Rosenthal was fresh off a triumphant comeback season in which he posted a 1.90 ERA with a 41.8% strikeout percentage as the Royals’ and Padres’ closer.
  • Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez is keeping his options open as he nears free agency at the end of the season, per Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. The longtime Boston catcher figures to have his fair share of suitors should he reach free agency like expected, as he routinely draws plaudits for his defensive work and leadership even as his bat has waxed and waned throughout his career. To that end, the Red Sox picked up a $7MM club option on the veteran receiver this offseason even though his 2021 slash line of .258/.308/.352 paled in comparison to the stout .278/.327/.472 line he posted in the preceding two years. Vazquez is off to a tepid start this season with an OPS of just .524, though slow starts are nothing new for the catcher as he looks to lead his club up and away from a last-place tie with the Orioles.
  • Top Pirates prospect Oneil Cruz lit up the minor leagues last season and regularly draws comparisons to Aaron Judge, but Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette outlines a few reasons to temper expectations for the young slugger. The towering shortstop received a two-game game cameo in the majors last season but was ticketed for more work at Triple-A to begin the 2022 season. Thanks to a .159/.266/.256 start to the season and service time repercussions for Pittsburgh, Mackey figures a return to the big leagues is unlikely to happen in the near future. Another wrinkle to keep an eye out for is Cruz’s adoption of a new position this season: left field. Though the 6 foot 7 inch Cruz has primarily played shortstop since his pro debut, including this season, much has been made of his (in)ability to stick there long-term due to his size. The 23-year-old has plainly stated that he “[doesn’t] want to move to the outfield” however, which may complicate his permanent rise to the big league level. Incumbent Pirate shortstops Cole Tucker and Diego Castillo shouldn’t prove to be large roadblocks for the eventual promotion of a player the industry still holds in incredibly high regard. For now though, Pirates fans will have to wait a while longer for their best prospect to join Ke’Bryan Hayes in the lineup and, potentially, the left side of the infield for years to come.
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