Cubs Open To Further Bullpen Additions
The Cubs added a new closer when they formally acquired Ryan Pressly (and $5.5MM) from the Astros in exchange for pitching prospect Juan Bello earlier this morning. That adds a much-needed veteran arm to a group that generally lacked late-inning, high-leverage experience. However, the Cubs “aren’t done” with addressing their bullpen, Bruce Levine reported recently in an appearance on 670 The Score’s Mully & Haugh Show (audio link). Meaghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune and Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic both implied in writing about the Pressly swap that the Cubs would like to add another bullpen arm as well.
Among the pitchers with whom the Cubs have had some talks are Ryne Stanek and David Robertson, Levine noted. Both Stanek and Robertson had previously been reported to be among the Cubs’ targets. Either pitcher would make sense in the current context of the Chicago bullpen. Pressly seems all but certain to slot into the closer’s role after waiving his no-trade clause to approve a deal to a more favorable role with the Cubs. Any forthcoming addition to supplant Pressly would smack of last year’s Josh Hader signing in Houston — one that GM Dana Brown suggested earlier today “fractured” the relationship between him and Pressly to some extent (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).
“Anytime you take a major league player out of a role where they feel comfortable, I think it’s going to fracture your relationship some,” Brown said of signing Hader and pushing Pressly into a setup role. “I think we continued to communicate. He’s a true professional. And I kept it real as a true professional myself. I think there was some frustration, which I totally understand from a competitor. You’re moving a guy at a position who felt like he didn’t deserve to lose his job, because you acquired another elite closer like a Hader.”
With Pressly in line to handle ninth inning duties, barring any major downturn in his performance, a veteran who’s pitched extensively in a setup role would make sense. Robertson, already a former Cub, would be a logical fit. He’s excelled in both a setup and closing capacity in the past. The Cubs have more than $35MM worth of space between their current luxury tax projection (per RosterResource) and the $241MM threshold, so even the likely eight-figure salary Robertson will command should fit comfortably onto the books.
Other setup options of note on the market include Phil Maton, Tommy Kahnle and Andrew Chafin. If the Cubs want to roll the dice on an injury rebound candidate, any of Kendall Graveman, Daniel Bard, Lou Trivino, Keynan Middleton or Drew Smith could be had on affordable deals. Pressly, free agent signee Caleb Thielbar and trade pickup Eli Morgan are the three newcomers to manager Craig Counsell‘s bullpen thus far in the offseason. Righty Colin Rea has experience both as a starter and a long reliever and could conceivably fill either role, depending on how the rest of the starting staff holds up.
Tigers Pursuing Relievers With Closing Experience
The Tigers are interested in adding a late-inning reliever who has experience as a closer, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Petzold identifies top unsigned reliever Carlos Estévez as one of a number of bullpen targets in whom the Tigers have shown interest.
Spending on relief pitching has picked up this month. Estévez’s own market has accelerated. Petzold writes that the Tigers are among six teams still in the mix for the hard-throwing righty. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the Reds remain in contact with Estévez’s camp. He was also linked to the Cubs — who are themselves evaluating a number of late-game options — last week. The Diamondbacks and Braves are among other teams known to be seeking relief help, though neither has been linked to Estévez specifically.
The 32-year-old has been a reliable back-end option for the Angels and Phillies over the last two years. He turned in a 3.90 ERA with 31 saves and a plus 27.8% strikeout rate for the Halos in 2023. He was off to an even stronger start last year, working to a 2.38 ERA while fanning 25.8% of batters faced through the trade deadline.
Los Angeles dealt Estévez to the Phillies for a pair of well-regarded pitching prospects. His finish in Philadelphia was more solid than great. While he turned in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames for the Phils, Estévez’s strikeout percentage dropped to a mediocre 20.5% clip. Despite the middling finish, Estévez still has a solid case for a three-year deal in the $30MM range.
Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel and Kyle Finnegan are other free agent relievers with varying degrees of closing experience. (Kirby Yates is also technically unsigned but seems to be headed to the Dodgers.) Jansen and Robertson could command eight-figure guarantees. Finnegan is likely to sign for somewhere below the $8.6MM which he was projected to make in arbitration before he was non-tendered by the Nationals. He should command more than $5MM, though. Kimbrel would be a rebound flier after posting a 5.33 ERA for the Orioles last year.
Petzold writes that the Tigers’ action in the relief market has been held up by Alex Bregman’s extended free agency. Detroit has been one of the top four suitors for the star third baseman. Petzold reported earlier this week that talks were at a “standstill,” though, and the Astros have seemingly made a renewed push to bring him back. That doesn’t mean a move to Detroit is off the table, but it leaves the Tigers in something of a holding pattern.
According to Petzold, the Tigers are unlikely to land Bregman and a top reliever. He suggests they’d be more motivated to spend on a closer if Bregman signs elsewhere, which would lead them to look at a much lower tier of free agent hitter. A few teams have moved to prioritizing the bullpen with the hitting market have slowed down. The Tigers may eventually need to do the same or risk their top relief targets signing while they await Bregman’s decision.
Pressly, Jansen, Robertson Among Cubs’ Bullpen Targets
As the Cubs look to strengthen the back end of their bullpen, they’ve considered a lengthy list of names via both the trade market and free agency. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that Chicago has some interest in Astros righty Ryan Pressly and that they’ve looked into a long list of free agents — Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Brooks Raley among them.
The Cubs recently finished runner-up to the Dodgers in their quest to sign Tanner Scott, putting forth a reported four-year, $66MM offer that broke all recent precedent for Chicago’s approach to bullpen acquisitions. The Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year guarantee or even an eight-figure salary to any individual reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Signing Scott would’ve marked a major paradigm shift for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. That’s also true of free agent Carlos Estevez, to whom the Cubs have also been linked. Conversely, the list of considerations highlighted by Mooney and Sharma are more in line with the team’s prior approach to bullpen building.
Pressly stands as the most interesting name in many regards. A trade involving the longtime Houston stopper would have major ramifications for two clubs and ripple effects throughout the rest of the free-agent market. He’s owed $14MM this season in the final year of his contract but also wields a no-trade clause, allowing him to control his own fate.
If Pressly were amenable to a trade that’d send him to Wrigley Field, the Cubs would immediately have a new closer, while the Astros would dip back under the luxury tax threshold. Houston currently sits just $3MM over the line, per RosterResource’s estimate. Trading Pressly would put them $11MM under the threshold, perhaps giving the ‘Stros the financial leeway to pursue an outfielder. They’re reportedly interested in Jurickson Profar, for instance.
The 36-year-old Pressly was the primary closer in Houston for four seasons, from 2020-23, before giving way to free-agent signee Josh Hader in 2024. Pressly moved into a setup role this past season and tallied 25 holds in addition to four saves. He pitched 56 2/3 innings with a solid 3.49 ERA, a 23.8% strikeout rate, a 7.4% walk rate, a 48.8% ground-ball rate and just 0.64 homers per nine innings.
All of those rate stats were better than league-average, but many still represent a step in the wrong direction for Pressly. Beginning with his 2018 breakout in Minnesota and stretching through the 2023 season, for instance, Pressly punched out a whopping 32.6% of his opponents with just a 6.4% walk rate. The uptick in walks this past season wasn’t necessarily glaring, but it’s fair to say Pressly isn’t missing bats anywhere close to where he did at his peak. A four-seamer that average 95.3 mph from ’18-’23 checked in at a 93.8 mph average in ’24, and his swinging-strike rate dipped from 16.6% (again, ’18-’23) to a strong but far less remarkable 12.6%. League-average this past season was 11.1%.
Payroll-wise, adding Pressly would bump the Cubs to around $194MM in 2025 payroll with about $212MM worth of luxury considerations. That’d leave them $29MM shy of this year’s $241MM tax threshold. The Cubs and Astros already got together on one blockbuster, sending Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cam Smith. One would presume that Pressly’s name at least came up in those talks, but a larger and more complex package shipping both Tucker and Pressly to Wrigley Field was obviously never reached.
The free agent candidates laid out by The Athletic all fit the Cubs’ typical preference for short-term acquisitions in the bullpen, but genuine pursuits of Jansen and/or Robertson would still mark a change of note. From 2020-24, the largest guarantee the Cubs gave to a reliever was Hector Neris‘ $9MM deal last offseason. Either Jansen or Robertson would likely command an eight-figure guarantee. Jansen saved 27 games and posted a 3.29 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox this past season. Robertson notched a 3.00 earned run average in 72 innings with Texas, punching out one-third of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate.
The Cubs are plenty familiar with Robertson, of course. He signed a small one-year deal there prior to the 2022 season and largely revived his career at Wrigley Field. This time around, however, the circumstances would be different. Robertson inked an incentive-laden $3.5MM deal for one year in the 2021-22 offseason, as he’d yet to fully reestablish himself following Tommy John surgery while playing for the Phillies. He’s now coming off a trio of dominant seasons. With recent $10MM guarantees for both Jose Leclerc (A’s) and Andrew Kittredge (O’s), Robertson could well command a salary north of that sum. The Cubs’ offer to Scott and reported interest in Estevez show a willingness to spend that type of money on a reliever, though.
As for the others, they’re likely to come at a lesser rate. The Mets declined a net $7.5MM decision on Maton, opting for a $250K buyout over a $7.75MM option. He’s still coming off a nice year, however, having posted a 3.66 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 46.8% grounder rate in 64 frames. He finished particularly well after being traded from the Rays to the Mets in July. Stanek was another summer trade acquisition for the Mets; he posted a combined 4.88 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between Seattle and Queens. He whiffed 27.8% of opponents but issued walks at a 10.4% clip and was tagged for an average of 1.30 homers per nine innings.
Raley is on the mend from Tommy John surgery that was performed on May 29 of this past season. As such, the 36-year-old southpaw (37 in June) will be a midseason reinforcement wherever he signs — be it in Chicago or elsewhere. Raley was excellent from 2022-24 when healthy, tallying 115 1/3 frames of 2.58 ERA ball with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.
Free Agent Faceoff: Kenley Jansen vs. David Robertson
The free agent market for relief pitching has begun to heat up in recent days, with right-handers Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, and Jeff Hoffman all coming off the board. While top free agent relievers like Tanner Scott, Carlos Estévez, and Kirby Yates have gotten the majority of attention in the rumor mill of late, there’s a pair of veteran relief options available who between the two of them have more than 30 years of late inning experience on their resumes: right-handers Kenley Jansen and David Robertson. Both have plenty of closing experience and are on the wrong side of 35 but have remained effective even as they’ve aged into the latter stages of their careers, making them particular interesting options for clubs in need of bullpen help but with a preference for short-term deals.
Of the two, Jansen has the more storied career as a potential future Hall of Famer. The four-time All-Star and longtime Dodgers closer has taken a step back from his peak years in L.A., but his 447 career saves rank fourth all-time and he remains among the league’s better relief options. He departed the Dodgers following the 2021 season and has pitched for the Braves and Red Sox in the three years since then, posting a solid 3.42 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.26 FIP, a 29.9% strikeout rate, and an 8.9% walk rate while converting 97 of his 112 and save opportunities. He also boasts a dominant postseason resume, with a career 2.20 ERA, a 37.6% strikeout rate, and 20 saves across ten playoff runs.
The 37-year-old Jansen’s 3.44 ERA and 3.30 FIP during his two years in Boston were both solid, but his strikeout rate (28.1%) trended downward while his walk rate (9.2%) has begun to tick up. Most concerning, Jansen has begun allowing far more damaging contact. After posting a barrel rate of just 5.8% and a 25.7% hard-hit rate from the beginning of Statcast data in 2015 to the end of the 2022 season, those same figures have ballooned to 9.1% and 36.5% since he arrived in Boston. That’s left him with a 4.30 xFIP that’s more in line with middle relief options like Phil Maton and Héctor Neris than what’s expected of an elite closer, though other metrics like SIERA (3.62) are more favorable.
Robertson, meanwhile, has split his time between setup work (196 career holds) and closing (177 saves) over his 16-year career. He saved just two games for the Rangers last year and last saved more than 20 games in a season back in 2016. He’s the older of the pair and will turn 40 in April. That’s not to say Robertson is without his advantages, however. After a trio of lost seasons due to injury from 2019 to 2021, Robertson has reclaimed his place among the game’s top relievers with numbers that largely outshine Jansen over the past three years.
While bouncing between the Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, and Rangers over the past three years, Robertson has posted a 2.82 ERA and 3.24 FIP while striking out 31.1% of opponents in 201 innings of work. His 10.5% walk rate during that time leaves something to be desired and is more than a full percentage point higher than Jansen’s, but Robertson delivered a much more robust platform season with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.65 FIP in 72 innings for the Rangers as compared to Jansen’s 3.29 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 54 2/3 innings for Boston. Robertson’s also been more flexible in terms of his role over the years; he’s shown comfort both closing and acting as a setup man, while more than 80% of Jansen’s career innings have come in the ninth inning or later.
If you were running a team in need of late-inning relief help this winter, which veteran righty would you rather have for 2025? Would you prefer the younger Jansen with his elite postseason performance and lengthy track record of success in the ninth inning? Or would you opt for Robertson’s stronger peripheral numbers, flexibility to work outside of the ninth inning, and excellent platform season? Have your say in the poll below:
Which Would You Rather Have For 2025?
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David Robertson 65% (2,137)
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Kenley Jansen 35% (1,163)
Total votes: 3,300
David Robertson Declines Mutual Option With Rangers
Veteran right-hander David Robertson is declining his side of the mutual option he holds with the Rangers, as noted by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Robertson forgoes a $7MM salary in 2025 in favor of a $1.5MM buyout and the ability to test free agency.
Robertson, 39, returns to the open market on the heels of another solid season. He served as the top set-up man for closer Kirby Yates in Texas this season, pitching to a strong 3.00 ERA with 2.65 FIP in 72 innings of work. While the veteran will pitch next year at age 40, he’s shown no signs of slowing down with a 33.4% strikeout rate this year that was his best since 2017. While his 9.1% walk rate was somewhat elevated, it’s a couple of ticks below his 2023 mark and well below the mark he posted in 2022, the campaign that helped to revive his career after three mostly lost seasons due to injuries.
That dominance likely made the decision to head to the open market a fairly easy decision for the veteran as it’s hard to imagine him not beating the $5.5MM he left on the table this winter. While he’s likely to be limited to one-year guarantees due to his age, Robertson’s long track record of success in his nearly two decades as a big leaguer, his ample closing experience, and his ability to strike batters out at elite levels should all earn him a lucrative one-year deal in free agency this winter with a club in need of bullpen help. Virtually every team in the league tends to look for bullpen upgrades over the winter, and the short-term guarantee Robertson figures to command should make him of interest to contenders and rebuilding clubs alike, as even a deadline seller could shop Robertson next summer. That’s a situation Robertson is quite familiar with, as he found himself dealt at the trade deadline in both 2022 and ’23 when the Cubs and Mets shipped him off to the Phillies and Marlins, respectively.
For the Rangers, the departure of Robertson highlights the club’s own needs in the bullpen this winter as he joined Yates and Leclerc in heading to free agency. It’s not hard to imagine the club reuniting with one or more of those players at some point this winter, but with the club expected to try and duck under the luxury tax this winter it’s also possible Chris Young‘s front office will instead look for cheaper ways to augment their relief mix such as their recent move to claim Roansy Contreras off waivers from the Angels. Robertson, Leclerc, and Yates combined to make more than $20MM in 2024, after all, and clearing that money off the books while adding relievers on lower-cost deals could go a long way towards helping the Rangers avoid the rising penalties associated with spending into tax territory multiple times in a row. They’ll sure need some established help in the bullpen, however, as the club’s bullpen finished bottom-five in the majors overall this year even in spite of standout performances from Robertson and Yates.
What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?
The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.
By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.
Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.
As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."
Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.
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Rangers Sign David Robertson
The Rangers announced the signing of reliever David Robertson to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2025. The right-hander, who is self-represented, is reportedly guaranteed $11.5MM. He’ll make just $5MM in 2024 and is guaranteed the $1.5MM buyout on the option, which is valued at $7MM. The final $5MM is deferred, with $1MM paid annually between 2027-31.
Robertson split the 2023 campaign between a pair of NL East clubs. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact with the Mets. Initially tabbed as a setup man, he was pushed into the ninth inning by the Edwin Díaz injury. Robertson’s time in Queens ended up briefer than he or the team envisioned because the club quickly fell out of contention. That wasn’t any fault of his, as Robertson had an excellent 40-game run as a Met.
He tossed 44 innings with a 2.05 ERA, striking out nearly 28% of opposing hitters. For a second straight summer, Robertson was one of the better rental relievers at the deadline. New York flipped him to the Marlins for a pair of low minors prospects (Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez).
While Miami surprisingly stayed in contention and secured a Wild Card berth, Robertson wasn’t immediately effective. He had a tough first month in South Florida, allowing 13 runs (10 earned) with six walks and 10 strikeouts over 10 innings in August. Miami took him out of the closer’s role towards the end of that month. Robertson responded with a much better September, striking out 19 while allowing only two runs over his final 10 1/3 frames.
Despite the blip early in the second half, the former All-Star had another productive year. He finished the season with a 3.03 earned run average through 65 1/3 innings. Robertson fanned an above-average 29% of batters faced against a manageable 9.3% walk rate. He missed bats on a solid 12.6% of his overall offerings.
The Rangers have made no secret of their desire to add to the bullpen. Texas had been among the perceived frontrunners for Héctor Neris, arguably the top unsigned relief pitcher. They were also linked to Ryan Brasier a couple weeks ago. Robertson, who turns 39 in April, is available on a one-year pact. Neris and Brasier each have a shot at two years, with Neris likely to top the overall guarantee that Robertson secured.
Robertson is the second free agent bullpen acquisition of the offseason for GM Chris Young and his front office. The Rangers inked Kirby Yates to a $4.5MM deal during the Winter Meetings. Texas lost a trio of bullpen arms to free agency. Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith and Chris Stratton have all landed elsewhere. That left the relief group as the shakiest part of the defending champions’ roster. Robertson and Yates join Josh Sborz as bridge options to closer José Leclerc. Texas could still stand to add a left-hander after Brock Burke turned in a middling 2023 season.
Roster Resource projected their 2024 payroll around $210MM before the Robertson signing. He’ll push that to roughly $215MM. More importantly, the deal moves them into luxury tax territory. Texas was at roughly $231MM in CBT obligations before this signing. While the deferrals marginally reduce the contract’s net present value, the contract’s tax hit for next season is much closer to the $11.5MM overall guarantee than it is to next year’s $5MM salary.
Their CBT number jumps past the $240MM mark, pushing above the $237MM base threshold. Texas surpassed the CBT threshold last season, so they’ll pay escalating penalties for a second consecutive year of payments. The Rangers are taxed at a 32% rate on spending between $237MM and $257MM.
The tax for the Robertson signing is fairly modest. It’ll land in the $2MM range. The more significant impact could be on future tax obligations incurred on any further acquisitions. They’ve had a fairly quiet offseason amidst uncertainty about their broadcasting deal with Diamond Sports Group, but they’re bracing for another showdown with the Astros at the top of the AL West.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the Rangers had interest in Robertson. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Rangers and Robertson had agreed to a one-year deal in the $11-12MM range. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was first to report the $11.5MM guarantee, the mutual option, and the salary breakdown.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
NL East Notes: Robertson, Albies, Nationals
When the Marlins shipped a pair of intriguing young prospects to New York in order to acquire veteran right-hander David Robertson from the Mets, it was a statement of intent to contend by Miami, as they acquired perhaps the top rental reliever available at this year’s trade deadline. It was Robertson’s second time being dealt at the deadline in as many years, as the 38-year-old veteran was swapped from the Cubs to the Phillies in exchange for pitching prospect Ben Brown 13 months ago. Sporting a 2.23 ERA in 40 1/3 innings of work at the time of that deal, Robertson went on to post similarly excellent numbers in Philadelphia with a 2.70 ERA in 22 regular season appearances down the stretch and just one run allowed in his eight postseason appearances as the Phillies headed to the World Series for the first time since 2009.
At the time of this year’s deal, Robertson was having an even better season, with a 2.05 ERA in 44 innings of work with a 27.9% strikeout rate. Unfortunately for the Marlins, he hasn’t been the shutdown closer they were expecting in ten appearances with the club. He’s posted a brutal 7.20 ERA and 6.17 FIP in ten innings since joining Miami, with just four saves in seven chances. Those brutal results have led the Marlins to remove their veteran deadline addition from the closer role entirely, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Mish suggests Tanner Scott, who sports a 2.59 ERA and 2.12 FIP in 59 innings of work this season, could replace Robertson as the club’s closer moving forward.
The move reflects the dire situation Miami finds itself in after a difficult August; at the time of the Robertson deal, the club was 54-49 and firmly in the mix for one of the NL Wild Card spots. Since then, the Marlins have gone just 12-16, falling to 65-64 and three games back of the third Wild Card spot. While that’s hardly an insurmountable deficit with more than a month to go in the season, the club is facing playoff odds of just 19.4% at this point per Fangraphs, far worse than their 49.3% odds on the day of the Robertson deal.
More from the NL East…
- Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies has been on the 10-day injured list since earlier this month with a hamstring strain, but could already be nearing a return. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution relayed an update regarding Albies this evening, indicating that Atlanta will “see just how well he feels” tomorrow after a successful workout this afternoon. When Albies is ready to go, it seems he’ll be activated from the injured list directly, as Toscano notes that manager Brian Snitker has previously indicated the infielder won’t require a rehab assignment before returning to action. Albies, who sports a 121 wRC+ in 510 trips to the plate this season, has been covered for by Nicky Lopez and Vaughn Grissom at the keystone while he’s been on the shelf.
- The Nationals announced this afternoon that the club had optioned outfielder Blake Rutherford to Triple-A. Rutherford, a 26-year-old journeyman and former first-round pick by the Yankees who made his MLB debut with Washington earlier this month, slashed just .182/.206/.182 in 34 trips to the plate with the Nationals prior to his demotion. Rutherford’s demotion sparked rumors regarding who would replace him on the active roster, with both Bobby Blanco and Mark Zuckerman of MASN indicating that the club could look to promote catching prospect Drew Millas. Millas, the club’s 23rd-best prospect per MLB Pipeline, is a defensive-first catcher who has impressed with the bat this season, batting .291/.390/.442 in 328 trips to the plate this season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.
Marlins Acquire David Robertson
The Mets and Marlins pulled off a late-night divisional swap on Thursday. Miami acquired veteran reliever David Robertson in exchange for low minors prospects Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez. The Fish transferred Matt Barnes to the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.
Robertson was one of the top rental relievers on the trade market for the second straight summer. The Cubs flipped the right-hander to the Phillies at last year’s deadline, bringing back pitching prospect Ben Brown. Robertson helped Philadelphia’s run to a pennant in 2022; he’ll hope for a similar late-season push in Miami.
Signed to a one-year, $10MM free agent deal over the offseason, the former All-Star was supposed to assume a key setup role in Queens. Edwin Díaz’s freak knee injury pushed Robertson into the ninth inning unexpectedly. While much of the New York roster has underperformed, the 15-year MLB veteran had a very strong few months in Flushing.
Robertson owns a 2.05 ERA across 44 innings. He’s well on his way to what’d be the sixth sub-3.00 showing of his career. He’s striking out just under 28% of opposing hitters while generating whiffs on a quality 13.1% of his offerings. Robertson’s command had been spotty in 2022 — perhaps a reflection of rust after injuries cost him the bulk of the 2019-21 seasons — but he’s dialed the strike-throwing back in this season. Robertson has walked only 7.6% of batters faced.
He’s 14-17 in save opportunities and has picked up an additional seven holds. Robertson has dominated right and left-handed hitters alike this season and brings a rare consistency for a single-inning reliever. He’ll take on a key high-leverage role for the Fish, likely taking over closing duties. Left-handers Tanner Scott and A.J. Puk are also in the late innings. Miami’s bullpen was a bit thinner on right-handed options, so they’ll bring in Robertson one day after a swap of change-of-scenery relievers sent Dylan Floro to Minnesota for Jorge López.
The intra-division swap serves as a reminder of how disappointing the Mets’ 2023 campaign has been. New York, coming off a 101-win season and running the highest payroll in MLB history, entered the year with championship aspirations. Miami was viewed more as an upstart, a team with plenty of young talent that faced an uphill battle to finish higher than fourth in their division.
Four months later, the Marlins are buying from the Mets. Miami held a Wild Card spot for the bulk of the season. They’ve hit a cold spell, dropping nine of their last 11. They now find themselves outside the playoff picture but only marginally, as they’re half a game behind Cincinnati for the National League’s last postseason spot.
With a real chance to make the playoffs in a 162-game schedule for the first time in two decades, the Fish will deal from the low minors to add immediate MLB help. Now that they’ve fortified the bullpen, general manager Kim Ng and her staff could try to bolster the position player group in the coming days. They’ve been tied to infielders like Tim Anderson and Jeimer Candelario in recent days.
Miami appears to have some financial breathing room. Marlins’ owner Bruce Sherman implied as much a few weeks ago, and they’ll put that into practice by taking on the roughly $3.55MM owed to Robertson through season’s end. The Mets haven’t been shy about potentially paying down contracts to facilitate a better prospect return. That apparently wasn’t necessary in Miami’s case. Roster Resource had calculated the Marlins’ payroll around $103.6MM before the deal; it’ll jump past $107MM at this point.
The cash savings for the Mets will go beyond what Miami assumes in salary. Any money which New York offloads would also come with a 90% savings in luxury taxes which the club had been set to pay. The Mets save around $3.2MM in taxes and approximately $6.7MM overall.
More meaningfully, the organization adds a pair of intriguing low level talents. Vargas, 18, is a left-handed hitting infielder out of Mexico. He’d ranked 20th among Miami prospects at Baseball America coming into the season, though BA’s Josh Norris tweets that he was rising up the ranks after impressing evaluators in the complex league this summer.
The outlet’s preseason report praised Vargas’ bat-t0-ball skills and suggested he’s likely to fit best defensively at second base. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked him ninth in the Marlins’ system at the end of May, similarly praising his hit tool. Vargas has a .283/.457/.442 line with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts in 33 games this year.
Hernandez, 19, is a switch-hitting backstop from Venezuela. He’s repeating the level at the complex league but raking at a .298/.464/.452 clip over 31 games. FanGraphs ranked him 24th in the Miami system, crediting his advanced hit tool and above-average arm strength. There’s ample variability in targeting players this young, but each of Vargas and Hernandez seems to have a shot at being an everyday player down the line if they develop as hoped.
That’ll be little consolation for the Mets in the short term. Moving Robertson confirms their increasingly obvious place as deadline sellers. Other potential free agents like Tommy Pham, Carlos Carrasco and Mark Canha (whose contract contains a ’24 club option) could follow Robertson out the door. The Mets may not have the appetite for a larger-scale rebuild, but their place in the standings this year has gotten too hard to ignore.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Marlins were acquiring Robertson. Rosenthal and Will Sammon first reported the Mets were receiving two minor league hitters in return. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first with the return of Vargas and Hernandez. The Post’s Joel Sherman confirmed the Marlins were taking on all of Robertson’s remaining money.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
NL East Notes: Candelario, Marlins, Pham, Phillies, Dominguez, Hoskins
The Marlins have interest in Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Miami views “Candelario as a perfect fit.” With a cumulative -0.9 bWAR posted by Marlins third basemen this season, no team has received less from the hot corner than the Fish, as Jean Segura‘s resurgence over the last few weeks haven’t been enough to erase his very rough performance over the first three months. Segura could move into a utility role in the event of a Candelario trade, as Luis Arraez is a lineup fixture at second base, Jorge Soler is primarily a DH, and the hot-hitting Garrett Cooper is the primary first baseman.
Candelario is one of the more obvious trade candidates available heading into the deadline, as the Nationals are out of the race and Candelario will be a free agent after the season. After a poor 2022 season with the Tigers, Candelario has bounced back nicely to hit .254/.333/.474 with 15 homers over 390 plate appearances with Washington. He is owed roughly $1.8MM in remaining salary this season, which is a modest sum anyway but shouldn’t be a problem for the Marlins — owner Bruce Sherman has promised financial “resources” for deadline additions. Of course, Sherman’s statement came before Miami suffered through an eight-game losing streak out of the All-Star break, but the Fish got back into the win column with today’s 3-2 win over the Rockies.
More from around the NL East…
- Speaking of possible inter-division trades, Bob Nightengale also writes that the Phillies “would love to land” Mets outfielder Tommy Pham. The Phillies are known to be looking for right-handed hitting, with an outfielder as an ideal fit if Bryce Harper is able to settle in as a first baseman. Pham has an excellent .272/.356/.475 slash line and nine home runs over 250 PA with New York this season, making him an interesting rental target for several teams. The 46-52 Mets appear to be poised to be deadline sellers in some fashion, and pending free agents like Pham are the likeliest players to be moved as the Amazins look to reload for 2024. However, Pham has missed New York’s last few games with a groin injury, though he is expected to be back in action Tuesday.
- Along these same lines, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times figures the Rays will check in on Mets reliever David Robertson. Around $3.6MM remains on the one-year, $10MM free agent deal Robertson signed with New York last winter, and the veteran righty is a known quantity in Tampa after pitching for the Rays in 2021.
- Seranthony Dominguez is set to throw a second rehab outing today, as the Phillies right-hander might be nearing a return from the 15-day injured list. According to Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Dominguez might be activated as early as Monday if he is feeling good after today’s Triple-A game. Dominguez has been sidelined since mid-June due to an oblique strain. Coffey also provided an update on Rhys Hoskins, who will be traveling with the Phils on road trips for the remainder of the season as something of a mental release from the grind of his rehab. Hoskins tore his left ACL during Spring Training and is expected to miss the entire season, but the first baseman is still hoping for a possible return if the Phillies make the playoffs.