Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Yankees, Isiah Kiner-Falefa Avoid Arbitration

By Darragh McDonald | November 18, 2022 at 2:37pm CDT

The Yankees and shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6MM deal, per Robert Murray of FanSided.

The Yankees were expected to be big players in last year’s free agent shortstop sweepstakes, for fairly logical reasons. First of all, they had given up on Gleyber Torres taking over the position, bumping him to second base. Secondly, there was a huge crop of exciting free agents, which included Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez and Marcus Semien. However, reports indicated that the Yanks liked their shortstop prospects and just wanted to find a placeholder for 2022.

To that end, they acquired Kiner-Falefa, a defensive specialist with a below-average bat and two years of arbitration control remaining. The idea went according to plan, to a degree. Kiner-Falefa posted 10 Defensive Runs Saved at short as the club vastly improved its overall defense, at least by that metric. Their 129 DRS was easily the best in baseball, as the Dodgers came second with 84. Outs Above Average and Ultimate Zone Rating were a bit less enthusiastic about the work of Kiner-Falefa and the team as a whole, but they still achieved their goal of being better at run prevention. Their 3.5 runs allowed per game was their lowest since 1981.

IKF’s bat was still below league average, as he hit .261/.314/.327 for a wRC+ of 85. That’s 15% below league average but roughly in line with his previous work. The Yanks surely would have loved for him to take a step forward but they probably didn’t expect him to suddenly become a middle-of-the-order slugger.

Nonetheless, there were some reasons to think that a non-tender or a trade would be possible. For one thing, those aforementioned prospects that IKF was a placeholder for, they got one year closer to taking over. Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe were considered the two prime candidates to be the shortstop of the future in the Bronx, but they still needed more time coming into 2022. Peraza had only played eight Triple-A games coming into the year, but he added another 99 this year and also got into 18 MLB games. Volpe finished 2021 at High-A but got into 110 Double-A games in 2022 and then was promoted to Triple-A for 22 more contests. Adding to the crowded dance floor, Oswaldo Cabrera cracked the majors and played well in 44 games. He bounced around and seems ticketed for a utility role, but that’s another shortstop option in the mix.

Kiner-Falefa also seemed to fall out of favor with the club in the postseason, as a few defensive miscues led to a decrease in playing time. He was also due for a raise on his $4.7MM salary, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a bump to $6.5MM. Given those factors, it seemed within the realm of possibility that IKF could have been non-tendered or traded but he’ll instead stick around.

Keeping IKF also has its merits, even with all the kids seeming ready to take over at shortstop. The Yankee infield is broadly uncertain, though at least Anthony Rizzo is now re-signed and locked in at first base. Torres is still lined up to play second base, but his $9.8MM projected salary makes him a trade candidate. Josh Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu are question marks after the former had a disappointing season and the latter finished the year on the IL. Kiner-Falefa is capable of playing multiple positions and could be bounced around based on how all the other situations play out. But agreeing to a salary also does nothing to prevent the Yanks from working out a trade in the months to come.

Yankees Notes: Judge Free Agency, LeMahieu, Kiner-Falefa

By Simon Hampton | November 4, 2022 at 9:58pm CDT

Brian Cashman addressed reporters, including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, for the first time following the Yankees’ ALCS defeat to the Houston Astros. Cashman’s future was among the topics discussed, but the GM also took time to provide some insight on various areas of the playing roster.

Aaron Judge’s future with the organization will be the biggest question heading into the off-season, and Cashman says the team would ideally get a deal done soon if they’re to re-sign him. Judge is a strong favorite for AL MVP after hitting 62 home runs and posting a .311/.425/.686 slash line. A worst case scenario for the Yankees would be for them to miss out on Judge after his free agency drags long into the off-season and likely replacements have since signed elsewhere, so it makes sense that Cashman would prefer business to be completed swiftly.

“He’s gonna dictate the dance steps to his free agency because he’s earned the right to get there,” Cashman said. “We’ll see how it plays out. He’s the most important. If he came in here today and said, ‘I’m signing up. Let’s go,’ there’s still work to be done.”

Cashman wouldn’t offer much insight into the process, offering a “no comment” when asked if the Yankees and Judge had engaged in discussion since the end of the season. He also noted it’s more of a decision for Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner as well. Cashman’s clearly stated he wants Judge back, but the ultimate decision will land at Steinbrenner’s feet as to how big of a contract he’s willing to hand out.

DJ LeMahieu struggled with a foot injury late in the regular season and wound up missing the entire post-season. The Yankees haven’t settled on a path forward for managing that injury in the off-season, but surgery remains on the table. LeMahieu posted a .261./.357/.377 line with 12 home runs this season, well short of the MVP-level offensive output he produced for the Yankees during 2019-20. The Yankees will hope a full recovery from the injury will allow LeMahieu to post better offensive numbers, but he’ll also turn 35 in 2023 and it’s perhaps unreasonable to expect much bounceback for the veteran. With four years and $60MM remaining on his contract, he’ll certainly be back in pinstripes though, but just where he fits in is up in the air and may depend on how the off-season plays out.

LeMahieu’s played plenty of first base with the Yankees, but that’s become less of a need since Anthony Rizzo joined the team last season. It’s already been reported that Rizzo is expected to decline his $16MM player option for 2023. It’s not much of a surprise given Rizzo had a strong season and is expected to benefit from shift restrictions next year. Cashman stated the Yankees will seek to re-sign Rizzo if he opts out. That could come in the form of a qualifying offer, but it seems likely Rizzo would decline that in favor of a multi-year deal.

The left side of the infield drew plenty of criticism throughout the season, and particularly during the playoffs, but Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are both controlled for 2023. Donaldson is owed $21.75MM while Kiner-Falefa is into his final year of arbitration and is predicted to make $6.5MM per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Donaldson ranked eighth among qualified third basemen in Outs Above Average, but scuffled with the bat, hitting just .222/.308/.374 with 15 home runs. Kiner-Falefa was never expected to be a major offensive contributor, but defensive metrics were mixed on his glove work at shortstop, ranging from 28th in Outs Above Average to seventh in Defensive Runs Saved. While a change at third might be tricky given Donaldson’s significant salary, Cashman’s left the door open for change at shortstop, particularly given the impressive showing rookies Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza made down the stretch. The Yankees also have top prospect Anthony Volpe getting close to the majors.

“I think Kiner was along the lines of what we expected,” Cashman said. “It gave us an opportunity to bridge the gap while the kids continued to develop because everybody in the industry, fans and teams alike, recognize that we have some pretty impactful prospects that we’re developing and needed some more time.”

In other bits of info from Cashman’s press conference, he said he wouldn’t discuss trading players but noted that outfielder Aaron Hicks would be back and that the team felt he still had something to offer. Hicks hit .216/.330/.313 in his age-32 campaign, and has $30.4MM and at least three years remaining on his contract. It’s worth adding here that manager Aaron Boone said today he wants to utilize Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield a couple of times a week next season. Stanton has largely played as a designated hitter of late, but factoring him into the outfield depth chart more regularly would affect Hicks’ playing time.

The Yankees are also hoping to bring back pitching coach Matt Blake. Hired out of Cleveland after the Yankees parted ways with Larry Rothschild in 2019, Blake is out of contract. The Yankees ranked third in the majors in team ERA with a 3.30 mark this year, behind only the Dodgers and Astros.

Yankees Promote Oswald Peraza

By Anthony Franco | September 1, 2022 at 6:22pm CDT

The Yankees have made one of the more notable September call-ups around the league, announcing the promotion of top shortstop prospect Oswald Peraza from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. With active rosters expanding and Peraza already on the 40-man roster, no corresponding move is necessary.

It’s the first big league call for the 22-year-old, who has spent a bit more than six years climbing the minor league ladder. Originally signed by New York out of Venezuela during the 2016-17 international signing period, the 6’0″ infielder spent his first couple seasons in rookie ball. He put himself firmly on the prospect radar by 2019, showing a high-contact approach in Low-A that year. The cancelation of the following minor league season cost Peraza a year of reps, but New York still felt there was a chance another team would take him in the Rule 5 draft and carry him on the MLB roster in 2021.

The Yankees therefore added Peraza to the 40-man roster, and he’s occupied a spot there for the past couple seasons as he’s continued to progress through the system. He mashed in a 28-game stint in High-A to start 2021, earning a quick promotion to Double-A Somerset. Peraza played most of the year there, hitting .294/.348/.466 with 12 home runs and 20 stolen bases through 79 games. That impressive age-21 season earned him a late-season cameo in Triple-A and plenty of public support on Top 100 prospect lists entering this year.

Peraza placed among the game’s top farmhands in preseason rankings at Baseball America, ESPN, The Athletic and FanGraphs. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel was the most bullish, slotting him 25th leaguewide, but evaluators broadly agreed he was a plus defensive shortstop with power potential and bat-to-ball skills. Reports raised questions about his tendency to chase pitches outside the strike zone, but consensus opinion is that he has the physical tools to be an above-average regular.

The right-handed hitter hasn’t done much to change those reviews in 2022. He got off to a slow start in Triple-A but has turned things on of late, and his season line now sits at a solid .258/.329/.440. He’s hit 18 homers and swiped 33 bases on 38 attempts. Peraza’s 8% walk rate and 23.2% strikeout percentage are each pedestrian, but it’s a generally productive showing for a player of his youth and defensive profile. BA slotted him second among Yankees prospects (behind only fellow shortstop Anthony Volpe) and #76 overall on its most recent Top 100 update. McDaniel now has him 36th leaguewide, agreeing that only Volpe is the more promising minor leaguer in the New York system.

Rival teams inquired about Peraza’s availability at the trade deadline, with the Reds and Marlins reportedly looking to include him in respective discussions about Luis Castillo and Pablo López. New York held onto him, though, and he’s now in position to potentially factor into their postseason run. The Yankees are coming off an awful month of August, but they’re still a lock to make the playoffs in some capacity. With a six-game lead over the Rays in the AL East, New York remains a strong favorite for a division title and a top two seed that’d earn them a first-round bye.

What role Peraza will play remains to be seen, but it stands to reason he’ll be in manager Aaron Boone’s starting lineup more often than not. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Josh Donaldson, acquired together in an offseason blockbuster with the Twins, have been the primary left side duo in the Bronx. Kiner-Falefa is hitting only .261/.310/.315 on the season, and he carries a .237/.290/.289 mark dating back to the All-Star Break. He’s gotten mixed reviews from public metrics for his glovework. Defensive Runs Saved has rated Kiner-Falefa 11 runs above average, the fifth-highest mark among shortstops. Statcast, on the other hand, has pegged him as a run below average.

Curtailing Kiner-Falefa’s playing time seems the easiest way to get Peraza into the lineup, but the Yankees could also work him in at the hot corner while giving Donaldson a few more days off. The former MVP has a roughly average .222/.308/.382 line across 441 plate appearances. He’s still drawing unanimous praise from public metrics for his glove, but the Yankees have also given the 36-year-old a fair number of quasi-rest days as a designated hitter.

However he’s deployed, Peraza will have a bit less than five weeks to make a case for a spot on the playoff roster. As a player who was on the 40-man by September 1, he’s automatically postseason-eligible (although even players in an organization but not on the 40-man are often easily added to playoff rosters via petition to the league office). Even if he doesn’t play a key role this postseason, Peraza will get his feet wet against big league arms as he looks to stake a claim to an Opening Day roster spot next year. He’ll have one minor league option year remaining after this season, so the Yankees can send Peraza back to Scranton next season if he doesn’t hit the ground running.

Peraza will be paid at the prorated $700K MLB minimum rate for any time he’s on the big league roster, and he’ll pick up a bit of major league service time. Far too much time has passed for him to accrue a full season of service or even threaten early arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player. He won’t be arb-eligible until after 2025 at the earliest, with his quickest path to free agency coming after 2028. If he’s optioned back to the minors next year, that could push his trajectory further into the future.

It’s also worth noting that Peraza will not reach 60 days of MLB service this season, nor is he likely to tally 130 at-bats and exhaust his rookie eligibility. He’ll technically remain a prospect headed into 2023, a potentially meaningful distinction under the new collective bargaining agreement. Players with less than 60 days of service who appear among two preseason Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN or MLB Pipeline (as Peraza seems likely to do next offseason) can net their team a bonus amateur draft choice based on their early-career finishes in awards voting, so long as their club carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year. If the Yankees break camp with Peraza and he wins a Rookie of the Year or places highly in MVP balloting during his first couple seasons, New York could pick up an extra draft choice down the line.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported Peraza’s promotion before the team announcement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Yankees Acquire Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ben Rortvedt From Twins For Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela

By Mark Polishuk | March 13, 2022 at 11:05pm CDT

The Bronx Bombers’ quiet offseason has come to an abrupt end, as the Yankees and Twins have combined on a blockbuster of a five-player deal. Third baseman Josh Donaldson, infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and catcher Ben Rortvedt are all heading to the Yankees, while the Twins will pick up catcher Gary Sanchez and infielder Gio Urshela. The $50MM still owed on Donaldson’s contract is being entirely absorbed by the Yankees, as per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. To create space on their 40-man roster, New York placed reliever Zack Britton on the 60-day injured list.

Donaldson has a five-team no-trade clause, though it isn’t known if the Yankees were one of the five clubs on his list, or if he waived his clause to head to New York. The Yankees will pay a $2MM assignment bonus due to the trade, and in being moved, the $16MM club option on Donaldson for 2024 now becomes a mutual option with a $6MM buyout, rather than an $8MM buyout.

This gigantic deal creates a shakeup on the rosters of both clubs, and ends Kiner-Falefa’s Minnesota tenure after just one day. The Twins only acquired Kiner-Falefa from the Rangers for Mitch Garver on Saturday, but now the former Gold Glover has been flipped as part of a much bigger deal that sees the Twins move a major salary off their books. Another flip doesn’t appear to be forthcoming, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal says the Twins plan to use Sanchez behind the plate.

After a winter of speculation about how the Yankees would address their infield, the Bronx Bombers have now installed Donaldson as their new everyday third baseman and Kiner-Falefa as their new shortstop. (New York was linked to IKF earlier this winter, so the team has finally landed him even after his brief stopover in Minnesota.) DJ LeMahieu may float between first and second base, sharing time with Gleyber Torres at the keystone and Luke Voit at first base. The DH spot is also a possibility to give at-bats to players, depending on how much outfield time Giancarlo Stanton can handle.

All this to be said, we certainly can’t rule out the Yankees making yet another big splash, since the team has been linked to both Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson to address first base. If either of those players are obtained, Voit would certainly look like an immediate trade candidate, and even dealing LeMahieu or Torres could be a possibility depending on what direction the Yankees wish to take.

Donaldson is no stranger to the AL East, having enjoyed some of his best years (including his 2015 MVP season) while playing with the Blue Jays from 2015-18. The 36-year-old’s production hasn’t declined much since those years in Toronto, as while injury concerns have cropped up as Donaldson has gotten deeper into his 30s, Donaldson is still a dangerous bat. The third baseman hit .247/.352/.475 with 26 homers over 543 PA with the Twins last season, and continued to post his usual elite-level hard-contact and walk rates.

Defensive metrics are mixed on Donaldson’s third base glovework, but New York is hoping that Kiner-Falefa can pick up any defensive slack on the left side of the infield. The winner of the AL Gold Glove Award as a third baseman with Texas in 2020, Kiner-Falefa has also been impressive over 1498 career innings shortstop in the view of the Defensive Runs Saved (+14) and UZR/150 (+1.7) metrics, though the Outs Above Average metric (-7) was very down on his shortstop glovework in 2021. The Fielding Bible ranked Kiner-Falefa third among all shortstops in their voting for the 2021 season.

Kiner-Falefa is controlled through two more arbitration seasons, thus essentially making him a bridge to what the Yankees hope will be their shortstop of the future. All winter long, New York has reportedly resisted getting into the hunt for the top tier of the free agent shortstop market due to the team’s belief in star prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza. With Peraza maybe approaching his MLB debut as early as this season and Volpe perhaps coming by 2023, the Yankees wanted to retain flexibility at shortstop rather than lock themselves into a ten-year commitment to a Carlos Correa or a Corey Seager.

Rortvedt is the least famous of the five names involved in the swap, and he hit only .169/.229/.281 over his first 98 PA in the majors, all with Minnesota last season. While Rortvedt has hit better in the minors, he isn’t expected to be another Sanchez at the plate, as the Yankees seem to intend Rortvedt to platoon with Kyle Higashioka in something of a defense-first tandem. Given all the other pop in New York’s lineup, focusing on glovework behind the plate seems like a fair tradeoff, particularly since Sanchez’s defense has been a topic of controversy for years amongst Yankees fans. Again, it isn’t out of the question that the aggressive Yankees could make another move to add a more proven veteran to the catching mix.

Payroll-wise, the Yankees take on Donaldson’s $50MM, the projected $4.9MM for Kiner-Falefa’s 2022 salary, and Rortvedt’s minimum salary. Urshela’s $6.55MM salary for 2022 and Sanchez’s projected $7.9MM salary come off the books, leaving the Bombers with a luxury tax number of roughly $242.7MM (according to Roster Resource). This is well over the new $230MM tax threshold but under the “second tier” of $250MM that would trigger a stiffer financial penalty for the Yankees. The club made a point of ducking under the luxury tax line in 2021 and thus resetting its clock, so the Yankees would only have to pay a first-timer penalty of 20 percent on the overage for every dollar spent between $230MM and $250MM.

The savings are much more profound for the Twins, who get Donaldson off their books and have now freed up some longer-term payroll space. According to SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link), the Twins didn’t pick up Kiner-Falefa with the intention of immediately moving him again, yet the club was ultimately swayed at the Yankees’ offer to take all of Donaldson’s contract.

This isn’t to say that Minnesota is necessarily looking to tear down the roster, as much of Donaldson’s 2022 salary space has now been filled by Sanchez, Urshela, and even Sonny Gray, acquired earlier today from the Reds. After spending just under $100MM on payroll in 2021, the Twins have around $94.2MM on the books for 2022 at the moment, giving them more space for other moves if they even approach their $125MM-$131MM full season payrolls from the 2018-19 seasons.

Owner Jim Pohlad said last summer that the Twins wouldn’t be rebuilding, and while it seems as though the Twins are still firmly planning to contend in 2022, they’ve created more maneuverability for themselves in landing Sanchez (one remaining year before free agency) and Urshela (two years of control). Should things go south for the Twins in 2022 as they did in 2021, therefore, the team may be able to more cleanly pivot towards moving players at the trade deadline, and perhaps at that point consider a larger-scale rebuild.

It wasn’t long ago that Sanchez was seen as a key to the Yankees’ future, breaking out with huge power numbers that seemed to put him next in the long line of big-hitting Bronx catchers. However, Sanchez has produced average-to-mediocre numbers in three of the last four years, leading to speculation this past fall that Sanchez could even be a non-tender candidate. Clearly, hanging onto the catcher proved worthwhile for the Yankees, as they were able to make him a big trade chip in this major swap.

Between his defensive issues and his evolution into a three-true-outcomes type of player, it remains to be seen if Sanchez can find a fresh start in Minneapolis. He wouldn’t be the first player to blossom outside of the New York pressure cooker (his new teammate Gray is a prime example), and Sanchez still provides strong power and on-base numbers. Sanchez still makes plenty of hard contact, but just making that contact has been a persistent issue, as Sanchez has been one of the game’s more strikeout-prone hitters for five seasons running.

Assuming the Twins do indeed plan to keep Sanchez, he’ll pair with Ryan Jeffers (a more defensive-minded catcher) as Garver’s replacement. Elsewhere in the infield, a situation that seemed settled with Kiner-Falefa’s addition is now once again thrown up in the air.

While Urshela has some experience as a shortstop, it seems much more likely that he’ll take Donaldson’s spot at third base, as the hot corner is Urshela’s usual position and he has shown himself to be a very solid defender. Urshela basically came out of nowhere to post huge numbers for the Yankees in 2019 and 2020, quickly making himself an infield regular amidst several injuries to New York’s roster during the 2019 campaign.

However, Urshela ran into some health issues himself this past season, missing time amidst a COVID-19 outbreak in the New York clubhouse and then a left hamstring strain. This could explain Urshela’s dropoff to a modest .267/.301/.419 slash line and 14 home runs over 442 PA, while his walk and strikeout rates plummeted from their 2020 levels.

The Twins are obviously counting on rebounds from both of their new players, and there is some obvious upside to the club’s plan. Should Sanchez and Urshela return to their 2019 form, that will be more than make up for the loss of Donaldson’s bat. The scope of this deal would seem to hint that at least one notable follow-up move will be coming, as the Twins now again need to address a shortstop void that Kiner-Falefa had seemingly filled. Jorge Polanco could move back to shortstop in a pinch but the Twins prefer him as a second baseman going forward.

Since Urshela can at least handle shortstop on a part-time basis, the Twins could also opt to land another third baseman, thus allowing for an Urshela/Polanco timeshare at shortstop and a Polanco/Luis Arraez split at second base. Daniel Robertson and Tim Beckham are also in camp on minor league deals for further infield options, and infield prospect Jose Miranda’s big 2021 season has put him on the verge of his MLB debut.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa were being dealt to the Yankees, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that Sanchez and Urshela were going to Minnesota. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reported Rortvedt’s inclusion in the trade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

AL Central Notes: Twins, IKF, Tigers, Anderson, Boyd, White Sox

By Mark Polishuk | March 12, 2022 at 5:44pm CDT

The Twins and Rangers combined on one of the most interesting early moves of the post-lockout period, agreeing to a trade earlier today that will see Isiah Kiner-Falefa and pitching prospect Ronny Henriquez head to Minnesota, while catcher Mitch Garver was dealt to Texas. Speaking with reporters (including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) about the deal, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said the Twins were first in touch about Kiner-Falefa before the lockout, and Garver wasn’t initially part of trade talks until it became that such a notable price was necessary to pry Kiner-Falefa away from the Rangers.

While the presence of Ryan Jeffers ultimately made Garver expendable, Minnesota now has a new everyday shortstop, and a player who has generally looked like one of the league’s better defensive players no matter where Texas lined him up on the diamond. Kiner-Falefa said he is happy to be getting an opportunity to start at what he considers his natural position of shortstop, and his addition means that the Twins can now keep Jorge Polanco at second base.

Twins Acquire Isiah Kiner-Falefa For Mitch Garver

By Darragh McDonald | March 12, 2022 at 11:35am CDT

The Twins and Rangers are in agreement on a deal that will send infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa to Minnesota, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Kiner-Falefa and a prospect will head to Minnesota in exchange for catcher Mitch Garver, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Pitcher Ronny Henriquez is the prospect heading to Minnesota in the deal, per Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press.

For the Rangers, this is yet another headline-grabbing move in what has been a very busy offseason for the club. Prior to the lockout, they threw around big money to add various players, with the two biggest names being shortstop Corey Seager and second baseman Marcus Semien. The addition of those two infielders, along with the impending arrival of prospect Josh Jung, led to immediate speculation that Kiner-Falefa could be a trade candidate. But when Jung underwent shoulder surgery last month, that seemed to swing the pendulum towards Texas keeping Kiner-Falefa as their everyday third baseman. However, that has now proven not to be the case, as he is headed for Minnesota.

The Twins had Andrelton Simmons as their primary shortstop last year. Despite showing the defensive skills he has long been known for, Simmons had a dismal year at the plate, hitting .223/.283/.274, wRC+ of 56. Yesterday, he signed with the Cubs for a modest $4MM salary, showing that the Twins weren’t terribly motivated to bring him back into the fold. With Kiner-Falefa, they’ve brought in a player with a similar profile to Simmons, but more reasons to be optimistic about his future performance. Like Simmons, Kiner-Falefa is a glove-first player, winning a Gold Glove in 2020 and finishing third among MLB shortstops in the Fielding Bible’s voting this past season. His bat has been below average thus far in his career, having never put up a wRC+ higher than 94. However, he’s still relatively young, turning 27 later this month, compared to the 32-year-old Simmons. He also hit .271/.312/.357 last year for a wRC+ of 85, not great numbers but certainly better than what Simmons provided. He’s also projected for an arbitration salary of $4.9MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and comes with an extra year of control beyond that.

But in order to make that solid addition to their infield, the Twins have had to send a valuable player the other way. Garver had a tremendous breakout season in 2019, hitting .273/.365/.630, wRC+ of 155. That would be exceptional production for any player but was especially impressive for a catcher. Injuries limited him to just 23 games of anemic production in the shortened 2020 season, but he bounced back well last year. Despite still dealing with injuries and only playing 68 games, his 2021 line was .256/.358/.517, wRC+ of 137. Last year, the Rangers split the catching duties almost evenly between Jose Trevino and Jonah Heim, who put up wRC+ tallies of 60 and 64, respectively. Garver is capable of producing at a much higher rate, but comes with concerns given the injuries of the past few years, making him a high-risk, high-reward option for Texas. He won’t be a huge risk from a financial standpoint, however, as he’s projected for an arbitration salary of $3.1MM this year, with another year of control remaining after that.

The reason the Twins could afford to part with such a talented catcher as Garver was the emergence of Ryan Jeffers. Making his MLB debut in 2020, he played 26 games and hit .273/.355/.436, wRC+ of 120. In 2021, he got off to a rough start, hitting .147/.216/.176 before getting demoted at the end of April. After showing signs of improvement in Triple-A, he was recalled in June and hit .206/.277/.433 the rest of the way, good enough for a wRC+ of 92. Although that’s clearly a drop-off from Garver’s numbers, Jeffers is turning 25 years old in June and comes with five remaining years of control. The Twins clearly felt that it was worth taking the chance on the younger player as their regular catcher in order to upgrade their infield.

Of course, that’s not all the Twins added, as they also brought Ronny Henriquez over in the deal. The 21-year-old right-hander split last season between High-A and Double-A, making 16 starts in 21 total games. In 93 2/3 innings, his 4.71 ERA wasn’t especially impressive, but the Twins were surely intrigued by his 27.1% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate, both of those being better than average. The club certainly needs arms after losing Jose Berrios to trade, Kenta Maeda to injury and Michael Pineda to free agency. Henriquez likely won’t provide immediate help in that regard, given that he’s never pitched above Double-A, but he could potentially be a factor later in the season.

Circling back to the Rangers, with Kiner-Falefa out of the picture and Jung on the shelf for around six months, they will have to decide what do about third base for this season. In-house options include Andy Ibanez, Nick Solak, Yonny Hernandez and Sherten Apostel. They could also turn their attention towards outside addition, although a tweet from Jeff Wilson casts doubt about a pursuit of Kris Bryant.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rangers Top Prospect Josh Jung Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

By Steve Adams | February 23, 2022 at 2:09pm CDT

Rangers top prospect Josh Jung underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder this morning, the team told reporters (Twitter link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). It’s expected to be about six months before he’s cleared to even begin serving as a designated hitter in games. Jung sustained the injury recently while lifting weights as part of his offseason training regimen. Texas had already shut him down, but the hope was that he could avoid surgery. After receiving additional medical opinions this week, however, surgery was deemed the necessary course of treatment.

It’s a brutal blow for the Rangers, who hoped last year could serve as the final full year of development for Jung. A big league debut at some point in 2022 was widely expected after the 2019 No. 8 overall pick laid waste to Double-A and Triple-A pitching in 2021. In 342 plate appearances between those two levels, Jung slashed a combined .326/.398/.592 with 19 home runs, 22 doubles, a triple, a 22.2% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate.

There was some thought that with a big enough spring showing, Jung could even position himself as a candidate to break camp with the Rangers. Texas is clearly shifting from its prior rebuilding mode into a win-now mindset, as evidenced by their offseason signings of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. Jung is the overwhelming favorite to eventually slot in as the team’s everyday third baseman, and most scouting reports on the promising former Texas Tech star expect him to do just that. He ranked as the No. 26 prospect in MLB at Baseball America this winter, No. 31 at Baseball Prospectus and No. 19 at ESPN. The team at FanGraphs was most bullish on Jung, placing a 60 grade on him overall (on the 20-80 scale) and ranking him inside the sport’s 15 best farmhands.

Any coronation of Jung as the team’s everyday third baseman is now on hold for the majority of the 2022 season — if not until the 2023 campaign. With Jung now out of the picture for the foreseeable future, versatile defensive star Isiah Kiner-Falefa finds himself shifting from a super-utility role (and interesting trade candidate) to the team’s primary option at the hot corner.

The 26-year-old Kiner-Falefa is well equipped to handle such a role, as he proved in 2020 when he won a Gold Glove Award at third base. He moved to shortstop for the 2021 campaign and turned in another strong defensive showing, although the potential drop-off from Jung to Kiner-Falefa from an offensive standpoint is likely to be steep. Talented as he is with the glove, Kiner-Falefa is primarily a singles hitter who rarely walks. He’s posted a .273/.316/.361 batting line over the past two seasons, which is productive enough to provide value when combined with his defensive prowess, but Jung has quite a bit more power and is widely expected to be an impact performer on offense.

Offensive gap between the two notwithstanding, Kiner-Falefa is a solid option to have on hand. He had reportedly been of interest to the Yankees as a possible trade candidate prior to the lockout, but Jung’s injury surely dampens the possibility that the Rangers would consider parting with Kiner-Falefa. While they could, speculatively speaking, still move Kiner-Falefa if a compelling enough offer presents itself and follow that trade with a short-term free agent signing, the likelier scenario is that Kiner-Falefa will be manning the hot corner at Globe Life Field for the vast majority of the 2022 season. Should Seager or Semien find themselves out of the lineup, Kiner-Falefa could step in for either player, with 28-year-old Andy Ibanez providing some additional cover at second base and third base.

Rangers Prospect Josh Jung Shut Down Due To Shoulder Strain

By Anthony Franco | February 21, 2022 at 10:45am CDT

Feb. 21: Jung is expected to receive additional opinions this week, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, who ominously adds that the injury could ultimately require surgery.

Feb. 18: The Rangers have shut down third base prospect Josh Jung after he strained the labrum in his left shoulder, the team informed reporters (including Levi Weaver of the Athletic). He incurred the injury while recently lifting weights as part of his preseason training program.

Texas didn’t announce a timetable for his return. He’s slated to undergo further evaluation next week, and it’s possible the injury will prove to be a minor setback. If the issue were to affect his readiness for the start of the season, though, it might delay his big league debut. Jung is widely expected to reach the majors this year after splitting the 2021 campaign between Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Round Rock. He raked at both stops, hitting .308/.366/.544 in Double-A before improving to a .348/.436/.652 showing at the minors’ top level.

Those numbers may have been inflated a touch by a smaller sample, as he was limited to 342 cumulative plate appearances after a stress fracture in his foot delayed his season debut until mid-June. Nevertheless, the right-handed hitter impressed enough in the summer’s final few months to cement his place among the game’s top prospects. The eighth overall pick in 2019 out of Texas Tech (where his brother Jace currently stars), Jung has always hit when healthy. Baseball America rated him among the game’s top 30 prospects this winter, writing that his hit/power combination gives him a chance to be a middle-of-the-order bat.

Jung isn’t regarded as a superlative defender at the hot corner, but evaluators generally believe he could be anywhere from serviceable to solid there. Between those glowing scouting reviews and his high minors performance, the 24-year-old looks likely to get an everyday crack in Arlington at some point in the near future. Jung’s looming arrival — coupled with the free agent spending spree that landed Marcus Semien and Corey Seager — has contributed to some speculation Texas could make infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa available in trade after the lockout.

Without a definitive timetable on Jung, it’s too early to tell whether his injury will affect the front office’s plans for when the transactions freeze concludes. Obviously, it’s also not clear precisely when the MLB season will begin. (Jung is not on the 40-man roster, so he’s not subject to the lockout). Even if the injury lingers past the scheduled start date of the major league season, it’s possible the lockout will carry on long enough that the injury won’t affect his MLB timetable anyhow. Much about the situation remains uncertain, but the Rangers figure to play things very cautiously with one of the most talented young players in the organization.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

By Anthony Franco | February 14, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

The Rangers’ Underappreciated Trade Chip

By Steve Adams | February 14, 2022 at 2:16pm CDT

The Rangers’ decision to cannonball into the deep end of the free-agent pool this offseason has radically reshaped their infield mix and given them one of the top offensive double-play tandems in Major League Baseball. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are slated to hold down the shortstop/second base pairing in Arlington for the next seven seasons.

One side effect of that seismic splash is that it leaves Isiah Kiner-Falefa without a clear-cut defensive home. A Gold Glove winner at third base in 2020, Kiner-Falefa played a strong shortstop in 2021 and had been squarely atop the depth chart there prior to the Seager/Semien stunner. That’s no longer the case, though not through any fault of his own. Kiner-Falefa has been an elite fielder by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and finished third among MLB shortstops in the Fielding Bible’s voting this past season. Metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average aren’t as bullish, but Kiner-Falefa is at worst regarded as a roughly average defender (and generally agreed upon as a good bit more than that).

Beyond his accolades with the glove, Kiner-Falefa is fairly a solid performer at the plate, albeit in more of an “old school” manner. He’s been 13 percent worse than the average hitter, by measure of both wRC+ and OPS+, over the past two seasons — but that’s primarily due to a lack of power. Kiner-Falefa has still posted a solid .273 batting average and a respectable .316 on-base percentage in that time. He’s only drawn a walk in 4.6% of his past 905 plate appearances, but he’s also only fanned in 13.5% of those trips to the plate.

There’s plenty of value derived from Kiner-Falefa’s ability on the basepaths as well. He went 20-for-25 in stolen-base attempts this past season and ranked in the 75th percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. On top of that, Kiner-Falefa has played in all but six of the Rangers’ games dating back to 2020. Only six big league players have appeared in more games than Kiner-Falefa over those two years.

He may not be a star, but Kiner-Falefa is a good defender and baserunner who rarely strikes out and, despite a lack of power, at least gives his club solid at-bats. That’s a valuable player, even if the overall skill set is a bit less typical now than it’d have been a generation ago. A simple course of action is to just shift Kiner-Falefa back to the hot corner, where he won that previously mentioned Gold Glove in 2020. That’d be a straightforward means of addressing the infield, were it not for the presence of fast-rising prospect Josh Jung.

The 24-year-old Jung was the No. 8 overall draft pick in 2019 and has done nothing but hit since he made his professional debut. The former Texas Tech star is widely considered to be among the 40 or so best prospects in all of Major League Baseball and is expected to make his debut in 2022. It’s even arguable that with a good Spring Training showing, Jung could merit an immediate look in the big leagues. He posted a dominant .326/.398/.592 slash between Double-A and Triple-A last year, after all, including a ridiculous .348/.436/.652 output with nine home runs and 14 doubles in 156 Triple-A plate appearances.

Jung has played exclusively at third base in the minors, although as The Athletic’s Keith Law noted in ranking Jung 32nd on his Top 100 prospect list, the Rangers did play him at a few different positions in 2020 at their alternate site. Still, Law calls Jung a solid-average third baseman, and scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs and MLB.com have generally agreed that Jung should be able to handle the position from a defensive standpoint.

Even if the expectation is that Jung rises quickly to the big leagues — be it Opening Day, late April or mid-June — the Rangers don’t necessarily need to do anything with Kiner-Falefa. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an affordable $4.9MM salary in 2022 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2023 season. Asking Kiner-Falefa to keep the hot corner warm for Jung before moving into a super-utility role is a perfectly sound and defensible course of action for a team that is striving for immediately improved on-field results. Kiner-Falefa has strong defensive ratings at each of shortstop, third base and second base — and while he struggled when trying to work as a catcher early in his career, he does at least have 586 MLB innings at the position. At the very least, he’s a better option there than most emergency catchers.

Still, that versatility and affordability also create another path for the Rangers to take: trade Kiner-Falefa to a team that has an immediate infield need. Even with Seager, Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun, the Rangers aren’t expected to compete in 2022. They’re likely looking at 2023 and beyond, when Jung, Jack Leiter, Cole Winn and other top prospects will be more seasoned at the MLB level. Trading Kiner-Falefa now for one more jolt of young talent does carry some long-term appeal, even if it perhaps costs Texas a few wins in the forthcoming season.

The Yankees, for instance, have already been linked to Kiner-Falefa. If they’re indeed reluctant to sign one of the remaining premier shortstops (i.e. Carlos Correa, Trevor Story) to a long-term contract as they instead await the arrival of ballyhooed prospect Anthony Volpe, then Kiner-Falefa would make sense as a quality stopgap who could hold the fort down for the entire 2022 season at the least.

New York is far from the only on-paper fit. The Twins don’t have a clear starter at shortstop at the moment, nor do the Angels. The Astros are still planning for how they’ll replace Correa if he ultimately signs elsewhere, and the Phillies could use a defensive upgrade over Didi Gregorius. Looking to other positions that Kiner-Falefa can handle, the White Sox could install him at second base. The Blue Jays could look for help at either third base or second base.

Suffice it to say, there’s a fairly wide swath of teams that could and quite likely will show interest in Kiner-Falefa when the lockout lifts. Will the Rangers actually make a move, though? That much depends on the strength of offers received.

Texas isn’t going to move Kiner-Falefa solely because of his modest arbitration salary and the fact that he could eventually be used in more of a utility role. If a team makes a strong offer, though, the newfound infield depth will surely prompt president of baseball ops Jon Daniels and GM Chris Young to consider the idea. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News has suggested a couple of times this month that a trade might be likelier late in Spring Training, once Texas has a better sense of where Jung is and once other clubs know what to make of their internal options around the infield.

However things play out, Kiner-Falefa is now a rather valuable luxury item in Texas: well-rounded enough to start at three different infield positions but still likely one step down the depth chart at each spot by season’s end in 2022. Kiner-Falefa has quietly become an underappreciated trade chip, but if the offers presented to Daniels & Co. aren’t sufficient, it never hurts to have an overqualified depth piece in the event of injuries to big-name veterans or a slow start from a top prospect.

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