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Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Blue Jays Sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa

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The Blue Jays have signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa, per a club announcement. It’s a two-year, $15MM deal, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (X link), with another $1MM available in incentives. Kiner-Falefa is represented by ALIGND.

Kiner-Falefa won a Gold Glove as the Rangers’ regular third baseman in 2020, but he hasn’t since played much time at the hot corner, since Texas used him primarily at shortstop in 2021 and the Yankees did the same in 2022.  This past season saw New York shift IKF all around the diamond since Anthony Volpe took over as the everyday shortstop, with Kiner-Falefa racking up a lot of playing time in center field (278 1/3 innings), left field (248 innings), back at third base (240 1/3 innings), right field (40 innings), shortstop (eight innings) and a lone inning as a second baseman.  The public defensive metrics were mixed on his outfield work, but Kiner-Falefa graded pretty well as an infielder, particularly in his return to third base.

With Matt Chapman a free agent, it would seem like the Blue Jays could install Kiner-Falefa as their regular third base option for the time being, giving the club at least a glove-first starter if either Chapman signs elsewhere or if a more clear-cut starter can’t be found.  That said, IKF is probably less of a Chapman replacement than he is a replacement for Whit Merrifield, another right-handed hitter who was deployed regularly as a second base and in the outfield.  Kiner-Falefa adds even more versatility since Merrifield played very little third base and no shortstop.

IKF is also a better defensive fit at third base than any of Toronto’s incumbent crop of infielders, such as Cavan Biggio, Davis Schneider, Santiago Espinal, or Ernie Clement.  Biggio is the only left-handed bat in that group, so it stands to reason the Jays might trade one of the righty-swingers now that Kiner-Falefa is on board.  Adding a more experienced Major Leaguer also gives the Blue Jays more flexibility in giving more minor league evaluation time to top prospects Orelvis Martinez or Addison Barger, who should both be in the Show at some point in 2024 and could factor into the infield picture (particularly at third base).

While Kiner-Falefa may work from a depth and glovework perspective, however, he doesn’t represent much or any help to the Blue Jays’ larger need for offense.  Kiner-Falefa hit .242/.306/.340 over 361 plate appearances with the Yankees last season, essentially matching his .261/.314/.346 slash line over 2415 career PA at the big league level.  This translates to an 81 wRC+ — tied for the fourth-lowest total of any player with more than 2000 PA since the start of the 2018 season.

The lack of offense has limited Kiner-Falefa to 3.8 fWAR over his six Major League seasons, despite his defensive contributions.  He rarely strikes out, yet this contact-hitting approach rarely yields hard contact, and he has little power to speak of with only 26 career home runs.

A two-year, $15MM contract seems like a pretty nice score for Kiner-Falefa with this lack of offense in mind, yet there was still quite a bit of interest in the utilityman on the open market.  The Brewers, Dodgers, Marlins, and Yankees were all linked to Kiner-Falefa on the rumor mill, and Toronto’s own interest in IKF was first cited by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi earlier this month.

Between Kiner-Falefa today and yesterday’s agreement with Kevin Kiermaier, the Blue Jays have sprung into action after a rather quiet offseason caused by the team’s focus on chasing Shohei Ohtani.  The Jays remained at least speculatively linked to a number of other players besides Ohtani, of course, as GM Ross Atkins’ front office routinely checks in on basically every available free agent or trade target as a matter of due diligence.  While Kiner-Falefa and Kiermaier should help preserve the Jays’ excellent defense from 2023, some offensive pop seems necessary, whether at DH or to further bolster the infield or outfield picture.

As per Roster Resource, the Jays’ 2024 payroll projects to be just shy of the $230MM mark with Kiner-Falefa now on the books.  This leaves a bit of space remaining before Toronto hits the $237MM luxury tax threshold, though that isn’t really a barrier considering that the Blue Jays exceeded the tax line (for the first time in franchise history) last season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Dodgers, Marlins, Brewers Have Shown Interest In Isiah Kiner-Falefa

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There are plenty of clubs with some level of interest in utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa — the Yankees and Blue Jays have been linked to him this week — and the former Ranger/Yankees Swiss army knife is also of some interest to the Dodgers, Marlins and Brewers, per Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

At 28 years old (29 in March), Kiner-Falefa is among the younger free agents on the market. Acquired by the Yankees prior to the 2022 season as their hopeful starting shortstop and bridge to top prospect Anthony Volpe, the infielder-turned-catcher-turned-infielder didn’t grab that job and run with it. However, he settled into a versatile utility role in the Bronx, ultimately taking 892 plate appearances during his two seasons there and posting a .253/.311/.333 batting line (84 wRC+) with 10 home runs, 32 doubles, a triple and 36 stolen bases (in 45 tries).

Kiner-Falefa won a Gold Glove as the Rangers’ primary third baseman during the shortened 2020 season and notched 10 Defensive Runs Saved as their main shortstop in 2021. DRS and Statcast have strongly disparate views on his work at shortstop, however, and there was at least some question among team evaluators as to whether Kiner-Falefa could handle that position moving forward. Both the Twins, who originally acquired him from the Rangers, and the Yankees, who acquired him from Minnesota just over a day later, clearly felt Kiner-Falefa could handle shortstop on a generally full-time basis in the 2021-22 offseason.

Even if the Yankees’ opinion of that changed, their fondness of the player did not. New York could’ve non-tendered or traded Kiner-Falefa following the 2022 season with both Volpe and Oswald Peraza on the cusp of the Majors. Instead, they held onto him and used him in a utility capacity this past season, giving Kiner-Falefa his first MLB looks in the outfield (in addition to time at shortstop, second base and third base).

Kiner-Falefa didn’t grade especially well at any one position other than third base this past season, but the newfound versatility undoubtedly enhances his appeal to teams. Given his age, above-average sprint-speed, solid arm strength and the athleticism he’s shown by playing multiple positions, there’s likely some belief that he could yet improve on his glovework at various positions with more experience. Kiner-Falefa also boasts strong bat-to-ball skills (career 15.5% strikeout rate), although he couples that with a well below-average walk rate (career 6.1%).

The right-handed-hitting Kiner-Falefa has generally neutral platoon splits, but as a right-handed hitter who can handle multiple positions on the diamond, he may hold some appeal to the Dodgers, who are said to be seeking a righty bat to potentially platoon with Jason Heyward in right field. Kiner-Falefa’s career .259/.325/.348 slash against lefties doesn’t make him much of a short-side platoon option, but he could give the Dodgers some depth in the outfield and at third base, where slugger Max Muncy is also better off being shielded against southpaws.

In Milwaukee, Kiner-Falefa could provide insurance at both second base and third base, where sophomores Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio are currently slated to start, respectively. (Owen Miller is also in the infield mix at both spots.) Turang, a former first-round pick and top Brewers prospect, hit .218/.285/.300 in 448 plate appearances as a rookie. He struggled regardless of opponent handedness but was particularly overmatched by lefties. Monasterio posted a superior .259/.330/.348 slash and, like Kiner-Falefa, is a right-handed hitter. Kiner-Falefa could take on a larger role in the event that the Brewers chose to option either young infielder.

The Marlins might have the most straightforward fit of this trio: a clear opening at shortstop. Miami plans to keep Jazz Chisholm Jr. in center field and is on the lookout for help at the shortstop position. In-house names like Jon Berti and former top prospect Vidal Brujan (recently acquired from the Rays) could step up in that role, but Kiner-Falefa would offer a more experienced option — one who could seamlessly slide into a utility option if someone like Brujan, 24-year-old Xavier Edwards or 25-year-old Jacob Amaya stepped up and ran with the shortstop job.

Yankees Notes: Third Base, Kiner-Falefa, Peralta

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After landing Alex Verdugo from their arch-rival Red Sox in a rare trade between the sides earlier this evening, the Yankees still figure to look for upgrades to a lineup that ranked 19th in the majors with a 94 wRC+ in 2023 despite another fantastic season from team captain Aaron Judge, who slashed .267/.406/.613 with 37 home runs in just 106 games this season. Those upgrades don’t appear likely to come in the form of an addition at third base, however, as GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) earlier today that the club feels “covered” around the infield and does not consider third base to be an area of need this offseason.

While the Yankees figure to return Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe as established regulars at first base, second base, and shortstop respectively, the hot corner features a little more uncertainty next season. Yankees third basemen slashed a collective .225/.302/.361 this past season, good for an 85 wRC+ that ranked better than just eight teams in 2023. Veteran infielder DJ LeMahieu took most of the club’s reps at the hot corner last season with 67 starts, though each of Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera also contributed as the Yankees mixed-and-matched at the position.

With Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa both having departed the organization, that would seemingly leave LeMahieu in line to receive the most reps at the position once again in 2024. The 35-year-old veteran just completed the third season of his six-year, $90MM contract with the Yankees. LeMahieu got roughly league average results (101 wRC+) at the plate in 2023 with a .243/.327/.390 slash line in 136 games. While LeMahieu’s 15 home runs tied his 2018 total with the Rockies for the second-highest of his career in a single season, the added power came at the cost of discipline. LeMahieu struck out at a career-high 22.2% clip this past season, well above both his career average of 15.2% and the 13.1% mark he posted in 2022.

Despite the additional whiffs as LeMahieu enters his mid-thirties, the veteran is likely still the club’s best option at the hot corner entering the year as both Cabrera and Peraza are coming off disastrous offensive seasons at the plate. While Peraza performed solidly at the Triple-A level with a 108 wRC+ in 300 plate appearances, the 23-year-old looked over-matched in the big leagues with a meager .191/.267/.272 slash line in a 52 games in the majors. Cabrera, meanwhile, appeared in 115 games for the Yankees as a utility player and struggled similarly across 330 big league plate appearances, slashing just .211/.275/.299 in that time.

Even as Cashman suggests the club is set at third with their internal options, Hoch reports that the club is at least considering adding one more bat to their infield mix: Kiner-Falefa. Jon Heyman of the New York Post echoes Hoch’s report of interest in bringing IKF back to the Bronx, but makes clear that the Yankees are far from alone in their interest in the utilityman; Heyman suggests that as many as 12 teams have interest in Kiner-Falefa’s services this offseason. The 28-year-old doesn’t contribute much at the plate, as he posted an 82 wRC+ in 2023 that nearly matches his career mark of 81, but he makes up for that lack of offensive ability with strong glovework all around the diamond.

Kiner-Falefa began his big league career as a backup catcher, though he hasn’t appeared behind the plate since the 2019 season. Since then, he’s proved to be an elite defensive infielder, winning a Gold Glove at third base in 2020 while offering strong defense at shortstop as well. IKF further expanded his defensive profile in 2023, appearing in 78 games on the outfield grass including 278 1/3 defensive innings of work in center field. While Kiner-Falefa’s strongest defensive marks come on the infield dirt, he posted a respectable +1 OAA and -1 DRS in center this season, potentially making him an attractive bench piece for teams in need of defensive versatility.

IKF isn’t the only outgoing free agent the Yankees reportedly have interest in retaining, as both Heyman and Hoch suggest the club has discussed a reunion with lefty reliever Wandy Peralta. Peralta, 32, has spent parts of eight seasons in the big leagues splitting time between three organizations but saw his career reach a new level since joining the Yankees partway through the 2021 season. Across 165 appearances in pinstripes, Peralta posted a 2.82 ERA that was 49% better than league average by measure of ERA+, though his 4.00 FIP leaves something to be desired. Advanced metrics are particularly critical of Peralta’s 2023 campaign. Despite a sterling 2.83 ERA in 54 innings, the southpaw posted a 5.05 FIP, 4.50 xFIP and 4.44 SIERA this past season.

Much of that disparity is thanks to a whopping 13.2% walk rate that was papered over in terms of Peralta’s raw run prevention numbers thanks to a microscopic .218 BABIP allowed and a career-high 85.2% strand rate. Despite those red flags, however, Peralta has gotten results in each of the past four seasons with a 3.01 ERA dating back to the start of the 2020 season. Much of that success has been thanks to Peralta’s excellence against left-handed hitters, to whom he’s surrendered a slash line of just .213/.308/.330 throughout his big league career. That’s surely a particularly attractive trait for the Yankees, who currently sport just two left-handed relief options on their 40-man roster in Nick Ramirez and Matt Krook.

Blue Jays Interested In Brantley, Pederson, Kiner-Falefa

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The Blue Jays have been linked to such high-profile names as Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto, and others on the free agent and trade markets, yet the team isn’t only focusing on these top-tier names to address their roster needs.  According to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Jays have interest in free agent outfielders Michael Brantley and Joc Pederson, as well as utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

These names have long been on the radar of Jays GM Ross Atkins, who has at least explored the possibility of acquiring all of the trio in the past.  Kiner-Falefa was targeted at the last trade deadline, Pederson was targeted during his last stint in free agency during the 2021-22 offseason, and Brantley reportedly seemed on the verge of signing with Toronto in the winter of 2020-21 before opting to return to the Astros at something of the eleventh hour.

To some extent, Brantley or Pederson could be seen as backup plans if Toronto didn’t acquire Soto, since left field is the primary defensive spot for all three players.  A world exists where the Blue Jays could trade for Soto and then sign one of the other two outfielders, with an eye towards using Brantley or Pederson primarily as a designated hitter (with Soto or George Springer also getting some DH time for partial rest days).  Such a scenario might somewhat run counter to the Jays’ focus on defense over the last year, though Daulton Varsho would still be anchoring center field, and the Jays might be willing to sacrifice some glovework to boost their middling lineup.

In the bigger picture, none of Brantley, Pederson, or Kiner-Falefa would really be obstacles to any bigger-name acquisitions the Blue Jays might have in mind.  The three veterans are all likely to be had on one-year contracts, similar to Toronto’s signings of Kevin Kiermaier or Brandon Belt last winter.

Pederson hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 home runs over 425 plate appearances for the Giants last season, as his 111 wRC+ was still quite respectable but a big step down from the 146 wRC+ posted in 2022.  It was something of an unusual year for Pederson in 2023, as he cut back on his strikeouts and increased his walk rate, but seemingly at the cost of a good chunk of his usual power.  Pederson still had some of the best hard-contact numbers of any player in the league, and a .268 BABIP and a big gap in his wOBA (.331) and his xwOBA (.366) indicates that the 31-year-old might’ve been somewhat unlucky to post only a 111 wRC+.

That said, 2022 does stand out as something of an outlier amongst Pederson’s last four seasons, and even his career in general.  Without much baserunning or defensive value, Pederson projects best as a DH (or part-time left fielder or first baseman), and limiting him to plate appearances against only right-handed pitching is preferable given his career splits.

Brantley would also have to be considered a part-time option due to his health, as shoulder surgery and recurring soreness kept Brantley out of action from June 2022 until August of last season.  He amassed 89 total PA with the Astros during the regular season and postseason, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Brantley’s eventual contract contains a lot of incentive clauses tied to playing time.  The former five-time All-Star showed only flashes of his old self at the plate in 2023, though it is possible another full offseason of rest and rehab might get Brantley back into something closer to his past form.

Kiner-Falefa is in some ways the easiest player to project of the trio, as the 28-year-old has pretty firmly established himself as a light-hitting jack of all trades who can provide at least respectable defense at a wide variety of positions.  A Gold Glove winner with the Rangers as a third baseman in 2020, IKF could be viewed by the Blue Jays as a potential glove-first replacement for Matt Chapman at the hot corner, with the Jays then presumably looking to add bigger bats to fill their other holes at second base, left field, or DH.  If Toronto doesn’t think enough of Kiner-Falefa’s bat to merit a semi-starting role, he could simply be a top utility option off the bench, giving the Blue Jays some flexibility in how hard they need to push on any one of their particular positions of need.

As usual, Atkins is seemingly keeping tabs on just about every prominent player on the market, and Davidi hears from player agents that the Blue Jays are “planning to shift quickly if needed” should their attempts at a superstar acquisition fall short.  In terms of Ohtani specifically, Davidi is doubtful the two-time AL MVP will ultimately land in Toronto, yet the Jays aren’t really costing themselves by exploring the possibility since the position-player market is moving quite slowly.  It could be that several teams and players are in the same boat as the Blue Jays in waiting on Ohtani’s decision to open up the market to a fuller extent.

Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Approach

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With the Yankees in last place in the AL East despite a decent 55-51 record, their path forward remains somewhat murky with less than four hours to go before the trade deadline. Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicates that the club could look to both buy and sell, searching for long-term controllable pieces in areas of need while fielding offers on the pending free agents on their roster.

Several of the club’s pending free agents, including Luis Severino and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, have had difficult seasons in 2023, but could nonetheless draw interest as low-cost, depth additions from other clubs. Lefty Wandy Peralta, who has a 2.29 ERA in 47 appearances out of New York’s bullpen this year, and center fielder Harrison Bader have both fared better in their walk years, with Bader in particular drawing interest per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Sherman more specifically notes that the Yankees and Phillies have discussed Bader, though there is “limited traction” on a deal between the sides.

Sherman adds that the Yankees have discussed closer Clay Holmes in trade talks, despite Holmes being controllable through the 2024 campaign. That being said, Sherman noted that the asking price for Holmes is exorbitant, rendering a deal regarding the club’s closer unlikely. The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty adds to that doubt, noting that it’s “highly unlikely” the club parts with either Holmes or fellow leverage reliever Michael King.

As far as buying goes, the club has been frequently connected to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson in the days and weeks leading up to the deadline, and those connections haven’t stopped today. Kuty, Sherman, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand have are among those who have linked the Yankees and Carlson recently. That being said, Heyman cautions that the Cardinals are unlikely to deal Carlson unless they get a young MLB starter in return. That’s a price the Yankees could pay if they so chose, with youngsters Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito currently occupying spots in the club’s starting rotation.

As Feinsand notes, that Carlson’s ability to play quality defense in center field could be of particular value given Bader’s status as a pending free agent. Carlson could take over for Bader in center immediately in the event of a trade before the deadline, or play left field for the remainder of the 2023 campaign and shift over to center in the event Bader departs via free agency this offseason.

Yankees Open To Offers On Impending Free Agents

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The Yankees dropped tonight’s 5-1 contest to the Rays. They’re at 55-51 heading into the deadline, last place in the AL East despite being four games above .500. New York is only 3.5 out of a Wild Card spot and recently welcomed Aaron Judge back, but they’ve gone 21-27 since the start of June.

With around 18 hours before the deadline, general manager Brian Cashman and his front office find themselves with a difficult balancing act. Whether to add for a playoff push, entertain offers on veterans, or attempt to walk the line by doing both is in question. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported before tonight’s loss that the Yankees were telling other clubs they’re willing to entertain trade offers on their impending free agents.

Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Yankees are strictly bucketing themselves as “sellers.” Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted this afternoon New York was still searching the market for outfield help. Meanwhile, Derrick Goold of the St, Louis Post Dispatch reports the Yanks are among the teams that have reached out to the Cardinals on starter Jack Flaherty — though it isn’t clear how recent that interest is.

It seems Cashman and his front office could entertain multiple moves that blur the line between buying and selling. Their impending free agents are having relatively disappointing seasons, though they could find varying levels of interest in each (not including Frankie Montas and Josh Donaldson, whose injuries and high salaries make them essentially impossible to move).

Harrison Bader has continued to battle injury issues, missing time with oblique and hamstring problems. He’s gotten into 57 games, connecting on seven homers but with a modest .283 on-base percentage. While it’s his second straight below-average offensive showing, Bader is an elite center fielder and has stolen 10 bags in 12 attempts. He’s playing on a $4.7MM salary and should have a decent amount of appeal on a trade market light on position player talent.

Left-hander Wandy Peralta would be a fairly straightforward target for clubs seeking relief depth. He’s holding same-handed hitters to a putrid .091/.242/.091 batting line in 67 plate appearances. Peralta has a 2.29 ERA in 37 1/3 innings overall. His strikeout and walk numbers are both subpar but he’s picking up grounders at an elite 64.1% clip while averaging 96 MPH on his sinker. He’s making $3.35MM in his final arbitration season.

There’d be less appeal with either Luis Severino or Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The former is playing on a lofty $15MM salary and having a nightmarish season. He’s been tagged for a 7.49 ERA across 12 starts. His formerly plus strikeout rates have fallen to a meager 18% clip. Severino’s velocity remains intact, but he’s not missing bats on either his changeup or slider at typical levels and is giving up tons of hard contact.

Kiner-Falefa, playing on a $6MM arbitration salary, has moved into a multi-positional role after serving as the primary shortstop in 2022. He’s spending the bulk of his time in the outfield, where he has slightly below-average reviews from public defensive marks. Kiner-Falefa is hitting .257/.322/.374 in 240 trips to the plate, making plenty of contact without much power.

Flaherty, of course, is an impending free agent himself. If New York’s interest in the Cards’ righty was somewhat recent, it’d obviously be with this season in mind. It’s hard to imagine the Yankees completely throwing in the towel in 2023. Each of their impending free agents is having a middling (or downright poor) enough season that they could move someone in the group while still looking for immediate help in other areas.

There could also be financial considerations at play. Roster Resource projects the Yankees’ competitive balance tax number just above $294MM. That’s a bit north of the $293MM that marks the highest tier of luxury penalization. Offseason reports indicated Yankees’ ownership was reluctant to go above that mark, although there are no non-monetary penalties for doing so. Offloading the money still owed to the likes of Bader or Peralta could allow them to dip below that number.

Players like Gleyber Torres and Clay Holmes are into arbitration and would surely attract interest from other clubs, though there’s nothing to suggest the Yankees on taking offers on players who can be controlled beyond this season. Both Torres and Holmes are eligible for arbitration once more.

Yankees Notes: Judge, Deadline Approach, Florial

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The Yankees have dropped three straight games and have now tallied just two victories in their past 10 contests. Sitting in the unfamiliar setting of last place in the American League East, there are mounting questions about the team’s trade deadline approach. It would be out of character, to say the least, for the Yankees to engineer a wide-scale selloff at the deadline. And with New York still only two and a half games back from an AL Wild Card spot, that seems decidedly unlikely.

That said, the Yankees also have a porous roster, particularly with Aaron Judge on the injured list and facing a nebulous timeline for his return. General manager Brian Cashman said yesterday that it’s fair to characterize Judge’s return as “close” before taking a noncommittal stance on whether that constituted a matter of days or weeks (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It remains unclear when the reigning AL MVP will return to the lineup; the Yankees are hitting .223/.294/.374 as a team in his absence.

With the team reeling and currently in the AL East cellar, there have naturally been calls from the fans for the Yankees to sell at the deadline, a possibility that was discussed on the most recent episode of the MLBTR Podcast. At least to some extent, that could wind up being the case. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that the Yankees could work to dip under the top tier of the luxury tax in over the next couple weeks. Presumably, that’d come by dealing away short-term players — those who’ll reach free agency at season’s end or perhaps those controlled only through the 2024 season.

At least with regard to their crop of impending free agents, however, that could be easier said than done. Luis Severino has struggled to a 6.66 ERA in 48 2/3 innings thus far, and the underlying metrics don’t give much cause for optimism. His 17.4% strikeout rate is a career-low, and his 9.4% walk rate is the second-highest of his career. He’s averaged 2.22 homers per nine innings pitched, yielding hard contact at the highest rate of his career, and is sitting on career-low swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates.

Utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, meanwhile, is hitting just .251/.309/.369. That’s 11% worse than average, by measure of wRC+. Acquired to be a stopgap at shortstop, Kiner-Falefa has just eight innings at that position in 2023 and has been used primarily as an outfielder this season. Defensive metrics haven’t provided a strong review of his glovework there, however.

Center fielder Harrison Bader is also a free agent at season’s end and is playing his customary brand of standout defense. However, his .275 on-base percentage also ranks 295th of the 326 players with at least 150 plate appearances this season. His overall .246/.275/.427 batting line checks in below average.

Frankie Montas, of course, hasn’t thrown a pitch this season. Trading any of Severino ($15MM in 2023), Montas ($7.5MM), Kiner-Falefa ($6MM) or Bader ($4.7MM) could be enough to dip the Yankees under the top tier of luxury penalization, as Roster Resource currently has them at $294.1MM — just $1.1MM over the limit.

The most palatable rental option for the Yankees to trade would be southpaw Wandy Peralta, who’s earning $3.35MM this season. He’s currently sporting a 2.48 ERA, but his 19.5% strikeout rate is below average and his 13.6% walk rate is an obvious eyesore. Still, Peralta is averaging just shy of 96 mph on his heater and also possesses a huge 63.2% ground-ball rate.

Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a Gleyber Torres trade, which could simultaneously fetch more talent in return and also trim payroll more than any of those rentals aside from Severino. He’s earning $9.95MM in 2023 and hitting a solid .264/.333/.430 with 14 homers. The Yankees also have an in-house, MLB-ready alternative in young Oswald Peraza, who struggled in the Majors earlier but is slashing a .261/.352/.495 in Triple-A.

Looking at the situation as a whole, however, the final tax barrier is an odd line to draw in the sand. It’s a purely monetary line of penalization, and the Yankees are only narrowly north of it. The Yankees already committed to having their top pick in next year’s draft pushed back by 10 places when they exceeded the third tier of penalty, which sits at $273MM.

Striving to dip under that threshold would perhaps be logical but also unrealistic; trimming more than $21MM from the remaining payroll at this juncture of the season would be immensely difficult. Trades at this stage would only spare the Yankees the remainder those players’ salaries. That’s roughly $5.3MM on Severino, $1.7MM on Bader, $2.1MM on Kiner-Falefa, $1.2MM on Peralta and $3.5MM on Torres. Even trading that entire quintet would only get the Yankees about two-thirds of the way there.

None of that even takes into consideration the possibility of the Yankees simultaneously adding pieces, either. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted earlier in the week that in addition to the Yankees’ desire to upgrade in the outfield, they’ve been monitoring the catching, starting pitching and bullpen markets. That wide swath of needs speaks to the predicament in which the Yankees currently find themselves, but it’s notable that as of Monday the team appeared set on — or at least open to adding some pieces. Both Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson and Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk have been of some interest to the Yankees, per Feinsand. Carlson, controlled through 2026, would be an affordable and long-term solution in the outfield.

The Yankees potentially have another affordable and controllable option down in Triple-A, where former top prospect Estevan Florial has put together a huge season. Designated for assignment on Opening Day and unclaimed on waivers, Florial has batted .291/.388/.535 with an already career-high 21 homers in just 335 plate appearances.

That production hasn’t been enough to get him a look in the big leagues, however. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic took a look at Florial’s situation, speaking to Triple-A skipper Shelley Duncan and others about the 25-year-old’s work ethic and motivation in the wake of that DFA and subsequent outright. It’s frankly surprising that the Yankees have continued to lean on journeymen Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero and the aforementioned Kiner-Falefa in the outfield rather than give Florial some type of audition. Kuty suggests the team could look to trade him at the deadline, which could be a means of adding help in another area.

Broadly speaking, it’s strange to be discussing the Yankees in this context. They’re typically a motivated buyer at the trade deadline, one that has often acted aggressively and decisively in an effort to tighten their existing grip on a postseason spot. It’s a different feel in the Bronx this season, however, and various, simultaneous reports regarding payroll reduction, selling off short-term players and the possibility to add at virtually any spot on the roster only underscore the uncertainty surrounding the team.

We increasingly see modern front offices toe the line between “buyer” and “seller,” making moves in both directions in a given deadline season. The Yankees appear poised for such a hybrid approach to the ’23 deadline, though their play in the next couple weeks will surely prove instructive as well. If they’re able to right the ship and go on a winning streak of any note, Cashman & Co. could be emboldened to make moves that fall closer to the win-now side of the scale. Should the pendulum swing in the other direction, there’d be more urgency to take a step back and employ a longer-term focus.

The Yankees have one more game in Anaheim, where they’ve already lost two, before returning home to host struggling Royals and Mets teams for a combined five games. They’ll then head to Baltimore for three games and have one game against the division-leading Rays before the deadline rolls around. Their performance against a pair of sub-.500 teams on that homestand and in the subsequent four games against the top two teams in their own division will be worth watching with a careful eye; every win or loss is crucial at this point.

The Upcoming Shortstop Class Looks Increasingly Bleak

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The top free agent storyline of each of the past two offseasons was the respective star-studded shortstop classes. In 2021-22, it was Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Báez. Last winter, Correa was back on the market again, joined by Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson.

Next winter’s group was never going to rival that previous collection. The class in general is very light on star position player talent beyond Shohei Ohtani. It’s particularly barren up the middle of the diamond. It’s hard to imagine a more complete 180° turn than how things appear to be trending with the shortstop class, though. Virtually everyone involved is off to a very slow start.

The early-season performances from the impending free agents at the position:

Amed Rosario (28)*

While Rosario is not the superstar some evaluators had anticipated during his time in the Mets’ farm system, he’d been a solid regular for two seasons since landing in Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster. Rosario’s solid batting averages helped offset his very low walk tallies. He hit 25+ doubles with double-digit homers in both 2021-22, playing on a near everyday basis. His cumulative .282/.316/.406 batting line was almost exactly league average. Public metrics were mixed on Rosario’s defense but the Guardians have been content to keep him at shortstop despite plenty of upper minors infield talent. Only 27 and without a ton of market competition, he entered the year in position for a strong three or four-year contract.

That could still be the case but Rosario is doing himself no favors with his early performance. He’s sitting on a .217/.262/.300 showing through his first 130 plate appearances. He has just one homer and is striking out at a 29.2% clip that’d easily be the worst full-season mark of his career if it holds. After making contact on 81.3% of his swings last season, he’s putting the bat on the ball only 71.5% of the time this year. He’s also committed six errors in 255 1/3 innings after being charged with just 12 in more than 1200 frames last year. Rosario is still the top impending free agent shortstop by default but he’s struggling in all areas right now.

Javier Báez (31), can opt out of final four years and $98MM on his contract

Báez is hitting .256/.318/.376 through his first 130 plate appearances. That’s an improvement over the lackluster .238/.278/.393 line he managed during his first season in Detroit. His 16.2% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, pushing his overall offense near league average in spite of just three home runs in 32 games. Báez’s 2023 campaign has been fine but hardly overwhelming. It’s nowhere near what it’d take for him to beat the $98MM remaining on his existing contract. He’d need a torrid summer to put himself in position to test free agency.

Enrique Hernández (32)

Hernández has been pushed into primary shortstop duty by the Red Sox’ various injuries. The early reviews from public defensive metrics aren’t favorable, with Statcast putting him at seven outs below average in 199 innings. Hernández is off to an equally slow start at the plate. He’s hitting .236/.295/.362 over 139 plate appearances on the heels of a .222/.291/.338 showing last year. He’s been a valuable super-utility option and everyday center fielder at times in his career, including a 20-homer campaign in 2021. The past year-plus hasn’t been especially impressive, though, and Hernández has yet to demonstrate he’s capable of handling shortstop regularly from a defensive standpoint.

Brandon Crawford (37)

The career-long Giant had a tough April on both sides of the ball. He’s hitting .169/.244/.352 with a personal-high 28.2% strikeout rate in 21 games. His defensive marks through 173 2/3 innings are unanimously below-average. A right calf strain sent him to the injured list last week. Even if Crawford is willing to explore all opportunities next winter after 13 seasons in San Francisco, he’ll need much better production once he returns from the IL to find any interest as a starting shortstop.

Elvis Andrus (35)

Much of what applies to Crawford is also true for Andrus. He’s a 15-year MLB veteran with a couple All-Star appearances to his name but his offense has fallen off in recent seasons. Andrus was a well below-average hitter from 2018-21. He rebounded with a solid .249/.303/.404 showing last season but still didn’t generate much free agent attention. After settling for a $3MM deal with the White Sox, he’s hitting only .208/.291/.264 in 142 plate appearances this year. Andrus hit 17 homers last season but has just one through the first six weeks.

Nick Ahmed (34)

Another glove-first veteran, Ahmed is also off to a rough start at the plate. He carries a .227/.239/.318 line over 67 plate appearances. He’s hit only one home run and walked just once. Ahmed has always been a bottom-of-the-lineup defensive specialist, but his career .235/.289/.380 slash is much more tenable than the production he’s managed thus far in 2023. He lost almost all of last season to shoulder surgery.

Gio Urshela (32)

Urshela is hitting plenty of singles to start his time in Orange County. His .303 batting average is impressive but is paired with just a .325 on-base percentage and .345 slugging mark. He’s walking at a career-low 3.3% clip and has only three extra-base hits (two doubles and a homer) in 123 plate appearances.

More concerning for teams looking to the shortstop market is Urshela’s lack of experience at the position. He’s been a third baseman for the majority of his career. Since landing with the Angels, he’s assumed a multi-positional infield role that has given him eight-plus starts at shortstop and both corner infield spots. Even if he starts hitting for more power, he’s better deployed as a versatile infielder who can moonlight at shortstop than an everyday solution there.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (28)

Kiner-Falefa lost his starting shortstop role with the Yankees towards the end of last season. He’s been kicked into a multi-positional capacity this year and hasn’t logged a single inning at the position in 2023. While Kiner-Falefa presumably could still handle shortstop if asked, he’s contributed nothing offensively in the early going. Through 72 plate appearances, he owns a .191/.225/.206 line.

Adalberto Mondesí (28)

Mondesí is young and has flashed tantalizing tools throughout his major league career. He’s also reached base at a meager .280 clip over 358 MLB games and battled various injuries. An April 2022 ACL tear cut that season short after just 15 games. The Red Sox nevertheless acquired him from the Royals over the offseason, but he’s yet to play a game with Boston. Mondesí opened the season on the 60-day injured list and won’t make his Sox debut until at least the end of this month. There’s a chance for him to play his way into some free agent interest. He’ll need an extended stretch of health and performance.

Players With Club Options

Both Tim Anderson and Paul DeJong can hit free agency if the White Sox and Cardinals decline respective 2024 club options. That seems likely in DeJong’s case but is reflective of the .196/.280/.351 line he managed between 2020-22. If he plays well enough to warrant significant free agent interest — he has been excellent in 11 games this season, to his credit — the Cardinals would exercise their $12.5MM option and keep him off the market anyhow.

The White Sox hold a $14MM option on Anderson’s services. That looks as if it’ll be a no-brainer for Chicago to keep him around (or exercise and make him available in trade). The only way Anderson gets to free agency is if his 2023 season is decimated by injury or an uncharacteristic performance drop-off, in which case he’d be a question mark as well.

Outlook

This was never going to be a great group. It’s comprised largely of glove-first veterans in their mid-30s. Players like Andrus, Ahmed, Crawford and José Iglesias — who’ll also hit free agency and has bounced around on minor league deals thus far in 2023 — don’t tend to be priority targets. That opened the door for the likes of Rosario, Báez and a potentially healthy Mondesí — younger players who have shown some offensive upside — to separate themselves from the pack in a way they wouldn’t have the last couple winters. No one has seized the mantle to this point. While there are still more than four months for someone to emerge, the early returns on the shortstop class aren’t promising.

*age for the 2024 season

Latest On The Yankees’ Shortstop Battle

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As top prospect Anthony Volpe continues to make a strong case to win the Yankees’ starting shortstop job this spring, Andy Martino of SNY reports that the team are not close to making a decision on who’ll start there on Opening Day.

Volpe, fellow youngster Oswald Peraza, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and to a lesser extent Oswaldo Cabrera have all been in the mix for the shortstop job this spring. The Yankees seemingly prefer Cabrera in a utility role, and the injury to starting center fielder Harrison Bader means he could be called upon for more outfield reps to start the season, so it appears safe to rule him out of the starting job at short.

Kiner-Falefa was the starter for the bulk of the 2022 season, but looks to be headed for more of a utility role himself this season, with the Yankees working him out around the infield, and even giving him starts in the outfield. He’s owed $6MM in his final year of arbitration, and has been speculated as a possible trade candidate given the Yankees’ glut of middle infielders. The Dodgers were one such team thrown around as a possible destination in the wake of Gavin Lux’ injury, but it appears that’s unlikely, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting they’re not interested.

It’s perhaps not surprising that Kiner-Falefa isn’t of interest to the Dodgers. While a $6MM salary is affordable for a team like the Dodgers, it looks steep for a player who only hit for an 85 wRC+ (15 percentage points below the league average), and has a career wRC+ of 82. The team also already has a shortstop in Miguel Rojas, who doesn’t hit a ton, plays decent defense and is owed $5MM in 2023, so it may be that acquiring Kiner-Falefa would just mean bringing in another player who profiles very similar to their in-house option.

In any case, it does appear that Kiner-Falefa is an outsider in the shortstop battle, which leaves it down to Peraza and Volpe. Peraza, 22, is probably the favorite, given he impressed in a short stint in the big leagues last year, hitting .306/.404/.429 across 57 plate appearances and starting in a playoff game. Martino’s report also details how scouts have generally favored Peraza’s glove at short over Volpe’s.

Yet it seems foolish to rule out Volpe. Coming into spring it seemed he was very much a candidate for a mid-season call-up, but probably not an option for Opening Day. He has, after all, only appeared in 22 games at Triple-A. However, the 21-year-old has impressed the team with his bat, slashing .294/.415/.588 going into Saturday’s games (and Volpe is again in the lineup, leading off and playing shortstop today), and with the way he’s carried himself off the diamond, earning the praise of a number of team mates.

With Opening Day less than two weeks away now, the countdown is on to see who is manning short when the Yankees host the Giants on March 30.

Poll: Will The Yankees Trade Isiah Kiner-Falefa Before Opening Day?

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From the moment the Yankees originally acquired Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins, the expectation has been that he’d serve as a bridge to top infield prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. At the time of the trade — which also saw Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt go the Bronx while sending Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela to Minnesota — Kiner-Falefa had two years of club control remaining. That generally aligned with the timetables for both Peraza and Volpe, allowing them to develop in ’22 while Kiner-Falefa held down shortstop before perhaps moving into a utility role.

That’s generally how it’s played out. Peraza impressed in an 18-game cup of coffee late in the 2022 season and entered camp with a chance to break the Opening Day roster as the Yankees’ everyday shortstop. Volpe entered spring training as a longer shot to make the Opening Day roster for a variety of reasons. He’s a year younger than Peraza, has just 99 plate appearances above the Double-A level and is not currently on the 40-man roster. Still, he’s turned in an impressive spring training and begun to see some time at second base, further planting the seed that he could be in the Majors alongside Peraza sooner than later — certainly at some point in 2023.

The looming ascension of both Peraza and Volpe is enough to cloud Kiner-Falefa’s role on the team on its own, but last year’s strong debut from the versatile Oswaldo Cabrera only adds to the pile-up of infield talent. The switch-hitting 24-year-old worked primarily in the outfield last year but has experience at all four infield spots. After hitting .247/.312/.429 in 171 plate appearances as a 23-year-old rookie, he’s staked his claim to a spot on this year’s roster as well.

The Yankees were aware of this depth but still saw value in holding onto Kiner-Falefa at a generally reasonable $6MM price point for his final season of club control. Spring injuries are always possible, and there was certainly a scenario where any combination of Peraza, Volpe and/or Cabrera got to spring training and looked vastly overmatched at the plate. That hasn’t really been the case, and it’s made Kiner-Falefa’s role on the 2023 club look a bit more questionable — particularly with Gleyber Torres still penciled in at second base and Donaldson returning at the hot corner.

To that end, the Yankees have begun getting Kiner-Falefa some reps in the outfield. The 27-year-old said just this morning that he expects to play center field in Friday’s Grapefruit League game (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). With Harrison Bader out for the first several weeks of the season due to an oblique strain, Kiner-Falefa could bolster his value to the Yankees if he looks capable of handling some reps on the grass, be it in center field or in left. Aaron Judge or Aaron Hicks can both handle all three outfield spots, so strictly excelling in center isn’t necessarily a requirement for Kiner-Falefa.

That said, it’s hard not to recognize the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade coming together at some point. The Yankees, after all, have been loath to cross the fourth and final luxury tax barrier. Their backs are right up against that threshold at the moment, and dealing Kiner-Falefa would trim $6MM off that luxury bill, creating some breathing room that could be a key for the front office this summer when the trade deadline is looming.

Beyond that, Kiner-Falefa is still a useful utility option for a team that perhaps doesn’t have as much infield depth as the Yankees — and perhaps even a starting-caliber option on a handful of clubs. Defensive metrics are split on his glovework at shortstop, but he can at the very least handle the position and has won a Gold Glove at third base. He’s a capable second baseman, has experience catching and could be an emergency option behind the dish, and now he’s at least familiarizing himself with the outfield.

At the plate, Kiner-Falefa isn’t a standout but can at least provide a solid batting average and get on base at a roughly league-average clip. He lacks power but also has plus bat-to-ball skills. The .269/.316/.348 slash he’s authored over the past three seasons is about 14% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+. It’s not good, but Kiner-Falefa is far from a black hole at the plate and has value with the glove and on the bases, where he’s gone 42-for-51 (82.4%) in stolen bases over the past two seasons.

Kiner-Falefa’s fit with the Yankees isn’t as clean as it was before Peraza, Volpe and Cabrera were MLB-ready or extremely close to it, but there’s probably still a role for him if Volpe opens the season in Triple-A. Even if the Yankees hold onto Kiner-Falefa, however, he could be pushed out of the picture by midseason if all of Peraza, Volpe and Cabrera remain healthy. A trade at some point, whether this summer or even before Opening Day, shouldn’t come as a shock — especially considering the aforementioned luxury-tax benefits a deal would bring about.

The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner opined in this morning’s mailbag column that he thinks the Yankees will explore a Kiner-Falefa trade between now and Opening Day. That certainly doesn’t mean a deal will come together, but it’s a good indicator of what could be on the horizon with regard to the versatile infielder’s future in the Bronx.

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