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J.T. Realmuto

Latest On Astros, LeMahieu, Correa

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12:43PM: In an update to his original story, Rosenthal writes that the Astros are “not engaged in any active conversations on Correa.”  The team has, however, been in touch with LeMahieu.

11:39AM: The Astros are “floating” Carlos Correa’s name in trade talks with other teams, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  This isn’t the first time that Correa has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, though last year, then-general manager Jeff Luhnow shot down the possibility.

The root cause of Houston’s openness to a Correa trade remains the same — the team considers it “unlikely” that the shortstop will sign an extension before he hits free agency.  Correa is now only one season away from hitting the open market, as he is slated to be part of an elite group of shortstops headlining the 2021-22 free agent class.

Beyond Correa’s contract, naturally, the Astros face an entirely new set of issues that weren’t present when they thought about moving Correa last winter, ranging from the sign-stealing scandal that ousted Luhnow and then-manager A.J. Hinch, revenue losses caused by the pandemic, to Justin Verlander being lost to Tommy John surgery for the 2021 season.  Plus, the Astros also face the loss of two other notable position players, as George Springer and Michael Brantley are both free agents.

Moving Correa on top of losing both Springer and Brantley could almost make 2021 into something of a mini-rebuild type of season for Houston, though there hasn’t been any indication that the Astros are looking to take much of a step backwards.  For instance, the Astros have had talks with Brantley and (as a replacement for Springer in center field) Jackie Bradley Jr.

However, Rosenthal reports that the Astros aren’t likely to pursue any of Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, or DJ LeMahieu, as since those players rejected qualifying offers, Houston would have to give up draft picks in order to sign them.  This isn’t an appetizing thought for an organization that already lost multiple picks as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Re-signing their own free agent in Springer (who also turned down a QO) wouldn’t cost the Astros any picks, of course, though Houston might prefer to restock their draft coffers with the compensatory pick received if Springer signed elsewhere.

Trading Correa would also theoretically net a good return for the Astros, though a lot of factors will impact his market.  Teams might not be keen on paying a premium for just one year of Correa’s services, and there are several other options available to shortstop-needy teams in both free agency (Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, Ha-Seong Kim) and in trades (Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez).

Correa is coming off a season that saw him hit only .264/.326/.383 over 221 plate appearances in the regular season, but he caught fire during Houston’s postseason run, with a whopping 1.221 OPS over 55 PA.  Correa is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and is projected to earn $8.8MM under the “37 percent” calculation method of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Poll: Which Qualifying Offer Free Agent Will Sign First?

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The deadline for accepting the qualifying offer has come and gone, with two players (the Mets’ Marcus Stroman and the Giants’ Kevin Gausman) opting to accept the one-year, $18.9MM deal from their most recent team.  That leaves four other players in this year’s QO class, all of whom rejected the one-year offer — Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, and DJ LeMahieu.

There was some debate over whether or not Stroman or Gausman would even receive a qualifying offer, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that the two hurlers each chose to accept rather than test the open market.  For the other four, however, there was no doubt that each would receive and reject the QO since more lucrative, longer-term offers surely await in free agency.  Bauer, Realmuto, Springer, and LeMahieu take up four of the top five places on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only Marcell Ozuna — who was ineligible for another qualifying offer after being issued one last winter — interceding in the #4 spot.

Now that the QO detail has been settled, the question is which of the quartet will be the first to land that lucrative, long-term contract?  (And, it should be noted that “long-term” may not necessarily be the case in regards to Bauer.)  All of the financial uncertainty of the 2020-21 offseason might not necessarily impact these top-tier free agents in terms of overall earning potential, though the ripple effects of other signings elsewhere in the market could impact when exactly these big four stars sign their next contract.

For instance, there is some thought around baseball that this will be another slow winter for offseason activity, as the strained payrolls throughout the sport will make teams even more wary about making big free agent investments.  A large group of new free agents is expected to flood the market by the December 2 non-tender deadline, so teams might wait until that date to make any sort of significant move so they can assess all of their options.  A team in need of catching, for example, could hold off on making an offer to Realmuto until they know whether or not the Yankees could actually non-tender Gary Sanchez.

But this poll isn’t asking who the last to sign will be, it’s who will be the first.  As mentioned, Bauer/Realmuto/Springer/LeMahieu could be shielded in many respects from the crunch that other free agents are likely to face, and could get a lot of early attention from teams looking to make their offseason as simple as possible.  In the case of the Yankees and LeMahieu, a relatively quick re-signing would allow New York to check off one big box, and then figure out how to address other needs with what resources remain (if the Yankees are indeed trying to get under the $210MM luxury tax threshold).

With so much up in the air about the 2021 season, there’s a case to be made that any of these free agents would prefer to get a new contract locked up soon, so they can fully focus on getting ready for whatever challenges 2021 may bring.  If we reach March and there’s still question as to whether or not the pandemic will allow Opening Day to proceed as scheduled, or if the 2021 season will still be 162 games or not, no player would want the added uncertainty of still not knowing where they’ll be playing whenever Opening Day does occur.

Cast your vote, which of the Qualifying Offer Four will be the first to land their new contract? (Poll link for app users)

George Springer, J.T. Realmuto Decline Qualifying Offers

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The final qualifying offer decisions are in, as both George Springer of the Astros and J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies have declined their qualifying offers, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Astros and Phillies will receive compensatory draft picks if/when they sign with another club. The final tally has four players declining (Springer, Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer) and two accepting their qualifying offer (Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman).

Realmuto, 30 next season, will be the top catcher on the free agent market by a wide margin. His power and athleticism is unmatched behind the plate, and he’s faster than he looks. Realmuto has everything you look for in a catcher, but at 30-years-old, there are still some questions as far as how well he’ll fare in the current climate. Time will tell, but after slashing .273/.333/.492 with 36 home runs over 192 games in his Phillies’ tenure, Realmuto should have no shortage of suitors. The tastemakers here at MLBTR pegged him as 2nd on our list of Top-50 Free Agents in the market, naming the Mets, Reds, Nationals, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, Cardinals, Astros, and Angels as potential suitors.

Springer, 31, has his own bugaboo that makes this foray into the free market an interesting one. There are few holes in his resume, but the part he played in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal will continue to be a line item on any story involving Springer. Still, with a 153 wRC+ since 2019, the ability to play center or left, and 5.0 rWAR per 650 plate appearances throughout his career, Springer will get some attention this winter.

Besides, not that we believe in this sort of thing anymore, but he’s nails in the postseason. He boasts a playoff triple slash of .269/.349/.546 over an absurd 63 career games with 19 home runs and 38 RBIs. That extrapolates out to 49 HRs and 98 RBIs over 162 games. He’s tied for 4th all-time in playoff home runs and currently ranks 5th in championship win probability added. We temper our expectations when it comes to sustainability in high-leverage situations, but we can still marvel at the success Springer has managed thus far in his career (with the now-usual caveat for his part in the sign-stealing).

The MLBTR soothsayers have Springer third on our Top-50 Free Agents list, with the White Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets as possible destinations. Even with the rejection of the qualifying offer, a return to Houston cannot be ruled out either.

NL Notes: Giants, Phillies, Free Agent Spending

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Everything is on the table for the Giants this winter, per the Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly. It’s a different kind of offseason this year, but the constant is that teams always need to build their depth, says Giants President Farhan Zaidi. Baggarly provides this quote from Zaidi, who says, “Look, we’re in a big market. We consider ourselves a signature franchise. When you look at that group of teams, there’s always an expectation for how they might act.”

Zaidi and the Giants view themselves as being in a transition phase, and many in the industry would agree. At the same time, as Zaidi points out, they’re coming off a season in which they just missed the playoffs. If a below-market opportunity jumps out at Zaidi, the Giants could end up as buyers in free agency, even at the upper levels for the right guy, it seems. But there’s not likely to be a quick-strike headline for San Francisco. Broadly speaking, Zaidi predicts a slow-moving market this winter.

The Phillies expect to be slow-movers as well, per the Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro. Team President Andy MacPhail – who for now remains the top decision-maker in the baseball ops department – said in reference to the Phillies’ plans for free agency (per Montemurro), “…the likelihood of a significant add, I think, in the short term or even midterm is not very high.” MacPhail also generally observes that teams are more concerned with subtraction than addition at this point in the offseason. Even in a normal year, trimming payroll where possible and maximizing open spots on 40-man rosters predates most additions in free agency. This year more than most, however, teams have prepped the baseball-sphere for the prospect of limited spending.

By MacPhail’s account, Philly plans on being one of the more judicious clubs this winter. That’s not great news for those hoping to see J.T. Realmuto return to the Keystone State. Still, his statement leaves some room for a bigger move down the line. As Zaidi pointed out, it’s likely to be a slow market this winter on the whole. MacPhail could simply be prepping the fanbase not to expect a big signing, as he says, in the short-or-near-term. Long-term, the Phillies could potentially jump to the buyers column. Realmuto, however, is one of the free agents likelier to sign on the earlier side, given his standing as the top catcher on the market.

Six Players Extended Qualifying Offers

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Six players will be extended qualifying offers this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Those players are:

None of the players issued the QO comes as a particular surprise. Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Springer were all easy calls for their respective teams. Each of that group will certainly reject the offer. Stroman and Gausman might’ve been tougher calls but had been reported previously.

More notable are the series of players who were not issued a QO. Astros outfielder Michael Brantley will hit the market unencumbered, as he did when he became a free agent two years ago. Oakland didn’t issue a QO to either of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks, while the Phillies and Angels decided against an offer for Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, respectively. The six players issued a qualifying offer is down from last offseason’s ten, which isn’t much of a surprise since this winter is expected to be particularly tough for players in the wake of teams’ pandemic-driven revenue losses.

The players issued the qualifying offer will now have ten days to weigh their options. Players who reject the offer and become free agents will cost their signing teams draft compensation (or the right to recoup draft compensation if they sign with their current team). Here is a full run-down of the qualifying offer rules this offseason.

Latest On Phillies’ Front Office, J.T. Realmuto

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Phillies president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail met with media members (including Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) on Friday to discuss some of the key issues surrounding the club. For one, MacPhail had to address his own future with the franchise. The longtime executive confirmed that 2021 will be his last year in the majors, adding that it’s possible he’ll step down before the season ends.

For now, MacPhail is part of the Phillies’ search for a new front office leader. He doesn’t object to hiring a different president of baseball ops, though it may be quite some time before the Phillies bring in a new general manager to replace the reassigned Matt Klentak. In fact, it’s “likely” that interim GM Ned Rice will remain in the role in 2021, Zolecki relays.

No matter who holds the GM spot next year, Phillies fans surely want to see improvement after a ninth straight season without a playoff berth. They may be able to bolster their roster this winter via the open market, but MacPhail indicated that “he doesn’t expect any big moves in free agency until later in the process,” Lauber tweets. That could bode poorly for the Phillies’ chances of re-signing their No. 1 free agent, catcher J.T. Realmuto, who’s arguably the best position player available and someone who could sign one of the richest deals ever for someone at his position. Philadelphia does still have interest in bringing back, as you’d expect, though it seems unlikely to happen should the team avoid an aggressive offseason.

Bigger Contract: George Springer Or J.T. Realmuto?

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Barring extensions over the next couple of weeks, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto and Astros outfielder George Springer will enter free agency as the two best position players on the open market. Realmuto is by far the premier catcher slated to reach free agency, where other options such as James McCann (White Sox) and Yadier Molina (Cardinals) will pale in comparison. Likewise, Springer’s easily the top center field-capable player who could soon become available. The question now is whether Realmuto or Springer will make more on his next contract.

Realmuto, a soon-to-be 30-year-old who has been the majors’ most valuable catcher since 2017, has an opportunity to set a record in terms of annual earnings at his position. Former Twin Joe Mauer holds the record at eight years and $184MM on the extension he signed in 2010. Realmuto doesn’t seem to stand much chance of eclipsing Mauer’s total guarantee, but the $23MM per annum the ex-Minnesota standout raked in appears to be a realistic target.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Springer earn a similar amount on a yearly basis. Although he is older than Realmuto (31), Springer has been a star-level performer since his career began in 2014. And dating back to last season, Springer has slashed .284/.376/.576 with 53 home runs. He ranks seventh among qualified hitters in wRC+ (153) and ninth in fWAR (8.4) since 2019.

Unlike Realmuto, Springer probably isn’t going to set any kind of record for earning power at his position. However, that doesn’t mean Springer won’t out-earn Realmuto on a five- or six-year deal (which MLBTR expects the two to receive). Both players will be saddled with qualifying offers, but that shouldn’t dim teams’ enthusiasm if and when they hit the market. Which player do you think will wind up with a higher guarantee on his next pact?

(Poll link for app users)

 

Latest On The Catching Market, Realmuto, Sánchez

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J.T. Realmuto will be the best catcher on the free agent market this winter – and one of the best players of any measure. The two-time All-Star should have no shortage of potential suitors when the bidding begins. Though their opportunity to filibuster is nearing an end, the Phillies aren’t yielding the floor quite yet. Expect interim GM Ned Rice and President Andy MacPhail to continue their efforts to bring the Oklahoman back to Philadelphia. A true two-way serviceman like Realmuto with elite skills on both sides of the ball will wag the tails of more than a few executives around the game, however.

Realmuto will turn 30-years-old in March of next season, and any team that signs him will have to be aware of the threat the aging curve poses to his long-term productivity. And yet, it’s not as if we haven’t seen productive offensive catchers in the past. Similar performers of the past can provide insight into how well Realmuto may age as he enters his thirties (and how much he might be worth over the life of that next contract), which the Athletic’s Tim Britton explores. Looking at a collection of catchers with similar career arcs to Realmuto’s, Britton lands on either a four-year, $96MM deal or a six-year, $128MM deal as the proper valuation for Realmuto’s services moving forward.

It’s worth mentioning, Realmuto’s future viability could benefit from a rule change or two. If the designated hitter stays in the National League, for instance, Realmuto’s next club could keep him fresh into his thirties while still allowing his bat to play. He is one of the rare catchers whose bat could conceivably play at DH. But there’s also the possibility of electronic strike zones, which could lessen the detriment that aging has on a catcher’s defensive performance.

But electronic strike zones aren’t coming next season, and it’s hard to know when exactly they may enter everyday use. It’s that very issue that threatens the employability of bigger-body backstops like Gary Sánchez, Wilson Ramos, and Jorge Alfaro, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman provides this interesting insight from an anonymous executive, “When the automated strike zone comes maybe you can have a DH catch because framing will mean nothing or maybe if we give the catcher an earpiece and can feed him every pitch, game calling will mean nothing. But we are asking catchers to make 150 decisions a game and have deep relationships with every pitcher and more than ever you cannot throw the defensive component away.”

Each of Sánchez, Ramos, and Alfaro lost playing time down the stretch and in the playoffs to better defensive catchers. Sánchez in particular faced a rather public “benching.” As the playoffs wore on and Sánchez struggled to light a fuse at the plate, the Yankees increasingly went with Kyle Higashioka as their primary receiver. Sánchez has another round of arbitration this winter after making a full-scale salary of $5MM in 2020, but the Yankees are likely to try and move him before the contract tender date of December 2nd, writes Sherman.

Given the state of the game amid the pandemic, rampant revenue losses make for a more uncertain winter than any in recent memory. The number of teams capable of luring J.T. may be limited if the price for entry is in the neighborhood suggested by Britton. James McCann and Mike Zunino represent the “best of the rest,” though the trade market could add a player like Sánchez to grease the wheels. Take another look at our free agency preview, provided here by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, but it’s certainly going to be interesting to see the length, duration, and location of Realmuto’s next deal.

AL East Notes: Sanchez, Red Sox, Beane, Orioles, Blue Jays

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Gary Sanchez’s nightmarish 2020 season has turned him into a question mark for the Yankees moving forward, and the club at least considered turning the page earlier this year.  According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, “the Yankees were open to the idea of trading” Sanchez back in August prior to the trade deadline.  Given how adamant GM Brian Cashman has been about Sanchez not being a trade candidate in the past, this seems like a noteworthy shift in thinking, though not an unexpected one given how badly Sanchez struggled this season.

Feinsand included this news tidbit as part of a larger piece about J.T. Realmuto’s likeliest suitors this winter, with the Yankees ranked second on that list.  Signing Realmuto would be the biggest possible way to upgrade at catcher, but it isn’t clear if the Yankees are willing (or able) to make another huge spending splash in the wake of 2020’s major revenue losses.

More from the AL East…

  • Since front office hiring negotiations aren’t usually recreated as movie scenes, it is common knowledge that the Red Sox tried to lure Billy Beane away from Oakland in 2002.  However, the Athletic’s Evan Drellich (Twitter link) reports that the Sox made a much more recent overture for Beane’s services, asking the Athletics for permission to speak with Beane just last year when the Sox were looking for a new front office boss.  Chaim Bloom ended up being hired as the Red Sox chief baseball officer, though it’s possible Bloom could have been hired to work under Beane, as Red Sox ownership wanted “a senior voice for someone more inexperienced.”  As it turned out, Bloom became the top voice in Boston’s baseball operations pyramid and Beane remained with the A’s, though Beane’s future has become the subject of speculation in recent days.
  • The Orioles are looking to replace pitching coach Doug Brocail and third base coach Jose Flores, though MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko hears that the team could look to fill the positions internally.  A source tells Kubatko that the team is “rearranging things” in the wake of the tumultuous 2020 season, and moving already-employed personnel into those coaching roles would be a way for the O’s to save money.  Beyond just the financial aspect, the Orioles are expected to be making some changes to their minor league coaching and developmental staffs as well, so internal promotions could be a part of those plans (not to mention keeping people within the organization if any of Baltimore’s farm teams are contracted).
  • The use of an alternate training site was an imperfect solution to the lack of a minor league baseball season, though some teams found some pluses to the approach.  As Laura Armstrong of the Toronto Star writes, the adjustments made by such players as Alejandro Kirk and T.J. Zeuch allowed them to contribute at the big league level and become part of the Blue Jays’ plans for 2021.  While Jays GM Ross Atkins wants to see traditional minor league ball back, Atkins said “I do feel like we were able to make some really targeted progress” with prospects at the alternate site.  The Jays plan to carry over some developmental processes from the alternate site once minor league baseball eventually resumes.

Phillies To Place Rhys Hoskins On 10-Day IL

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The Phillies will place first baseman Rhys Hoskins on the 10-day injured list with a left UCL injury, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports. In better news for the club, catcher J.T. Realmuto (hip flexor) will avoid the IL, while right-hander Zack Wheeler (finger) should return to the mound this week.

The Hoskins news continues a rough few days for the Phillies, who have dropped three in a row – including a 6-2 defeat to the Marlins on Monday. The 27-year-old Hoskins hasn’t played since Saturday, when he suffered a forearm injury, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to take the field again this season. Time’s running out in 2020 for him and the Phillies, who are an even 23-23 but are still in possession of a playoff spot in the National League.

If Philly does break its eight-year playoff drought this season, it’ll have Hoskins to thank to some extent. Although Hoskins is stuck in an 0-for-10 slump, he has slashed a rather effective .245/.384/.503 (138 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 185 plate appearances. That’ll be tough production for the Phillies to replace in the season’s final couple weeks, especially considering Hoskins has played almost every game at first for the team this base. Otherwise, only the now-gone Neil Walker and the historically light-hitting Phil Gosselin have lined up there for the Phillies.

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