Latest On James McCann, Mets
Dec. 9: Talks between the Mets and McCann have recently gained further momentum, per Martino.
Dec. 4: While the Mets have stepped up their efforts on the McCann front, there were still multiple other clubs negotiating with his camp as of last night, Jon Morosi reported on MLB Network this morning (video link).
Dec. 3, 12:44pm: While talks are ongoing, the two sides are not yet close to finalizing a deal, tweets Martino.
12:31pm: The Mets are in “active talks” with McCann, tweets Fansided’s Robert Murray, who adds that a four-year deal indeed looks possible. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Mets are making a “serious push” to land the former White Sox backstop.
12:28pm: While the Mets have been linked to J.T. Realmuto ever since news of Steve Cohen’s purchase of the franchise broke, reports surrounding the team’s pursuit of a catcher have pointed in other directions early in the offseason. SNY’s Andy Martino reported recently that James McCann was more firmly in the team’s crosshairs, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post now suggests the same, citing executives from two other teams involved in the free-agent catching market who believe the Mets’ pursuit of McCann is “intensifying.”
Certainly that doesn’t mean that a deal is close to fruition, and it’s eminently possible that McCann’s reps are broadcasting confidence to other clubs that does not quite align with New York’s actual level of aggression. Still, it’s worth noting that one of the execs to whom Sherman spoke suggested McCann could even command a four-year deal given the early activity on the second-tier market for catchers.
A four-year pact would be a surprise for even the most bullish projections. We oscillated between a two- and three-year deal for McCann when discussing predictions for our Top 50 Free Agent rankings, with majority ultimately leading to two-year prediction. Four years was never a real consideration. McCann’s 2019-20 run with the White Sox was quite strong, as he made considerable gains in his production at the plate (.276/.334/.474), the underlying metrics behind that output (career-high hard-hit rate, exit velocity, barrel rate) and in terms of his ability to frame pitches — particularly his ability to gain strike calls at the bottom of the zone. However, his 2018 season in Detroit led to a non-tender, and as good as he’s been with the South Siders across the past two seasons, it’s a sample size of 587 plate appearances.
If the Mets do indeed prefer a smaller-scale deal with McCann to the likely $100MM+ contract that Realmuto will command at some point this offseason, they’d have ample resources left to pursue other big-ticket items — be it free-agent pursuits of George Springer, Trevor Bauer and/or DJ LeMahieu or trade negotiations for a prominent name (Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor, Colorado’s Nolan Arenado, Chicago’s Kris Bryant, etc.). They’ve already crossed one item off their shopping list, having introduced righty Trevor May on a new two-year contract this afternoon.
Whether a deal ultimately comes together remains to be seen, though if the early weeks of the offseason have told us anything, it’s that if the reports on their increased interest in McCann aren’t accurate, Cohen himself may just make that known to the world on Twitter.
Latest On Blue Jays’ Free Agent Targets
2:24PM: Toronto also has interest in J.T. Realmuto, according to Sports Grid’s Craig Mish (Twitter link). While the Jays have a fair amount of catching depth already on hand, Realmuto would obviously present a big upgrade over current starter Danny Jansen, backup Reese McGuire, and top prospect Alejandro Kirk. If the Blue Jays did sign Realmuto, it’s fair to assume the Jays would shop at least one of their in-house catchers to other teams.
12:32PM: For the second straight offseason, the Blue Jays are checking in on a wide range of free agent options. The club has already been linked to George Springer and DJ LeMahieu, and now The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) adds that Toronto has spoken with representatives for Michael Brantley and Justin Turner, and the Jays also made an offer to Kevin Gausman before Gausman accepted the Giants’ one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. Going beyond only established big leaguers, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the Jays have interest in Korean shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, noting that Toronto has “evaluated him closely.”
Beginning with the position players, Brantley, Turner, and Kim would each cost less than the likes of Springer or LeMahieu. MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents had Brantley and Turner right next to each other in the No. 13 and 14 positions, projecting the two veterans for similar contracts — Brantley a two-year, $28MM pact and Turner for two years and $24MM. Kim ranked seventh on the list due to his younger age (25), projected for a five-year, $40MM deal and another $7.625MM in a posting fee to the KBO League’s Kiwoom Heroes.
Brantley turned 34 in May and is seemingly less of a positional need for the Jays since he has exclusively played as a left fielder or DH over the last five seasons. Toronto already has Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left field and a Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Rowdy Tellez tandem penciled in for the first base and DH roles, so a Brantley signing would to hint that a trade could be in the offing. Guerrero has been vocal about wanting to play third base again, so conceivably the Jays could find room for Brantley without a trade, but it doesn’t seem too likely that the team would install Guerrero as a full-time option at the hot corner.
Turner or Kim would be the easier positional fit since either could immediately slide into the Blue Jays’ open third base spot. Turner just celebrated his 36th birthday yesterday and, like Brantley, continues to swing a powerful bat into his 30’s. A return to Los Angeles is certainly possible, however, as Rosenthal writes that Turner “still appears to be [the Dodgers’] first choice” in terms of infield additions, though they perhaps couldn’t be ruled out as a potential suitor for LeMahieu. While Turner’s positive coronavirus test during Game 6 of the World Series and subsequent post-game return to the field to celebrate with his Dodgers teammates adds an inescapably strange footnote to his career, Turner won’t face any league discipline for the breach of COVID-19 protocol.
Signing Kim would be perhaps the most intriguing move possible, as unlike Brantley or Turner, Kim would be seen as a long-term building block to a Toronto organization that is already stocked with young infield talent both on the MLB roster and in the farm system. While Kim could play third base immediately, he is also a well-regarded defensive shortstop, so the Blue Jays could experiment with trying Kim at short and moving current shortstop Bo Bichette to second or third base (with Cavan Biggio playing the other position).
Adding Kim might also made it more feasible for the Jays to trade one of their top infield prospects, with Jordan Groshans, Miguel Hiraldo, or Orelvis Martinez probably more likely to be moved than 2020 fifth-overall pick Austin Martin. Since Martin is also a multi-positional threat, the Jays might try to develop him as a center fielder if Kim is signed to bolster the infield picture. The Blue Jays (and the 29 other MLB teams) will get their first chance to directly speak with Kim after his 30-day negotiating window opens on November 26.
While possibilities abound on the position player side, pitching is Toronto’s chief focus this winter, so it isn’t surprising that they made an early pitch for Gausman. Rosenthal reports that the Jays offered Gausman a three-year deal worth roughly $40MM, though the right-hander instead opted for the one-year deal to remain in San Francisco. Should Gausman deliver another good season in 2021 and then return to the free agent market next winter, he’ll surely receive offers beyond the two years and $21.1MM he left on the table to accept the Giants’ qualifying offer.
Latest On Astros, LeMahieu, Correa
12:43PM: In an update to his original story, Rosenthal writes that the Astros are “not engaged in any active conversations on Correa.” The team has, however, been in touch with LeMahieu.
11:39AM: The Astros are “floating” Carlos Correa‘s name in trade talks with other teams, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required). This isn’t the first time that Correa has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, though last year, then-general manager Jeff Luhnow shot down the possibility.
The root cause of Houston’s openness to a Correa trade remains the same — the team considers it “unlikely” that the shortstop will sign an extension before he hits free agency. Correa is now only one season away from hitting the open market, as he is slated to be part of an elite group of shortstops headlining the 2021-22 free agent class.
Beyond Correa’s contract, naturally, the Astros face an entirely new set of issues that weren’t present when they thought about moving Correa last winter, ranging from the sign-stealing scandal that ousted Luhnow and then-manager A.J. Hinch, revenue losses caused by the pandemic, to Justin Verlander being lost to Tommy John surgery for the 2021 season. Plus, the Astros also face the loss of two other notable position players, as George Springer and Michael Brantley are both free agents.
Moving Correa on top of losing both Springer and Brantley could almost make 2021 into something of a mini-rebuild type of season for Houston, though there hasn’t been any indication that the Astros are looking to take much of a step backwards. For instance, the Astros have had talks with Brantley and (as a replacement for Springer in center field) Jackie Bradley Jr.
However, Rosenthal reports that the Astros aren’t likely to pursue any of Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, or DJ LeMahieu, as since those players rejected qualifying offers, Houston would have to give up draft picks in order to sign them. This isn’t an appetizing thought for an organization that already lost multiple picks as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal. Re-signing their own free agent in Springer (who also turned down a QO) wouldn’t cost the Astros any picks, of course, though Houston might prefer to restock their draft coffers with the compensatory pick received if Springer signed elsewhere.
Trading Correa would also theoretically net a good return for the Astros, though a lot of factors will impact his market. Teams might not be keen on paying a premium for just one year of Correa’s services, and there are several other options available to shortstop-needy teams in both free agency (Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, Ha-Seong Kim) and in trades (Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez).
Correa is coming off a season that saw him hit only .264/.326/.383 over 221 plate appearances in the regular season, but he caught fire during Houston’s postseason run, with a whopping 1.221 OPS over 55 PA. Correa is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and is projected to earn $8.8MM under the “37 percent” calculation method of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Poll: Which Qualifying Offer Free Agent Will Sign First?
The deadline for accepting the qualifying offer has come and gone, with two players (the Mets’ Marcus Stroman and the Giants’ Kevin Gausman) opting to accept the one-year, $18.9MM deal from their most recent team. That leaves four other players in this year’s QO class, all of whom rejected the one-year offer — Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, and DJ LeMahieu.
There was some debate over whether or not Stroman or Gausman would even receive a qualifying offer, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that the two hurlers each chose to accept rather than test the open market. For the other four, however, there was no doubt that each would receive and reject the QO since more lucrative, longer-term offers surely await in free agency. Bauer, Realmuto, Springer, and LeMahieu take up four of the top five places on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only Marcell Ozuna — who was ineligible for another qualifying offer after being issued one last winter — interceding in the #4 spot.
Now that the QO detail has been settled, the question is which of the quartet will be the first to land that lucrative, long-term contract? (And, it should be noted that “long-term” may not necessarily be the case in regards to Bauer.) All of the financial uncertainty of the 2020-21 offseason might not necessarily impact these top-tier free agents in terms of overall earning potential, though the ripple effects of other signings elsewhere in the market could impact when exactly these big four stars sign their next contract.
For instance, there is some thought around baseball that this will be another slow winter for offseason activity, as the strained payrolls throughout the sport will make teams even more wary about making big free agent investments. A large group of new free agents is expected to flood the market by the December 2 non-tender deadline, so teams might wait until that date to make any sort of significant move so they can assess all of their options. A team in need of catching, for example, could hold off on making an offer to Realmuto until they know whether or not the Yankees could actually non-tender Gary Sanchez.
But this poll isn’t asking who the last to sign will be, it’s who will be the first. As mentioned, Bauer/Realmuto/Springer/LeMahieu could be shielded in many respects from the crunch that other free agents are likely to face, and could get a lot of early attention from teams looking to make their offseason as simple as possible. In the case of the Yankees and LeMahieu, a relatively quick re-signing would allow New York to check off one big box, and then figure out how to address other needs with what resources remain (if the Yankees are indeed trying to get under the $210MM luxury tax threshold).
With so much up in the air about the 2021 season, there’s a case to be made that any of these free agents would prefer to get a new contract locked up soon, so they can fully focus on getting ready for whatever challenges 2021 may bring. If we reach March and there’s still question as to whether or not the pandemic will allow Opening Day to proceed as scheduled, or if the 2021 season will still be 162 games or not, no player would want the added uncertainty of still not knowing where they’ll be playing whenever Opening Day does occur.
Cast your vote, which of the Qualifying Offer Four will be the first to land their new contract? (Poll link for app users)
Who will sign first?
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DJ LeMahieu 40% (5,845)
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George Springer 23% (3,274)
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Trevor Bauer 19% (2,714)
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J.T. Realmuto 18% (2,617)
Total votes: 14,450
George Springer, J.T. Realmuto Decline Qualifying Offers
The final qualifying offer decisions are in, as both George Springer of the Astros and J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies have declined their qualifying offers, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Astros and Phillies will receive compensatory draft picks if/when they sign with another club. The final tally has four players declining (Springer, Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer) and two accepting their qualifying offer (Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman).
Realmuto, 30 next season, will be the top catcher on the free agent market by a wide margin. His power and athleticism is unmatched behind the plate, and he’s faster than he looks. Realmuto has everything you look for in a catcher, but at 30-years-old, there are still some questions as far as how well he’ll fare in the current climate. Time will tell, but after slashing .273/.333/.492 with 36 home runs over 192 games in his Phillies’ tenure, Realmuto should have no shortage of suitors. The tastemakers here at MLBTR pegged him as 2nd on our list of Top-50 Free Agents in the market, naming the Mets, Reds, Nationals, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, Cardinals, Astros, and Angels as potential suitors.
Springer, 31, has his own bugaboo that makes this foray into the free market an interesting one. There are few holes in his resume, but the part he played in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal will continue to be a line item on any story involving Springer. Still, with a 153 wRC+ since 2019, the ability to play center or left, and 5.0 rWAR per 650 plate appearances throughout his career, Springer will get some attention this winter.
Besides, not that we believe in this sort of thing anymore, but he’s nails in the postseason. He boasts a playoff triple slash of .269/.349/.546 over an absurd 63 career games with 19 home runs and 38 RBIs. That extrapolates out to 49 HRs and 98 RBIs over 162 games. He’s tied for 4th all-time in playoff home runs and currently ranks 5th in championship win probability added. We temper our expectations when it comes to sustainability in high-leverage situations, but we can still marvel at the success Springer has managed thus far in his career (with the now-usual caveat for his part in the sign-stealing).
The MLBTR soothsayers have Springer third on our Top-50 Free Agents list, with the White Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets as possible destinations. Even with the rejection of the qualifying offer, a return to Houston cannot be ruled out either.
NL Notes: Giants, Phillies, Free Agent Spending
Everything is on the table for the Giants this winter, per the Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly. It’s a different kind of offseason this year, but the constant is that teams always need to build their depth, says Giants President Farhan Zaidi. Baggarly provides this quote from Zaidi, who says, “Look, we’re in a big market. We consider ourselves a signature franchise. When you look at that group of teams, there’s always an expectation for how they might act.”
Zaidi and the Giants view themselves as being in a transition phase, and many in the industry would agree. At the same time, as Zaidi points out, they’re coming off a season in which they just missed the playoffs. If a below-market opportunity jumps out at Zaidi, the Giants could end up as buyers in free agency, even at the upper levels for the right guy, it seems. But there’s not likely to be a quick-strike headline for San Francisco. Broadly speaking, Zaidi predicts a slow-moving market this winter.
The Phillies expect to be slow-movers as well, per the Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro. Team President Andy MacPhail – who for now remains the top decision-maker in the baseball ops department – said in reference to the Phillies’ plans for free agency (per Montemurro), “…the likelihood of a significant add, I think, in the short term or even midterm is not very high.” MacPhail also generally observes that teams are more concerned with subtraction than addition at this point in the offseason. Even in a normal year, trimming payroll where possible and maximizing open spots on 40-man rosters predates most additions in free agency. This year more than most, however, teams have prepped the baseball-sphere for the prospect of limited spending.
By MacPhail’s account, Philly plans on being one of the more judicious clubs this winter. That’s not great news for those hoping to see J.T. Realmuto return to the Keystone State. Still, his statement leaves some room for a bigger move down the line. As Zaidi pointed out, it’s likely to be a slow market this winter on the whole. MacPhail could simply be prepping the fanbase not to expect a big signing, as he says, in the short-or-near-term. Long-term, the Phillies could potentially jump to the buyers column. Realmuto, however, is one of the free agents likelier to sign on the earlier side, given his standing as the top catcher on the market.
Six Players Extended Qualifying Offers
Six players will be extended qualifying offers this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Those players are:
- Trevor Bauer, Reds RHP
- Kevin Gausman, Giants RHP (story)
- DJ LeMahieu, Yankees 2B
- J.T. Realmuto, Phillies C
- George Springer, Astros OF
- Marcus Stroman, Mets RHP (story)
None of the players issued the QO comes as a particular surprise. Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Springer were all easy calls for their respective teams. Each of that group will certainly reject the offer. Stroman and Gausman might’ve been tougher calls but had been reported previously.
More notable are the series of players who were not issued a QO. Astros outfielder Michael Brantley will hit the market unencumbered, as he did when he became a free agent two years ago. Oakland didn’t issue a QO to either of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks, while the Phillies and Angels decided against an offer for Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, respectively. The six players issued a qualifying offer is down from last offseason’s ten, which isn’t much of a surprise since this winter is expected to be particularly tough for players in the wake of teams’ pandemic-driven revenue losses.
The players issued the qualifying offer will now have ten days to weigh their options. Players who reject the offer and become free agents will cost their signing teams draft compensation (or the right to recoup draft compensation if they sign with their current team). Here is a full run-down of the qualifying offer rules this offseason.
Latest On Phillies’ Front Office, J.T. Realmuto
Phillies president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail met with media members (including Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) on Friday to discuss some of the key issues surrounding the club. For one, MacPhail had to address his own future with the franchise. The longtime executive confirmed that 2021 will be his last year in the majors, adding that it’s possible he’ll step down before the season ends.
For now, MacPhail is part of the Phillies’ search for a new front office leader. He doesn’t object to hiring a different president of baseball ops, though it may be quite some time before the Phillies bring in a new general manager to replace the reassigned Matt Klentak. In fact, it’s “likely” that interim GM Ned Rice will remain in the role in 2021, Zolecki relays.
No matter who holds the GM spot next year, Phillies fans surely want to see improvement after a ninth straight season without a playoff berth. They may be able to bolster their roster this winter via the open market, but MacPhail indicated that “he doesn’t expect any big moves in free agency until later in the process,” Lauber tweets. That could bode poorly for the Phillies’ chances of re-signing their No. 1 free agent, catcher J.T. Realmuto, who’s arguably the best position player available and someone who could sign one of the richest deals ever for someone at his position. Philadelphia does still have interest in bringing back, as you’d expect, though it seems unlikely to happen should the team avoid an aggressive offseason.
Bigger Contract: George Springer Or J.T. Realmuto?
Barring extensions over the next couple of weeks, Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto and Astros outfielder George Springer will enter free agency as the two best position players on the open market. Realmuto is by far the premier catcher slated to reach free agency, where other options such as James McCann (White Sox) and Yadier Molina (Cardinals) will pale in comparison. Likewise, Springer’s easily the top center field-capable player who could soon become available. The question now is whether Realmuto or Springer will make more on his next contract.
Realmuto, a soon-to-be 30-year-old who has been the majors’ most valuable catcher since 2017, has an opportunity to set a record in terms of annual earnings at his position. Former Twin Joe Mauer holds the record at eight years and $184MM on the extension he signed in 2010. Realmuto doesn’t seem to stand much chance of eclipsing Mauer’s total guarantee, but the $23MM per annum the ex-Minnesota standout raked in appears to be a realistic target.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Springer earn a similar amount on a yearly basis. Although he is older than Realmuto (31), Springer has been a star-level performer since his career began in 2014. And dating back to last season, Springer has slashed .284/.376/.576 with 53 home runs. He ranks seventh among qualified hitters in wRC+ (153) and ninth in fWAR (8.4) since 2019.
Unlike Realmuto, Springer probably isn’t going to set any kind of record for earning power at his position. However, that doesn’t mean Springer won’t out-earn Realmuto on a five- or six-year deal (which MLBTR expects the two to receive). Both players will be saddled with qualifying offers, but that shouldn’t dim teams’ enthusiasm if and when they hit the market. Which player do you think will wind up with a higher guarantee on his next pact?
(Poll link for app users)
Who will get the higher guarantee?
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J.T. Realmuto 53% (6,713)
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George Springer 47% (5,951)
Total votes: 12,664
Latest On The Catching Market, Realmuto, Sánchez
J.T. Realmuto will be the best catcher on the free agent market this winter – and one of the best players of any measure. The two-time All-Star should have no shortage of potential suitors when the bidding begins. Though their opportunity to filibuster is nearing an end, the Phillies aren’t yielding the floor quite yet. Expect interim GM Ned Rice and President Andy MacPhail to continue their efforts to bring the Oklahoman back to Philadelphia. A true two-way serviceman like Realmuto with elite skills on both sides of the ball will wag the tails of more than a few executives around the game, however.
Realmuto will turn 30-years-old in March of next season, and any team that signs him will have to be aware of the threat the aging curve poses to his long-term productivity. And yet, it’s not as if we haven’t seen productive offensive catchers in the past. Similar performers of the past can provide insight into how well Realmuto may age as he enters his thirties (and how much he might be worth over the life of that next contract), which the Athletic’s Tim Britton explores. Looking at a collection of catchers with similar career arcs to Realmuto’s, Britton lands on either a four-year, $96MM deal or a six-year, $128MM deal as the proper valuation for Realmuto’s services moving forward.
It’s worth mentioning, Realmuto’s future viability could benefit from a rule change or two. If the designated hitter stays in the National League, for instance, Realmuto’s next club could keep him fresh into his thirties while still allowing his bat to play. He is one of the rare catchers whose bat could conceivably play at DH. But there’s also the possibility of electronic strike zones, which could lessen the detriment that aging has on a catcher’s defensive performance.
But electronic strike zones aren’t coming next season, and it’s hard to know when exactly they may enter everyday use. It’s that very issue that threatens the employability of bigger-body backstops like Gary Sánchez, Wilson Ramos, and Jorge Alfaro, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman provides this interesting insight from an anonymous executive, “When the automated strike zone comes maybe you can have a DH catch because framing will mean nothing or maybe if we give the catcher an earpiece and can feed him every pitch, game calling will mean nothing. But we are asking catchers to make 150 decisions a game and have deep relationships with every pitcher and more than ever you cannot throw the defensive component away.”
Each of Sánchez, Ramos, and Alfaro lost playing time down the stretch and in the playoffs to better defensive catchers. Sánchez in particular faced a rather public “benching.” As the playoffs wore on and Sánchez struggled to light a fuse at the plate, the Yankees increasingly went with Kyle Higashioka as their primary receiver. Sánchez has another round of arbitration this winter after making a full-scale salary of $5MM in 2020, but the Yankees are likely to try and move him before the contract tender date of December 2nd, writes Sherman.
Given the state of the game amid the pandemic, rampant revenue losses make for a more uncertain winter than any in recent memory. The number of teams capable of luring J.T. may be limited if the price for entry is in the neighborhood suggested by Britton. James McCann and Mike Zunino represent the “best of the rest,” though the trade market could add a player like Sánchez to grease the wheels. Take another look at our free agency preview, provided here by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, but it’s certainly going to be interesting to see the length, duration, and location of Realmuto’s next deal.