J.T. Realmuto

TODAY: Realmuto is day-to-day for now, and will undergo an MRI, Girardi told Montemurro and other reporters.

SEPTEMBER 12: If an early exit from Spencer Howard wasn’t worrisome enough for the Phillies, they’re now sweating a potentially even more costly injury.  Catcher J.T. Realmuto felt “hip discomfort” while running the bases in the eighth inning of Saturday’s 12-6 win over the Marlins, manager Joe Girardi told The Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro and other reporters.

Realmuto was still able to field his position in the bottom half of the inning but was replaced by a pinch-hitter in the top of the ninth.  Realmuto will be re-examined tomorrow, and given the circumstances, it could be that the Phils were just being cautious in removing a star player in the final inning of a one-sided game.

Needless to say, of course, losing Realmuto for any stretch of time would be a huge blow to a Philadelphia team that is trying to lock down (at minimum) a playoff berth and still has hopes of catching the Braves for first place in the NL East.  Realmuto has been his usual outstanding self, entering tonight’s game with 11 home runs and a .274/.361/.541 slash line over his first 166 plate appearances.  Realmuto’s .903 OPS represents a career best, with the obvious caveat that a “career best” has an asterisk in this shortened season.

Andrew Knapp is the Phillies’ backup catcher, and none of the three backstops at their alternate training site (Henri Lartigue, Rafael Marchan, Logan O’Hoppe) have any MLB experience.  In the worst-case scenario of a Realmuto IL trip, it seems like the Phillies would be very likely to sign a veteran catcher to act as Knapp’s backup.

The Phillies aren’t actively engaged in extension talks with star catcher J.T. Realmuto, but he hasn’t foreclosed the possibility of a longer-term relationship. Team owner John Middleton echoed that sentiment in a recent interview with Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.

Generally, Middleton continued to express great admiration for Realmuto and optimism about contract talks. The strong underlying relationship provides “a great basis to begin a negotiation,” says Middleton, who also said he has no issues with Bryce Harper’s less-than-subtle campaign for a Realmuto deal.

That said, there were strong undercurrents of baseball’s new realities in Middleton’s comments. For one thing, the just-cited quote rather clearly implies that the team believes that negotiations will need to start fresh in the new COVID-19 world we all live in.

Then, there’s the double-edged sword of the sizable new deal between the Dodgers and superstar Mookie Betts. Middleton lauded the “ingenious deal” for its “creativity” and suggested it could indeed be utilized in the Phillies’ case. “There’s no reason why not,” he said.

But the Phils owner also made clear that the Betts contract was in “reality … much less” than its advertised $365MM price. Betts and the Dodgers agreed upon a heavily deferred contract structure to smooth over the coronavirus-driven economic turmoil.

Middleton’s top baseball ops employee, GM Matt Klentak, recently referred to that wide-ranging uncertainty in discussing the team’s interest in a Realmuto deal. And the team owner used precisely the same terminology, explaining that the Betts deal “reflects the reality of the economic uncertainty that we find ourselves in today.”

The overarching message here seems to be that the Phillies see a pathway to a deal, but that it assuredly won’t be the one the Realmuto camp has long proposed. “I don’t feel pressure to make a deal one way or another,” Middleton noted. “I think you have to make a good deal.”

It’ll be interesting to see whether there’s any realistic attempt to forge an agreement before the 2020 season wraps up. No doubt both sides will want to know first whether the campaign is even going to make it through to the postseason, as that’ll be a key revenue generator and major factor in projecting near-future earnings. Though both team and player clearly maintain interest in an ongoing relationship, striking a deal may well require an open-market test.

There hadn’t been much progress in extension talks between J.T. Realmuto and the Phillies as of two weeks ago, and the All-Star catcher’s latest update revealed that not much has changed.  “Nothing’s happened thus far,” Realmuto told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber and other reporters.  “To be honest, I’m focused on the season at this point.”

The latter comment could indicate that negotiations may have been somewhat tabled for the time being, given that most players try to avoid having contract talks stretch into the season in order to stay fully focused on baseball.  That logic could be particularly apt heading into the 2020 season, as players already have so many other concerns hanging over them given the unusual circumstances of the 60-game campaign.  The same could also be true on the front office side, as Phillies GM Matt Klentak said almost a month ago that he hadn’t yet spoken to Realmuto’s agents since the team was occupied with the many details involved in launching its Summer Camp.

The Phils still have exclusive negotiating rights with Realmuto until free agency officially opens (five days after the conclusion of the World Series), so there’s plenty of time for the two sides to work out a long-term agreement.  That said, stars of Realmuto’s caliber usually don’t get that close to the open market without indeed seeing what other teams have to offer, especially since Realmuto is now perhaps the biggest name available in the 2020-21 offseason now that Mookie Betts is under contract to the Dodgers through the 2032 season.

Speaking of that extension, Realmuto was pleased by Betts’ mega-deal, saying “it was good to see [Betts] get what he deserves.”  The impact on Realmuto and other top free agents also wasn’t lost on the catcher.

Past reports have suggested Realmuto and his camp is looking for a deal in the range of five years and $130MM, which would set a new average annual value ($26MM) record for a contract given to a catcher.  While a hefty sum, it is still far less what it would have taken for another team to sign Betts, assuming he could have found anything close to the $365MM over twelve years that he got from Los Angeles.  While signing a catcher to such a big deal obviously carries inherent risk, teams that were planning on taking a run at Betts this winter might now shift their attention to Realmuto, who presents a big upgrade on virtually every catching situation in baseball.

Extension talks between catcher J.T. Realmuto and the Phillies have not progressed much since the two sides held initial talks back in Spring Training, Realmuto himself said yesterday at Phillies Summer Camp (Twitter link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). The free-agent-to-be made clear that he’s not frustrated by the situation and voiced his fondness for the organization. Realmuto’s assessment of the situation aligns closely with recent comments from general manager Matt Klentak.

“Candidly, we’ve been kind of nose to the ground — intake screenings and getting people here — so I haven’t touched base with [Realmuto’s camp],” Klentak said as players prepared to report to Summer Camp. The GM added that the “landscape” has changed since initial talks in early March but stressed that he’d love to sign Realmuto to a long-term deal.

Of course, that’s not entirely up to Klentak and his front office. Realmuto is the top catcher on the upcoming offseason’s free-agent market and quite arguably the top overall catcher in the game. He’s been open in the past about advancing the market for future catchers and figures to come with a substantial asking price. He may not be able to approach the total guarantees in record contracts signed by Joe Mauer (eight years, $184MM) and Buster Posey (eight years, $159MM), as he’ll turn 30 before Opening Day 2021. However, a record annual value topping Mauer’s $23MM over a shorter term would line up with that goal. The Cardinals guaranteed Yadier Molina $20MM annually for his age-35 through age-37 seasons. All of that will factor into the asking price for Realmuto and his agents at CAA.

As is the case with all financial matters in baseball right now, that’s where the uncertainty lies. Phillies owner John Middleton hasn’t been shy about spending in the past — see: the infamous “stupid” money quote from 2018 — and has dished out a nine-figure contract in each of the past two offseasons (13 years, $330MM for Bryce Harper; five years, $118MM for Zack Wheeler). However, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports reported in early June that Middleton projected more than $100MM in losses in an email to employees. His willingness to continue aggressively spending despite those unprecedented and previously unforeseeable revenue losses is the key factor in the ongoing Realmuto saga.

Notably, the Phillies do have some substantial money coming off the books this winter. Jake Arrieta’s three-year, $75MM deal came with a two-year club option that won’t be exercised. David Robertson’s two-year, $23MM contract seemed like a quality value for the Phils at the time it was signed, but he underwent Tommy John surgery last summer. His $12MM option will very likely be bought out for $2MM. Didi Gregorius is playing on a one-year deal worth $14MM, and Jay Bruce will be off the books as well (though the Mariners are already covering much of Bruce’s salary).

In all, the Phillies have about $113MM on the 2020 books. Next year’s arbitration class doesn’t feature many big names aside from Rhys Hoskins and a bump for second-time-eligible Zach Eflin. Odubel Herrera’s contract will expire after the 2021 season, creating further flexibility.

All of that would be critical context under normal circumstances. To an extent, it likely still is. But it’s difficult to tell right now just what type of long-term dollars Middleton is willing to commit amid these revenue losses. That’s true of just about any owner in the league at the moment, really; since transactions resumed, we’ve yet to see Yasiel Puig land with a team and haven’t seen any dollars given out beyond the prorated $700K salary that reliever Jared Hughes agreed to in his deal with the Mets.

Realmuto said back in May that prior to the shutdown, he had gotten the sense in talks with the front office that negotiations “were about to start moving pretty quickly.” As we’re all aware, though, early March in many ways feels like a lifetime ago.