Angels Notes: Luxury Tax, Skaggs, Wilson, Calhoun, Heyward
With the Angels sitting only $22MM underneath the $189MM luxury tax threshold and holes to fill at second base, third base and in left field, owner Arte Moreno may have no choice but to incur luxury tax penalties for just the second time since purchasing the team in 2003, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times. When asked about the possibility, general manager Billy Eppler sounded open to the concept. “There are scenarios where you can see it being reasonable, and there are scenarios where you can see it not being worth it,” Eppler told DiGiovanna and other reporters. “Undetermined is probably the best way to put it,” added Eppler, who said scenarios which put the team over the luxury tax will be handled on a case-by-case basis. Eppler did admit that he’s had a wide number of trade and free-agent discussions in his search for an outfield upgrade, including names at the top of the market. While he declined to discuss specifics, players such as Jason Heyward, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes are all available in free agency, and the former two would give Anaheim a much-needed left-handed bat to help balance out the lineup.
A few more notes on the Halos…
- Tyler Skaggs recently threw a 90-pitch bullpen session in Arizona, Eppler also told DiGiovanna today. The GM said the plan for Skaggs, who missed the entire 2015 season recovering from Tommy John surgery that he underwent in late 2014, is to “let him roll” in Spring Training, indicating that he won’t have much in the way of limitations placed on him. Eppler added that C.J. Wilson is expected to be “unrestricted” in Spring Training as well. The 35-year-old Wilson underwent surgery to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow in August. DiGiovanna points out that Wilson could become a trade candidate in Spring Training if he can demonstrate his health on the mound.
- If the Halos do make a run at Heyward, fellow Gold Glove right fielder Kole Calhoun won’t complain one bit about moving across the diamond to left field, he told MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez. “If our team is going to get better, and that’s the way we’re going to get better, I’m all for it,” Calhoun said to Gonzalez when asked about a possible shift to left. Calhoun did go on to discuss the difficulties of such a switch, elaborating on the difficulty of essentially being forced to read swing paths and calculate routes in reverse. Gonzalez speculates that Heyward is the best fit among the potential free-agent outfielders for Anaheim, though he noted he’ll also be the most expensive of the bunch.
- It should also be noted that both DiGiovanna and Gonzalez note that Eppler expressed satisfaction with the Angels’ rotation and bullpen, so if further additions are made to the club, expect it to be on the position-player side of the equation. As Gonzalez writes, Eppler and the Angels will head into the Winter Meetings without a set target in mind. Rather, they’ll entertain a wide variety of scenarios to address multiple holes, but Eppler would only state that the goal “is to walk out the door with more information than you walked in with.”
- Though he notes that any club in baseball could use a star-caliber outfielder set to enter his age-26 season, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello lays out a case for his belief that the Angels need Heyward more than any other club in the Majors. The Halos’ left fielders were collectively the least-productive unit at the position in 2015, and they have at least three pitchers in their rotation — Jered Weaver, Andrew Heaney and Hector Santiago — who were among the top 25 in fly-ball percentage for starting pitchers, making Heyward’s glove all the more valuable to them. (Matt Shoemaker, too, was in the top 25 he notes, though Shoemaker isn’t necessarily guaranteed a rotation spot.) Also, with a poor farm system that was thinned out further with the acquisition of Andrelton Simmons, the Angels probably can’t add an elite talent by way of trade. It’s a well-reasoned case and well worth a full read.
Free Agent Notes: Utley, Victorino, Cubs, Rangers, Giants, Non-Tenders
Both the Angels and Dodgers have ongoing interest in free agent Chase Utley, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com tweets. A source tells Stark that the veteran would like to play in his native California, and it seems he’ll have options to do just that. Utley has been consistently linked to the Dodgers since they declined his $15MM option, and agent Joel Wolfe recently went on-record to state that five or six teams have expressed interest in Utley as a “mostly everyday infielder.” From my vantage point, the Angels have a clearer path to regular (or near-regular) at-bats for Utley. The Dodgers have multiple infield options, including Enrique Hernandez and Jose Peraza.
A few more notes on the free-agent market…
- Another former Phillies stalwart, Shane Victorino, is telling clubs that he intends to return to switch hitting in advance of the 2016 season, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. “I am finding out that not switch-hitting and not doing things from both sides of the plate had lots to do with the way my body has felt,” Victorino told Rosenthal. “Going back and doing things from both sides is such a good thing for my body now that I can physically do it again.”
- Within that same piece, Rosenthal notes that the Cubs are “busy” looking for a center fielder but are faced with relatively limited options. Dexter Fowler is a possibility for the Cubs but is currently exploring the open market. Signing Jason Heyward to play center field is an option, but the team would then need to address its rotation in a cost-effective manner by trading a young bat such as Jorge Soler or Javier Baez. If Soler ends up being the price to bolster the rotation, then the outfield would, of course, remain an issue.
- The Rangers still love Mike Napoli, tweets MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, but general manager Jon Daniels indicated today that his club may not have the “right spot” to fit Napoli into the mix next season. Sullivan’s Seattle counterpart, Greg Johns, however, tweets that Napoli could potentially be of interest to the Mariners, who have a need at first base after trading both Logan Morrison and Mark Trumbo this offseason. Napoli struggled for much of the season in Boston but was reinvigorated by a return to the Lone Star State, hitting .295/.396/.513 in 91 plate appearances with the Rangers. His cumulative .278/.391/.563 line against lefties last year indicates that Napoli, at the very least, is still a highly potent platoon option.
- Sticking with former Rangers, right-hander Colby Lewis tells Jeff Wilson of the Forth Worth Star-Telegram that Dr. Keith Meister gave him a “thumbs up” on his left knee (links to Twitter). Lewis has been working out and expects to be 100 percent for Spring Training. Many teams have contacted his agents at Octagon, says Lewis, though he remains hopeful that the Rangers will be interested after his latest knee exam. There’s some interest on both sides, according to Wilson.
- The Giants consider Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake fallback plans in the event that they’re unable to lure Zack Greinke away from L.A., tweets Rosenthal. John Lackey, too, is a consideration for San Francisco. There’s no word yet on a decision from Greinke, who is said to be choosing between the Dodgers and Giants.
- In the wake of yesterday’s tender deadline, MLB.com’s Zachary Finkelstein identified five non-tendered players that are still worthy of roster spots and can be potential bargains for clubs in 2016 (and, in some cases, beyond). Henderson Alvarez tops the list and is followed by Pedro Alvarez, Chris Carter, Tyler Flowers and Neftali Feliz. Alvarez’s youth and track record, the power of Alvarez and Carter, the pitch-framing abilities of Flowers and still-strong velocity plus a nice finish for Feliz give some elements of value to each, he writes.
Olney’s Latest: Price, Greinke, Carrasco, Shark, Cubs, Heyward
ESPN’s Buster Olney begins his latest Insider-only blog post by offering his take on David Price‘s deal with the Red Sox. Olney notes that while the blame for Boston’s failure to retain Jon Lester as its ace lies on owner John Henry and not former GM Ben Cherington, Henry deserves credit for recognizing the mistake and going to the measures necessary to bolster his rotation. Rival evaluators have wondered to Olney how Price will adapt to losing his velocity as he ages, but for the short-term, Price gives Boston exactly what it needed — an ace to front the rotation and shift names like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and the injury-prone Clay Buchholz down the rotation.
Some more highlights from Olney’s column…
- Price’s signing creates a perfect storm for Zack Greinke, who now stands alone as the top free agent starter on the market with a pair of division rivals — the Giants and Dodgers — bidding against one another to secure his services. One person close to the situation suggested to Olney that Greinke could land a five-year deal worth $165MM (an average annual value of $33MM), which meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that said Greinke could take a five-year deal if it meant a sizable increase over Price’s AAV.
- The Indians have been listening to offers on their young starters, but the price tags for pitchers like Price and Greinke have underscored the value of controllable, young arms like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, leading to a perhaps exorbitant asking price. For instance, the Indians asked the Giants for a package that included both Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco in recent talks, according to Olney. While some Giants fans may recoil at the notion, Olney writes that with pitchers such as J.A. Happ commanding $36MM over three years, Carrasco’s four-year, $22MM contract and two club options come with incredibly high value. Carrasco talks between the two sides are dead at this point, he adds.
- The Cubs have been positioning themselves for a run at Jeff Samardzija since before Price made his final decision. The Giants are among the other clubs with interest in Samardzija, according to Olney, who wonders if the teams that missed out on both Price and (eventually) Greinke will then check in with Johnny Cueto as an alternative.
- The Cardinals have at least spoken to Greinke, but there’s no indication that they’re prepared to compete with the Dodgers and Giants for his services, making it seem unlikely that they’ll emerge as a late dark-horse candidate in his market.
- The Cubs weren’t comfortable with the notion of roughly $55MM per season for a pair of pitchers each season for the foreseeable future, referring to a potential combo of Price and Lester. Olney calls a swap of Jorge Soler and Braves right-hander Shelby Miller a potential plan B for Chicago, which would then free up the club to make a run at Jason Heyward.
Free Agent Notes: Davis, Heyward, Zobrist, Asdrubal, Young, Cotts
Slugger Chris Davis is not the “top priority” for Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. A source tells Crasnick that St. Louis’s reported interest in the free agent is “overblown.” Of course, it remains tricky to find a perfect fit for the slugger, whose market still seems to be developing. From an analytical perspective, though, he appears to be a fairly solid match with the Cards. Indeed, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes picked the former Oriole to land there.
Here’s the latest from the rest of the free agent market:
- Top free agent outfielder Jason Heyward looks more like a “secondary option” for the Cubs, Buster Olney of ESPN.com tweets. In other words, Chicago is pursuing other opportunities, but could pivot to chase Heyward if those other possibilities don’t come to fruition.
- The Mets‘ interest in Ben Zobrist is real, but that doesn’t mean the team will promise him four years to get a deal done, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports. New York’s pursuit of Zobrist is part of a flexible offseason plan, writes Rubin, in which various types of additions could be considered at the second base position — and elsewhere — as the market dictates.
- Three teams are “in the mix” for free agent middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. He’s expected to ink a deal “within the next week or so,” per Cotillo, which would seem to suggest that the veteran could find his next team by the time the Winter Meetings are wrapped up.
- The Royals have had “encouraging talks” with free agent righty Chris Young about a return, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports. Both the 36-year-old and the team have expressed interest in a continued relationship, though it remains to be seen whether other clubs will make a push for his services — and, if so, whether Kansas City will be willing and able to meet or beat the market.
- Similarly, the Twins have real interest in bringing back lefty reliever Neal Cotts, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Minnesota added Cotts in an August waiver trade. Fellow free agent southpaw Brian Duensing, meanwhile, tells Berardino that he hasn’t heard anything yet from the only professional organization he’s ever played for.
Cubs Notes: Samardzija, Zobrist, Leake, Lackey
ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers has penned a column on the status of the Cubs’ targets in free agency at present. To this point, the team hasn’t given any indication that a pursuit of either Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto is a possibility, leaving David Price as the sole top-tier arm that the Cubs could be expected to pursue, Rogers writes. The Cubs’ Plan B in terms of free-agent pitchers focuses on Jeff Samardzija at this point, according to Rogers, and sources tell him that the team is also in the mix for Ben Zobrist. Signing Zobrist would all but ensure a trade of Starlin Castro, but of course, there is widespread interest in Zobrist, who is one of the most popular free agents on this year’s market. Rogers lists Jason Heyward as a perhaps speculative target but notes that president Theo Epstein has pointed out in the past how young the game is getting, and Heyward, 26, would indeed fit into the Cubs’ youth movement in terms of position players. I’d imagine that signing Heyward would create further trade speculation surrounding Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber, though Rogers doesn’t indicate that Heyward is a top target of the Cubs as things presently stand, so much of that speculation would be putting the cart before the horse.
Here are a few more notes pertaining to the Cubs…
- CSN Chicago’s David Kaplan hears that the Cubs are active on many fronts at this point but still doesn’t believe that the Cubs will be significant players for Price or Greinke (links to Twitter). Kaplan hears that the Cubs are currently active on the trade market and are also in touch with the representatives for Samardzija, Mike Leake and John Lackey. Unsurprisingly, the Cubs’ highly touted farm system has many names that are in high demand as the team explores the trade market for starting pitching. Any of Samardzija, Leake or Lackey would give the Cubs a strong third starter to slot behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the rotation.
- Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes that the difference between this winter and last offseason for the Cubs is that Epstein & Co. can now sell prospective free agents on the allure of joining a contender rather than preaching patience and trust that the rebuild will deliver a winning club. Epstein also explained to Sullivan a number of non-monetary incentives that the Cubs pitch to players, including the team’s new clubhouse and the programs the Cubs have set up for the families of players to enjoy upon relocating to Chicago. “Just little things behind the scenes we do that really impact the lives for our players’ families they may not be aware of,” said Epstein. Of course, as Sullivan notes, those factors alone probably won’t outweigh the difference between tens of millions of dollars, but they could help tip the scales in Chicago’s favor should they make a similar offer to another club for a free agent target.
- Epstein noted today that the club’s early-offseason moves haven’t been without their importance, as Rogers reports. “Depth is underrated, especially in the winter,” said Hoyer. “Everyone will write out lineups in the offseason and they don’t focus on bench, they don’t focus on the bullpen, they don’t focus on guys in Triple-A that are going up and down. Over the course of six months, those are the little moves that make a huge difference.” But Hoyer made clear that more impactful transactions are coming in the near term, with the organization prepared to adapt as the market explodes. “You have to stay nimble and know things will come at you that you might not have expected,” he said. “Some team will throw an idea at us that we never thought about.”
Rosenthal On Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cueto, Ross
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new notes column that contains quite a few Hot Stove related items. Some highlights from his latest piece…
- There’s a belief in the industry that the Cardinals‘ new television deal — which begins in 2018, when it will net the team $50MM and continue to rise to about $86MM, per Forbes — could allow the team to sign two premium free agents. Rosenthal adds, though, that the Cardinals could nonetheless be uncomfortable making the top bid for David Price or Jason Heyward and might be “reluctant” to commit the type of dollars Chris Davis will command.
- Meanwhile, the Cubs probably only have the financial firepower to add about $20MM to their annual payroll this winter. Sources tell Rosenthal that the club’s payroll will be in the $130-140MM range for the foreseeable future. Based on the numbers at Cot’s Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, the Cubs are a bit over $110MM in 2016 when including league-minimum players. That leaves some wiggle room for two adds, but probably not if one of those players is Price or Zack Greinke. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could add a young pitcher via trade, possibly for Jorge Soler. That wouldn’t impact payroll much in the near-term and would free the club to pursue Heyward or Alex Gordon to reduce the team’s overall strikeout rate (and improve the outfield defense).
- The Dodgers have at least discussed the possibility of signing both Greinke and Price internally, according to Rosenthal, but they’re unlikely to go that route. Even the Dodgers and their seemingly limitless budget aren’t keen on the notion of paying three starters in the vicinity of $30MM annually, and they already have one such pitcher in Clayton Kershaw.
- That J.A. Happ landed a $36MM total from the Blue Jays could serve to increase the leverage that teams like the Indians and Rays have in talks for their starting pitchers. One exec told Rosenthal that “mediocre pitching” now costs a minimum of $30MM total. While that’s true enough, I don’t know that the Happ signing necessarily brought that realization about. We’ve seen players like Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and Ricky Nolasco clear the $30MM barrier in recent seasons, after all, and Happ’s final push in Pittsburgh shows he’s at least capable of pitching at a high level if those adjustments can be sustained.
- The D-Backs‘ interest in Johnny Cueto stems, in part, from the fact that he’s not tied to draft pick compensation. Arizona selects 13th overall next season and values that pick, Rosenthal writes. The team is reluctant to part with one of the top overall unprotected picks and probably isn’t likely to part with it for a second-tier starter (e.g. Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen). Arizona has already been tied to both Mike Leake and Kenta Maeda, either of whom could bolster the rotation without harming next year’s draft.
- The Padres are still receiving plenty of interest in right-hander Tyson Ross but are only willing to move him for a “monster package,” as Rosenthal terms it. Ross is controlled for two more seasons, and MLBTR projects him to earn $10MM in 2016.
- Prior to Colby Rasmus accepting their qualifying offer, the Astros considered making a run at Brett Gardner or a similar type of player to fill the club’s leadoff slot, per Rosenthal. Now, however, they’ll likely use Jose Altuve there as the primary option again in 2016.
The Best Suitors For Jason Heyward?
Free agency has progressed slowly this winter. Some of the biggest signings to date have been starting pitchers with late-season breakouts (Rich Hill, J.A. Happ). The markets for several of the flashiest names available have yet to develop, and that’s especially true of Jason Heyward.
The Angels have been mentioned once on these pages as a possible match. Earlier this week, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports said the Angels “aren’t ruling out a pursuit.” So that’s maybe, possibly one public suitor.
Every other Heyward rumor relates to his former Cardinals. While he fits their playing style to a T, Heyward isn’t exactly needed. The St. Louis roster features veterans Matt Holliday and Brandon Moss. Randal Grichuk is an exciting young center fielder with big power and plus defense. Stephen Piscotty made a successful late season debut. Some combination of Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay, and Tommy Pham can fill in the cracks.
Sure, Heyward is an improvement over some of those options, but is his production enough to justify the $200MM investment predicted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes? I don’t think so. The team does have a need in the rotation with Lance Lynn out for the season and top prospect Alex Reyes suspended 50 games for marijuana use. It might be smart to use monetary resources on pitching.
In his free agent profile, Jeff Todd agreed with Dierkes 10-year, $200MM valuation, saying “It’s hard to put Heyward in the same production bracket as Robinson Cano (ten years, $240MM), and you could argue that he’s not as valuable a free agent as Prince Fielder (nine years, $214MM), depending upon how one values defense and baserunning.” Then again, you can also argue that Heyward, 26, offers more future value than Cano or Fielder did at the time of their signings. When they inked their respective deals, Cano was entering his age 31 season while Fielder was set to turn 28.
It used to be that $200MM really limited a player’s market to just a few teams. In today’s cash rich environment, any team can compete for a top free agent. While it wasn’t a free agent signing, the always penurious Marlins actually own the richest contract in major league history (Giancarlo Stanton). Heyward, therefore, is a relatively affordable, young asset. Clearly, his market won’t be constrained to a team that doesn’t need him and another that isn’t “ruling out a pursuit.”
MLB.com’s Dan O’Dowd offers two more alternatives – the Dodgers and Orioles. His justifications? The Dodgers have the cash, and Heyward would add athleticism over incumbent Andre Ethier. With the Orioles, a run at Heyward would likely depend upon the club falling short on re-signing Chris Davis. O’Dowd also likes how Heyward would fit into the Angels lineup.
Let’s explore some other possible fits for Heyward.
The Yankees are always a safe bet to be involved with a player like Heyward. They’re said to be shopping Brett Gardner, possibly to make room for a Heyward pursuit. His left-handed bat and athleticism in the outfield would play awfully well at Yankee Stadium.
New York’s rivals, the Red Sox, are a dark horse candidate. The club is much more fixated on pitching, and they’re currently rich in outfielders. If their pursuit of David Price goes sideways, Boston could try to use some of their outfield depth to acquire star pitching. The would open a role for Heyward.
After attempting to contend in 2015, it’s hard to gauge the White Sox plans. They’ll try again to build around Chris Sale and Jose Abreu, but will they commit more resources to the effort? Across town, the Cubs could benefit from an OBP oriented veteran like Heyward to help support the various young phenoms. They’re supposedly more focused on pitching.
The Phillies could technically afford to sign Heyward. Their only payroll commitment beyond 2017 is a $2MM buyout on Matt Harrison. With their ability to financially bully the other NL East clubs, I expect Philadelphia to rebound quickly from their current nightmare. But this offseason might be one too soon for a forward thinking free agent signing of this magnitude. And it might be difficult to convince Heyward to ink with a rebuilding club.
The Mariners and Giants are the other two clubs I could foresee entering the bidding. Seattle is keen to become more athletic under new GM Jerry Dipoto. After signing Cano and Nelson Cruz in recent offseasons, I’m not sure they could stomach the price tag.
San Francisco is a rich market club that likes to play quietly in free agency. The team has plenty of outfielders, but only Hunter Pence stands out as name brand talent.
So where do you think Heyward will land? Is it one of these teams or somebody completely off the radar?
Which Team Will Sign Jason Heyward?
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Cardinals 22% (4,305)
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Angels 17% (3,374)
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Yankees 16% (3,142)
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Cubs 8% (1,618)
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Giants 7% (1,474)
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Dodgers 6% (1,186)
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Other 6% (1,185)
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Mariners 5% (1,021)
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Red Sox 3% (692)
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Orioles 3% (681)
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Phillies 3% (607)
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White Sox 3% (548)
Total votes: 19,833
AL Notes: Iannetta, Gardner, Heyward, Orioles, Parra
The Mariners signed Chris Iannetta to be the team’s primary backstop, GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters, including Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (story link). Dipoto said that he sees Iannetta as a likely candidate to return to his prior levels of offensive performance. Meanwhile, the new GM explained that incumbent catcher Mike Zunino will have opportunities to earn time in a part-time role. “Mike comes in with an opportunity to win playing time,” Dipoto said. “A primary catcher is different from what I would consider an everyday player. There is no catcher who is going to go out and catch 162 games. Whether it be a time-share or a backup catcher, Mike is going to be in position to win some of that playing time. He’s still a young guy, and we need to get him back on track.”
Here’s more from the American League:
- The Angels and Yankees make for a good match on outfielder Brett Gardner, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times opines (Twitter links). Though Los Angeles would rather add a slugger in left, the team also needs an OBP threat at the top of the lineup and has the asset (starting pitching) that the Yanks are after. It probably doesn’t hurt that new Halos GM Billy Eppler just came over from New York. Of course, it remains to be see what kind of pitching asset New York GM Brian Cashman hopes to find, and what kind of value Eppler places on Gardner.
- Meanwhile, the Angels could still dabble at the top of the free agent market, says Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, who writes that the Halos “aren’t ruling out a pursuit” of Jason Heyward. That match makes sense on paper, of course, given the need and the club’s large budget. Of course, as MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez explained to me on last week’s MLBTR Podcast, the club’s ability to land a player of that magnitude will depend on the payroll levels approved by owner Arte Moreno.
- With so many needs, the Orioles are giving serious consideration to utilizing Trey Mancini at first base next year (assuming that Chris Davis departs in free agency), ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes (links to Twitter). The 23-year-old had a huge year at the High-A and Double-A levels last year. Though he feasted on opposing southpaws, he was quite good against right-handed pitching as well. Of course, leaping into the majors could be a big ask. But as Crasnick notes, there are limits to the teams other options. It lacks top-level system depth to trade from and is understandably uninterested in swapping young, MLB-level players such as Kevin Gausman and Jonathan Schoop, he says.
- The Orioles have interest in a new deal with free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, Crasnick also tweets. But Baltimore isn’t looking to go past two years with Parra, who was a trade deadline acquisition. From my perspective, that stance makes a reunion unlikely.
2015 Qualifying Offer Decisions
The deadline or players to accept or reject their one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers was today at 5pm ET. We already know that Colby Rasmus will become the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer, and Marco Estrada reached a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. Brett Anderson also accepted his qualifying offer from the Dodgers.
Here are the updates on the rest of the 20 players that received qualifying offers one week ago today…
- Ian Desmond will reject the Nationals‘ offer, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. He’ll be joined on the open market by Jordan Zimmermann, who did the same, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.
- While Brett Anderson will be returning on a one-year deal, Howie Kendrick and Zack Greinke have rejected their qualifying offers from the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links),
- It’s an obvious one, but Alex Gordon will hit the open market rather than taking a one-year deal from the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Likewise, Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy of the Padres will participate in the open market his fall (per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, on Twitter) and Dexter Fowler has turned down his offer from the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan of 670thescore.com tweets.
- The Cardinals will stand to pick up draft choices if Jason Heyward and John Lackey sign elsewhere, as they too have rejected the offer, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
- Daniel Murphy and Jeff Samardzija have declined their offers, per reports from Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter) and Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (also via Twitter).
- Gallardo has declined his QO, Stevenson now tweets.
- As expected, Hisashi Iwakuma has turned down the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mariners, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.
Earlier Updates
- Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram hears differently on Gallardo, reporting that he’s still deciding whether or not to accept (links to Twitter). Gallardo’s camp has spoken to multiple other clubs about a deal, but the righty is still mulling a return to his hometown team.
- Yovani Gallardo will decline the Rangers‘ qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gallardo never seemed likely to accept the deal, though there may have been a bit of temptation given the fact that Gallardo is a Fort Worth native. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that he spoke to Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, and was told that he’s yet to officially inform the Rangers one way or the other (Twitter link).
Those who are unfamiliar with the process can refer to MLBTR’s explanation of the qualifying offer system for full details.
Crasnick On Price, Greinke, Heyward, Upton, Murphy, Starlin
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick conducted his annual Hot Stove survey, polling a number of front-office executives and scouts about some of the top names available both in free agency and on the trade market. Crasnick asked respondents to weigh in on David Price vs. Zack Greinke; Jason Heyward vs. Justin Upton; Chris Davis vs. Yoenis Cespedes; which of Colby Rasmus or Daniel Murphy would be able to sustain some of his postseason success; which of Jeff Samardzija or Ian Desmond is a better rebound candidate; which of Javier Baez or Starlin Castro is more likely to be traded; and which of Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist or Johnny Cueto is likeliest to return to the Royals. Crasnick has full voting and plenty of quotes from execs/scouts for those who wish to read the piece in its entirety, but here are some particularly interesting highlights…
- More respondents felt comfortable giving a nine-figure deal to Greinke than to Price, though the expectation is still that Price’s deal will top Greinke’s due to age. Crasnick quotes a pair of scouts that rave about Greinke’s delivery and how he can age well due to his intelligence and lack of reliance on pure velocity. One NL scout likened Greinke to Greg Maddux.
- Heyward won the voting over Upton when asked which would perform better over the life of his next contract, though there was a reasonably even split, and many scouts quoted by Crasnick are concerned with Heyward’s reliance on defensive value and what one described to be a high-maintenance swing.
- Murphy won the voting over Rasmus in their question, and one American League special assistant offered an interesting take to Crasnick: “If I was a team and I had a market for Murphy, I’d want him playing third base. I don’t like him at second. The ball finds him, like it did in the World Series. He got exposed there.” Murphy does have experience at third base, and we’ve mentioned him as a possible option for teams in need of help at the hot corner here at MLBTR, as the free-agent market presents little beyond Murphy and David Freese.
- More respondents felt that Castro is likelier to be traded than Baez, even though as one scout put it, Baez would “fetch more of a haul.” An AL GM offered an interesting take on Castro’s contract, however, telling Crasnick: “Castro showed enough at two positions this year that his contract will seem like a fair deal once the free-agent class this year gets paid.” Castro, who is owed about $38MM over the next four seasons, certainly isn’t cheap and isn’t without his risks. He was a replacement-level player in 2013 and played that way for much of the 2015 season before his bat came to life late in the season following a switch to second base. Of course, Castro also sported an unsustainable .388 BABIP in September and October, which somewhat inflated his production.
- Cespedes and Samardzija narrowly won the voting on their respective question, while Gordon was far and away the most popular answer in the Royals realm.