Jason Heyward

Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2015 at 2:46pm CDT

The deadline for players to extend qualifying offers to their free agents is 5pm ET today. The value of this year’s qualifying offer — which is equated by taking the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players — is $15.8MM. Teams can extend the QO to free agents who spent the entire year with that club (i.e. were not midseason signings/trade acquisitions), giving the player one week to accept or decline the deal. Should the player accept — and to this point, no one has ever accepted a QO — he is immediately under contract for the following season at that $15.8MM salary and cannot be traded without his consent until the following June. If a player rejects and signs with a new club, his former team is awarded a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round the following year. Any team that signs a player that has rejected a QO must forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The top 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected under the collective bargaining agreement.) Those wishing to drill down deeper into the specifics of the qualifying offer can check out MLBTR’s full explanation of the qualifying offer system.

The previous one-year record for number of player to receive a QO is 13, but with a deep crop of free-agent talent this offseason, a new record will absolutely be set. I see as many as 22 realistic QO candidates in this year’s free agent class, though some of those are admittedly borderline calls whose teams may decide not to make the risk. To this point, the Royals have already made the obvious decision to extend a QO to Alex Gordon (as they announced yesterday). That was the lone formal announcement prior to Friday.

All that said, here’s the list of formal qualifying offers to be extended (we’ll update accordingly throughout the day)…

The Orioles announced that they’ve issued qualifying offers to first baseman Chris Davis, lefty Wei-Yin Chen, and catcher Matt Wieters. Though reports at times questioned whether Baltimore would extend the $15.8MM offer to Wieters, it always seemed a near-lock that that the team would do so (with expectations that he’ll reject it and look for multiple years in free agency).
The White Sox have officially announced their qualifying offer to Jeff Samardzija, which was essentially a foregone conclusion. It’s been known that Samardzija will receive a qualifying offer and widely reported that he will reject said offer for quite some time.

Earlier Updates

Hisashi Iwakuma (Mariners), Dexter Fowler (Cubs) and Daniel Murphy (Mets) will all receive qualifying offers, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Each of the moves was widely expected, although Heyman also hears that the Padres have made up their mind and will make a qualifying offer to Ian Kennedy. That situation was a bit more up in the air, though Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune said two nights ago that it was a “likely” outcome, and we at MLBTR have voiced the belief that the Padres should and would make the QO on multiple occasions.
The Blue Jays have now announced that Marco Estrada will receive a qualifying offer on the strength of his impressive 2015 regular season and playoff performance. (A full breakdown of Estrada’s qualifying offer can be read here.)
The Cardinals announced that they have extended the qualifying offer to both Jason Heyward and John Lackey. Each decision was widely anticipated, as they 26-year-old Heyward is poised to cash in on an enormous contract due to his youth, defensive prowess and solid contributions at the plate and on the bases. Lackey recently turned 37, but he’s completely rejuvenated his career over the past three seasons and is well-positioned to land a sizable multi-year deal this winter even with draft pick compensation attached to his name
As noted above, the Royals announced their qualifying offer to Alex Gordon on Thursday afternoon.

Free Agent Profile: Jason Heyward

By Jeff Todd | October 30, 2015 at 6:10pm CDT

Jason Heyward hasn’t maintained the power output that many once predicted, but he’ll hit the market at a very young age while playing at quite a high level and should be paid accordingly.

Strengths/Pros

There’s a lot to like about Heyward’s all-around game, as he rates as a positive in essentially every area. His tools are undeniable, and he’s turned them into tangible production in most regards.

Heyward’s best single attribute might be his glove. Ultimate Zone and Defensive Runs Saved ledgers are filled with big numbers, as he’s consistently rated as an outstanding right fielder. Since he debuted in 2010, Heyward has easily paced all outfielders in accumulated UZR (Alex Gordon’s 68.3 UZR is second to Heyward’s 96.2). Though his arm is more solid/good than great, he excels in the range department and isn’t prone to mistakes. Given his age and remarkable consistency, this is about as bankable a skill as one could hope to find.

Another often-underappreciated source of value is the basepaths, and Heyward excels there, too. He’s a fairly consistent source of twenty stolen bases, and more importantly, draws excellent overall marks. Indeed, Heyward ranked fifth in all of baseball in 2015 in Fangraphs’ BsR metric (the baserunning component of fWAR) and sits in the top thirty since his rookie year.

Heyward isn’t quite as outstanding with the bat — if he was, we’d be looking at Mike Trout’s theoretical free agent case — but he’s hardly a liability. He’s reached base at a solid .353 clip and walked at a strong 10.8% rate for his career. Though Heyward’s power has not returned to its peak 2012 levels (27 home runs, .210 ISO, .479 SLG), he’s significantly cut back on the strikeouts since and now sits at about a 15% K rate, well below the league average.

Having only just turned 26, it’s not at all out of the question that Heyward could still tap into some pop, particularly since he’s shown the ability to do so at the major league level. His HR/FB rate did land at 12.0%, near his historical norm, after it fell to 6.5% in 2014.

It’s also worth noting that Heyward has also continued to improve in the plate discipline department over the years, showing that he’s continuing to hone his craft. His chase rate and overall swing percentage have dropped every year since 2012, and his contact numbers have risen: in his most recent campaign, he posted a 93.8% in-zone contact rate.

By measure of wRC+, Heyward has been 18% better than the league-average batter over his career and was slightly north of that in 2015, when he slashed .293/.359/.439. He’s been a consistently above-average performer at the plate, apart from a fairly mild sophomore slump, and also shown the ability to hit the ball to all fields. All said, there’s a lot to like about Heyward at the plate.

But the biggest reason that Heyward’s free agent guarantee will likely place at or near the very top of the market is his age. Though he’s already racked up six full years of MLB service, Heyward won’t turn 27 until next August, making him a rare free agent who still could have much of his prime ahead of him. For some context, consider that Alex Gordon — another top free agent corner outfielder this year — had his breakout 2011 campaign in his age-27 season. Gordon, one of Heyward’s chief competitors this winter, is a full five years older.

The total package makes Heyward one of the game’s best overall players. He hasn’t put up a single huge season, really, but consistently registers excellent campaigns. Somewhat quietly, he’s accumulated more fWAR since 2010 than any outfielder not named Trout, McCutchen, or Bautista. (He sits 11th overall among position players.)

That’s due in part, also, to his solid record of durability. Heyward has averaged 139 games and 572 plate appearances per year — good, but not great — but has mostly missed time due to bad luck (e.g., appendectomy, broken jaw).

Weaknesses/Cons

There’s really no broad area in which Heyward fares particularly poorly, but there are certainly some rather significant factors that hold down his value.

The power conundrum certainly rates at the top of the list. As discussed above, it is a huge question for him. His established 27-homer upside remains tantalizing. Were he a reliable source of 25 home runs, his earning power would be astronomical. But, that’s not how things have shaken out in recent seasons. Heyward’s isolated power hasn’t exceeded .150 in either of the last two years, and he hasn’t popped more than 14 long balls since his 2012 campaign.

As a result, some teams looking at the idea of committing huge money over a lengthy term will certainly feel some uncertainty. If you believe that Heyward has settled in as a 12-to-15 annual home run level of power, then any fall-off in his speed and defense could leave him as an even less exciting player than he already is. Two fairly recent, seven-year free agent deals with non-power-hitting, average-OBP outfielders — Jacoby Ellsbury ($153MM) and Carl Crawford ($142MM) — have fallen flat.

We discussed Heyward’s increasing contact tendencies above, and that does have some benefits (e.g., his improving strikeout numbers). But the list of elite contact makers is also riddled with slap hitters, and there are some concerns in Heyward’s batted-ball profile. Last year, his groundball/flyball ratio was way out of whack when compared to career norms. After consistently hitting in the range of 45% groundballs against 35% flyballs annually, Heyward saw his groundball rate shoot up to 57.2% while his flies plummeted to 23.5%. That could be a one-year blip, but it’s not the most encouraging sign to see so many balls hitting the ground.

Likewise, Heyward has traditionally struggled against left-handed pitching. He increased his output to about league-average in 2015, but he’s running a .230/.309/.351 batting line for his career. When weighing a decade-long commitment (or thereabouts), it’d probably be preferable not to be wondering whether and how soon you’ll need to find a platoon mate.

Personal

Heyward was born in New Jersey but grew up in Georgia and excelled there as a high school ballplayer. He wears the number 22 to honor the memory of his former high school teammate, Andrew Wilmot.

As Peter Gammons explored in an interesting 2010 piece, Heyward is the product of a well-educated and thoughtful family. Even as his son participated in competitive youth baseball, Heyward’s dedicated father made sure the focus remained on having fun. Even as he was just entering the big leagues, Heyward drew rave reviews from teammates, coaches, and scouts for his hard work, and he’s only enhanced that reputation since.

“I love to play. I love to play hard,” Heyward himself explained. “I try to play the right way. I was brought up by parents who taught me to treat everyone with respect, to treat them the way I want to be treated.”

Market

Heyward is a special free agent because of his age and consistent level of production. That his annual earning power isn’t exceptional could keep more teams in the hunt than might otherwise be the case, and of course some will see an opportunity to buy up still-undervalued skills.

It’s hard to completely rule out any large market clubs, because other roster moves could always be made to free space for this kind of opportunity. Organizations such as the Angels, Tigers, Giants, and Mariners have the means and, quite possibly, the need for Heyward. The Cardinals don’t generally chase top-of-the-market free agents, but just had him for a year and gave Matt Holliday big money under similar circumstances. There’d be a nice fit with the White Sox, Orioles, Astros, Royals, and Padres, if they’re willing to spend beyond their typical levels. Meanwhile, big spenders such as the Yankees — but also, theoretically, including the Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers, and Nationals — could make room for Heyward if they feel the opportunity is just too good to pass up.

Expected Contract

There’s a range of possibilities here, as always, but I’m guessing Heyward will command a longer deal at a slightly lesser average annual value. Ellsbury’s deal came at just under $22MM in AAV, and even Crawford cracked $20MM annually (five years ago). It’s hard to put Heyward in the same production bracket as Robinson Cano (ten years, $240MM), and you could argue that he’s not as valuable a free agent as was Prince Fielder (nine years, $214MM), depending upon how one values defense and baserunning. But those signings show that super-length contracts at still-significant AAVs can be had.

It’s important to note, also, that Heyward looks like a prime candidate to negotiate an opt-out clause into his deal. Given his age, he’d probably see value in having the right to return to free agency after a reasonable stretch. (After all, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams points out, even five years from now Heyward will still be younger than Gordon is as he hits the market this winter.) And Heyward is represented by Excel Sports Management’s Casey Close, who has guided clients such as Zack Greinke and Masahiro Tanaka to opt-out arrangements.

My prediction: ten years, $200MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Heyward, Reds, Desmond

By charliewilmoth | October 17, 2015 at 11:03am CDT

The Cardinals need to re-sign impending free agent Jason Heyward, Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Heyward’s traditional stats don’t jump off the page, but he makes a difference with his fielding, throwing and baserunning, says Hochman, who also points to Heyward’s age and clubhouse presence. The Cardinals aren’t showing their hand yet, but they believe they have enough talent that they won’t let the situation with Heyward slow them down. “[H]istorically we’ve had that issue come up where are you held prisoner until you get something accomplished. The good news for us is I don’t think that’s the case here,” says GM John Mozeliak. “I think we have enough internal flexibility where we can still look to do other things and still accomplish what we need to do.” In a recent MLBTR Newsletter, Tim Dierkes examined 25 teams as potential suitors for Heyward, concluding that the teams most likely to sign him were the Yankees, Astros, Angels and Mariners along with the Cardinals. Here’s more from the National League.

The Reds have a long road ahead as they attempt to catch up with the Cardinals, Cubs and Pirates, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The Reds need help offensively and won’t have much money with which to acquire it this offseason. “We have really, really stiff competition in our division,” says Joey Votto. “We can’t go in with a half effort because of how good those three teams are. … They’re good it seems at every aspect of the game. We have to exceed them.” Earlier this week, I looked for the Reds’ path forward as part of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series.
After a down season in 2015, it looks highly unlikely shortstop Ian Desmond will re-sign with the Nationals, Chase Hughes of Nats Insider writes. The Nats won’t want to add another risky long-term contract, given that they already have the Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman deals on the books. And Trea Turner’s emergence gives them a potential replacement for Desmond at shortstop.
North Carolina State’s 2011 recruiting class has already produced Turner and Carlos Rodon, and four other players from that class were also drafted, as Baseball America’s Jim Shonerd notes. That kind of haul is noteworthy not only for the talent involved, but because NC State got all those players in the last year before the new CBA limited the abilities of teams to spend heavily on late-round draft picks. The Wolfpack had, for example, also recruited righties Jake Junis (who ended up signing with the Royals for $675K) and Jason Creasy (who signed with the Pirates for $250K).

Cardinals Notes: Heyward, Martinez, Moss, Bourjos, Matheny, Coaches

By Steve Adams | October 15, 2015 at 6:09pm CDT

The Cardinals’ 2015 season came to an end this week after the team fell to the division-rival Cubs in Game 4 of the NLDS at Wrigley Field. That means that club’s immediate focus now becomes the offseason, and the chief question with which St. Louis figures to be faced is whether or not the team can re-sign Jason Heyward. Whether or note Heyward remains in St. Louis is up for debate, but GM John Mozeliak made clear today that the Cards want to bring Heyward back into the fold on a long-term deal, writes MLB.com’s Jen Langosch. Heyward “was a tremendous fit on this club [and] did exactly what we wanted him to do,” said Mozeliak, who added that the team’s wait for a Heyward decision in free agency won’t handcuff its other offseason pursuits.

A few more notes on the Cards as they gear up for the winter…

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch also has a breakdown of issues discussed by Mozeliak when talking to the media today. The GM gave good news when it comes to young right-hander Carlos Martinez, revealing that there are no plans for the 24-year-old to undergo surgery to repair his ailing shoulder. Rather, he’ll spend the offseason at the team’s spring complex in Jupiter, Fla. and go through what Goold terms a “more regimented” offseason under the guidance of the club’s training staff.
Also from Goold, the Cardinals have interest in bringing Brandon Moss back for at least a bench role. “Obviously Moss was someone we acquired because we like his power potential and we like his flexibility he gives you being able to play outfield or first,” said Mozeliak. “He’ll have a spot at some point.” The question facing the Cardinals when it comes to Moss, I’d imagine, is whether they can find a way to bring him back at a cheaper price. Moss earned $6.5MM in 2015 and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.9MM in 2016. That seems too expensive for a part-time player with limited defensive upside.
Mozeliak was more vague when it came to the team’s interest in retaining outfielder Peter Bourjos. Acquired from the Angels alongside Randal Grichuk in the 2013-14 offseason, Bourjos has received inconsistent playing time and undergone hip surgery since his acquisition, either of which may have contributed to diminished performance. “As far as Peter goes, I don’t think it ever worked to the point where we were hopeful of,” Mozeliak explained. “That doesn’t mean we’re at the point to give up either. We’ll reassess and look at what our opportunities look like over the next six weeks or so.” Bourjos is projected to earn an affordable $1.8MM in arbitration, but with Matt Holliday, Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Jon Jay and Tommy Pham all in the fold, it’s certainly easy to envision him being traded to another club. (Moving Holliday to first base, Mozeliak said, isn’t a consideration.) A non-tender strikes me as unlikely, simply because Bourjos’ defensive ceiling is so high. A team in need of center field options such as the Brewers, Indians, Mariners or Padres would make some sense to me as a fit.
Tyler Lyons or Marco Gonzales could emerge as left-handed relief options in next year’s bullpen, according to Mozeliak (via Goold). The Cardinals like the idea of using either in the bullpen because they’d be less-specialized options than Randy Choate was over the past few seasons.
As Langosch notes, the team hasn’t made a decision on Jaime Garcia’s $11.5MM option, but the Cardinals feel he exceeded their expectations in 2015. “You think back to Garcia, and the impact that he made on our roster was extremely positive,” said Mozeliak. “If we were having this conversation in February, I don’t think any of us would have thought he was going to contribute, especially the way he did.” I’d expect the option to be exercised, especially considering Mozeliak’s August comments on Garcia.
Don’t expect many (or any) changes in the Cardinals dugout, as Goold writes that the entire coaching staff has been invited back for the 2016 season.
Bernie Miklasz of 101 ESPN examines the difficulties of managing in the social media era as part of a lengthy piece on manager Mike Matheny. While Miklasz notes that he has often been critical of Matheny himself, he also opines the onslaught of criticism Matheny received during the NLDS wasn’t necessarily deserved, as Matheny alone was not the reason for the Cardinals’ early exit from the playoffs.

Quick Hits: Heyward, Red Sox, Utley, Reds

By Mark Polishuk | September 27, 2015 at 11:43pm CDT

Jason Heyward’s well-rounded game might best be appreciated by the “data-driven organization” that has watched him all season, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. This might be why the Cardinals could go into team-record contract territory to re-sign Heyward this winter, and the club is indeed interested in bringing him back “though they recognize it might take another team (or more) to help frame negotiations.” Goold writes that the Cards are open to the idea of including an opt-out clause in Heyward’s deal, which would allow the 26-year-old to potentially return to the open market in four or five seasons and score another big contract.

Here’s the latest from around baseball as we head into the last week of the regular season…

Heyward, for his part, tells Goold that how the Cardinals view players “is ideal for a player like myself….I’m trying to do anything to win and people see that. That’s what they care about. They’re not looking at overall statistics. There are a few (teams) that would fit me, and here is one of them. That stands out. For me, it stands out especially.”
Dave Dombrowski has retained many members of the Red Sox front office staff, which Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com writes was contrary to the public perception that Dombrowski was going to “blow up the organization” and restaff it with past colleagues. Instead, Dombrowski has made a few changes (perhaps most notably the hiring of Frank Wren as a senior VP of baseball ops) but has mostly kept the well-regarded Sox personnel in place. Promoting Mike Hazen from assistant GM to general manager underscores this continuity.
Chase Utley has been getting some time at third base for the Dodgers, which JP Hoornstra of the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin notes both helps the Dodgers depth-wise and could help the veteran continue his career as a utility infielder in future seasons.
A reader asked John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer (on Twitter) if the Reds might pursue Alfredo Simon as a free agent innings eater. Fay doesn’t see the team going down that path, but he thinks that they could consider Bronson Arroyo, another former Red, in a similar role. After missing all of 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery, Arroyo will likely have his 2016 option bought out by the Dodgers and he’ll be available on the open market.

NL Central Notes: Martinez, Byrd, Heyward, Lucroy

By Steve Adams | September 16, 2015 at 9:02pm CDT

The Reds did indeed scout top Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez, tweets John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, but they’re not likely to sign the 20-year-old, he adds. The Reds aren’t interested in incurring maximum penalties for exceeding their international bonus pool, which they’d almost certainly need to do in order to sign Martinez. The team that signs Martinez will likely have to pay a 100 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over their allotted pool, and they’ll also be restricted from signing future international prospects for more than $300K in each of the next two signing periods. That, of course, hasn’t deterred some clubs from spending big, but it perhaps makes it more likely that we’ll see Martinez land with a team that has already exceeded its bonus pool by a substantial margin. Interestingly, though, Fay hears that the price tag may have dropped below the previous $10MM+ expectations (Twitter link).

Here’s more from the NL Central…

Prior to being traded to the Giants, Marlon Byrd had somewhat of a “spat” with Reds bench coach Jay Bell, writes Fay in a separate column. Per Fay, Byrd became upset after Bell asked him to pinch-hit in the bottom of the eighth inning the day before he was traded, but he then sent Brayan Pena into the on-deck circle instead. Byrd ultimately wound up pinch-hitting, but only after a discussion with manager Bryan Price. “I didn’t get in a spat with Jay Bell,” said Byrd. “I had a conversation with the manager about Jay Bell. We had conversations all year about him. If you want to know more about that, you’d have to talk to him.” Byrd was traded to the Giants the next day, though he said he left on good terms with the his teammates and had generally positive things to say about the Reds in the conversation with Fay and other reporters.
Bernie Miklasz of 101 ESPN breaks down Jason Heyward’s free agent stock, adding that he expects the Cardinals to make a push to retain their right fielder. Though the outfield looks crowded in the short-term, Matt Holliday’s contract is up after 2016, as is Jon Jay’s. As such, the team could boast a future outfield of Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Heyward. While traditional numbers — homers, RBIs, batting average — don’t tell the full tale of Heyward’s value, Miklasz notes that more analytically inclined teams will be willing to make a big play for the 26-year-old. The Cardinals, Miklasz writes, prefer a higher annual value on a shorter-term deal than the risk of a nine- or 10-year pact, and they may even be open to including an opt-out clause, though that final point appears to be speculative in nature.
Though they’re division rivals, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny had no issues giving Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy some advice on how to handle the concussion symptoms with which he is currently dealing, writes the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak. Matheny, whose playing career ended due to a long history of concussions, recommended a specialist for Lucroy to see and urged him to take his time, noting points in his career where he believes he may have suffered a concussion then returned to the field the very next day, only to take another foul ball to the mask. “[Matheny] said it was not worth a repeat hit when you’re not healed up, because that’s when things get really, really bad in terms of not being able to drive, not being able to look at lights, throwing up and nausea and stuff like that,” said Lucroy. “He really stressed, ’Take your time.'” Dr. Micky Collins has told Lucroy that he can make a full recovery from what has been diagnosed as a vestibular concussion — or one that impacts his coordination and movement.

MLBTR Mailbag: Heyward, Murphy, Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | September 14, 2015 at 9:08pm CDT

Thanks for all of your questions this week. Remember that you can ask about whatever is on your mind in our Tuesday afternoon chats (~2pm central) or through the Mailbag email address (mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com). On to this week’s questions…

Will the Cardinals extend Jason Heyward or not, because they did give up Shelby Miller to acquire him, and it doesn’t make much sense to let him walk after one year. — Michael P

The two sides haven’t had any serious talks about an extension yet, though there’s also some mutual interest in Heyward staying beyond 2015. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked the outfielder as having the second-most earning potential of any 2015-16 free agent, so it would take easily the largest contract in Cardinals franchise history to bring Heyward back into the fold. If Heyward did leave, the 2016 St. Louis starting outfield projects as Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty, with Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos as backups, which could leave room for another veteran outfielder to be brought in at a lower price than Heyward will command. Does a year of excellent play from Heyward, a month of Jordan Walden and a compensatory first-round draft pick (due to the qualifying offer) equal four years of control over Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins? That’s a question that might take a few more years to answer, though the Cards would instantly chalk it up as a win if Heyward helps them win a championship. I’d guess that St. Louis will make a strong play to re-sign Heyward this offseason, though if the bidding gets really high (into the $180MM-$200MM range), that might be too expensive for the Cards’ liking.

Care to handicap the odds that Sandy Alderson extends a QO to Daniel Murphy? If offered is there any chance that Murph becomes the first player to ever accept? I’d imagine his agent will make lots of noise that he would “love to stay in NY on a 1 year deal to finish the job” in an attempt to bluff the Mets out of hurting his market value. — Cliff P

The upcoming class of free agent second and third basemen isn’t very deep, so I’d expect Murphy would indeed reject a qualifying offer in search of a healthy multi-year deal elsewhere. He should be able to find such a deal despite the draft pick compensation attached to his services, though Cliff is probably right in thinking that Murphy’s market will take a hit from the QO. If Murphy did break precedent and accept, it wouldn’t be the worst outcome for the Mets; a one-year/$16MM deal for an everyday second baseman who can also be something of a poor man’s Ben Zobrist in his ability to fill in at multiple other positions.

Yes or No. The Red Sox will sign one of the following this offseason: David Price, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann? — Kyle R

I’m leaning towards no. Anibal Sanchez is the only notable starting pitcher Dave Dombrowski has ever acquired in free agency, and even then Sanchez was re-signed after originally coming to the Tigers in a midseason deal. Dombrowski’s past history with starting pitcher contracts (hat tip to the MLBTR Transaction Tracker) indicates that he is more likely to obtain an ace via trade. Dombrowski could change tactics given his new surroundings and input from whomever is hired as the new Red Sox GM, though my guess is that if the Sox do land a top-tier arm this winter, it will be by dealing from their deep farm system.

What is Bronson Arroyo’s current standing with the Dodgers? Will he ever be able to pitch in the majors again, this year or next? — Jack S

Arroyo underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2014. He said in June that he was hoping to return to action by mid-August, there has been no recent word on his status now that August has come and gone. As such, he’s almost certainly not going to pitch this season. The Dodgers have a $13MM club option on Arroyo for 2016 that is sure to be bought out for $4.5MM (paid by the Braves, as per a condition of the elaborate trade that brought Arroyo to Los Angeles). If Arroyo is healthy, I’d expect he will find a a minor league deal from some team this winter. Arroyo hasn’t hinted at retirement in the wake of his injury, though since he’ll turn 39 in February, you have to wonder if he’ll consider hanging up his spikes if his recovery process is taking longer than expected.

Quick Hits: Free Agents, Heyward, Cespedes, Greinke

By Mark Polishuk | September 13, 2015 at 11:37pm CDT

In the latest edition of his 10 Degrees column, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan looks at what some of the offseason’s top free agents are likely to fetch on the open market after conversations with two GMs, two agents and two front office personnel executives. All agree that David Price is a lock to receive more than $200MM though contract predictions fluctuate with other players. Chris Davis, for instance, inspired guesses that ranged from a $60MM deal to a $150MM deal. I agree with Passan that guessing on the high side is the better option, since power bats are at a premium; nine figures seems the minimum for Davis’ next contract. Here’s some more from Passan’s column and elsewhere around baseball…

Jason Heyward “will be the bellwether of this market,” as his unique case as a player who brings youth (26 years old) and elite defense to free agency rather than an elite bat will set the tone for other signings. His youth could play a different role in the contract, as one GM thinks Heyward could sign an eight-year, $175MM deal with an opt-out clause after four years. This way Heyward could hit free agency again when he’s only 30 years old and in good position for another major contract. Passan notes that Heyward is represented by Excel Sports Management, and Excel’s Casey Close has negotiated high-profile opt-out clauses in recent contracts for clients Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (though it’s worth mentioning that Heyward isn’t represented by Close himself).
Two free agents who were dealt at the trade deadline have greatly harmed (Johnny Cueto) and helped (Yoenis Cespedes) their chances at a major deal this winter due to their performances with their new clubs. Passan notes that Mets ownership finds itself in a Catch-22 with Cespedes. Letting him leave would enrage a fanbase that already feels the club doesn’t spend enough, yet Cespedes has enough flaws in his game that the Mets could easily find themselves burned by giving him a massive long-term contract. All six of Passan’s sources feel Cespedes’ market will begin at $125MM and perhaps go as high as $160MM.
Zack Greinke’s age will keep him from getting a seven- or eight-year commitment when he opts out of his Dodgers contract, though Passan feels Greinke could look to set a new record for highest average annual value in the form of a five-year, $175MM deal.
In his ranking of the five open GM positions in baseball, Joel Sherman of the New York Post lists the Red Sox job as the most appealing given the team’s financial resources, passionate fanbase and existing talent in both the majors and minors. The downside is that the Boston job carries a particular amount of pressure, and a new GM may not have autonomy with Dave Dombrowski leading the baseball operations department. Sherman lists the pros and cons of the Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Angels and Brewers openings, though as one executive puts it, “There is no perfect job. If you wait for the perfect one, you will wait forever….You have to figure out how to accentuate the positives and fix or navigate around the warts.”
Former Royals hurler Brian Bannister is the first Red Sox director of pitching analysis and development, a position specifically created by Dombrowski to match Bannister’s unique skill-set. Peter Gammons, in his latest piece for GammonsDailycom, looks at the work Bannister has already done with Boston’s pitchers in his former capacity as a pro scout, and how Bannister is blending mound experience with knowledge gleaned from analytical data.
Matt Harvey is scheduled to make his next start against the Yankees on Sunday, a Mets team source tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Harvey was only supposed to start once more after that, though manager Terry Collins told Ackert and other reporters that workload wouldn’t do enough to keep the ace sharp for the playoffs. “We got to get him on the mound a little more consistently,” Collins said. “Every 12 days is not a good scenario….We have to have Matt Harvey ready to pitch. He doesn’t need to have 15 days off. We got to have him ready.” The Mets could use Harvey on regular turns in the rotation but just on limited innings and pitch counts in each outing, with a reliever ready to “piggyback” the rest of the outing.

No “Substantive” Extension Talks Between Cardinals, Jason Heyward

By Mark Polishuk | August 10, 2015 at 7:28am CDT

The Cardinals and Jason Heyward have yet to engage in any “substantive talks” about a contract extension, the outfielder tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Cards also haven’t applied any particular pressure to delve into negotiations, which is just how Heyward likes it:

“At this point, I think both sides are OK with that, OK with where things are right now. Both sides want to make sure everybody is happy. That’s really what they’ve been asking me about the whole time. ‘Hey, you like it here? Hey, you comfortable?’ They want to make sure I feel at home, make sure I can be myself, and that’s been their focus. They’ve allowed me the time to fit in. That has meant a lot.”

It could be argued that the Cardinals haven’t pursued negotiations since Heyward isn’t in their future plans, though Goold writes that both the Cards’ ownership and front office is interested in a long-term deal. While St. Louis hasn’t hesitated to let notable names such as Albert Pujols or Carlos Beltran leave in free agency over the years, the club has also moved to lock up other key players either just prior to free agency (e.g. Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright) or once they’ve actually hit the open market (i.e. Matt Holliday).

Goold cites the Holliday signing as similar to Heyward’s situation — a trade acquisition the Cards “wanted…to get to know the club first.” It wouldn’t make much sense for Heyward to sign an extension this close to free agency, but he seems impressed enough by the Cardinals that he could lean towards re-signing this winter.

In his latest 2016 free agent power rankings, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rated Heyward as the player with the second-most earning potential on the open market this offseason (behind only David Price). While Heyward hasn’t developed into the star slugger many projected he would become, his still-solid bat, elite defense and youth (he turned 26 yesterday) could put him in line for an eight-year contract, which Dierkes estimates could be in the $180MM range. That would easily be the most expensive contract in Cardinals history, far eclipsing Holliday’s seven-year, $120MM guaranteed deal from the 2009-10 offseason.

John Hart Talks Braves Trades Of Past And Future

By Jeff Todd | July 16, 2015 at 11:38am CDT

Braves president of baseball operations John Hart discussed the upcoming trade deadline and a wide range of other topics in a fascinating Q&A with Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. A full read of this excellent interview is highly recommended, but here are some of the highlights:

With July 31 fast approaching, Hart said it’s still an open question: “Do we pick up the phone or answer the phone? I’m not sure yet.” Noting that he “never made any false promises that we were built to win this year,” Hart nevertheless said it’s still possible that the team will make some additions at the deadline. But he cautioned that “we’re not going to be big buyers.”

[RELATED: Braves To Sign Jason Frasor]

Of course, selling is also still a distinct possibility, but Hart made clear that he wouldn’t move veterans just to get something back. “We don’t have the big chip that will take somebody over the top,” said Hart. “If people want good pieces and they can offer us something, yeah. But we’re going to take great care. We’re playing short. There is a very real possibility we won’t do anything.”

Looking back, Hart said that his first order of business upon taking the reigns of baseball decisionmaking in Atlanta was “to rebuild the pitching staff” at the major league level and “grow” the farm system. It was not, apparently, a tough choice to move veteran assets to facilitate those efforts. As he put it: “At some point, you have to stop and ask, ’How long are we going to chase this?'”

And the major challenge? Per Hart: “[W]e had some economic pieces out there that weren’t conducive to this club making moves. I had to think about moving some good players and I had to think: How do I attach good players to move money? I had some of the most unusual trade conversations I’ve had in my life.”

Hart also talked through the deals that were ultimately made. You’ll need to (and should) read the entire piece for his full breakdown, of course. Hart indicated that he was somewhat disappointed with being unable to add both a current major league starter and a future arm for Justin Upton (after achieving that with Jason Heyward).

“The Justin Upton deal we [discussed] so many pieces. The guys we wanted, [the Padres] didn’t put in — they got put into another [trade],” Hart said. “[Evan] Gattis, we looked at a lot of different names. There were some circumstances that didn’t work out.” (It’s not clear this is the deal he’s referring to, but it’s worth noting that San Diego shipped Jesse Hahn to the A’s, as part of the Derek Norris deal, the day before acquiring Upton.)

As for the deal that sent closer Craig Kimbrel to the Padres on the eve of Opening Day, Hart explaind that it took an exceptional set of circumstances. Questions via Schultz, of course:

Q: But was your only chance to get rid of B.J. Upton’s contract.

A: That was obviously the intent. We had 10 calls on Kimbrel in the winter but we just hung up because they wouldn’t take an off load. San Diego was one of the clubs that came up early.

Q: Did it shock you when they said they would take Upton?

A: Yeah, it did. They put all of their chips in.

Hart went on to address catcher Christian Bethancourt, saying that he believes the youngster needs to improve his “level of preparedness.” As to whether the team moved him to the big leagues too soon, Hart explained: “We talked about it in the winter. We called him up last year and he had a good first month and a not-so-good last month. That sort of left a bad taste. It’s fixable. But at some point the player has to assume some responsibility.”

Finally, Hart offered rather effusive praise for skipper Fredi Gonzalez. He indicated that he felt it would be an easy decision to decide whether to retain him for 2016, though stopped short of making any promises. “I don’t want to go there,” said Hart. “There’s timing. But Fredi’s been really good. He’s been good to work with and he’s done a good job with his staff. And this club may fall apart but I know if it happens it’s not going to be because Fredi forgot how to manage.”

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