Reported Runner-Up Offers For Heyward And Greinke
The most important numbers involved in any free agent scenario are, obviously, the final deal terms. But the offers made by other clubs are not only interesting but also potentially tell us something about the market — both at the time of the signing and even moving forward.
We heard plenty of discussion today about how much cash was dangled in front of two of this year’s three biggest free agent pieces: Jason Heyward and Zack Greinke. Heyward reportedly agreed with the Cubs for eight years and $184MM, with a contract provision allowing him two separate opportunities to opt out of the deal and re-enter the market. Meanwhile, after exercising just such a clause to jump back into the free agent waters, Greinke inked a mind-blowing six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks (which included some very significant deferrals).
Before entering those arrangements, both players considered multiple other arrangements. For Heyward, the elusive $200MM barrier was reportedly met or exceeded by both the Nationals and the Cardinals. (Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch — here and here — and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, on Twitter.) And at least one other team, possibly the Angels, also beat Chicago’s total guarantee with its bid. (That’s per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Twitter links; see here for the Halos’ late interest.)
Notably, though, we’ve not been told how many years Washington and St. Louis covered in their offers, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that it seems neither met the $23MM AAV that Heyward will reportedly receive. And as Keith Law of ESPN.com stresses on Twitter, it’s even more important to bear in mind that the opt-out opportunities carry significant value and that Heyward will owe less in state taxes in Illinois than he would have in the other locales.
While acknowledging the opt-out value, Passan notes that it’s nevertheless “uncommon” for a player to turn down a greater overall guarantee, and that’s largely true in the abstract. But it’s important to remember, too, that Heyward’s unique market placement — he hasn’t even reached the halfway point between 26 and 27 years of age — makes his situation quite a bit different from that of most free agents.
For one thing, Heyward’s age arguably increases the worth of those bail-out clauses even further, since he’ll gain the right to re-enter the market in advance of his age-29 season. That’s still early for a free agent, and might give Heyward a chance not only to step up his AAV (if his performance increases and/or salary inflation continues) but also to tack on more years down the line. Greinke pulled exactly that trick despite turning 32 before signing his new deal, and the upside for Heyward is even greater.
Also, gaining two opt-out points will allow Heyward to assess his market timing while keeping the future guarantee in his back pocket. That not only adds to the value going to him in this deal but also increases the uncertainty and risk for the Cubs.
It’s worth noting, too, that even if Heyward does play out the full eight years in Chicago, he’ll stand to hit the market again before he turns 35. That’s exactly the point in his career that Ben Zobrist finds himself as he joins the Cubs on a four-year, $56MM contract. There’s good reason to believe that Heyward will be plenty capable of continuing to earn money on the open market at the end of his deal, which makes it much easier (and arguably wise) to forego another year (or two) of commitment for a relatively marginal bump in the overall guarantee — all at the cost of annual earning power.
Simply put, without knowing whether the other bidders were willing to include similar opt-out terms, and without knowing the length of their proposals, it’s impossible to compare the offers. From my perspective, though, the deal that Heyward ultimately agreed to is a better contract for him than the straight ten-year, $200MM deal that we at MLBTR thought Heyward could command (see here and here).
As for Greinke, the veteran righty said today in his introductory press conference that he was literally minutes away from signing with some unknown other club before Arizona swept in. ESPN’s Molly Knight tweeted that the Giants were actually the runners up, making Greinke a six-year, $195MM offer.
But San Francisco’s president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has said publicly that the club was not comfortable promising Greinke a sixth year. And both Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link) and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (also on Twitter) strongly disputed the notion that the Giants had come anywhere near the D-Backs’ offer.
The Dodgers, too, are said to have balked at going to six years on Greinke, as MLB.com’s Mark Saxon was among those to note recently (Twitter link). It remains unclear how high the Los Angeles offer was, and whether it or another team was the one that nearly struck a deal with Greinke.
Looking at all of those reported offers, it seems clear that there are several clubs that have the capacity and willingness to spend much more money this winter than they have so far. That’s not to say that all will actually put that cash right back into free agency. But the potential is there, and it’s also notable that an unexpected team (the Diamondbacks) put so much cash onto the market.
All said, there’s plenty left to be spent. And that makes sense: more than half of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents — including six of the top ten — remain unsigned at present.
Jason Heyward Makes Decision; Cardinals Out, Nats Pessimistic
11:54pm: Heyman tweets that the Nationals are believed to have offered about or exactly $200MM to Heyward.
11:52am: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Cardinals are “out” on Heyward.
11:50am: Jason Heyward has made a decision on which team he’ll sign with, a source tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). Goold writes that while the Cardinals were aggressive, it doesn’t sound like Heyward chose them. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that the Nationals aren’t optimistic about a deal, either. The Cubs are “very much in play,” says Goold, though no report has indicated that Chicago has agreed to terms with Heyward just yet.
Heyward was said recently to be nearing a decision, with the Cubs, Cardinals and Nationals as finalists. The Angels were, at one point, said to be a finalist also, and the Giants have been linked to him, though they reportedly never made a formal offer.
Nationals “Serious Threat” To Land Heyward, Who Has $200MM Offer In Hand
9:46pm: A source tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that the Nats are “heavily involved” and are making a “legit” effort to sign the young outfielder. He adds, interestingly, that Taylor “would become expendable” if a deal is struck.
From an analytical perspective, it seems plenty plausible that the team could add Heyward (or another outfielder) and keep Taylor. For one thing, there’s plenty of justification to give him further developmental time at Triple-A. For another, he’d still be an important depth piece in the near term and would have plenty of possibilities for increased playing time with the clock ticking on Werth’s contract (and perhaps also his time as a full-time regular).
7:24pm: Washington is a “serious threat” to land Heyward, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com reports on Twitter.
3:45pm: The Nationals are the “mystery team” pursuing free agent outfielder Jason Heyward, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. They are joined in the chase for Heyward by the Cubs and Cardinals, per the report.
It’s not known which of those clubs — if not another — is in the lead, but Heyman adds in another tweet that Heyward has at least one offer at or over $200MM on the table. That’s not exactly surprising, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Heyward would reach the double-century mark, but does appear to suggest that he’ll be in position to maximize his potential market value.
Heyward’s youth and broad skillset make him a tantalizing target even for clubs that otherwise seem set in the outfield, as I explained in breaking down Heyward’s free agent case in late October. He’s a very good, but not great, hitter who has never returned to the power ceiling he showed earlier in his career. But he’s at the top of the class in basically every other area.
It’s possible that Washington would utilize Heyward in center field were he to land there, Heyman suggests. While the team has youngster Michael A. Taylor lined up to take over there, he’s still raw. It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that veteran Jayson Werth has only two years left on his deal and could ultimately stand to receive added rest given his nagging injuries over the years. While trades could be considered in the wake of a signing, it’s also possible to imagine Heyward splitting his time up the middle and in the corner for some time as the teams waits to see what happens with its other options.
Cubs, Cardinals, Angels Among Finalists For Jason Heyward
2:29pm: MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez hears that the Angels aren’t seriously involved in the market for Heyward at this point (or for any top outfielder, for that matter), though he does add that said stance can change quickly (Twitter link).
1:31pm: ESPN’s Jayson Stark hears that Heyward isn’t looking for a 10-year deal in the $200MM range as has oft been speculated, but rather something more like eight or nine years at $24MM per season (Twitter link).
1:17pm: The Angels are also among the finalists for Heyward, reports Morosi (via Twitter).
11:37am: Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said he hasn’t been given any sort of indication as to the timing of a Heyward decision, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
10:00am: Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweets that the Giants checked in with Heyward but never got to the point of making an offer. There’s a sense in Nashville that Heyward will come off the board today, Pavlovic adds.
9:34am: Talks between Jason Heyward and interested parties are beginning to progress, according to Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports report (Twitter link). The Cubs and Cardinals are among the finalists, per the report, but there are other yet-unnamed clubs in the mix for Heyward’s services.
Heyward’s name has come up most frequently in connection to the Cardinals and Cubs as of late, though he’s also been linked to the Angels and Giants in various reports, as each club could use a left-handed corner bat. The Giants, in particular, were said to prefer Heyward to some of the other bats on the market at present due to his glovework, though it remains to be seen if they’ll be among the top bidders in the end.
Latest On Cubs’ Search For Outfielders
The Cubs are among the teams with interest in free agent outfielder Denard Span, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Chicago is also continuing to pursue Jason Heyward, Heyman adds, as has been reported previously.
Span comes to the free agent market offering the upside of a high-quality regular at a reduced asking price. He’s nearing 32 years of age and, more importantly, has dealt with fairly significant core muscle and back issues.
But Span has been excellent when healthy, slashing a combined .301/.358/.421 over the past two seasons with 42 stolen bases in 943 plate appearances. He could provide a near-term replacement for fellow free agent Dexter Fowler in center.
It’s not immediately clear whether the team has any inclination to add multiple outfielders. Notably, the addition of Ben Zobrist provides another outfield-capable player to the mix.
If Chicago were to add multiple outfielders, that would certainly seem likely to be done in concert with a trade involving one or more of the team’s current players. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter), Chicago was second in the bidding for Shelby Miller and was willing to send Jorge Soler to Atlanta. That doesn’t mean that Soler is being shopped around, of course, but does suggest that the club feels comfortable parting with him in the right scenario.
NL Central Notes: Chapman, Cubs, Pirates
The domestic violence allegations against closer Aroldis Chapman will likely make it very difficult for the Reds to trade him, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. Police records indicate that, in late October, Chapman allegedly choked his girlfriend, shoved her against a wall and fired eight gunshots in his garage. The allegations appear to have derailed the Reds’ trade of Chapman to the Dodgers. “I know we can’t touch him. Our owner would never go for that. And I’m getting the sense from other teams that they feel the same way,” one NL executive says. “Yeah, we know talent can cover up some character flaws, but domestic violence is such a hot topic now.” Spurred by cases involving Ray Rice and others in the NFL, domestic violence has become a high-profile issue in sports, and a team trading for Chapman would likely now be opening itself to a barrage of criticism. It doesn’t look like MLB’s investigation into Chapman’s situation will be resolved quickly, either. Nightengale notes that Chapman’s situation could lead to changes in the way MLB teams announce player acquisitions, potentially including language about completing background checks as well as physicals. Here are more notes from the NL Central.
- The Cubs have maintained steady contact with Jason Heyward‘s representation, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi tweets. It’s uncertain, however, whether they’ll continue to have interest after agreeing to terms with Ben Zobrist. Heyward has lately been connected to the Giants, Angels and Cardinals.
- One possibility for the Cardinals if they can’t re-sign Heyward is to sign Alex Gordon for less, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggests (Twitter links). With the savings, they could then pursue NPB starter Kenta Maeda. Gordon could play right field in 2016, then move to left if the Cardinals decline Matt Holliday‘s option for the following season.
- The Pirates are interested in re-signing Sean Rodriguez, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review tweets. Rodriguez batted a modest .246/.281/.362 with the Bucs in 2015 but helped with his versatility, playing competent defense while splitting his time between first and the corner outfield positions (and also occasionally helping elsewhere in the infield).
- The Bucs are exploring a variety of possibilities at first base, writes MLB.com’s Adam Berry. Specifically, Berry writes that the Pirates have expressed interest in Mike Napoli, although the right-handed Napoli seems like a slightly awkward fit given the presence of the right-handed Michael Morse on the Bucs’ roster. After non-tendering Pedro Alvarez, the Pirates are looking for a new first baseman to form a bridge to top prospect Josh Bell.
Outfield Rumors: Giants, Cespedes, Ozuna, Royals, D-Backs, Angels
The Giants are monitoring the market for outfielders, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. San Francisco is prioritizing Jason Heyward, Alex Gordon and Dexter Fowler over Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes for defensive reasons, Morosi adds. That rationale is a bit odd, considering the fact that Cespedes is generally regarded as a stellar defender in left field. Heyward and Fowler, of course, are better fits to see occasional or even regular time in center field than Cespedes would be. But, with Angel Pagan under contract for 2016 and Hunter Pence entrenched in right field, left field would seem to be an area of need.
Here are a few more notes on the outfield market…
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Giants, Angels, Tigers and Royals have been the most interested clubs in Cespedes’ market thus far in the offseason. However, Sherman adds that the Royals quickly came to realize that Cespedes is going to be beyond four years. It should be noted, of course, that Detroit general manager Al Avila said yesterday that his team is not in the mix for either Cespedes or Gordon. (Though that doesn’t mean there wasn’t some earlier talk between the two sides, and, as Sherman notes, the Tigers could circle back if Cespedes’ market doesn’t pick up.)
- Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna has drawn trade interest from “at least seven to 10 teams,” Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. Spencer adds that an eventual trade of Ozuna seems to be likely.
- Royals GM Dayton Moore told reporters today that the club feels Jarrod Dyson will likely get a chance to hold down a regular job in the corner outfield, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. Filling one corner outfield spot from within would obviously reduce the team’s needs and potentially increase the team’s flexibility to spend on another outfielder.
- Diamondbacks outfield prospect Socrates Brito is “getting some play” at the Winter Meetings, Jack Magruder of FanRag Sports tweets. The 23-year-old reached the majors last year, slashing .303/.324/.455 in just 34 plate appearances, and has shown an intriguing power/speed combo in the minors.
- Angels GM Billy Eppler has spoken to the agents for all of the major free-agent outfielders — including Heyward, Cespedes and Upton — according to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times (Twitter link). However, DiGiovanna cautions that we shouldn’t expect the Halos to set the market by being the first to agree to a major deal for an outfielder.
- Via, MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli (Twitter link), Orioles GM Dan Duquette said that his club has been “aggressive” in its efforts to add a left-handed hitting corner outfielder.
- The Twins had interest in Rajai Davis two offseasons ago when he signed with the Tigers, and they have some interest again this winter, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter link). However, their interest is somewhat limited, he notes, as a fourth outfield type isn’t a high priority for the team right now. Davis is said to be in talks with the Indians.
Latest On Angels’ Search For Outfielder
The Angels have engaged in “ongoing conversations” with the representatives of free agent outfielder Justin Upton, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, meanwhile, hears that there’s “nothing happening” at present between those sides. (Twitter links.)
Los Angeles has long been said to be pursuing a new left fielder, and Upton would represent one of the best options available for that role. Of course, there are many others, and Morosi adds on Twitter that the club is still considering the idea of signing Jason Heyward and moving Kole Calhoun to right field. That possibility has long been talked about as an option, though there’s still little indication that talks have progressed (if they’ve taken place at all).
Outfield Notes: Pollock, Heyward, Gomez, Gordon, Parra
Here’s the latest news on some notable outfielders…
- The Indians asked the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock in exchange for Danny Salazar, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. Pollock has been an in-demand piece from several rival teams as the D’Backs have looked for high-end young pitchers like Salazar or Shelby Miller, to name two. Arizona GM Dave Stewart says he’s willing to listen to offers, “but with the understanding that we’re not entering any room with the intention to trade A.J. Pollock.” D’Backs CEO Derrick Hall described Pollock as “nearly untouchable” earlier this week, so it remains unlikely that the Snakes would actually move the star center fielder.
- By signing John Lackey rather than a higher-priced ace, the Cubs will use some of those savings to pursue Jason Heyward, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. If Heyward can’t be signed, the Cubs’ backup options would be to sign Alex Gordon or try to acquire Carlos Gomez from the Astros.
- Speaking of teams with Plan-B outfield ideas, the Royals are interested in Gerardo Parra if they can’t bring Gordon back, FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi tweets. Parra is hopeful of landing a four-year contract, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link), since he’s getting attention from multiple teams. The Giants, Mariners, Mets and (to a limited extent) Orioles have also been linked to Parra at various points this winter.
- If Jeff Francoeur doesn’t re-sign with the Phillies, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick sees the Brewers, Pirates and Rangers as possible fits to add the veteran outfielder as a bench bat.
NL Central Notes: Cards, Heyward, Lucroy
Here’s a look at the NL Central:
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says that his club continues to pursue Jason Heyward, as Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com tweets. He also expects to see movement in the free agent outfield market this week. The rival Cubs have been mentioned as a potential landing spot for Heyward as well.
- When asked if he felt that it was a necessity for the Cardinals to add a starting pitcher, Mozeliak said, “No. I don’t,” according to Langosch (on Twitter).
- The Cardinals might not address pitching until they know how the Heyward market shakes out, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. He adds that St. Louis is fond of free agent hurler Mike Leake, but only at a certain price. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Leake would score a five-year, $80MM deal.
- The Brewers have been listening on catcher Jonathan Lucroy, according to Rosenthal (on Twitter). Lucroy’s team-friendly contract calls for a $4MM salary in 2016 and a $5.5MM club option in ’17, enhancing his value.
- Brewers GM David Stearns indicated that a trade of Lucroy is less than likely, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Journal-Sentinel (on Twitter).
- Stearns is looking for short-term help in center field (via Haudricourt), adding that he is certain that he will find one before next season for the Brewers.
- Pirates GM Neal Huntington said his first base search is “still wide open,” per Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Post-Gazette (on Twitter). That means that the Bucs could look for an everyday player or just a backup/platoon guy to pair with Mike Morse.
- The Pirates will meet with Scott Kazmir‘s representation here in Nashville, a source tells Travis Sawchick of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter).