How Much Will John Danks Earn In 2012?
If they don't sign extensions, starters John Danks, Matt Garza, Jeremy Guthrie, and Jered Weaver will enter fairly uncharted waters in the upcoming offseason as their agents attempt to establish their 2012 salaries. As I mentioned earlier this month, top starters are unwilling to go year-to-year through arbitration these days. We rarely see a healthy, ace-type pitcher make it to his third arbitration year, but Danks, Garza, Guthrie, and Weaver are primed to do just that.
Using Danks as a case study, I asked five arbitration experts what they think he'll earn in 2012. Danks is at an even $6MM this year, and we're assuming a normal platform season from him in 2011.
The ceiling for Danks appears to be around $12MM. Carlos Zambrano, who received a $5.9MM raise to $12.4MM for the 2007 season, is the comparable Danks' agent at CAA Sports (Jeff Berry) might aim for. However, none of the five experts I spoke to thought Danks' career or platform year numbers will top Zambrano's. Everyone instead predicted a salary in the $10-11MM range for Danks. Zambrano had comparables of his own, by the way, as Chan Ho Park and Kevin Millwood received $6MM raises early in the decade.
There is an interesting possibility, depending on which pitcher in Danks' class settles first. One arbitration consultant noted, "The best evidence in any arbitration hearing is the current class, and if these guys work together they could really redefine this entire market. I could see Danks getting $10.5-11MM right now. But would not be shocked if this group of pitchers changed that." He gave an example of the first-time starting pitcher market shifting during the 2010-11 offseason, as Armando Galarraga became the new $2.3MM type and Kyle Kendrick and Kevin Slowey were able to do better.
Chicago pitchers Danks and Garza are particularly comparable, so that'll be an interesting parallel to follow throughout the season. The 2012 starting pitching arbitration class is loaded with intrigue. Clayton Kershaw and David Price will duke it out trying to top Dontrelle Willis' first-time record of $4.35MM (it appears both will succeed). As a third-year arbitration eligible starter Weaver could post a Cy Young season and fly past $13MM. Tim Lincecum, who is already at $13MM, is headed for an arbitration record-breaking salary. Cole Hamels is in line for a huge bump as well, entering his fourth arbitration year coming off a $9.5MM salary. If like many MLBTR readers you're fascinated by this stuff, January and February should be exciting months.
Multiyear Deal Notes: Pelfrey, Danks, Andrus
We already found out that the Brewers and Rickie Weeks are tabling talks about a multiyear contract while the Cubs hope to pursue one with Carlos Marmol, so let's recap a few more notes regarding potential contract extensions…
- Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets that the Mets never talked about a multiyear contract with Mike Pelfrey before agreeing to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration today.
- John Danks told MLB.com's Scott Merkin that neither he nor the White Sox are panicking about getting an extension done. "It's not at the point where it's do-or-die for a [multiyear] deal," said the lefty, who confirmed that the two sides haven't talked seriously about a deal since before the 2009 season (Twitter link).
- Meanwhile, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan wonders if the Rangers will approach Elvis Andrus about a multiyear contract in Spring Training. Andrus is under team control through the 2014 season.
Players To Avoid Arbitration: Tuesday
Today is the deadline for players and teams to submit arbitration figures. The sides will then settle on a salary between the team's proposed number and the player's proposed number or go to an arbitration hearing. Arbitration eligible players are under team control, so the clubs don't risk losing them – it's a question of how much the players will earn.
Yesterday, 11 players avoided arbitration. We could see just as many agreements trickle in today and we'll keep you posted on them right here and with our Arb Tracker. The latest updates will be at the top of the post:
- The Angels have agreed to terms with Reggie Willits and Howie Kendrick, tweets Bill Shaikin of The Los Angeles Times. Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register tweets that Kendrick will earn $3.3MM, Willits $775K (on Twitter).
- The Giants agreed to terms with Santiago Casilla on a one-year deal worth $1.3MM with incentives, according to ESPN Deportes' Enrique Rojas (on Twitter). The team also announced that they avoided arb with Jonathan Sanchez and Ramon Ramirez (on Twitter). Sanchez will earn $4.8MM with incentives tweets Hank Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle while Ramirez will earn $1.65MM according to Janie McCauley of The Canadian Press.
- The Braves agreed to terms with Peter Moylan and Eric O'Flaherty, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman (on Twitter). Moylan gets $2MM, O'Flaherty gets $895K according to Dave O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (on Twitter).
- The Mariners agreed to terms with Brandon League, David Aardsma and Jason Vargas, the team announced. Aardsma will earn $4.5MM with plenty of incentives, according to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times (plus Twitter link).
- The Rangers agreed to terms with C.J. Wilson and Nelson Cruz, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan (Twitter links). Cruz gets $3.65MM, and Wilson gets $7.05MM with a chance to earn another $100K according to his agent Bob Garber, via email.
Danks, Quentin Declined Extensions Last Winter
John Danks and Carlos Quentin both turned down four-year contract offers from the White Sox last offseason, reports Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com. Both players were entering their first arbitration year and rather than take the long-term contracts, each agreed to a one-year pact (Danks for $3.45MM, Quentin for $3.2MM).
As it turned out, Danks and Quentin illustrated both sides of what can happen when a young player takes a risk and passes up a long-term guarantee. Danks turned down a four-year, $15MM offer, and thus essentially made a $11.55MM bet on himself heading into the 2010 season. The risk paid off — after a strong performance (3.72 ERA, 2.31 K/BB ratio, 213 IP), Danks has put himself in line for a much larger contract. We heard in November that the Sox were again looking to extend Danks, and such an extension will pay the southpaw a lot more than $11.55MM over the next three seasons.
For Quentin, however, 2010 was a struggle. We don't know how much his four-year offer was worth, and it's possible he was justified in rejecting it if Chicago made a lowball offer to try and capitalize on Quentin's down numbers in 2009. Still, Quentin's .821 OPS last season was far removed from his MVP-caliber season in 2008, he struggled badly in the field and his name has come up in trade rumors since the summer.
"The White Sox still don’t seem convinced that Quentin can stay injury- or stress-free over a full season," Padilla writes. He wonders if the Sox might again try to make a long-term offer to Quentin (at an even lower price) to keep him under control if he breaks out for another big season that would drive up his arbitration price next winter and his eventual free agent price after the 2012 season.
White Sox Interested In Extending Danks
The White Sox are trying to create room in their budget to sign John Danks to a multiyear extension, according to Doug Padilla of ESPNChicago.com. Danks, who will be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season, earned $3.45MM this year in his first season as an arbitration eligible player. The White Sox would like to lock him up through 2013 or, preferably, 2014, according to Padilla’s source.
The 25-year-old logged over 200 innings for the second consecutive season in 2010, pitching to a 3.72 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. He’s coming off of a strong season and a relatively large salary for a player in his first season of arbitration. Danks would probably earn roughly $5.5MM through arbitration next year, so a three-year extension could fall in the $23MM range and a four-year extension could cost $10MM or so more.
Click here for an in-depth explanation of why teams have interest in locking up young starters like Danks.
Odds & Ends: Damon, A’s, Beckett, Reynolds, Dye
Sunday links….
- Joe Cowley at the Chicago Sun-Times has Kenny Williams' final take on missing out on Johnny Damon to the Tigers. Cowley's piece also expands a bit on the Dye note we've linked to below.
- The A's received cash to complete the trades for both Adam Rosales and Dana Eveland, writes Susan Slusser.
- Regarding his current contract situation, Josh Beckett says he and the Red Sox "talked about talking," according to WEEI.com's Alex Speier. Beckett says he won't have anything to say about the situation during Spring Training or even after. Speier's piece also contains video highlights of Beckett's press conference, including his take on Mike Lowell's situation.
- MLB.com's Steve Gilbert has a series of tweets regarding Mark Reynolds, who hopes to have his contract situation resolved within the next couple weeks. Reynolds says that the deadline for talks is still Opening Day. Gilbert adds that the current discussion is whether to buy out two or three arbitration years.
- White Sox GM Ken Williams considered pursuing Jermaine Dye, but felt that the Sox' need for a left-handed bat was more pressing, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter).
- MLB.com's Scott Merkin tweets that John Danks and the White Sox did not discuss a multi-year deal this offseason.
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports, via Twitter, that the Rays were in the mix for Johnny Damon until the end, bidding more than every team but the Tigers.
- Jim Leyland says that Damon's arrival in Detroit won't mean any less at-bats for Carlos Guillen, according to John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press.
- MLB.com's Jordan Bastian breaks down (via Twitter) the early-round draft picks the Blue Jays will now hold this summer, following the Mets' agreement with Rod Barajas.
- Former Brave Greg Norton will head into 2010 as a coach instead of a player for the first time. He'll serve as the hitting coach for the New Orleans Zephyrs, the Marlins' Triple-A affiliate.
- WEEI's Alex Speier takes a look at the first impression made in Red Sox camp by slick-fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias. Many felt the Sox overpaid for the Cuban prospect last summer, but according to Speier, the Cubs were willing to pay even more.
Players To Avoid Arbitration: Tuesday
Noon ET today was the deadline for both the team and player to submit their salary figures for arbitration, however the two sides can come to an agreement at any point before the actual hearing. The hearings are scheduled for the first week of February.
We'll keep track of the players who avoid arbitration today by agreeing to deals here. Make sure you check back in for updates, and be sure to click the "Continue Reading" link to see today's full list of settlements. Yesterday's list can be found here.
- Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels avoided arbitration with Mike Napoli and Reggie Willits by signing the duo to one-year deals. Napoli will earn $3.6MM in 2010 with a $100K bonus if he makes 120 starts. Willits' contract is worth $625K.
- Zach Duke's one-year contract with Pittsburgh is worth $4.3MM with no performance bonuses, tweets Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- The Padres and reliever Mike Adams have agreed to a contract, reports MLB.com's Corey Brock (via Twitter). Brock's follow-up tweet says Adams' deal is worth $1MM, virtually splitting the difference between San Diego's $875K offer and Adams' $1.2MM demands.
- Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that the Twins have agreements in place with all eight of their arbitration eligible players. In a follow-up tweet, Christensen reports that Francisco Liriano agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.6MM and Jesse Crain agreed to a one-year contract worth $2MM.
- Marc Carig of the New Jersey Star-Ledger reports that the Mets avoided arbitration with reliever Sean Green (via Twitter). The one-year deal was worth $975K, according to the New York Daily News' Anthony McCarron.
- The Tigers avoided arb with Gerald Laird and Zach Miner as well according to James Jahnke of The Detroit Free Press. MLB.com's Jason Beck tweets the details on the one-year contracts: Laird will earn $3.95MM, Miner will earn $950K.
- Christensen tweets that the Twins avoided arb with Brendan Harris, signing him to a two year deal worth $3.2MM with another $650K in possible incentives.
- The Tigers and Bobby Seay avoided arbitration according to MLB.com's Jason Beck (via Twitter), agreeing to a one year deal worth $2.475MM.
- Thesier tweets that Matt Guerrier agreed to a one year deal worth $3.15MM with the Twins, avoiding arb.
- Amalie Benjamin of The Boston Globe tweets that the Red Sox have avoided arbitration with Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen, with Delcarmen getting $905K plus incentives according to Joe McDonald of The Providence Journal. Boston avoided arb with Jonathan Papelbon as well.
White Sox Avoid Arbitration With Jenks, Quentin
6:58pm: Jenks will make $7.5MM in 2010 while Quentin will make $3.2MM, according to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. John Danks and Tony Pena are the two remaining arbitration-eligible members of the White Sox.
6:28pm: Bobby Jenks and Carlos Quentin have agreed to terms with the White Sox, according to team VP Scott Reifert (via Twitter).
Around this time last year, Jenks avoided arbitration with the club by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $5.6MM. In 2009 the 28-year-old closer posted a 3.71 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. Despite having a slightly underwhelming campaign, Jenks threw his fastball at an average of 94.8 MPH, his hardest since 2006.
Meanwhile, plantar fasciitis slowed down Quentin in '09, as he played in just 99 games. In his limited action, the left fielder managed to post .236/.323/.456 with 21 HRs. The 28-year-old Quentin earned $550K last season.
Odds & Ends: Damon, White Sox, Wood
Thursday night linkage…
- The Tigers could be in play for Johnny Damon, tweets SI's Jon Heyman. The 36-year-old has a .961 OPS at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park.
- The White Sox formally announced today that they have invited fifteen players to Spring Training – ten of which from within the organization. Outfielder Jordan Danks, younger brother of John Danks, is one of the more notable invitees.
- Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com takes a look at the Indians' bullpen in 2010. It should come as no surprise that Kerry Wood and his hefty contract are unlikely to be moved. Wood is set to earn $10.5MM in 2010 with a vesting option for $11MM in 2011 if he finishes 55 games.
Players Tendered Contracts
Midnight ET is the non-tender deadline, so we'll keep track of all the players who are offered and/or agreed to contracts today in this post. Keep coming back throughout the day for updates.
- Washington tendered contracts to Josh Willingham, Jesus Flores, Wil Nieves, Jason Bergmann, and Sean Burnett.
- Zach Duke was tendered an offer by the Pirates.
- The Marlins reached an agreement with Ronny Paulino. The deal will be for one-year, $1.1MM.
- The Royals avoided arbitration by reaching one year deals with Brian Bannister ($2.3MM) Roman Colon ($660K), and Kyle Davies ($1.8MM).
- Dioner Navarro will remain with the Rays on a one-year deal worth $2.1MM.
- The White Sox will offer contracts to Bobby Jenks, John Danks, Carlos Quentin, and Tony Pena.
- Milwaukee will tender offers to six players: Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey, Jody Gerut, Corey Hart, and Carlos Gomez.
- Toronto will tender an offer to Jeremy Accardo.
- Kevin Correia will remain with the Padres for one-year, $3.6MM.
- The Rangers have signed Esteban German to a 2010 contract. He'll earn $600K in the majors and $200K in the minors. They offered contracts to their other arbitration-eligible players including Scott Feldman, Chris Ray, Frank Francisco, C.J. Wilson, Dustin Nippert, Brandon McCarthy, and Josh Hamilton.
- Tampa Bay avoided arbitration with Lance Cormier by inking him to a one-year deal. The contract will pay Cormier $1.2MM.
- The Twins will tender contracts to all 30 unsigned players on their 40-man roster. That means Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, J.J. Hardy, Brendan Harris, Francisco Liriano, Pat Neshek, Delmon Young, and many more figure to be in the Twins' plans in 2010.
- The following eight Cubs will receive offers from the team: Carlos Marmol, Ryan Theriot, Jeff Baker, Angel Guzman, Sean Marshall, Koyie Hill, Tom Gorzelanny, and Mike Fontenot.
- Atlanta tendered offers to relievers Peter Moylan and Boone Logan.
- The Marlins will tender offers to almost all of their arbitration-eligible players – Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Ricky Nolasco, Cody Ross, Josh Johnson, Leo Nunez, and Renyel Pinto.
- The Astros will tender offers to all remaining arbitration-eligible players. This means Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Lindstrom, Tim Byrdak, Chris Sampson, Jeff Keppinger, and Humberto Quintero are invited back.
- Matt Albers and Cla Meredith have agreed to terms with the Orioles. Albers' deal is worth $.68MM for one-year. Meanwhile, Meredith will recieve $.85MM in 2010.
- Randy Choate agreed to a one year deal. Terms of the deal are one-year, $700K.