Jordan Lawlar

Big Hype Prospects: Encarnacion-Strand, Lawlar, Perez, Merrill, Amador

By Brad Johnson | June 12, 2023 at 11:26pm CDT

Last week, I described how the Reds might muck about with Elly De La Cruz’s service time – if they chose to do so. Instead, they promptly promoted him. It’s always a relief to see deserving prospects promoted in a timely manner.

To date, De La Cruz is batting .364/.481/.636 in 27 plate appearances with a home run and three steals. His 37 percent strikeout rate is the lone blemish. Like the rookie version of Fernando Tatis Jr., De La Cruz has the capacity to perform despite a high strikeout rate.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
199 PA, 17 HR, .362/.427/.734

Next up in the Reds developmental pipeline is Encarnacion-Strand. Known as CES to those who like to write about him without using 28 characters, the powerful corner infielder has punished opposing pitchers to the tune of .542/.633/1.042 (1.675 OPS) in his last six games. He hit seven singles, three doubles, and three home runs over the span.

There are aspects of his game that can temper enthusiasm. There’s a risk his plate approach and high swinging strike rates could lead to high strikeout rates. At this point, he’s utterly eviscerated Triple-A. It’s time to see if those concerns are warranted. The Reds have a minor issue to resolve when it comes to selecting CES’s promotion date. Joey Votto’s rehab will end in about 12 days. His recovery in Triple-A is progressing at a slow pace. Fitting all three of CES, Votto, and Spencer Steer in the regular lineup could prove challenging – and would cost Tyler Stephenson playing time too. Such impediments shouldn’t block Encarnacion-Strand for much longer.

Jordan Lawlar, 20, SS, ARI (AA)
215 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .238/.335/.443

Considered one of the top athletes in the minors, Lawlar’s time in Double-A hasn’t been all that impressive. However, in the last week, he’s hitting .407/.429/.704 in 28 plate appearances. He has a 1.029 OPS over his last 73 plate appearances. It would seem he’s made an adjustment. Reports from public sources note concerns about his hit tool. Every other aspect of his game is expected to be above average. Lawlar is the penthouse apartment of prospects – he has a high floor and higher ceiling. Presently, he is on pace to debut in 2024.

Eury Perez, 20, SP, MIA (MLB)
29 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 2.17 ERA

Perez is a big part of the Marlins recent success. Already 3-1 in just six starts, Perez hasn’t missed a beat since skipping from Double-A to the Majors in mid-May. His only truly sub-par outing occurred at Coors Field. While ERA-estimators (4.34 FIP, 4.68 xFIP) suggest he’s had some luck with run prevention, this is still an impressive performance from a young 20-year-old (he has a mid-April birthday).

A peek under the hood suggests Perez still has a thing or two to learn about using his repertoire. He’s regularly using all four of his pitches. Hitters have performed well against his 97.5-mph heater, but they’ve struggled versus the offspeed stuff. Perez features a “big” fastball. It shouldn’t perform as a below-average offering. It’s possible he’s trying to make pitches that would work in Double-A but not the Majors. As he acclimates, I expect his fastball to grade out better.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
206 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .257/.296/.387

The third-highest ranked “Jackson” on most prospect lists, Merrill was a contender for Top 10 prospect status over the offseason. He’s backed up a bit in the early going. The Midwest League happens to be one of the more difficult hitting environments in the minors. While the above triple-slash probably looks bad, it’s only six percent below the league average. Merrill is a hit-over-power prospect who produces high-quality, low-angle contact. The left-handed hitter draws a Michael Brantley comp from the folks at FanGraphs. Though injuries have reduced his developmental opportunities, he remains on pace to debut by his age 22 season.

Adael Amador, 20, 2B, COL (A+)
228 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .306/.392/.510

Last season, Amador profiled as a flexible utility fielder. While there’s never been any question about his feel for contact, the quality of that contact often raised eyebrows in a bad way. Amador looks “small” on the field, and that likely colored scouting reports. He’s strengthened over the last year to the point where he’s no longer seen as an ideal utility candidate. He’ll likely plant at second base for the long haul – especially with defensively adept Ezequiel Tovar ahead of him at shortstop. The switch-hitting Amador still has adjustments to make if he’s to make full use of spacious Coors Field. He taps most of his contact on the ground, though the quality of said contact has continually improved over time. Amador has more walks than strikeouts in his professional career and is running a 4.4 percent swinging strike rate this season. He should reach Double-A before much longer.

Three More

Andrew Painter, PHI (20): Painter was on pace to debut as a 19-year-old when a sprained UCL ended his Spring Training bid. He threw a 20-pitch bullpen on Saturday. The coming weeks mark an important step in his recovery.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS (20): Mayer’s time in Double-A isn’t going so hot. The shortstop is batting .154/.227/.333 in 45 plate appearances. A recent report on FanGraphs noted a mechanical shortcoming similar to Jarred Kelenic and Spencer Torkelson – namely, an issue with lifting balls low in the zone.

Connor Norby, BAL (23): There’s no question the Orioles have a lot of infield depth. I’m often asked whom I believe they’ll trade from that depth. Norby is my answer. The short right-handed hitter doesn’t have the utility of others in the system. He’s Major League adjacent and primed for a regular role within the next year. However, he profiles more like a core performer than a high-ceiling star.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Adell, Jones, Lawlar, Green, Holliday

By Brad Johnson | April 10, 2023 at 6:50pm CDT

Full-season minor leagues are all active. This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a look at some of the early-season leaders at various levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jo Adell, 24, OF, LAA (AAA)
42 PA, 7 HR, .353/476/1.088

We’ve been here before with Adell, a prospect who isn’t technically a prospect anymore. Over the last three seasons, Adell has amassed 561 plate appearances at Triple-A. In that time, he’s hit 43 home runs. Though he’s yet to make an impact at the Major League level, his batted ball characteristics are encouraging. Adell enjoys above-average exit velocities. He’s battled inconsistency with his launch angle in the Majors, an issue that hasn’t been as apparent in the minors. Optimists, myself included, still believe he can make the adjustments necessary to make a splash on the big stage. Presently, he has one single, four doubles, and seven home runs.

Spencer Jones, 21, OF, NYY (A+)
15 PA, 1 HR, .462/.533/.846

A hulking outfielder with mammoth power, Jones will inevitably be compared to Aaron Judge. The left-handed hitting slugger also has surprising mobility as evidenced by 10 steals in 95 Low-A plate appearances last season. He’s expected to stick in center field despite his size. Scouts fret about his hit tool – much as they once did with Judge. It’s also fair to note that Jones only began to play like a true prospect partway through his draft season. We’re working with a short track record of success. In the low minors, he’s managed a swinging strike rate around 12 percent, a figure similar to that managed by Judge last season and better than most power-over-contact sluggers.

Jordan Lawlar, 20, SS, ARI (AA)
13 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .300/.462/.600

Considered one of the best athletes in the minors, Lawlar could surge to top overall prospect status later this summer. The only drawback with Lawlar is a below-average hit tool which could affect his consistency at the dish. Otherwise, he’s a disciplined batter with burgeoning power and above-average speed. He’s defensively adept. Few prospects are as blue chip as Lawlar. He has a chance to force the Diamondbacks hand this season, much as Corbin Carroll did in 2022. Worth noting, his home venue with Double-A Amarillo is considered one of the friendliest for hitters.

Elijah Green, 19, OF, WSH (A)
13 PA, 2 SB, .500/.548/.583

Green is the sort of prospect fantasy baseball fans love – a legitimate 30/30 threat with room to exceed even those heady aspirations. Over his brief pro career, a span of just 65 plate appearances, he’s made the most of his contact. He’s also susceptible to strikeouts, an issue that has plagued him since he gained prospect fame as a high school junior. Despite more than ample speed to remain in center field, early reports suggest he’ll be better suited to an outfield corner due to poor reads and inefficient routes. Time and effort could salve those concerns. Even if he lands in a corner, his power is more than ample. Now we wait to learn if he makes enough contact. The downside might look something like an outfielder version of Patrick Wisdom.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A)
15 PA, .462/.533/.692

A left-handed hitter, Holliday has the talent and baseball acumen to carve out a long career. While I usually go out of my way to describe how a prospect might fail – public analysis is susceptible to unfettered optimism – there isn’t much to say about Holliday. If things go his way, he could finish 2023 at Double-A with a chance to debut in mid-2024. The Orioles have taken a more temperate approach with their other recent top prospects. Those players, like Gunnar Henderson, required considerable development before they truly looked like Major League players. Holliday seemingly doesn’t require a breakout or new skills development. He’s in want of experience and age-related strength.

Three More

Matt Liberatore, STL (23): Profiled last week, Liberatore’s second turn of the season was a near-mirror replica of his first start. In both cases, he pitched five innings allowing a pair of walks with seven strikeouts. The Cardinals are experiencing some difficulties with their starting pitchers so we might see Liberatore soon.

Chase Silseth, LAA (22): Silseth, like Liberatore, was profiled last week and held opponents scoreless for a second consecutive appearance. Overall, he’s pitched 11 innings with only three hits allowed, three walks, and 13 strikeouts. The Angels are accustomed to running a six-man rotation in the Shohei Ohtani era and could call upon Silseth.

Hao-Yu Lee, PHI (20): Lee has demonstrated discipline, feel for contact, and pull-oriented power. He doesn’t appear on Top 100 prospect lists mainly due to his size and modest mobility. Lee was developed as a utility fielder but could settle permanently at second base this season. He should reach the upper minors by mid-season.

NL West Notes: Nimmo, Rockies, Padres, Lawlar

By Mark Polishuk | October 30, 2022 at 4:14pm CDT

Brandon Nimmo is “on the Rockies’ preliminary wish list” heading into the offseason, according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Given how the Rockies somewhat unexpectedly splurged on Kris Bryant last winter, they shouldn’t be ruled out of making another splashy move, though it will indeed take a big commitment to win a bidding war for Nimmo’s services. As observed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in his recent Rockies-focused Offseason Outlook entry, Colorado is already close to its club-record payroll high, so the Rox may have to go well beyond their usual financial comfort zone to add Nimmo or any other notable free agent (unless they created some payroll space with trades and non-tenders). The Rockies might at least have a geographical advantage if Nimmo wants to play closer to home, as Denver is less than two hours away from Nimmo’s hometown of Cheyenne, Wyoming.

Signing Nimmo would immediately solidify the center field position for the Rockies, bring some left-handed balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and give the club some more offensive pop. While Nimmo has had trouble staying off the injured list during his career, he has always been productive when healthy, and answered some questions about his durability by playing in 151 games with the Mets in 2022. Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 over 673 plate appearances, with 16 homers and a league-best seven triples — his 134 wRC+ was higher than any Rockies player with at least 100 PA last season.

D-backs Notes: Straily, Carroll, Lawlar, Barfield

By Steve Adams | February 24, 2022 at 10:10am CDT

Newly signed Diamondbacks righty Dan Straily chatted with The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan at length about his decision to sign with Arizona and his goals of reestablishing himself as a quality big league starter after a strong two-year run in the Korea Baseball Organization. Straily indicated that he had multiple offers but chose to sign with the D-backs for several reasons, including a good opportunity to earn a roster spot out of the gate and relative proximity (a two-hour flight) to his family’s home in Oregon. He candidly acknowledged that he went to South Korea in need of major improvement — “I didn’t end up in Korea because I was ready to be in the major leagues at the time” — and discussed changes he’s made to his repertoire, including pitch grips, pitch shapes, and an entirely new pitch.

More broadly, fans will want to check out the whole Q&A to get a sense of Straily’s experiences pitching in a foreign league (and of being in the midst of KBO Spring Training when the pandemic broke out), his relationship with incoming pitching coach Brent Strom and the finer details of the work he’s put in to rebuild his career. Notably, Straily added that he considered waiting until the lockout ended to pursue a Major League contract but ultimately chose a minor league opportunity that allowed him to get rolling as quickly as possible. “We felt like it was time for me to get to work,” said Straily.

For those who missed it, Straily also chatted with MLBTR readers back in December. Within, Straily discussed the difference between pitching in the KBO and in MLB, recalled come key early-career advice from notable teammates, and shared plenty of memories from his time in the Majors and in South Korea.

A few more notes on the D-backs…

Buchanan also passes along a pair of updates on some of the system’s top prospects (Twitter link). Outfielder Corbin Carroll is back to 100 percent after last year’s season-ending shoulder surgery. The 21-year-old was the No. 16 overall pick in 2019 and is widely regarded as one of the sport’s top 50 overall prospects, even after his 2021 injury. Carroll sustained the injury on a swing that resulted in a home run in one of the just seven games he played with the Snakes’ High-A affiliate last season. He hasn’t had much of a look in the pros thanks to that surgery and the wiped-out 2020 minor league season, but Carroll owns a .316/.428/.542 batting line with four home runs, ten doubles, nine triples and 21 stolen bases (in 23 tries) through his first 215 professional plate appearances, dating back to 2019. He’s viewed as a possible long-term option in center field for the D-backs, though he has a good bit of development left after effectively missing two full years’ worth of reps in 2020-21.
Also on the mend from shoulder surgery is 2021 top draft selection Jordan Lawlar. The touted young shortstop and No. 6 overall pick sustained a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder not long after signing, limiting his professional debut to just two games with the D-backs’ Rookie-level affiliate. Lawlar, 19, is about a month behind Carroll in his rehab process, per Buchanan, and has not yet been cleared for batting practice. Like Carroll, Lawlar is a consensus top prospect, albeit one who has a bit more variance in terms of scouting reports on his future (which is perhaps to be expected given his lack of pro experience). Keith Law ranked Lawlar No. 31 among MLB prospects, noting that he had the “best package of tools” in the 2021 draft and adding that with Lawlar’s athleticism, speed, arm strength and power potential, he could be in the mix for the sport’s top overall prospect next year.
Josh Barfield spoke with Bill Ladson of MLB.com to discuss his journey from big league infielder, to scout, to his current role as Diamondbacks director of player development. Barfield “never saw [himself] getting into this side of the game” but now relishes his player development role and the challenges it presents. Citing mentors like former D-backs GM Dave Stewart, current GM Mike Hazen and his own predecessor Mike Bell, who tragically passed away last spring after a battle with kidney cancer, Barfield discussed how his love for player development and baseball operations has grown. His ultimate goal has now shifted from his early days as a scout, as he told Ladson he has his sights set on eventually becoming a general manager. While Barfield acknowledged that “there’s not too many of those jobs,” his interactions with Hazen and Stewart, as well as his “ultra-competitive” nature are now driving that ambition.

Diamondbacks Sign First-Rounder Jordan Lawlar

By Mark Polishuk | July 31, 2021 at 4:19pm CDT

4:19PM: The D’Backs have officially announced their agreement with Lawlar.

3:45PM: As originally reported yesterday by John Gambadoro of 98.7FM Phoenix, the Diamondbacks reached an agreement with sixth overall pick Jordan Lawlar. The high school shortstop signed for a hefty $6,713,300 bonus, according to MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis (Twitter links). This is both well over the $5,742,900 assigned slot price for the sixth pick, and the largest bonus for any position player in the 2021 draft.

The highly-touted Lawlar was seen by some as a potential first overall pick, and as a consensus top-five selection, it was perhaps a bit of a surprise that he fell to the D’Backs. Arizona used the remaining money in its $11,271,900 draft pool to sign Lawlar, so the Diamondbacks didn’t exceed the threshold by more than five percent and thus won’t have to surrender any future draft picks.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo each ranked Lawlar as the best prospect of the 2021 draft class, with McDaniel calling Lawlar “the best combination of skills, hit tool and track record” of all the top high school shortstops available this year. The 19-year-old has strong all-around ability, and Collazo feels that Lawlar has a “regular all-star” ceiling if he develops a bit more power.

Draft Signings: 7/30/21

By Darragh McDonald | July 30, 2021 at 9:33pm CDT

Today’s most notable signings from last week’s amateur draft. As always, you can get more background on these players via the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The Diamondbacks signed first-round selection Jordan Lawlar, according to Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline. Lawlar will receive almost $1MM above slot value. As Callis notes, this was the highest number the team could give without exceeding their bonus pool.
Marlins have also signed their first-round selection Kahlil Watson, pending a physical. Callis expects Watson to get well above slot, similar to Lawlar.
The Nationals have also signed their first-round pick Brady House, according to a team announcement. Terms were not disclosed. But the slot value is $4.55MM.
The Red Sox have signed fifth-round pick Nathan Hickey, $1MM on a slot of $410k. As noted by Callis, this is the highest bonus given to any player in rounds 4 through 10 so far this year.

2021 MLB Draft, Day One Results

By Mark Polishuk | July 11, 2021 at 7:52pm CDT

The 2021 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll be keeping track of tonight’s picks as they’re announced. The draft will get underway this evening with the first 36 picks — the first round proper, the compensatory round (which consists of just one pick, the Reds’ extra selection granted when Trevor Bauer rejected their qualifying offer last winter and signed with the Dodgers for more than $50MM), and then Competitive Balance Round A.

Rounds 2-10 (plus the included compensation picks and Competitive Balance Round B) will take place on Monday afternoon, and then rounds 11-20 will take place Tuesday afternoon. This year’s draft is to 20 rounds from five rounds in 2020, and the current expectation is that the 2022 draft will return to its old 40-round format, though the draft structure will be one of many topics under discussion when the league and the players’ union negotiate a new collective bargaining agreement this winter.

For more on these stars of the future, check out the prospect rankings and scouting reports compiled by Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, here is MLB Pipeline’s breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections…

Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, University Of Louisville
Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt University
Detroit Tigers: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall High School (OK)
Boston Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High School (CA)
Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State University
Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas, TX)
Kansas City Royals: Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic High School (CT)
Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land High School (PA)
Los Angeles Angels: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami University (Ohio)
New York Mets: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt University
Washington Nationals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow High School (GA)
Seattle Mariners: Harry Ford, C/OF, North Cobb High School (GA)
Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (FLA)
San Francisco Giants: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State University
Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Miami Marlins: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest High School (NC)
Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, University Of Mississippi
New York Yankees: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois University
Chicago Cubs: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State University
Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge High School (IN)
Cleveland Indians: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina University
Atlanta Braves: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest University
Oakland Athletics: Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks High School (CA)
Minnesota Twins: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional High School (NJ)
San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park High School (MD)
Tampa Bay Rays: Carson Williams, SS/RHP, Torrey Pines High School (CA)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Prep (AL)
Cincinnati Reds (compensatory pick): Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic High School (FL)
Miami Marlins (Competitive Balance Round A): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East High School (NY)
Detroit Tigers (CBR-A): Ty Madden, RHP, University of Texas
Milwaukee Brewers (CBR-A): Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State University
Tampa Bay Rays (CBR-A): Cooper Kinney, 2B, Baylor High School (TN)
Cincinnati Reds (CBR-A): Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State University
Minnesota Twins (CBR-A): Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee High School (WI)

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