MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Were the prospect prices high in this year’s trades? Is this a new normal due to the expanded playoffs creating a seller’s market? (2:15)
- The three-team trade involving the Dodgers, White Sox, Cardinals, Erick Fedde, Miguel Vargas and others (15:40)
- The Rays and Cubs, the buy-sell tightrope and the trade involving Isaac Paredes and Christopher Morel (29:30)
- The Astros acquire Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays for a three-player package and the connection to the the Dodgers acquiring Jack Flaherty from the Tigers but the Yankees reportedly being scared off by his medicals (48:00)
- The Guardians acquire Alex Cobb from the Giants and acquire Lane Thomas from the Nationals (58:35)
- The Orioles acquire Trevor Rogers from the Marlins and acquire Zach Eflin from the Rays (1:09:10)
- Will teams have to be more aggressive in the offseason going forward if the expanded playoffs will make less good players available at the deadline? (1:20:35)
- The Rockies and Angels held onto a lot of trade candidates (1:23:35)
- The Marlins leaned in hard to seller status (1:31:40)
- The Padres built a super bullpen (1:44:50)
- The Braves acquire Jorge Soler from the Giants (1:47:40)
- The Royals acquire Lucas Erceg from the Athletics (1:54:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- Trade Deadline Preview – listen here
- Top Trade Candidates, Hunter Harvey To KC And The Current State Of The Rays And Mets – listen here
- Brewers’ Pitching Needs, Marlins Rumors And The Nats Prepare To Sell – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Braves Acquire Jorge Soler
Jorge Soler is headed back to Atlanta. The Braves reacquired both Soler and reliever Luke Jackson from the Giants on Monday night in what amounts to a salary dump for San Francisco. The Giants acquire minor league infielder Sabin Ceballos and take on the salary for injured reliever Tyler Matzek. Atlanta designated Darius Vines for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.
Atlanta is looking to recreate the magic of their 2021 deadline. The Braves brought in Soler and Eddie Rosario that summer to address an outfield that had lost Ronald Acuña Jr. to a season-ending ACL tear. Those outfield acquisitions drove Atlanta’s run to a championship, with Soler snagging World Series MVP honors behind a three-homer performance in the Fall Classic.
The Braves unfortunately lost Acuña to another ACL tear in late May, leaving them shorthanded in the outfield as the deadline approached. They already took a flier on Rosario, signing him after he was released by the Nationals. That hasn’t worked thus far, as Rosario is hitting .164/.186/.345 in 16 games.
Soler should step into everyday playing time in right field. Adam Duvall has gotten the bulk of the work there since the Acuña injury, but he’s hitting only .188/.251/.336 over 295 plate appearances. Atlanta signed Duvall to work as a short side platoon bat alongside Jarred Kelenic in left field. Duvall has continued to hit left-handed pitching (.261/.361/.533 in 108 plate appearances), but he owns a dismal .153/.190/.239 line while striking out a third of the time against righties.
Duvall can now return to the more limited role which the Braves had envisioned him playing. Kelenic has been pressed mainly into center field action since Michael Harris II went down with a hamstring strain. Once Harris is ready to return, that’ll push Kelenic back to left field.
It’s an abrupt end to what proved a very brief stint for Soler in the Bay Area. The Giants signed him to a three-year, $42MM deal at the start of Spring Training. His tenure started inauspiciously, as he didn’t hit well for two months and missed some time with a minor shoulder strain. The Cuban-born slugger has been on a tear since the calendar flipped to June, hitting .280/.374/.486 over his most recent 204 plate appearances.
Thanks to his cold start, Soler’s season line is still below his typical level. He owns a .240/.330/.419 slash with 12 homers across 392 trips. His 11.2% walk percentage and 24.7% strikeout rate are in line with his normal marks, but Soler’s power output is down from last year’s 36-homer pace. While some of that is surely attributable to the challenge of hitting at Oracle Park, his batted ball metrics have also dropped. Soler’s average exit velocity is down a tick, while his 39.9% hard contact rate is eight percentage points below last year’s figure.
That’s probably part of the Giants’ rationale in getting out from under the contract within a few months of signing it. Atlanta desperately needed to inject some life into an offense that has hit .227/.281/.417 in July. The Braves have hovered around .500 for the better part of three months and have dropped back to the pack in the NL Wild Card race. At 56-49, they’re narrowly in possession of the top Wild Card spot. Only one and a half games separate them from the Diamondbacks, the top non-playoff team at the moment.
While the Braves are clearly reacquiring Soler for his bat, they’ll need to count on him to hold his own defensively. Soler didn’t play a single inning on defense for the Giants. He only made 31 starts in right field (compared to 102 at DH) last year with the Marlins. Marcell Ozuna has the designated hitter spot secured in Atlanta, so the Braves will trust Soler to play more or less every day in the field. Ozuna’s contract contains a $16MM club option for next season, which the Braves probably anticipate exercising. With Soler signed through 2026, they’d have a lot of defensively-limited hitters at that point. That’s a risk they’re prepared to take for the short-term lineup boost.
Atlanta’s “run it back” ethos doesn’t stop with Soler. Jackson was also a member of their ’21 World Series winner. The right-hander had the best year of his career that season, working to a 1.98 ERA across 63 2/3 innings. Jackson’s elbow blew out the next year, sending him for Tommy John surgery that seemed as if it’d end his Braves tenure. He hit free agency during the 2022-23 offseason and landed in San Francisco on a two-year, $11.5MM guarantee.
Jackson spent the first half of last season finishing his Tommy John rehab. He returned to throw 33 1/3 frames of 2.97 ERA ball down the stretch. Jackson quickly landed on the shelf with a lower back strain and hasn’t managed the same caliber of production since returning in late April. He’s carrying a 5.40 earned run average over 35 innings. His 21.9% strikeout percentage and 9.9% walk rate are each slightly worse than average, though he’s getting ground-balls at a strong 51% clip.
The 32-year-old (33 in August) has looked much sharper of late. Jackson is running a 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with three runs allowed in nine innings this month. The velocity on his slider and four-seam fastball are each in line with his career marks. The Braves can plug him into middle relief with the possibility for higher-leverage work alongside Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and A.J. Minter if Jackson’s recent form kicks off a strong second half.
Atlanta is taking on a substantial amount of money for these reunions. There’s no cash changing hands, although Matzek’s inclusion in the deal provides a small financial counterbalance. He’s in the second season of a two-year, $3.1MM contract that has mostly been ruined by elbow problems. Matzek missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made 11 appearances early this season, allowing 11 runs in 10 innings, before going back on the injured list with elbow inflammation. Matzek remains on the 60-day IL with no clear return timetable. His deal contains a $5.5MM team option for next season that is sure to be declined.
The Giants paid Soler a $9MM signing bonus. He’s playing this season on a $7MM salary, around $2.3MM of which is still owed. Atlanta is taking on matching $13MM salaries covering the 2025-26 seasons. Jackson is making $6.5MM this year (roughly $2.1MM remaining) and is guaranteed at least a $2MM buyout on a $7MM option for next year. Matzek is due around $620K through season’s end. The Braves assume nearly $3.8MM in salary commitments for the stretch run plus the $28MM in future guarantees on Soler’s and Jackson’s deals.
RosterResource calculates Atlanta’s CBT number around $282MM. That pushes them past the $277MM third tier of penalization and positions their first-round pick in next year’s draft to drop 10 spots. Atlanta is a second-time payor, so they’re taxed at a 62% rate on spending up to the $297MM mark. The Giants shave nearly $7MM off their tax ledger and have an estimated $244MM mark at RosterResource. They’re still above the $237MM base threshold and may not be looking to drop any more money.
San Francisco also grabs a prospect in the deal. Ceballos, 21, was Atlanta’s third-round pick out of Oregon last year. A righty-hitting third baseman, he has a .259/.353/.354 slash with a 9.8% walk rate and 19.1% strikeout percentage in High-A this season. Baseball America ranked him as the #26 prospect in a weak Atlanta farm system, crediting him with a plus arm and some raw power upside.
As for Vines, he’ll either be traded tomorrow or (more likely) placed on waivers this week. The 26-year-old righty has made eight big league appearances, turning in a 5.45 ERA over 33 innings. He owns a 5.14 earned run average across 14 starts with Triple-A Gwinnett this season.
Mike Rodriguez first reported the Giants were trading Soler to the Braves. Robert Murray of FanSided was first to report Jackson’s inclusion. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Braves were assuming the entire contract.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Giants Place Keaton Winn On Injured List, Activate Jorge Soler
The Giants placed starter Keaton Winn on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 15, due to a forearm strain. San Francisco also optioned infielder Casey Schmitt to Triple-A Sacramento. They reinstated DH Jorge Soler from the 10-day injured list and recalled righty Mason Black in corresponding moves.
Winn has held a spot in the rotation all season. The rookie righty has taken nine starts, tallying 42 1/3 innings of 6.17 ERA ball. Winn pitched well through his first six appearances before surrendering at least five runs in each of his three most recent outings. While a forearm strain is sometimes an ominous precursor to a significant injury, the Giants don’t seem concerned. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters that imaging didn’t reveal any structural damage and the team doesn’t anticipate Winn missing much time (link via Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic).
Black will take the ball tonight against the Rockies opposite Ryan Feltner. Blake Snell is on a rehab stint and could step back into the rotation next week alongside Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks and Kyle Harrison. Black could hold the final spot until Winn returns.
Soler will lead off tonight in his first action since May 4. He missed just under two weeks with a shoulder strain. One of the team’s biggest offseason acquisitions, Soler is out to a modest .202/.294/.361 start to his Giants tenure. Wilmer Flores had taken the majority of the DH at-bats while Soler was sidelined.
Marco Luciano is starting at shortstop tonight and hitting ninth. It’s the first start of the season for the 22-year-old top prospect. With Schmitt headed back to Sacramento, manager Bob Melvin suggested Luciano is going to play regularly (X link via The Athletic’s Eno Sarris). For much of the offseason, it looked as if Luciano would be San Francisco’s first choice at the position. The Giants added veteran defensive specialist Nick Ahmed late in the winter on a minor league deal and wound up carrying him on the MLB roster.
Ahmed hit .236/.274/.291 through his first 36 games. He went on the injured list with a sprained left wrist last week. While the injury isn’t expected to keep him out for too long, Luciano could get a chance to hit his way into the permanent shortstop job. He had a .266/.399/.344 slash line in 158 plate appearances with Sacramento. Luciano has walked at a massive 18.4% rate in Triple-A, but he’s also striking out at an elevated 27.8% clip. He struck out 17 times in 45 plate appearances last year in his first taste of major league action.
Giants Place Jorge Soler On Injured List
The Giants put designated hitter Jorge Soler on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 5, due to a shoulder strain. San Francisco recalled Heliot Ramos from Triple-A Sacramento to take the open roster spot. Ramos is in tonight’s lineup as the DH against Colorado righty Peter Lambert.
Soler inked a three-year, $42MM free agent deal in the middle of February. San Francisco hoped he’d add a needed power presence to the middle of the lineup after hitting 36 homers for the Marlins last season. That isn’t how things have played out thus far. While Soler is tied for the team lead with five home runs, he’s hitting .202/.294/.361 through 136 plate appearances overall. He fell into a particularly poor stretch in the week and a half leading up to the injury. Soler has just three hits in his last 10 games.
It’s not clear how long he’ll be out of action. The Giants could rotate a few players through the DH spot in his absence. Wilmer Flores got a couple starts there while Soler was day-to-day. Ramos, 24, should also get some run now that he’s back in the majors. The former first-round pick has seen his stock fall in recent years because of continued strikeout issues in the upper minors. He’s out to a strong start in Sacramento, though, hitting eight homers with a .296/.388/.565 slash over 134 trips. He’s still striking out at an elevated 27.6% clip, but he’s drawing walks and hitting for power.
While the Giants lose one of their biggest offseason pickups, they could welcome back another in the near future. Blake Snell has been out since April 23 with an adductor strain. The defending NL Cy Young winner will throw a bullpen session tomorrow and is scheduled for a rehab start at Low-A San Jose this weekend, tweets Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Snell has struggled over his first three starts with the Giants. The left-hander has surrendered 15 runs through 11 2/3 innings. He has fanned 12 but allowed 18 hits and issued five walks.
Braxton Garrett Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day
Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett is behind schedule after dealing with some shoulder soreness early in camp and isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day, manager Skip Schumaker announced this morning (X link via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Garrett threw a bullpen session today but the delayed start to his throwing progression likely won’t leave him with sufficient time to be built up for the start of the season. “He feels great now, but I think it’s dangerous when you’re trying to push a guy to make an Opening Day roster.” Schumaker said.
Garrett, now 26, has emerged as a key piece of the Miami rotation over the past couple of seasons, something recently explored by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco. The lefty posted a 3.58 earned run average over 17 starts in 2022, but still found himself sixth on the depth chart going into 2023. Injuries opened a path for him last year and he made the most of that chance, eventually logging 159 2/3 innings over 31 outings with a 3.66 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 4.4% walk rate and 49.1% ground ball rate.
It sounds as though the concern from the club is minimal and Garrett may just miss the first couple of weeks of the schedule. If that proves to be the case, it likely won’t have a huge impact on the club’s plans but there may also be some ripple effects.
The club’s starting depth has made the Marlins a near-constant subject of trade rumors, though there are reasons why that might now be less likely. They traded Pablo López last offseason and Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery late in 2023, putting him out of commission for the entire 2024 campaign. That left the club with a rotation mix consisting of Garrett, Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers coming into this winter.
The rumors around that group continued but the club didn’t line up a deal that they liked enough to pull the trigger on. Various teams around the league are currently discovering pitcher injuries, which perhaps could have lit up the phone in the Miami front office, but they have at least some concern of their own that could perhaps tamp down their appetite for a deal.
With Garrett likely to miss some time, it perhaps opens a rotation spot for A.J. Puk. He’s been an effective reliever over the past couple of years, including posting a 3.97 ERA with a 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 44.2% ground ball rate as a Marlin last year. He’s attempting to return to a rotation role this spring, as he served as an intriguing starting pitching prospect while climbing the minor league ladder.
Spring stats are always to be taken with a grain of salt but Puk has yet to allow a run over his first two outings, tossing five innings with nine strikeouts, three walks and just one hit. He will likely face some kind of workload limit at some point since he has been working as a reliever for a while. He tossed 125 innings the minors in 2017 but then missed all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery and hasn’t hit 70 frames in any season since.
The Marlins also have Max Meyer on hand, though he will also be looking at limitations since he sat out all of 2023 rehabbing from his own Tommy John procedure. Roddery Muñoz and Darren McCaughan are also on the 40-man roster as depth options. If Garrett eventually gets built up and everyone else is healthy, Puk and Rogers have options and could theoretically be sent down for a while to monitor their workloads, as Rogers only tossed 18 innings last year due to biceps and lat injuries.
There are lots of talented options on hand but there’s also a fair amount of questions. The free agent market still features notable pitchers even though the calendar now reads March, so the Fish could reach out if they feel they need to bolster the group. It wouldn’t be realistic to expect a signing of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery but someone like Michael Lorenzen or Jake Odorizzi is more plausible.
RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $102MM right now. That would be the highest of the Bruce Sherman era, as he purchased the club in late 2017 and Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their payroll below nine figures in each season since then.
Perhaps the club has little appetite to add to that figure, as they seemingly made little attempt to retain slugger Jorge Soler. It had been previously reported that the club had some contact with him while he was a free agent but he recently signed with the Giants and contradicted those reports. “We never had communication during the season or after the season, so, I knew I was not coming back,” Soler said, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase.
Giants Notes: Soler, Lineups, Transactions, Slater, Zaidi
The Giants’ three-year, $42MM contract with Jorge Soler was finalized and announced earlier today, so Soler, manager Bob Melvin and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi were now officially able to discuss the deal with the media. Melvin told reporters (including the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser and NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic) that Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores played a key role in helping recruit Soler, as the three players are friends. This helped lure Soler to San Francisco and the West Coast in general, as Soler’s preference was to stay on the East Coast, ideally close to his home in Miami.
Soler will now head west for the first time in his career, after playing with the Cubs, Royals, Braves, and Marlins during his 10 previous Major League seasons. Though Soler’s production has tended to vary wildly over his career, he comes to the Giants on the high of hitting .250/.341/.512 with 36 homers for the Marlins in 2023, bringing some needed pop to San Francisco’s lineup.
This power naturally lends itself to the cleanup spot, and Melvin said that Soler will primarily hit fourth in the batting order and act as the regular designated hitter. New arrival Jung Hoo Lee will hit leadoff and be the everyday center fielder, flanked on the grass by Michael Conforto in left field and Mike Yastrzemski in right. Since both corner outfielders are left-handed hitters, Soler might get some time out of the DH spot when a southpaw is on the mound, though Melvin sees the DH role as a natural way to keep Soler healthy and free of the nagging injuries that have bothered him in recent years.
In general, it seems like the Giants are going with at least slightly more of a regular lineup under Melvin, as opposed to the matchup-centric style of revolving lineups favored by former manager Gabe Kapler. There are still some obvious platoon or timeshare possibilities built into the roster, including Austin Slater‘s role as a right-handed hitting complement to the lefty-heavy starting outfield. However, Melvin said Slater is a little behind the other outfielders in spring work, as Slater spent the offseason recovering from right elbow surgery in October. It doesn’t seem like Slater is in danger of missing Opening Day, though Melvin said Luis Matos will get some extra work as a center fielder.
Since it’s only mid-February, the chance still exists that the Giants might yet add another regular to the mix via free agency or trade. Though some gamesmanship must be acknowledge whenever an executive says they’re happy with their team, Zaidi inferred that further moves to the big league roster were unlikely, if not impossible.
“It’s a little bit more disruptive to add at this point. Anybody who’s a free agent, we’ve theoretically had three and a half months to figure out a deal and if it hasn’t happened yet, at some point organizationally, you just need to turn the page and focus on the players you have,” Zaidi said. “You never rule anything out, whether it’s now or May or June or whatever, but you know, at this point, the calendar makes any further additions unlikely.”
The Giants’ offseasons under Zaidi have largely been defined by the superstar players they didn’t sign (i.e. Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto) than the players they did acquire, leading to some consternation amongst the Bay Area fanbase. Still, Slusser notes that the Giants’ signings of Soler, Lee, Jordan Hicks, and Tom Murphy ranked the team second behind only the Dodgers in free agent spending, and San Francisco also completed a major trade in acquiring Robbie Ray from the Mariners.
Zaidi defended the Giants’ pursuits this winter, saying “we’re going to continue to take the big swing in free agency when it makes sense and some of the guys that we’ve pursued and have landed are top five-10 players in baseball. I’ve said this about a couple of them: I’m always surprised there aren’t more teams in on them rather than that maybe they wind up somewhere else. You expect things like this to be competitive and we always feel like we have to be able to pivot when things don’t work out. We think we’ve added some exciting players and I think we feel that energy in camp.”
Giants Sign Jorge Soler
Feb 18: The Giants officially announced Soler’s deal this afternoon. The slugger will received a $9MM signing bonus in addition to $7MM in salary for the 2024 season and $13MM salaries for each of the 2025 and 2026 seasons. To make room for Soler on the club’s 40-man roster, right-hander Austin Warren was placed on the 60-day injured list.
Feb 13, 6:58AM: Soler’s contract with San Francisco guarantees the slugger $42MM, according to Mike Rodriguez (X Link). The deal is a nearly exact match with MLBTR’s prediction of a three-year, $45MM pact for Soler back in November as part of our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list.
1:02AM: The Giants have agreed to a three-year deal with free agent designated hitter/outfielder Jorge Soler, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The agreement is pending a physical. Soler is a client of the MVP Sports Group.
Talks between Soler and the Giants have been going on for at least the past week. As of this morning, the Giants were still reported to be in the mix but had balked at Soler’s request for a third guaranteed season. That, it seems, has changed over the course of the day.
Soler, 32, opted out of the final season of his three-year, $36MM deal with the Marlins back in November after belting 36 home runs while hitting .250/.341/.512 on the season (126 wRC+). Soler posted the second-best walk and strikeout rates of his career at 11.4% and 24.3%, respectively, and Statcast pegged him in the 81st percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
It’s the type of power profile that the Giants have lacked in recent years. The 2023 Giants ranked 19th in the Majors in home runs (174), 24th in runs scored (674), 28th in average (.235), 24th in on-base percentage (.312) and 27th in slugging percentage (.383). The Giants notoriously haven’t had a player deliver a 30-homer season since Barry Bonds in 2004, and they’ve only had one 20-homer hitter in their lineup in each of the past two seasons (Joc Pederson with 23 in 2022 and Wilmer Flores with 23 last year).
Soler brings a wholly different brand of power. Last year’s 36 big flies were only the second-most he’s hit in a season. Soler paced the American League with 48 homers for the Royals back in 2019, and while injuries have limited him to just two 30-homer seasons in his career, he’s averaged 32 homers per 162 games played in his career. Dating back to that 2019 breakout, Soler ranks 17th among 302 qualified hitters with a .248 isolated power mark (slugging minus batting average). Overall, he’s batted .240/.331/.488 during that time.
The path Soler takes to get to his production isn’t the most straightforward. He’s a streaky hitter in-season and a volatile one from a year-to-year standpoint, with his 2019 and 2023 output teetering on excellent while his 2022 numbers were decidedly below average. Even in the 2021 season that saw Soler catch fire following a trade to Atlanta and go on to be named World Series MVP, he was hitting just .198/.288/.377 in 360 plate appearances at the time Kansas City traded him. He slashed .269/.358/.524 following the change of scenery. A three-year deal with Soler figures to come with its share of peaks and valleys, but he’s the type of bat who can near-singlehandedly carry a lineup for brief stretches, given his top-of-the-scale power.
Though he has plenty of experience in the outfield corners, Soler isn’t likely to see much time there in San Francisco. His defensive grades have continue to decline over the years, and the Marlins only played him sparingly in right field — including just 241 innings last year. Soler has only twice reached 500 defensive innings played in a season. He’ll serve as the Giants’ primary designated hitter, though it’s possible he’ll make occasional appearances in left or right field.
That’s particularly true given that Soler does offer a nice right-handed complement to left-handed corner outfielders like Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski. Production against left-handed pitchers, in particular, was a problem for the 2023 Giants (.245/.306/.376). Soler’s mammoth .277/.393/.688 output against lefties last year represents an enormous boost to San Francisco in such situations.
Adding Soler to the lineup likely cuts into the playing time for J.D. Davis and/or Wilmer Flores against right-handed opponents, but that’s a trio of potent right-handed bats to be able to trot out against opposing southpaws. New backup catcher Tom Murphy (career 126 wRC+ against lefties) should help in that regard as well, as will a full season of switch-hitting catcher Patrick Bailey, who feasted off lefties but struggled against righties. Broadly speaking, the San Francisco lineup looks far more equipped to handle left-handed pitching than last year’s club.
At $14MM per year for Soler, the slugger’s decision to opt out his final year and $13MM in Miami was overwhelmingly the right call. Miami opted not to issue a qualifying offer to Soler, so they won’t receive any draft compensation for his departure, nor will San Francisco be required to forfeit a draft pick or any international money.
Prior to the deal with Soler, San Francisco’s rough $155MM payroll was more than $33MM from their 2023 levels and more than $46MM south of the team’s franchise-record payroll level. That leaves plenty of room for the Giants front office to remain aggressive in free agency, even if ownership isn’t willing to set a new highwater mark on player payroll. That’s true even if the dollars are evenly distributed over the life of the three-year term, but if the deal is at all backloaded there’ll be perhaps a bit more to work with for the upcoming season.
To that end, it’s worth noting that the Giants have been linked to high-profile names like Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery in recent weeks. A deal with Soler shouldn’t preclude them from continuing those pursuits, although with Soler now penciled in as the primary DH, a Chapman signing could perhaps be a precursor to a trade of J.D. Davis. Time will tell whether that’s worth pondering much or goes down as one of many unanswered offseason hypotheticals. Regardless, it seems quite likely that Soler’s signing won’t be the Giants’ last significant addition this winter.
MLBTR Podcast: Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Giants to sign Jorge Soler (1:25)
- The Brewers to sign Gary Sánchez (11:15)
- The Pirates to sign Yasmani Grandal (18:55)
- The Padres to sign Jurickson Profar (23:35)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Which teams do you think have a chance to exceed expectations this year like the Diamondbacks and Reds did last year? (26:00)
- Matt Chapman to the Cubs for one year and $27MM plus a $30MM mutual option for 2025 with a $3MM buyout, who says no? (30:40)
- Does Carlos Santana make the Twins better? (34:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended – listen here
- The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans – listen here
- The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Red Sox Pursuing Outfield Additions
As players begin arriving to spring training, the Red Sox are still looking to add to their roster. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that the Sox have been in active pursuit of outfield options recently, suggesting a right-handed bat is the preferable addition. (Notably, he adds that Boston was not “meaningfully” involved in Jorge Soler‘s market in the late stages of his free agency before he agreed to a three-year deal with the Giants.)
A right-handed outfield bat is a generally sensible addition for the Sox, whose current outfield alignment features three lefty bats (Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida) and one right-handed bat (Tyler O’Neill). Manager Alex Cora said today that Yoshida will see the most time at designated hitter of any of his current outfielders, but he’ll still see some work in the field as well (X link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe).
Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela will get a chance to make the Opening Day roster as well and would add a right-handed bat to the bunch, but it’s also possible he’s ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season. Rafaela made his MLB debut last year but posted a tepid .241/.281/.386 slash with a 31% strikeout rate in 89 plate appearances. He’s still only played 48 games at the Triple-A level, and good as they were (.312/.370/.618 in 219 plate appearances), that’s a relatively small sample. He’ll need to earn a spot with a strong showing in camp. If Rafaela does make the roster, Cora noted that he’ll be the primary center fielder (X link via the Globe’s Alex Speier). “The defensive game is elite,” Cora said of Rafaela. “It’s a game-changer.”
As things stand, the Red Sox have a pair of right-handed outfield options on the bench in Rob Refsnyder and Bobby Dalbec. Refsnyder is a 32-year-old journeyman but does have a solid track record against lefties, including a .308/.428/.400 slash in 145 plate appearances last season. Dalbec, 28, has a minor league option remaining but has long seemed like a change-of-scenery candidate as a former top infield prospect who doesn’t have a clear role with the club. Neither player came up as an outfielder, and neither is considered to be an especially strong defender on the grass.
If the Sox prefer to turn to the free agent market, there are plenty of righty bats still available. Randal Grichuk, Michael A. Taylor, Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall all remain unsigned. Pham (2022) and Duvall (2023) have both played with the Red Sox recently, though they were acquired under now-former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s watch. All four members of that quartet have experience across the outfield, although at this point only Taylor is considered an above-average option in center field (where he rates as one of the game’s premium defenders at the position).
While none of the free agents remaining in this tier of players is a star by any stretch of the word, each is affordable and can fill a clear role on a number of teams. As such, the Sox have competition for signing any of the bunch. The D-backs, for instance, have been tied to Grichuk, Pham and Duvall as they seek a right-handed complement to Joc Pederson at designated hitter. The Twins have been on the lookout for a righty outfield bat for much of the offseason after seeing Taylor become a free agent. Minnesota has reportedly shown interest in Duvall, specifically, but has had interest in Taylor throughout free agency as well. The Phillies could conceivably be in the mix for an outfield bat after an injury to Brandon Marsh. The Padres have considered a reunion with Pham.
Speaking of the Padres, it’s at least worth pointing out that San Diego has reportedly expressed interest in a trade involving Duran, though there’s never been any indication the two parties are close to a deal. But as the Sox look for ways to add to their collection of outfielders, it bears mentioning that the addition of a free agent could at least make the idea of moving Duran a bit more palatable. Boston would presumably prefer MLB-ready pitching in such a swap, however, and that’s an area the Padres themselves are also a bit thin, which complicates the scenario.
The Red Sox currently project for a $177.5MM payroll with about $198MM worth of luxury tax considerations, per Roster Resource. That $177.5MM projection is more than $20MM away from last year’s year-end payroll of about $199MM and miles away from the franchise-record $236MM, set back in 2019. Over the past month, the Red Sox have been specifically connected to Duvall, Pham and first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper (who is reportedly nearing a decision in free agency).
Latest On Jorge Soler
Free agent slugger Jorge Soler has seen his potential landing spots dwindle a bit, with previously reported suitors like the Blue Jays (Justin Turner), Mariners (Mitch Garver) and Diamondbacks (Joc Pederson) all going in different directions to sign their primary designated hitters this winter. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi touched on Soler’s market this morning (video link), reporting that the 31-year-old is still seeking a three-year contract in free agency. The length of the pact has been a hold-up, as Soler has had teams willing to go to two years but has yet to be offered a guaranteed third season.
The Giants were reported to be in talks with Soler last week, and Morosi suggests they’re among the teams comfortable at two years but balking at the third season. Other teams that have been tied to Soler this offseason include the Red Sox, Nationals and, to a much lesser extent, the incumbent Marlins. Soler himself said last month that Miami hasn’t shown real interest in a reunion, however. The D-backs, notably, are still looking for a right-handed bat to pair with the lefty-swinging Pederson, but it’s hard to imagine Soler signing anywhere without a clear path to full-time at bats. A timeshare with Pederson at DH plus some occasional corner outfield work would be a surprise.
That’s due in no small part to the fact that Soler is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. He belted 36 home runs for the Fish in 2023, slashing a robust .250/.341/.512 (126 wRC+). Long known as a strikeout-prone player, Soler’s 24.3% strikeout rate last year was the second-lowest of his career and only 1.6 percentage points higher than the league average. His 11.4% walk rate, meanwhile, was the second-highest of his career. He paired that improved K/BB profile with his typical brand of loud contact. Soler averaged 91.3 mph off the bat, hit 48% of his batted balls at 95mph or greater, and barreled 15% of his batted balls — all ranking in the 81st percentile of MLB hitters or better, per Statcast.
Spring training’s looming start date could put some added pressure on Soler and other free agents to consider a drop in asking price, although that cuts both ways. Teams seeking offensive upgrades have watched alternative options come off the board and have fewer avenues to pursue. The onset of camp also generally brings about quite a few injury scenarios of note, any of which could radically alter the market for Soler and other free agents. An injury for someone on one of Soler’s rumored suitors (Giants, Red Sox, etc.) or even on a contending club that hasn’t yet shown interest could prove to be a catalyst for his market, just as we saw with the Astros and Josh Hader (who signed in Houston following a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman).
Soler opted out of the final season of a three-year, $36MM contract with the Marlins at the beginning of the offseason, turning down a $13MM player option. That he’s had teams willing to offer two years suggests he indeed had more earning power than that $13MM on the open market, but many free agents have seen muted interest as teams throughout the league deal with uncertainty regarding their television contracts. A multi-year deal still seems likely for Soler. Speculatively speaking, however, if no three-year pact presents itself and the two-year interest he’s received has been at average annual rates that aren’t to his liking, Soler could follow Teoscar Hernandez and max out on the largest one-year commitment he can find, then take another shot at free agency next winter.