Looking For A Match In A Juan Soto Trade
We’re only six weeks removed from Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo publicly declaring that he had no intention of trading star outfielder Juan Soto. Rizzo’s comments seemed earnest — both at the time and even in light of recent reports — as the organization clearly had every intention of trying to extend the 23-year-old and build around him long-term. The Nationals reportedly offered Soto a guaranteed $440MM recently, which he rebuffed, presumably due to a combination of factors.
Firstly, the 15-year term of the deal left Soto’s $29.33MM annual value well shy of the rate at which the game’s brightest stars are paid. Whatever the size of the guarantee, Soto is going to be set for generations, but as we saw with Aaron Judge and the Yankees late in Spring Training, there’s a symbolic element to being paid at rates commensurate with (or in excess of) the Mike Trouts and Gerrit Coles of the game.
It also can’t help that the Nats are mired in a rebuild that leaves their near-term outlook bleak, even with Soto. The slugger recently told reporters that after getting a taste of winning in 2019 when the Nats took home a World Series title, he wants more. That looks unlikely in D.C. at any point in the near future. And with the team reportedly up for sale, Soto can’t know who’ll be signing the checks, what their long-term vision will be, and even who’ll be building the future rosters. Rizzo is under contract through the 2023 season, but new ownership groups often (albeit not always) come in and restructure the front office with their own hires.
With the Nationals now open to trade proposals for Soto, an already interesting deadline becomes one of the most fascinating in history. Soto has been so good for so long that it’s easy to forget he’s not yet celebrated his 24th birthday. Paradoxically, even while expressing how long he’s dominated opposing pitchers, it’s surprising to look up and see that he still has two full seasons of club control remaining beyond the current season. Soto was so good, so immediately, that it feels like he should be well into his 20s and/or on the very cusp of free agency. Neither is true.
A talent of this magnitude hasn’t hit the trade market this early in his career and with this much of a track record since the then-Florida Marlins sent Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers at the 2007 Winter Meetings for a six-player package headlined by Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Both Maybin and Miller had been top-10 selections in the two prior drafts, and both were ranked inside Baseball America’s top 10 overall prospects in all of MLB at the time.
And yet, even that comparison may fall a bit shy. Heading into his age-25 season at the time of the trade, Cabrera was legitimately amazing — a perennial .300+ hitter with easy 30-homer power who had been, by measure of wRC+, 39 percent better than league average with the bat at that point in his career. Soto, however, will be 24 for the entirety of the 2023 season. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 55 percent better than the average hitter to this point in his career.
Obviously, the two situations differ beyond that fairly rudimentary comparison. The Marlins also sent Dontrelle Willis to the Tigers, which impacted the calculus of that deal. Speculatively speaking, the Nationals could try to dump Patrick Corbin on an acquiring team, but we don’t know whether that’ll be the case. (Stephen Strasburg has a full no-trade clause, for those thinking even bigger, which makes that scenario unlikely.) More broadly, the manner in which front offices value prospects has changed over the years. We shouldn’t look to the Cabrera deal as a concrete template, but it’s a the closest general barometer of how painful it might be to acquire a talent of Soto’s caliber at this juncture of his career.
Because Soto is such an elite talent, it stands to reason that virtually every team in baseball will at least be checking in. And, because he’s controlled so far beyond the current season, fans shouldn’t expect that only clear-cut buyers will be in the market for him. Teams like the Rangers and Cubs might not be in the playoff chase this year, but you can bet they’ll still be getting a feel for what it might cost them to acquire Soto.
The best fits for Soto are going to be teams with strong farm systems — be they balanced and deep or top-heavy with a few star names up front and more scarcity in the middle tiers. There are 29 other clubs who’ll have varying degrees of interest, although not everyone is going to be a legitimate fit.
Take the Athletics, for instance. Oakland tore down the bulk of its roster over the winter, which means they technically have the payroll space and a newly bolstered minor league system, but Soto could earn $55-60MM in arbitration over the next two seasons. The A’s would have little chance of extending him, and next year isn’t likely to be competitive for them anyhow. It’s a similar story over in Cincinnati, where the Reds have been aggressively cutting payroll.
The Pirates are still in a rebuild, and it’s unlikely ownership would ever sign off on the type of money it’d take to pay Soto, even when looking only at his arbitration seasons. The Marlins spent some money this offseason and have a wealth of pitching talent to dangle, but emptying your farm to a division rival to acquire a player whom they’d have almost no shot at extending seems like a reach. The Royals feel similar to the Marlins — a small-payroll team that’s trying to win but wouldn’t make this type of fiscal splash. They’ve never given out a contract larger than Salvador Perez‘s four-year, $82MM deal.
Composition of farm system is going to matter greatly in Soto talks, as well. The White Sox are an obvious on-paper fit for Soto, but they’re widely regarded as having the worst system in the game. That doesn’t mean their minor league ranks are devoid of talent, but it’d be hard for them to match the value offered by other teams. They could swing things by including Major League talent — I’m sure the Nats would love to get their hands on Michael Kopech — but that’s always less likely.
Other teams in similar scenarios include the Phillies, Brewers, Angels, Astros and Braves. The Halos and ‘Stros landed 28th and 29th in the sport in the offseason rankings from both Baseball America and MLB.com. The Braves entered the season widely regarded in the bottom-third or bottom-quarter of the teams in this area, and they’ve since seen their top two prospects (Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider) graduate to the big leagues.
Teams Nearing the End of a Rebuild Cycle
Orioles: Were it not for the overwhelming bad blood between the Nats and Orioles stemming from the years-long dispute over rights fees from MASN, this fit would be cleaner than most might think. Baltimore’s longstanding rebuild has left their farm system flush with high-end prospects and left the long-term payroll in pristine standing. There’d be room to shell out a huge prospect haul while still building around Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and others, and the blank-slate payroll would give the O’s a legitimate chance to test the threshold of Soto’s willingness to bet on himself in year-to-year fashion. This one isn’t happening, but it’s fun for O’s fans that the rebuild has even reached a point where it’s worth kicking around.
Tigers: It’s doubtful the team that made this work with Miguel Cabrera would recreate history, but it’s fun to think about. Outfielder Riley Greene recently ascended to the No. 1 spot on Baseball America’s list of the game’s best prospects, and the Tigers have a slew of both prospects and young Major Leaguers who could be pieced together. This would be more plausible if the current roster were playing at a level the front office hoped for heading into the season, however.
Cubs: The Cubs made some notable additions this past offseason, signing Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki to multi-year deals. Those only cost the team money, however, and parting with the overwhelming slate of young talent that would be necessary to pry Soto loose would run contrary to the team’s current efforts to restock the farm system. The Cubs are a major-market team with the capacity for $200MM+ payrolls, so we probably shouldn’t expressly rule out the idea that they could sell off this summer’s chips (Willson Contreras, David Robertson, Mychal Givens, perhaps Ian Happ) and simultaneously pivot to acquire a new cornerstone around which to build … but it certainly feels like more of a reach than the following teams.
Payroll-Conscious Long Shots
Rays: Before you laugh off the notion of the Rays gutting the farm and paying Soto upward of $60MM from 2023-24, recall that they just doled out an 11-year extension to burgeoning star Wander Franco and then made a legitimate run at Freddie Freeman in free agency, offering a reported $150MM in guaranteed money. Tampa Bay almost certainly wouldn’t spend to the necessary levels to hammer out a Soto extension, but they were willing to take on a hefty Freeman salary and only have $21MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s payroll.
Guardians: They shocked us once by extending Jose Ramirez. It’s almost impossible to fathom Cleveland signing Soto long term, but the team that acquires him doesn’t need to sign him long term. Installing Soto into the heart of the batting order alongside Ramirez for the next 26 months would give AL Central opponents bona fide nightmares, and the Guards have just $19MM on next year’s books and $25MM on the books in 2024. They also have one of the game’s very best farm systems, meaning they could both put together a tough-to-rival package to tempt the Nats while simultaneously supplementing Soto’s ever-growing salary with league-minimum (or close to it) talent.
D-backs: Arizona has one of the game’s best farm systems, headlined by outfield prospect Corbin Carroll and last year’s No. 6 overall pick Jordan Lawlar. The D-backs also have just $59MM on the books in 2023, $38MM in 2024 and $17.6MM in 2025 (which would be the first season of a highly improbable Soto extension). The organization’s hopes of competing in the NL West in the near future are low, however, which makes emptying the tank for Soto a tough sell at present.
Twins: The Twins bumped payroll to franchise-record levels to sign Carlos Correa at $35.1MM per year over an opt-out laden three-year pact, so maybe it’s unfair to put them in the “payroll conscious” bucket. However, barring a scenario where Correa surprises and forgoes his opt-out, the $55-60MM Soto stands to make in 2023-24 would be the most Minnesota has ever paid a player over a two-year term, and an extension would have to be at or in excess of Correa’s annual price range but more than four times the length. Minnesota has a decent farm system, but this just doesn’t feel feasible.
Rockies: Perhaps “payroll-conscious” is a misnomer here, too, given that Colorado has run its payroll as high as $145MM in the past. But the Rox already have $110MM on next year’s books, and that’s before Charlie Blackmon picks up a likely $18MM player option. Between that and the team’s arbitration class, the Rockies are going to be within arm’s reach of franchise-record spending before making a single addition. They’ve seen several prospects take big steps forward this year, placing five names on BA’s latest Top 100 list, and ownership seems convinced there’s a winning core here. I wouldn’t spend too much time dwelling on this possibility, but Soto at Coors Field would be fun.
The Best Fits (in no particular order)
Padres: Nary a marquee trade candidate hits the market without president of baseball ops AJ Preller pushing to acquire said superstar. Preller’s Padres are “in” on everything, and with names like C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III and more to dangle at the Nats — plus a glaring corner outfield need — the fit is too hard to ignore. I had the Friars in the “long shots” bucket while constructing much of this draft, but it’s just too on-brand for the Padres to find a creative way to dump Eric Hosmer and/or Wil Myers in order to bring in Soto while ducking just under the luxury-tax threshold. Frankly, bailing Preller out on either Hosmer or Myers would be a nice way for Rizzo to try to squeeze even more out of the Padres’ system.
It’s also fair to wonder whether Soto might be deemed such an exception that ownership just green-lights the move and pays the luxury tax for a second straight year. San Diego has plenty of luxury room in 2023 (at least for now), so ownership could reasonably feel confident that they’d be able to duck back under the line and avoid a three-year penalty.
Dodgers: For all their spending, the Dodgers only have $85MM on the books next year and $99MM in luxury commitments. No, the outfield isn’t a true “need” — at least not relative to the bullpen — but the Dodgers have the payroll and the perennially excellent farm system to be in on every opportunity like this. It’s how they landed Mookie Betts from the Red Sox and how they came away from last year’s deadline with another pair of Nationals stars: Trea Turner and Max Scherzer.
Los Angeles placed a whopping seven prospects on Baseball America’s recently published midseason Top 100 list, so there’s no doubting they have the requisite talent to get it done. They also took on half of David Price’s deal to grease the wheels on the aforementioned Betts trade, and that commitment to Price is up at season’s end. If the Nats really want to attach Corbin to Soto, the Dodgers are positioned as well as anyone to make that work.
Yankees: The Yankees don’t know how much longer Judge will be patrolling their outfield after he, like Soto, rejected the team’s final extension offer. Acquiring Soto would almost certainly cost the Yankees top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe and then some, but the notion of pairing Judge and Soto in the middle of the lineup — even if only for a few months — would soften that sting. Acquiring Soto would also give the Yankees something of a safety net should Judge find offers well beyond owner Hal Steinbrenner’s comfort level.
Of course, adding Soto would double as quite the sales pitch to keep Judge in the Bronx. It’s tough to imagine a team paying Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Judge and Soto the type of annual salaries that quartet will command through 2027 — the final season of Stanton’s deal — but the Yankees are one of the few that could plausibly do so. Including Volpe in just about any scenario has understandably been a nonstarter for the Yanks, but they don’t have another prospect on his level, and it seems likely that at least one other club would offer a prospect of that caliber to pry Soto away.
Rangers: Texas didn’t sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray to then sit back and hope the rest of a competitive team would bubble up from the farm system. The Rangers are going to be aggressive again this winter — but why wait until then? The outfield at Globe Life Field is bleak beyond Adolis Garcia, whose own woeful OBP issues give the Rangers all the more need to add some steady walks and hits to the lineup. Seager and Semien are going to cost $55-60MM annually on their own, and adding Soto’s final two arb years (plus any potential extension seasons) would give them $80-90MM annually in commitments to just three players. That’s not ideal, but Texas just got a new park and has run $160-165MM payrolls in the past.
Blue Jays: Soto’s prodigious bat would be the perfect cure for a Blue Jays lineup that has surprisingly underwhelmed. Toronto’s lineup skews heavily to the right side of the plate, too, which makes Soto all the more appealing for general manager Ross Atkins and his staff. If there’s a “problem” for the Jays, it’s that their clear top prospect, Gabriel Moreno, shares a position with young Keibert Ruiz, whom the Nationals hope will be their own catcher of the future. Of course, Ruiz hasn’t fully established himself yet, and having a pair of uber-talented catchers would fall squarely into the “nice problem to have” bucket for Washington.
Toronto’s system has been thinned out by trades for Jose Berrios and Matt Chapman (among others), which leaves them with probably the thinnest system of the teams mentioned in this “best fits” section.
Mets: Nats fans would recoil at the idea of Soto ever donning a Mets uniform, and the front office probably doesn’t feel all that differently. However, the Steve Cohen-owned Mets have shown a willingness to outspend any and all parties when the opportunity to acquire elite talent presents itself, and while their system isn’t as deep as some other top fits, they do have a handful of high-end prospects who could conceivably lead a package for Soto.
SNY’s Andy Martino recently wrote that the Nationals are intrigued by names like Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, though they’d likely seek even more talent beyond that trio. Acquiring Soto would put the Mets into the newly created fourth tier of luxury-tax penalization.
Mariners: President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto never met a blockbuster trade scenario he didn’t like. The Mariners have thinned out their once-vaunted farm through graduations and trades in recent years, but the likes of Noelvi Marte, George Kirby and Matt Brash could form the compelling top end of an offer. Seattle has $67MM guaranteed to the 2023 roster, $66MM in 2024 and $49MM in 2025.
A Soto acquisition would be an incredible bow on top of a 14-game winning streak, and pairing him in the Seattle outfield alongside the burgeoning star he toppled in the Home Run Derby — Julio Rodriguez — would give the M’s one of baseball’s brightest one-two punches.
Red Sox: Would the same ownership group that balked at extending Betts turn around and give Soto over $100MM more than what Betts ultimately signed for in Los Angeles? Soto is younger, so perhaps the comfort with a mega-deal would be greater. The Sox also have plenty of high-end prospects to headline a deal (Marcelo Mayer, Brayan Bello, Triston Casas among them). They have $92MM on the 2023 books but will see that drop to $72MM once Xander Bogaerts opts out of his deal at season’s end. The contract status of Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers are already major talking points in Boston, and Soto would add a third source of hand-wringing to that list. This, however, has been a risk-averse ownership group and front office for several years now.
Cardinals: Jordan Walker is the type of headline prospect you’d expect to see in a return for Soto, and the Cards could add value by including a current outfielder (e.g. Dylan Carlson) and several other pitching prospects. The notion of Walker, Carlson, Matthew Liberatore and then some might not sit well with St. Louis fans, but the Cards have a solid crop of quality prospects to pique Washington’s interest. Plus, if they were to seriously entertain a Soto extension, the first season of that theoretical contract would dovetail with the expiration of Paul Goldschmidt’s contract, which will trim an annual $26MM salary off the books.
Giants: The Giants have spent at $200MM levels in the past, but they have just $92MM on the books for the 2023 season. That’ll drop by another $22.5MM if Carlos Rodon opts out of his contact as expected, and Anthony DeSclafani is the only player with a guaranteed contract on the books for 2024. It’s a near blank slate financially, which would afford the Giants among as much opportunity as any club to offer a potential long-term deal. San Francisco has a pair of prospects — Marco Luciano and Kyle Harrison — who ranked among the top 25 in BA’s recent update, while young catcher Joey Bart could hold appeal as a secondary piece. San Francisco is likely to jockey with the Dodgers and Padres atop the NL West for the next few seasons, putting them in a firm win-now window.
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It bears emphasizing that a Soto trade will be immeasurably complicated, even if the Nats are only parting with Soto in the deal. Add in an appealing reliever (e.g. Kyle Finnegan) or even more difficult, a contract like that of Corbin, and the deal is the type that requires overwhelming levels of effort to reach. The Aug. 2 trade deadline is all of two weeks away right now, and while it’s fair to imagine that Rizzo & Co. have had some preliminary talks already, the vast majority of the heavy lifting in any deal is unlikely to have been completed as of yet.
All of that is to say that while the Nats will be open to trades involving Soto, fans shouldn’t view a deal as inevitable. Waiting until the offseason wouldn’t radically reduce Soto’s value, and it’d open up the possibility of teams being able to include talent selected in this summer’s draft as part of the return, thus creating myriad new possibilities for the Nationals to ponder. By that point, there could also be further clarity regarding the potential sale of the team, and with a new owner would come the potential for a new valuation for Soto’s long-term value.
Soto will be one of the most hotly debated names in the game in the next 14 days, but a trade isn’t a given.
Note: The initial version of this post omitted the Giants in error. They’d intended to be included among the best fits; the post was updated after publishing.
Nationals To Entertain Trade Offers For Juan Soto After He Rejects $440MM Offer
TODAY: The Nationals aren’t planning to increase their offer beyond $440MM, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty writes. Soto is reportedly looking for a deal that is at least a decade long, gives him the most guaranteed money in baseball history, and gives him an AAV at least close to the highest average annual values. In a Twitter thread, Dougherty suggests that the Nats could come closer to Soto’s demands by offering $440MM over 12 or 13 years rather than 15, though that scenario might not be palatable to the Nationals for luxury tax reasons.
JULY 16, 3:04PM: While the Nationals’ offer didn’t have any deferred money, the $440MM was “heavily backloaded” into the offer’s last six seasons, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. The offer’s backloaded nature played a part in Soto’s decision, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post, and other factors included the relatively low AAV and the uncertainty surrounding the Nats’ ownership situation.
11:21AM: In a somewhat shocking development, the Washington Nationals will now listen to trade offers for transcendent superstar Juan Soto, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Soto reportedly rejected a $440MM extension offer, prompting the change of heart on the Nationals’ part.
The Nationals have long held the position that they would not be open to trading Soto, their 23-year-old superstar, who is already firmly listed among the best hitters in baseball. The Nationals have some time to make a decision, as Soto is under team control for another two seasons beyond this one. As of right now, however, the team is among the worst in baseball, and their farm system continues to be understocked.
All that said, the Nats have made consistent efforts to come to a contract extension with Soto’s agent Scott Boras, with no success. According to Rosenthal, the latest such offer – the third offer from the Nationals’ side – was for 15 years and a total of $440MM. Perhaps more shocking than the number itself is that the Nats did not include any deferred money in the deal. The Nationals are well known for deferring money in most of their long-term deals. That they were willing to avoid that practice shows some bend on the Nats’ part, but it was not enough to consummate a deal.
If those numbers are correct, the Nats’ offer would have given Soto an AAV of $29.33MM over that 15-year span, which falls a little shy of some of the game’s top contracts. While that’s nothing to scoff at, it would not be a record-setting number. The total dollar amount would, however, top MLB’s largest contracts.
The deal would have carried Soto through to his 38th birthday, effectively locking him in as a National for the entirety of his career. It’s certainly a large chunk of money to offer, but Soto might not be so ready to put a cap on his career earnings – even such a lofty one. Soto is currently making $17.1MM this season, with another two arbitration raises yet to come in his final two seasons. If he stays healthy, he’ll easily make more than $29.33MM AAV by his final season before free agency.
With their latest offer rejected, the Nats will now spend the next couple of weeks listening to trade offers for Soto ahead of the August 2nd trade deadline. Certainly, given the team control remaining, the Nationals would have to be floored by an offer in order to move him. The likelihood of a deal at this juncture still feels slim. An offseason deal is more likely. Still, interested parties now have a couple of weeks to begin making headway.
It’s difficult to fathom what exactly it would take to pry Soto loose from the Nationals. No matter what the return package, it’s sure to seem light in the eyes of local fans. Soto is the lone superstar and fan attraction at this point. The club has seen the departure of organizational mainstays like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, and Ryan Zimmerman in the past calendar year alone. Without Soto, the club would be starting from scratch, especially given the state of the farm system. A player of Soto’s stature does not come along frequently, and it’s unlikely they could recoup anywhere close to equal value for Soto.
For the Nationals to deal him, they have to really believe they have no chance of signing him to a long-term contract extension. Perhaps this latest rejection makes that point for them. From the outside, there are certainly ways in which the Nats could improve their offer, namely with a larger AAV, which does seem to be something that matters to players. They have, as is often pointed out, crossed this bridge with Boras before, both in signing Stephen Strasburg to a long-term deal, and in not coming to terms with players like Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon.
Complicating matters on both sides is the uncertain future of the Nats’ ownership situation. If the Lerners do, in fact, plan on selling the club, keeping Soto on the roster would seem to be positive, almost necessary. A new ownership group would likely rather have Soto than whatever handful of prospects would come back in a deal. And yet, Soto might be disinclined to commit to a new ownership group. How much can the team be sold for if part of the deal necessitates giving Soto more than $440MM? And yet, the franchise has to be far less attractive to potential buyers without Soto as a marketing centerpiece. How intent the Lerners are in selling the Nats might be the crux of this entire situation.
In many ways, it’s reasonable to expect an end to this saga – one way or the other – by the beginning of next season. Unlike a situation like, say, the Cubs had with Kris Bryant, the Nats have no hope of contending at this present moment, which might make them less inclined to suffer the constant trade rumors. When the Cubs held onto Bryant through years of rumors, they were, at least, competitive year-by-year, giving them cause to hold onto Bryant, even if it meant seeing him walk as a free agent. For the Nationals, Soto’s future is the only story in DC until it gets resolved.
For now, it’s going to be a tense couple of weeks for Nats’ fans as they await the trade deadline. Even if Soto stays beyond August 2nd, the trade rumors are going to continue to swirl. The Nationals have to be wondering if Soto’s uncertain future is a tenable situation. If they can’t find the right deal, however, they need to be willing to wait.
List Of Home Run Derby Contestants
July 14: Rangers shortstop Corey Seager will return to Dodger Stadium as the final Derby participant, Texas announced. Seager, who was also named to the American League All-Star team this afternoon as an injury replacement, has hit 21 homers on the season. He also appeared in the 2016 Home Run Derby.
July 13, 6:25pm: Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez will also participate, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (on Twitter). Ramirez has never participated in the Derby before, but he’ll join the event amidst a 17-homer season. Like Rodriguez, he’ll be part of the American League All-Star team the following night.
July 13, 3:50pm: Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez announced on social media that he will be joining the contest. As a rookie, this will naturally be his first appearance in the derby.
July 12: Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber has joined the field, with Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer relaying that he himself posted about it on Instagram.
July 11, 9:21pm: Nationals star Juan Soto will also participate. The Talk Nats blog first reported (on Twitter) that Soto would accept an invitation if offered and Héctor Gómez of Z101 confirmed he’d be in the event. Soto, who was a part of last year’s event, has hit 17 longballs on the season. He’ll also be part of the NL All-Star Team the following night.
7:06pm: The 2022 Home Run Derby will take place next Monday, and the field is beginning to take shape. Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. each announced this afternoon that they’d be participating, while Katie Woo of the Athletic reports that Cardinals designated hitter Albert Pujols will partake as well.
Pujols’ participation is the most surprising (and notable) of the three. He’s a four-time contestant but hasn’t appeared in a Derby in more than a decade. He’s only hit five longballs this year but twice led the National League during his first stint in St. Louis and is fifth all-time in homers. In his final big league season, Pujols is already set to head to the All-Star Game in recognition of his career. He’ll add the Derby to the celebration.
Alonso is hoping to defend his two straight titles. The New York slugger won in 2019, then backed that up with another championship last year. (The 2020 Derby was canceled). Along the way, he knocked off Acuña in the semifinals during the 2019 event. Atlanta’s star outfielder will join the festivities for a second time. Both Alonso and Acuña will team with Pujols on the NL All-Stars; Alonso is a reserve, while Acuña will be in Brian Snitker‘s starting lineup.
NL East Notes: Soto, Mets, Rocker
In addition to the 13-year, $350MM extension offer that Juan Soto reportedly turned down prior to the lockout, it was recently reported that Soto rejected a second offer after the lockout. The specific financial details of that second offer haven’t been publicly revealed, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that it was for “at least” $400MM.
$400MM would be a significant symbolic barrier to cross, as it would be the first time an MLB player surpassed that threshold. The current record for the largest guarantee is the $365MM in new money given to Mookie Betts when he agreed to an extension with the Dodgers. Soto says that he’s still open to an extension, but it seems like it might take more than a record-breaking contract to get it done.
Other notes from the NL East…
- From the same Nightengale piece, he relays that the Mets plan on being aggressive at the trade deadline but without giving up their top prospects. Instead, they would prefer to make deals by taking on large contracts from other teams. This wouldn’t be the first time they considered this approach, as the Mets reportedly were in discussions with the Padres this offseason on a deal that would have sent Dominic Smith to San Diego in exchange for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, Eric Hosmer and $30MM to help cover Hosmer’s salary. The deal ended up falling through due to the Mets’ medical staff growing concerned with the medical records of Paddack, who ended up requiring Tommy John surgery after being traded to the Twins instead. The new CBA added a fourth luxury tax line at the $290MM mark, which the Mets have pushed themselves right up against. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates their current luxury tax number to be $289.4MM, but it seems the division-leading Mets are willing to push over the line in order to bolster the club for the final push. They apparently won’t be dipping deep into their farm system, which is ranked the 16th in the league by Baseball America, but should get a boost at the upcoming draft when they will make two out of the first 14 picks.
- The reason the Mets have an extra first round draft pick is because of last year’s Kumar Rocker saga. The Mets selected him 10th overall and were apparently going to offer him a $6MM bonus, $1.26MM above slot value, until they grew concerned by something in his throwing elbow during a post-draft medical evaluation and withdrew their offer. Now a report from Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN relays that Rocker underwent shoulder surgery in September. Rocker’s agent Scott Boras characterized the procedure as “a minor scope” in the piece. Rocker signed with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League in preparation for re-entering the draft this year. Through five starts, he’s pitched 20 innings with a 1.35 ERA, 32 strikeouts and four walks. Despite the surgery, Jim Callis of MLB.com believes that Rocker has shown himself healthy enough to be selected at some point in the first round of the draft, which begins on July 17.
Injury Notes: Suarez, Soto, Montas
The Phillies have placed starter Ranger Suarez on the 15-day injured list because of lower back spasms, retroactive to June 30, per the club. The Phillies had boasted one of the healthier rotations this season before losing both Suarez and Zach Eflin to the injured list this week. A corresponding roster move will likely be made before Tuesday’s game against the Nationals. The Phillies have an off day tomorrow to set up their rotation. In other injury news…
- Juan Soto left today’s Nationals’ game with an apparent hamstring injury. It was later revealed to be tightness in Soto’s left calf that prompted his departure. He will have an MRI and be re-evaluated tomorrow, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Obviously, it would be crushing for the Nationals to lose Soto for any amount of time. Even with him, the Nats don’t have much hope for postseason play, but Soto remains the best and brightest attraction at Nats Park.
- Athletics starter Frankie Montas left today’s start early after seeing a drop in velocity, per MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos. Montas’ heater was 2.4 mph slower than usual, while his sinker was 2.7 mph slower on average, notes Gallegos. The initial diagnosis is inflammation, reports Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle, but they will need more time to evaluate. Not only is Montas Oakland’s nominal ace, but he’s been one of the more sought-after arms when it comes to the August 2nd trade deadline. A significant arm injury would obviously derail any plans to use the righty as a trade chip.
Juan Soto Open To Extension Discussions With Nationals
JULY 2: In another update from Dougherty, he reports that the Nationals’ latest offers to Soto haven’t included any deferred money. Just about all of the Nats’ biggest expenditures in recent years have included heavy deferrals — for instance, Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $245MM contract contained $80MM is deferred money.
JULY 1: Soto spoke with Dougherty on Friday, backtracking somewhat on his previously expressed desire to play out his arbitration years to test free agency. “Everybody wants to go to free agency and see how the market is going to be for them,” Soto told the Post. “But for me, I really don’t know if I want to go there or if I want to stay here. I feel really good here. We’ll see what’s going to happen. For me, right now, the plan that we always have is go year by year. But you don’t know what the future has for you.”
Asked whether he’d consider signing an extension with the Nats, Soto replied “Yes. Why not?” He suggested he’s content with Boras and the front office discussing potential terms during the season, saying he prefers to “to be far from (negotiations) because I want to concentrate on the game.”
JUNE 30: The Nationals made an extension offer to Juan Soto at some point this spring, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Specific timing of the proposal isn’t clear, but Dougherty adds that it’s believed the offer was made before Soto’s agent Scott Boras visited Nationals Park in late May. Soto rejected the offer, but Dougherty characterizes discussions between the two sides as “active.”
It’s at least the second offer the Nationals have put forth to the face of the franchise within the past 12 months. In February, Soto told Enrique Rojas of ESPN he’d rejected a long-term overture made prior to the lockout. Rojas reported the pre-lockout offer would’ve been for 13 years and $350MM guaranteed. Dougherty reports the Nationals went beyond $350MM in their spring proposal, but specific terms are unknown. Both Dougherty (Twitter link) and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic (on Twitter) hear that rumors of a 13-year, $425MM offer are inaccurate.
In any event, the relatively recent proposal is the latest indication the Nationals are hopeful they can keep Soto around for the long haul. It’s at least somewhat notable that discussions remain open even after Soto again declined. In his February interview with Rojas, the two-time Silver Slugger Award winner expressed a desire to proceed year-by-year through the arbitration process in anticipation of reaching free agency at the end of the 2024 season. That wasn’t due to any expressed animosity towards the Nationals organization, but rather a desire to market himself to all 30 teams with a good chance at a record-setting payday.
Without specific terms of the proposal, it’s impossible to pin down precisely where the latest offer stacked up among the biggest in major league history. At worst, it’d have marked the third-largest guarantee ever. Only two players have ever topped the $350MM mark. Mookie Betts received 12 years and $365MM from the Dodgers on his July 2020 extension, while Mike Trout took home ten years and $360MM in new money on his March 2019 extension.
As was the case when Soto turned down $350MM over the winter, many fans are sure to bristle at the notion of rejecting a proposal at an even greater amount. That’s particularly true in the context of what’s been a relative “down year,” at least in comparison to his pre-2022 performance. Soto enters play Thursday with a .224/.375/.437 slash line. Those are the lowest such marks of his career across the board, as he’d hit at least .282 with an on-base percentage above .400 and a slugging percentage north of .500 every season from 2018-21.
Nevertheless, the first three months of this season are unlikely to have a depressing effect on Soto’s long-term value. For one, his relatively underwhelming numbers would still be a strong showing for the majority of players. Soto’s on-base and slugging marks are decidedly above the respective .312 and .394 league figures. His .224 batting average is certainly not ideal, but that’s in large part attributable to a .225 average on balls in play that’s the fifth-lowest number for qualified hitters. Soto’s average exit velocity and hard contact rate are down somewhat, so the lesser batted ball results can’t be chalked up solely to misfortune. Yet his quality of contact metrics have still been solid, and considering he entered the season owner of a .330 career BABIP, Soto seems likely to enjoy better ball-in-play results moving forward.
Owner of a .290/.424/.534 career line with more walks than strikeouts, Soto is still on track for an eye-popping payday. He amazingly won’t turn 24 until October and would hit free agency in advance of his age-26 season. Once there, he still looks a good bet to top the record $36MM average annual value for position players over more than a decade, assuming he stays healthy. A deal in excess of $400MM seems likely, and it’s not out of the question Soto and his reps could set their sights on the half-billion dollar mark. (Getting to $500MM would likely require a 13-year term at an AAV just shy of $38.5MM).
There’s of course some risk for Soto in continuing to turn down offers that’d make him among the highest-paid players in league history. Every player has some risk of a drop-off in performance or severe injury. Soto, though, will have already banked more than $25MM in arbitration earnings by the end of this season. He’ll go through the arb process twice more and figures to make another $50+MM over the next couple years before reaching the open market.
Discussions with Soto come against a backdrop of possible change for the Nationals. The Lerner family has been looking into sale possibilities for the past few months. A potential ownership shakeup has led to some uncertainty for president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, each of whom are in the final guaranteed year of their contracts and have 2023 options that need to be decided upon next month.
The roster has undergone a major overhaul dating back to last summer’s trade deadline. Washington has kicked off a rebuild and seen the departures of key contributors to their 2019 World Series team like Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner. The Nats enter play tonight 20 games below .500, and they’re certain to move impending free agents Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz over the next four and a half weeks. They’ve not given much, if any, consideration to dealing Soto in a franchise-altering blockbuster. Rizzo flatly shot down speculation about a Soto trade four weeks ago, saying the Nationals “have every intention of building this team around” him.
Héctor Gómez of Z101 was first to report fairly recent discussions between Soto and the Nationals this afternoon.
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo: “We Are Not Trading Juan Soto”
At 18-33, the Nationals possess the second-worst record in the National League. With a litany of injuries, the game’s worst starting rotation (by measure of ERA, FIP and fWAR), and a middle-of-the-pack offense, there’s little hope of a turnaround. Given their place in the standings and last summer’s trade-deadline fire sale, there’s been plenty of recent speculation over at ESPN about the possibility of a Juan Soto trade this summer. Soto rejected a 13-year extension offer in the offseason and is “only” controlled for two years beyond the current campaign.
Despite the lack of an extension and dwindling club control, a trade of Soto hasn’t stood out as particularly likely, and this morning, general manager Mike Rizzo made clear that he has no intention of moving Soto this season.
“We are not trading Juan Soto,” Rizzo plainly stated when asked in a radio appearance on the Sports Junkies show on 106.7 FM The Fan (Twitter link, with audio). “We’ve made it clear to his agent and to the player. … We have every intention of building this team around Juan Soto. We’ve spoken to his agent many, many times — recently sat with him when he was in Washington D.C., made it clear to him that we are not interested in trading him, and I guess the rest of the world just doesn’t believe it. But that’s our position.”
Skeptics will point to the fact that Rizzo (or any GM) would never broadcast an intention to trade Soto (or any star player) for fear of losing leverage in talks. That’s true, but it’s also true that Rizzo didn’t have to make a declarative statement at all. It’s common now, more than ever, for baseball executives to use generic front-office speak when fielding questions of this nature. Rizzo, however, did not give a boilerplate answer about how he loves the player but it’s his job to listen to all opportunities, unlikely as a deal may be. Making definitive, on-the-record statements that a player will not be traded is fairly rare.
Notably, Rizzo took this same tack with Bryce Harper at the 2018 deadline. Harper indeed stayed put, although The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has since reported that the Astros nearly pulled off a blockbuster acquisition of Harper before Nationals ownership stepped in to nix the swap. In fairness to Rizzo, that report suggests the Harper agreement was axed on July 30; Rizzo’s comments on Harper staying in place were issued on the morning of July 31. We’ve also seen former Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen declare that neither Noah Syndergaard nor Edwin Diaz would be traded and current Royals president of baseball ops Dayton Moore state on record that Whit Merrifield would not be moved. Not even three months ago, Cincinnati GM Nick Krall announced to reporters that even on the heels of a slew of cost-cutting moves, he had no expectation of trading either Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle prior to the season. None of the players mentioned in those statements were traded.
Circumstances can always change, and that’s particularly true of a Nationals club that is reportedly up for a potential sale. It’s also possible that a team could simply bowl Rizzo and his staff over with a Godfather offer that he simply cannot in good conscience turn down. Still, it bears emphasizing that there’s no recent MLB example of a team’s top baseball operations official publicly proclaiming that a player will not be traded, only to then go back on that hardline stance and explain the about-face to the fanbase. The closest example is former Rockies GM Jeff Bridich saying in Jan. 2020 that Nolan Arenado would not be traded, but an Arenado deal didn’t come together until 13 months later, when circumstances had changed.
Fans of other clubs will surely hold out hope for a Soto blockbuster, and there will be no shortage of both speculation and hail-Mary attempts from other teams to pry the 23-year-old superstar from the Nationals’ grasp. Rizzo’s Wednesday comments, however, only make that long shot all the more unlikely.
Soto has yet to celebrate his 24th birthday but already has 107 big league home runs under his belt. He’s a lifetime .294/.426/.539 hitter and is already earning $17.1MM as a second-time arbitration-eligible player. (He’ll be arb-eligible four times rather than three, thanks to his Super Two status.) The Nationals’ reported 13-year offer this winter would’ve promised Soto $350MM in guaranteed money, but he opted to turn that down in favor of a year-to-year approach. Many fans were understandably aghast at the notion of rejecting $350MM in guaranteed money, but from Soto’s vantage point, he’s already earning $17MM this season and could reasonably project to earn upwards of $70-75MM over his final three arbitration seasons (2022-24). The extension, then, offered to buy out 10 free-agent seasons at somewhere in the vicinity of $27-28MM annually — an annual mark well shy of the current going rate for elite players and one he could likely trounce as a 26-year-old free agent.
Even if Soto is firmly off the market, the Nationals are shaping up to be sellers for a second straight deadline season. Veterans like Nelson Cruz, Josh Bell and Steve Cishek are among the names who could be reasonably expected to change hands, as all are free agents at season’s end.
Nationals Notes: Rizzo, Martinez, Soto, Ross, Strasburg
The Nationals hold 2023 club options on general manager Mike Rizzo and skipper Dave Martinez, as each is currently in the final guaranteed year of their contracts. Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that Washington is expected to exercise their option on Rizzo, who has been running baseball operations in the nation’s capital since midway through the 2009 season. Nightengale adds that the team has until the All-Star Break to decide whether to pick up Martinez’s option, which he reports is valued at $4MM. Jon Heyman of the New York Post, meanwhile, writes that Martinez’s option is valued at $3.5MM.
The Nats were excellent for a good portion of the last decade, making the playoffs five times between 2012-19 and claiming a World Series title during their final postseason run. That unsurprisingly seems to have bought Rizzo more time at the helm, even as the club has sputtered over the past couple seasons. After underperforming in 2020 and during the first half of last year, Washington kicked off a deadline sell-off. The Nationals shipped off a host of impending free agents and somewhat surprisingly pulled the trigger on a Trea Turner deal even though the star shortstop was controllable through the end of the 2022 season.
Parting with Turner signaled the Nationals were going to embrace a multi-year reboot. There was no indication that encompassed a possible trade of Juan Soto, however, and the superstar outfielder isn’t likely to find himself on the move this summer either. The Nationals’ dreadful start (last place in the NL East at 14-28) will no doubt lead rival teams to inquire about Soto’s availability, but a blockbuster trade of the 23-year-old feels like little more than a pipe dream right now.
Both Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Jon Heyman of the New York Post pushed back against the possibility of a Soto trade last week. Nightengale, meanwhile, writes that the organization is unlikely to seriously entertain the possibility until after the 2023 season — if at all. Soto reportedly rejected a 13-year, $350MM extension offer over the offseason, expressing a desire at the time to proceed year-by-year via arbitration. He remains controllable through 2024, however, and trading Soto this year would signify a rebuild of greater scope than the Nationals seem to want to entertain.
It stands to reason that Washington will be aggressive next offseason in acquiring upgrades to build a new core around Soto. They’ve little chance of competing in 2022, so they still seem likely to move impending free agents over the coming months. First baseman Josh Bell would probably be their most in-demand rental, although players like Nelson Cruz (if he rights the ship offensively) and César Hernández could hold some appeal as well.
Starting pitcher Joe Ross is another impending free agent who could be a viable midseason trade candidate, but he’ll first need to establish health. The right-hander was diagnosed with a partial tear of the UCL in his throwing elbow last summer, an injury that ended his season prematurely even as he avoided Tommy John surgery. He did undergo a less significant procedure during Spring Training, as doctors removed a bone spur from his elbow in March.
Ross opened the season on the 60-day injured list and isn’t eligible to return to the majors until the first week of June, but he’s moving closer to his season debut. The club informed reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post) that Ross is set to begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Harrisburg this week. Pitchers can spend up to thirty days in the minors on rehab, so the 29-year-old should be back in the big league rotation within a month, barring a setback.
That’s likewise true of Stephen Strasburg, who has been on the 10-day IL all year as he recovers from last July’s thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. The three-time All-Star is beginning a rehab stint with Low-A Fredericksburg on Tuesday (via Dougherty), suggesting he’s also trending towards a return within the next few weeks. Strasburg has made just seven starts since the beginning of the 2020 campaign due to various injuries.
With four-plus years remaining on the $245MM contract he signed over the 2019-20 offseason, Strasburg isn’t likely to be a realistic trade candidate anytime soon. Getting him back on track and finding anything resembling his pre-2020 form would give the Nationals a much-needed rotation anchor in their efforts to return to contention after this season, however. Washington’s starters have been a big culprit for their dismal start; only the Reds have a worse rotation ERA than the Nats’ 5.58 mark. Erick Fedde and Josiah Gray are the lone Nationals’ starters with an ERA south of 5.00, and both of them have allowed more than four earned runs per nine innings.
Latest On Nationals’ Extension Talks
It doesn’t appear as though the Nationals have had any in-depth talks with Josh Bell about a long-term contract, as president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo told The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty (Twitter links) that Juan Soto is still the top focus for an extension. There have been more “discussions” with Soto, but until that situation is settled, any negotiations with Bell will seemingly have to wait.
Bell avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10MM salary for 2022, his final season of arb eligibility. Since most players prefer to not talk contract during the season, the Nats might be left with a pretty limited window of time to work out a new deal with Bell, possibly just from the end of Washington’s season to the official start date of free agency. Furthermore, Bell is represented by the Boras Corporation, and it is rare to see Scott Boras clients agree to extensions so close to a trip to the open market.
Since Soto is under team control through 2024, Bell is technically the more pressing concern, and yet it is easy to understand why the Nationals are prioritizing a new Soto deal. It’s fair to guess that a Soto extension would be the single largest contract in baseball history, as Soto (also a Boras client) has already turned down a 13-year, $350MM offer from the Nats earlier this winter. Soto is still only 23 years old and already has a phenomenal track record of success, so it isn’t hard to imagine Boras wanting to set new contractual benchmarks for both total value and average annual value.
Bell, meanwhile, had a strong performance in his own right during his first season in D.C. The first baseman was one of many Nationals players sidelined by a COVID-19 outbreak in April, but after a slow start, Bell caught fire over the last four months and finished with 27 home runs and a .261/.347/.476 slash line over 568 plate appearances.
Should Bell repeat this performance in 2022, it’ll line him up for a nice multi-year pact in free agency. Bell turns 30 in August and he is somewhat limited as a primary first baseman, though he did line up in both corner outfield positions on occasion last season. With the universal DH now in place, Boras can now fully market Bell to National League teams that might have previously been unsure about his fielding future — as well, defensive metrics indicated that Bell’s 2021 glovework was the best of his career.
Whether Bell’s future is in Washington or not remains to be seen, depending on the state of the Nats’ minor rebuild. There is obvious benefit to retaining Soto as the face of the franchise, but locking Bell up to an extension or re-signing him in free agency would be a clear sign that the Nationals plan to contend again sooner rather than later. Such a move would also undoubtedly factor into Soto’s decision process, as Soto has been clear that he wants to play for a winning team. Plus, if an extension with Soto doesn’t become a reality, the Nats might adopt a win-now approach to capitalize on Soto’s prime years while they still have him.
Considering that D.C. has topped the $200MM payroll mark as recently as 2019, the team does have the resources to extend both Soto and Bell. Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin take up an outsized chunk of future payroll, but they are also the only Nationals players guaranteed money beyond the 2022 season.
Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Juan Soto, Josh Bell
The Nationals have avoided arbitration with star outfielder Juan Soto and first baseman Josh Bell, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Soto will make $17.1MM, while Bell will collect an even $10MM.
It’s a massive second-year number for Soto, who had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $16.2MM mark. That’s a reflection of the 23-year-old’s otherworldly track record, as he’s coming off as good a year at the plate as anyone in the game. Soto hit .313/.465/.534 with 29 home runs in 654 plate appearances. That earned him a notable bump over his 2021 salary of $8.5MM. Soto reached arbitration last winter as a Super Two and is controllable through 2024.
Bell’s $10MM salary is an exact match for Swartz’s projection. The former Pirate is coming off a decent first season in the District, posting a .261/.347/.476 line with 27 homers. After a pedestrian first half, Bell caught fire down the stretch. He’ll try to keep that going this season and set himself up for a nice payday next winter, when he’ll reach the open market for the first time.
With those agreements in place, the Nationals now have around $135MM on the books, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s nearly $50MM lower than last year’s season-opening mark, as the Nats kicked off a retooling effort last summer.