Juan Soto Declined $350MM Extension Offer From Nationals Before Lockout
The Nationals offered superstar outfielder Juan Soto a 13-year, $350MM contract extension before the start of the lockout, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN (Spanish-language link). Soto confirmed the team made him a long-term offer but tells Rojas he and his agents at the Boras Corporation prefer to proceed year-by-year via arbitration. He remains under club control through 2024, giving him three more seasons before hitting the open market.
According to Rojas, the offer did not contain any deferrals and would have gone into effect for the upcoming season had Soto accepted. The Nats have deferred payments in many of their recent big-ticket signings. Each of Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg, for instance, agreed to push a substantial portion of their earnings beyond the term of the contract. That reduced the present-day value of those deals, but the offer to Soto would not have had the same effect. The specific payout structure of the offer is unclear, but overall, it included an average annual value just south of $27MM through the 2034 campaign.
Some fans will surely bristle at the notion of Soto leaving $350MM on the table. It’s obviously a life-changing sum of money, and it’d have gone down as the third-largest guarantee (before accounting for inflation) in MLB history. However, a deeper look at Soto’s situation makes it unsurprising that wasn’t enough to forego the possibility of an even more lucrative payday down the line.
Soto already has a strong amount of financial security, lessening his incentive to forego future earning power for up-front payments. He reached arbitration early as a Super Two qualifier last offseason, eventually agreeing to an $8.5MM salary for 2021. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn around $16.2MM during his second trip through the process this year. That’s nearly $25MM that Soto has all but already earned.
Assuming he continues to perform as one of the league’s best players, Soto will see significant jumps in each of his final two arbitration seasons. He could approach or top the $27MM per-year salary the Nationals offered on the extension by his final year of arbitration. Mookie Betts’ $27MM agreement over the 2020-21 offseason is the largest ever for an arbitration-eligible player, and Soto’s Super Two qualification gives him a higher jumping-off point for future earnings than Betts had at the time.
As another frame of reference, take the 14-year, $340MM extension Fernando Tatís Jr. signed with the Padres last February. Soto’s deal narrowly tops that marker, but he’s negotiating from a greater position of financial strength. Tatís was four years from free agency at the time he signed his extension; Soto is currently three years away. And Tatís had not qualified for Super Two, so he was still a season from his first significant arbitration payment. Soto, as mentioned, has already banked $8.5MM and is in line for nearly double that amount this year. If one viewed Soto and Tatís as similarly valuable players, it’s hardly surprising the former’s comparatively stronger negotiating position set him up to decline a guarantee $10MM north of Tatís’ deal.
One can argue about precisely where Soto fits in discussion for the greatest players in the sport, but there’s no doubt he’s among the top few. He’s been one of the game’s best hitters from the moment he debuted as a 19-year-old in May 2018. Soto’s offensive production has checked in at least 43 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+, in all four of his MLB seasons. He’s particularly taken off over the past couple years, posting numbers that look like they’re from a video game.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Soto has hit .322/.471/.572 across 850 plate appearances. He’s walked in an absurd 21.9% of his trips while striking out just 14.2% of the time, showcasing the sport’s best strike zone awareness. Among qualified hitters, only defending NL MVP Bryce Harper (.426) has an OBP within 50 points of Soto’s mark. Soto trails just Trea Turner (.330) in batting average, while Tatís (.598) and Harper (.594) are the only two batters with better slugging figures.
Soto has done all this as an astoundingly young player. He turned 23 last October, setting himself up to reach free agency in advance of his age-26 campaign. Thus it’s no surprise he’s viewed by most as being on a path towards at least baseball’s first $400MM contract, and it’s plausible he could top $500MM on the open market. Scherzer topped the $40MM average annual value mark this winter (by a wide margin, at $43.33MM). A $40MM AAV over a 13-year term — which would “only” run through Soto’s age-38 season — would mean a $520MM guarantee, for instance.
There’s plenty of time before free agency comes into focus for Soto, but he and agent Scott Boras are no doubt keenly aware of the chance he has at setting contractual milestones. Soto told Rojas he still envisions himself spending his entire career in Washington, but it seems his current plan is to allow the next few seasons to play out in hopes of getting to the open market. After kicking off an organizational retool at last summer’s trade deadline, it remains to be seen how quickly the Nats plan to install another competitive roster around Soto in hopes of capturing their second World Series title of his tenure.
Quick Hits: Elian Soto, Yankees, Hinske, Royals
While the next international signing period opens on January 15, teams are already lining up the next wave of int’l prospects for years in advance. Washington City Paper’s Byron Kerr writes that the Nationals have agreed to a deal with outfielder/third baseman Elian Soto, the younger brother of superstar Juan Soto, as the 15-year-old has decided to join the D.C. organization when the 2023 signing period opens roughly a year from now. Reports from Z101’s Hector Gomez earlier this week suggested that the younger Soto was preparing to head to the Mets, and Soto seemingly confirmed matters by posting an Instagram video of himself wearing Mets-branded attire. New York was reportedly set to give Soto a $50K bonus, and while Brittany Ghiroli and Maria Torres of The Athletic report that the Nationals topped that offer, it wasn’t with a huge dollar figure, as the younger Soto has intriguing potential but isn’t considered a true top-tier prospect.
Though it is common practice for teams and international prospects to agree to deals well in advance of their eligibility date, deals aren’t completely official until a prospect’s signing period opens, so the younger Soto wasn’t breaking any rules by backing out of his Mets agreement. It also remains to be seen if the 2023 international signing period even exists in its current form, as it has long been speculated that MLB might overhaul the signing process and perhaps institute an international draft as part of the next collective bargaining agreement. This would wipe out the handshake deals teams have made with scores of younger prospects like Soto, and subject these players to a draft with a harder slot value (and less financial flexibility) than the one used in the North American amateur draft.
More from around baseball…
- Eric Hinske is one of the names the Yankees are considering for their hitting coach vacancy, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). The 2002 AL Rookie Of The Year and a veteran of 12 big league seasons, Hinske would certainly fit the Yankees’ preference for an experienced former player to join their staff. Hinske also has an accomplished coaching resume, working as a first base coach, assistant hitting coach, and hitting coach over parts of seven seasons with the Cubs, Angels, and Diamondbacks. No stranger to the Bronx, Hinske played for the Yankees’ 2009 World Series team, and briefly worked as a scout for the Yankees before embarking on his coaching career.
- The Royals announced several promotions within their baseball operations department, with a pair of former big leaguers amongst those moving up the ladder. Paul Gibson is now the senior director of pitching, after the former southpaw worked in various scouting, special assistant, and pitching performance supervisory roles with the Royals since 2011. Former Kansas City outfielder and first base coach Mitch Maier is now the director of player development/field coordinator, following two seasons as the team’s director of baseball ops.
Nationals Notes: Soto, Schwarber, Front Office
Before Juan Soto signs an extension with the Nationals, “the first thing that’s going to have to happen is that he knows that he’s working with an ownership that’s going to annually try to compete and win,” agent Scott Boras told The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty and other reporters. “And then I think once he knows that, then he’ll be ready to sit down and talk whenever they choose to talk.”
Soto’s time in D.C. has already produced one World Series title, of course, and the Nationals have been one of the league’s better terms over the last decade, as president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo noted to Dougherty and company. That said, the Nats have also finished in last place in both seasons since that 2019 championship, and traded away a significant amount of veteran talent at the last trade deadline. It seems like the team will reload to some extent this offseason, but it is unclear whether or not the Nationals will make a full-on plunge to try and compete as soon as 2022.
Rizzo did make some indication towards a bigger push this winter, as when asked if he would like to see Kyle Schwarber back in Washington, Rizzo responded with “Why wouldn’t we? I love him.” (hat tip to Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe) After being non-tendered by the Cubs last winter, Schwarber signed in D.C. for a one-year deal worth $10MM in guaranteed money, but his price tag for a return will be much steeper after his huge bounce-back season. Bringing Schwarber back would be a clear sign of the Nationals’ intent to contend, and he would also give Soto some much-needed lineup protection.
Even amidst the team’s struggles in 2021, Soto continued to make his case as arguably the game’s best hitter. Soto hit .313/.465/.534 with 29 home runs over 654 plate appearances, and has now produced four all-world seasons before his 23rd birthday. Given Soto’s youth and his already-incredible production, it is very easy to imagine that a Soto extension would be the most expensive contract in baseball history.
Soto is projected to earn $16.2MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, a massive raise commensurate with his continued great numbers. Though Soto is still under arbitration control through 2024 as a Super Two player, “we’re not in the mind-set where we got him under control for three more years and have three years to wait. That’s not our view,” Rizzo said. The Nationals might not immediately jump into deep extension talks, however, as Rizzo said the club will wait until after the new collective bargaining agreement is settled “just to see what the rules are” for baseball’s business going forward.
In the more immediate future, Rizzo is focused on making another change to the Nats’ front office. In another piece from Dougherty, Rizzo said the team is going to hire a new director of player development, and candidates from both within and outside the organization will be considered. Assistant GM Mark Scialabba had been in charge of player development but will now move to the player personnel division, while former baseball ops coordinator John Wulf has been promoted to assistant director of player development.
Examining A Potential Juan Soto Extension
It’s a new era for the Washington Nationals. In a major deadline selloff in July, the club traded Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes, Jon Lester, Daniel Hudson, Brad Hand and Josh Harrison. Anyone who was healthy and productive was shipped out of town. Well, almost anyone. Juan Soto stayed.
Even though the team is clearly stripping things down for the short-term, it always made sense to hang onto an incredible talent like Soto since he still has three years of team control remaining after 2021. The club targeted MLB-ready prospects in their deadline deals such as Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz, specifically to get back into contention while Soto is still on the club. But why not keep him around past 2024 and get rid of that ticking clock scenario?
Back in August, Soto said he wanted to go year by year, which would seem to indicate he’s not terribly motivated to put pen to paper. After all, he’s already banked some money, having reached Super Two status last offseason. He and the club avoided arbitration and agreed to a salary of $8.5MM for this season. But players have often made similar statements and still gone on to sign extensions when the numbers were big enough. For example, Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor had extension rumors swirling around them for years, rumors that they consistently shrugged off until they finally got what they wanted. In both cases, they were just one season away from free agency.
So, what would it take to lock up someone like Soto and keep him away from the open market? Let’s look at some numbers. Soto is going to finish this season with three years and 134 days’ service time. The largest extension ever given out for a player between three and four years’ service time is Freddie Freeman‘s eight-year, $135MM contract, signed at the start of the 2014 season. But Soto now has more earning power than Freeman did then. First of all, Freeman didn’t reach Super Two status as Soto did. Soto has also accomplished much more in his career so far, compared to Freeman at that time. In 471 games up to that point, Freddie had a career slash of .285/.358/.466 for a wRC+ of 127 and 7.1 fWAR. In 464 games, Soto’s career slash is .301/.432/.550, for a wRC+ of 156 and 17.7 fWAR.
Fernando Tatis Jr. makes for a closer comparison, though with a slightly smaller track record. When he signed his extension in February of this year, he had two years’ service time, with one of those years being the shortened 2020 season. Through 143 games, he had a line of .301/.374/.582, for a wRC+ of 150 and 6.6 fWAR. It took 14 years and $340MM to get his signature. That’s an average annual value of over $24MM.
Mookie Betts also makes for an interesting comparison, but unlike Tatis, he was much closer to free agency than Soto at the time of his extension. He had between five and six years’ service time and was just one year away from hitting the open market. In the three years leading up to that contract, Betts played in 439 games, slashed .299/.389/.535, for a wRC+ of 140 and 22.4 fWAR. His extension was 12 years, $365MM, average annual value of just over $30MM, the largest extension ever given out in MLB history.
Soto’s skill level is very similar to both Tatis and Betts, but he falls between the two when it comes to service time and proximity to free agency. Therefore, it seems fair to think that he could reasonably ask for an average annual value in between the two, where his salary escalates over his remaining arbitration years and into the free agent years. (Tatis’s contract for instance, escalates from $1MM in 2021 to $5MM in 2022, $7MM in 2023, $11MM in 2024, $20MM apiece in 2025 and 2026, $25MM in 2027 and 2028 and then settles at $36MM for each of the last six years of the deal.)
If Soto could get a contract of 14 years, just as Tatis did, that would take him into his age-36 season. That’s not unreasonable, given that other recent extensions for superstars have gone to a similar range. Betts’ extension goes to his age-39 season, Mike Trout’s to his age-38 season, Lindor to age-37 and Tatis to age-35. If that contract had an average annual value of $28.6MM, that would eclipse $400MM, nudging over a symbolic barrier and surpassing Mookie Betts for the largest extension in history.
That’s a lot of money, and probably too much money for the Nationals, without some creative manoeuvring to go along with it. They have Stephen Strasburg‘s contract on the books through 2026, paying him $35MM in each of the next five years. There’s also Patrick Corbin‘s deal, which pays him $23MM next year, $24MM in 2023 and $35MM in 2024. Add on that theoretical Soto money and they’re in the range of $100MM to just three players in 2024.
That’s probably too rich for a club that’s never had a payroll higher than about $205MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. But then again, Soto’s contract figures to be quite high by 2024 anyway. Mookie Betts used the arbitration process to get his salary as high as $27MM in his final year of control, and he wasn’t even a Super Two player. So, extension or not, the club is still facing a scenario where Strasburg, Corbin and Soto take up about half the budget in 2024.
The question then is if they want to commit to a Soto-Strasburg duo earning around $70MM for 2025 and 2026, with Soto being the primary line item for about a decade after that. If the answer to that is yes, then baseball could have its first 400-million-dollar man.
Are The Nationals On The Verge Of Losing Another Franchise Icon?
The Washington Nationals have undergone a whiplash-y few years. Coming off years as a playoff-impotent, Bryce Harper-led contender, the Nationals turned in one of the most improbable World Series runs ever in 2019, led by none other than Harper’s replacement in then-20-year-old wunderkind Juan Soto.
Soto was actually the Robin on that title team to Anthony Rendon‘s Batman. Rendon went 6-for-8 with a walk, three doubles, and three home runs in the 7th inning or later of elimination games during that postseason – a run that featured a record five come-from-behind wins in elimination games. Rendon’s heroics did not save him from Harper’s fate, however, as the homegrown star third basemen departed the capital to join the Angels as a free agent that very winter.
So it was just as the Nats shook off their persona as a playoff also-ran that they tumbled from contention and turned in back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 2010-11. Rather than build off the success of their title run, manager Dave Martinez and company instead oversaw a thin roster struggling to stay healthy and keep pace, even in a disappointing NL East.
Their futility led to the departure of more franchise icons via the deadline trade of face-of-the-franchise Max Scherzer and MVP-candidate Trea Turner to the Dodgers. For the District viewership, count the loss of World Series closer Daniel Hudson, longtime stopper Sean Doolittle, and fan favorite Michael A. Taylor – not to mention the retirement of Game Seven hero Howie Kendrick – among the losses since 2019.
What’s left in Washington is a team so anonymous to the fanbase that more than 20 percent of the active roster was acquired at this year’s deadline. Soto’s supposed running mate, Victor Robles, played so poorly that he was demoted to Rochester and has yet to return. GM Mike Rizzo hopes that the acquisitions of righty Josiah Gray and catcher Keibert Ruiz (acquired from L.A. in the Scherzer/Turner deal) will jump start the next Nationals’ contender, but there are few sure things besides Soto, who now stands as the lone superstar on a once star-studded franchise.
And yet with all those good-byes ushering in a new era of Nats’ baseball, franchise icon Ryan Zimmerman remains. Their first-ever draft pick, Zimmerman was the third baseman before Rendon arrived, and he remains a part-time first baseman long after his departure. Playing time has been carefully curated for the 37-year-old, so much so that one has to wonder if Zimmerman will play his final game at Nats Park on Sunday.
Zimmerman is not a Hall of Famer, but he’s nonetheless put up one heck of a career in Washington. The North Carolina native went to school in Virginia, and he has appeared in every season in Nats history except for 2020 when he opted out. Zimmerman is the all-time team leader in most offensive categories, and even counting Expos history, Zimmerman is the franchise leader in games played, at bats, plate appearances, hits, runs scored, total bases, doubles, RBIs, and home runs (plus strikeouts and double plays grounded into). Yadier Molina of the Cardinals is the only player in the game who has been with his club longer than Zimmerman has been with the Nationals.
In terms of the numbers, Mr. National put up 40.0 rWAR over his 16 seasons while being 16 percentage points better than average by measure of wRC+. He played 1,797 games, slashed .277/.341/.475 with 1,845 career hits and 284 career home runs. Though he’s almost certainly held in higher regard locally than his accomplishments warrant, a history of injuries has also made him somewhat underrated on the national level.
The two-time All-Star has been productive as a part-time player this year, posting 1.1 rWAR in 267 plate appearances with a .243/.281/.470 triple slash, 14 home runs and 45 RBIs. He’s been particularly productive in his role starting games against southpaws, slashing .297/.324/.565 in those games. Though 2017 was the last time he had more than 500 plate appearances in a season, he’s preserved a role as a part-time player.
Zimmerman has enough bat to stay in this game for another year or two, but it would be somewhat surprising to see him return for yet another go-round in Washington. He’s long been adamant about playing nowhere but DC. If the Nats were heading towards a season of surefire contention in 2022, Zimmerman might be more inclined to keep his cleats on, but Rizzo has a lot of work to do to get the roster ready for another run. As of now, however, Zimmerman has yet to announce his intentions for next season.
If Zimmerman does indeed retire, it will be another blow to a DMV fanbase that has suffered its fair share of heartbreak. One of the most consistent franchises in the game during the 2010s, they’ll enter 2022 with more uncertainty than usual. Rizzo, Martinez, and Soto remain as the through-line tracing back to the organization’s heyday, with Stephen Strasburg looming as the other potential face-of-the-franchise, were he able to conquer his health demons and stay on the bump – but that’s more pipe-dream than expectation at this point.
As the ties to the 2019 World Series title come undone, Nats’ fans can enjoy Zimmerman for at least two more games this weekend. That said, a franchise that long provided stability has to build something new moving forward. Zimmerman’s presence is important not only to the fanbase, but as a symbol of the organization’s loyalty and continuity – which is becoming harder and harder to find. Without Zimmerman, the team will truly belong to Soto, and with three years of team control remaining, the franchise has exactly that long to convince him to take on the legacy left behind by Zimmerman as Mr. National.
Soto Expects To Go “Year By Year” With Nationals
On their way to back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 2010-2011, the Nationals have for the first time in a long time turned their attention to the future. If they are able to successfully pull of a “retool” — thereby avoiding the dreaded “rebuild” — it will likely be fueled by the rapid development of a stable of young players that includes Victor Robles, Luis Garcia, Carter Kieboom, Keibert Ruiz, Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray.
In trading away veterans at the deadline, the Nationals targeted more advanced prospects like Ruiz and Gray for the express purpose of keying a quick turnaround. That’s because Juan Soto remains on the roster, and if they plan on signing the all-world outfielder to a contract extension, the Nats will want to avoid a drawn-out rebuild. Soto is under team control for three seasons beyond this one, and as a Scott Boras client, he’s unlikely to sign long-term.
Soto said as much recently, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. When asked about the possibility of extending, Soto said, “I’m going to try to take it year by year. I’m just going to keep playing baseball, not think about contracts or whatever … right now, I was a little frustrated, but I have to concentrate on the field, on how to be better for myself and my teammates. If they want to talk to my agent, they can talk to him. But let me play.”
The Nationals are better equipped than many clubs to handle the uncertainty of Soto’s long-term future because of their relationship with Boras. They’ve gone down this road before with Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Stephen Strasburg. And while one view might notice that two of those three players left for other organizations, it’s also important to note that the team did bring Strasburg back on a monster $245MM deal. Besides, with Scherzer’s contract off the books and a Trea Turner extension no longer something they need to worry about, the Nats have long-term money to spend.
They’ll still need to convince Soto that Washington is where he wants to be. To that end, they should have a leg up on the competition. He has, after all, already won a World Series in DC, and with the Nats’ history of spending and pushing for competitive ball clubs, one would think Soto could envision an enviable long-term future.
On the Nats’ side, there’s the lingering question of how aggressively the Nats will work to make Soto a lifelong National. The Nats tend to put their money behind pitching — hence the long-term deals for Strasburg, Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin, while Harper, Rendon, and Turner have all been shown the door.
Soto, however, might be a generational player even beyond that star-studded threesome. On the one hand, there are few players in the game as talented as Harper, Rendon, and Turner. But on the other hand, Soto might just be one of those guys, and his youth makes him all the more likely to garner a “lifetime” contract like those mega deals signed by Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Harper himself.
What might be worrying for Nats’ fans is that Harper’s a pretty darn good career comp for Soto, and while they made an earnest effort to re-sign Harper, they were ultimately okay with letting him walk.
At the very least, Nats apologists can point to Strasburg and Ryan Zimmerman as two players they were intent on keeping – and did. From a personality standpoint, Soto’s understated confidence and humility might fall more in line with Strasburg and Zim than the more vivacious Harper.
If Washington feels about Soto the way they have about Stras and Zim, he should be a National for life. Regardless, it doesn’t look like we’ll know for sure until the winter following the 2024 season.
Nationals Notes: Scherzer, Turner, Soto, Staff
Prior to becoming a member of the Dodgers, there were rumors that the Red Sox were “in the mix” of the Max Scherzer sweepstakes. However, it doesn’t seem as if talks got very far, according to Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo. When asked about the report that Scherzer was willing to waive his no-trade rights to join Boston’s rotation, Rizzo said, “We never got that close to a deal with the Red Sox so that was never a question that was posed to him,” according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, relaying an interview with Rizzo on 106.7 The Fan.
Some other notes from DC…
- Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that the Nats’ last extension offer to Trea Turner was for six years, $100MM. Heyman also says that the Nats didn’t make another offer in the spring of 2021, as had been reported. This would have been fairly close to the six-year, $120MM extension Xander Bogaerts signed with the Red Sox in April of 2019. Although Bogaerts was just a year away from free agency then, whereas Turner would have been three years away in March of 2020. Betting on himself seems to have paid off for Turner so far. His salary in 2020 was $7.45MM, though that was prorated to around $2.75MM with the shortened season. This year, he’s making $13MM and will be in line for a hefty arbitration raise in 2022. He could then go into free agency as a 29-year-old, having already banked around $35MM of that $100MM.
- Juan Soto “felt something in his knee” in tonight’s game, manager Dave Martinez tells various reporters, including Bobby Blanco of MASN. After a trade deadline fire sale, Soto was the figurative last man standing, staying put and watching Scherzer and Turner walk out the door, as well as Josh Harrison, Yan Gomes, Kyle Schwarber and others. The lefty is having yet another excellent season, with a wRC+ of 144 and 3.1 fWAR. But since the team has seemingly already waved the white flag on the season with the aforementioned fire sale, they can afford to be cautious with their remaining star if any issues arise.
- Martinez also says five members of his staff that tested positive for COVID-19 have been cleared to rejoin the club, according to Gene Wang of The Washington Post. These positive tests were part of the same outbreak that sent Trea Turner and Daniel Hudson to the IL last week.
Nats Receiving Strong Interest In Trea Turner
TODAY: Beyond Turner, the Nationals are willing to at least discuss trading anyone besides Juan Soto, according to Dan Federico (Twitter link).
JULY 26: It’s been less than a week since Nationals GM Mike Rizzo spoke about how his team’s play leading up to the deadline would determine whether the front office would operate as buyers or sellers. The Nats have gone 1-4 since those comments, including a loss to the last-place Marlins and a three-game sweep at the hands of the Orioles in Baltimore.
There’s no indication yet that the Nationals are on the brink of a broad-reaching sell-off, but Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that the Nationals are receiving “a lot” of interest in All-Star shortstop Trea Turner and have not firmly ruled out moving him (Twitter thread). It goes without saying that the Nats would need an overwhelming return in order to part with Turner, who is still owed about $4.82MM of this year’s $13MM salary and is controlled via arbitration through the 2022 season.
Broadly speaking, one would think that the 28-year-old Turner is an extension candidate more than a trade candidate, given the Nationals’ perennially high payroll, recent World Series victory and general “win-now” mindset. However, MLB Network’s Peter Gammons tweeted today that Nationals ownership doesn’t have plans to green-light a long-term extension with Turner.
Absence of an extension doesn’t necessarily mean that a trade of Turner is a foregone conclusion, of course. The Nationals will in all likelihood be aiming to contend in 2022, regardless of how their 2021 campaign plays out, and Turner would be a central figure in those efforts. But it’s also certainly possible that for a player of Turner’s caliber, the Nats could extract multiple near-MLB pieces and/or controllable young big leaguers who could both deepen the roster for the 2022 season and set them up nicely in the long run.
Turner, the No. 13 overall pick back in 2014, has established himself as one of MLB’s best all-around talents dating back to a breakout 2016 campaign. He’s a .301/.356/.489 hitter 92 home runs and 190 stolen bases in that time and, in deserving fashion, finally nabbed his first All-Star nod in 2021. Turner is batting .319/.367/.521 this season and entered play leading the National League with 199 total bases on the season. No one has swiped more bases than Turner since the start of the 2016 season, and FanGraphs ranks him 20th among all position players in wins above replacement in that span.
If Turner indeed were to hit the market, it’d be a major shakeup to a fairly limited crop of available infielders. Fellow shortstops Trevor Story and Javier Baez are the most notable player available, though neither is having a great year at the plate. Other (non-shortstop) possibilities include Jonathan Schoop, Eduardo Escobar, Whit Merrifield and Asdrubal Cabrera. Story has reportedly received some interest as a possible outside-the-box option in center field, and Turner could hold similar appeal — particularly since he’s actually played 387 innings of center field in the big leagues. (Story has played only shortstop in the Majors.)
The market for infield help is still developing — as is the trade market in general, despite the deadline’s proximity — but the Mariners, Brewers, Mets, Reds, White Sox, A’s have all been linked to infield upgrades (not necessarily at shortstop). The Padres, who originally drafted Turner, seem to be in on virtually every big name that hits the market, regardless of whether their roster presents a clear fit.
The Turner rumblings come at the same time as reports that Max Scherzer is at least open to waiving his 10-and-5 no-trade rights. While that doesn’t definitively signal the organization has made up its mind to sell this week, but it’s only natural to think that after slipping in recent weeks — or at least failing to gain much ground — hopeful buyers are beginning to circle and gauge the asking prices should the Nats eventually wave the white flag on 2021. Rizzo himself last week said that if the Nats do become sellers, “everything will be on the table, I would think.”
Latest From The Nationals
The Nationals’ will to compete is being tested this trade deadline. After back-to-back losses to the Orioles, the Nats don’t look at all like a contender. They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and two cornerstone players in Trea Turner and Juan Soto whom they’ll want to sign long-term in the coming season. Restocking the farm system could go a long way to providing Turner and Soto with the future competitive security they may need to ink long-term deals, writes The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.
The most significant deadline question, of course, revolves around Max Scherzer. Mad Max missed his start yesterday with triceps discomfort, but it’s a minor injury and nothing that should derail a potential trade, if there were to be one. A decision has not yet been made about making his next start, per Dougherty.
Joe Ross will come off the injured list without a rehab assignment to start tomorrow’s game against the Phillies, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Ross hasn’t been talked about much in terms of the trade market, but he’s put up a solid season — 4.02 ERA/4.51 FIP in 87 1/3 innings — as he finally looks to be rounding back into form as the guy who debuted with the Nats back in 2015. He’s making just $1.5MM, and he has one more season of arbitration eligibility. Scherzer is obviously the big fish in Washington, but for teams looking for cheap, controllable help in the rotation, Ross has mid-rotation upside.
Whether Ross would be available or not is unclear. If indeed the Nats decide to sell, Daniel Hudson and Brad Hand would presumably be the two names of interest, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Hudson has been excellent once again this year and could solidify a contender’s pen as he did for the Nats in 2019. The Blue Jays are among the teams to ask about the Nats’ pair of back-end arms, per Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (via Twitter).
Tanner Rainey is beginning a rehab assignment today, tweets Dougherty. Rainey’s had a tough season to date — 6.93 ERA in 24 2/3 innings — and he’s less likely to be dealt than the names above. That said, if Hudson and/or Hand are moved, Rainey would be a prime contender to take on some high leverage duties.
If Scherzer and/or Ross do get moved, the Nats would have to dig deep to find enough starters to fill out their rotation. Stephen Strasburg does not seem any closer to making his return from a neck strain and other various ailments. He will see another specialist this week, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com.
Poll: Who Will Win The 2021 Home Run Derby?
A busy week for Major League Baseball kicked off Sunday with the Futures Game during the day and the first 36 picks of the 2021 MLB Draft in the evening. It’ll continue with Day Two of the draft today and the annual Home Run Derby this evening.
Tonight’s eight-player field consists of top seed Shohei Ohtani, followed (in order of MLB’s seeding) by Joey Gallo, Matt Olson, Salvador Perez, Pete Alonso, Trey Mancini, Trevor Story and Juan Soto. One half of the bracket will see Ohtani/Soto and Perez/Alonso in first-round matchups, while the other half will see Gallo/Story and Olson/Mancini. We’ll take a very brief look at each participating slugger’s season to date (sorted by their first-round matchup) before opening up polls on who fans are rooting for and who they expect to take home the trophy.
- Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Angels: Ohtani has been the talk of baseball in 2021, leading MLB with 33 home runs while also pitching to a 3.49 ERA with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate on the mound.
- .279/.364/.698, 33 home runs
- 93.7 mph average exit velocity, 119 mph max exit velo, 26 percent barrel rate
- Juan Soto, OF, Nationals: Soto hasn’t matched his 2019 power output, but he’s the youngest entrant in the field and has been one of baseball’s elite hitters from the moment he homered in his first big league at-bat back in 2018.
- .283/.407/.445, 11 home runs
- 92.6 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 10.8 percent barrel rate
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- Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: After a slow start, Gallo looks well on his way to another 40-homer season. He’s hitting .308/.479/.838 with 15 home runs since June 4.
- .239/.402/.522, 24 home runs
- 92.4 mph average exit velo, 115.1 mph max, 19.6 percent barrel rate
- Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: Story will take the field hoping for an upset win that could serve as something of a Coors Field farewell with the trade deadline and free agency looming.
- .249/.323/.442, 11 home runs
- 90.7 mph average exit velo, 110.2 mph max, 9.2 percent barrel rate
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- Salvador Perez, C, Royals: The seven-time All-Star gets better with age. He’s ripped 32 home runs in just 519 plate appearances dating back to the beginning of the 2020 campaign.
- .275/.300/.501, 21 home runs
- 93 mph average exit velo, 114.2 mph max, 14.3 percent barrel rate
- Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets: Alonso will defend his 2019 title — there was no 2020 Home Run Derby — in the midst of a hot streak. Eleven of the Polar Bear’s 17 big flies have come since Memorial Day weekend.
- .250/.328/.478, 17 home runs
- 92.7 mph average exit velo, 117.1 mph max, 15.7 percent barrel rate
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- Matt Olson, 1B, Athletics: Since 2017, the underrated Olson leads all full-time first basemen with 126 home runs, and he’s on pace to top his career-high mark of 36.
- .282/.371/.567, 23 home runs
- 92 mph average exit velo, 115.3 mph max, 14.4 percent barrel rate
- Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles: That Mancini was able to return to the field at all after being diagnosed with Stage 3 colon cancer in early 2020 is remarkable; a derby win would be a feel-good story for baseball fans everywhere.
- .256/.331/.460, 16 home runs
- 88.5 mph average exit velo, 113.9 mph max, 12.9 percent barrel rate
Who do you want to see win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)
Who do you WANT to win the Home Run Derby?
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Shohei Ohtani 29% (4,206)
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Pete Alonso 24% (3,503)
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Trey Mancini 15% (2,240)
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Joey Gallo 12% (1,815)
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Juan Soto 6% (807)
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Matt Olson 5% (788)
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Trevor Story 4% (634)
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Salvador Perez 4% (548)
Total votes: 14,541
Who do you think will win the 2021 Home Run Derby? (Link to poll for app users)
Who do you think WILL win the Home Run Derby?
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Pete Alonso 31% (3,288)
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Shohei Ohtani 28% (3,019)
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Joey Gallo 20% (2,168)
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Matt Olson 6% (606)
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Juan Soto 5% (499)
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Trey Mancini 4% (458)
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Trevor Story 4% (406)
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Salvador Perez 2% (242)
Total votes: 10,686