Cubs Notes: Hoerner, Third Base, Bellinger, Steele
The Cubs made a massive splash on the trade market yesterday when they landed star outfielder Kyle Tucker is a blockbuster deal with the Astros. The club surrendered a hefty package of All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith, and right-handed youngster Hayden Wesneski in order to make the deal, however, and the loss of Paredes in particular may have changed some of the club’s offseason plans.
Second baseman Nico Hoerner has reportedly been available in trade talks this winter, with the Mariners in particular being said to have interest in the infielder. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, however, it’s possible that the club’s thinking involving Hoerner has changed in the aftermath of yesterday’s deal with the Astros. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs were motivated to trade from their infield mix in order to open up playing time for top prospect Matt Shaw, who hit a sensational .298/.395/.534 in a late-season cup of coffee at the Triple-A level and appears ready to make the jump to the major leagues.
Shaw was drafted as a shortstop, but is a bat-first prospect who has spent time at both second and third base in the minors since being selected with the 13th-overall pick in the 2023 draft. While Shaw has typically been considered a more natural fit at second than third due to questions about his arm strength, the youngster logged 580 1/3 innings at the hot corner in the minors this past year and seems to be a natural choice to replace Paredes in Chicago’s infield mix next year. That, according to Rosenthal, leaves the Cubs “likely” to keep Hoerner in the fold headed into next season.
It’s at least possible another addition changes those plans, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier today that the club is in the market for third base help following yesterday’s deal. It’s unclear if such an addition would be a part-time player who could offer insurance in case Shaw proves to not be quite ready for the majors or if the Cubs are pursuing more of a regular option at the hot corner, but it would seem likely at this point that the Cubs may only seriously entertain a Hoerner trade going forward if they’re able to land a regular third baseman, thereby allowing them to replace Hoerner with Shaw at the keystone.
While Hoerner may be staying put in Chicago, the same cannot be said for Cody Bellinger. The 2019 NL MVP has been known to be on the trade block all winter due to the outfield logjam the Cubs experienced late in the 2024 season, when Bellinger was vying with Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Mike Tauchman, and top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong for regular playing time. That logjam already led the Cubs to non-tender Tauchman, and the introduction of Tucker as the surefire everyday starter in right field only further emphasized that Bellinger figures to play in another uniform next year.
The Yankees appear to be perhaps the most aggressive suitor for Bellinger this winter, though reports have previously indicated that the sides remain apart on how much of Bellinger’s contract the Cubs should retain. Peter Botte of the New York Post provided additional details about the situation yesterday, reporting that the sides are “more than $10MM” apart in their negotiations. That’s a hefty gap the sides will need to bridge in order to come together on a deal, as it represents more than a third of Bellinger’s $27.5MM salary for the 2025 season. Freeing up money in order to improve other areas of the roster seems to be one of the primary motivators for the Cubs in trading Bellinger. According to RosterResource, the club’s luxury tax payroll sits at just under $215MM after the Tucker deal, and clearing as much of Bellinger’s $26.67MM average annual value off the books as possible would greatly increase Chicago’s financial flexibility as they look into improving their rotation by dealing for a starter like Mariners righty Luis Castillo or Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo.
Speaking of the rotation, Patrick Mooney and Tim Britton of The Athletic recently took a look at the possibility of an extension between the Cubs and left-hander Justin Steele. The pair report that Steele and the Cubs have not engaged in extension talks to this point, though they note that the Cubs frequently use the start of Spring Training as an opportunity to explore extensions with players as they’ve done with Hoerner and Happ in the past before ultimately getting deals done closer to Opening Day.
The 29-year-old lefty is certainly an intriguing extension candidate. Steele is under team control for three more seasons and doesn’t sport high-end velocity or massive strikeout rates. With that said, his results have been undeniably excellent in three seasons since he joined the rotation on a full-time basis. In 427 innings of work across 78 starts over the past three years, Steele has posted a 3.10 ERA (134 ERA+) with a nearly matching 3.14 FIP. He generates grounders at a strong 48.5% clip and has limited walks to just a 5.7% rate over the past two seasons after struggling somewhat with his control in 2022. Among starters with at least 300 innings over the past two years, only Gerrit Cole has allowed a lower ERA than Steele’s 3.07, while his 3.11 FIP ranks third behind Sonny Gray and Logan Webb.
Cubs Planning To Add Starting Pitcher In Offseason
The Cubs are planning to add an established starting pitcher to their rotation this winter, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The club has Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in four spots. Per Mooney’s report, adding one more name into that mix would push guys like Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks and Hayden Wesneski down the depth chart.
“In one sense, you feel like you’re in a solid position because we have a number of young pitchers (who) have had success in the big leagues,” Manager Craig Counsell is quoted as saying in the piece. “Now with all of them, there’s been injuries. And it’s not a big sample as of yet. But that’s also kind of the nature of pitching. It’s the nature of young pitching. So we’re in a good spot in terms of that area of depth. But as we saw this year, it disappeared quickly.”
The quartet of Imanaga, Steele, Taillon and Assad have been the club’s best starters this year, both in terms of quality and quantity. Each of that group has an ERA of 3.41 or lower at the moment and all of them have tossed between 130 and 175 innings on the season thus far.
But as Counsell alluded to, there were also some challenges. Steele made a couple of trips to the injured list, one for a left hamstring strain and another for left elbow tendinitis. The Cubs had picked up a $16.5MM club option to bring back Kyle Hendricks but that ultimately proved to be a misstep. Hendricks struggled badly enough to get moved to the bullpen. He eventually retook a rotation spot but has a 6.28 ERA for the year overall. Wicks is currently on the IL for the third time this year, having gone on the shelf for a left forearm strain and then two separate stints for right oblique strains. Brown hasn’t pitched since June due to a stress reaction in his neck. Horton last pitched in May, getting shut down with a subscapularis strain and suffering a setback while trying to return the mound.
An argument could be made for rolling into 2025 with the same front four, letting the group of Wicks, Brown, Horton and Wesneski fight for the fifth spot. But with so many issues in 2024, adding some more security makes plenty of sense. None of those four are fully established. Wesneski is the only one with more than 81 big league innings pitched, and his 186 frames have been split between the bullpen and rotation. Wicks, Brown and Wesneski all still have options, meaning they could be stretched out in Triple-A if not needed on the big league staff. Horton isn’t yet on the 40-man and doesn’t need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft until December of 2025.
The Cubs also might not have much else on their winter to-do list. Even if Cody Bellinger eventually opts out, the outfield will still have Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Mike Tauchman, with Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara and Brennen Davis at Triple-A. The infield has Isaac Paredes, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch, with Matt Shaw knocking on the door. Miguel Amaya has shown some progress at the plate and Christian Bethancourt can be retained for next year if the Cubs believe in his recent performance. Moises Ballesteros will also be pushing for a job soon.
The bullpen arguably should be a focus but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had made it clear he would prefer to not to make free agent splashes there. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, since Hoyer was hired in November of 2020, the club hasn’t given a multi-year deal to any reliever. And of the one-year deals they have given out, the only guy to get more than $5MM was Héctor Neris, who got $9MM.
Unless a change is coming in terms of the approach to bullpen construction, starting pitching is a logical target with the position player group in strong shape. And there should be some powder dry for reinforcements. The club went narrowly over the $237MM competitive balance tax this year, with RosterResource currently pegging their number a bit over $238MM. Next year’s tally is only at $126MM right now. Arbitration raises for guys like Paredes and Steele will certainly add to that number and it will grow significantly if Bellinger decides to stay, but there will still be room for a notable contract.
Hoyer hasn’t played at the top of the market in terms of starting pitching but has given out some mid-market deals. As shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker again, Imanaga, Taillon and Marcus Stroman have each received guaranteed between $53MM and $71MM, the largest guarantees the Cubs have given to starting pitchers in the Hoyer era.
This winter’s starting pitching class will be topped by guys like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and Blake Snell, assuming Snell stays healthy and opts out of his deal. Signing any of those guys would likely require the Cubs to go to a new level of spending, getting into nine-figure territory. If they want to stay in that Stroman/Taillon/Imanaga tier, they’d probably be debating names like Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta and others. Hall-of-Fame-bound veterans Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander will be limited to short-term deals since they are both in their 40s and coming off injury-plagued years in 2024.
The trade market will be another option for the Cubs. The White Sox didn’t end up flipping Garrett Crochet at the deadline but could perhaps make him available again in the winter. The Marlins lost almost all their rotation options to injury this year but it’s possible to see them considering deals as the group gets healthier for 2025. Somewhat similarly, the Rays seem to have an abundance of rotation options with Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen returned from long absences, with Shane McClanahan to join them next year. Other possibilities will surely emerge as the winter goes on.
It will be an interesting offseason for the Cubs. Their signing of Swanson heading into 2023 seemed to signal a wish to return to contention after a couple of rebuilding years. They had a solid but unspectacular year in 2023, winning 83 games. They may top that here in 2024, currently at 80-76, but will miss the postseason again. Pressure figures to be high for a club that hasn’t made the postseason in a full campaign since 2018, but a lot of good elements are in place and a few finishing touches could perhaps get them over the hump in 2025.
NL Central Notes: Hudson, Steele, Cruz
For most of the 2024 season, Bryan Hudson was one of the most effective relievers in the major leagues. Out of 58 relievers who have thrown at least 60 innings this year, his 1.73 ERA ranks fifth. However, since September 3, Hudson has been pitching not for the Milwaukee Brewers but for the Triple-A Nashville Sounds.
According to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Brewers decided to option Hudson to Triple-A due to concerns about his velocity and durability. The left-hander suffered a minor oblique strain at the of July and came back in mid-August. While his surface-level numbers remained impressive upon his return (2.13 ERA in 12 2/3 IP), his velocity was noticeably lower on all three of his pitches. What’s more, his strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate rose, and his 4.38 SIERA was significantly higher than his 2.98 SIERA pre-injury.
Thus, with the Brewers sitting comfortably atop the NL Central standings, it made sense to send Hudson to the minors, where he could rest up and work on his stuff away from the pressure of the show. He has made just two outings so far for the Sounds, tossing a couple of scoreless innings with four strikeouts, two hits, and no walks allowed. His fastball velocity is still down compared to where it was earlier in the season, but it’s been a little better than it was in his last few outings before his demotion. Perhaps more importantly, his fastball velocity was higher in his second Triple-A outing this month than it was in his first.
It’s unclear if the Brewers are planning to recall Hudson anytime soon, but manager Pat Murphy suggested the 27-year-old will be back in Milwaukee eventually. As Hogg reports, Murphy is “pleased” with what Hudson has accomplished in Nashville, and there’s nothing more he needs to prove. The skipper didn’t provide a timeline for Hudson to get back in the Brewers’ bullpen, but he implied that a return was on the horizon, saying “I think you’ll see him again.”
The Nashville Sounds’ season ends next Sunday. If the Brewers are hoping to have Hudson for the postseason, it would make sense to call him up once the Triple-A campaign comes to a close. That would give him a week to reacclimate to big league competition before October.
More from around the NL Central:
- After completing a 40-pitch bullpen session yesterday, Cubs starter Justin Steele described it as “a really good day” (per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). The All-Star hurler landed on the injured list earlier this month with left elbow tendinitis, but he says he is no longer feeling any symptoms of the injury (per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic). As Lee adds, the Cubs still need to monitor Steele’s recovery over the next few days, but as long as he remains healthy, he should be able to return sometime soon, potentially for the four-game series against the Nationals at the end of this coming week. Sitting 5.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot, the Cubs are still clinging onto their slim playoff hopes. This late in the season, their fate is probably out of their hands, but it certainly won’t hurt to have their co-ace back for a couple more turns through the rotation.
- Oneil Cruz exited the Pirates game this afternoon with discomfort in his left ankle, manager Derek Shelton told reporters (including Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). He suffered the injury slipping in the outfield. The 25-year-old recently began playing center field for the first time in his professional career, and it will surely take him some time to get used to the new position. Cruz has started 13 games in center over the past three weeks, and he already has two errors and -3 defensive runs saved. Thankfully for Cruz and the Pirates, this injury doesn’t appear particularly serious. Indeed, he was able to stay in the game initially, but, as Shelton puts it, the ankle later “stiffened up.” Cruz is day-to-day for now, but the Pirates certainly aren’t going to take any chances with the young star over the final two weeks of another lost season.
Cubs To Place Justin Steele On Injured List
5:30pm: Right-hander Jack Neely will be recalled as the corresponding move for Steele, per Montemurro on X.
4:35pm: The Cubs announced to reporters that left-hander Justin Steele will be placed on the 15-day injured list. His issue is left elbow flexor tendinitis, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times on X. The corresponding move has not been revealed yet.
Steele was supposed to start Monday’s game but was scratched due to some elbow soreness. The Cubs took a couple of days to evaluate things and have now seemingly decided that Steele will need some down time.
Manager Craig Counsell tells Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (X link) that it’s possible Steele could be back after a minimum stint, depending on how things develop in the next ten days. “If we can get him back to normal he’s gonna pitch,” Counsell says. Presumably, Steele’s IL placement will be backdated by three days, the maximum allowed. That means he could technically be back in 12 days if everything goes well.
Whether that’s a realistic expectation or not will be revealed in time. Either way, it’s a blow for the Cubs in the short term. The club is still clinging to contention here in September, currently sitting 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. The lefty has 477 1/3 innings under his belt at this point with a 3.24 earned run average. That includes 128 innings this year with a 3.09 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 48.4% ground ball rate.
Losing that kind of performer will hurt a club with little room for error. Jordan Wicks was just reinstated from the injured list a few days ago, so the club can still have a five-man rotation without Steele, with Wicks slotting in next to Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad and Kyle Hendricks. It’s been a rough year for Hendricks, who currently sports a 6.60 ERA overall and was been bumped to the bullpen earlier in the season. Perhaps the return of Wicks would have sent him to a relief role again but that might not be possible now that Steele has been subtracted from the equation.
Cubs Don’t Expect To Be Deadline Buyers
The Cubs’ deadline trajectory has been an oft-discussed topic over the course of the past few weeks, with the team sitting at or near the bottom of the NL Central but also within striking distance of the final NL Wild Card spot. They’ve ostensibly explored possibilities on both ends of the buy/sell spectrum, showing interest in Toronto catcher Danny Jansen while also reportedly talking with both the Yankees and Red Sox about the potential of a Jameson Taillon trade. The Cubs dropped their first two games coming out of the All-Star break to a D-backs team that’s now tied for the final Wild Card spot, though they dodged a sweep in an extra-inning win Sunday.
While the Cubs are 3.5 games out in the Wild Card hunt, the latest report from Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic indicates that the Cubs aren’t planning to be buyers at next week’s trade deadline. That’s not an indication there’ll be any kind of prominent fire sale for the Cubs either, however. Chicago hopes to contend next year and isn’t likely to move players who are under control unless they receive big league-ready talent in return.
As for the Cubs’ slate of rental players, there’s simply not much to peddle to other clubs. Drew Smyly is sitting on an impressive 2.92 ERA in 37 relief innings, but he’s also walked 10.2% of his opponents and is playing on a contract other teams will want to avoid. Smyly is owed the balance of an $8.5MM salary for the current season (about $3.2MM) in addition to a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2025 season.
Righty Kyle Hendricks is a free agent at season’s end but isn’t going to draw any interest with a $16MM salary and a 6.69 ERA (unless the Cubs eat the entirety of his contract, perhaps). Hector Neris has a 3.74 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate in 33 2/3 innings — but he’s also walked a career-worst 16.1% of opponents. Neris is playing on a $9MM salary, and his $9MM club option will convert to a player option if he appears in 24 more games this season (60 total). That’s going to turn off any potentially interested parties. Cody Bellinger can become a free agent at season’s end, but he’s on the injured list with a fractured finger and the two opt-out provisions on his three-year deal would’ve made trading him extraordinarily difficult anyhow.
The Athletic’s report at least raises the speculative possibility of listening to offers for starter Justin Steele, though with three-plus seasons of club control remaining, the price would presumably be as high or even higher than the asks for crosstown ace Garrett Crochet (two years of club control remaining) and AL Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal (the latter of whom is not expected to be traded). There’s no reason to think the Cubs would outwardly shop Steele, but listening to see if someone steps up with a Juan Soto-esque haul for last year’s fifth-place NL Cy Young finisher is sensible enough.
With regard to Taillon, there’d be some sense to moving him even if the team doesn’t envision a broad-reaching sell-off. In signing any free agent to a long-term deal, a team is most interested in the first couple years of said contract. The 2025-26 seasons will be Taillon’s age-33 and age-34 campaigns. He’ll earn $18MM in each season on his slightly backloaded $68MM deal. Moving him would free up some money to potentially spend on a younger pitcher this offseason — or perhaps on another area of need entirely.
The Cubs control Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks through at least the 2027 season. Prospects Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell are rising quickly through the system. There’s some depth from which to deal, and a Taillon trade could bring in talent, shed future payroll and reduce future luxury tax obligations. Taillon wouldn’t command nearly the same type of haul as Steele for a number of reasons (age, salary, general talent level), but there aren’t many arms available so the Cubs could conceivably take advantage of that shortage and see what the market bears.
It’s worth emphasizing, too, that most teams’ plans remain pretty fluid this time of year. While teams facing a gaps of eight, nine, ten or more games in their respective postseason pursuits are sure to focus on selling (just as clubs in the opposite position will primarily focus on adding), nearly half the teams in baseball exist in a relative purgatory between those two ends of the spectrum. There’s currently a three-team tie for the third NL Wild Card spot (Mets, D-backs, Padres), and another five teams are within four games of that final spot — the Cubs among them. In the American League, there are four teams within six games of the final Wild Card spot.
For instance, if the Cubs snapped off six or seven straight wins beginning today, they’d presumably be far more open to the idea of adding some pieces. That’s particularly true because their next three games come against the division-leading Brewers. But a win streak of that nature is always a long shot, and it’s plenty notable that for the time being, Chicago isn’t viewing itself as a team that will trade even lower-caliber minor league talent in exchange for some marginal rental upgrades. Time will tell whether the players on the field can push the front office to take a more aggressive stance, but right now it seems likely the Cubs are in for a relatively quiet deadline.
Cubs Notes: Bellinger, Suzuki, Steele, Mervis
The Cubs currently sit at a solid 20-14 record, just one game back of the Brewers for the NL Central lead. That strong start has come in spite of a number of key injuries: staff ace Justin Steele was pulled from his Opening Day start against the Rangers due to a hamstring strain and hasn’t taken the mound in the big leagues since, while the club more recently lost both Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki to rib and oblique injuries, respectively.
Fortunately for Chicago, however, it appears that all three stars are nearing a return to action. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including ESPN’s Jesse Rogers) this afternoon that both Suzuki and Bellinger could be back in action some time next week, while MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that Counsell indicated to reporters yesterday that Steele is slated to be activated from the IL and take the ball in Monday’s game against the Padres.
All three updates are fantastic news for the Cubs. When Suzuki was placed on the IL on April 15, the Cubs’ offense had produced a solid 108 wRC+ (11th in the majors) but the offense has scuffled in the right fielder’s absence with just a 93 wRC+ (17th in the majors) since then. The club’s struggles at the plate have become even more pronounced since Bellinger was placed on the shelf, as the club has posted a 73 wRC+ (24th in the majors) with an ISO of just .101 since then.
The club will have some interesting roster decisions to make upon the duo’s return, as top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong has made a solid impression with a 90 wRC+ and elite defense in center field while Bellinger has been on the shelf while veteran fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman has capitalized upon everyday opportunities and is now hitting a scorching .276/.406/.460 with a wRC+ of 154 in 106 trips to the plate this season. The most likely outcome appears to be Crow-Armstrong returning to Triple-A while Tauchman takes over as the club’s regular DH, with Bellinger and Suzuki immediately returning to their usual places in center and right field. That being said, it’s possible the club views Crow-Armstrong’s defense and baserunning as too valuable to lose and instead looks to carry him as a bench player even after the return of Bellinger and Suzuki.
While Chicago’s offense has struggled without its two star outfielders, the rotation has flourished even without the fifth-placer for last year’s NL Cy Young award. The Cubs’ rotation has a collective ERA of 3.35 that ranks sevent-best in the majors this year. Shota Imanaga (0.78 ERA), Jameson Taillon (1.13 ERA) and Javier Assad (1.97 ERA) have been nothing short of dominant as they’ve led the group in Steele’s absence while youngsters such as Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks have combined for a solid 3.27 ERA in 11 starts to fill out the back of the rotation. That being said, Steele’s return would allow the club to return either Wesneski or Brown to a beleaguered bullpen that has struggled to a well below average 4.50 ERA and ranks bottom-five in the majors in terms of fWAR.
In less positive Cubs news, the club optioned first baseman Matt Mervis to Triple-A Iowa today, recalling utility infielder Miles Mastrobuoni to take his place on the roster. Mervis got top-100 prospect buzz entering last season thanks to his rapid climb through the minor leagues that saw him reach Triple-A in just his second professional season, but he’s stalled out at the level despite an excellent .297/.393/.556 slash line at the level for his career.
He’s received two cups of coffee in the majors to this point in his career but has failed to hit in either of them, with a .155/.222/.259 career slash line in 127 trips to the plate at the big league level that includes a nine-game stint this season that saw him go just 3-for-26 with a 30.8% strikeout rate. Mervis will now return to the minor leagues to await his next opportunity, though at this point he appears to be blocked by the likes of Michael Busch, Bellinger, Tauchman, and even Crow-Armstrong in terms of left-handed options for the club.
Justin Steele To Begin Rehab Assignment Next Week
The Cubs have been without left-hander Justin Steele since he was pulled from his Opening Day start against the Rangers in the fifth inning due to a hamstring strain last month. It appears that the club’s time without their staff ace may be nearing an end, however, as Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times relayed this afternoon that (per manager Craig Counsell) Steele is set to join the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Iowa for a rehab assignment in the coming days. Counsell added that Wednesday is the likely target for Steele’s rehab appearance, with MLB.com’s injury tracker noting that the southpaw threw 47 pitches in an extended Spring Training game yesterday.
Steele, 28, has surprised in recent years by emerging as a front-of-the-rotation caliber arm in Chicago. The lefty was selected by the Cubs in the fifth round of the 2014 draft but did not make his big league debut until 2021, when he pitched to a mediocre 4.26 ERA and 5.52 FIP in 57 innings of work. When Steele returned to the club’s rotation the following year, however, it was clear he had taken his game to the next level: in 55 starts since the start of the 2022 campaign, Steele has pitched to an excellent 3.09 ERA (140 ERA+) with an even better 3.06 FIP.
While Steele’s 24.6% strikeout rate during a 2023 campaign that saw him make his first All Star appearance and finish fifth in NL Cy Young award voting was right around league average, his strong 5.0% walk rate and 50.3% groundball rate were both excellent according to Statcast, ranking in the 93rd and 83rd percentiles respectively. Steele will bring that well-rounded profile back to a Cubs rotation that has dealt with plenty of injuries to this point in the 2024 campaign. In addition to Steele, the Cubs have spent time this season without veteran right-handers Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. While the former has performed well in two starts since returning from the shelf, the latter struggled badly even when healthy enough to take the mound with a 12.00 ERA in four starts.
Fortunately for the Cubs, a quartet of unproven arms have handled things admirably in the absence of more established arms. Leading the charge has been 30-year-old lefty Shota Imanaga, who signed a four-year, $53MM contract with the Cubs over the winter after being posted by the Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s NPB. Imanaga has been sensational in the early going of his first MLB season, with a 0.98 ERA that leads all qualified MLB starters backed up by a strong 2.36 FIP in 27 2/3 innings of work.
Sophomore swingman Javier Assad has been joined by rookies Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown to fill out the rest of the club’s rotation, and the trio have performed admirably to this point with a combined 2.82 ERA in 60 2/3 innings of work in 12 starts. The Cubs are surely looking forward to Steele’s return even in spite of those strong performances, of course. With the lefty seemingly on track for a return in early May, it appears the most likely course of action for Chicago is to move Brown into a full-time bullpen role when the club’s ace is ready to go.
Brown’s debut season in the majors has gotten off to a solid start as he’s swung between the Chicago rotation and bullpen. After allowing six runs in just 1 2/3 relief innings against the Rangers during his MLB debut, Brown has settled in and dazzled with a 1.02 ERA, 1.88 FIP, and 27.0% strikeout rate in 17 2/3 innings of work across five appearances (two starts). Brown’s move to a full-time bullpen role would surely help a Cubs bullpen that recently lost long relief arm Drew Smyly to the injured list and saw closer Adbert Alzolay removed from the closer role last week after converting just three saves in seven opportunities so far this year.
Cubs Notes: Taillon, Steele, Wisdom
Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon opened the season on the injured list after missing all of Spring Training due to calf and back issues, but club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including the Chicago Sun Times’ Maddie Lee) that Taillon’s next start will come with the big league club in Chicago after a strong rehab start from the 32-year-old Friday night during which he struck out 4 in 3 2/3 scoreless innings while building up to 68 pitches.
Taillon is in the second year of the four-year, $68MM deal he signed with Chicago and enters 2024 hoping to get off to a better start after a brutal first half sank his 2023 campaign. The right-hander pitched to solid results in his first 3 starts with the Cubs last year but struggled badly following a groin injury he sustained in mid-April, posting a 7.61 ERA and 6.07 FIP in his next eleven starts. From there, however, the right-hander appeared to turn a corner and performed more like the mid-rotation arm he was signed to be, with a 3.38 ERA and 4.24 FIP over his final 90 2/3 innings of work.
If the veteran righty can maintain that form he showed in the second half of the season last year, it would provide a major boost to the Cubs’ rotation. The club has been forced to lean heavily on youngsters Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Ben Brown to this point in the young 2024 campaign due to injuries sustained by Taillon and ace lefty Justin Steele in addition to the struggles of veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who has posted a 12.08 ERA across the first three starts of his 2024 campaign. Taillon’s return to the rotation could allow one of those young pitchers to move to the bullpen, where the club has seen closer Adbert Alzolay and veteran free agent signing Hector Neris scuffle somewhat to open the season.
Looking beyond Taillon, it seems as though more reinforcements for the club’s pitching staff could be on the way in the coming weeks, as Counsell indicated to reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that Steele was also making progress in his bid to return from the hamstring strain he sustained during his Opening Day start against the Rangers. Per Counsell, Steele was scheduled to throw a 25-pitch bullpen session yesterday. It’s a notable step forward for the lefty, which MLB.com adds comes on the heels of a 75-pitch simulated game pitched off flat ground in San Diego earlier this week.
The news appears to leave Steele on track to return sometime next month. That Steele appears to be on track to return fairly quickly is surely a relief for Chicago, as the lefty has broken out as one of the game’s best starters in recent years. Dating back to June of the 2022 season, Steele has pitched to a sterling 2.73 ERA with a 3.05 FIP across 45 starts. In that time, only Justin Verlander, Shohei Ohtani, and Blake Snell have posted a lower ERA in at least 250 innings of work, while only Verlander, Spencer Strider, Kevin Gausman, and Sonny Gray boast a lower FIP.
Also on the mend from injury is slugger Patrick Wisdom, who began the season on the injured list due to back strain. The 32-year-old is six games into a rehab assignment with Triple-A Iowa, however, and could be rapidly nearing a return. Counsell told reporters recently (including those at MLB.com) that Wisdom could rejoin the club at some point during their current road trip. The Cubs will finish a series in Seattle this afternoon before wrapping their road trip with a three-game set in Arizona.
Should Wisdom end up joining the club in Arizona, that could be the end of veteran first baseman Garrett Cooper‘s time with Chicago. Cooper has impressed in part-time duty with five hits including a double, a triple, and a home run in his first 15 plate appearances with the club. Even so, it’s hard to imagine the Cubs having room for both the 2022 All Star and Wisdom on the roster when Michael Busch and Christopher Morel appear to have locked down the infield corners for the foreseeable future. Cooper cannot be optioned to the minor leagues after signing a minor league deal with the club in free agency, though each of Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, and Miles Mastrobuoni have options remaining should the Cubs wish to retain Cooper on the big league roster.
Justin Steele Out Until At Least May
Cubs ace Justin Steele exited his first start of the season with a hamstring strain, and he’s looking at an absence that’s more than double the minimum 15 days on the injured list. Manager Craig Counsell told the Cubs beat today that Steele has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain and is expected to miss the entire month of April (X link via Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic). The team doesn’t have an exact timetable yet, as they’re waiting for Steele to be able to walk without a limp before mapping things out more concretely.
Steele was cruising through a well-deserved first Opening Day start of his career when he tumbled awkwardly while fielding a bunt off the bat of Leody Taveras. The 28-year-old lefty managed to make an impressive play and throw out the speedy Taveras but immediately grabbed at his leg in the aftermath of the play before exiting with a trainer. The Cubs put him on the injured list earlier today and called up pitching prospect Ben Brown.
Losing Steele for at least a sixth of the season is a significant blow to a Cubs club that has its sights set on a return to the postseason in what’s viewed as a wide-open NL Central division. The left-hander was never considered to be a premium prospect but has nevertheless climbed from an unheralded fifth-round pick to not just a solid member of the starting staff but an All-Star and top-five finisher in National League Cy Young voting.
Steele made 30 starts for the Cubs in 2023 and pitched 173 1/3 innings with a 3.06 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and 49.4% ground-ball rate. That marked his second straight season of a low-3.00s ERA, but Steele dramatically improved his walk rate in 2023 and enjoyed his success over a much larger sample in ’23 than the prior season. Including his 2021 rookie showing and this year’s lone appearance, he’s pitched to a 3.28 ERA in 354 big league innings.
With Steele sidelined for more than a month and perhaps even a fair bit more than that — Counsell did not specify whether early May or late May was the expectation — the Cubs’ rotation depth will be put to the test early. Chicago signed star NPB lefty Shota Imanaga to a four-year contract over the winter, effectively replacing righty Marcus Stroman, who eventually signed with the Yankees as a free agent. Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and bounceback hopeful Jameson Taillon will lead a staff that’ll now be quite young in the four and five spots.
The 24-year-old Brown, a well-regarded pitching prospect whom the Cubs acquired from the Phillies in the 2022 David Robertson trade, will make his big league debut when he first takes the mound. He has significant command issues in Triple-A last year (15.8% walk rate in 72 2/3 innings) but impressed in spring training and has strong overall numbers up through Double-A. Javier Assad has a 3.06 ERA in 41 career appearances, but more than half those have come out of the bullpen. He’s also posted a below-average 20.2% strikeout rate against a higher-than-average 9.9% walk rate.
The Cubs have a few soft spots on the schedule over the next month-plus, but they’ll face more competitive teams than non-contenders. Their April schedule will see them square off against the Dodgers, Astros, D-backs, Mariners, Padres, Marlins, Red Sox and Rockies. They draw the Mets, Brewers (twice), Padres, Pirates (twice), Braves (twice) and Cardinals in May.
Cubs Promote Ben Brown, Place Justin Steele On 15-Day IL
2:34PM: The Cubs officially announced Brown’s promotion and Steele’s IL placement. Steele’s time on the injured list retroactively begins on March 29, and his injury was designated as a left hamstring strain.
12:59PM: The Cubs will call up right-hander Ben Brown from Triple-A today, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (via X). Brown will likely take the roster spot of Justin Steele, who is ticketed for the 15-day injured list after suffering a hamstring injury on Opening Day.
It would also appear that Brown will take over Steele’s place in the rotation for the time being, with Brown lined up to make his MLB debut on either Tuesday or Wednesday when the Cubs host the Rockies. It will be quite the moment for 24-year-old Brown, whose pro career began as a 33rd-round draft pick for the Phillies in 2017 when injuries contributed to his fall down the board. As noted by Baseball America’s scouting report, Brown has had to overcome a burst appendix, a Tommy John surgery, an elbow strain, and some time on the Covid-related injured list before finally getting healthy in 2022 and getting some extended time on the mound.
That season brought about another change for Brown, when Philadelphia dealt him to the Cubs at the trade deadline in the David Robertson deal. Making his Triple-A debut in 2023, Brown posted a 5.33 ERA in 72 2/3 innings for Iowa before missing about a month with a lat problem.
A 15.8% walk rate was the biggest factor in Brown’s Triple-A struggles, and he has occasionally experienced some control problems in past years as well. The strikeout potential is evident, however, as Brown has a 31.1% strikeout rate over his 297 career minor league innings, and both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline give 60-grades to his fastball and curve, with Pipeline adding a 60 to his slider as well. Clearly Brown has plenty of stuff, though both scouting outlets wonder if his future might ultimately be as a reliever if he can’t stay healthy or deliver more consistent control.
Until that decision has to be made, the Cubs will see what Brown can do as a starter. Between Steele’s hamstring issue and Jameson Taillon already on the IL with back problems, Chicago has had to made some early dips in its rotation depth, which allowed both Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks to make the Opening Day rotation. Assad and Wicks have limited MLB experience, and Brown and NPB import Shota Imanaga have never pitched in the majors, leaving Kyle Hendricks as far and away the most experienced healthy starter in Wrigleyville. Veteran Drew Smyly was slotted for bullpen work rather than the starting rotation, and it seems like the Cubs will keep Smyly in that role even with Steele now sidelined.