Justin Steele Out Until At Least May

Cubs ace Justin Steele exited his first start of the season with a hamstring strain, and he’s looking at an absence that’s more than double the minimum 15 days on the injured list. Manager Craig Counsell told the Cubs beat today that Steele has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain and is expected to miss the entire month of April (X link via Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic). The team doesn’t have an exact timetable yet, as they’re waiting for Steele to be able to walk without a limp before mapping things out more concretely.

Steele was cruising through a well-deserved first Opening Day start of his career when he tumbled awkwardly while fielding a bunt off the bat of Leody Taveras. The 28-year-old lefty managed to make an impressive play and throw out the speedy Taveras but immediately grabbed at his leg in the aftermath of the play before exiting with a trainer. The Cubs put him on the injured list earlier today and called up pitching prospect Ben Brown.

Losing Steele for at least a sixth of the season is a significant blow to a Cubs club that has its sights set on a return to the postseason in what’s viewed as a wide-open NL Central division. The left-hander was never considered to be a premium prospect but has nevertheless climbed from an unheralded fifth-round pick to not just a solid member of the starting staff but an All-Star and top-five finisher in National League Cy Young voting.

Steele made 30 starts for the Cubs in 2023 and pitched 173  1/3 innings with a 3.06 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and 49.4% ground-ball rate. That marked his second straight season of a low-3.00s ERA, but Steele dramatically improved his walk rate in 2023 and enjoyed his success over a much larger sample in ’23 than the prior season. Including his 2021 rookie showing and this year’s lone appearance, he’s pitched to a 3.28 ERA in 354 big league innings.

With Steele sidelined for more than a month and perhaps even a fair bit more than that — Counsell did not specify whether early May or late May was the expectation — the Cubs’ rotation depth will be put to the test early. Chicago signed star NPB lefty Shota Imanaga to a four-year contract over the winter, effectively replacing righty Marcus Stroman, who eventually signed with the Yankees as a free agent. Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and bounceback hopeful Jameson Taillon will lead a staff that’ll now be quite young in the four and five spots.

The 24-year-old Brown, a well-regarded pitching prospect whom the Cubs acquired from the Phillies in the 2022 David Robertson trade, will make his big league debut when he first takes the mound. He has significant command issues in Triple-A last year (15.8% walk rate in 72 2/3 innings) but impressed in spring training and has strong overall numbers up through Double-A. Javier Assad has a 3.06 ERA in 41 career appearances, but more than half those have come out of the bullpen. He’s also posted a below-average 20.2% strikeout rate against a higher-than-average 9.9% walk rate.

The Cubs have a few soft spots on the schedule over the next month-plus, but they’ll face more competitive teams than non-contenders. Their April schedule will see them square off against the Dodgers, Astros, D-backs, Mariners, Padres, Marlins, Red Sox and Rockies. They draw the Mets, Brewers (twice), Padres, Pirates (twice), Braves (twice) and Cardinals in May.

Cubs Promote Ben Brown, Place Justin Steele On 15-Day IL

2:34PM: The Cubs officially announced Brown’s promotion and Steele’s IL placement.  Steele’s time on the injured list retroactively begins on March 29, and his injury was designated as a left hamstring strain.

12:59PM: The Cubs will call up right-hander Ben Brown from Triple-A today, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray (via X).  Brown will likely take the roster spot of Justin Steele, who is ticketed for the 15-day injured list after suffering a hamstring injury on Opening Day.

It would also appear that Brown will take over Steele’s place in the rotation for the time being, with Brown lined up to make his MLB debut on either Tuesday or Wednesday when the Cubs host the Rockies.  It will be quite the moment for 24-year-old Brown, whose pro career began as a 33rd-round draft pick for the Phillies in 2017 when injuries contributed to his fall down the board.  As noted by Baseball America’s scouting report, Brown has had to overcome a burst appendix, a Tommy John surgery, an elbow strain, and some time on the Covid-related injured list before finally getting healthy in 2022 and getting some extended time on the mound.

That season brought about another change for Brown, when Philadelphia dealt him to the Cubs at the trade deadline in the David Robertson deal.  Making his Triple-A debut in 2023, Brown posted a 5.33 ERA in 72 2/3 innings for Iowa before missing about a month with a lat problem.

A 15.8% walk rate was the biggest factor in Brown’s Triple-A struggles, and he has occasionally experienced some control problems in past years as well.  The strikeout potential is evident, however, as Brown has a 31.1% strikeout rate over his 297 career minor league innings, and both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline give 60-grades to his fastball and curve, with Pipeline adding a 60 to his slider as well.  Clearly Brown has plenty of stuff, though both scouting outlets wonder if his future might ultimately be as a reliever if he can’t stay healthy or deliver more consistent control.

Until that decision has to be made, the Cubs will see what Brown can do as a starter.  Between Steele’s hamstring issue and Jameson Taillon already on the IL with back problems, Chicago has had to made some early dips in its rotation depth, which allowed both Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks to make the Opening Day rotation.  Assad and Wicks have limited MLB experience, and Brown and NPB import Shota Imanaga have never pitched in the majors, leaving Kyle Hendricks as far and away the most experienced healthy starter in Wrigleyville.  Veteran Drew Smyly was slotted for bullpen work rather than the starting rotation, and it seems like the Cubs will keep Smyly in that role even with Steele now sidelined.

Justin Steele Likely Headed To IL With Hamstring Injury

Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele left his Opening Day start early on Thursday after fielding a bunt and falling as he flipped the ball to first base. He seemed to be holding his left hamstring as he walked off the field, per Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. The team later confirmed to reporters (including Sharma) that Steele exited the game with left hamstring tightness.

After the game, a 4-3 loss to the Rangers in extra innings, Cubs manager Craig Counsell used the word “strain” to describe Steele’s injury (per Sharma). He added that the All-Star left-hander will likely go on the injured list, but as Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune notes, the skipper would not speculate about how much time Steele could miss. The southpaw will undergo an MRI on Friday (per Montemurro), after which the team will likely have a better idea about the severity of his injury and how long he might spend on the IL.

Counsell told reporters, including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, that the team does not yet have a plan for who will take Steele’s spot in the rotation. Left-hander Drew Smyly and right-hander Hayden Wesneski seem to be the most likely candidates, given their presence on the 40-man roster and recent experience pitching out of the big league rotation. Smyly, 34, made 23 starts for the Cubs last year, while Wesneski, 26, made 11. However, Smyly found success in a bullpen role down the stretch in 2023; he made some starts this spring but was largely preparing to start the season as a reliever. Meanwhile, Wesneski struggled tremendously as a starter last year (5.51 ERA, 6.26 FIP) and looked even worse in six outings (four starts) this spring.

Ben Brown, 24, is one more name on the 40-man roster to keep an eye on. He transitioned to a bullpen role last season, but he has recent starting experience and looked sharper than either Smyly or Wesneski this spring. What’s more, his move to the bullpen may have simply been a way to accelerate his path to the major leagues, not a permanent change. He was quite good in 19 minor league starts last season, pitching to a 3.81 ERA and racking up 120 strikeouts in only 85 innings pitched. However, his lack of experience may work against him; Brown has yet to make his MLB debut.

Whether it is Smyly, Wesneski, Brown, or another arm entirely, the Cubs have a difficult decision to make before what would have been Steele’s next turn in the rotation: the final game of the home opener series against the Rockies on Wednesday, April 3.

Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool

Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.

A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”

As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.

Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.

The following 10 players got more than $1MM:

Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.

Blake Snell Wins National League Cy Young Award

Free agent left-hander Blake Snell has been named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Logan Webb of the Giants finished second in the voting while Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks finished third.

Snell, 31 next month, has now earned a Cy Young award for the second time in his career. The first trophy was in the American League, with Snell winning as a member of the Rays in 2018. He is just the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues, joining Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Max Scherzer, Gaylord Perry and Roy Halladay.

The left-handed Snell hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career, with both his health and performance wobbling over the years, but his two award-winning campaigns have been excellent. His first trophy came after posting an earned run average of 1.89 with the Rays and this second piece of hardware was earned by posting a 2.25 for the Padres this year. His most recent campaign saw him walk 13.3% of batters faced but he danced around those by striking out 31.5% of his opponents and keeping the ball on the ground at a 44.4% clip. He probably had some help from the baseball gods as his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate were both on the lucky side of average, but his punchouts and grounders surely helped him somewhat as well.

Outside of those two campaigns, the results have been far more mixed. He got to 180 innings pitched in his award-winning campaigns but hasn’t reached 130 in any other season. He also hasn’t posted an ERA lower than 3.24 in any of them.

Of course, that doesn’t matter for the Cy Young voting. It’s a single-season award and his year-to-year consistency is not something for the voters to consider. Snell’s voting wasn’t quite unanimous but he got 28 of the 30 first-place votes. But his overall track record will be of concern to the clubs considering signing him as a free agent. Pitchers with multiple Cy Youngs don’t hit free agency every day but it’s also incredibly rare for a pitcher to put so many runners on base without allowing them to score. Regardless of those concerns, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a contract of $200MM over seven years and he’s already garnering plenty of interest.

Webb had a 3.25 ERA in 216 innings for the Giants this year, which got him one of the first-place votes and 17 for second. Gallen had a 3.47 ERA in his 210 innings, which led to one first-place vote and three for second. In the full voting, which can be seen here, votes also went to Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Zack Wheeler, Kodai Senga and Corbin Burnes.

MLB Announces 2023 All-Star Rosters

The starters for the 2023 All-Star Game were already announced earlier this week, and today the league revealed the reserve selections and the pitching staffs for the National League and American League teams.  Fan balloting determined the game’s starters, while the reserves and pitchers were picked by a combination of the player ballot and selections from the league office.

This won’t be the final list of players involved, as some more substitutions will be announced later for players who are injured or who have opted not to participate.  Every team must have at least one player represented at the Midsummer Classic, and the starting pitchers for the game will be announced on July 10.

Of note, Shohei Ohtani will be in the game as both a DH and as a pitcher for the third consecutive season.  The Braves led all teams with eight All-Stars, while the Rangers weren’t far behind with six players chosen.  This year’s All-Star Game takes place in Seattle on July 11.

National League

American League

Cubs Activate Justin Steele, Place Patrick Wisdom On 10-Day IL

As expected, the Cubs activated Justin Steele from the 15-day injured list, as the left-hander is scheduled to start today’s game against the Orioles.  Steele will take the place of Patrick Wisdom, as Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter link) reports that Wisdom is being placed on the 10-day IL due to a right wrist sprain.

Wisdom was replaced by pinch-hitter Ian Happ in the sixth inning of yesterday’s 10-3 Cubs win over Baltimore, a move that seemed like in-game strategy at the time but could have been related to Wisdom’s wrist problem.  The 31-year-old infielder also has only two hits in his last 36 plate appearances, so it is possible this wrist sprain might have occurred a while ago, and Wisdom was trying to play through the discomfort.

The recent slump has dropped Wisdom’s slash line to .196/.285/.467 for the season, with 14 homers over 208 plate appearances.  While that production still translates to a slightly above-average 102 wRC+, it continues Wisdom’s trend of being a power-centric bat who offers little beyond the long ball.  Wisdom has hit .213/.298/.465 with 67 homers over 1117 PA with Chicago since the start of the 2021 season.

Wisdom has played mostly third base this season, with a handful of appearances as first base and in both corner outfield spots.  Nick Madrigal has been seeing regular work at third base since being recalled from Triple-A a little over a week ago, and the Cubs might prefer to see what the 26-year-old Madrigal can do with more frequent playing time, which might make it tough for Wisdom to work his way back into the lineup once he returns from the IL.

Steele returns after missing only slightly more than the minimum 15 days, which is a great outcome given the ominous nature of forearm strains.  However, Steele’s strain didn’t involve any structural damage, so the southpaw was able to make a quick recovery.  Steele has been excellent in 2023, posting a 2.65 ERA over 68 innings while relying on outstanding control and one of the league’s best soft-contact rates.

Cubs Place Justin Steele On 15-Day Injured List

The Cubs placed left-hander Justin Steele on the 15-day injured list due to a left forearm strain.  The placement is retroactive to June 1.  Taking Steele’s spot on the active roster is catcher Miguel Amaya, who was called up from Triple-A Iowa.

As detailed in reports earlier today, the MRI on Steele’s forearm revealed no structural damage, leaving even some possibility that Steele might miss a start but avoid doing on the injured list altogether.  However, it appears as though the Cubs have decided to err on the side of caution, which is understandable given the larger-scale injuries that can be associated with forearm problems.  For now, it would seem possible that Steele might be able to return after the minimum 15 days, making this IL stint perhaps just a blip in what has been an otherwise excellent season for the 27-year-old southpaw.

Steele has a 2.65 ERA over 12 starts and 68 innings, along with a strong 5.9% walk rate and an elite 28% hard-hit ball rate.  Steele’s 21.4% strikeout rate is well below average, but his ability to both keep the ball on the ground (48.4% grounder rate) and induce soft contact has been a winning recipe for success, and even a step up from his quality numbers in 2021-22.

The forearm problem arose during Steele’s start on Wednesday, as he was perfect over three innings against the Pirates before being removed from the game.  Hayden Wesneski is slated to take Steele’s spot in the rotation, and Wesneski is scheduled to start on Tuesday against the Angels.

Amaya made his MLB debut by playing in six games for Chicago earlier this season, and the former top-100 prospect will now get another look at the big league level.  With Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart taking up the catching duties, it remains to be seen how much playing time Amaya might get during this latest stint in the Show, and it might end up being a relatively brief stay until the Cubs feel the need to call up a fresh arm.

NL Central Notes: Steele, Votto, Adames, Miley, Velasquez

Cubs fans received some positive news regarding left-hander Justin Steele yesterday. The 27-year-old hurler was pulled from his start on Wednesday after just three innings of work due to forearm tightess and underwent an MRI on Thursday to determine the severity of the issue. As noted by MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian on Twitter, Steele described the result of the MRI as “good news” and said that the plan is for him to play catch today before determining the path forward. With that being said, WSCR-AM’s Bruce Levine notes that a source considers Steele “likely” to miss his next start, which he would otherwise be on schedule take Tuesday against the Angels.

After securing a spot in the starting rotation to open the 2022 campaign, Steele ended last season looking like an above-average, mid-rotation or better starter over 24 starts, posting a 3.18 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 24.6% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, and 51.2% groundball rate in 119 innings of work. Only budding Rays ace Shane McClanahan managed to post a higher strikeout rate while maintaining a groundball rate over 50% last year. What’s more, Steele has managed to build on his strong first season as a regular starter for the this season, with a 2.65 ERA that’s only bested by rotation-mate Marcus Stroman and Braves youngster Bryce Elder in the National League.

The news that his forearm strain isn’t anything serious and he’s unlikely to miss significant time is surely a relief for a Cubs team that has relied on the young lefty to carry their pitching staff alongside Stroman, with the duo representing 18 of the club’s 25 quality starts in 2023.  With that said, it seems likely that right-hander Hayden Wesneski will fill in for Steele in the event the injured left-hander does miss a start. Wesneski struggled to a 4.81 ERA and 5.65 FIP this season after earning the fifth spot in the club’s rotation with a dominant performance in spring training, leaving the Cubs to remove him from the rotation when Kyle Hendricks returned to the mound from injury.

More from around the NL Central:

  • According to MLB.com, Brewers shortstop Willy Adames has resumed baseball activities for the first time since he was struck by a foul ball in last week’s game against the Giants, landing him on the 7-day concussion IL. Adames is currently working out with the the club’s High-A affiliate rather than joining the club on their flight to Cincinnati in order to avoid the wear-and-tear of air travel, according to manager Craig Counsell. The club plans to decide whether or not Adames, who has struggled to a 84 wRC+ in 51 games this season, needs a minor league rehab assignment before he can return to big league action later this weekend. In the meantime, they figure to continue going with a combination of Brice Turang, Owen Miller, and Andruw Monasterio up the middle.
  • Sticking with the Brewers, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy notes that left-hander Wade Miley is making good progress on his rehab from a posterior serratus strain. While he was initially expected to be shelved for six to eight weeks, McCalvy reports that if Miley is able to avoid any setbacks he’s currently set to return from the IL after just four weeks after throwing a bullpen session on Thursday. Miley posted eight solid starts for the Brewers prior to his injury as the veteran lefty threw 41 2/3 innings of 3.67 ERA baseball.
  • Reds first baseman and future Hall of Famer Joey Votto is set to begin a rehab assignment with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Louisville today, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. Votto has been on the shelf since he underwent surgery on his rotator cuff back in August, and posted a wRC+ of just 92 in 91 games prior to the surgery. Still, he figures to share first base and DH duties with Spencer Steer upon his return to big league action.
  • Right-hander Vince Velasquez was activated from the injured list and returned to the Pirates‘ rotation just last week, but immediately felt discomfort in his right elbow and returned to the injured list. According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, his current IL-stay will not be a short one, as the veteran is expected to be transferred to the 60-day IL in the near future. Velasquez had pitched well for the Pirates across eight starts this season prior to his injury, with a 3.86 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. Velasquez’s return to the IL leaves the club with a rotation of Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, Johan Oviedo, Rich Hill, and Luis Ortiz.

Justin Steele To Undergo MRI Due To Forearm Tightness

4:25pm: Steele will undergo an MRI, Ross tells Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.

4:05pm: Cubs left-hander Justin Steele was removed from today’s start after throwing three perfect innings. The trainer had visited him in that third inning and Steele finished the frame but didn’t return in the fourth. The club later announced to reporters, including Jesse Rogers of ESPN, that the southpaw was removed due to forearm tightness.

It’s too early for the club to have any kind of firm diagnosis on the issue, but Steele will undoubtedly undergo further testing to get a clearer picture of the situation. Forearm tightness is an ominous combination of words for a pitcher as it often precedes a serious ailment, though that’s not always the case. Nonetheless, it will be a situation to monitor given that Steele has only grown in importance recently.

Now 27, Steele broke out last year by posting a 3.18 ERA in 119 innings over 24 starts. He struck out 24.6% of batters faced, walked 9.8% and got grounders at a 51.2% rate. He’s only further cemented himself in the Chicago rotation this year, as his outing today dropped his ERA to 2.65. His strikeout and ground ball rates have declined slightly, but he’s also allowing far fewer walks and home runs.

With the recent return of Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs have a set rotation that also consists of Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly and Steele. The strength of that group pushed Hayden Wesneski out of the picture, as he was optioned to the minors earlier this month. He was recalled yesterday with the plan of him helping out of the bullpen, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. That has come into play quickly, as he jumped into today’s game when Steele departed, throwing 59 pitches over 3 2/3 innings.

Prior to getting optioned, Wesneski had been working as a starter and could perhaps do so again if Steele needs to miss any time. That would likely be a downgrade for the club, as the righty had a 5.03 ERA in his eight starts this year. He’s still young, 25 years old, and could certainly take a step forward. But Steele has been one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball in many categories this year, including ERA, FIP and fWAR. It would be unfair to expect just about any pitcher to step in and replicate that kind of production.

There could also potentially be effects elsewhere in the club’s system, as Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported earlier today that the club was open to various paths to supplementing its bullpen. Codi Heuer is working his way back from last year’s Tommy John surgery, but the club has also seemingly given some thought to promoting youngsters like Ben Brown or Daniel Palencia. “Everyone is on the radar at this point,” manager David Ross said. “We’re hoping Codi comes back soon. That could be, hopefully, another big-league arm that is able to help us out. Ben Brown has been throwing the ball really well in the starter role. Palencia has been sent to the ‘pen, to work out of the ‘pen and try to learn that role — what that consists of, how to go back-to-back, the recovery with all that. There’s a plan in place, for sure, and big-picture stuff. But this is what we’ve got right now. We have conversations daily about those things.”

Brown, 23, came over from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. He has a 2.25 ERA through nine starts this year, split between Double-A and Triple-A. Palencia, meanwhile, came over from the Athletics in the 2021 Andrew Chafin deal. He had a 5.87 ERA through five Double-A starts this year before getting bumped to the Triple-A bullpen for his two most recent appearances. Neither player has made their major league debut yet but Brown does have a 40-man roster spot.

The club is scrambling a bit to try to cover for a poor performance from its bullpen so far this year. Their relievers have a collective ERA of 4.55 on the season, a mark that places them 27th out of the 30 clubs in the league. All of these conversations were happening before Steele’s departure today. If that proves to be an injury of any significance, it would only stretch their staff further, though they will surely be hoping it proves to be something minor that passes quickly.

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